Thailand To Continue Rice Scheme For 3Rd Year

[GuestHouse]

Thai rice exports 2012 where 6.9million Tonnes (dubious government stats), 34% down from 2011 and all the while more land being put into rice production.

The Feb 2013 harvest came in at around 12 million tonnes, the summer harvest is expected to be around 7 million tonnes - Either Thais are consuming over 12 million tones a year or the rice is backing up in warehouses..... the government are awfully sensitive about their warehouses!

Thai Rice Exporters Association states Thai rice priced at over $500 a tonne, Vietnamese rice % circa $380 a tonne and Indian rice circa $415 a tonne. The price alone is not helping is it?

[chiangmaikelly]

It has been two years. How long do you think it will take the folks to find out you are correct?

How long do you think the government can keep hiding the truth that Thai rice is being produced, stored and not sold on?

Already last year the Thai government were searching around looking for more space to store more rice.... the mountain is growing.

The Emperor's New Suit is looking pretty.

I havn't followed this topic, just joined in but what you state seems to be oposite what the FAO state

http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/rice-publications/rice-market-monitor-rmm/en/

They get their figures from the Thai government. Check mate.

Thailand claims to have sold rice to other countries, but those countries deny it. Shippers working the ports say they haven't seen it. Some was sold to Africa and they had to throw out as much as 30% of it due to spoilage. If Thailand had sold all of that rice, why haven't they paid down the revolving fund loan at the Agricultural Bank, and instead said they need to raise the loan amount from 500 billion baht to 700 billion baht if even those numbers are truthful? 700 billion baht is a deal breaker. Thailand no way has that kind of money. But it owns the Agricultural Bank, and is using it as a piggy bank. The Agricultural Bank is technical broke from it.

The trick is to make it all look good, and keep the scheme running to be dealt with by the next administration, if they deal with it. This deficit spending for rice is off the books. It doesn't show in the official Thai deficit because the rice is considered an asset.

Yet they paid at least 50% more for it than market value when it was fresh, and now it is deteriorating from moisture and insects. So at best it's worth 50% of what they owe on it, if they could find a buyer which they haven't. If they sell it at market value they'll have to realize the loss, so in Thailand it's best to keep it and let it rot but still claim it as an asset with no loss. Thai banks aren't required to mark to market.

The truth is they've lost at least 500 billion baht on it even if they could sell it, and there's no way they have the money to cover that.

So how do you know they lost 500 billion if you don't know what the government rice figures are? Are you a Thai rice expert? Correct me if I am wrong but I think to know how much they lost you have to know how much they bought. Where do you get accurate figures on how much rice was purchased and at what price?

[chiangmaikelly]

Thai rice exports 2012 where 6.9million Tonnes (dubious government stats), 34% down from 2011 and all the while more land being put into rice production.

The Feb 2013 harvest came in at around 12 million tonnes, the summer harvest is expected to be around 7 million tonnes - Either Thais are consuming over 12 million tones a year or the rice is backing up in warehouses..... the government are awfully sensitive about their warehouses!

Thai Rice Exporters Association states Thai rice priced at over $500 a tonne, Vietnamese rice % circa $380 a tonne and Indian rice circa $415 a tonne. The price alone is not helping is it?

Maybe you know more about rice prices then anyone in the Thai government but if your knowledge is shared seems to me all the government has to do is short rice in the futures market to break even? Don't they hedge rice?

[NeverSure]

I havn't followed this topic, just joined in but what you state seems to be oposite what the FAO state

http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/rice-publications/rice-market-monitor-rmm/en/

They get their figures from the Thai government. Check mate.

Thailand claims to have sold rice to other countries, but those countries deny it. Shippers working the ports say they haven't seen it. Some was sold to Africa and they had to throw out as much as 30% of it due to spoilage. If Thailand had sold all of that rice, why haven't they paid down the revolving fund loan at the Agricultural Bank, and instead said they need to raise the loan amount from 500 billion baht to 700 billion baht if even those numbers are truthful? 700 billion baht is a deal breaker. Thailand no way has that kind of money. But it owns the Agricultural Bank, and is using it as a piggy bank. The Agricultural Bank is technical broke from it.

The trick is to make it all look good, and keep the scheme running to be dealt with by the next administration, if they deal with it. This deficit spending for rice is off the books. It doesn't show in the official Thai deficit because the rice is considered an asset.

Yet they paid at least 50% more for it than market value when it was fresh, and now it is deteriorating from moisture and insects. So at best it's worth 50% of what they owe on it, if they could find a buyer which they haven't. If they sell it at market value they'll have to realize the loss, so in Thailand it's best to keep it and let it rot but still claim it as an asset with no loss. Thai banks aren't required to mark to market.

The truth is they've lost at least 500 billion baht on it even if they could sell it, and there's no way they have the money to cover that.

So how do you know they lost 500 billion if you don't know what the government rice figures are? Are you a Thai rice expert? Correct me if I am wrong but I think to know how much they lost you have to know how much they bought. Where do you get accurate figures on how much rice was purchased and at what price?

Kelly, you have to follow all of the threads on the rice scheme here and read the links to keep up. It's well established in more than one news article that the government has borrowed 500 billion baht for the rice scheme, and needs to borrow another 200 billion. It's well known that other countries have denied the Thai government's claims of selling to them and that include China. It's well known that dock worker deny seeing shipments.

It's well known that the government is planning to continue the rice scam for at least another year so they will have another mountain of rice.

It has been widely reported that the African country had to throw out as much as 30% of the rice they bought which surely can't encourage others to buy any.

We've had at least a couple of links from the IMF saying that the rice stocks in the world are 35% greater than what's needed for consumption, equalling an enormous glut and low prices.

It's been widely reported even by the government that they paid at least 50% more for rice from the farmers than what the market is. It was widely claimed by the government that withholding rice sales would drive the price up but it backfired with record harvest in other countries and actual declines in prices despite lacking Thailand's rice.

All of those links to verify those statements have been posted more than once in threads on ThaiVisa and I'm tired of this.

I'm not answering you any more at all ever because you keep coming back with the same shit no matter the facts. That's all you get. And stop the <deleted> PM's. I don't have time for it.

[chiangmaikelly]

I havn't followed this topic, just joined in but what you state seems to be oposite what the FAO state

http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/rice-publications/rice-market-monitor-rmm/en/

They get their figures from the Thai government. Check mate.

Thailand claims to have sold rice to other countries, but those countries deny it. Shippers working the ports say they haven't seen it. Some was sold to Africa and they had to throw out as much as 30% of it due to spoilage. If Thailand had sold all of that rice, why haven't they paid down the revolving fund loan at the Agricultural Bank, and instead said they need to raise the loan amount from 500 billion baht to 700 billion baht if even those numbers are truthful? 700 billion baht is a deal breaker. Thailand no way has that kind of money. But it owns the Agricultural Bank, and is using it as a piggy bank. The Agricultural Bank is technical broke from it.

The trick is to make it all look good, and keep the scheme running to be dealt with by the next administration, if they deal with it. This deficit spending for rice is off the books. It doesn't show in the official Thai deficit because the rice is considered an asset.

Yet they paid at least 50% more for it than market value when it was fresh, and now it is deteriorating from moisture and insects. So at best it's worth 50% of what they owe on it, if they could find a buyer which they haven't. If they sell it at market value they'll have to realize the loss, so in Thailand it's best to keep it and let it rot but still claim it as an asset with no loss. Thai banks aren't required to mark to market.

The truth is they've lost at least 500 billion baht on it even if they could sell it, and there's no way they have the money to cover that.

So how do you know they lost 500 billion if you don't know what the government rice figures are? Are you a Thai rice expert? Correct me if I am wrong but I think to know how much they lost you have to know how much they bought. Where do you get accurate figures on how much rice was purchased and at what price?

Kelly, you have to follow all of the threads on the rice scheme here and read the links to keep up. It's well established in more than one news article that the government has borrowed 500 billion baht for the rice scheme, and needs to borrow another 200 billion. It's well known that other countries have denied the Thai government's claims of selling to them and that include China. It's well known that dock worker deny seeing shipments.

It's well known that the government is planning to continue the rice scam for at least another year so they will have another mountain of rice.

It has been widely reported that the African country had to throw out as much as 30% of the rice they bought which surely can't encourage others to buy any.

We've had at least a couple of links from the IMF saying that the rice stocks in the world are 35% greater than what's needed for consumption, equalling an enormous glut and low prices.

It's been widely reported even by the government that they paid at least 50% more for rice from the farmers than what the market is. It was widely claimed by the government that withholding rice sales would drive the price up but it backfired with record harvest in other countries and actual declines in prices despite lacking Thailand's rice.

All of those links to verify those statements have been posted more than once in threads on ThaiVisa and I'm tired of this.

I'm not answering you any more at all ever because you keep coming back with the same shit no matter the facts. That's all you get. And stop the <deleted> PM's. I don't have time for it.

To know how much the government is spending on the rice scheme the first thing anyone would have to know is how much rice was bought and how much rice was sold. Anything else is rumor.

[GuestHouse]

Thai rice exports 2012 where 6.9million Tonnes (dubious government stats), 34% down from 2011 and all the while more land being put into rice production.

The Feb 2013 harvest came in at around 12 million tonnes, the summer harvest is expected to be around 7 million tonnes - Either Thais are consuming over 12 million tones a year or the rice is backing up in warehouses..... the government are awfully sensitive about their warehouses!

Thai Rice Exporters Association states Thai rice priced at over $500 a tonne, Vietnamese rice % circa $380 a tonne and Indian rice circa $415 a tonne. The price alone is not helping is it?

Maybe you know more about rice prices then anyone in the Thai government but if your knowledge is shared seems to me all the government has to do is short rice in the futures market to break even? Don't they hedge rice?

Rice prices are available to anyone who wishes to seek out the data (they are not a secret).

The government may indeed 'hedge' the market, but they need the price to go up a long way before they break even, then they'd have to compete at that higher price with a quality product, not old poorly stored rice.

But that is not what the government are doing. They are simply buying more rice at prices above the market rate and storing long term in warehouses designed for short term storage while all the time concealing every piece of information regarding the Thai rice scheme they can.

I suggest you find an easier cause to apologize for. One not so obviously bent, broken and heading for complete failure.

[chiangmaikelly]

Thai rice exports 2012 where 6.9million Tonnes (dubious government stats), 34% down from 2011 and all the while more land being put into rice production.

The Feb 2013 harvest came in at around 12 million tonnes, the summer harvest is expected to be around 7 million tonnes - Either Thais are consuming over 12 million tones a year or the rice is backing up in warehouses..... the government are awfully sensitive about their warehouses!

Thai Rice Exporters Association states Thai rice priced at over $500 a tonne, Vietnamese rice % circa $380 a tonne and Indian rice circa $415 a tonne. The price alone is not helping is it?

Maybe you know more about rice prices then anyone in the Thai government but if your knowledge is shared seems to me all the government has to do is short rice in the futures market to break even? Don't they hedge rice?

Rice prices are available to anyone who wishes to seek out the data (they are not a secret).

The government may indeed 'hedge' the market, but they need the price to go up a long way before they break even, then they'd have to compete at that higher price with a quality product, not old poorly stored rice.

But that is not what the government are doing. They are simply buying more rice at prices above the market rate and storing long term in warehouses designed for short term storage while all the time concealing every piece of information regarding the Thai rice scheme they can.

I suggest you find an easier cause to apologize for. One not so obviously bent, broken and heading for complete failure.

I don't mean hedge long. I mean go short.

[ozziebloke]

@ NeverSure & GuestHouse

Take me at being a novice and truely not picking a fight but what you both are saying is at odds with what the world stats say. India exports are down, Vietnam stable over the last couple years other countries down.Comodity prices for rice up from 2011.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=rice&months=60

http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/rice-publications/rice-market-monitor-rmm/en/

[NeverSure]

@ NeverSure & GuestHouse

Take me at being a novice and truely not picking a fight but what you both are saying is at odds with what the world stats say. India exports are down, Vietnam stable over the last couple years other countries down.Comodity prices for rice up from 2011.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=rice&months=60

http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/rice-publications/rice-market-monitor-rmm/en/

I'm not going back over all of the threads we've had on the Thai rice scheme and posting all of the links one more time. You can read them if you wish.

Your own chart shows that the price of rice is down about 50% since 2008, all the while Thailand has been buying rice. They've been doing it since at least 2003. Some of their rice is getting very old. One country reported that they had to throw out as much as 30% of the Thai rice they bought. Other counties deny buying rice that Thailand claims they sold.

Thailand has been buying rice from farmers for at least 50% more than market value and sitting on it. Common sense and reports, one form a government who bought some say it is deteriorating.

Thai figures can't be believed because other countries and dock workers deny their claims of sales.

The paper reported that Thailand owes 500 billion baht to the agricultural bank, which it owns, for rice purchases and Thailand has reported that it needs another 200 billion baht if that number can be believed. That's massive, hidden off the books and frightening.

Now, if you want to do a thread search and verify all of this and follow the links for proof, you're welcome to it.

[NeverSure]

I'm unfollowing the topic because it's getting old, and I've posted what I can find multiple times.

[thaicbr]

 

 

 

It has been two years.  How long do you think it will take the folks to find out you are correct? 

How long do you think the government can keep hiding the truth that Thai rice is being produced, stored and not sold on?

 

Already last year the Thai government were searching around looking for more space to store more rice.... the mountain is growing.

 

The Emperor's New Suit is looking pretty.

I havn't followed this topic, just joined in but what you state seems to be oposite what the FAO state

http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/rice-publications/rice-market-monitor-rmm/en/

 

They get their figures from the Thai government. Check mate.

 

Thailand claims to have sold rice to other countries, but those countries deny it. Shippers working the ports say they haven't seen it. Some was sold to Africa and they had to throw out as much as 30% of it due to spoilage. If Thailand had sold all of that rice, why haven't they paid down the revolving fund loan at the Agricultural Bank, and instead said they need to raise the loan amount from 500 billion baht to 700 billion baht if even those numbers are truthful? 700 billion baht is a deal breaker. Thailand no way has that kind of money. But it owns the Agricultural Bank, and is using it as a piggy bank. The Agricultural Bank is technical broke from it.

 

The trick is to make it all look good, and keep the scheme running to be dealt with by the next administration, if they deal with it. This deficit spending for rice is off the books. It doesn't show in the official Thai deficit because the rice is considered an asset.

 

Yet they paid at least 50% more for it than market value when it was fresh, and now it is deteriorating from moisture and insects. So at best it's worth 50% of what they owe on it, if they could find a buyer which they haven't. If they sell it at market value they'll have to realize the loss, so in Thailand it's best to keep it and let it rot but still claim it as an asset with no loss. Thai banks aren't required to mark to market.

 

The truth is they've lost at least 500 billion baht on it even if they could sell it, and there's no way they have the money to cover that.

So how do you know they lost 500 billion if you don't know what the government rice figures are?  Are you a Thai rice expert?  Correct me if I am wrong but I think to know how much they lost you have to know how much they bought.  Where do you get accurate figures on how much rice was purchased and at what price? 

That's kinda the point I was making about transparency. The prices paid out by the governments scheme are well documented. The quantity bought not so well but you can piece it together. What they have sold into the world market..... nearly impossible. Even the Thai rice exporters association struggle but what they have been seeing through their own people and contacts is not as much is being exported as different government ministers claim.

the scheme is flawed in SO many ways.

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

[chiangmaikelly]

It has been two years. How long do you think it will take the folks to find out you are correct?

How long do you think the government can keep hiding the truth that Thai rice is being produced, stored and not sold on?

Already last year the Thai government were searching around looking for more space to store more rice.... the mountain is growing.

The Emperor's New Suit is looking pretty.

I havn't followed this topic, just joined in but what you state seems to be oposite what the FAO state

http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/rice-publications/rice-market-monitor-rmm/en/

They get their figures from the Thai government. Check mate.

Thailand claims to have sold rice to other countries, but those countries deny it. Shippers working the ports say they haven't seen it. Some was sold to Africa and they had to throw out as much as 30% of it due to spoilage. If Thailand had sold all of that rice, why haven't they paid down the revolving fund loan at the Agricultural Bank, and instead said they need to raise the loan amount from 500 billion baht to 700 billion baht if even those numbers are truthful? 700 billion baht is a deal breaker. Thailand no way has that kind of money. But it owns the Agricultural Bank, and is using it as a piggy bank. The Agricultural Bank is technical broke from it.

The trick is to make it all look good, and keep the scheme running to be dealt with by the next administration, if they deal with it. This deficit spending for rice is off the books. It doesn't show in the official Thai deficit because the rice is considered an asset.

Yet they paid at least 50% more for it than market value when it was fresh, and now it is deteriorating from moisture and insects. So at best it's worth 50% of what they owe on it, if they could find a buyer which they haven't. If they sell it at market value they'll have to realize the loss, so in Thailand it's best to keep it and let it rot but still claim it as an asset with no loss. Thai banks aren't required to mark to market.

The truth is they've lost at least 500 billion baht on it even if they could sell it, and there's no way they have the money to cover that.

So how do you know they lost 500 billion if you don't know what the government rice figures are? Are you a Thai rice expert? Correct me if I am wrong but I think to know how much they lost you have to know how much they bought. Where do you get accurate figures on how much rice was purchased and at what price?

That's kinda the point I was making about transparency. The prices paid out by the governments scheme are well documented. The quantity bought not so well but you can piece it together. What they have sold into the world market..... nearly impossible. Even the Thai rice exporters association struggle but what they have been seeing through their own people and contacts is not as much is being exported as different government ministers claim.

the scheme is flawed in SO many ways.

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

So how much did they sell and at what price? And if the scheme is flawed the price of rice must be going down so all the people who buy rice futures will be sellers and the price will take a nosedive as we speak. We are talking about a big chunk of rice if Thailand unloads. The market is going to crash. But you guys have known this for 24 months right? You guys have far less information than the average rice broker and the market has not crashed in the last 24 months. See what I'm saying?

[ozziebloke]

It has been two years. How long do you think it will take the folks to find out you are correct?

How long do you think the government can keep hiding the truth that Thai rice is being produced, stored and not sold on?

Already last year the Thai government were searching around looking for more space to store more rice.... the mountain is growing.

The Emperor's New Suit is looking pretty.

I havn't followed this topic, just joined in but what you state seems to be oposite what the FAO state

http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/rice-publications/rice-market-monitor-rmm/en/

They get their figures from the Thai government. Check mate.

Thailand claims to have sold rice to other countries, but those countries deny it. Shippers working the ports say they haven't seen it. Some was sold to Africa and they had to throw out as much as 30% of it due to spoilage. If Thailand had sold all of that rice, why haven't they paid down the revolving fund loan at the Agricultural Bank, and instead said they need to raise the loan amount from 500 billion baht to 700 billion baht if even those numbers are truthful? 700 billion baht is a deal breaker. Thailand no way has that kind of money. But it owns the Agricultural Bank, and is using it as a piggy bank. The Agricultural Bank is technical broke from it.

The trick is to make it all look good, and keep the scheme running to be dealt with by the next administration, if they deal with it. This deficit spending for rice is off the books. It doesn't show in the official Thai deficit because the rice is considered an asset.

Yet they paid at least 50% more for it than market value when it was fresh, and now it is deteriorating from moisture and insects. So at best it's worth 50% of what they owe on it, if they could find a buyer which they haven't. If they sell it at market value they'll have to realize the loss, so in Thailand it's best to keep it and let it rot but still claim it as an asset with no loss. Thai banks aren't required to mark to market.

The truth is they've lost at least 500 billion baht on it even if they could sell it, and there's no way they have the money to cover that.

So how do you know they lost 500 billion if you don't know what the government rice figures are? Are you a Thai rice expert? Correct me if I am wrong but I think to know how much they lost you have to know how much they bought. Where do you get accurate figures on how much rice was purchased and at what price?

That's kinda the point I was making about transparency. The prices paid out by the governments scheme are well documented. The quantity bought not so well but you can piece it together. What they have sold into the world market..... nearly impossible. Even the Thai rice exporters association struggle but what they have been seeing through their own people and contacts is not as much is being exported as different government ministers claim.

the scheme is flawed in SO many ways.

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

Yeah I get that from you guy's but to refute against world organisations makes it difficult to understand where you get the stats you provide. But I do understand all governments fudge figures to suit themselves and then again how can you say that other authorities outside Thailand fudge the figures to suit Thailand?

[metisdead]

All of this has been discussed over and over in the rice topics in the Thailand News clippings. I think we've had have of this here.

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