The future of Phuket in 10 years

[Peterocket]

Patong will become a war-zone, with its depraved inhabitants and visitors continually drinking and fighting. The streets will run orange with vomit. Tuk tuks will assume total control of transport, arming themselves with heavy machine-guns and rocket launchers. They will destroy all privately owned vehicles on sight.

The seas will turn brown with sewage, and the beaches will be completely covered with broken glass, excrement and used condoms. There will be hundreds of murders a day, and the corpses will be thrown into the sea.

Woe betide anybody who visits Phuket in ten years!

Sounds like last weekend.

I was thinking something along the lines of bladerunner

[danphuket]

Phuket in 2022:

Will have 95%+ English speaking staff in most tourist areas since ASEAN 2015 will have a real impact here since Filipino's, Malaysian's, Cambodian's and Singaporean's and other English speakers will flood the Thai market pushing out the Thai's as well as major investment (business and land purchases) within the region.

2015 will be a pivital year, as other economies will thrive and the region will witness who are the real power brokers, and if Thailand thinks they're going to compete with all their divisions, then they're sadly mistaken.

Lets hope someone rises from the ashes and wakes up the country and soon because Thailand has not seen anything yet.

Tick, tock..

In reality AEC will not free up capital mobility between its member countries. Take a look at "Thailands schedule of movement of natural persons commitments" here: http://asean.fta.govt.nz/assets/Downloads/AANZFTA-Thailand-Movement-of-Natural-Persons-Schedule.pdf

Article by TDRI briefly summarizes it: http://www.norcham.com/news/why-the-aec-in-2015-will-lead-to-few-changes-in-thailand

Here is en excerpt:

“The biggest myth about the AEC is that there will be free flow of labour,” she said. “But to this point it is only highly skilled labour that can move, and it isn’t that freely. Warnings of a flood of unskilled labour to Singapore are unfounded.”

Article 140 of the Thai Constitution requires that any international agreement is passed by Parliament. So far only the slightest of concessions has been made, Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs) for seven professions: engineering, nursing, physician, dental, architecture, surveying and accounting. The agreements between the 10 Asean member countries mean licensed and recognised professionals in these fields can move to other Asean countries to practice, but they are still subject to pass that country’s licensing test.

In addition, you can’t be an independent practitioner. Any foreign professional intending to work in Thailand must collaborate with a local business, yet another reason why the AEC is unlikely to foster a “free flow” of labour.

[danphuket]

Phuket in 2022:

Will have 95%+ English speaking staff in most tourist areas since ASEAN 2015 will have a real impact here since Filipino's, Malaysian's, Cambodian's and Singaporean's and other English speakers will flood the Thai market pushing out the Thai's as well as major investment (business and land purchases) within the region.

2015 will be a pivital year, as other economies will thrive and the region will witness who are the real power brokers, and if Thailand thinks they're going to compete with all their divisions, then they're sadly mistaken.

Lets hope someone rises from the ashes and wakes up the country and soon because Thailand has not seen anything yet.

Tick, tock..

In reality AEC will not free up capital mobility between its member countries. Take a look at "Thailands schedule of movement of natural persons commitments" here: http://asean.fta.govt.nz/assets/Downloads/AANZFTA-Thailand-Movement-of-Natural-Persons-Schedule.pdf

Article by TDRI briefly summarizes it: http://www.norcham.com/news/why-the-aec-in-2015-will-lead-to-few-changes-in-thailand

Here is en excerpt:

“The biggest myth about the AEC is that there will be free flow of labour,” she said. “But to this point it is only highly skilled labour that can move, and it isn’t that freely. Warnings of a flood of unskilled labour to Singapore are unfounded.”

Article 140 of the Thai Constitution requires that any international agreement is passed by Parliament. So far only the slightest of concessions has been made, Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs) for seven professions: engineering, nursing, physician, dental, architecture, surveying and accounting. The agreements between the 10 Asean member countries mean licensed and recognised professionals in these fields can move to other Asean countries to practice, but they are still subject to pass that country’s licensing test.

In addition, you can’t be an independent practitioner. Any foreign professional intending to work in Thailand must collaborate with a local business, yet another reason why the AEC is unlikely to foster a “free flow” of labour.

Sorry, I meant labor mobility...

[ozyjon]

Don't care, not ever going there again, pity because it has so much going for it, take out the BS and it would be a nice place, probably was once.

[Felt 35]

Phuket in 2022:

Will have 95%+ English speaking staff in most tourist areas since ASEAN 2015 will have a real impact here since Filipino's, Malaysian's, Cambodian's and Singaporean's and other English speakers will flood the Thai market pushing out the Thai's as well as major investment (business and land purchases) within the region.

2015 will be a pivital year, as other economies will thrive and the region will witness who are the real power brokers, and if Thailand thinks they're going to compete with all their divisions, then they're sadly mistaken.

Lets hope someone rises from the ashes and wakes up the country and soon because Thailand has not seen anything yet.

Tick, tock..

Thailand will never be 100% compliant with ASEAN and as so will never be attractive for the people they need from ASEAN.

[Friendly Stranger]

Regarding responses to ASEAN 2015: Yeah, that is making more sense, as I had to stop to re-think how would the richer countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand & Indonesia) benefit from this.

Too bad though, as this would have made Thailand revamp their outlook on their tourism strategy if stiff competition was around the corner.

As a side note:

I was blown away when I saw, read and spoke to ppl on how Phnom Penh is positioning themselves as a serious tourist alternative. They truly have things going for them with the right ppl in place and the infrastructure. I hope they learn from Thailand's mistakes.

[crusader79]

Regarding responses to ASEAN 2015: Yeah, that is making more sense, as I had to stop to re-think how would the richer countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand & Indonesia) benefit from this.

Too bad though, as this would have made Thailand revamp their outlook on their tourism strategy if stiff competition was around the corner.

As a side note:

I was blown away when I saw, read and spoke to ppl on how Phnom Penh is positioning themselves as a serious tourist alternative. They truly have things going for them with the right ppl in place and the infrastructure. I hope they learn from Thailand's mistakes.

I was shocked to see that the Angkok Wat Half Marathon and associated races had more than 6,000 participants.

[NamKangMan]

Regarding responses to ASEAN 2015: Yeah, that is making more sense, as I had to stop to re-think how would the richer countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand & Indonesia) benefit from this.

Too bad though, as this would have made Thailand revamp their outlook on their tourism strategy if stiff competition was around the corner.

As a side note:

I was blown away when I saw, read and spoke to ppl on how Phnom Penh is positioning themselves as a serious tourist alternative. They truly have things going for them with the right ppl in place and the infrastructure. I hope they learn from Thailand's mistakes.

I was shocked to see that the Angkok Wat Half Marathon and associated races had more than 6,000 participants.

Sihanoukville - Cambodia will definately be competing in the near future as a South East Asian "beach" tourist destination, and, if Thailand doesn't change it's gambling policy, it will pick up a lot of Thai "weekend" gamblers who would rather fly to Cambodia than bus to the boarder casinos.

There are three casinos there, that I know of, and an airport that is rumored to be accepting international flights in the near future, as well as "adult nightlife" and all at a very affordabe price.

Not to mention, a foreigner can serve a beer in his own bar there, which may attract those looking to buy a bar.

Edited December 4, 2013 by NamKangMan

[Somtamnication]

In 10 years, Chalong will be renamed Chalongski, the other areas will be BangTaoiski and the ever present Taipain Disco will be renamed St. Petersburg Discotecski.

Will get my coat.....

[Felt 35]

In 10 years, Chalong will be renamed Chalongski, the other areas will be BangTaoiski and the ever present Taipain Disco will be renamed St. Petersburg Discotecski.

Will get my coat.....

Better that than Chalongqing, Bangtaoing and Tianpain disco

[cbmgolfer]

Phuket is going in the same direction as Pattaya.

Not quite, as you cannot easily get to Phuket from Bangkok for weekends. Lots of Bangkok Thais in Pattaya on weekends and holidays.

[IrishIvan]

Phuket in 2022:

Will have 95%+ English speaking staff in most tourist areas since ASEAN 2015 will have a real impact here since Filipino's, Malaysian's, Cambodian's and Singaporean's and other English speakers will flood the Thai market pushing out the Thai's as well as major investment (business and land purchases) within the region.

2015 will be a pivital year, as other economies will thrive and the region will witness who are the real power brokers, and if Thailand thinks they're going to compete with all their divisions, then they're sadly mistaken.

Lets hope someone rises from the ashes and wakes up the country and soon because Thailand has not seen anything yet.

Tick, tock..

In reality AEC will not free up capital mobility between its member countries. Take a look at "Thailands schedule of movement of natural persons commitments" here: http://asean.fta.govt.nz/assets/Downloads/AANZFTA-Thailand-Movement-of-Natural-Persons-Schedule.pdf

Article by TDRI briefly summarizes it: http://www.norcham.com/news/why-the-aec-in-2015-will-lead-to-few-changes-in-thailand

Here is en excerpt:

“The biggest myth about the AEC is that there will be free flow of labour,” she said. “But to this point it is only highly skilled labour that can move, and it isn’t that freely. Warnings of a flood of unskilled labour to Singapore are unfounded.”

Article 140 of the Thai Constitution requires that any international agreement is passed by Parliament. So far only the slightest of concessions has been made, Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs) for seven professions: engineering, nursing, physician, dental, architecture, surveying and accounting. The agreements between the 10 Asean member countries mean licensed and recognised professionals in these fields can move to other Asean countries to practice, but they are still subject to pass that country’s licensing test.

In addition, you can’t be an independent practitioner. Any foreign professional intending to work in Thailand must collaborate with a local business, yet another reason why the AEC is unlikely to foster a “free flow” of labour.

Sorry, I meant labor mobility...

The truth of the Asean 2015 agreement is that Singapore will be like Germany, the Philippines like Greece and Spain, and Thailand will do a backflip and tell the others where to go when they relise it doesnt benefit them

[grumpyoldman]

Reminds me I need a new "same same but different" singlet.

[NamKangMan]

Are we foreigners qualified to comment on Thai politics with any degree of experience ?

Quite honestly all sides are corrupt here in Thailand. I could say the same for most countries, might not be so obvious, but political corruption is universal.

There are some who are. A bit lengthy story, but gives a broader and deeper view to the Thai politics and culture, compared to many others. Worth of reading, with filters as always when talking about politics. http://www.prachatai.com/english/node/2694

When I came to Phuket for the first time, I was in my early thirties. Phuket was a playground to explore and wonder. Great place indeed. Fun and exciting.

NKM said earlier that Phuket changed faster than he has done. I think that's partly true. There has been many uncontrolled changes to the island. The people who come here now will see what Phuket is now, exiting and fun for them. They don't see it as the way it used to be - exciting and fun.. with different tune.

I think I, and possibly others who have been here for a while, have become old for the changes or uncertainty. We'll find places which offer more suitable surroundings to the oldtimers. The places which were great when we were young.

Phuket itself is and will be the same as she has always been. Vibrant and always changing island with parties for youngsters to join in.

Now, where is the next dream location ?

Good post oilinki.

"The people who come here now will see what Phuket is now, exiting and fun for them. They don't see it as the way it used to be - exciting and fun.. with different tune." - you are correct, Phuket is still a great place, but the uncontrolled corruption and greed certain is playing a different "tune" on Phuket to what it has in the past, and many are not liking the new music.

Corruption and greed gets bigger, not smaller, over time. So, in my opinion, it's going to have to take a big "incident" or direct intervention from Bangkok, to change the direction Phuket is heading in.

[NamKangMan]

Phuket is going in the same direction as Pattaya.

Not quite, as you cannot easily get to Phuket from Bangkok for weekends. Lots of Bangkok Thais in Pattaya on weekends and holidays.

Pattaya became a city by the sea. At the current rate of construction, Phuket will become an island city.

As Phuket expands, at it's current rapid rate, so too will the social issues rapidly increase, as they did in Pattaya.

[surangw]

one big cesspool with organized crime operating out in the open,

its already close to the bar scene in Total Recall

[LivinginKata]

2 off topic posts removed

[EBlair48]

The island's future? The future does not exist to the Thai mind. Therefore there is no future.

To the rest of us;

Rampant growth, the building up of wetlands and the non stop concreting of mountain sides will have the entire island covered with nary a green spot except for the Phuket gateway north of the airport which will have dense weed coverage. Foreigners will stop coming, the property bubble will burst messily and Thais will enjoy all those luxury houses built 10 meters from each other and 25 sq meter condos for 1/ 10 of the prices .

Desalinisation of sea water and the extinction of predators will mean a jelly fish explosion so the main attraction to even Thai visitors, the beaches, will simply evaporate as the death from box stings surpasses the drownings which will have amplified dramatically from increased sea levels and storm activity.

Sewage will get worse and worse, the dumps will finally bore through the island to the sea and a new anti-biotic resistant bacterial pathogen will emerge borne known as the Bangla Rot , which will spread worldwide due the the A-380 and Dreamliner aircraft, and cause male genitalia to fall off painfully and the female's to fill with smelly green pus.

My property is up for sale, with a little luck it'll get sold in 5 or so years

Phuket in 2022:

Will have 95%+ English speaking staff in most tourist areas since ASEAN 2015 will have a real impact here since Filipino's, Malaysian's, Cambodian's and Singaporean's and other English speakers will flood the Thai market pushing out the Thai's as well as major investment (business and land purchases) within the region.

2015 will be a pivital year, as other economies will thrive and the region will witness who are the real power brokers, and if Thailand thinks they're going to compete with all their divisions, then they're sadly mistaken.

Lets hope someone rises from the ashes and wakes up the country and soon because Thailand has not seen anything yet.

Tick, tock..

The cross border workers are for professional industries only , though I do see Thais sinking to the bottom of ASEAN quite rapidly as the general lack of English skills will be a great detriment, as it is already. It's almost is if the government has some great secret to cover up and cannot have people surfing English language sites.

[noikrit]

Patong will become a war-zone, with its depraved inhabitants and visitors continually drinking and fighting. The streets will run orange with vomit. Tuk tuks will assume total control of transport, arming themselves with heavy machine-guns and rocket launchers. They will destroy all privately owned vehicles on sight.

The seas will turn brown with sewage, and the beaches will be completely covered with broken glass, excrement and used condoms. There will be hundreds of murders a day, and the corpses will be thrown into the sea.

Woe betide anybody who visits Phuket in ten years!

Escape from Patong !! ..... Starring Kurt Russel Aka Snake will have to infiltrate and ??? What didi he do again????

Edited December 7, 2013 by noikrit

[KarenBravo]

My property is up for sale,

Yeah.......right.

Not exactly a non-biased poster, are you?

[Peterocket]

Patong will become a war-zone, with its depraved inhabitants and visitors continually drinking and fighting. The streets will run orange with vomit. Tuk tuks will assume total control of transport, arming themselves with heavy machine-guns and rocket launchers. They will destroy all privately owned vehicles on sight.

The seas will turn brown with sewage, and the beaches will be completely covered with broken glass, excrement and used condoms. There will be hundreds of murders a day, and the corpses will be thrown into the sea.

Woe betide anybody who visits Phuket in ten years!

Escape from Patong !! ..... Starring Kurt Russel Aka Snake will have to infiltrate and ??? What didi he do again????

I don't think any jokes or references to movies are allowed on this topic as the others have been removed

[EBlair48]

My property is up for sale,

Yeah.......right.

Not exactly a non-biased poster, are you?

Not sure what your point is. Please point out where it is that posters are expected to be non- biased, especially on this forum, but it seems you'd have a, well whatever it is you have against my post, if I were singing the praises of Phuket in order to sell the property to some unsuspecting newbie foreigner- which I am decidedly am not.

" I'll be lucky to offload the property in 5 years," was a bit sarcastic. However, talked to a guy a few days ago, 2 years on the market for his 4 bedroom villa, dropped the price finally by 40 % taking a loss to get it sold.

I know a US woman in Kamala, 4 years on the market and a British couple in Nai Harn went 5 years, though they really were shooting for moon on the price. After they dropped it though, took another 2 years

I don't see villas holding value, and I don't see any kind of restrictions on building, so my property bubble statement has merit - as much as it was meant in jest.

[xylophone]

My property is up for sale,

Yeah.......right.

Not exactly a non-biased poster, are you?

Not sure what your point is. Please point out where it is that posters are expected to be non- biased, especially on this forum, but it seems you'd have a, well whatever it is you have against my post, if I were singing the praises of Phuket in order to sell the property to some unsuspecting newbie foreigner- which I am decidedly am not.

" I'll be lucky to offload the property in 5 years," was a bit sarcastic. However, talked to a guy a few days ago, 2 years on the market for his 4 bedroom villa, dropped the price finally by 40 % taking a loss to get it sold.

I know a US woman in Kamala, 4 years on the market and a British couple in Nai Harn went 5 years, though they really were shooting for moon on the price. After they dropped it though, took another 2 years

I don't see villas holding value, and I don't see any kind of restrictions on building, so my property bubble statement has merit - as much as it was meant in jest.

Was lucky enough to sell my house in Patong some three years ago (I say lucky, but I did one hell of a lot of my own marketing and that proved successful) for 5.25 million baht and it is now back on the market and has been for about a year. I could certainly buy it back for 4 million baht if I wanted to, possibly 3.75 million baht because the owner desperately wants to sell.

Three exact same houses have been on the market for five years, and the prices have been dropped by the sellers, but no offers.

At the top of the Soi, between 400 and 500 new apartments are being constructed and although many have been "sold" off the plan, it would seem the majority of them have been bought by Thais wanting to make a profit by selling them just before completion............ all well and good if the "bigger fool" theory works, but when it falls over, and it will, there will be a lot of unhappy Thais who have lost their deposits, and a lot of empty apartments.

Patong is being overbuilt now which will almost certainly result in some form of correction (a bubble bursting for example) so quite what effect that will have on the future of Phuket in 10 years I'm not sure.

One thing is for sure however, and that is that I will not be buying any property whatsoever in Patong/Phuket.

[Jasun]

The development will continue of course, central Phuket in particular. Bigger, (hopefully) classier, but more crowded. Fortunately, the geography of Phuket puts it at much less a risk of over development compared to Bangkok or elsewhere. Personally, I prefer the Phuket of today than of 20 years ago. I expect it till be even better 20 years from now.

[LivinginKata]

<snip>

Personally, I prefer the Phuket of today than of 20 years ago. I expect it till be even better 20 years from now.

That made me think of Phuket 17 years ago - the downside

1) dial up internet

2) no cable TV

3) limited western food shopping

4) limited electrical goods

5) electric supply brown-outs on a regular basis (mind you I still have that now)

6) basic furniture for sale in small outlets

the upside

1) roads much quieter

2) the sea & beaches were less poluted

3) much less buildings

Please add to my list

[IrishIvan]

<snip>

Personally, I prefer the Phuket of today than of 20 years ago. I expect it till be even better 20 years from now.

That made me think of Phuket 17 years ago - the downside

1) dial up internet

2) no cable TV

3) limited western food shopping

4) limited electrical goods

5) electric supply brown-outs on a regular basis (mind you I still have that now)

6) basic furniture for sale in small outlets

the upside

1) roads much quieter

2) the sea & beaches were less poluted

3) much less buildings

Please add to my list

No Thaivisa 17 years ago

[LivinginKata]

No Thaivisa 17 years ago

But we did have phuket.com forum which was quite active back in those early forum days.

[Sharp]

Yep

Thriving !!

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

[mumjokmok]

Phuket 2023. Things get silly....

The east coast experiences bumper season as the new offshore wave machine is turned on and the 'forgotten' side of the island is transformed into a 58km long stretch of identical beach clubs. Consistent six foot swell brings the new generation of fluoro-clad crossdressing vampire teens and identically dressed young Asian couples to tour Phuket from around the world.

The incompleted tunnel running under the bypass is packed with tens of thousands of hastily-built corrugated iron huts. The entrances to the underground complex can be spotted by the mass of garments being hung to dry and can be easily found by following the paths of reddish brown stains on the ground.

Supercheap opens its first underground 24 hour minimart.

Bangla Rd opens its 140 storey high "Lovescraper" to rave reviews. Heinrich Offaltrap Flappenbauer becomes the first westerner to leap to his death citing fidelity problems within his relationship as the reason for his suicide. Thaivisa forum offers condolences and members rigorously debate the issue.

Two Chefs enjoys consistent success and finally changes it's name to Seventeen Chefs.

The beloved performers of the Aphrodimon United ladyboy cabaret return home after a year and a half long tour of China where they performed sold out shows across the country and received rave reviews from the mostly drunk audiences.

The businessmen and women of Surin beach are still grappling around on the floor with each other like a dozen octopus' fighting over a black snooker ball in an inflatable swimming pool full of lubricant. Some people still make it there because it's still beautiful in its own way. Swimmers however must still wedge their towel and belongings between one of the dry rocks at the outer edges of the beach to swim if they decide not to rent a deckchair.

The practice of opening an unsuccessful business in a great location, failing, then closing down, putting up a For Rent sign in big red English writing and asking for 1.5 million baht in pointless "key money" no longer exists. It's now upwards of 5-6 million in compensatory charges against any new tenant. The practice of massage shops being the first one into any newly opened row of shophouses and making it awkward for the next tenant still runs strong.

Cape Prom Thep still looks lovely at sunset as even being the year 2023 it is still impossible to suspend luxury resorts and beach clubs in the air. 2035 promises to be the year when Phuket opens its first Hovermotel.

The person who does the Russian translation menus is now a multi-trillionaire.

Common sense prevails and the local people take some of their horded dosh and travel a bit and go and look at some of the other south east Asian holiday islands. Look at the way it's organized, no need for six of the same shop in a row. There are more things to life than massage. Go and copy yourself a bit of up to date western material, a flash sign and paying just a little scrape on the knee worth of money to get a good clear, proof-read translation of whatever you are selling. Enjoy what you do if you can.

I love Phuket but as for foresight I am a bit worried. Hope everyone can see I'm not totally serious in my suggestions... just trying to bring the smiles back.

[danphuket]

I think that authorities will not come up with a firm strategy and as a result the island will be driven by supply and demand forces. Which means chaotic construction across the island. Sabaj and Mai Pen Rai will prevail. In addition, following up with events here for the last year, I come to a conclusion that officials are not effective leaders. Thais tend to have strong communities everywhere preventing smooth flow of progress. Patong Tunnel, Administration Building, Tesco Lotus construction canceled, protests against Russian community, Convention center canceled. All progressive policies are slowed down here and will be, as locals are too strong. All the changes that happen in the end are those that are in a critical state and can't be overlooked anymore

That means in essence nothing will change. It will be more crowded, there will be more houses and shopping centers, but it will never be nicely ordered as Singapore for example. In short Phuket will grow 'quantitatively', but not 'qualitatively'