Thaksin's ties with red shirts grow more delicate

[webfact]

EDITORIAL
Thaksin's ties with red shirts grow more delicate
The Nation

Jatuporn's demand for an amnesty to help grassroots protesters could cause problems

BANGKOK: -- A lot of what is said politically has to be read between the lines these days, not least the words that have come out of Jatuporn Promphan's mouth. His latest widely reported remarks can be seen as a warning either to the opponents of Thaksin Shinawatra or the man in exile himself. Or Jatuporn could be issuing threats to both camps. For a red-shirt leader scorned, anything is possible.

He has said that unless it moves quickly and correctly on the contentious issue of amnesty, the Yingluck government will not last long enough to spend the massive sum of money potentially available in the water management and infrastructure development schemes.

Jatuporn wants the government to move the amnesty issue to the top of the parliamentary agenda, above the budget bill. It's a demand that the government seems to have thrown cold water on, with all the signals suggesting the budget bill is the real priority.

According to Jatuporn, if the government does not act on amnesty now, it will never be able to. The government's enemies, he said, would never allow the Thaksin camp to have both people power and financial strength. He seemed to suggest that the government is so close to having it all now, and that passing the amnesty bill would be the last piece of the jigsaw puzzle.

However, there is one key condition in Jatuporn's demand. He wants an amnesty bill that will benefit grass-root red shirts while "those who ordered the killings of protesters" must be excluded. It's a tough, if not impossible, condition. For one thing, how can such a bill bring about true reconciliation and peace? For another, how can this kind of bill favour Thaksin Shinawatra?

Jatuporn has become a bitter red warrior. Time and again, he has missed out on a Cabinet post. He has faced legal crackdowns and he has seen those who did less for Thaksin reap more political rewards. To Thaksin's enemies, he has come to symbolise all the unfavourable facets of the red-shirt movement. To the Thaksin regime, he is something of a liability, one that is obstructing a "real" truce.

His warning that the government must act quickly and correctly on amnesty has come at a most delicate time in the relationship between Thaksin and the red shirts. The relationship has always been hounded by outsiders' claims that Thaksin was exploiting the grass-roots' loyalty. Such accusations were often swept aside by strong allegiance, but if the red shirts managed to suppress their doubts, that scepticism must have started to grow lately.

The recently leaked audio clip purportedly between Thaksin and a senior defence official referred to a thawing of ties between the former prime minister and the military. Although the red shirts may still bear some resentment against the armed forces, the thorniest part of the dialogue could be the way "amnesty" was discussed. To the two dialogue partners, the issue of amnesty seemed to be more about bringing Thaksin home than anything else.

Thaksin's relations with the red shirts have survived tough times. Bigger tests, however, may come soon when the government has to prioritise key bills and possibly decide what kind of "amnesty" it wants.

Jatuporn may not represent the entire red-shirt movement, but as far as Thaksin is concerned, few things can be more dangerous than a loyal warrior betrayed.


-- The Nation 2013-07-23

[Bluespunk]

"Jatuporn may not represent the entire red-shirt movement, but as far as Thaksin is concerned, few things can be more dangerous than a loyal warrior betrayed."

Jatuporn isn't any sort of warrior. He is a fascist thug who leads a gang of bully boy stormtroopers. He is surplus to requirements and an embarrassment to all. He would do well to learn from the fate of Ernst Rohm, another arrogant, self absorbed fascist who was disposed of once his usefulness was outweighed by his embarrassment factor.

[rametindallas]

Chalerm and now Jatuporn and the many before them who have been thrown overboard by the Thaksin machine are not happy. How many loyalists does Dr. Thaksin still have who are truly working for him and not for themselves while paying him 'lip' service. Chickens, unless they are dead, will always come home to roost. Is Dr. Thaksin now being secretly undermined to the point of no return? Things are not as they seem and doubly so in Thailand where people can smile to your face (http://www.dougsrepublic.com/thailand/landofsmiles.php) as they are in the process of betraying you. The PTP party, and therefore the government, is a house of cards and any wind from the wrong direction will bring it down. For the last two months I haven't seen one thing happen in the government's favor and the cabinet reshuffle looks like too little too late. The only reason this government is still in power is because the Democrat Party is not a viable alternative so the status quo retains its momentum. Jatuporn is correct; do it now as there won't be another chance.

Thailand politics is way more interesting to follow than U.S. politics. I'm going to make another batch of popcorn.

[NongKhaiKid]

"Jatuporn may not represent the entire red-shirt movement, but as far as Thaksin is concerned, few things can be more dangerous than a loyal warrior betrayed."

Jatuporn isn't any sort of warrior. He is a fascist thug who leads a gang of bully boy stormtroopers. He is surplus to requirements and an embarrassment to all. He would do well to learn from the fate of Ernst Rohm, another arrogant, self absorbed fascist who was disposed of once his usefulness was outweighed by his embarrassment factor.

Keep your friends close and your enemies even closer and Mr. T knows all about cheating, double dealing and so on. Jatuporn is outliving his usefulness and will be dumped on as soon as he pushes it too far.

Interesting question though, " who will the hardcore reds take their orders from Jatuporn on Mr. T ? "

[rametindallas]

"Jatuporn may not represent the entire red-shirt movement, but as far as Thaksin is concerned, few things can be more dangerous than a loyal warrior betrayed."

Jatuporn isn't any sort of warrior. He is a fascist thug who leads a gang of bully boy stormtroopers. He is surplus to requirements and an embarrassment to all. He would do well to learn from the fate of Ernst Rohm, another arrogant, self absorbed fascist who was disposed of once his usefulness was outweighed by his embarrassment factor.

Keep your friends close and your enemies even closer and Mr. T knows all about cheating, double dealing and so on. Jatuporn is outliving his usefulness and will be dumped on as soon as he pushes it too far.

Interesting question though, " who will the hardcore reds take their orders from Jatuporn on Mr. T ? "

Clearly they will side with Dr. Thaksin; he has all the money.

[NongKhaiKid]

"Jatuporn may not represent the entire red-shirt movement, but as far as Thaksin is concerned, few things can be more dangerous than a loyal warrior betrayed."

Jatuporn isn't any sort of warrior. He is a fascist thug who leads a gang of bully boy stormtroopers. He is surplus to requirements and an embarrassment to all. He would do well to learn from the fate of Ernst Rohm, another arrogant, self absorbed fascist who was disposed of once his usefulness was outweighed by his embarrassment factor.

Keep your friends close and your enemies even closer and Mr. T knows all about cheating, double dealing and so on. Jatuporn is outliving his usefulness and will be dumped on as soon as he pushes it too far.

Interesting question though, " who will the hardcore reds take their orders from Jatuporn on Mr. T ? "

Clearly they will side with Dr. Thaksin; he has all the money.

The ultimate decider in Thailand

[hansnl]

Had a look at a "demonstration" of the white masks in Khon Kaen.

Red shirts were all around them, threatening.

Looking like a pack of hyena's braying attack.....attack......attack......

Against dictatorship?

[Thai at Heart]

"Jatuporn may not represent the entire red-shirt movement, but as far as Thaksin is concerned, few things can be more dangerous than a loyal warrior betrayed."

Jatuporn isn't any sort of warrior. He is a fascist thug who leads a gang of bully boy stormtroopers. He is surplus to requirements and an embarrassment to all. He would do well to learn from the fate of Ernst Rohm, another arrogant, self absorbed fascist who was disposed of once his usefulness was outweighed by his embarrassment factor.

I think it's pretty obvious that Thaksin realises that if he puts jatuporn into a position in cabinet, his chances of getting amnesty and returning get even slimmer.

[Neilly]

He has said that unless it moves quickly and correctly on the contentious issue of amnesty, the Yingluck government will not last long enough to spend the massive sum of money potentially available in the water management and infrastructure development schemes.

That little snippet ought to get the attention of all the hogs waiting at the trough

[siampolee]

The time has come when the political gallows trapdoor is about to open on both Jutuporn and Thaksin. Both have outlived their usefulness to each other and the money is being controlled by Thaksins brown nosing acolytes.They have the taste of filthy lucre in their mouths now and it is too sweet to spit out. However the gristle, namely Jutuporn and Thaksin are being spat out.

Thaksin engineered anarchy by his sponsoring of the Red Shirt movement, now that little bird of anarchy has come home to roost for both Jutuporn and Thaksin. I commented a long back that there was gong to be a white knuckle political roller coaster ride, looks like the ride is about to start rolling. Hang on folks this could be an interesting ride..

[SICHONSTEVE]

"Jatuporn may not represent the entire red-shirt movement, but as far as Thaksin is concerned, few things can be more dangerous than a loyal warrior betrayed."

Jatuporn isn't any sort of warrior. He is a fascist thug who leads a gang of bully boy stormtroopers. He is surplus to requirements and an embarrassment to all. He would do well to learn from the fate of Ernst Rohm, another arrogant, self absorbed fascist who was disposed of once his usefulness was outweighed by his embarrassment factor.

I think it's pretty obvious that Thaksin realises that if he puts jatuporn into a position in cabinet, his chances of getting amnesty and returning get even slimmer.

But if he keeps him out, slimmer still???

[TomTao]

He has said that unless it moves quickly and correctly on the contentious issue of amnesty, the Yingluck government will not last long enough to spend the massive sum of money potentially available in the water management and infrastructure development schemes.

To me that sounds like a very thinly veiled threat against the government, give us what we, your grassroots support want or we will do to you what we did to the Democrats, that is use mob power to force you out of government.

As some have said, the Democrats are not in a position to govern, purely through a lack of popular support I think, so who or what will replace the government, especially if the hardcore reds turn against Taksin? It may well be a less than desirable replacement, one that may see red democracy rule the country, and crush all do not like the red version of democracy.

[MacWalen]

Democracy is a sick system, peoples votes can be bough and a vote of a university professor is as valuable as that of an illiterate alcoholic peasant. Makes you wonder.

[siampolee]

To me that sounds like a very thinly veiled threat against the government, give us what we, your grassroots support want or we will do to you what we did to the Democrats, that is use mob power to force you out of government.

Interesting situation, one is led to speculate what action might or would be taken by this current maladministration in the event of the Red Shirt upstarts turning on their mutual paymaster (s) However in my opinion the grass roots are very disillusioned and sparse upon the political ground, their paymasters have feathered their nests but the grass roots supporters have nothing but cheap rhetoric as their dividend payment.

Methinks there will be a little more iron fist used and a lot less kid gloves worn by the assorted factions involved in any conflict of interests and personal political and financial turf protection. Thaksin and Jutuporn should remember that if you lay with the dogs you will get their fleas,

Edited July 23, 2013 by siampolee

[waza]

"Jatuporn may not represent the entire red-shirt movement, but as far as Thaksin is concerned, few things can be more dangerous than a loyal warrior betrayed."

Jatuporn isn't any sort of warrior. He is a fascist thug who leads a gang of bully boy stormtroopers. He is surplus to requirements and an embarrassment to all. He would do well to learn from the fate of Ernst Rohm, another arrogant, self absorbed fascist who was disposed of once his usefulness was outweighed by his embarrassment factor.

Remember the last redshirt to get too big for his boots..............

"Then reports came that Seh Daeng had been shot and rushed to hospital........Seh Daeng is part of the protesters' more radical wing and had accused red-shirt leaders - many of whom have distanced themselves from him - of not being hard-line enough."

Justaporn and the redshirt movement have been pensioned off..........

"Dr. Weng Tojilakarn were invited to attend a ceremony to award 19 million baht worth of compensation to 77 individuals who were jailed for their alleged roles during the Red Shirt protests in 2010."

Thaksin has an embarrassment of political support, he owns the majority of politicians and political parties. His relatives and sycophants control the RTP, DSI, Thai military and other senior Thai figures. While Justaporn et al are just an embarrassment, their usefulness is now being overwhelmed by their hindrance.

Edited July 23, 2013 by waza

[SICHONSTEVE]

Democracy is a sick system, peoples votes can be bough and a vote of a university professor is as valuable as that of an illiterate alcoholic peasant. Makes you wonder.

The vote of an illiterate, alcoholic peasant is far more valuable than a university professor's vote. It is a shame that the peasant's vote is, on the whole misguided, as they are easily duped and gullible and have inadvertently voted this bunch of self-interested and incompetent wasters into power under the illusion that they are on their side when the only thing that counts is getting a fugitive back home to wreak more havoc, diquiet and disharmony on the people!!

[Baerboxer]

Democracy is a sick system, peoples votes can be bough and a vote of a university professor is as valuable as that of an illiterate alcoholic peasant. Makes you wonder.

And your alternative would be?

"Qualifications" or some such criteria to be eldible to vote? The problem with any process is those that are determined to corrupt it usually find a way to do so. Behaviour not systems issue.

[gemini81]

Democracy is a sick system, peoples votes can be bough and a vote of a university professor is as valuable as that of an illiterate alcoholic peasant. Makes you wonder.

well, if you prefer red style communism as an alternative to democracy, you came to the right place-buying and intimidating folks for votes.

[Pi Sek]

Democracy is a sick system, peoples votes can be bough and a vote of a university professor is as valuable as that of an illiterate alcoholic peasant. Makes you wonder.

You are right in some respects, and this is why I call myself a "fascist", even though my views are more in favour of democracy than many who demonise fascism. Winston Churchill, a great scholar of politics and a champion of democracy, agreed with you too:

"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter."

"It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried."

If there are proportionally many "illiterate alcoholic peasants" in a nation or even a large proportion who see political allegiance with some sort of "local football team" mentality, then democracy is doomed. This can be applied to "evolved" democratic states like the USA or to younger ones like Thailand. What's worse, the state will continually restrict democratic rights purportedly in the interests of democracy, thus devolving democracy into a totalitarian type of fascism. Again, this can be applied to the US and Thailand, but the most poignant example I can think of was Nazi Germany.

[Pi Sek]

Democracy is a sick system, peoples votes can be bough and a vote of a university professor is as valuable as that of an illiterate alcoholic peasant. Makes you wonder.

The vote of an illiterate, alcoholic peasant is far more valuable than a university professor's vote. It is a shame that the peasant's vote is, on the whole misguided, as they are easily duped and gullible and have inadvertently voted this bunch of self-interested and incompetent wasters into power under the illusion that they are on their side when the only thing that counts is getting a fugitive back home to wreak more havoc, diquiet and disharmony on the people!!

No, the vote of an illiterate alcoholic peasant is not more valuable - but it can be won en-masse whereas a university professor will typically apply a bit more critical thinking (making professors' votes harder to win as their opinions won't be formed purely by propaganda). There are also more illiterate alcoholic peasants than university professors.

Particularly with younger democracies, the principle aim of many politicians is to get into power - this is much more important than what they actually do with this power. So it makes sense for populist governments to attempt to win more favour with illiterate alcoholic peasants than with university professors.

That's why populism is a bad thing, it's why MacWalen has called democracy a sick system and it's also why truly democratic leaders like Churchill and Socrates pointed out the flaws - to raise independent political awareness among the common man.

[SICHONSTEVE]

Democracy is a sick system, peoples votes can be bough and a vote of a university professor is as valuable as that of an illiterate alcoholic peasant. Makes you wonder.

You are right in some respects, and this is why I call myself a "fascist", even though my views are more in favour of democracy than many who demonise fascism. Winston Churchill, a great scholar of politics and a champion of democracy, agreed with you too:

"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter."

"It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried."

If there are proportionally many "illiterate alcoholic peasants" in a nation or even a large proportion who see political allegiance with some sort of "local football team" mentality, then democracy is doomed. This can be applied to "evolved" democratic states like the USA or to younger ones like Thailand. What's worse, the state will continually restrict democratic rights purportedly in the interests of democracy, thus devolving democracy into a totalitarian type of fascism. Again, this can be applied to the US and Thailand, but the most poignant example I can think of was Nazi Germany.

Interesting viewpoint that definitely reflects the situation in Thailand whereby "in the name of Democracy" they are doing themselves no favour at all (even though they are absolutely convinced that they are, sadly). They perceive that a multi-billionaire is their saviour and cares deeply about them when they are being 'used and abused' by him, for his purpose,and his benefit only!!!

I am not convinced in any way though that Fascism fits into the equation very neatly though as I cannot make the connection!!

[borisloosebrain]

Democracy is a sick system, peoples votes can be bough and a vote of a university professor is as valuable as that of an illiterate alcoholic peasant. Makes you wonder.

Make no mistake there are plenty of alcoholic illiterate peasants who are smarter and wiser than some Thai university professors. A degree, especially one obtained in Thailand is no guarantee of intelligence as demonstrated most recently by comments from the dean of Chula

[SICHONSTEVE]

Democracy is a sick system, peoples votes can be bough and a vote of a university professor is as valuable as that of an illiterate alcoholic peasant. Makes you wonder.

Make no mistake there are plenty of alcoholic illiterate peasants who are smarter and wiser than some Thai university professors. A degree, especially one obtained in Thailand is no guarantee of intelligence as demonstrated most recently by comments from the dean of Chula

How very true indeed!!!!

I think that degrees prove absolutely nothing and are often not worth the paper they are written on.

Some of the dumbest people I know have degrees and appear to know little about the 'real world' and lots about trivial and worthless topics that has little in the way of benefit to mankind.

[Pi Sek]

Democracy is a sick system, peoples votes can be bough and a vote of a university professor is as valuable as that of an illiterate alcoholic peasant. Makes you wonder.

You are right in some respects, and this is why I call myself a "fascist", even though my views are more in favour of democracy than many who demonise fascism. Winston Churchill, a great scholar of politics and a champion of democracy, agreed with you too:

"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter."

"It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried."

If there are proportionally many "illiterate alcoholic peasants" in a nation or even a large proportion who see political allegiance with some sort of "local football team" mentality, then democracy is doomed. This can be applied to "evolved" democratic states like the USA or to younger ones like Thailand. What's worse, the state will continually restrict democratic rights purportedly in the interests of democracy, thus devolving democracy into a totalitarian type of fascism. Again, this can be applied to the US and Thailand, but the most poignant example I can think of was Nazi Germany.

Interesting viewpoint that definitely reflects the situation in Thailand whereby "in the name of Democracy" they are doing themselves no favour at all (even though they are absolutely convinced that they are, sadly). They perceive that a multi-billionaire is their saviour and cares deeply about them when they are being 'used and abused' by him, for his purpose,and his benefit only!!!

I am not convinced in any way though that Fascism fits into the equation very neatly though as I cannot make the connection!!

If fascism represents anti-liberalism and placement of some above others, how can I be a left wing fascist? It must mean either I am an idiot, or that the definition of fascism was warped by Mussolini in 1919 and history books that say fascism originated since WW1 aren't 100% accurate.

Thaksin is clearly a fascist of the totalitarian kind - he displays the characteristics (e.g. megalomania, demagoguery, intolerance of dissent, willingness to use mass mobilisation, promotion of masculinity), unless of course he is talking to Jonathan Head (BBC) or Sam Moon (The Economist).

I think there are several kinds of fascism, and many of them can be found discussed and supported by both right- and left-wing groups pre-WW1.

[ramrod711]

To Thaksin's enemies, he has come to symbolise all the unfavourable facets of the red-shirt movement.

Jatuporn has always symbolised something unfavourable, repugnant, unpleasant, rotten, slimy......well, i think you get my point.

[Bagwan]

Democracy is a sick system, peoples votes can be bough and a vote of a university professor is as valuable as that of an illiterate alcoholic peasant. Makes you wonder.

Givn the offerings of so many University professors I have no problem with that.

[jaidam]

Democracy is a sick system, peoples votes can be bough and a vote of a university professor is as valuable as that of an illiterate alcoholic peasant. Makes you wonder.

Givn the offerings of so many University professors I have no problem with that.

Are we confusing the limitations of democracy in this situation with a broken down judicial system? The last decade in Thai politics occurred due to the total lack of judicial ethics in Thaksins asset concealment case. The judges even admitted after the case that he was guilty but that seeing as he won an election who were they to find him guilty. Emboldened by his apparent above the law status we saw the events unfold like the murder of the shipping moo about to give evidence against Thaksin in the Shin corp tax evasion case, and the dozen other charges awaiting his return.

Any true reconciliation will come about not by whitewashing Thaksin for all crimes past,present and future, but by rewinding the clock to this asset concealment case. As a convicted criminal he would not have been eligible to have been PM in the first place. I have no idea where Thailand would be now if there had been no Thaksin, but I'm quite certain we would not be teetering on the brink of a civil war.

Now we have a bizarre situation whereby instead of genuine rulings in court against the Shinawatra clan by considering evidence, the crimes are instead dropped from the lawbooks to maintain this not guilty facade. Recent examples being the Yingluck perjury case, chief of police receiving promotions from a convicted criminal fugitive, passports being hand delivered overseas to the same criminal. Its all a nonsense and can only be corrected by going back to the beginning of the Thaksin reign and apply proper judgments.

Failure to correct these past wrongs will lead to the countries continued slide into a state of anarchy, double standards, economic hardships and an end result that is both unclear, and unpleasant to consider.

[Pi Sek]

Democracy is a sick system, peoples votes can be bough and a vote of a university professor is as valuable as that of an illiterate alcoholic peasant. Makes you wonder.

Givn the offerings of so many University professors I have no problem with that.

Are we confusing the limitations of democracy in this situation with a broken down judicial system? The last decade in Thai politics occurred due to the total lack of judicial ethics in Thaksins asset concealment case. The judges even admitted after the case that he was guilty but that seeing as he won an election who were they to find him guilty. Emboldened by his apparent above the law status we saw the events unfold like the murder of the shipping moo about to give evidence against Thaksin in the Shin corp tax evasion case, and the dozen other charges awaiting his return.

Any true reconciliation will come about not by whitewashing Thaksin for all crimes past,present and future, but by rewinding the clock to this asset concealment case. As a convicted criminal he would not have been eligible to have been PM in the first place. I have no idea where Thailand would be now if there had been no Thaksin, but I'm quite certain we would not be teetering on the brink of a civil war.

Now we have a bizarre situation whereby instead of genuine rulings in court against the Shinawatra clan by considering evidence, the crimes are instead dropped from the lawbooks to maintain this not guilty facade. Recent examples being the Yingluck perjury case, chief of police receiving promotions from a convicted criminal fugitive, passports being hand delivered overseas to the same criminal. Its all a nonsense and can only be corrected by going back to the beginning of the Thaksin reign and apply proper judgments.

Failure to correct these past wrongs will lead to the countries continued slide into a state of anarchy, double standards, economic hardships and an end result that is both unclear, and unpleasant to consider.

And, as with all demagogues, he and his supporters now decry as foul the same double-standard practices that allowed him to gain and maintain power. That's why the Red Shirt pro-democracy movement made a huge blunder by allowing him to champion their cause in the first place and why "Thaksin's ties with Red Shirts grow more delicate".

[tominbkk]

As some have said, the Democrats are not in a position to govern, purely through a lack of popular support I think, so who or what will replace the government, especially if the hardcore reds turn against Taksin? It may well be a less than desirable replacement, one that may see red democracy rule the country, and crush all do not like the red version of democracy.

True, since the dems refuse to hand out bribes and pay off the peasants to vote or rally for them, they are not that popular. The problem with the dems is they have too much integrity!

[khunken]

Some very interesting posts on this thread regarding democracy itself as well as Thai style.

First, I have a question: is there a truly democratic country in the world today? One where:

* money doesn't decide on who gets elected

* political parties are not permitted to promise or directly hand out riches to those who will vote for them

* elections are not won by 33% of the vote

* intimidation of voters is not a factor

* manipulation of vote counting is not a factor

* constituency boundaries are not manipulated

* the electorate is consulted in the case of war, for example (or built in checks are present)

* and there is a means (not too easy and not too difficult) to overthrow a government that is so corrupt or oppressive (or both).

The only country that comes close is Switzerland. Unfortunately their example can't fully be used by larger countries but some parts could.

In Thailand's case any means to prevent Thaksin acquiring direct power again are justified. I'm not against collective leadership but dictatorship is disastrous.