Thai bourse may rocket to 1700 points next year

[webfact]

Thai bourse may rocket to 1700 points next year
By English News



BANGKOK, Oct 16 – A new round of overseas capital inflows could push up the Thai stock market to 1,650-1700 points, or a price-earning ratio of 15, next year, a leading analyst said today.

Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, chairman of the Federation of the Capital Market Organisations, said at least Bt100 billion of foreign capital will possibly be invested in newly-emerging markets including the Thai bourse.

He said five major elements would contribute to the surge in the Thai stock market, including the US solution, though temporary, to the debt ceiling problem, attractive returns from stock investments despite higher interest rates, strengthened global economies--especially in Europe, the US and China which boost Thailand’s exports and drive the country’s economy next year, continued interest among foreign investors towards newly-emerged markets including Thailand which should see capital return, and five consecutive years of business growth among listed Thai companies which are expected to grow 14-15 per cent.

He said Thailand’s planned Bt2 trillion investment for infrastructure development has become a strength and it is believed that the government would be successful in acquiring capital for the mega projects.

Mr Paiboon said the Thai stock market has, however, remained volatile in light of the US financial meltdown and its economic stimulus through quantitative easing measures.

Internal political situation has compelled foreign analysts to weigh down investment in Thailand while it has yet to be seen if the government would be successful in stimulating consumption, he pointed out.

If the government is successful in fulfilling the projection, the Thai stock market will be extremely active with the export sector gaining an advantage, he said, urging long-term investors to start buying stocks while short-term investors should wait until the index weakens.

Asked if the huge loss from the state’s rice pledging scheme would jeopardise the government’s stability, Mr Paiboon said the government should disclose information on the rice subsidy programme following the private sector’s estimate that it is losing Bt425 billion.

The government should manage the rice scheme in the new harvest more carefully and build up trust among the public regarding the advantages of the project, he said. (MCOT online news)


-- TNA 2013-10-16

[fletchsmile]

Thai stock market at 1700 next year - not unreasonable and I'll drink to that. Then again if it's wrong I'll have a drink to something else

[Pib]

"Rocket to 1700"...giggle, giggle, such a headline. SET was at 1643 on 20 May 13...been mostly trending down since....ended down again today at 1464. Hopefully it will turn around and head north next year. Watch out for the rocket blast if and when it does...giggle, giggle.

[Dr Robert]

I wouldn't be putting my money on it just now and even if it does rocket to beyond 1700 the boosters ain't made to last and gravity will suck your money back to earth before you can say Buzz Aldrin. it's Science fiction to think you can make money on the bourse here.

[Soutpeel]

Thai bourse may rocket to 1700 points next year.....and may be it wont...

[brit1984]

according to the SET's website the market PE is currently 16x... http://marketdata.set.or.th/mkt/marketsummary.do?language=en&country=US

if by this analysts calcs a rise in the index to 1700 would imply only a 15x market PE, that implies a market PE today of ~13.5x (with 5% earnings growth)

what do others see as the current market PE? any views?... 13.5x would be quite interesting (bordering on the sexy)...

[brit1984]

also does anyone have a view on market EBITDA multiple? (or at least average corporate leverage and average debt costs to back into it from the PE)

(obviously excluding the banks from these calcs)

[yoshiwara]

I wouldn't be putting my money on it just now and even if it does rocket to beyond 1700 the boosters ain't made to last and gravity will suck your money back to earth before you can say Buzz Aldrin. it's Science fiction to think you can make money on the bourse here.

Plenty of people have made money on the SET over the years.

[jbrain]

Next year the sun will shine, with many days of rain and tropical storms .

I should look for a job as financial adviser.

[jbrain]

I wouldn't be putting my money on it just now and even if it does rocket to beyond 1700 the boosters ain't made to last and gravity will suck your money back to earth before you can say Buzz Aldrin. it's Science fiction to think you can make money on the bourse here.

Plenty of people have made money on the SET over the years.

Do you have any figures as to HOW many ?

Could it be that also plenty have lost money during the same period ?

[fletchsmile]

I wouldn't be putting my money on it just now and even if it does rocket to beyond 1700 the boosters ain't made to last and gravity will suck your money back to earth before you can say Buzz Aldrin. it's Science fiction to think you can make money on the bourse here.

Plenty of people have made money on the SET over the years.

Do you have any figures as to HOW many ?

Could it be that also plenty have lost money during the same period ?

7 out of 10 people who picked a month-end at random and invested in the SET for a 5 year period between 1975 and today would have got back more than they invested.

That's excluding dividends, but then not taking account of inflation.

Thailand is a very different place in the 21st century though. If you do a similar exercise between 2000 and today, i.e picking any 5 year period starting on a month-end in the 21st century, then almost 9 times out of 10 you would have made money.

If you pick longer periods of 10 years from month-end to month end, then 45 times out of 45 you would have made money. That's to say if you'd picked any month end from Jan 2000 onwards at random, and invested in the SET for 10 years you would have made money. Dividend income on top of that would probably have covered inflation too. Plus if you had converted from a western currency such as USD/GBP you'd have some nice currency appreciation too!

Given most of my investments are post Asian Crisis and long term. Those odds have been great thank you

Cheers Fletch:)

Edited October 16, 2013 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

according to the SET's website the market PE is currently 16x... http://marketdata.set.or.th/mkt/marketsummary.do?language=en&country=US

if by this analysts calcs a rise in the index to 1700 would imply only a 15x market PE, that implies a market PE today of ~13.5x (with 5% earnings growth)

what do others see as the current market PE? any views?... 13.5x would be quite interesting (bordering on the sexy)...

I'm usually comfortable with a historic/trailing P/E of under 15 for Thailand. For me the current P/E of 16 seems reasonable though: not cheap but not too expensive - some downside risk, but given growth and earnings expected to pick up next year, and a long term story still intact for Thailand for a few years yet, I'm not worried.

I'd put serious money on a nice inflation beating return in the next 5-10 years by investing in SET, and sharing in Thailand's growth.

Cheers Fletch:)

[jbrain]

I wouldn't be putting my money on it just now and even if it does rocket to beyond 1700 the boosters ain't made to last and gravity will suck your money back to earth before you can say Buzz Aldrin. it's Science fiction to think you can make money on the bourse here.

Plenty of people have made money on the SET over the years.

Do you have any figures as to HOW many ?

Could it be that also plenty have lost money during the same period ?

7 out of 10 people who picked a month-end at random and invested in the SET for a 5 year period between 1975 and today would have got back more than they invested.

That's excluding dividends, but then not taking account of inflation.

Thailand is a very different place in the 21st century though. If you do a similar exercise between 2000 and today, i.e picking any 5 year period starting on a month-end in the 21st century, then almost 9 times out of 10 you would have made money.

If you pick longer periods of 10 years from month-end to month end, then 45 times out of 45 you would have made money. That's to say if you'd picked any month end from Jan 2000 onwards at random, and invested in the SET for 10 years you would have made money. Dividend income on top of that would probably have covered inflation too. Plus if you had converted from a western currency such as USD/GBP you'd have some nice currency appreciation too!

Given most of my investments are post Asian Crisis and long term. Those odds have been great thank you

Cheers Fletch:)

So how many people out of 10 got their money back which they invested at any given month end between 1994 and 1997 and held it for any period ranging from 1 year to 12 years ?

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=TH%3ASET&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=20

Edited October 16, 2013 by jbrain

[jbrain]

according to the SET's website the market PE is currently 16x... http://marketdata.set.or.th/mkt/marketsummary.do?language=en&country=US

if by this analysts calcs a rise in the index to 1700 would imply only a 15x market PE, that implies a market PE today of ~13.5x (with 5% earnings growth)

what do others see as the current market PE? any views?... 13.5x would be quite interesting (bordering on the sexy)...

I'm usually comfortable with a historic/trailing P/E of under 15 for Thailand. For me the current P/E of 16 seems reasonable though: not cheap but not too expensive - some downside risk, but given growth and earnings expected to pick up next year, and a long term story still intact for Thailand for a few years yet, I'm not worried.

I'd put serious money on a nice inflation beating return in the next 5-10 years by investing in SET, and sharing in Thailand's growth.

Cheers Fletch:)

Can you remind us what Thailand's REAL growth figure was this year ?

[brit1984]

according to the SET's website the market PE is currently 16x... http://marketdata.set.or.th/mkt/marketsummary.do?language=en&country=US

if by this analysts calcs a rise in the index to 1700 would imply only a 15x market PE, that implies a market PE today of ~13.5x (with 5% earnings growth)

what do others see as the current market PE? any views?... 13.5x would be quite interesting (bordering on the sexy)...

I'm usually comfortable with a historic/trailing P/E of under 15 for Thailand. For me the current P/E of 16 seems reasonable though: not cheap but not too expensive - some downside risk, but given growth and earnings expected to pick up next year, and a long term story still intact for Thailand for a few years yet, I'm not worried.

I'd put serious money on a nice inflation beating return in the next 5-10 years by investing in SET, and sharing in Thailand's growth.

Cheers Fletch:)

i agree 15x-16x seems about fair for this stage in the cycle and market outlook - not sure what this "analyst" is talking about - implying today's PE ~13.5x...

maybe he's using FY3 earnings or adjusted earnings figures (or maybe he just downloaded some garbage data from bloomberg)

i'm only 28 with more energy/ideas than assets so "inflation beating" doesn't meet my optimal risk/return position (but dont disagree with anything you say)

[brit1984]

according to the SET's website the market PE is currently 16x... http://marketdata.set.or.th/mkt/marketsummary.do?language=en&country=US

if by this analysts calcs a rise in the index to 1700 would imply only a 15x market PE, that implies a market PE today of ~13.5x (with 5% earnings growth)

what do others see as the current market PE? any views?... 13.5x would be quite interesting (bordering on the sexy)...

I'm usually comfortable with a historic/trailing P/E of under 15 for Thailand. For me the current P/E of 16 seems reasonable though: not cheap but not too expensive - some downside risk, but given growth and earnings expected to pick up next year, and a long term story still intact for Thailand for a few years yet, I'm not worried.

I'd put serious money on a nice inflation beating return in the next 5-10 years by investing in SET, and sharing in Thailand's growth.

Cheers Fletch:)

Can you remind us what Thailand's REAL growth figure was this year ?

maybe Fletch will have a better answer for you but if your talking about GDP growth rates, i think most recent research suggests there is little (if anything an inverse) correlation between recent historical GDP growth and future stock market performance at least in short-medium term

[jbrain]

according to the SET's website the market PE is currently 16x... http://marketdata.set.or.th/mkt/marketsummary.do?language=en&country=US

if by this analysts calcs a rise in the index to 1700 would imply only a 15x market PE, that implies a market PE today of ~13.5x (with 5% earnings growth)

what do others see as the current market PE? any views?... 13.5x would be quite interesting (bordering on the sexy)...

I'm usually comfortable with a historic/trailing P/E of under 15 for Thailand. For me the current P/E of 16 seems reasonable though: not cheap but not too expensive - some downside risk, but given growth and earnings expected to pick up next year, and a long term story still intact for Thailand for a few years yet, I'm not worried.

I'd put serious money on a nice inflation beating return in the next 5-10 years by investing in SET, and sharing in Thailand's growth.

Cheers Fletch:)

Can you remind us what Thailand's REAL growth figure was this year ?

maybe Fletch will have a better answer for you but if your talking about GDP growth rates, i think most recent research suggests there is little (if anything an inverse) correlation between recent historical GDP growth and future stock market performance at least in short-medium term

You're right, Historical growth isn't related to future stock market performance, but future growth should be, don't you think ?

[brit1984]

^ future EXPECTED growth rates is a factor that should affect today's stock market PRICE but not necessarily future stock market PERFORMANCE

whether or not future actual growth rates are better/worse than EXPECTED growth rates is however a factor that should affect stock market performance

ps: i'm not a public equities guy and only came into this thread because the story in the OP seemed to suggest the market is trading at a slightly sexy PE, which Fletch has already confirmed is probably more at the neither beautiful nor ugly level, so not really wanting to get into a debate on stock price theory (you probably know much more than me anyway as i've seen you posting in many public equities threads)

Edited October 16, 2013 by brit1984

[jbrain]

^ future EXPECTED growth rates is a factor that should affect today's stock market PRICE but not necessarily future stock market PERFORMANCE

whether or not future actual growth rates are better/worse than EXPECTED growth rates is however a factor that should affect stock market performance

That was my point. Current growth figures are FAR worse than expected and so do i see the future if this government stays in place.

Yet the market didn't react accordingly. Manupilation anyone?

[brit1984]

^ future EXPECTED growth rates is a factor that should affect today's stock market PRICE but not necessarily future stock market PERFORMANCE

whether or not future actual growth rates are better/worse than EXPECTED growth rates is however a factor that should affect stock market performance

That was my point. Current growth figures are FAR worse than expected and so do i see the future if this government stays in place.

Yet the market didn't react accordingly. Manupilation anyone?

its only of many factors mate but i get your point (i think) - markets are not rational

ps: as mentioned in edit to my previous post- i'm sure you know all this 5hit so no need for me to tell you (or any of the other geniuses who frequent this forum)

[jbrain]

^ future EXPECTED growth rates is a factor that should affect today's stock market PRICE but not necessarily future stock market PERFORMANCE

whether or not future actual growth rates are better/worse than EXPECTED growth rates is however a factor that should affect stock market performance

That was my point. Current growth figures are FAR worse than expected and so do i see the future if this government stays in place.

Yet the market didn't react accordingly. Manupilation anyone?

its only of many factors mate but i get your point (i think) - markets are not rational

ps: as mentioned in edit to my previous post- i'm sure you know all this 5hit so no need for me to tell you (or any of the other geniuses who frequent this forum)

I don't know anything more than you do, I have only my view on the current situation, which seems to diifer with some other posters

[brit1984]

^ future EXPECTED growth rates is a factor that should affect today's stock market PRICE but not necessarily future stock market PERFORMANCE

whether or not future actual growth rates are better/worse than EXPECTED growth rates is however a factor that should affect stock market performance

That was my point. Current growth figures are FAR worse than expected and so do i see the future if this government stays in place.

Yet the market didn't react accordingly. Manupilation anyone?

its only of many factors mate but i get your point (i think) - markets are not rational

ps: as mentioned in edit to my previous post- i'm sure you know all this 5hit so no need for me to tell you (or any of the other geniuses who frequent this forum)

I don't know anything more than you do, I have only my view on the current situation, which seems to diifer with some other posters

only time will tell who has the best precognition

[Cuban]

Thai bourse may rocket to 1700 points next year.....and may be it wont...

So all I can add is that the use of the word "bourse" is odd in that it is only really used as a Synonym for European Financial Exchanges it being of Latin/French origin.

Maybe it's the same writer that can not spell Elephant and so always uses the word "Pachyderm"

[Estrada]

I wouldn't be putting my money on it just now and even if it does rocket to beyond 1700 the boosters ain't made to last and gravity will suck your money back to earth before you can say Buzz Aldrin. it's Science fiction to think you can make money on the bourse here.

Claptrap! I have made 460% in 4 years investing in the Thai SET. Last month I made B1.95Million. All indications are that next year Thai Stocks generally will increase substantially in value. Personally I only invest in stocks with a dividend of around 7% and which are currently trading at least 20 to 60% below value. Most of my money has been made in Telecom Shares such as, ADVANCE, AIT, DTAC, INTUCH, and infrastructure, particularly BTS. BTS will pay 7% dividend each year for at least the next 3 years and the value if you include their trackside condos and hotels, is currently B12.30 and today is trading at B8.80/share. As long as you invest wisely you can make money easily here.

Edited October 16, 2013 by Estrada

[asdecas]

I wouldn't be putting my money on it just now and even if it does rocket to beyond 1700 the boosters ain't made to last and gravity will suck your money back to earth before you can say Buzz Aldrin. it's Science fiction to think you can make money on the bourse here.

Plenty of people have made money on the SET over the years.

Indeed; the SET funded my very comfortable lifestyle in Thailand for more than ten years in the eighties and nineties.

[David48]

Are you guys with dividend paying Stocks/Shares paying the 10% non-resident Tax?

Any legal way around that?

BTW ... I'm also a big BTS fan.

[bangkokstick]

Bourse ? Who uses this word ????

[yoshiwara]

Bourse ? Who uses this word ????

France!

[David48]

COUGH ...

Are you guys with dividend paying Stocks/Shares paying the 10% non-resident Tax?

Any legal way around that?

BTW ... I'm also a big BTS fan.

[David48]

Bourse ? Who uses this word ????

France!

Must admit ... it's a term I'm fully aware of, so must be used in Australian Terminology.

Everyone's different.