Changing China Set to Shake World Economy, Again

[folium]

Thank you.

I would recommend community team sports and extensive charitable pursuits to bring people together. The tai chi performed by groups of seniors in open spaces in Beijing are quite pleasing. The young people are usually too busy I think.

Do you have an opinion or are we doing a rerun of a certain sketch?

"An argument is a connected series of statements intended to establish a proposition.....Argument is an intellectual process. Contradiction is just the automatic gainsaying of any statement the other person makes."

What point are you trying to make, apart from expressing a dislike of the Chinese government?

[SinglePot]

Yes. I do have an opinion. Specifically related to the OP and to broader issues which are inevitably intertwined with the Chinese economy.

So long as China has no detrimental effect on my financial, physical or spiritual well being, they can do whatever they please.

Regrettably this is probably dreaming.

[folium]

Yes. I do have an opinion. Specifically related to the OP and to broader issues which are inevitably intertwined with the Chinese economy.

So long as China has no detrimental effect on my financial, physical or spiritual well being, they can do whatever they please.

Regrettably this is probably dreaming.

Care to share your opinion with us?

[Publicus]

The graphic presented below is both revealing and ominous.

It connects to the Gini Coefficient that measures the wealth gap in a given country. In the CCP-PRC the Gini Coefficient is 0.6, which indicates an extremely high disparity of income distribution.

In fact, UN data show that a 0.4 measurement of the Gini Coefficient is the level at which the disparity produces social unrest in a country.

So in the CCP-PRC, the disparity has gone well beyond the UN's well researched findings.

Care to give some evidential support to your claim that the GINI coefficient for China is 6.0?

SWUFE is your friend.

Duelling data notwithstanding, the key question is how the government deals with inequality whether the level is at 4.7 or 6.0....

From someone who really knows about China, this is worth a read:

http://blog.oup.com/2013/10/five-reasons-why-china-has-the-most-interesting-economy-in-the-world/

I've cited the sources of the current Gini Coefficient for the CCP-PRC several times in numerous previous posts.

I've also cited numerous experts, to include Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Deutsche Bank and many others that discuss the precarious state of the economy and financial system of the CCP-PRC. There is the real estate bubble, the banking credit bubble, the shadow banking bubble and the massive debt incurred by local governments throughout the CCP-PRC that equals one-third of GDP. Much of the local government debt already is nonperforming. There's much more but just these bubbles, facts and realities are plenty enough.

It's well known and acknowledged that a bubble never ends well.

The source at your link has great difficulty finding facts and, in fact, demonstrates a determined aversion concerning facts.

Your friend at your link finds no bubbles in the CCP-PRC, which makes him eminently and immediately dismissible. Your oblivious friend at your link does acknowledge the coming crash, however, stating ever so cautiously and academically that, "However, it is the threat of social instability or of a serious financial crash that might bring China’s rapid growth to a premature end." This one sentence of his in the clouds statement is his only realistic reference, demonstrating he has only a passing nod with reality - and the briefest possible nod at that.

The CCP has created several bubbles, bubbles of gargantuan size.

Lookout below, which means all of us.

Edited October 20, 2013 by Publicus

[folium]

The graphic presented below is both revealing and ominous.

It connects to the Gini Coefficient that measures the wealth gap in a given country. In the CCP-PRC the Gini Coefficient is 0.6, which indicates an extremely high disparity of income distribution.

In fact, UN data show that a 0.4 measurement of the Gini Coefficient is the level at which the disparity produces social unrest in a country.

So in the CCP-PRC, the disparity has gone well beyond the UN's well researched findings.

Care to give some evidential support to your claim that the GINI coefficient for China is 6.0?

SWUFE is your friend.

Duelling data notwithstanding, the key question is how the government deals with inequality whether the level is at 4.7 or 6.0....

From someone who really knows about China, this is worth a read:

http://blog.oup.com/2013/10/five-reasons-why-china-has-the-most-interesting-economy-in-the-world/

I've cited the sources of the current Gini Coefficient for the CCP-PRC several times in numerous previous posts.

I've also cited numerous experts, to include Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Deutsche Bank and many others that discuss the precarious state of the economy and financial system of the CCP-PRC. There is the real estate bubble, the banking credit bubble, the shadow banking bubble and the massive debt incurred by local governments throughout the CCP-PRC that equals one-third of GDP. Much of the local government debt already is nonperforming. There's much more but just these bubbles, facts and realities are plenty enough.

It's well known and acknowledged that a bubble never ends well.

The source at your link has great difficulty finding facts and, in fact, demonstrates a determined aversion concerning facts.

Your friend at your link finds no bubbles in the CCP-PRC, which makes him eminently and immediately dismissible. Your oblivious friend at your link does acknowledge the coming crash, however, stating ever so cautiously and academically that, "However, it is the threat of social instability or of a serious financial crash that might bring Chinas rapid growth to a premature end." This one sentence of his in the clouds statement is his only realistic reference, demonstrating he has only a passing nod with reality - and the briefest possible nod at that.

The CCP has created several bubbles, bubbles of gargantuan size.

Lookout below, which means all of us.

Two simple questions..

How are you qualified to dismiss so breezily all arguments that do not precisely dovetail with your own?

What makes you so omniscient on matters re China?

Returning to the MP sketch, people come here for a discussion which means there can be more than one answer as no one has a monopoly on knowledge.

Most people ( ie those equipped with a functioning brain and the ability to digest current affairs) appreciate that there are huge issues facing China and that its government is hardly a beacon of respect for human rights ( warning alert; British understatement at work!). But you also argue that a precipitate collapse of the CCP/PRC would have little long term impact on the rest of the world as 80 % of US exports go to Canada etc

So could you just elucidate exactly what point you are trying to make? Your "wingman" SP seems to care not a fig about China if it does not impact him/her, why are you so impassioned about what happens if China if you see the impact as been hardly material if it goes seriously pear-shaped?

Has anything positive happened in China since 1949, or more realistically, since 1990?

Few people outside the PRC have positive views of the CCP but we have to play the cards that are dealt. Wishful thinking is an unhelpful distraction.

Thank you.

[harryfrompattaya]

Yeah, so, as I was saying, let's get current on the facts and with reality.

And Now China Has A Gigantic Obesity Problem, Too

Reuters

China's economic prosperity has led to a health crisis growing with alarming rates in the country obesity.

19 million Chinese are considered obese and millions more are overweight.

More and more fat reduction hospitals are springing up all over the country using fire treatments, acupuncture and cupping treatment to help obese Chinese lose the weight

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/china-obesity-2010-6?op=1#ixzz2fT63K5NQ

I like the headlines you use to capture attention.

At 19 million obese Chinese, against total Chinese numbering 1.5 billion, the percentage of obese people is thus less than 1.3%. that would make it near the absolute bottom of obesity incidence rates in the world.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2228rank.html

10 percent of the Chinese population have diabetes, and the incidence is rising fast.

One child policy accelerates the ageing demographic seen in western countries and therefore chronic diseases associated with ageing becoming increasingly prevalent.

KFC and McDonalds aren't helping them either.

Major economic problems for CCP-PRC is health service provision and an ageing work force.

You think the West has got it bad? How much of developed countries budget goes on health costs?

This will literally cripple the CCP-PRC. Unless they take the pragmatic approach of ...well let some starve. (If you know what I mean).

If you want the medical literature on the diabetes epidemic in China I will post it.

You are right this shall be the downfall of China The rich shall be American Citizens living in the United States. The poor shall suffer like before but worst with diabetes

[SinglePot]

Yeah, so, as I was saying, let's get current on the facts and with reality.

And Now China Has A Gigantic Obesity Problem, Too

Reuters

China's economic prosperity has led to a health crisis growing with alarming rates in the country obesity.

19 million Chinese are considered obese and millions more are overweight.

More and more fat reduction hospitals are springing up all over the country using fire treatments, acupuncture and cupping treatment to help obese Chinese lose the weight

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/china-obesity-2010-6?op=1#ixzz2fT63K5NQ

I like the headlines you use to capture attention.

At 19 million obese Chinese, against total Chinese numbering 1.5 billion, the percentage of obese people is thus less than 1.3%. that would make it near the absolute bottom of obesity incidence rates in the world.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2228rank.html

10 percent of the Chinese population have diabetes, and the incidence is rising fast.

One child policy accelerates the ageing demographic seen in western countries and therefore chronic diseases associated with ageing becoming increasingly prevalent.

KFC and McDonalds aren't helping them either.

Major economic problems for CCP-PRC is health service provision and an ageing work force.

You think the West has got it bad? How much of developed countries budget goes on health costs?

This will literally cripple the CCP-PRC. Unless they take the pragmatic approach of ...well let some starve. (If you know what I mean).

If you want the medical literature on the diabetes epidemic in China I will post it.

You are right this shall be the downfall of China The rich shall be American Citizens living in the United States. The poor shall suffer like before but worst with diabetes

It's the rich fat bastar** in China who have the diabetes Harry. Not the poor.

[SinglePot]

Yes. I do have an opinion. Specifically related to the OP and to broader issues which are inevitably intertwined with the Chinese economy.

So long as China has no detrimental effect on my financial, physical or spiritual well being, they can do whatever they please.

Regrettably this is probably dreaming.

Care to share your opinion with us?

The regime is toxic.

The economic, environmental and social consequences of that toxicity are still being played out.

Personally I am looking for damage limitation.

[folium]

Yes. I do have an opinion. Specifically related to the OP and to broader issues which are inevitably intertwined with the Chinese economy.

So long as China has no detrimental effect on my financial, physical or spiritual well being, they can do whatever they please.

Regrettably this is probably dreaming.

Care to share your opinion with us?

The regime is toxic.

The economic, environmental and social consequences of that toxicity are still being played out.

Personally I am looking for damage limitation.

And who is going to undertake the damage limitation? And why?

[Publicus]

Two simple questions..

How are you qualified to dismiss so breezily all arguments that do not precisely dovetail with your own?

What makes you so omniscient on matters re China?

Returning to the MP sketch, people come here for a discussion which means there can be more than one answer as no one has a monopoly on knowledge.

Most people ( ie those equipped with a functioning brain and the ability to digest current affairs) appreciate that there are huge issues facing China and that its government is hardly a beacon of respect for human rights ( warning alert; British understatement at work!). But you also argue that a precipitate collapse of the CCP/PRC would have little long term impact on the rest of the world as 80 % of US exports go to Canada etc

So could you just elucidate exactly what point you are trying to make? Your "wingman" SP seems to care not a fig about China if it does not impact him/her, why are you so impassioned about what happens if China if you see the impact as been hardly material if it goes seriously pear-shaped?

Has anything positive happened in China since 1949, or more realistically, since 1990?

Few people outside the PRC have positive views of the CCP but we have to play the cards that are dealt. Wishful thinking is an unhelpful distraction.

Thank you.

Your welcome.

Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and the long list of other global banks, corporations, investors take a realistic and analytic approach, not an academic one. Here's the real world analysis from me and then in today's report just from Nomura Securities.

The CCP's infrastructure investments are not producing returns. Exports continue to decline, and in September went negative measured against the previous September. The CCP has developed the PRC on the twin pillars of infrastructure investment and exports. Both are failing, infrastructure investments especially and in particular, hence the $22 trillion real estate bubble, just to mention one bubble among many in the CCP's economy and system of finance, to include a massive credit bubble in the shadow banking system over which Beijing hasn't any control - corruption, corruption, corruption.

Everyone (in a manner of speaking) to include the CCP knows it must realign its macroeconomy, away from infrastructure investment, which has produced several gargantuan valuation or credit bubbles, to include a staggering local government debt load that can' be resolved, to domestic production and consumption. So the race is on.

Which will occur first, which is a game you like to play? The Titanic gets turned hard to steer away from several icebergs in front of it, or just one of the icebergs hits the giant slow moving man made marvel? And the Titanic careens off a couple of the other icebergs closing in on it?

I'd head for the lifeboats (of which there are nowhere near enough).

Many of the CCP have their planes on standby and their homes purchased in Europe, N America, Australia well maintained.

NOMURA: The Chinese Recovery Is Over

But according to Nomura economist Zhiwei Zhang, this is it. This quarter marks the top, and now we're about to see deceleration.

In part, it's because this quarter and recent ones have been driven by unsustainable investment spending that can't continue, while leading indicators and other measures we've seen for September are already showing a slowdown.

Leading indicators of activity suggest China‟s recovery ended in September.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/nomura-the-chinese-recovery-is-over-2013-10#ixzz2iHKkbLXu

[SinglePot]

Are you worried about the Mekong river or the China Sea.

Are you worried about bullies in Beijing having economic leverage outside their borders.

Are you worried about the voracious soulless appetite in shopping malls and its effect on your psyche.

I can't change it. Maybe you can.

[folium]

Are you worried about the Mekong river or the China Sea.

Are you worried about bullies in Beijing having economic leverage outside their borders.

Are you worried about the voracious soulless appetite in shopping malls and its effect on your psyche.

I can't change it. Maybe you can.

Try doing a search on TV for Xayaburi re my stance on damming the Mekong and also the Hongsa lignite mine and connected power station. Both these plus a shed load more dams in Laos are an effort to make Laos an energy exporting nation, supplying electricity to LOS, funded by Thai money and built by Chinese subcontractors. The joys of globalization....

Presume you mean South or East China Sea and surprise, surprise I have expressed all sorts of concern re Chinese blue water capability in previous threads.

"Bullies" having economic clout beyond their borders? Welcome to colonialism or neo-colonialism, or just good old aggressive trade policies. These have been a constant for hundreds of years with a rich cast of players. Rarely a pretty sight if on the receiving end, but countries do tend to run their economic policies for their own benefit. The glories of Bristol, Manchester, Liverpool, London (you could probably insert your home town), were hardly built on spreading sweetness and light across the world.

Bottom line, nasty folk and their intentions are a constant and it's just a case of learning to deal with, cope with school bully.

I'll skip the shopping mall nonsense.

Changing things? Pretty damn difficult for anyone!

Edited October 21, 2013 by folium

[LawrenceChee]

Indeed this was the biggest dilemma of being CCP ...the scale alone defies anything ever managed before

When they were rock poor in the 70s, you had constant western barrage that the country needs rapid development to uplift the poor, increase living standards and prevent a human tragedy that will move through Asia .

When they have done that thru opening up to trade in the 80s, you had tons of western companies moving in with their cheap orders and trying to make the fastest buck forcing labor practices into the market that will make the EEO folk blush. This was also the start of a pollution and ecological disaster with no further thought of the future. If you asked why they were not vocal about it ...the reality was the western states were richer then and were bullies themselves in forcing this on the Chinese manufacturers

In the 90s they tried infrastructure development and found the silver bullet to manage the booming growth

Now in their latter years, they get the same barrage about the air pollution brought in through the 80s practices, human rights, shopping malls, obnoxious tourists, being too rich and buying up the world ....and being a bully

Wow to be Chinese is to be resilient and indeed for the next steps in economic reforms they should steer well clear of the western experts and opinions and just focus on being who they want to be and continue to diversify trade and ensure resources are available for their citizens and in the process try to undo a lot of the industrial pollution

I will bet 50 coins the next industrial dump of the west will be either ASEAN or India ...very sad if these countries allow economy to dictate that

By all means listen to the well intended but for the doomsayers and the negative folks ...it's just like listening to a yapping chihuahua ...lots of noise and little bite ...what a waste of time !

An identity crisis

Sent from my iPod touch using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[folium]

Two simple questions..

How are you qualified to dismiss so breezily all arguments that do not precisely dovetail with your own?

What makes you so omniscient on matters re China?

Returning to the MP sketch, people come here for a discussion which means there can be more than one answer as no one has a monopoly on knowledge.

Most people ( ie those equipped with a functioning brain and the ability to digest current affairs) appreciate that there are huge issues facing China and that its government is hardly a beacon of respect for human rights ( warning alert; British understatement at work!). But you also argue that a precipitate collapse of the CCP/PRC would have little long term impact on the rest of the world as 80 % of US exports go to Canada etc

So could you just elucidate exactly what point you are trying to make? Your "wingman" SP seems to care not a fig about China if it does not impact him/her, why are you so impassioned about what happens if China if you see the impact as been hardly material if it goes seriously pear-shaped?

Has anything positive happened in China since 1949, or more realistically, since 1990?

Few people outside the PRC have positive views of the CCP but we have to play the cards that are dealt. Wishful thinking is an unhelpful distraction.

Thank you.

Your welcome.

Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and the long list of other global banks, corporations, investors take a realistic and analytic approach, not an academic one. Here's the real world analysis from me and then in today's report just from Nomura Securities.

The CCP's infrastructure investments are not producing returns. Exports continue to decline, and in September went negative measured against the previous September. The CCP has developed the PRC on the twin pillars of infrastructure investment and exports. Both are failing, infrastructure investments especially and in particular, hence the $22 trillion real estate bubble, just to mention one bubble among many in the CCP's economy and system of finance, to include a massive credit bubble in the shadow banking system over which Beijing hasn't any control - corruption, corruption, corruption.

Everyone (in a manner of speaking) to include the CCP knows it must realign its macroeconomy, away from infrastructure investment, which has produced several gargantuan valuation or credit bubbles, to include a staggering local government debt load that can' be resolved, to domestic production and consumption. So the race is on.

Which will occur first, which is a game you like to play? The Titanic gets turned hard to steer away from several icebergs in front of it, or just one of the icebergs hits the giant slow moving man made marvel? And the Titanic careens off a couple of the other icebergs closing in on it?

I'd head for the lifeboats (of which there are nowhere near enough).

Many of the CCP have their planes on standby and their homes purchased in Europe, N America, Australia well maintained.

NOMURA: The Chinese Recovery Is Over

But according to Nomura economist Zhiwei Zhang, this is it. This quarter marks the top, and now we're about to see deceleration.

In part, it's because this quarter and recent ones have been driven by unsustainable investment spending that can't continue, while leading indicators and other measures we've seen for September are already showing a slowdown.

Leading indicators of activity suggest China‟s recovery ended in September.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/nomura-the-chinese-recovery-is-over-2013-10#ixzz2iHKkbLXu

Not sure how much first hand experience you have working with investment bank analysts, but while many of them are supremely academically (heaven forbid) gifted their analysis is still only an opinion based on available data ( or if you want to be more cynical based on the agenda of the investment bank and what positions it holds), or put another way the analysis is highly intelligent guesswork. See investment bank analyst performance ( on the whole with a few notable exceptions) in the run up to the collapse of Bear Stearns, Lehmans, Merrill etc

While it is undeniable that China faces some monumental challenges as it juggles and restructures its economy, no one can accurately assess the real scale of the problems faced and certainly have no guaranteed view on the shape of the outcome.

What I still do not understand is that in your earlier posts you were adamant that the collapse of the PRC would have no real impact on the world protected for instance by your claim that 80% of US exports head to Canada, and your intense dislike of the Chinese government is very apparent, so why worry if as you say an implosion is imminent?

I don't pretend to have all the answers, but am certainly no cheerleader for a Chinese collapse as it would make the turmoil of 2008-09 look like a breeze.

New take on the first to happen game:

1. US default

2. PRC implosion

3. EU collapses

4. Steely Dan converts to Islam

Edited October 21, 2013 by folium

[LawrenceChee]

China is engaging a Singapore practice called economic defense

Bring trade ties to every country possible and tie up your own countries success through others by looking for alternative streams in every resource

This diversity spreads the risk and ensure adequate supplies without overexposing yourself

If you want a good example look at Australia ..they survived the last financial meltdown through trade with China but relying on china alone is bad practice as their slowdown means yours. Well intended or not.

Sent from my iPod touch using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[SinglePot]

Are you worried about the Mekong river or the China Sea.

Are you worried about bullies in Beijing having economic leverage outside their borders.

Are you worried about the voracious soulless appetite in shopping malls and its effect on your psyche.

I can't change it. Maybe you can.

Try doing a search on TV for Xayaburi re my stance on damming the Mekong and also the Hongsa lignite mine and connected power station. Both these plus a shed load more dams in Laos are an effort to make Laos an energy exporting nation, supplying electricity to LOS, funded by Thai money and built by Chinese subcontractors. The joys of globalization....

Presume you mean South or East China Sea and surprise, surprise I have expressed all sorts of concern re Chinese blue water capability in previous threads.

"Bullies" having economic clout beyond their borders? Welcome to colonialism or neo-colonialism, or just good old aggressive trade policies. These have been a constant for hundreds of years with a rich cast of players. Rarely a pretty sight if on the receiving end, but countries do tend to run their economic policies for their own benefit. The glories of Bristol, Manchester, Liverpool, London (you could probably insert your home town), were hardly built on spreading sweetness and light across the world.

Bottom line, nasty folk and their intentions are a constant and it's just a case of learning to deal with, cope with school bully.

I'll skip the shopping mall nonsense.

Changing things? Pretty dam_n difficult for anyone!

You asked for an opinion. I gave it.

Your lecturing attitude is irritating.

[boomerangutang]

How is Changing China now set to 'Shake the World Economy'? I need a refresher on the OP. Meanwhile, I'll go do more important things, like hiking a trail through the nearby woods.

Edited October 21, 2013 by boomerangutang

[boomerangutang]

Put yourself in their shoes for a moment. What do you think they are doing about it?

Options are:

Repression

Do nothing

Fake reform

Do enough to head off social unrest

Full scale political reform

Foreign distraction adventure

etc, etc

Bottom line almost every politician wants to cling on to power, with legacy as a secondary objective. So motivation and thus responses tend to revolve around these two priorities.

China is at a vital crossroads managing a rebalancing of its economy while seeking to avoid social unrest. It is in everyone's interest that this hideously complicated manoeuvre is pulled off without major drama.

Political reform tends to follow economic reform but if the transition is too messy or involves a political collapse, this desired outcome can be material impacted and delayed, see Russia for more details.

To answer your question 'What do you think they are doing about it?' (in reference to their manifold challenges): from your options, I pick 'Fake Reform'

This may sound like a 'tree hugger' response (and I am, unabashedly a tree hugger): China's focus is all about people (particularly those who are rich and politically powerful), and money. People, money, people, money, ....on and on. When will they come to the realization that there are many other species plus terrain/sea to consider? Perhaps we should all resign ourselves to the idea that; since people and money are all that really matter, the environment can just tough it out as best it can, what little is left of it. Natural habitat and species (on land and in the sea) are disappearing on an hourly basis. Granted, it's worldwide, but China is at the vanguard of voracious destroyers. They're are better ways to go about it. It starts with an attitude that all natural habitat is worth preserving, and all species are special - not just humans.

The first National Park in the world was designated in the US (Yellowstone). The US now has a National Park network that is awesome. It wasn't smooth sailing. Yellowstone had army units (under General Sheridan, acting outside of gov't orders) stationed there for its first 30 years, to keep the railroads, miners, tree cutters, animal killers at bay - until Park Service staff were instated. What has China done to protect natural environment? What we see, are giant cities getting built, many of which nearly uninhabited. China uses 1/3 of the world's concrete. For what?

[SinglePot]

Quote from folium:

"Few people outside the PRC have positive views of the CCP but we have to play the cards that are dealt. Wishful thinking is an unhelpful distraction."

No we don't. I don't want to play cards dealt by a toxic regime.

So long as they keep their crap within their own borders, fine.

But that's not happening, is it.

Example. Beijing pollution is affecting forests in Japan.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-24593268

[LawrenceChee]

Put yourself in their shoes for a moment. What do you think they are doing about it?

Options are:

Repression

Do nothing

Fake reform

Do enough to head off social unrest

Full scale political reform

Foreign distraction adventure

etc, etc

Bottom line almost every politician wants to cling on to power, with legacy as a secondary objective. So motivation and thus responses tend to revolve around these two priorities.

China is at a vital crossroads managing a rebalancing of its economy while seeking to avoid social unrest. It is in everyone's interest that this hideously complicated manoeuvre is pulled off without major drama.

Political reform tends to follow economic reform but if the transition is too messy or involves a political collapse, this desired outcome can be material impacted and delayed, see Russia for more details.

 

To answer your question 'What do you think they are doing about it?' (in reference to their manifold challenges): from your options, I pick 'Fake Reform'

This may sound like a 'tree hugger' response (and I am, unabashedly a tree hugger): China's focus is all about people (particularly those who are rich and politically powerful), and money. People, money, people, money, ....on and on. When will they come to the realization that there are many other species plus terrain/sea to consider? Perhaps we should all resign ourselves to the idea that; since people and money are all that really matter, the environment can just tough it out as best it can, what little is left of it. Natural habitat and species (on land and in the sea) are disappearing on an hourly basis. Granted, it's worldwide, but China is at the vanguard of voracious destroyers. They're are better ways to go about it. It starts with an attitude that all natural habitat is worth preserving, and all species are special - not just humans.

The first National Park in the world was designated in the US (Yellowstone). The US now has a National Park network that is awesome. It wasn't smooth sailing. Yellowstone had army units (under General Sheridan, acting outside of gov't orders) stationed there for its first 30 years, to keep the railroads, miners, tree cutters, animal killers at bay - until Park Service staff were instated. What has China done to protect natural environment? What we see, are giant cities getting built, many of which nearly uninhabited. China uses 1/3 of the world's concrete. For what?

Give them time ...the world seems to be impatient that China gets everything right while being the biggest manufacturer of crap that the world needs...

It's almost like wishing your kid comes up tops in the the gifted program.

The secondary reform will promise a lot of retraction and reflection on personal consumption in Nov

I am not convinced that the crowds would stop buying at a quick rate as the marketing is sleek...latest figures in Sep predicts that China would overtake the USA in online buying by 2014 just in a short span of 15 years when alibaba first introduced it to the market.

This is a huge question mark...they need them to consume to take over the infrastructure spending ...however increasing personal consumption means increasing resources for production

How to you please everyone ...economics, environmentalist, nationalists and western opinions ? I sat in some sitting committees and my advice was always the same ...do what you are comfortable with first because you cannot please everyone and it's silly to try.

Sent from my iPod touch using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[SinglePot]

Put yourself in their shoes for a moment. What do you think they are doing about it?

Options are:

Repression

Do nothing

Fake reform

Do enough to head off social unrest

Full scale political reform

Foreign distraction adventure

etc, etc

Bottom line almost every politician wants to cling on to power, with legacy as a secondary objective. So motivation and thus responses tend to revolve around these two priorities.

China is at a vital crossroads managing a rebalancing of its economy while seeking to avoid social unrest. It is in everyone's interest that this hideously complicated manoeuvre is pulled off without major drama.

Political reform tends to follow economic reform but if the transition is too messy or involves a political collapse, this desired outcome can be material impacted and delayed, see Russia for more details.

To answer your question 'What do you think they are doing about it?' (in reference to their manifold challenges): from your options, I pick 'Fake Reform'

This may sound like a 'tree hugger' response (and I am, unabashedly a tree hugger): China's focus is all about people (particularly those who are rich and politically powerful), and money. People, money, people, money, ....on and on. When will they come to the realization that there are many other species plus terrain/sea to consider? Perhaps we should all resign ourselves to the idea that; since people and money are all that really matter, the environment can just tough it out as best it can, what little is left of it. Natural habitat and species (on land and in the sea) are disappearing on an hourly basis. Granted, it's worldwide, but China is at the vanguard of voracious destroyers. They're are better ways to go about it. It starts with an attitude that all natural habitat is worth preserving, and all species are special - not just humans.

The first National Park in the world was designated in the US (Yellowstone). The US now has a National Park network that is awesome. It wasn't smooth sailing. Yellowstone had army units (under General Sheridan, acting outside of gov't orders) stationed there for its first 30 years, to keep the railroads, miners, tree cutters, animal killers at bay - until Park Service staff were instated. What has China done to protect natural environment? What we see, are giant cities getting built, many of which nearly uninhabited. China uses 1/3 of the world's concrete. For what?

Give them time ...the world seems to be impatient that China gets everything right while being the biggest manufacturer of crap that the world needs...

It's almost like wishing your kid comes up tops in the the gifted program.

The secondary reform will promise a lot of retraction and reflection on personal consumption in Nov

I am not convinced that the crowds would stop buying at a quick rate as the marketing is sleek...latest figures in Sep predicts that China would overtake the USA in online buying by 2014 just in a short span of 15 years when alibaba first introduced it to the market.

This is a huge question mark...they need them to consume to take over the infrastructure spending ...however increasing personal consumption means increasing resources for production

How to you please everyone ...economics, environmentalist, nationalists and western opinions ? I sat in some sitting committees and my advice was always the same ...do what you are comfortable with first because you cannot please everyone and it's silly to try.

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You are losing all credibility Mr Chee supporting the toxic CCP regime.

I presume your support is financially based and it is in your economic interest to do so.

[LawrenceChee]

I am a Chinese by race and have never hidden this fact from the forum...I have done business with everyone including China...

I am looking at China being successful and having opportunities that will benefit the world as well. The world stand to lose if the 2nd biggest economy fails at this time when the world is fragile.

In Nov ...I believe the CCP will introduce measures to curb excessive spending on public projects while cutting the red tape to spur domestic consumption..this will have a direct impact on countries that are reliant on China buying namely Australia and Indonesia and African nations. I do hope then the valiant few who have been critiquing China would have governments that will pick up the slack

I remember a few years back in a project I was involved in where I went to USA to buy up bankrupt hotels ...did the Chinese owners gloat or made the Americans feel small ? No ...the business was respectfully conducted and everyone benefitted from the deal.

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[folium]

Quote from folium:

"Few people outside the PRC have positive views of the CCP but we have to play the cards that are dealt. Wishful thinking is an unhelpful distraction."

No we don't. I don't want to play cards dealt by a toxic regime.

So long as they keep their crap within their own borders, fine.

But that's not happening, is it.

Example. Beijing pollution is affecting forests in Japan.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-24593268

Sorry but you and the rest of us has little choice who we have to deal with.

The whole essence of globalization is that it enabled the developed economies to export their filthy, polluting manufacturing industries to the lower cost East. When Birmingham was the Workshop to the World and Manchester the center of the cotton industry they were hideous, polluted, unhealthy cities, with people living in filth, squalor and abject poverty. Things have changed (some would argue not much, but that's way too harsh!)

Pollution has never been too good at spotting boundaries on a map. Visit northern Thailand in March or the forests of Northern Scandinavia where acid rain, generated largely from the UK, is having such an impact.

The world's a sh***y place in many areas and many countries are run by appalling governments, but that's life. Why not applaud any effort to improve things even if done for less than noble reasons? China is now at a stage that pollution is another mighty problem, long ignored, that needs to be addressed, if only to keep the ruling party in power by addressing potential triggers of chaos and social unrest.

Here's one of Publicus' friends at Goldman Sachs on the subject:

http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/focus-on/clean-technology-and-renewables/schwartz/index.html?cid=PS_01_46_06_00_00_02_02

[SinglePot]

"I am looking at China being successful and having opportunities that will benefit the world as well. The world stand to lose if the 2nd biggest economy fails at this time when the world is fragile."

Nothing a Chinese person likes better than having leveraging over the West eh Mr Chee?

I'm English. CCP is toxic. I don't like bullies.

I do not share your optimism and confidence for phase 2 of the China economy under the CCP.

This is based on hard nosed business reality not a personal dislike for the CCP.

But I don't like their style either.

[folium]

Are you worried about the Mekong river or the China Sea.

Are you worried about bullies in Beijing having economic leverage outside their borders.

Are you worried about the voracious soulless appetite in shopping malls and its effect on your psyche.

I can't change it. Maybe you can.

Try doing a search on TV for Xayaburi re my stance on damming the Mekong and also the Hongsa lignite mine and connected power station. Both these plus a shed load more dams in Laos are an effort to make Laos an energy exporting nation, supplying electricity to LOS, funded by Thai money and built by Chinese subcontractors. The joys of globalization....

Presume you mean South or East China Sea and surprise, surprise I have expressed all sorts of concern re Chinese blue water capability in previous threads.

"Bullies" having economic clout beyond their borders? Welcome to colonialism or neo-colonialism, or just good old aggressive trade policies. These have been a constant for hundreds of years with a rich cast of players. Rarely a pretty sight if on the receiving end, but countries do tend to run their economic policies for their own benefit. The glories of Bristol, Manchester, Liverpool, London (you could probably insert your home town), were hardly built on spreading sweetness and light across the world.

Bottom line, nasty folk and their intentions are a constant and it's just a case of learning to deal with, cope with school bully.

I'll skip the shopping mall nonsense.

Changing things? Pretty dam_n difficult for anyone!

You asked for an opinion. I gave it.

Your lecturing attitude is irritating.

Re your second point have a read of Matthew 7:1-5.

[Scott]

Stay on topic please.

[SinglePot]

Are you worried about the Mekong river or the China Sea.

Are you worried about bullies in Beijing having economic leverage outside their borders.

Are you worried about the voracious soulless appetite in shopping malls and its effect on your psyche.

I can't change it. Maybe you can.

Try doing a search on TV for Xayaburi re my stance on damming the Mekong and also the Hongsa lignite mine and connected power station. Both these plus a shed load more dams in Laos are an effort to make Laos an energy exporting nation, supplying electricity to LOS, funded by Thai money and built by Chinese subcontractors. The joys of globalization....

Presume you mean South or East China Sea and surprise, surprise I have expressed all sorts of concern re Chinese blue water capability in previous threads.

"Bullies" having economic clout beyond their borders? Welcome to colonialism or neo-colonialism, or just good old aggressive trade policies. These have been a constant for hundreds of years with a rich cast of players. Rarely a pretty sight if on the receiving end, but countries do tend to run their economic policies for their own benefit. The glories of Bristol, Manchester, Liverpool, London (you could probably insert your home town), were hardly built on spreading sweetness and light across the world.

Bottom line, nasty folk and their intentions are a constant and it's just a case of learning to deal with, cope with school bully.

I'll skip the shopping mall nonsense.

Changing things? Pretty dam_n difficult for anyone!

You asked for an opinion. I gave it.

Your lecturing attitude is irritating.

Re your second point have a read of Matthew 7:1-5.

No thanks. I'm Buddhist.

[folium]

Gosh. Never realised that being Buddhist (or at least your branch of it) means you can't read.....

[SinglePot]

Gosh. Never realised that being Buddhist (or at least your branch of it) means you can't read.....

Ever lived in China?

[Publicus]

This post is necessary to help those people who resist the recently recognized global realization that the CCP-PRC command and corruption economy and upside down financial system is in profound and irreversable trouble.

There are several gargantuan bubbles in the CCP's economy and financial systems, to include the property market, the banks which are all state owned, the debt of State Owned Enterprises, the shadow banking system which is outside the control of the CCP. There also is a very serious problem of local government debt throughout the CCP, as local governments have used both the banks and the shadow banking systems to fund their purchase of real estate and to fund their own fraudulent property development projects, from housing to malls.

Overall, however, the fact is the entire CCP's command and corruption economy and mangled financial systems - the entire macro economy - is one huge bubble, and EVERYONE knows that a bubble never ends well.

Compounding the wrongheadedness of the CCP's idea that the way to structure and organize an economy is along the lines of a one party, state, corporate, industrial, military complex, is the pervasive, massive, endemic corruption that is at the core of every kind of economic and financial activity of the CCP-PRC. Almost no one considers the impact and effect of the extensive and colossal corruption, corruption, corruption that is in the nature of the Chinese and which transfers to the absolute power of the CCP. The titanic and monster corruption of the CCP makes the success of the CCP's systems impossible and makes it impossible to reform them.

China's Big Economic Bubble: 5 Reasons It's Sure to Burst

China is in the midst of a housing bubble, and the government has initiated policies to try and slow growth of second and third home buying. But many couples are getting around the new policies by faking divorce, so they can borrow more money. Creative Common

http://www.ibtimes.com/chinas-big-economic-bubble-5-reasons-its-sure-burst-834911

The True Chinese Credit Bubble: 240% Of GDP And Soaring

Several months ago we pointed out something not fully grasped by the broader public: the Chinese corporate debt bubble is the largest of any developed and developing country, and at 151% of GDP (and rising rapidly) is the biggest in the world.

What is better known is that corporate debt is just one part of the total debt picture, which also includes consumer loans, government debt and other "shadow debt" credit in the case of China.

As the chart below from Goldman shows, in 2013 the total credit outstanding in China is expected to rise to a whopping 240% of GDP, and continue rising from there at an ever faster pace.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-11/true-chinese-credit-bubble-240-gdp-and-soaring

The China Bubble is About to Burst

Last year it was revealed that in Beijing alone, there were 3.812 million vacant homes.

That's over one million more vacancies than in the entire United States at that time.

Jim Chanos, president of Kynikos Associates, has been warning about a Chinese housing bubble for several months. It's these vacancies, he believes, that will contribute to the burst: “In China's GDP calculations, they don't look at final sales, they look at production. So a condo being built but not sold contributes to GDP.”

http://www.wealthdaily.com/report/the-china-bubble-is-about-to-burst/872

If the Chinese Bubble Bursts…

A lesson of history is that bubbles eventually burst. A bursting of stock and real estate bubbles in China would be disastrous for the Chinese economy, for the banks, for Chinese individuals, and for the ability to tap into foreign-financed domestic activities and business development.

The declines in credit, cutbacks in consumption, increases in unemployment, and drying-up of external finance that would ensue would take China’s growth down to the low single digits, leading to social and political unrest. The direct and indirect demands for the exports of other countries would hugely contract—Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and the United States, for example.

A global recession and stock market collapses could well occur. In turn, numerous economies in Asia, central Europe, some in Latin America such as Brazil, and the United States would fall into recession.

http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_F10_ChinaBubbleSymp.pdf

Edited October 21, 2013 by Publicus