Oil Price - Budding Economists

[bdenner]

It appears to me that the price of oil is going up unchecked. Most of the increases are related to the US, currently the oil markets are blaming the Iranian thing. George Bush seems to be spending a lot of time agitating oil rich states.

Nearly all the production lost during the US Gulf hurricanes has now been restored with NO reduction in price?

“Greed” is not an option and I feel “Inflation” is the result not the cause.

What do you think the MAIN cause is?

EDIT: Sorry guys stuffed up the new Poll form and it got deleted these were the options anyway.

World wide shortages.

George Bush is manipulating the market to his own agenda.

OPEC are manipulating the market to their own agenda.

Large increase in India and China’s growth.

Unrest with 3rd world suppliers – eg. Nigeria, Venezuela etc.

Cohesion between the oil companies.

Really can’t decide - A combination of 2 or more of the above.

Other.

Edited April 19, 2006 by bdenner

[samran]

Two words maybe:

China and India.

By the way, where is to Uranians live? Uranus?

[bdenner]

....

By the way, where is to Uranians live? Uranus?

Been one of those days. Couldn't get the Poll to work and now my 'word' spell checker has let me down. - Now corrected.

[Donz]

Its all Bush's fault.

[bendix]

Previous oil price rises have been supply-led. .. . . . ie there were problems with supplies being disrupted (eg middle east, iran/iraq wars) or the OPEC countries deliberately slowed down production to manipulate prices higher, such as what happened in the early/mid 1970s.

This oil price surge is different. It's the first to be prompted by the demand side - massive demand from oil by rapidly developing economies, most notably China and India, but also other economic tigers such as Russia and Brazil etc.

Quite simply, the oil companies can't produce enough to satisfy huge demand. The result? Higher prices.

[barryofthailand]

Due to the unknown out come of the iranian situation. Nothing to do with Bush. If Iran gets the bomb, and is able to deliver a nuclear warhead it's all over for the world. You won't have to worry about oil prices any more.

Barry

[lamphun]

The North Koreans already have the bomb so I don't see the Iranians making the world a more dangerous place compared to those nutters.

Bush threatening to use military force against Iran has had two results. The first is to upset the Iranians who don't like being pushed around. The other is to cause a panic on the oil market. So why did he threaten them ? He must know his threats are empty so they won't affect the Iranians nuclear position except to make them more intransigent. Therefore I can only surmise that he's taken a punt on oil futures.

[bdenner]

The North Koreans already have the bomb so I don't see the Iranians making the world a more dangerous place compared to those nutters.

Bush threatening to use military force against Iran has had two results. The first is to upset the Iranians who don't like being pushed around. The other is to cause a panic on the oil market. So why did he threaten them ? He must know his threats are empty so they won't affect the Iranians nuclear position except to make them more intransigent. Therefore I can only surmise that he's taken a punt on oil futures.

Yep that's my view. Bush, the egomaniac from Connecticut and ex Governor of Texas, the oil man from an oil background. He has an agenda with the power to exploit it.

[Kerryd]

Yep that's my view. Bush, the egomaniac from Connecticut and ex Governor of Texas, the oil man from an oil background. He has an agenda with the power to exploit it.

Makes you wonder eh ?

Bush Sr led the initial invasion of Iraq, after kicking them out of Kuwait. Many people wondered if he would have done the same thing if Kuwait's main export was potatoes instead of oil.

Bush Jr supposedly had a number of failed business ventures earlier in his career, mostly in the oil business. One of the companies that fronted money for his ventures is "supposedly" a shell company set up by the Saudis to invest their oil money in the US.

Many of Bush Jr's top executives and advisors were formerly employed by big oil companies.

One of GWB's first priorities after invading Iraq was to get the oil flowing again.

The entire precept for the war on Iraq was based on WMDs. They never found any. No weapons, no facilities, no traces. Now they "think" those WMDs and associated equipment may have been smuggled in to Syria 10 months before the invasion !

What does Iraq have ? The 2nd largest "proven" reserves of oil in the world.

Yet we hear nothing about the possibilty that Syria (another sponsor of terrorism) may have WMDs ! Now the rhetoric is heating up against another oil-producing nation, Iran.

Funny. Syria doesn't export a lot of oil (in fact, I've read 3 different reports that show Syrian production is dropping, and they are expected to become an oil importer within 10 years). So, despite the fact they may have Iraq's WMDs, and despite the fact Syria is a known sponsor of terrorism, nothing is mentioned.

It's all about Iran now.

What does all this mean ? Higher oil prices, higher prices for gas at the pumps, much higher profits for some companies that are already making record profits as it is !

(Oh yeah, Brazil is expected to completely stop importing oil within a year, as they have managed to switch almost everything over to ethanol instead of oil. Something other industrialized countries could have been working on for decades, but haven't for some reason).

[cclub75]

The North Koreans already have the bomb so I don't see the Iranians making the world a more dangerous place compared to those nutters.

Typical of a global mental confusion.

How can you compare North Korea with Iran ?

NC is a mafia state, ruled by a man who has only one agenda : his own survival.

Even if the state of war does still exist with South Korea, NC has no plan to attack neighbourings countries, or any political agenda as to export maxirsm leninism...

Now Iran... Here is a theological state, led by Schia, who are sectarian. This branch of Islam invented the first "suicide commando" in history.

Iran is a major sponsors of terrorism, and support many extremists organizations (Hamas, Islamic Jihad etc.). Iran wants to "wipe out" Israel.

It's official, they talk about it since their revolution in late 70's.

And Iran has oil... And therefore the ability to create serious disruptions on the world market.

So, do you feel better now ?

Edited April 19, 2006 by cclub75

[mark45y]

To be sure the Bush family makes money from the oil price increase but I think his major thrust is controlling enough oil to be able to use it as a bargaining chip with China. China more than anyone else is pushing the current demand and this is only the tip of the iceberg. There are US military bases within 250 miles of the China border on oil pipelines. There are US military bases in over 60 countries and territories. I think one of the reasons that China has not invaded Taiwan is the US can shut off Chinese oil supplies in short order.

It is my understanding that OPEC is nowhere near peak production capacity and could turn up the supply any time they wanted but have not done so. I have also read that they are at maximum production capacity now and are unable to build new rigs fast enough to replace old ones and that they are drilling new ones like crazy.

It is also my understanding that refining capacity in the US is maxed out and that any interruption in production like Katrina creates a price spike.

It would also seem to make sense that as oil prices go up the dollar would strengthen (if the US is making all of this money on oil) and the Baht weaken.

Oil is like money in the bank, do you pump it out and earn 10% on the resulting cash or do you leave it in the ground for the future appreciation.

[scotsman]

The North Koreans already have the bomb so I don't see the Iranians making the world a more dangerous place compared to those nutters.

Typical of a global mental confusion.

How can you compare North Korea with Iran ?

NC is a mafia state, ruled by a man who has only one agenda : his own survival.

Even if the state of war does still exist with South Korea, NC has no plan to attack neighbourings countries, or any political agenda as to export maxirsm leninism...

Now Iran... Here is a theological state, led by Schia, who are sectarian. This branch of Islam invented the first "suicide commando" in history.

Iran is a major sponsors of terrorism, and support many extremists organizations (Hamas, Islamic Jihad etc.). Iran wants to "wipe out" Israel.

It's official, they talk about it since their revolution in late 70's.

And Iran has oil... And therefore the ability to create serious disruptions on the world market.

So, do you feel better now ?

I think what you have said is very true and the n.c only blackmail the west to get aid. I think this price rise is all to do with demand from china - india and uncertainty of supplys.

[lamphun]

To be sure the Bush family makes money from the oil price increase but I think his major thrust is controlling enough oil to be able to use it as a bargaining chip with China. China more than anyone else is pushing the current demand and this is only the tip of the iceberg. There are US military bases within 250 miles of the China border on oil pipelines. There are US military bases in over 60 countries and territories. I think one of the reasons that China has not invaded Taiwan is the US can shut off Chinese oil supplies in short order.

It is my understanding that OPEC is nowhere near peak production capacity and could turn up the supply any time they wanted but have not done so. I have also read that they are at maximum production capacity now and are unable to build new rigs fast enough to replace old ones and that they are drilling new ones like crazy.

It is also my understanding that refining capacity in the US is maxed out and that any interruption in production like Katrina creates a price spike.

It would also seem to make sense that as oil prices go up the dollar would strengthen (if the US is making all of this money on oil) and the Baht weaken.

Oil is like money in the bank, do you pump it out and earn 10% on the resulting cash or do you leave it in the ground for the future appreciation.

Mostly valid points except that the US as a major oil importer is not benefiting from the high price of oil. A drop in the price of oil would most likely strengthen the dollar rather than the other way around. The Thai Baht seems to be climbing with the Chinese Renimbi.

Opec do have some spare capacity and there's an increase in supply from marginal fields in non Opec countries due to the high price making them profitable.

My remark about Bush having a punt on oil futures was a joke. I doubt he has the intelligence.

Edited April 19, 2006 by lamphun

[Boon Mee]

The North Koreans already have the bomb so I don't see the Iranians making the world a more dangerous place compared to those nutters.

Typical of a global mental confusion.

How can you compare North Korea with Iran ?

NC is a mafia state, ruled by a man who has only one agenda : his own survival.

Even if the state of war does still exist with South Korea, NC has no plan to attack neighbourings countries, or any political agenda as to export maxirsm leninism...

Now Iran... Here is a theological state, led by Schia, who are sectarian. This branch of Islam invented the first "suicide commando" in history.

Iran is a major sponsors of terrorism, and support many extremists organizations (Hamas, Islamic Jihad etc.). Iran wants to "wipe out" Israel.

It's official, they talk about it since their revolution in late 70's.

And Iran has oil... And therefore the ability to create serious disruptions on the world market.

So, do you feel better now ?

Yep...typical looney-left thinking that Iran wouldn't sell or give away nuclear technology to say Hamas or other terror groups...

[lamphun]

So what's your solution Boon Mee ?

[Boon Mee]

So what's your solution Boon Mee ?

Well, there really aren't a lot of 'easy' solutions here.

Bottom line though, we can't let Iran have the bomb and take out Israel as they have stated they will do. And. we can't afford to be modern-day Nevile Chamberlin's either.

Where does that leave us?

Edited April 19, 2006 by Boon Mee

[lamphun]

So what's your solution Boon Mee ?

Well, there really aren't a lot of 'easy' solutions here.

Bottom line though, we can't let Iran have the bomb and take out Israel as they have stated they will do. And. we can't afford to be modern-day Nevile Chamberlin's either.

Where does that leave us?

I don't recall the Iranians saying they were going to nuke Israel so I think your getting a bit ahead of yourself. There's a few hard truths to be faced here.

Short of a major invasion the Iranians are going to get the bomb.

Diplomatic and economic pressure on the Iranians has not worked.

The Iranians want the bomb because they regard themselves as an important country in the region and want some major leverage. India and Pakistan already have the bomb.

IMHO there is no solution here except to let them get on with it and hope they behave.

[bdenner]

.....

IMHO there is no solution here except to let them get on with it and hope they behave.

Agreed. If they or Nth Korea want it let em have it at their own peril. They will only have one shot. But in saying so there is always the possibility that the technology or even worse, the hardware, falling into terrorists hands through uncontrolled security.

[opothai]

the oil situation and price are imho are caused at this moment by

uncertainty, i.e iran. and the attacks in africa on the oil installations and the very real threat of attacks in saudi, [ it's already been tried once or twice ]

unduly high demand, china india

not much capacity at the moment to up production if problems escallate.

the biggest problem at the moment though is iran, at the moment they have leverage with oil, when the west sort out other alternatives and develope the black oil sands in canada, 7.6 billion barrells of oil, and now as the price of oil is so high they can afford to refine the rough stuff.

when this happens iran will lose leverage and importance, and being full of war mongers if they have the nuke, do you really think they would think twice about using it.

they have already threatened israel, given major funding to hamas.

with this in mind the west will not let idiots like iran have that capability.

Edited April 19, 2006 by opothai

[britmaveric]

Fear of shortage which at the present time, there is no reason for it. Pure speculation. Supplies are at an all time high.

I also think price gouging by the oil companies has heaps to do with it. The CEO of Exxon/Mobile just got a retirement packet of nearly half a billion dollars. Now if that isnt take the piss, I don't know what is.

[bdenner]

Fear of shortage which at the present time, there is no reason for it. Pure speculation. Supplies are at an all time high.

I also think price gouging by the oil companies has heaps to do with it. The CEO of Exxon/Mobile just got a retirement packet of nearly half a billion dollars. Now if that isnt take the piss, I don't know what is.

Shit yes, the oil companies are having a great time. Wouldn't it have been nice to see Exxon/Mobile build another refinery with the half billion, that seems to be the greatest bottle neck in the process of getting the final product to the consumer.

I disagree with the term "Supplies" and would use "Reserves".

[mark45y]

So what's your solution Boon Mee ?

Well, there really aren't a lot of 'easy' solutions here.

Bottom line though, we can't let Iran have the bomb and take out Israel as they have stated they will do. And. we can't afford to be modern-day Nevile Chamberlin's either.

Where does that leave us?

I don't recall the Iranians saying they were going to nuke Israel so I think your getting a bit ahead of yourself. There's a few hard truths to be faced here.

Short of a major invasion the Iranians are going to get the bomb.

Diplomatic and economic pressure on the Iranians has not worked.

The Iranians want the bomb because they regard themselves as an important country in the region and want some major leverage. India and Pakistan already have the bomb.

IMHO there is no solution here except to let them get on with it and hope they behave.

April 14, 2006

The president of Iran again lashed out at Israel on Friday and said it was "heading toward annihilation," just days after Tehran raised fears about its nuclear activities by saying it successfully enriched uranium for the first time.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called Israel a "permanent threat" to the Middle East that will "soon" be liberated. He also appeared to again question whether the Holocaust really happened.

"Like it or not, the Zionist regime is heading toward annihilation," Ahmadinejad said at the opening of a conference in support of the Palestinians. "The Zionist regime is a rotten, dried tree that will be eliminated by one storm."

Ahmadinejad provoked a world outcry in October when he said Israel should be "wiped off the map."

On Friday, he repeated his previous line on the Holocaust, saying: "If such a disaster is true, why should the people of this region pay the price? Why does the Palestinian nation have to be suppressed and have its land occupied?"

The land of Palestine, he said, referring to the British mandated territory that includes all of Israel, Gaza and the West Bank, "will be freed soon."

He did not say how this would be achieved, but insisted to the audience of at least 900 people: "Believe that Palestine will be freed soon."

"The existence of this (Israeli) regime is a permanent threat" to the Middle East, he added. "Its existence has harmed the dignity of Islamic nations."

[mark45y]

Fear of shortage which at the present time, there is no reason for it. Pure speculation. Supplies are at an all time high.

I also think price gouging by the oil companies has heaps to do with it. The CEO of Exxon/Mobile just got a retirement packet of nearly half a billion dollars. Now if that isnt take the piss, I don't know what is.

Supplies at an all time high is not what I read. Where do you get your information? Try computing the reserves as a percent of yearly use.

If my memory is correct Exxon has about a 9% market share, hardly overpowering.

As far as the money they pay the guy he made them 9.92 billion dollars profit in one three month period last year. What do you figure that’s worth? Looking at his performance I would say the guy is underpaid. People with little jobs get a little amounts of money and people with big jobs get big amounts of money. That fact very rarely goes down well with the little people in the little jobs but that is capitalism. If you want to take away the profit incentive then you have a brain and capital drain to the closest country that rewards performance with money. When you cap salaries or costs the money and brains pull out and go to where they can get the best return. Econ. 101.

Do I think the worlds oil companies are conspiring to artificially keep prices high? Of course not. The oil industry is one of the closest studied industries in the world.

Do I think OPEC is conspiring to keep supply prices artificially high. Yes of course they have always done that. But I think now they are having an oh shyite moment wondering where they are going to get the supplies for the future.

Instead of complaining about oil prices buy some oil stocks so you can hedge your expenditures. That’s what the smart money does. Oil prices are going to go 30% higher before they level or fall.

Problems are never insoluble. Some people solve them with the same effort as others take complain about them.

Do I hold a few oil stocks? Sure I do. I bought them as soon as I heard Dick Cheney was going to be the VP. That’s not rocket science.

[mark45y]

Fear of shortage which at the present time, there is no reason for it. Pure speculation. Supplies are at an all time high.

I also think price gouging by the oil companies has heaps to do with it. The CEO of Exxon/Mobile just got a retirement packet of nearly half a billion dollars. Now if that isnt take the piss, I don't know what is.

Shit yes, the oil companies are having a great time. Wouldn't it have been nice to see Exxon/Mobile build another refinery with the half billion, that seems to be the greatest bottle neck in the process of getting the final product to the consumer.

I disagree with the term "Supplies" and would use "Reserves".

It is interesting that people with absolutely no factual information at their disposal can come to conclusions about an issue.

A few of questions I would ask you.

1. Do you know where oil refineries can profitably be built?

2. Do you know how long it takes to build one?

3. Do you know what government restrictions are involved in building one?

4. Do you know how much it costs to build one?

Let me give you a few hints. You can’t build just an oil refinery you have to build a small city. And not just an ordinary city. The only place you can build a refinery in the US is in hurricane zones (you can research that or just look at where all of the oil refineries are located and ask yourself why). You have to construct a system of dry rivers and pumps to allow the flood surge from a hurricane to be pumped back out to sea before it does any damage. I don’t know if you have ever seen a hurricane and the amount of water that comes on shore but it is truly awesome. Then you have all of the new green baby government restrictions to your emissions. I don’t know if you have ever lived in an oil refinery town but let me inform you, you have to have your auto repainted every two years because of the acid in the air. A siren goes off once an hour to report a chemical spill. Living in an oil refinery town (which it is probably obvious that I have done for some period of time) is like living in a high paid hel_l.

The last new oil refinery was built in the United in 1976 (I think).

The new refineries are being built in the middle and far east. Would bet the farm on projects in India or Qatar?

Why don’t you start to lobby for the construction of a few in England to process the North sea oil? Ha, I bet that would go over big.

The same people who are complaining about the price of oil would never allow a refinery to be built anywhere near where they call home. Trust me on this one. Refineries are really nasty.

[bdenner]

It is interesting that people with absolutely no factual information at their disposal can come to conclusions about an issue.

A few of questions I would ask you.

1. Do you know where oil refineries can profitably be built?

2. Do you know how long it takes to build one?

3. Do you know what government restrictions are involved in building one?

4. Do you know how much it costs to build one?

Let me give you a few hints. You can’t build just an oil refinery you have to build a small city. And not just an ordinary city. The only place you can build a refinery in the US is in hurricane zones (you can research that or just look at where all of the oil refineries are located and ask yourself why). You have to construct a system of dry rivers and pumps to allow the flood surge from a hurricane to be pumped back out to sea before it does any damage. I don’t know if you have ever seen a hurricane and the amount of water that comes on shore but it is truly awesome. Then you have all of the new green baby government restrictions to your emissions. I don’t know if you have ever lived in an oil refinery town but let me inform you, you have to have your auto repainted every two years because of the acid in the air. A siren goes off once an hour to report a chemical spill. Living in an oil refinery town (which it is probably obvious that I have done for some period of time) is like living in a high paid hel_l.

The last new oil refinery was built in the United in 1976 (I think).

The new refineries are being built in the middle and far east. Would bet the farm on projects in India or Qatar?

Why don’t you start to lobby for the construction of a few in England to process the North sea oil? Ha, I bet that would go over big.

The same people who are complaining about the price of oil would never allow a refinery to be built anywhere near where they call home. Trust me on this one. Refineries are really nasty.

Until alternative energy sourses can be ecconomically produced the dreaded oil refineries will have to go somewhere AND there will have to be better pollution control. But <deleted> do I know? You sound like a bit of a greeny in painting such a grim picture. The refinery you described would have been shutdown years ago in Aust.

I'll bet you drive a car and use fossel fuels in one form or another so what are you suggesting in lieu of additional refineries into the near future?

[PeaceBlondie]

i agree with mark45y. his descriptions sound accurate to this guy from Houston. The ex-CEO of Exxon just said they plan ahead 40 years, and tthat is 20 US CONGRESSES!!. He also said no new refinery will be built in the usa; not profitable.

This has nothing to do with atom bomb; everything to do with oil bomb.

crappy laptop; can't write more. Bush knows nothing about oil except that high prices are better, and they want to conquer the world to secure lots of cheap oil they can sell at high prices

IMNSHO

[Gary A]

I take a much more simplistic view of the oil situation. IMHO the price is being manipulated by OPEC. The result of this manipulation has now made alternative energy, IE, bio diesel, ethanol and oil from Shale and oil sands competitive. Progress is slow developing these sources because the investors smell a rat, OPEC. When what is being developed comes on line OPEC will drop the oil prices so low that they will drive alternative energy out of business. I hope the governments of the world will see through this manipulation and support alternative energy. I hope I live to see the day when we can tell OPEC to eat their oil.

[helitool]

Here is a good article that may help http://cunningrealist.blogspot.com/

It is titled "getting ready for anything"

Another good blog is http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/

A few months ago when the Fed anounced that it would no longer publish its M3 money supply figures I cashed out of all my holdings here in the US of screw the world America and converted it all to Baht (at 40-41 per dollar) into my Thai bank accounts (about $400,000 so far). So I have put my money were my mouth is so to speak. The future of Thailand may be a little iffy and the goverment may be a little corrupt but compared to the USA I belive Thailand has the better future.

Now if a little guy like me sent that much over here don't you think that maybe the high rollers in the FX game just might be doing the same! The baht is currently about 37.7 and the dollar is getting weaker by the minute against both the Euro and the Baht. This isn't seasonal, it's fundementals at work. Within the next 3 or 4 months I predict the Baht will be at 34 to the dollar.

On the other side of the FX coin there is one FX chart that is predicting that the baht will be at 43.9 in June http://www.forecasts.org/bhat.htm. Take your pick of predictions they will all be wrong in the end!

[mark45y]

It is interesting that people with absolutely no factual information at their disposal can come to conclusions about an issue.

A few of questions I would ask you.

1. Do you know where oil refineries can profitably be built?

2. Do you know how long it takes to build one?

3. Do you know what government restrictions are involved in building one?

4. Do you know how much it costs to build one?

Let me give you a few hints. You can’t build just an oil refinery you have to build a small city. And not just an ordinary city. The only place you can build a refinery in the US is in hurricane zones (you can research that or just look at where all of the oil refineries are located and ask yourself why). You have to construct a system of dry rivers and pumps to allow the flood surge from a hurricane to be pumped back out to sea before it does any damage. I don’t know if you have ever seen a hurricane and the amount of water that comes on shore but it is truly awesome. Then you have all of the new green baby government restrictions to your emissions. I don’t know if you have ever lived in an oil refinery town but let me inform you, you have to have your auto repainted every two years because of the acid in the air. A siren goes off once an hour to report a chemical spill. Living in an oil refinery town (which it is probably obvious that I have done for some period of time) is like living in a high paid hel_l.

The last new oil refinery was built in the United in 1976 (I think).

The new refineries are being built in the middle and far east. Would bet the farm on projects in India or Qatar?

Why don’t you start to lobby for the construction of a few in England to process the North sea oil? Ha, I bet that would go over big.

The same people who are complaining about the price of oil would never allow a refinery to be built anywhere near where they call home. Trust me on this one. Refineries are really nasty.

Until alternative energy sourses can be ecconomically produced the dreaded oil refineries will have to go somewhere AND there will have to be better pollution control. But <deleted> do I know? You sound like a bit of a greeny in painting such a grim picture. The refinery you described would have been shutdown years ago in Aust.

I'll bet you drive a car and use fossel fuels in one form or another so what are you suggesting in lieu of additional refineries into the near future?

No I don’t drive a car or truck or SUV. I bought my GF a Samalor. I told her that she would keep in shape and we would not be polluting the environment. I thought this was a great idea but she had some reservations. So I hired a Tuk tuk driver on an on call basis. His little engine is not too smoky.

My take of the future is ethanol for the short term. But somebody has to propose some serious tax advantages to get it kicked off. I think when oil reaches around $100.00 a barrel it will become a plausible alternative.

[mark45y]

Here is a good article that may help http://cunningrealist.blogspot.com/

It is titled "getting ready for anything"

Another good blog is http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/

A few months ago when the Fed anounced that it would no longer publish its M3 money supply figures I cashed out of all my holdings here in the US of screw the world America and converted it all to Baht (at 40-41 per dollar) into my Thai bank accounts (about $400,000 so far). So I have put my money were my mouth is so to speak. The future of Thailand may be a little iffy and the goverment may be a little corrupt but compared to the USA I belive Thailand has the better future.

Now if a little guy like me sent that much over here don't you think that maybe the high rollers in the FX game just might be doing the same! The baht is currently about 37.7 and the dollar is getting weaker by the minute against both the Euro and the Baht. This isn't seasonal, it's fundementals at work. Within the next 3 or 4 months I predict the Baht will be at 34 to the dollar.

On the other side of the FX coin there is one FX chart that is predicting that the baht will be at 43.9 in June http://www.forecasts.org/bhat.htm. Take your pick of predictions they will all be wrong in the end!

I think it is a little early to write off the US economy. The gross domestic product of California is about 1.5 trillion. Close to that of the UK, actually just the state of California would be the ninth largest economy in the world and it is only 17% of the economy of the US. I think Thailand comes in around 500 billion which is about the same as New York city.

Just to put things in perspective the GDP of Florida is not much less than Australia and twice the GNP of Sweden.