Thailand To Continue Rice Scheme For 3Rd Year

[aTomsLife]

Didn't see this story posted on the homepage. If I'm violating any rules, please pardon me.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/27/thailand-rice-scheme-idUSL3N0E80PT20130527?feedType=RSS&feedName=nonCyclicalConsumerGoodsSector&rpc=43

Reuters story confirms Thailand's plan to continue rice scheme into 3rd year, to the advantage of its main competitors, India and Vietnam. The article also mentions that the foreign governments Thailand has claimed to have sold rice to are denying the deals. Current losses estimated at 6 billion U.S.

This is madness. The real kicker is that once Thailand releases their surpluses, prices will drop dramatically, thus losing even more money.

[tim armstrong]

I don't get it. I live deep in the heart of rice growing territory, and almost everyday I see yet another expensive new red Kubota for use on the same sized acreage that the farmer had 10 years ago. Sure with the advent of more costly chemicals he can now get 3 crops per year. But he has to sell at a fixed and inflated price to the same stockpile. he thinks its good because there is more money around. Forget the fact that his costs have doubled, and his debt has doubled. Lets just live for today. So sad the farmer is being conned. Like all bubbles this one will burst - sometime soon.

[aTomsLife]

I see what you're saying. Assuming these farmers are taking out loans against their lands, It begs to reason a lot of family farms will be seized when this thing implodes.

I don't know what percentage of Thailand's rice is currently grown by corporations, but if things go rotten, corporations are going to be able to buy up the lands seized by the banks. This could potentially change Thailand's social dynamic for life, as, like what happened in the USA, families are pushed from their agrarian lifestyles.

Of course I'm just speculating, but it appears these farmers have already experienced lifestyle creep: they've earned more money for their rice and accordingly have made more exorbitant purchases, without understanding that their current incomes are unsustainable. And like the article says, once Thailand releases their stockpiles, the price for rice will plummet do to oversupply. This will not be a small bump in the road.

[GuestHouse]

Why is anyone suprised. Free money is an addictive drug. The farmers are addicted to receiving free money, the government (our man in Dubai) is addicted to giving free money.

The end result will be at least five fold:

1. damage to the Thai rice industry
2. high national debt to be cleared
3. large quantities of rice lost to rotting
4. corruption (fiscal and political)
5. the transfer of large tracts of land from rice farmers to Bangkok businessmen

Edited May 27, 2013 by GuestHouse

[473geo]

Pleased the government can afford to continue the subsidy, more money into the 'home' market place to stimuate the economy as the demand for exports slows

[AyG]

I see what you're saying. Assuming these farmers are taking out loans against their lands, It begs to reason a lot of family farms will be seized when this thing implodes.

Most Thai farmers don't actually own their land, they rent it. A small number of families owns most of Thailand's agricultural land. The rent is often includes the landowner getting a proportion (typically half) the rice produced. I doubt you'll see farms being seized, but you may see farmers being kicked off the land they've farmed for many years.

[thaicbr]

Pleased the government can afford to continue the subsidy, more money into the 'home' market place to stimuate the economy as the demand for exports slows

But Geo. They can't. And export demand has slowed because there is NO rice (or very little) rice being bought by the exporters. No rice for exporters means........ no exports.

Pretty much ALL the rice produced is going into the governments scheme with very little being exported by the government. And then when it is there are reports that about 30% was rotten. Go figure. Thailand once had the largest export of rice at world prices...... now?????

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

[tim armstrong]

Thailand was only overtaken by India as the largest exporter in the world last year. But for sure rice is a durable little grain and maybe the stockpile will be good for a few more years. Maybe the government will create a rice futures market ? But I agree there is bound to be land changing hands. But in our area, Nakhon Sawan, which is one of the largest rice growing areas, the land is mainly owned by small farmers in blocks of 20 -100rai. They will just shift to sugar cane.

[aTomsLife]

According to the article, Thailand fell from 1st to 3rd (Vietnam is the 2nd biggest), yet they see fit to continue with this disaster of a policy, and even claim they'll soon be first again. It's not impossible, but they won't be taking the top spot back unless they start selling rice at a deep discount.

[trainman34014]

The Morons running the country have never heard of the old saying....'When you are in a big hole, the best thing to do is stop digging' !

[ozziebloke]

Thailand was only overtaken by India as the largest exporter in the world last year. But for sure rice is a durable little grain and maybe the stockpile will be good for a few more years. Maybe the government will create a rice futures market ? But I agree there is bound to be land changing hands. But in our area, Nakhon Sawan, which is one of the largest rice growing areas, the land is mainly owned by small farmers in blocks of 20 -100rai. They will just shift to sugar cane.

And don't forget that most of the 1st world countries subsidise all their agriculture! For me it looks like the government is looking into the future rather than just now here is a report that might backup what i think.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jun/15/food-prices-rise-un-report

[aTomsLife]

Thailand was only overtaken by India as the largest exporter in the world last year. But for sure rice is a durable little grain and maybe the stockpile will be good for a few more years. Maybe the government will create a rice futures market ? But I agree there is bound to be land changing hands. But in our area, Nakhon Sawan, which is one of the largest rice growing areas, the land is mainly owned by small farmers in blocks of 20 -100rai. They will just shift to sugar cane.

And don't forget that most of the 1st world countries subsidise all their agriculture! For me it looks like the government is looking into the future rather than just now here is a report that might backup what i think.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jun/15/food-prices-rise-un-report

So you think the scheme is a good idea? Please explain, if you will.

I read the article, and I see what you're getting at. But, 1, the article makes no mention of an increase in the price of rice. And, 2, how long can rice be stored for in tropical temperatures before it grows mold?

[GuestHouse]

Its mot simply a matter of world ranking in rice exports.

The scheme rewards production of weight, not quality.

Without any of the other corruption that the scheme promotes, quantity at the cost of quality can only further undermine the Thai Rice' brand.

[ozziebloke]

Thailand was only overtaken by India as the largest exporter in the world last year. But for sure rice is a durable little grain and maybe the stockpile will be good for a few more years. Maybe the government will create a rice futures market ? But I agree there is bound to be land changing hands. But in our area, Nakhon Sawan, which is one of the largest rice growing areas, the land is mainly owned by small farmers in blocks of 20 -100rai. They will just shift to sugar cane.

And don't forget that most of the 1st world countries subsidise all their agriculture! For me it looks like the government is looking into the future rather than just now here is a report that might backup what i think.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jun/15/food-prices-rise-un-report

So you think the scheme is a good idea? Please explain, if you will.

I read the article, and I see what you're getting at. But, 1, the article makes no mention of an increase in the price of rice. And, 2, how long can rice be stored for in tropical temperatures before it grows mold?

It quotes hard grains and rice the same as wheat, barley, sorgum can be stored for years it treated correctly

[GuestHouse]

^ is that why the Thai government have threatened members of the opposition parties with prosecution if they attempt to gain access to rice stores in order to undertake inspections?

[thaicbr]

 

Thailand was only overtaken by India as the largest exporter in the world last year. But for sure rice is a durable little grain and maybe the stockpile will be good for a few more years. Maybe the government will create a rice futures market ? But I agree there is bound to be land changing hands. But in our area, Nakhon Sawan, which is one of the largest rice growing areas, the land is mainly owned by small farmers in blocks of 20 -100rai. They will just shift to sugar cane.

And don't forget that most of the 1st world countries subsidise all their agriculture! For me it looks like the government is looking into the future rather than just now here is a report that might backup what i think.  

 

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jun/15/food-prices-rise-un-report

 

So you think the scheme is a good idea?  Please explain, if you will.  

 

I read the article, and I see what you're getting at.  But, 1,  the article makes no mention of an increase in the price of rice.  And, 2, how long can rice be stored for in tropical temperatures before it grows mold?   

It quotes hard grains and rice the same as wheat, barley, sorgum can be stored for years it treated correctly

If stored correctly. Also note. It would seem that they STILL have some rice from the original Thai rak Thai government back in 2003.

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[ozziebloke]

@thaicbr

Cant know! just adding some reason thats all. Iv'e been farming for the
last 30 years growing grains and just sharing some knowledge from those years

[chiangmaikelly]

^ is that why the Thai government have threatened members of the opposition parties with prosecution if they attempt to gain access to rice stores in order to undertake inspections?

BANGKOK, 24 May 2013 (NNT) – Japan is set to order more rice from Thailand due to its confidence in the quality of Thai grain, according to the Commerce Ministry. last year’s exports of rice to Japan totaled around 190,000 tons.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/centerweb/newsen/NewsDetail?NT01_NewsID=WNECO5605240010001

[thaicbr]

@thaicbr

Cant know! just adding some reason thats all. Iv'e been farming for the

last 30 years growing grains and just sharing some knowledge from those years

That's cool. Can I ask how you stored grains. Some pictures would help. Did you have to dry your grains before storage?

Thanks

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

[farang000999]

Thai rice #1, very good.

[apetley]

^ is that why the Thai government have threatened members of the opposition parties with prosecution if they attempt to gain access to rice stores in order to undertake inspections?

BANGKOK, 24 May 2013 (NNT) – Japan is set to order more rice from Thailand due to its confidence in the quality of Thai grain, according to the Commerce Ministry. last year’s exports of rice to Japan totaled around 190,000 tons.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/centerweb/newsen/NewsDetail?NT01_NewsID=WNECO5605240010001

That article is short on detail and the parts you quote miss out the important piece in the middle.

Japanese Sake brewers want 20,000 tonnes which is about 0.1% of that in storage and Thailand has asked Japan to buy more than the 190,000 tonnes they bought last year. Now if Japan had said 'we will buy our full quota' in 2013 that would have been news but for Thailand to ask them to seems to smack a little of desperation to me. If it's one thing the Japs are aware of it is how much is allowed to be imported into their own country.

Sent from my GT-I9003 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Edited May 28, 2013 by apetley

[GuestHouse]

^ is that why the Thai government have threatened members of the opposition parties with prosecution if they attempt to gain access to rice stores in order to undertake inspections?

BANGKOK, 24 May 2013 (NNT) – Japan is set to order more rice from Thailand due to its confidence in the quality of Thai grain, according to the Commerce Ministry. last year’s exports of rice to Japan totaled around 190,000 tons.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/centerweb/newsen/NewsDetail?NT01_NewsID=WNECO5605240010001

Don't hang your hat on that deal. Thai government officials and politicians have a proven track record of making false claims of rice deals about to be done biut which turn out to be totally ficticious.

The Thai/Chinese Government to Government rice deal that turned out to be not a deal at all being a prime example.

Edited May 28, 2013 by GuestHouse

[NeverSure]

That article is confusing. Its says that Thailand has spent US$13.70 billion on the scheme. That's far higher than reported in Thai news. It also say that losses would be "at least $6 billion."

Now, it said that claims of export sales to other countries are false. No surprise. Then it says that Thailand exported 6.9 million tons in 2012. Knowing that Thailand paid somewhere between 50% and 100% more than the rice is worth, and knowing some export claims are false, where is this 6.9 million tons of sales from? Did Thailand actually sell a lot of rice at a huge loss? If so, who paid for the loss?

With Thailand outright lying about sales, and apparently about the cost, who can make statements? We had another thread where the revolving fund at the Thai government owned Agricultural Bank was 500 billion baht. It also said they needed to borrow more - another 200 bil.

If they've spent $13.70 billion dollars and are sitting on huge stockpiles, and are going to do it again, how much will that be? How will they pay for it with the Agricultural Bank already under water from what they've done so far?

My next question to them would be "who audits your banks?" Then "where did you get the money for the new car scheme when you reported recently that you were running out of money for it, and then suddenly found it?"

Who audits your banks? How much do you owe them? We had another thread saying that two government owned banks need bailouts. How bad is it? Where's that money coming from?

These loans don't show up in your reported government deficits. Where do you really stand? How deeply onto your lips are you?

Edited May 28, 2013 by NeverSure

[ozziebloke]

@thaicbr

Cant know! just adding some reason thats all. Iv'e been farming for the

last 30 years growing grains and just sharing some knowledge from those years

That's cool. Can I ask how you stored grains. Some pictures would help. Did you have to dry your grains before storage?

Thanks

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

Heres just a google page that you can see how we store grain here in Aus

http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1366&bih=665&q=grain+storage+australia&oq=grain+storage+australia&gs_l=img.3..0i24.1524.11637.0.12645.23.13.0.10.10.0.372.3158.1j2j7j3.13.0...0.0...1ac.1.14.img.Domc5T0Yegw#hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=bulk+grain+storage+australia&oq=bulk+grain+storage+australia&gs_l=img.3...756460.767771.16.769578.20.18.0.0.0.0.2001.6254.6j2j4j2j0j2j1j9-1.18.0...0.0...1c.1.14.img.HVTFSXR8E6Y&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&bvm=bv.47008514,d.aGc&fp=3ddba2defc5f768b&biw=1366&bih=665

[NeverSure]

@thaicbr

Cant know! just adding some reason thats all. Iv'e been farming for the

last 30 years growing grains and just sharing some knowledge from those years

That's cool. Can I ask how you stored grains. Some pictures would help. Did you have to dry your grains before storage?

Thanks

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

Heres just a google page that you can see how we store grain here in Aus

http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1366&bih=665&q=grain+storage+australia&oq=grain+storage+australia&gs_l=img.3..0i24.1524.11637.0.12645.23.13.0.10.10.0.372.3158.1j2j7j3.13.0...0.0...1ac.1.14.img.Domc5T0Yegw#hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=bulk+grain+storage+australia&oq=bulk+grain+storage+australia&gs_l=img.3...756460.767771.16.769578.20.18.0.0.0.0.2001.6254.6j2j4j2j0j2j1j9-1.18.0...0.0...1c.1.14.img.HVTFSXR8E6Y&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&bvm=bv.47008514,d.aGc&fp=3ddba2defc5f768b&biw=1366&bih=665

What do you do in your more humid areas to control moisture? The biggest issues in storing grain are moisture, insects, temperature (not letting it get too hot) and of course initial quality. Link

In humid areas that I'm familiar with, they have to move it out by next year.

[ozziebloke]

@thaicbr

Cant know! just adding some reason thats all. Iv'e been farming for the

last 30 years growing grains and just sharing some knowledge from those years

That's cool. Can I ask how you stored grains. Some pictures would help. Did you have to dry your grains before storage?

Thanks

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

Heres just a google page that you can see how we store grain here in Aus

http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1366&bih=665&q=grain+storage+australia&oq=grain+storage+australia&gs_l=img.3..0i24.1524.11637.0.12645.23.13.0.10.10.0.372.3158.1j2j7j3.13.0...0.0...1ac.1.14.img.Domc5T0Yegw#hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=bulk+grain+storage+australia&oq=bulk+grain+storage+australia&gs_l=img.3...756460.767771.16.769578.20.18.0.0.0.0.2001.6254.6j2j4j2j0j2j1j9-1.18.0...0.0...1c.1.14.img.HVTFSXR8E6Y&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&bvm=bv.47008514,d.aGc&fp=3ddba2defc5f768b&biw=1366&bih=665

What do you do in your more humid areas to control moisture? The biggest issues in storing grain are moisture, insects, temperature (not letting it get too hot) and of course initial quality. Link

In humid areas that I'm familiar with, they have to move it out by next year.

The issues your are talking about moisture and temperture are when temperaturse rise and fall with the seasons. In our northern areas the temps are more constant and ventilation is very important as well as fumigation regularily

[NeverSure]

Heres just a google page that you can see how we store grain here in Aus

http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1366&bih=665&q=grain+storage+australia&oq=grain+storage+australia&gs_l=img.3..0i24.1524.11637.0.12645.23.13.0.10.10.0.372.3158.1j2j7j3.13.0...0.0...1ac.1.14.img.Domc5T0Yegw#hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=bulk+grain+storage+australia&oq=bulk+grain+storage+australia&gs_l=img.3...756460.767771.16.769578.20.18.0.0.0.0.2001.6254.6j2j4j2j0j2j1j9-1.18.0...0.0...1c.1.14.img.HVTFSXR8E6Y&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&bvm=bv.47008514,d.aGc&fp=3ddba2defc5f768b&biw=1366&bih=665

What do you do in your more humid areas to control moisture? The biggest issues in storing grain are moisture, insects, temperature (not letting it get too hot) and of course initial quality. Link

In humid areas that I'm familiar with, they have to move it out by next year.

The issues your are talking about moisture and temperture are when temperaturse rise and fall with the seasons. In our northern areas the temps are more constant and ventilation is very important as well as fumigation regularily

Thanks. Somehow I don't think that Thailand's storage is that sophisticated. That's nice looking equipment in those pictures.

I don't have any experience in storing rice. Mine is all wheat but I've seen it ruined by moisture from the air.

[ozziebloke]

@ NeverSure "Thanks. Somehow I don't think that Thailand's storage is that sophisticated. That's nice looking equipment in those pictures.I don't have any experience in storing rice. Mine is all wheat but I've seen it ruined by moisture from the air."

Storing any grain is exactly the same It depends on when harvesting, the moisture content is correct off the header which is usually computer controlled here unlike I'm sure is not the case in Thailand. After that it's just controlling ventilation and pest infestation. Moisture content can range between 12 and 20% depending on the grain and depending on air drying or not. But usually here grain is harvested goes directly to get tested and graded then put straight into storage.

[tim armstrong]

From previous posts, I don't think storage is such a big issue, but I could be wrong. If there is a major drought in some other rice growing country eg China, which does happen regularly, then Thailand can off load some of the stockpile. But this whole thing is really about some of the deeper political issues and the balance of power and money between HiSo and the rest which we can't really talk about. The next 5 years in Thailand will sure be interesting.

[thaicbr]

From previous posts, I don't think storage is such a big issue, but I could be wrong. If there is a major drought in some other rice growing country eg China, which does happen regularly, then Thailand can off load some of the stockpile. But this whole thing is really about some of the deeper political issues and the balance of power and money  between HiSo and the rest which we can't really talk about. The next 5 years in Thailand will sure be interesting.

I think LONG term storage is definitely a problem. As in they are running out of space so more and more rice is being stored in less than ideal conditions. Also in the last delivery to Nigeria over 30% was unfit for human consumption ( maybe the Nigerians have higher standards)

The other thing is the farmers have grown to expect this level of profit but unfortunately it would seem that generally they haven't raised their quality only quantity. Big mistake

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