Aussie Dollar Vs The Thai Baht - The Downtrend Continues - Where Will It End?

[rick75]

The RBA made it clear last month when they dropped the interest rate that they wanted to see the Usa- Au rate about 0.96 I am sure they will be surprised as most are that it fell so sharply maybe the rate was always going to slide and this just expedited that drop. I would think a Baht drop is just around the corner also.

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[David48]

The RBA made it clear last month when they dropped the interest rate that they wanted to see the Usa- Au rate about 0.96 I am sure they will be surprised as most are that it fell so sharply maybe the rate was always going to slide and this just expedited that drop. I would think a Baht drop is just around the corner also.

Sent from my GT-I9210T using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

From my bolding above ... a Baht drop against which Currency?

It's a relative measure.

.

Edited June 9, 2013 by metisdead
30) Do not modify someone else's post in your quoted reply, either with font or color changes, added emoticons, or altered wording.

[Naam]

Yesterday I read , Australia for Europeans is still one of the most expensive country to make holiday comparing to other country's!

I read that food price in austrialia go down, very nice but I don't know reason why?

a European like me who lived in the U.S., holidaying in Australia and getting in 2001/2002 two Oz-Dollars for one US-Dollar finds Australia today USD AUD cash 1:1 quite expensive.

that also applies to Europeans living in Europe who got more than two Oz-Dollars end 2008 beginning 2009 who are getting now for one cash €UR 1.35 Oz-Dollars.

not taken into consideration are in both cases the inflationary price increases in Australia.

[samran]

Lets hope it keeps falling then coz samran is another nobber.. feel the pain dude haha

Given I earn USD, that is fine by me.

[skippybangkok]

Happy camper too.... Down down down

[David48]

with an exchange rate ... it's like a marriage or an argument ... there are two sides to the equation.

I am still firmly of the belief that the AUD will continue to trade down against a basket of currencies.

But what of the Thai Baht?

Forget the naysaying ... what about it's direction?

What are the factors driving it up, down or sideways against a Basket of currencies?

.

[Spoonman]

Happy camper too.... Down down down

lol me too, I need the ass to fall outta the AUD so I can transfer some money home.

[TimTang]

Don't forget this is about the AUD vs THB ... not the USD.

Where you think the floor maybe under that exchange rate.

As for me, I have about 2mil in the SET, been investing for the past 4 years with some handsom returns ... probably more due to good fortune then astute stock selection.

Just saying like ...

.

It's hard to discuss any currency without throwing the US dollar into the mix (I'm not American). The US dollar is still the world standard (at least until Obama gets finished with it) so it still has influence, even if it be small, on other currencies. As others have mentioned the biggest player is probably China. So yes it is about AUD vs THB but it's nearly impossible to discuss those two currencies without looking at the Global Economy and the interaction between the various currencies.

[NeverSure]

with an exchange rate ... it's like a marriage or an argument ... there are two sides to the equation.

I am still firmly of the belief that the AUD will continue to trade down against a basket of currencies.

But what of the Thai Baht?

Forget the naysaying ... what about it's direction?

What are the factors driving it up, down or sideways against a Basket of currencies?

.

It's really complex and at the same time simple, but I'll take a stab at it. Anytime a foreigner wants to buy something in Thailand, he has to first exchange his own currency for baht. In a micro way, that creates a demand for baht, and lessens demand for his own currency. Now, if you get enough people with enough wealth doing that, there can be a huge desire to exchange foreign currencies for baht, really increasing the value of the baht. Supply and demand.

When we are talking about foreigners rushing into the SET, and into Thai real estate in a big way, and into Thai government bonds, and even into bank deposits for interest, every one of those transactions requires baht. The end result it a lot of foreign currencies being traded for baht, driving up demand for and the price of the baht.

This big boom that Thailand has had has created a great demand for baht to invest in Thailand.

Now, if on one single day all of those investors found out that Thailand was in trouble, and wanted their money back out of Thailand, they would be trying to get rid of their baht denominated investments and get their home currencies back. This would instantly create a massive oversupply of baht and drive the price right back down. Instead of "everyone" wanting to buy baht, "everyone" would be wanting out of it and the price would plummet.

Now that is a simple layman's explanation but backed by truth in how it works. Whether anyone agrees with me that Thailand is on the verge of collapse and that people will want their money out is up to each person. I can't say it for a fact, but the handwriting is on the wall for me.

I can at least tell you that this big boom bringing in foreign money to invest in real estate and the SET and other things has created a strong demand, and a strong value for the baht to this point.

[BlackJack]

I don't think the change in FX is anything to worry about and the slow adjustment is not extraordinary.

The mirror currency of the AUD is the CAD. Like Australia, there was a rush to buy up Canadian $$ as the USD and EU were wobbling. As the US economy continues its slow but steady recovery, the USD has strengthened against the AUD and CAD and the 2 currencies dropped a bit. The THB is still holding strong, and I am of the belief that there will eventually be a correction with the THB. It will most likely be sudden, although not unexpected for anyone familiar with the THB historic fluctuations.

IMO the Australian and Canadian economies and currency are well managed to the extent that the central banks and finance ministers are able to transition currency adjustments instead of allowing for a change to come all at once as has often been the case in many Asian economies.

Analysts are of the view that we will see a further "weakening" of the AUD and CAD. I keep referencing Canada because it demonstrates that the change in FX on the AUD is nothing peculiar to Australia or that Australians are twits when it comes to managing their economy. On the contrary, Australia and Canada are considered 2 of the better managed economies and currencies, and their banks are in the top 50 of the worlds safest banks.

Although the weakening may be hurting some expats, it is good for the Australian economy as a whole. When the AUD was strong it really hurt exports. The slight decreases offer much needed relief for all of Australia's exporters.I note the comments about Chinese investments in Australia. Well the same situation has occurred in Canada. This does work in both economies favour as it takes the money that China made from its exports of garbage products to the foreign economies and returns it back. True, the Chinese own some important assets, but they only own it as long as the foreign country doesn't do a "China", aka nationalise the asset. It also gives China an incentive not to misbehave as it could lose billions otherwise.

IMO the THB is over valued and owes much of its robust characteristic to some skillful massaging of the national numbers. Former finance minister Korn was good at understanding the foreign markets and could read the analysts pretty well. He didn't push the envelope, although by the end of his tenure, his large spending initiatives were drawing questions. Then came the folks of the PTP. IMO, the deck of cards will collapse during a PTP government as they are a tad too brazen. Once the rice pledging scheme numbers start getting picked apart, we will see an immediate impact on the THB. The AUD will then start to improve on the THB.

Just my own personal assessment. No offense to the Australians, but I think you are better off with AUD than THB over the long term.

if u live in Thailand then have bahts and visa versa

the only ones getting creamed are the ones wanting to exchange

if the in Thailand and u live here then u should be holding bahts as it wont make much difference to a bowl of rice

[simple1]

Don't forget this is about the AUD vs THB ... not the USD.

Where you think the floor maybe under that exchange rate.

As for me, I have about 2mil in the SET, been investing for the past 4 years with some handsom returns ... probably more due to good fortune then astute stock selection.

Just saying like ...

.

It's hard to discuss any currency without throwing the US dollar into the mix (I'm not American). The US dollar is still the world standard (at least until Obama gets finished with it) so it still has influence, even if it be small, on other currencies. As others have mentioned the biggest player is probably China. So yes it is about AUD vs THB but it's nearly impossible to discuss those two currencies without looking at the Global Economy and the interaction between the various currencies.

the Australian dollar is is now directly convertible into Chinese yuan, without going through the US dollar.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22075345

[Naam]

Don't forget this is about the AUD vs THB ... not the USD.

Where you think the floor maybe under that exchange rate.

As for me, I have about 2mil in the SET, been investing for the past 4 years with some handsom returns ... probably more due to good fortune then astute stock selection.

Just saying like ...

.

It's hard to discuss any currency without throwing the US dollar into the mix (I'm not American). The US dollar is still the world standard (at least until Obama gets finished with it) so it still has influence, even if it be small, on other currencies. As others have mentioned the biggest player is probably China. So yes it is about AUD vs THB but it's nearly impossible to discuss those two currencies without looking at the Global Economy and the interaction between the various currencies.

the Australian dollar is is now directly convertible into Chinese yuan, without going through the US dollar.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22075345

this swap agreement has no effect on AUD exchange rates.

[simple1]

Don't forget this is about the AUD vs THB ... not the USD.

Where you think the floor maybe under that exchange rate.

As for me, I have about 2mil in the SET, been investing for the past 4 years with some handsom returns ... probably more due to good fortune then astute stock selection.

Just saying like ...

.

It's hard to discuss any currency without throwing the US dollar into the mix (I'm not American). The US dollar is still the world standard (at least until Obama gets finished with it) so it still has influence, even if it be small, on other currencies. As others have mentioned the biggest player is probably China. So yes it is about AUD vs THB but it's nearly impossible to discuss those two currencies without looking at the Global Economy and the interaction between the various currencies.

the Australian dollar is is now directly convertible into Chinese yuan, without going through the US dollar.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22075345

this swap agreement has no effect on AUD exchange rates.

I thought it interesting that, as I understand, the A$ is only one of three currencies that has this arrangement in place. I realise it is relative peanuts in cross border currency trade volume, but you do not believe it has any influence whatsoever on the future strength or otherwise of the A$?

[Naam]

simple1

I thought it interesting that, as I understand, the A$ is only one of

three currencies that has this arrangement in place. I realise it is

relative peanuts in cross border currency trade volume, but you do not

believe it has any influence whatsoever on the future strength or

otherwise of the A$?

no influence whatsoever! more swap agreements with China's CNY exist.

Japan, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Taiwan, Malaysia,

Singapore, Ukraine and a few others which i don't recall. France about to sign.

[overherebc]

simple1

I thought it interesting that, as I understand, the A$ is only one of

three currencies that has this arrangement in place. I realise it is

relative peanuts in cross border currency trade volume, but you do not

believe it has any influence whatsoever on the future strength or

otherwise of the A$?

no influence whatsoever! more swap agreements with China's CNY exist.

Japan, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Taiwan, Malaysia,

Singapore, Ukraine and a few others which i don't recall. France about to sign.

For goodness sake do stop it.

I really can't understand what you base your arguements on.

Let me explain it to you.

The thai bath baht rate is 100% based on conversations in bars and restaurant, mostly bars frequented by ex-pats who don't like the rate as it stands. 'Got it'

As soon as you accept that we will all sleep easier at night.!

[smooth expat]

Now it's your turn to whine. Haha. We'll see a lot less Aussies here when it hits 20 to the A$.

[David48]

Back on Topic ...

While I'm yet to be convinced there is some strong commentary re the relationship between the Aussie and US Dollar.

This came to me this morning ...

Looks good when you look at it in full scale so click on the image for finer details.

Certainly at the support level with showing signs of possibly breaking through that support.

.

[CodyB]

Sussing out whether or not I should take cash or just go off card whilst in BKK.

What is the current cash rate for AUD-THB in BKK? Anything over 28?

[itchybum]

Now it's your turn to whine. Haha. We'll see a lot less Aussies here when it hits 20 to the A$.

Not this Nelly.

I'll have some cash to move back and gain considerably and cash here enough to live on till it picks back up somewhat.

[yoshiwara]

Sussing out whether or not I should take cash or just go off card whilst in BKK.

What is the current cash rate for AUD-THB in BKK? Anything over 28?

Cash. Always cash.

[Pib]

Sussing out whether or not I should take cash or just go off card whilst in BKK.

What is the current cash rate for AUD-THB in BKK? Anything over 28?

Check this web site for rates: Link. Be sure to select the currency type of exchange...that is notes/cash, checks, ATM, etc.

If you decide to use your debit/credit card be sure to consider any foreign transaction fees the issuing bank may apply....not uncommon for fees in the 3% ballpark to be applied....and you may also need to ring-up your bank/card company to tell then you will be using the card in Thailand on dates X thru Y to ensure the card works/the card issuing bank don't think the card might be being fraudulently used in Thailand and shuts down the card. Regardless, definitely bring some cash/traveler checks as backup to your card.

[CodyB]

Sussing out whether or not I should take cash or just go off card whilst in BKK.

What is the current cash rate for AUD-THB in BKK? Anything over 28?

Check this web site for rates: Link. Be sure to select the currency type of exchange...that is notes/cash, checks, ATM, etc.

If you decide to use your debit/credit card be sure to consider any foreign transaction fees the issuing bank may apply....not uncommon for fees in the 3% ballpark to be applied....and you may also need to ring-up your bank/card company to tell then you will be using the card in Thailand on dates X thru Y to ensure the card works/the card issuing bank don't think the card might be being fraudulently used in Thailand and shuts down the card. Regardless, definitely bring some cash/traveler checks as backup to your card.

Very true, but there are now some excellent options in the form of Citibank and 28 Degrees Mastercard. Neither have a surcharge on o/seas CC transactions and they won't charge a withdrawl fee either, judging by the fees on that website you just quotes it isn't a big difference either.

The catch is finding a Citibank ATM and/or finding a fee free ATM in BKK(Aeon is the only one that I know of.) I've gone over a few times with lots of cash and I think I'm lucky that I haven't been robbed yet.