So far - winners and losers in Thai unrest

[webfact]

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
So far - winners and losers in Thai unrest
Kavi Chongkittavorn



BANGKOK: -- The biggest winner of the month-long civil disobedience movement is the awakening of young Thais, who are twentyish equipped with smart phones and dozens of apps. They are no longer shy away from the so-called irritant social elements they used to churn off. In other word, they are no longer detach from the everyday reality.

Over the past weeks, they have done all these amazing things: demonstrating and peace marching on streets amid blazing sun, blowing whistles for hours including occupying government buildings. Of course, they tweeted and retweeted and Instagram their photos on Facebook.

When they were asked to help to prevent the security forces from apprehending a group of their leaders at Ministry of Finance, immediately they tweeted and called their family, relatives or friends to drive cars in several hundreds at the wee hours to block toll-ways and their entries including streets and sois leading to the ministry. It was an incredible political achievement.

After the student movement reached its peak during 1973-76, which overthrew the Thanom-Praphat dictatorship and paved the way for more democratic Thailand, a long standing yarning could be heard for more active political engagements from students. Now we have it. Nobody expected in the beginning that various student organizations and informal networks would show up so forcefully, not to mention, several hundreds of high school students.

Although these youngsters still lack the sophistication of their predecessors - namely Theerayuth Boonme, Seksan Prasetkul, in terms of political discourse and orientation, they however share a common perception that unless they take part, they would become puppets themselves and eventually could suffer from the ongoing political impasse. For instance, thousands of students from vocational institutions, who are notoriously known as troublemakers, have suddenly morphed into respectable crusaders for justice and democracy.

The second winner is the civil society organizations, which have played active role in sharpening and sustaining the movement. There are well over 80,000 civil groups of various shades and colors with proper registrations or without.

Previously, they seldom got together due to their different objectives and ulterior motives so are their organizational structure and funding. But the issues related to the amnesty bill, corruption charges and planned mega-spending schemes have united them in a nick of them. It is interesting to see how these informal and loosely-formed networks of civil groups would able to strengthen and become weighty political entity.

The third winner is the individuals who disconnect electricity and water, unlock doors at ministries and blow the whistles. In other culture the whistle blowers have different meaning - they are people telling secrets nobody knows. In the Thai case, they all know about Thaksin's secret. That is why they show up and blow the whistles to purge him away. The unlikely hero is, Suthep Thaugsuban, former Democrat Party hotshot, who has reinvented himself into a popular mass leader, something he could not accomplish in his party. His rise as a leader with a staying-on power tells a lot about his background from a village chief.

On the contrary, the biggest loser is undeniably Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Her charm and non-committal comments which used to be her strength and weapons of mass destruction have suddenly turned against her. For the past two years, albeit her political novice, she managed to survive and played high political poker games. She made a catastrophic mistake as she underestimated the opposition of amnesty bill. She was so confident the bill would go through with the majority in the House. Moreover, her nearly one billion baht frozen bank account linked his brother, as revealed by the Democrat Party during the no-confidence vote, also shattered her innocent image. Now, she is in ruins - her photogenic looks rear its ugly heads.

The second loser is the Red-shirt movement and its affiliated organizations. The confrontation they had over Saturday's night with the anti-government supporters at Ramkhamhaeng University, killing five persons and injuring scores have discredited further the groups as thuggish.

It is interesting to note that the Red-shirt supporters including businessmen and intellectuals have conspicuously absent from the political dialogue and debates these days. There must have been some realization among their peers the Red-shirt movements and political manifesto needed to be changed.

However, another biggest loser is Thailand's 180-year-old friend, the United States. After all these years, Washington is still do now know how to deal with Thailand. As the world's foremost supporter of democracy, the US could only say: the United States firmly believes all parties should work together to resolve differences through peaceful dialogue in ways that strengthen democracy and rule of law.

That helped explain why both former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and former finance minister Korn Chatikavanij joined the protesters to the US Embassy last week trying to explain the US about the nature of Thai politics.

Finally, there is one person, Thaksin, who is neither a winner nor a loser - not yet for the time being. He is a grand spectator housed in a VIP room far away from the blood, sweat and tear's struggle he helped to chronograph. As of now, he is thinking of his next bet.


-- The Nation 2013-12-02

[cdnvic]

If you have something to add, discuss it here, rather than just pasting outside links at each other.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

I don't think I have anything to add. A more typical propaganda piece by The Nation, just as I was sensing some common sense to break out there. (Their main commentary was borderline 'balanced' even.)

Edited December 2, 2013 by WinnieTheKhwai

[zydeco]

Just how did the United States become part of the equation?

[Emptyset]

As most people know, The Nation isn't exactly a fan of the government and Kavi is probably its most 'yellow' writer. His bias explains his thinking here. Most pro-govt and neutral people think that Suthep's days are numbered and protest numbers will gradually dwindle, unless something drastic happens. Can't see anticipate what Suthep's next move could be. He's gone as far as he can go in upping the ante without introducing outright violence, and govt has responded appropriately. Of course, if you talk to the anti-govt people, they seem to think they've never been stronger and are on the verge of a great victory. There's a lot of self-reinforcement that goes on in social movements.

I tend to think that both the government and the opposition will be weakened after this, and that might not be a bad thing if it leads to a more pluralistic society. And that should be the goal, not more bitter polarization and mindless hatred. I haven't seen any great awakening. But the conflict certainly has unleashed an orgy of online stupidy, coupled with the inevitable violence on the streets, tragic and pathetic in equal measure, rather like this article. Kavi seems to think this is a tyrannical and unpopular dictatorship rather than an elected government. I know that elections don't mean you can just do what you want and it's true that this government has made grave mistakes that need to be seriously looked at and punished.

The fact is, though, this government has millions of passionate supporters, probably still more than the opposition has. They're not just going to go away if the government is overthrown. I'd say the same to red shirts who seem to think that total victory can be achieved over the 'amaat' and their salim supporters, caring little for the concerns and feelings of those they intend to best. There can be no victory here which isn't phyric if the intention is to crush the other side rather than looking to work out some sort of modus vivendi.

'The second loser is the Red-shirt movement and its affiliated organizations. The confrontation they had over Saturday's night with the anti-government supporters at Ramkhamhaeng University, killing five persons and injuring scores have discredited further the groups as thuggish.'

Yes, well it certainly looks that way from the one side of the political divide, where they're completely ignoring pictures of student violence and fabricating an alternate narrative in which students were completely innocent and set upon by reds with hearts set on violence. The red shirts, of course, are also spinning a similar narrative in which they absolve their own side of any responsibility. The reality is, anyone that's followed this with an eye on the truth, rather than those motivated by partisan agendas, would see that neither the anti-govt RU students nor the red shirts have enhanced their reputations. On the one hand, we see students attacking old men unprovoked, smashing up a bus with scared old ladies inside, wrecking two minibuses and apparently setting another coach alight. On the other hand, we see red shirts reacting to those attacks with unnecesary and quite probably disproportionate violence.

Then things degenerated further into a chaotic brawl provocateurs took full advantage of, eventually trapping the students - the vast majority of whom were blameless and hadn't been involved in the fighting - in the university for what was no doubt a terrifying night. That's what happened as far as we can say for certain, though the exact truth, is as ever, murky.

But rather than viewing this savage incident as a chance to reflect on how this sort of violence can be prevented in future, both sides will instead believe exactly what they want to believe, feeling totally vindicated without a passing thought about how the other side might feel. For that reason, I very much doubt it'll have any effect on the way the wider conflict is perceived.

Edited December 2, 2013 by Emptyset

[noitom]

Kavi - Check out your first paragraph. You really should have someone proofread your writing before publishing. The amount of errors don't speak well for The Nation or the Thai press. If all this winning and losing comes about, the Thai press will have to import new writers and editors who can function and add value in a real free society. Thai press is not capable of the investigative journalism and tenacity required in a more free, open and informed society.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

If they actually do import writers, I would like to recommend Emptyset, above. Thaivisa does come up with true gems in posts, why isn't there any real media publication that gets even close?

Edited December 2, 2013 by WinnieTheKhwai

[jaltsc]

Winners?

How can there be a winner when the opposition only wants to overthrow the present regime and offers no constructive alternative programs which will improve the economic and social ills in today's Thai society? How can there be a winner when the present administration buries its head in the sand and refuses to address legitimate complaints about the way it is conducting business as usual? The biggest loser is Thailand and its image of being ineptly run. To the rest of the world, Thailand looks like a country that solves its problems with the schoolyard mentality of "Meet me behind the bleachers after class and we'll duke it out to see who wins". Both sides need to grow up and act responsibly instead of acting like squabbling children.

[chainarong]

it certainly is good to see the younger crowd out in force instead of playing all day on face book, the way the game is being played out there it could end up with a lot of losers , you need good planning for this continued protest, as we have seen, out of control protesters don't make any friends , they make enemy's from people who may have supported them at the beginning,

[rogerdee123]

I think Suthep's (the anti-govt opposition) end game is to negotiate directly with Thaksin. Why should they negotiate with Yingluck, she doesn't make any decisions? The deal will be ... Thaksin can have some of his money in return for withdrawing his mob from politics. Then there will be another election. PTP will run without Thaksin and without his money.

Before the flames begin .... understand that I'm not saying that this is the best solution or that I support this. I'm only saying I believe this may be the strategy.

----------

On another point, the English and grammar mistakes in Kavi's op-ed piece or any other English language newspaper in Thailand article don't bother me nor make the article any less interesting for me. And whether I agree with it or not ... it's an opinion and not "news". The opposite opinions are out there too.

[Thai at Heart]

Is this guy a film reviewer or a political journalist?

[Emptyset]

If they actually do import writers, I would like to recommend Emptyset, above. Thaivisa does come up with true gems in posts, why isn't there any real media publication that gets even close?

Yes, I definitely don't think I'm any better (thanks for the complement, though!) but would agree with your general point on the quality of Thai English language press. There are some good writers though. I like Pravit in The Nation, and Kong Rithdee in the BKK Post is often exceptional. One thing I've noticed is that opinion pieces in both main Eng language papers seem to have a tendency to be either obviously very partisan, or so equivocal that you have no idea what the writer's opinion, position or solution is.

[englishoak]

Winners ? the manufacturers of whistles, t shirts and other happy clappy gimmicks.

[DocN]

The losers: democracy, freedom and justice!

They were severely injured and on life- support before...now they started to pull the plugs!

[jayboy]

On another point, the English and grammar mistakes in Kavi's op-ed piece or any other English language newspaper in Thailand article don't bother me nor make the article any less interesting for me. And whether I agree with it or not ... it's an opinion and not "news". The opposite opinions are out there too.

Up to a point I agree.But Kavi's article is so riddled with basic errors (eg chronograph for choreograph) to the extent that it becomes distracting.The Nation is an English language newspaper and Kavi is one of its key columnists:thus there is a responsibility to get this right and it can be easily done.

Edited December 2, 2013 by jayboy

[Robby nz]

The winners today appear to be those who love to bitch at everything that comes out of The Nation, a great opportunity today, go for it fellas.

The only loser in all of this is Thailand, what a great country it could be if it had an honest government who worked for the people.

When, if ever, such a government emerges then we can talk about real winners.

[mrtoad]

Looks like Thailand as a whole is the loser.

Until the Shin cancer is cut out, this BS will continue.

[osten]

Propaganda indeed... It reads like a piece from China.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[osten]

By the way, don't they have any native English speaking editors at The Nation?

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[kutjebu]

What is Democracy????Only a view know that in Thailand.Sad.

[davehowden]

My Exchange Rate is a winner

[atsiii]

Having lost every popular election since 2001, are they not simply saying that: "if we can't have it our way, then to hell with this democracy thing?"

We will have a "Council" of our buddies, brothers and cousins who will "select" the government. Then, by Buddha, we will have our way! Who needs elections and democracy, anyway???

[AloisAmrein]

Explicit bullshit, what this yellow-shirt journalist is publishing in the "Nation". No word of illegal action against a democratically elected government, just chep yellow-shirt propaganda, declaring Suthep and Abisith as heroes, both charged by murder because of the 2010 clashes with more then 90 deaths.

[californiabeachboy]

I think Suthep's (the anti-govt opposition) end game is to negotiate directly with Thaksin. Why should they negotiate with Yingluck, she doesn't make any decisions? The deal will be ... Thaksin can have some of his money in return for withdrawing his mob from politics. Then there will be another election. PTP will run without Thaksin and without his money.

Before the flames begin .... understand that I'm not saying that this is the best solution or that I support this. I'm only saying I believe this may be the strategy.

----------

On another point, the English and grammar mistakes in Kavi's op-ed piece or any other English language newspaper in Thailand article don't bother me nor make the article any less interesting for me. And whether I agree with it or not ... it's an opinion and not "news". The opposite opinions are out there too.

Interesting post. I don't have a dog in this fight, but as a frequent visitor to the country and someone who has Thai friends there, I have followed the events over the last few days. I keep trying to figure out how Suthep becomes a winner here.

The demographics won't work - like most developing countries the poor vastly outnumber the middle class and the rich, so he will obviously always lose an election (as he and we all know).

Violence doesn't work for him either. I have several Thai middle class friends who do not like Thaksin and hated the idea of the amnesty, and went out and protested. But they are not the type to pick up stones, knives or whatever and do battle - they have jobs and families to take care of. They are not thugs (and I believe most Red Shirts are not either).

Doing a deal with the Big Man is possible, but what about a deal with the military? I don't think the Thai military really wants to run the country, it is outside of their pay scale. But what if Suthep creates as much havoc as he can (shutting down government), then goes to the military (who, as I understand it, does not like Thaksin), and says to them - Let's get rid of the Thaksin family from politics, I will run the country (we will call it a "People's Council"), and you can sit back fat and happy and do your thing.

I think that is the only way Suthep becomes a winner in this.

Edited December 2, 2013 by californiabeachboy

[upena]

English language is the obvious loser

[tubby johnson]

The author is in dire need of English lessons.

[dukeandduke]

Just how did the United States become part of the equation?

No kidding. The United States is a loser by hoping that Thailand reaches a peaceful resolution?

At least I won by finally finding some laughter in all of this.

[Guest]

Red shirts did a good call when they withdraw their people from the current scene. I guess yellows turned in to black shirts, were counting that there would be more violent incidents between the rival groups, which would have brought more fighters to the cause.

Now it seems that there is only thugs on the streets.

Winners are the media, who had finally courage to condemn the entry to the TV stations and thread to the 'free' press. I hope this courage will continue in the future towards all the sides, as it will be the real game changer.

[Ulic]

Losers and bigger losers, no winners here.

[sunshine51]

There are no winners in this fracas...everybody looses.