What If We All Disappeared Tomorrow?

[klubex99]

What would happen to Thailand's economy if all farangs disappeared tomorrow?

I am not talking about all foreigners. I am talking about all the farang from westernized countries who bring money into the country month after month.

I have done a quick study of the statistics, and I repeat 'QUICK' study, and my figures will be far from accurate, but most are based on good sources such as wikipedia and the world travel and tourism council.

2 very important things to note.

1... I have separated expats from tourists for the purpose of financial burdening from a % of expats and the fact that tourism is purely an injection of one way income to the economy.

2... I have decided to severely under-cook some of the figures as not to accidentally inflate the statistics, so there is room for speculation that the figures could well be bigger.

Tourism (2012-2013)

GDP: Direct Contribution.

The direct contribution of Travel & Tourism to GDP was THB825.6bn (7.3% of total GDP) in

2012, and is forecast to rise by 6.2% in 2013 to THB876.8bn

GDP: Total Contribution.

The total contribution of Travel & Tourism to GDP was THB1,896.7bn (16.7% of GDP) in 2012,

and is forecast to rise by 7.4% in 2013 to THB2,037bn

EMPLOYMENT: Direct Contribution

In 2012 Travel & Tourism directly supported 2,020,000 jobs (5.2% of total employment). This is expected to rise by 10.1% in 2013 to 2,224,020 jobs

EMPLOYMENT: Total Contribution

In 2012, the total contribution of Travel & Tourism to employment, including jobs indirectly supported by the industry, was 12.4% of total employment (4,818,500 jobs). This is expected to rise by 9.4% in 2013 to 5,273,000 jobs

VISITOR EXPORTS

Visitor exports generated THB1,022.4bn (12.1% of total exports) in 2012. This is forecast to

grow by 5.7% in 2013 to THB1,080.3bn

INVESTMENT

Travel & Tourism investment in 2012 was THB227.5bn, or 6.8% of total investment. It should

rise by 15.9% in 2013 to THB263.7bn

Notice the measly, tight-fisted investment in tourism compared to what it brings to the country?.....

Income Generated From Expats.

As I said earlier, I am going to estimate these roughly with some quite drastic under-cooking so that the true figures should be a lot more optimistic in Thailand's favour.

There are millions of foreigners living in Thailand, but I am only going to use figures pertaining to foreigners living here full time from westernized countries that are more likely to be bringing wealth into the country. I will ignore the foreign workers from the poor countries whom are more likely to be costing Thailand by taking money out of the economy to transfer to their home country.

So the figures I have found seem to rally around the 250,000 mark, so that will be my guide marker.

Based on average pensions and basic salaries, savings etc etc.... I would estimate that a conservative figure per expat of monthly income from western sourced funds to be no less than $1000 pm (THB30,000) but for the purpose of under cooking the figures, lets half that amount to $500pm.

Personally I have brought in over THB 8mil in the last 3 years so my contributions will offset a few farang who are living off just a few hundred USD a month.

So anyway, that would equate to $125,000,000pm (THB3.75bn) or THB45bn per year. The actual figure will be much higher.

Now since the past 20 years when Thailand started to take off as a tourist and expat Mecca, how much money can we say has been injected into the Thai economy from foreigners over that timeframe, bearing in mind that not all the money would stay here, but a large % would certainly remain permanently in the economy.

So if we extrapolated those figures across a 20 year period starting at 2013 and declining by 5% per year to get an average rough figure.

Well this is what I get.

Tourism THB 26.13 Trillion

Expats THB 577.36 Billion

Visitor Exports THB 13.7 Billion

Total THB 40.4 Trillion

Lets say that not all that money stays in the economy for one reason or another. Although the vast majority of it will stay here, rather than be removed by the entities that brought it in.... Let's be brutal and say the sources removed 40% of that money.

That would still leave THB24.2 Trillion Baht (That's more than DOUBLE Thailand's entire current GDP)

What happened to all that money then? Sort of makes that 2-2 Trillion they are trying to scrounge seem insignificant.

So that is what foreigners have been worth to Thailand.

What would happen to Thailand if over the next 5 years or so, some other destination took away all the interest from LOS?

Please feel free to speculate on your own idea of the figures.

Edited October 8, 2013 by klubex99

[uptheos]

They would be short of people to do this kind of research, I guess.

[krisb]

Nah I'm stuck on the Tony mystery sorry. Go check the swamp for us tomorrow if you have time.

[klubex99]

They would be short of people to do this kind of research, I guess.

I don't think the people who did the research actually live here.

[krisb]

I say the baht would be worth alot less. That's a guess and I have no real idea. I'm no that edumacated.

[BookMan]

Nah I'm stuck on the Tony mystery sorry. Go check the swamp for us tomorrow if you have time.

I agree. Klubex should be putting these research skills to the more pressing issue of where Tony is

[uptheos]

They would be short of people to do this kind of research, I guess.

I don't think the people who did the research actually live here.

OK they would be short on people to post the research results on TV.

[Dr Robert]

figures are rubbery, but you counteract that pretty well by understating the numbers, which makes this a quite remarkable set of statistics. that should draw the attention of the government looking to milk some extra tea money, probably by introducing a new taxation regime. Some things are better left unsaid.

[theblether]

There would be a revolution In Isaan. Definite.

Can you imagine the amount of money that would drain from the province?

The Isaan bar girl brigade would totter towards BKK on their over sized kitten heels and demand the return of we farangs, and they would be backed by an army of p*ssed of relatives that suddenly had to find jobs.

[kevvy]

send your report to the government and they might think about giving all of us permanent visa's

[GuestHouse]

Of course each of us will eventually depart, the impact of which will depend upon how we each individually established our life here.

If you've supported and encouraged a financial dependency around the income you bring then yes that's going to be tough for someone.

But not just the income, those Farang Mansions out in the sticks, each built larger and flashier than the predecessors - either the families in them rush to find another benifactor or, ten years after the current farang cash stream dries up these places will be a wreck and a milstone around the knecks of the people who own them.

[klubex99]

I was more amazed by the difference in the value of tourism versus expats...

That would explain a lot why the Thai Government are so hands on where tourism are concerned and quite frankly couldn't give a monkey's nut sack about the expats.

[Kudel]

Op forgot all Thai woman working and living abroad and sending money to the provences no taxes paid in Thailand of course and under tax law in my home country foreigners sending money to their home country's can get tax discounts for doing this.

In 2007 the other newspaper wich cant be mentioned here had an artikel about money flowing into Buriram province from abroad yearly and the amounts mentioned in said artikel would make some people's head spin.Poor provinces my @rse.

[klubex99]

Op forgot all Thai woman working and living abroad and sending money to the provences no taxes paid in Thailand of course and under tax law in my home country foreigners sending money to their home country's can get tax discounts for doing this.

In 2007 the other newspaper wich cant be mentioned here had an artikel about money flowing into Buriram province from abroad yearly and the amounts mentioned in said artikel would make some people's head spin.Poor provinces my @rse.

Yes, I hear ya.

I wonder how much foreign money is flowing directly into Isaan per month.

[kikoman]

Please do not include me in you stats, as I do not feel like a 2nd class citizen in Thailand as I was considered in the states. I live a much better life than I could live on the same amount of money back in the old country and I would not even consider leaving,

Thailand tourism industry the bulk of which come from Asian countries with the usual Western tourist, while it would effect the Thai economy some, Expats exaggerate their value to the Thai economy, Tourist spend more money in Thailand then the expat population does, most expats budget their money on a month to month bases, as tourist spend freely for the time they are here,

I for one would like for those expats that dislike Thailand to leave, I am tired of the whining, 90 day extension, 90 day extension!

Cheers:

[benalibina]

Op forgot all Thai woman working and living abroad and sending money to the provences no taxes paid in Thailand of course and under tax law in my home country foreigners sending money to their home country's can get tax discounts for doing this.

In 2007 the other newspaper wich cant be mentioned here had an artikel about money flowing into Buriram province from abroad yearly and the amounts mentioned in said artikel would make some people's head spin.Poor provinces my @rse.

Yes, I hear ya.

I wonder how much foreign money is flowing directly into Isaan per month.

1 person living abroad transfers IMO minimum 5.000 bth a month.

[Bangkokhatter]

Please do not include me in you stats, as I do not feel like a 2nd class citizen in Thailand as I was considered in the states. I live a much better life than I could live on the same amount of money back in the old country and I would not even consider leaving,

Thailand tourism industry the bulk of which come from Asian countries with the usual Western tourist, while it would effect the Thai economy some, Expats exaggerate their value to the Thai economy, Tourist spend more money in Thailand then the expat population does, most expats budget their money on a month to month bases, as tourist spend freely for the time they are here,

I for one would like for those expats that dislike Thailand to leave, I am tired of the whining, 90 day extension, 90 day extension!

Cheers:

Given the fact most tourists only come for 2/3 weeks a year i doubt they spend more than the average ex-pat over a year. No comment on moaning ex-pats !

[Kudel]

Op forgot all Thai woman working and living abroad and sending money to the provences no taxes paid in Thailand of course and under tax law in my home country foreigners sending money to their home country's can get tax discounts for doing this.

In 2007 the other newspaper wich cant be mentioned here had an artikel about money flowing into Buriram province from abroad yearly and the amounts mentioned in said artikel would make some people's head spin.Poor provinces my @rse.

Yes, I hear ya.

I wonder how much foreign money is flowing directly into Isaan per month.

1 person living abroad transfers IMO minimum 5.000 bth a month.

20.000 baht would be more to the point,whatever you believe man.

[benalibina]

Read read read, minimum !!!

Sent from my GT-P5100 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[NanLaew]

Oh look! Another 'they don't appreciate us' thread has turned into an Isaan whore bash... my, how unusual.

[baboon]

It isn't going to happen ever, unless the Thais start engaging in out and out genocide at some point, which I find unlikely.

[klubex99]

Please do not include me in you stats, as I do not feel like a 2nd class citizen in Thailand as I was considered in the states. I live a much better life than I could live on the same amount of money back in the old country and I would not even consider leaving,

Thailand tourism industry the bulk of which come from Asian countries with the usual Western tourist, while it would effect the Thai economy some, Expats exaggerate their value to the Thai economy, Tourist spend more money in Thailand then the expat population does, most expats budget their money on a month to month bases, as tourist spend freely for the time they are here,

I for one would like for those expats that dislike Thailand to leave, I am tired of the whining, 90 day extension, 90 day extension!

Cheers:

First off....

Asian tourists don't spend nearly as much as westernized tourists do. Asian tourist culture is firmly group tour operators that include everything from accommodation, flight, internal travel, food and drink and the whole tour is controlled. Asian tourists will spend little more than a few bucks here and there on souvenirs or the occasional beer or wine.

It is the westernized tourists who are spending freely, their tourism culture is the independent style with only paying for accommodation and flight, and everything else they pay extra for. Which accounts for the difference between 'Direct Contribution' and 'Total Contribution'. But lets say that Asians are spending the same as farangs.

Now the difference between the tourists and the expats is that for every expat living here, there are 120 tourists.

So if there was an expat for every tourist, that THB45bn a year would equate to THB5.4 Trillion almost double what tourism is worth when the figures are extrapolated, and that is based on very conservative expat contribution... You may be able to double that expat contribution figure.

So there ya go..... Expats ARE worth more 'individually' than tourists.

So maybe the Thai government have had their priorities stacked up in the wrong order, and made ought to be also promoting Thailand as the 'hub of retirement'. Rather than throwing up barriers.

Also.... I think you may have landed on the wrong thread. Nobody has whined about 90 day extensions in this thread. Nobody even mentioned being second class.

[Bender]

Before i used to read TV for the news section and general forum. Now i read it to see what you gonna say

But honestly, some thai tycoon can make a good movie of it: Farang Armagedon ( or The End of Issan Civilization)

[klubex99]

Oh look! Another 'they don't appreciate us' thread has turned into an Isaan whore bash... my, how unusual.

Erm..... Since when was this a 'they don't appreciate us' thread?

This thread actually is in response to all the other 'they don't appreciate us' threads. Because it shows statistically what our value here is the Thailand and its economy and what good it brings in relation to employment etc. Rather than just whinging about this and that with no real statistical data, at least this thread opens up the eyes and minds to show many who were not aware of the data.

With regards to Isaan whore bashing. I know someone mentioned Thais working abroad and sending money back to isaan. Since when was that whore bashing? Who said everyone from Isaan is a whore? .... YOU DID! by your very statement.

Look, I know its just gone midnight and you are probably pissed on chang. Which would explain your irrational outburst there.

I hate it when people bash Newcastle Utd, because i like Newcastle United. I hate it when people bash rock music, because I like rock music, I hate it when people bash smoking, because I enjoy smoking..... I can see why you hate it when people bash Isaan whores

[kikoman]

BS there was 22 million tourist that came to Thailand in 2012, the biggest year for tourism in Thailand. they spend a lot more money than expats that claim 100 - 200 baht is too expensive for them to visit Thailand's tourist sites, they also complain that the cost of living is becoming to expensive. Most spend their money on Booze and women.

As most tourist are going to be here for a short time, they pay top dollar for every thing, during the high season most of the more expensive hotel are fully occupied, you would need a very large expat community to spend more money than 22 million tourist.

Expat greatly exaggerate their financial contribution to the Thai economy. You leave and some other retiree will move to take you place..

Cheers:

[klubex99]

BS there was 22 million tourist that came to Thailand in 2012, the biggest year for tourism in Thailand. they spend a lot more money than expats that claim 100 - 200 baht is too expensive for them to visit Thailand's tourist sites, they also complain that the cost of living is becoming to expensive. Most spend their money on Booze and women.

As most tourist are going to be here for a short time, they pay top dollar for every thing, during the high season most of the more expensive hotel are fully occupied, you would need a very large expat community to spend more money than 22 million tourist.

Expat greatly exaggerate their financial contribution to the Thai economy. You leave and some other retiree will move to take you place..

Cheers:

Actually, you are correct about the 22.3 million. With the 2013 figures up by 20.00% and currently standing at 17.4 million up to the end of August 2013. The overall forecast is actually for 27 million tourism visitors.

My 30 million was from the fact that I had been looking at foreign arrivals which include business visitors etc.

If you bothered to read my last figures correctly, you would have seen that there is more than enough evidence to suggest that one expat spends more than one tourist when the figures are extrapolated, making an expat worth more than a visitor.

Please go to the dictionary and look up 'extrapolate'.

Nobody mentioned that 250,000 expats spend more than 22 million tourists, but on a 1 to 1 basis, expats spend loads more... If $500 a month (very conservative figure) then that is $6000 a year, how many tourists spend that 'in a short time' as you put it.

Edited October 8, 2013 by klubex99

[givenall]

Thai girls have to go with indian or arabs which they do not like

[Pui]

BS there was 22 million tourist that came to Thailand in 2012, the biggest year for tourism in Thailand. they spend a lot more money than expats that claim 100 - 200 baht is too expensive for them to visit Thailand's tourist sites, they also complain that the cost of living is becoming to expensive. Most spend their money on Booze and women.

As most tourist are going to be here for a short time, they pay top dollar for every thing, during the high season most of the more expensive hotel are fully occupied, you would need a very large expat community to spend more money than 22 million tourist.

Expat greatly exaggerate their financial contribution to the Thai economy. You leave and some other retiree will move to take you place..

Cheers:

This is absolutely true.

While Thailand has a huge tourism industry if all the expats went home it would not effect GDP in anyway.

Lets not confuse what Tourists spend with what Expats living here spend.

Thailand generates about 70% of GDP from Exports. 7% from tourism.

What expats spend (and most live a fairly frugal existence) doesn't effect Thailand as a whole.

So as kikoman correctly points out "Expat greatly exaggerate their financial contribution to the Thai economy."

This statement is absolutely spot on.

[oxo1947]

"What would happen to Thailand's economy if all farangs disappeared tomorrow?"

There is the other side of the coin Klubex99---- I can hear the screams now if they actually told you / us to go.

We / I live here because I find it suits me better than the other 4 countries I have lived & worked in---when that isn't the situation, then I will look for a greener pasture.

[skyaslimit]

Asian economic giants are more important for Thailand, look east is the policy of this century.