What If We All Disappeared Tomorrow?

[kikoman]

Klubex99,

Please do not attempt to manipulate what I stated in my post, The question the OP (you) asked was, "What if we all disappeared tomorrow" what effect would it have on the Thai economy,

Your point is that on a one to one bases a expat spends more than a tourist, while I would also dispute that, it was not the question that you as the OP asked, plain and simple!

The underlying message is that the expat population contributes more to the Thai economy that tourism, which no matter how you "extrapolate" it, is not accurate,

Your conservative figure of $500. dollars expat spending per month, a tourist spends that amount on a 5 star hotel room in 2 days.

Cheers:

Edited October 9, 2013 by kikoman

[stickylies]

It isn't going to happen ever, unless the Thais start engaging in out and out genocide at some point, which I find unlikely.

genocide needs dedication, discipline, concentration, motivation, etc. in other words: will never happen.

[kurnell]

I have friends that worked on the various mass transit systems in Bangkok. From what I understand, if it were left to the locals to survey and manage the lines, platforms etc then they never would have joined. We'd have another series of 'stonehenges' all over Bangkok collecting rain water.

[al007]

So the figures I have found seem to rally around the 250,000 mark, so that will be my guide marker.

Based on average pensions and basic salaries, savings etc etc.... I would estimate that a conservative figure per expat of monthly income from western sourced funds to be no less than $1000 pm (THB30,000) but for the purpose of under cooking the figures, lets half that amount to $500pm.

Personally I have brought in over THB 8mil in the last 3 years so my contributions will offset a few farang who are living off just a few hundred USD a month.

So anyway, that would equate to $125,000,000pm (THB3.75bn) or THB45bn per year. The actual figure will be much higher.

I believe the figure for ex pat contribution to be very substantially higher, and even my figures will be understated, remember generally 10% of the people have 90%of the wealth

Lets assume the 250,000 for expats is correct, this is likely to come from government staistics, and will be based on marriage, retirement, and education visas, those on muti tourist visas will be excluded, and also include probably most of the negative crowd and those living below the poverty level even here

Most of those on marriage extensions and retirement extensions spend a minimum of 30 % more than the 400,000 and 800,000 required to get those extensions

So say 1/3 marriage , 2/3 retirement

Marriage 250,000*1/3 =83,333 * 400,000 plus 30% equates to 43,333,000,0000 or 43.3 Billion batt per annum

Retirement 250,000 *2/3 = 166,667 * 800,000 plus 30% equates to 173,333,680,000 or 173.3 Billion batt per annum

In total some 217 Billion batt per annum, not insignificant, the figures are not double checked but it is the principle rather than the detail that is important

The OP said his figures were conservative but I am not sure he was aware just how conservative, I also believe my figures are conservative, the difficult figure to verify is the 250,000

I will leave it to the nit pickers to audit what I have said

I prepare the above on the basis I am but a simple retired Chartered Accountant, who loves this country, has a far higher standard of living than I could have in the UK, and I spend very significantly more than any of the figures quoted above

I am today, and just for today, happily married in Issan, have a beautiful large house on five rai, employ a couple of people full time, have four large dogs, and contribute to the bulk of the upkeep of another five people

We have brought running water and electric to about another ten homes

Thailand needs the expats but not the moaners and groaners who should pack up and go home to theor social security benefits

[catweazle]

What if the whole human population would disappear tomorrow from planet earth?

What if Obama would ever openly be challenged to describe what he really meant when he babbled "change" and "yes, we can!"

What if all US troops would disappear from the countries they have in a stranglehold?

What if planet X comes?

What if the sun dies?

What if bigfoot really exists?

What if the moon landing was a fake?

What if all other babies in this world would suddenly receive as much attention and media hype as baby George?

What if the dollar collapses?

What if all children find out that Santa Claus is a fake?

What if the Thai bashers and 30 day tourist visa whiners would finally (please) disappear?

So many questions, so little time...

Edited October 9, 2013 by catweazle

[klubex99]

Klubex99,

Please do not attempt to manipulate what I stated in my post, The question the OP (you) asked was, "What if we all disappeared tomorrow" what effect would it have on the Thai economy,

Your point is that on a one to one bases a expat spends more than a tourist, while I would also dispute that, it was not the question that you as the OP asked, plain and simple!

The underlying message is that the expat population contributes more to the Thai economy that tourism, which no matter how you "extrapolate" it, is not accurate,

Your conservative figure of $500. dollars expat spending per month, a tourist spends that amount on a 5 star hotel room in 2 days.

Cheers:

Lol.... sheeeesh!

Go back and read the OP properly this time.

Or let me put it here for you where I mentioned in 3 places exactly what the OP was questioning.

Direct Quotes from OP

What would happen to Thailand's economy if all farangs disappeared tomorrow?

I am not talking about all foreigners. I am talking about all the farang from westernized countries who bring money into the country month after month.

So that is what foreigners have been worth to Thailand.

What would happen to Thailand if over the next 5 years or so, some other destination took away all the interest from LOS?

These are the glaring questions you completely missed or just 'brushed over'... Where does it say anywhere in the OP that I was asking about if only the expats left??? That has just come out of your own mind and nowhere else.

So basically, it is yourself that has been doing the massaging.

It is obvious that I am asking what would happen if all the farang (westernized) tourists and expats vanished... what would happen to the Thai economy... It's a simple as that. I will get my children to read it, and see if they can understand it. I am sure they will.

What would been the point of the OP to add all the tourist financial data if the OP was not including the tourist dollars?

You claim there is an 'underlying message'..... lol

It couldn't be more straightforward....... underlying?

You also point out a tourist spends on 2 nights in a 5 star hotel than an expat spends in a month.... Way to go.... you just used the tiny proportion of super rich tourists against a very conservative expat eking out an existence.... again, massaging.

'the expat population contributes more to the Thai economy that tourism'... as you say.

Again, in the OP it clearly shows expats contribute 45 billion versus tourist at 3117 Billion.

So 27 million tourists contribute 3117 Billion works out at THB115,444 per tourist.

While a conservative expat on a mere THB15,000 a month is THB180,000 a year.

So on a fair average mean and not your figure massaging top spender versus bottom feeder, it shows that an expat will bring more in than a tourist on a 1 against 1 ratio.

I am not the idiot you make me out to be. My post is not one that you would expect to see from an idiot.

Edited October 9, 2013 by klubex99

[lineofentry]

Of all the 'professions' , whores are near the top on the integrity list.

[qdinthailand]

Just disappearing - like an "end-times" kind of thing - isn't reality.

We would all have to sell our assets (or want to sell anyway) and get a realistic price for same.

To suddenly think that we wouldn't crash the market trying to sell our assets all at once so we could disappear tomorrow wouldn't be realistic, so we'd all have to sort of 'trickle out' gradually, over time.

Of course, some people (maybe the Chinese), sensing an opportunity, would probably come in to fill the void left by the sellers/departures, so they would replace us at pennies on the dollar, and things would be just the same for the Thai government.

Actually, I didn't read all of what you had to say on this - it gave me a headache after the first few lines - but I hope that some of what I just said would reasonably dispell a lot of your nonsense. We don't matter as much as you may think.

[Emdog]

One other aspect of contributions of expats is that most of us I would assume stay here through low season, the wet season. So our piddly spending often can make the difference between making it and not for local businesses.

[sirchai]

Let's see it from another view. What would the country look like if no westernized people would have lived here and still do?

Just thinking about what one foreigner on holiday in Pattaya usually leaves in the country,or others who work as teachers, etc who spent all their money here, while Filipinos send all their earnings back home, it would be a disaster for Thailand.-

[thhMan]

Please do not include me in you stats, as I do not feel like a 2nd class citizen in Thailand as I was considered in the states. I live a much better life than I could live on the same amount of money back in the old country and I would not even consider leaving,

Thailand tourism industry the bulk of which come from Asian countries with the usual Western tourist, while it would effect the Thai economy some, Expats exaggerate their value to the Thai economy, Tourist spend more money in Thailand then the expat population does, most expats budget their money on a month to month bases, as tourist spend freely for the time they are here,

I for one would like for those expats that dislike Thailand to leave, I am tired of the whining, 90 day extension, 90 day extension!

Cheers:

So you feel its ok for Thais to get residency and all rights provided by your country and not have the same in return?

Im happy you dont feel 2nd class, but the fact is, without those rights, that is exactly what we are.

I for one would like all those expats that dislike Thailand, for not getting the same rights as Thais, to keep battling away, month after month, avoiding accidents that are not your fault (but still get blamed), having to succumb to the immigration (like a common criminal reporting to their parole officer) and to those that have bought home in a Thai name and wonder if at any time, you get booted out and left penniless.. You keep your hopes up and hope that Thailand will one day, treat us as people who do have rights

Anyway, great comment kikoman

[klubex99]

Just disappearing - like an "end-times" kind of thing - isn't reality.

We would all have to sell our assets (or want to sell anyway) and get a realistic price for same.

To suddenly think that we wouldn't crash the market trying to sell our assets all at once so we could disappear tomorrow wouldn't be realistic, so we'd all have to sort of 'trickle out' gradually, over time.

Of course, some people (maybe the Chinese), sensing an opportunity, would probably come in to fill the void left by the sellers/departures, so they would replace us at pennies on the dollar, and things would be just the same for the Thai government.

Actually, I didn't read all of what you had to say on this - it gave me a headache after the first few lines - but I hope that some of what I just said would reasonably dispell a lot of your nonsense. We don't matter as much as you may think.

No... That is purely YOUR assessment, I didn't say end of times style. I said if everyone found a new LOS and made a mass exodus over 5 years.

Why would the Chinese come and buy your assets? What is stopping the Chinese from coming and doing that already? There are plenty of cheap assets sat right next to yours mate. They don't need yours.

You need to look at how an economy gets its money to stay buoyant.

You don't make any sense at all.

Pure nonsense.

So you think the loss of 3.5 trillion per year won't make any difference..... Get real. That's around $116 Billion USD a third of the GDP.

If you can't be arsed to read the OP, don't bother commenting, and that goes for any thread.

Edited October 9, 2013 by klubex99

[marell]

There would be a revolution In Isaan. Definite.

Can you imagine the amount of money that would drain from the province?

The Isaan bar girl brigade would totter towards BKK on their over sized kitten heels and demand the return of we farangs, and they would be backed by an army of p*ssed of relatives that suddenly had to find jobs.

Has Isaan become a province?

[Totster]

I think the OP should think less about what he (and other farangs) contribute and more about what he (and they) don't

totster

[klubex99]

By the way... Just for the sake of clarity.

The 250,000 expats are full timers living here on 'non tourist' visas.

[klubex99]

I think the OP should think less about what he (and other farangs) contribute and more about what he (and they) don't

totster

I don't agree there.

These are things I think about from time to time and seeing as it is relative to Thailand, then I can't see why the door should be closed on wanting to post a comment about it to hear what other people think about it.

Personally, I haven't furnished anyone my own views or feelings in relation to the questions I asked, just published and explained the economic details and handed over a scenario for discussion.

After all.... What else is a forum for?

[Totster]

I think the OP should think less about what he (and other farangs) contribute and more about what he (and they) don't

totster

I don't agree there.

These are things I think about from time to time and seeing as it is relative to Thailand, then I can't see why the door should be closed on wanting to post a comment about it to hear what other people think about it.

Personally, I haven't furnished anyone my own views or feelings in relation to the questions I asked, just published and explained the economic details and handed over a scenario for discussion.

After all.... What else is a forum for?

My point is that I have seen this so many times, whenever something happens that gets the forum farangs up in arms we get the "what would they do without our money" line.. which is essentially no different to your opening post.

I'm not saying the door should be closed, but offered an opinion.. surely this is also what a forum is for ?

totster

[Bagwan]

Please do not include me in you stats, as I do not feel like a 2nd class citizen in Thailand as I was considered in the states. I live a much better life than I could live on the same amount of money back in the old country and I would not even consider leaving,

Thailand tourism industry the bulk of which come from Asian countries with the usual Western tourist, while it would effect the Thai economy some, Expats exaggerate their value to the Thai economy, Tourist spend more money in Thailand then the expat population does, most expats budget their money on a month to month bases, as tourist spend freely for the time they are here,

I for one would like for those expats that dislike Thailand to leave, I am tired of the whining, 90 day extension, 90 day extension!

Cheers:

I don't like Manchester United. That doesn't equate with disliking the entire members of the Football Association. I doubt that there isn't something about Thailand or Thainess that you don't like or disagree with so stop appearing to be smug and totally self satisfied. There is nothing in the World that cannot be improved upon.

[kikoman]

I do not plan to become involve with a discussion of what you meant to ask, but I can only opine on what you did ask! "What would happen to Thailand's economy if all Falang's disappeared tomorrow", That the question I responded to,

#1. It would have a minimal effect if any at all.

#2 You assume all expats concur with your statement's, Not, I for one have no intention of leaving Thailand so (not all Falang's would disappear tomorrow)!

#3 By my disagreeing with your statement you state I insulted your intelligence.

I just feel you can not stand to be found wrong as your contention that all Farang would deeply effect Thailand's economy would leave you with out what you view as a bargaining chip, for full Thai rights.

Just my opinion!

Cheers:

[rct99q]

Most Thais would be happier, maybe a little worse off for a little while, but certainly happier. Secondly where in the world do you think all the 'farang" would go, if not Thailand? And thirdly what is your point?

Are you trying to say that Thailand is so in need, so desperate that it would utterly collapse and fade away if the almighty "farang' decided to leave., Posh.

Can I recommend you find a hobby or a charitable organization to donate your wealth and time to.

[kikoman]

Please do not include me in you stats, as I do not feel like a 2nd class citizen in Thailand as I was considered in the states. I live a much better life than I could live on the same amount of money back in the old country and I would not even consider leaving,

Thailand tourism industry the bulk of which come from Asian countries with the usual Western tourist, while it would effect the Thai economy some, Expats exaggerate their value to the Thai economy, Tourist spend more money in Thailand then the expat population does, most expats budget their money on a month to month bases, as tourist spend freely for the time they are here,

I for one would like for those expats that dislike Thailand to leave, I am tired of the whining, 90 day extension, 90 day extension!

Cheers:

I don't like Manchester United. That doesn't equate with disliking the entire members of the Football Association. I doubt that there isn't something about Thailand or Thainess that you don't like or disagree with so stop appearing to be smug and totally self satisfied. There is nothing in the World that cannot be improved upon.

There is something I do not like about Thailand, It the continued moaning and whiners of the Thai bashers, that so often pollute the forum.

I do not know you, why would it be any concern of yours how I appear,

The only complaint you-all have is the fact that I like Thai's and Thailand. Why would your right to dislike Thailand, have relevance over my right to love Thailand,

You should improve on your negativity, take off your blind folds and open your minds and heart, this is a great country, with great people!

I am the happy satisfied Thailand Falang!!

Cheers:

[phitsanulokjohn]

As i replied yesterday to a similar topic.Thailand would be up the Chao phraya without a paddle.

[phitsanulokjohn]

As i replied yesterday to a similar topic.Thailand would be up the Chao phraya without a paddle.

[Honkytowner]

"Visitor Exports"? What's that supposed to mean? Is it the same as deportation?

[Berkshire]

This thread reminds me of the Mexicans in America who asked "what would happen if all the illegals disappeared tomorrow?" (in that case, there would actually be an economic impact) But then the Mexicans, legal and illegal, were tired of being persecuted and under-appreciated. Do farangs in Thailand feel persecuted and under-appreciated? Poor baby. Better run home to mommy.

[h90]

This thread reminds me of the Mexicans in America who asked "what would happen if all the illegals disappeared tomorrow?" (in that case, there would actually be an economic impact) But then the Mexicans, legal and illegal, were tired of being persecuted and under-appreciated. Do farangs in Thailand feel persecuted and under-appreciated? Poor baby. Better run home to mommy.

Well in average the Farangs that come are more wealthy and better educated (note "in average").

While the Mexicans in USA or the Turkeys in Europe, are less educated and come to earn more money.

Complete different situation with different problems.

[asdecas]

Tony doesn't exist, he never did except in the fertile imagination of Inspector Terdsak of Swampland Yard Police Station. Having once had life breathed into him, Tony quickly became a reality for expats and tourists alike in Thailand during what became known as the Great Ripoff King Power scam. As quickly as he appeared however, the publicity that the said ripoff attracted worldwide led to his vanishing back into his lamp on Ins. Terdsak's desk, to wait patiently, much as the genie in the Arabian Nights, for the call to appear once again and provide service to Thailand Finest.

[kikoman]

Why would it be a completely different situation the U.S. has the 5th largest Spanish speaking population in the world, and Hispanic's are the largest minority group in the U. S. that mostly are treated as 2nd class citizens, not only immigrants, but U.S. citizen, as 2nd class citizens and are denied the basic rights that so many on this forum say any immigrant receives freely in the U.S..

Not a completely different situations..is a different problem as they are discriminated against, while expats are only discriminated against in their minds.

Cheers:

[Berkshire]

Why would it be a completely different situation the U.S. has the 5th largest Spanish speaking population in the world, and Hispanic's are the largest minority group in the U. S. that mostly are treated as 2nd class citizens, not only immigrants, but U.S. citizen, as 2nd class citizens and are denied the basic rights that so many on this forum say any immigrant receives freely in the U.S..

Not a completely different situations..is a different problem as they are discriminated against, while expats are only discriminated against in their minds.

Cheers:

Exactly. Many of those Mexicans (and nearly all the illegals) went to America for survival, seeking a better life for themselves and their families. They go to work in jobs that most Americans don't want, and are willing to do the most menial tasks for pittance. They live paycheck to paycheck. They are often exploited and if illegal, have no rights. Most are good, decent, hardworking folks. They have my admiration and my sympathies.

Contrast that to the farangs in Thailand. Well, there's really no comparison. I wonder who whines/whinge more?

[A1Str8]

Wow you have done some extensive research. Do you have too much time on your hands or just interested in economics overall?

Besides I think it would shake the economy of Thailand for sure.