Are You A Sexpat Or Do You Ride The Backwards Morality Train?

[Gonzo the Face]

Approx 30 satang drop vs the $ from last night.

Somebody playing games again or what ?

[Swiss1960]

Don't worry, be happy... you get more money for your $ or £ or € or CHF...

[Thanyaburi Mac]

Right on, "up" a bit at 31.29, keep going to 40, easier to divide that way.

http://www.scb.co.th/scb_api/

Mac

[slapout]

The cabinet approving budget and other mega projects. The rake off the top will put several billion in baht in circulation. Thus a increased demand for western currency to facilate the top up of foreign bank accounts.

[Gonzo the Face]

Ahaa now I see..... its a technical recession

[julianrocks42]

Dear guys: Please explain; about to expat over soon! With Australian $$...Not sure how this effects me??/

reply appreciated!

Jan

[catmac]

No Gonzo, it's now officially a real recession - see my thread here - but the Thais are being very quiet about it!

We can only hope that the Baht continues to fall back to a more reasonable level.

[Totster]

Jasus... not another one !!

totster

[David48]

Dear guys: Please explain; about to expat over soon! With Australian $$...Not sure how this effects me??/

reply appreciated!

Jan

Maybe a few of this ... aussie-dollar-vs-the-thai-baht-the-downtrend-continues-where-will-it-end

[somtampet]

49.1 baht to gbp today,will be keeping an eye on the situation in the next few days,could be worth cashing 10,000gbp soon.

[that geeza]

you have to look at other currencies in the region to see if they have been hit too. in this case yes. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/asia-pacific/ so its not a local thai factor thats causing the dip. current shorter term trend is out of asia pacific currencies into euro region, aud looks to be well over sold though. after oz election expect a major correction against the baht and region currencies at least.

Edited August 20, 2013 by that geeza

[MrWorldwide]

Dear guys: Please explain; about to expat over soon! With Australian $$...Not sure how this effects me??/

reply appreciated!

Jan

Mate, all due respect but if you don't have a grip on the AUD-THB exchange rate, you have no business getting on that plane.

First tip is to ignore every 'crystal ball' projection you read - it's all one man's opinion (or shared delusions if you read it here).

The best advice I've ever received here is 'never make an investment in Thailand that you couldnt afford to walk away from tomorrow', and I believe that includes the country's currency. For me, I wont get on a plane to Thailand - from anywhere - if the Pacific Peso falls below 21 baht : all the 'analysis' here or wherever means nothing once you've established that figure for yourself - I just don't see too many Australians flying to Thailand at anything resembling 15 baht - particularly Bangkok.

In Malaysia, my 'break even' figure is 2.2 Ringgit, and that is a much more important number for me. I have a Plan B, and a Plan C - neither fills me with joy, but both are 'worst case scenarios'. The days of parity with the USD are over - time we came to grips with reality. Good luck.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=exchangerates

Edited August 20, 2013 by MrWorldwide

[tw25rw]

I like it. I hope the THB and AUD keep going down relative to GBP. Big thumbs up from me.

[Naam]

The best advice I've ever received here is 'never make an investment in Thailand that you couldnt afford to walk away from tomorrow', and I believe that includes the country's currency.

[chiang mai]

The Baht is falling in value, along with most other Asian currencies, (India is at record lows and Indonesia has been badly hit) as funds are being withdrawn from Asia and invested in safer markets in the West. This is because markets believe that the US Federal Reserve is getting ready to reduce the volume of quantative easing. What is somewhat unual at the moment isd that USD has not strengthened on the back of expected interest rate hikes but hey, the rules don't seem to apply any longer.

This could play out in a number of different ways but ultimately the Fed's QE program has to end at some point and as the US economy improves the chances of QE ending sooner rather than later are increased. A key meeting/anouncement on Wednesday will tell the story as to whether this is all real or imagined, capital outflows will therefore either acelerate or decline accordingly.

[onionluke]

What is a Pacific Peso ?

[chiang mai]

What is a Pacific Peso ?

Aussie Dollar.

[onionluke]

What is a Pacific Peso ?

Aussie Dollar.

Obligado .

[that geeza]

The best advice I've ever received here is 'never make an investment in Thailand that you couldnt afford to walk away from tomorrow', and I believe that includes the country's currency. For me, I wont get on a plane to Thailand - from anywhere - if the Pacific Peso falls below 21 baht :

if you even remotely believe that 21 baht to 1 aud is possible any time soon, then it makes the first part of your advise "walk away from tomorrow', and I believe that includes the country's currency." to be nonsense. that magnitude of currency gain wouldnt happen if any type of banking melt down/irregularity occurred that would deny you access to your baht,

if you think 21 is possible not many other investments are showing anywhere near that sort of short term gain.

Edited August 20, 2013 by that geeza

[jbrain]

you have to look at other currencies in the region to see if they have been hit too. in this case yes. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/asia-pacific/ so its not a local thai factor thats causing the dip. current shorter term trend is out of asia pacific currencies into euro region, aud looks to be well over sold though. after oz election expect a major correction against the baht and region currencies at least.

Did you even consider that this is a sign that the any time soon in China, and that all SEA countries gonna dragged down with it.

[that geeza]

you have to look at other currencies in the region to see if they have been hit too. in this case yes. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/asia-pacific/ so its not a local thai factor thats causing the dip. current shorter term trend is out of asia pacific currencies into euro region, aud looks to be well over sold though. after oz election expect a major correction against the baht and region currencies at least.

Did you even consider that this is a sign that the any time soon in China, and that all SEA countries gonna dragged down with it.

yes have considered that, but have attributed it more to the cyclical mass re-balancing /movements of capital that the big investors see as being in their favour, these movements being a large factor in how they amass capital..

[jbrain]

you have to look at other currencies in the region to see if they have been hit too. in this case yes. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/asia-pacific/ so its not a local thai factor thats causing the dip. current shorter term trend is out of asia pacific currencies into euro region, aud looks to be well over sold though. after oz election expect a major correction against the baht and region currencies at least.

Did you even consider that this is a sign that the any time soon in China, and that all SEA countries gonna dragged down with it.

yes have considered that, but have attributed it more to the cyclical mass re-balancing /movements of capital that the big investors see as being in their favour, these movements being a large factor in how they amass capital..

Isn't what I'm saying, or do you think they move their capital without a reason? It's clear they don't move it to other SEA countries at the moment.

[that geeza]

you have to look at other currencies in the region to see if they have been hit too. in this case yes. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/asia-pacific/ so its not a local thai factor thats causing the dip. current shorter term trend is out of asia pacific currencies into euro region, aud looks to be well over sold though. after oz election expect a major correction against the baht and region currencies at least.

Did you even consider that this is a sign that the any time soon in China, and that all SEA countries gonna dragged down with it.

yes have considered that, but have attributed it more to the cyclical mass re-balancing /movements of capital that the big investors see as being in their favour, these movements being a large factor in how they amass capital..

Isn't what I'm saying, or do you think they move their capital without a reason? It's clear they don't move it to other SEA countries at the moment.

i'm saying more that they create a reason for it to move inter region (not intra region.)

Edited August 20, 2013 by that geeza

[chiang mai]

Folks chasing yield and lower risk, western markets are lower risk than Asian but previously no yield to be had in the West hence investors moved their money here to get income but at a higher level of risk - now it's reversal time and most folks are going home, the holiday's over.,

[that geeza]

Folks chasing yield and lower risk, western markets are lower risk than Asian but previously no yield to be had in the West hence investors moved their money here to get income but at a higher level of risk - now it's reversal time and most folks are going home, the holiday's over.,

yeah these financial gurus like to spread this story about the west being low risk, look at the facts. where have the recent melt downs occurred. where have investors taken a big hair cut. not in asia. further japan took decades to even partially recover from its crash so why be so quick to move west? but then again you have to follow where the big capital moves (but in this case with one foot firmly planted in the quick exit door.)

Edited August 20, 2013 by that geeza

[jbrain]

Folks chasing yield and lower risk, western markets are lower risk than Asian but previously no yield to be had in the West hence investors moved their money here to get income but at a higher level of risk - now it's reversal time and most folks are going home, the holiday's over.,

yeah these financial gurus like to spread this story about the west being low risk, look at the facts. where have the recent melt downs occurred. where have investors taken a big hair cut. not in asia. further japan took decades to even partially recover from its crash so why be so quick to move west? but then again you have to follow where the big capital moves (but in this case with one foot firmly planted in the quick exit door.)

Well, we all know where the meltdown started and how it spread, but didn't expect even in your wildest dreams that China would escape the party did you ?

I recently was told by people high up the ladder in a western multinational who is also listed on the Thai stock exchange, that they currently are heavily hedging their Asian business deals.

And no they are not investment bankers, but a company that builds power plants all over the world.

[chiang mai]

Folks chasing yield and lower risk, western markets are lower risk than Asian but previously no yield to be had in the West hence investors moved their money here to get income but at a higher level of risk - now it's reversal time and most folks are going home, the holiday's over.,

yeah these financial gurus like to spread this story about the west being low risk, look at the facts. where have the recent melt downs occurred. where have investors taken a big hair cut. not in asia. further japan took decades to even partially recover from its crash so why be so quick to move west? but then again you have to follow where the big capital moves (but in this case with one foot firmly planted in the quick exit door.)

It's market perception that the western markets are less risky than Asian, look at what happened to Japan by way of example. But are they indeed less risky, it would have to be different on a case by case basis I would guess, for a two bit investor like me there's no difference.

I also think we'll look back in years to come and see that where we are now is at a point in a cycle, that cycle began in the West and will not conclude until the East has been through similar pain, I feel certain about that.

[mommysboy]

Same as a month ago, capital flight out of Thailand due to likely ending of QE, but possibly also due to poor economic data on Thai economy.

Not exactly an avalanche and if you follow the pattern against the UKP you will likely see a few days weakening of the baht followed by a gradual strengthening of the mighty Bertie again.

[MrWorldwide]

The best advice I've ever received here is 'never make an investment in Thailand that you couldnt afford to walk away from tomorrow', and I believe that includes the country's currency. For me, I wont get on a plane to Thailand - from anywhere - if the Pacific Peso falls below 21 baht :

if you even remotely believe that 21 baht to 1 aud is possible any time soon, then it makes the first part of your advise "walk away from tomorrow', and I believe that includes the country's currency." to be nonsense. that magnitude of currency gain wouldnt happen if any type of banking melt down/irregularity occurred that would deny you access to your baht,

if you think 21 is possible not many other investments are showing anywhere near that sort of short term gain.

1. Who said anything about 'anytime soon' ? Last time I checked, 'expat' wasn't a 3-month gig. You appear to have taken the word 'tomorrow' literally ....

2. I gave 21 baht as an example of a 'don't get on the plane' figure - I didn't say I 'believe' anything. For some, that number might be '25', for others '18' : its a number. Short of massive deflation of the baht, it's a number that could hurt folk like expats. Might be 18 months, might be 5 years, and it may never happen - that's why they call them guesstimates.

3. Some of the projections for the Australian dollar include wishful thinking from retail and manufacturing : back in the mid-60 US cents, Most of the sane projections are mid 80s. End of the day, no-one knows - you don't and neither do I.

Lets imagine our dollar at 66 US cents right now - purely for the sake of argument, You wont get the xe.com rate on the street, but lets work with that, shall we ? I hand the nice man at the currency exchange a thousand AUD - ~660 USD @ 31.67baht - and he hands me less than 21K baht. That's the point where I get a cab to the airport and leave Thailand. Or I don't get on a plane to fly there in the first place. Simple. Australian exporters are jumping for joy and I'm crying in my beer - that's life.

Of course, the USD is still comparatively weak right now - *if* it gets back to anything resembling 40 baht, that '65 cent AUD' suddenly doesnt look so bad, so I can keep holidaying in Thailand, even at such a low AUD-USD rate. Simple.

End of the day, I'm not here to debate macro or microeconomic theory, and I don't give a toss about how many pips spread you can get on cross trades - I care about how many baht/ringgit I can get for a thousand AUD at any given point in time. When trained economists get it wrong year after year, I'm not about to trust the 'experts' here on TV. The same people who were predicting a 30-baht GBP and the complete destruction of the Thai economy are now crowing about the change in heir fortunes - as clueless as ever, and completely unprepared for the next blip on the radar.

To reiterate, I make absolutely no predictions re the future of any currency or economy, but I do believe in 'cut your losses' figures. 21 is my figure, and I don't care if it would take a nuclear explosion in downtown Sydney to make that happen - it's my number as of August, 2013. I hope and pray that it will never happen, but it makes 28 baht look very bloody good indeed. Those with a different perspective look back to the heady days of ~33-baht and wring their hands - I don't. Did we really believe that 1.05USD would ever be anything more than a blip on a graph ? Time to get real. .

[yoshiwara]

I don't think that if one is changing ~ US$1000 at any one time that the variation in the exchange rates make much difference at all. It is more or less chicken feed from most day to day rates.