Thailand To Continue Rice Scheme For 3Rd Year

[scorecard]

I see what you're saying. Assuming these farmers are taking out loans against their lands, It begs to reason a lot of family farms will be seized when this thing implodes.

I don't know what percentage of Thailand's rice is currently grown by corporations, but if things go rotten, corporations are going to be able to buy up the lands seized by the banks. This could potentially change Thailand's social dynamic for life, as, like what happened in the USA, families are pushed from their agrarian lifestyles.

Of course I'm just speculating, but it appears these farmers have already experienced lifestyle creep: they've earned more money for their rice and accordingly have made more exorbitant purchases, without understanding that their current incomes are unsustainable. And like the article says, once Thailand releases their stockpiles, the price for rice will plummet do to oversupply. This will not be a small bump in the road.

Quote: "don't know what percentage of Thailand's rice is currently grown by corporations, but if things go rotten, corporations are going to be able to buy up the lands seized by the banks. This could potentially change Thailand's social dynamic for life, as, like what happened in the USA, families are pushed from their agrarian lifestyles."

This a thorny complex issue. One argument is that small scale rice farming cannot produce enough income to support a family in a more modern lifestyle, which of course pretty much everybody aspires to. Those who want to continue in a 'survival' mode, well that's their choice of course.

So does that mean that the only way to gain some strong income from rice farming is large scale, computerized modern techniques, more / better knowledge about marketing and finance, all more likely to be held within larger family owned big land ownership or corporations.

But of course this all pushes the small scale (often very small scale) farmer off the land.

Perhaps long-term will that get many farmers into more regular employment / into industry? Is that the ultimate answer?

Quite a puzzle.

[thaicbr]

I see what you're saying.  Assuming these farmers are taking out loans against their lands, It begs to reason a lot of family farms will be seized when this thing implodes.  

 

I don't know what percentage of Thailand's rice is currently grown by corporations, but if things go rotten, corporations are going to be able to buy up the lands seized by the banks.  This could potentially change Thailand's social dynamic for life, as, like what happened in the USA, families are pushed from their agrarian lifestyles.  

 

Of course I'm just speculating, but it appears these farmers have already experienced lifestyle creep: they've earned more money for their rice and accordingly have made more exorbitant purchases, without understanding that their current incomes are unsustainable.  And like the article says, once Thailand releases their stockpiles, the price for rice will plummet do to oversupply.  This will not be a small bump in the road.

 

 

Quote:   "don't know what percentage of Thailand's rice is currently grown by corporations, but if things go rotten, corporations are going to be able to buy up the lands seized by the banks.  This could potentially change Thailand's social dynamic for life, as, like what happened in the USA, families are pushed from their agrarian lifestyles."

 

This a thorny complex issue. One argument is that small scale rice farming cannot produce enough income to support a family in a more modern lifestyle, which of course pretty much everybody aspires to. Those who want to continue in a 'survival' mode, well that's their choice of course.

 

So does that mean that the only way to gain some strong income from rice farming is large scale, computerized modern techniques, more / better knowledge about marketing and finance, all more likely to be held within larger family owned big land ownership or corporations.

 

But of course this all pushes the small scale (often very small scale) farmer off the land.

 

Perhaps long-term will that get many farmers into more regular employment / into industry? Is that the ultimate answer?

 

Quite a puzzle. 

Cooperatives are the answer. Putting money into ways that the farmers can help themselves and still keep community's together. Works well in other countries and in some parts of Thailand. Just expand. Give the farmers education and control.

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[ozziebloke]

I see what you're saying. Assuming these farmers are taking out loans against their lands, It begs to reason a lot of family farms will be seized when this thing implodes.

I don't know what percentage of Thailand's rice is currently grown by corporations, but if things go rotten, corporations are going to be able to buy up the lands seized by the banks. This could potentially change Thailand's social dynamic for life, as, like what happened in the USA, families are pushed from their agrarian lifestyles.

Of course I'm just speculating, but it appears these farmers have already experienced lifestyle creep: they've earned more money for their rice and accordingly have made more exorbitant purchases, without understanding that their current incomes are unsustainable. And like the article says, once Thailand releases their stockpiles, the price for rice will plummet do to oversupply. This will not be a small bump in the road.

Quote: "don't know what percentage of Thailand's rice is currently grown by corporations, but if things go rotten, corporations are going to be able to buy up the lands seized by the banks. This could potentially change Thailand's social dynamic for life, as, like what happened in the USA, families are pushed from their agrarian lifestyles."

This a thorny complex issue. One argument is that small scale rice farming cannot produce enough income to support a family in a more modern lifestyle, which of course pretty much everybody aspires to. Those who want to continue in a 'survival' mode, well that's their choice of course.

So does that mean that the only way to gain some strong income from rice farming is large scale, computerized modern techniques, more / better knowledge about marketing and finance, all more likely to be held within larger family owned big land ownership or corporations.

But of course this all pushes the small scale (often very small scale) farmer off the land.

Perhaps long-term will that get many farmers into more regular employment / into industry? Is that the ultimate answer?

Quite a puzzle.

Cooperatives are the answer. Putting money into ways that the farmers can help themselves and still keep community's together. Works well in other countries and in some parts of Thailand. Just expand. Give the farmers education and control.

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

Corporate financing and real farmers leasing seems to be the modern way of farming and I'm all for it.

[chiangmaikelly]

Heres just a google page that you can see how we store grain here in Aus

http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1366&bih=665&q=grain+storage+australia&oq=grain+storage+australia&gs_l=img.3..0i24.1524.11637.0.12645.23.13.0.10.10.0.372.3158.1j2j7j3.13.0...0.0...1ac.1.14.img.Domc5T0Yegw#hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=bulk+grain+storage+australia&oq=bulk+grain+storage+australia&gs_l=img.3...756460.767771.16.769578.20.18.0.0.0.0.2001.6254.6j2j4j2j0j2j1j9-1.18.0...0.0...1c.1.14.img.HVTFSXR8E6Y&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&bvm=bv.47008514,d.aGc&fp=3ddba2defc5f768b&biw=1366&bih=665

What do you do in your more humid areas to control moisture? The biggest issues in storing grain are moisture, insects, temperature (not letting it get too hot) and of course initial quality. Link

In humid areas that I'm familiar with, they have to move it out by next year.

The issues your are talking about moisture and temperture are when temperaturse rise and fall with the seasons. In our northern areas the temps are more constant and ventilation is very important as well as fumigation regularily

Thanks. Somehow I don't think that Thailand's storage is that sophisticated. That's nice looking equipment in those pictures.

I don't have any experience in storing rice. Mine is all wheat but I've seen it ruined by moisture from the air.

http://cn-thai.co.th/en/?portfolio=capital-cereals-company-silos-feedmill-ayutthaya-thailand

[thaicbr]

 

 

 

Heres just a google page that you can see how we store grain here in Aus

 

http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1366&bih=665&q=grain+storage+australia&oq=grain+storage+australia&gs_l=img.3..0i24.1524.11637.0.12645.23.13.0.10.10.0.372.3158.1j2j7j3.13.0...0.0...1ac.1.14.img.Domc5T0Yegw#hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=bulk+grain+storage+australia&oq=bulk+grain+storage+australia&gs_l=img.3...756460.767771.16.769578.20.18.0.0.0.0.2001.6254.6j2j4j2j0j2j1j9-1.18.0...0.0...1c.1.14.img.HVTFSXR8E6Y&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&bvm=bv.47008514,d.aGc&fp=3ddba2defc5f768b&biw=1366&bih=665

 

What do you do in your more humid areas to control moisture? The biggest issues in storing grain are moisture, insects, temperature (not letting it get too hot) and of course initial quality.  Link

 

In humid areas that I'm familiar with, they have to move it out by next year.

The issues your are talking about moisture and temperture are when temperaturse rise and fall with the seasons. In our northern areas the temps are more constant and ventilation is very important as well as fumigation regularily

 

Thanks. Somehow I don't think that Thailand's storage is that sophisticated. That's nice looking equipment in those pictures.

 

I don't have any experience in storing rice. Mine is all wheat but I've seen it ruined by moisture from the air.

http://cn-thai.co.th/en/?portfolio=capital-cereals-company-silos-feedmill-ayutthaya-thailand

Jeeze. Again with this private company picture.

Here is the reality. Government warehouse.

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

[thaicbr]

And more. This is the standard government warehouse way of storing rice in Thailand. Its good for a few years at best. With deteriorating rice year in year out.

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[aTomsLife]

Thailand was only overtaken by India as the largest exporter in the world last year. But for sure rice is a durable little grain and maybe the stockpile will be good for a few more years. Maybe the government will create a rice futures market ? But I agree there is bound to be land changing hands. But in our area, Nakhon Sawan, which is one of the largest rice growing areas, the land is mainly owned by small farmers in blocks of 20 -100rai. They will just shift to sugar cane.

And don't forget that most of the 1st world countries subsidise all their agriculture! For me it looks like the government is looking into the future rather than just now here is a report that might backup what i think.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jun/15/food-prices-rise-un-report

Yes "1st World" countries do subsidize their agriculture -- to the chagrin of the rest of the world. I'll explain in a moment. One would think Thailand would follow the blueprint, but alas they're doing it wrong.

For example, the U.S. government subsidizes agriculture, thus enabling distributors to sell their crops below what would otherwise be market value, and still turn a profit. In effect, the U.S. disincentivizes others to grow the same crops, or at least produce the quantities the market would otherwise demand. This in turn reduces supply, thus over time increases the price that U.S. distributors can charge. In essence they corner the market.

Thailand, on the other hand, is attempting to pass the cost of the rice subsidy onto the consumer. This is suicide. As shown, they're simply losing business to India and Vietnam.

[NeverSure]

http://cn-thai.co.th/en/?portfolio=capital-cereals-company-silos-feedmill-ayutthaya-thailand

Kelly, I really don't know what drives you to defend even the Thailand rice scheme. There is no good news about it, and in the shadows there is talk of a real mess. We have some real numbers and they are shocking and scary.

Posting that picture again borders on fraud. You've already been told in another thread, that's a corporate wholesaler's warehouse and they aren't likely to buy more rice than they have good storage for.

If you want to believe you can fool us into thinking that's how the Thai government's massive stocks of rice are stored, go ahead and keep posting it. There's no one here who doesn't already know better.

[chiangmaikelly]

http://cn-thai.co.th/en/?portfolio=capital-cereals-company-silos-feedmill-ayutthaya-thailand

Kelly, I really don't know what drives you to defend even the Thailand rice scheme. There is no good news about it, and in the shadows there is talk of a real mess. We have some real numbers and they are shocking and scary.

Posting that picture again borders on fraud. You've already been told in another thread, that's a corporate wholesaler's warehouse and they aren't likely to buy more rice than they have good storage for.

If you want to believe you can fool us into thinking that's how the Thai government's massive stocks of rice are stored, go ahead and keep posting it. There's no one here who doesn't already know better.

You wrote, "Thanks. Somehow I don't think that Thailand's storage is that sophisticated. That's nice looking equipment in those pictures. I don't have any experience in storing rice. Mine is all wheat but I've seen it ruined by moisture from the air."

I answered your querstion with a photo. I guess I should have given you a written answer too. In answer to your question about the sophistication of Thailand's rice storage, "Yes it is state of the art depending on where you look. Thailand has the capability to store rice in recently built high tech warehouses." What percent is stored in silos as in the photo, I don't know. You can google Thailand rice silos.

[thaicbr]

http://cn-thai.co.th/en/?portfolio=capital-cereals-company-silos-feedmill-ayutthaya-thailand

 

Kelly, I really don't know what drives you to defend even the Thailand rice scheme. There is no good news about it, and in the shadows there is talk of a real mess. We have some real numbers and they are shocking and scary.

 

Posting that picture again borders on fraud. You've already been told in another thread, that's a corporate wholesaler's warehouse and they aren't likely to buy more rice than they have good storage for.

 

If you want to believe you can fool us into thinking that's how the Thai government's massive stocks of rice are stored, go ahead and keep posting it. There's no one here who doesn't already know better.

You wrote, "Thanks. Somehow I don't think that Thailand's storage is that sophisticated. That's nice looking equipment in those pictures. I don't have any experience in storing rice. Mine is all wheat but I've seen it ruined by moisture from the air."

 

I answered your querstion with a photo.  I guess I should have given you a written answer too.  In answer to your question about the sophistication of Thailand's rice storage, "Yes it is state of the art depending on where you look.  Thailand has the capability to store rice in recently built high tech warehouses."  What percent is stored in silos as in the photo, I don't know.  You can google Thailand rice silos.  

 

Glad you mentioned it..

http://www.thairiceexporters.or.th/Int%20news/News_2010/int_news_130110-1.html

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[thaicbr]

Or this.

http://www.thairiceexporters.or.th/Int%20news/News_2010/int_news_130110-1.html

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[thaicbr]

Sorry about the last one. Android app not allowing edit.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201211300512.html

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[chiangmaikelly]

Good articles but we can't talk about them because of the source. Too bad. I think it brings to the point that Thailand has a variety of storage some good and some bad. Those who would paint Thailand as a 3rd world backwater like Burma are off the mark nor is it Europe.

[mancub]

Those warehouses may be needed soon to store palm oil and rubber if the farmers in the South get their way !

From the Krabi forum May 16th http://www.phuketgazette.net/phuket_news/2013/Krabi-farmers-threaten-airport-blockade-21060.html

[thaicbr]

Good articles but we can't talk about them because of the source.  Too bad.  I think it brings to the point that Thailand has a variety of storage some good and some bad.  Those who would paint Thailand as a 3rd world backwater like Burma are off the mark nor is it Europe. 

That's true enough. But why can't we talk about them?????

It also brings to the point that this rice scheme may well implode and actually destroy Thai rice exports for the foreseeable future.

Thailands rice exports were both quality and quantity... now?

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[chiangmaikelly]

Good articles but we can't talk about them because of the source. Too bad. I think it brings to the point that Thailand has a variety of storage some good and some bad. Those who would paint Thailand as a 3rd world backwater like Burma are off the mark nor is it Europe.

That's true enough. But why can't we talk about them?????

It also brings to the point that this rice scheme may well implode and actually destroy Thai rice exports for the foreseeable future.

Thailands rice exports were both quality and quantity... now?

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

Look at the bottom they are from the Bangkok Post. I think I read it right. How much rice can China use? How good a harvest will they have? Or you may be correct. My last point was only Thailand has both good and bad rice storage. And Ban Chang does not mean the house of elephants. Chang is the Thai word for silo.

[thaicbr]

Good articles but we can't talk about them because of the source.  Too bad.  I think it brings to the point that Thailand has a variety of storage some good and some bad.  Those who would paint Thailand as a 3rd world backwater like Burma are off the mark nor is it Europe. 

That's true enough. But why can't we talk about them?????

It also brings to the point that this rice scheme may well implode and actually destroy Thai rice exports for the foreseeable future.

Thailands rice exports were both quality and quantity... now?

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

Look at the bottom they are from the Bangkok Post.  I think I read it right.  How much rice can China use?  How good a harvest will they have?  Or you may be correct.  My last point was only Thailand has both good and bad rice storage.  And Ban Chang does not mean the house of elephants.  Chang is the Thai word for silo. 

Nope. Neither of my links are Bkk post. And you are correct. The private companies generally have decent up to date storage. The government warehouse system generally does not.

But let's get away from that. Thailand is losing customers, some that have been buying from them for decades. And according to reports the delivered rice is deteriorating.. is that good?

And yes Thailand can hope for a natural disaster to help them. But that's not exactly good planning (or very nice )

Is it?

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[NeverSure]

Good articles but we can't talk about them because of the source. Too bad. I think it brings to the point that Thailand has a variety of storage some good and some bad. Those who would paint Thailand as a 3rd world backwater like Burma are off the mark nor is it Europe.

That's true enough. But why can't we talk about them?????

It also brings to the point that this rice scheme may well implode and actually destroy Thai rice exports for the foreseeable future.

Thailands rice exports were both quality and quantity... now?

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

We can't talk about them only if it might teach Kelly something. It might damage his blinders.

ALL of the news about the Thai rice scheme is bad, and much is downright onerous. This is without going into the debt Thailand is running up for it. The debt now equals about 1/3 of what Thailand would like (but can't get due to a lousy credit rating) to borrow for high speed rail and bury the country in debt for 50 years.

But this borrowed rice money has to be paid now or there is fraud. A revolving fund can't just sit and grow. It's supposed to revolve by selling and clearing out, and then borrowing again for next time. But none has been paid as it increases.

Kelly will defend Thailand now matter the facts, so it's like spitting into the wind.

[chiangmaikelly]

Good articles but we can't talk about them because of the source. Too bad. I think it brings to the point that Thailand has a variety of storage some good and some bad. Those who would paint Thailand as a 3rd world backwater like Burma are off the mark nor is it Europe.

That's true enough. But why can't we talk about them?????

It also brings to the point that this rice scheme may well implode and actually destroy Thai rice exports for the foreseeable future.

Thailands rice exports were both quality and quantity... now?

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

We can't talk about them only if it might teach Kelly something. It might damage his blinders.

ALL of the news about the Thai rice scheme is bad, and much is downright onerous. This is without going into the debt Thailand is running up for it. The debt now equals about 1/3 of what Thailand would like (but can't get due to a lousy credit rating) to borrow for high speed rail and bury the country in debt for 50 years.

But this borrowed rice money has to be paid now or there is fraud. A revolving fund can't just sit and grow. It's supposed to revolve by selling and clearing out, and then borrowing again for next time. But none has been paid as it increases.

Kelly will defend Thailand now matter the facts, so it's like spitting into the wind.

Not true the 2nd link is source Bangkok Post so I won't discuss it. Sorry.

[NeverSure]

Good articles but we can't talk about them because of the source. Too bad. I think it brings to the point that Thailand has a variety of storage some good and some bad. Those who would paint Thailand as a 3rd world backwater like Burma are off the mark nor is it Europe.

That's true enough. But why can't we talk about them?????

It also brings to the point that this rice scheme may well implode and actually destroy Thai rice exports for the foreseeable future.

Thailands rice exports were both quality and quantity... now?

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

We can't talk about them only if it might teach Kelly something. It might damage his blinders.

ALL of the news about the Thai rice scheme is bad, and much is downright onerous. This is without going into the debt Thailand is running up for it. The debt now equals about 1/3 of what Thailand would like (but can't get due to a lousy credit rating) to borrow for high speed rail and bury the country in debt for 50 years.

But this borrowed rice money has to be paid now or there is fraud. A revolving fund can't just sit and grow. It's supposed to revolve by selling and clearing out, and then borrowing again for next time. But none has been paid as it increases.

Kelly will defend Thailand now matter the facts, so it's like spitting into the wind.

Not true the 2nd link is source Bangkok Post so I won't discuss it. Sorry.

What difference doesn't it make what the news says? They parrot the same chit the government reports. Open your eyes.

[GuestHouse]

The photo posted by Chiangmaikelly is no way representative of the storage conditions within Thailand's Government Warehouses.

The photo is a Non Government rice processing plant (feedmill).

Anyone travelling the road from Nakhon Sawan to Phitsanolok will get a first hand view of Thai Government Rice Storage warehouses - Simple but extremely large warehouses in which rice is piled high to the roof in the main part of the building and packed in sacks in the annex.

Most have mountains of rice out front too. All on view because the doors are wide open.

Importantly these buildings are new - presumably meeting the latest Thai government specifications.

So don't be dragged sidewise on this, CMK posting photos of Thai private feed mills has nothing what so ever to do with the state of rice storage in Thai government warehouses.

Edited May 30, 2013 by GuestHouse

[chiangmaikelly]

The photo posted by Chiangmaikelly is no way representative of the storage conditions within Thailand's Government Warehouses.

The photo is a Non Government rice processing plant (feedmill).

Anyone travelling the road from Nakhon Sawan to Phitsanolok will get a first hand view of Thai Government Rice Storage warehouses - Simple but extremely large warehouses in which rice is piled high to the roof in the main part of the building and packed in sacks in the annex.

Most have mountains of rice out front too. All on view because the doors are wide open.

Importantly these buildings are new - presumably meeting the latest Thai government specifications.

So don't be dragged sidewise on this, CMK posting photos of Thai private feed mills has nothing what so ever to do with the state of rice storage in Thai government warehouses.

The buildings were built 7 years ago and the government leases space to store rice from many sources.

Edited May 30, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[GuestHouse]

The buildings were built 7 years ago and the government leases space to store rice from many sources.

And the doors are still wide open.

The photo of a private company feedmill, presented as a rice storage warehouse has been debunked while the evidence of how rice is actually stored in Thailand is there for anyone to see as they drive past.

But let's not argue about this CMK. The Thai government rice scheme has distorted the Thai rice market. The Thai rice shippers are themselves refuting the Thai government's claims that any significant rice exports are taking place, and the truth of rice rotting or not rotting will be revealed in only a matter of time.

Rice is not being exported while the government policy is causing more and more rice to be produced (most in Thailand, but significant amounts being shipped into Thailand from Cambodia and Laos).

The scheme is broken - the truth will out.

[pistachios]

I still don't understand the logic behind this rice scheme.

Ok so the government buys rice at a fixed price, much higher than the market's international price.

It seems that, if I'm not mistaken, the government was waiting for a rise of rice price to start selling its rice. Well this never happened, so what is the plan B?

Why don't they sell the rice at market price instead of letting it rot in huge warehouses? It's always better to take your loss early before losing everything right?

If its some anti dumping scheme of some sort, how did thailand manage to sell 7 millions tons last year anyway?

[chiangmaikelly]

The scheme is broken - the truth will out.

It has been two years. How long do you think it will take the folks to find out you are correct?

[ozziebloke]

Maybe this article by the FAO may help the discussion here

http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/rice-publications/rice-market-monitor-rmm/en/

[thaicbr]

The scheme is broken - the truth will out.

It has been two years.  How long do you think it will take the folks to find out you are correct? 

Probably only when the government starts being transparent about the operation and stops debunking everything said against it.... also it has actually been longer than 2 years. It seems there is STILL some rice in storage from the 2003 rice pledging.

Do you not remember when a Democrat Mp brought a bag of rice into parliament and opened it and poured the rotten rice on the floor. He was threatened with stealing the bag from the warehouse. But no further studies or investigation was allowed. When the Democrat led a press trip to the warehouse they were refused entry and the place had police stopping access.... so I have to say .. when the government becomes more transparent (or if worker's become pissed of enough to collect photo/video evidence.)

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

[GuestHouse]

The scheme is broken - the truth will out.

It has been two years. How long do you think it will take the folks to find out you are correct?

How long do you think the government can keep hiding the truth that Thai rice is being produced, stored and not sold on?

Already last year the Thai government were searching around looking for more space to store more rice.... the mountain is growing.

The Emperor's New Suit is looking pretty.

[ozziebloke]

The scheme is broken - the truth will out.

It has been two years. How long do you think it will take the folks to find out you are correct?

How long do you think the government can keep hiding the truth that Thai rice is being produced, stored and not sold on?

Already last year the Thai government were searching around looking for more space to store more rice.... the mountain is growing.

The Emperor's New Suit is looking pretty.

I havn't followed this topic, just joined in but what you state seems to be oposite what the FAO state

http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/rice-publications/rice-market-monitor-rmm/en/

[NeverSure]

The scheme is broken - the truth will out.

It has been two years. How long do you think it will take the folks to find out you are correct?

How long do you think the government can keep hiding the truth that Thai rice is being produced, stored and not sold on?

Already last year the Thai government were searching around looking for more space to store more rice.... the mountain is growing.

The Emperor's New Suit is looking pretty.

I havn't followed this topic, just joined in but what you state seems to be oposite what the FAO state

http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/rice-publications/rice-market-monitor-rmm/en/

They get their figures from the Thai government. Check mate.

Thailand claims to have sold rice to other countries, but those countries deny it. Shippers working the ports say they haven't seen it. Some was sold to Africa and they had to throw out as much as 30% of it due to spoilage. If Thailand had sold all of that rice, why haven't they paid down the revolving fund loan at the Agricultural Bank, and instead said they need to raise the loan amount from 500 billion baht to 700 billion baht if even those numbers are truthful? 700 billion baht is a deal breaker. Thailand no way has that kind of money. But it owns the Agricultural Bank, and is using it as a piggy bank. The Agricultural Bank is technical broke from it.

The trick is to make it all look good, and keep the scheme running to be dealt with by the next administration, if they deal with it. This deficit spending for rice is off the books. It doesn't show in the official Thai deficit because the rice is considered an asset.

Yet they paid at least 50% more for it than market value when it was fresh, and now it is deteriorating from moisture and insects. So at best it's worth 50% of what they owe on it, if they could find a buyer which they haven't. If they sell it at market value they'll have to realize the loss, so in Thailand it's best to keep it and let it rot but still claim it as an asset with no loss. Thai banks aren't required to mark to market.

The truth is they've lost at least 500 billion baht on it even if they could sell it, and there's no way they have the money to cover that.