Doubt over Thailand high-speed rail plan's sustainability

[webfact]

Doubt over high-speed rail plan's sustainability
PICHAYA CHANGSORN
THE NATION


Marc Spiegel

BANGKOK: -- A HIGH-SPEED rail network is necessary for Thailand if the country wants to sustain its economic growth over the long term, but there is "a big question mark" over the project's financial sustainability.

This is the view of Marc Spiegel, regional managing director of Vinarco International, a leading provider of technical consultancy services.

Spiegel, who is also president of the Thai-Finnish Chamber of Commerce and vice chairman of the Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce in Thailand, told The Nation in an exclusive interview that to capture the opportunities from the government's recently announced Bt2-trillion high-speed rail and other mega-infrastructure projects in the region, Vinarco had asked him to help it launch a new infrastructure and railway division in September.

This adds to the company's existing services for the oil and gas, power, and ICT and telecommunications sectors.

High-speed rail is a specialised industry that requires highly skilled people, who are very hard to find in Thailand. "If Thailand undertakes the high-speed rail project, there are no qualified Thais," the Vinarco executive said, adding that Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was quoted as saying recently that the Kingdom would need 100,000 people to build its high-speed railway network.

However, according to a recent report from the Transport Ministry, the actual number needed to execute all of the projects in the Bt2-trillion infrastructure programme is more than 290,000, and a lot of the top-level expertise will need to come from abroad in order to fulfil all of the project requirements, he said.

Spiegel said a high-speed rail network would provide huge opportunities for the Thai economy to expand further, since it would help the country to develop its regional economies - as Bangkok has become very congested.

"Compared to other big cities where 25 per cent of the area is allocated to land transport, Bangkok only has 8 per cent. While the number of cars is growing, the city has reached a limit. If Thailand wants to grow for the long term, we must build its regional cities," he added.

Nevertheless, Spiegel said that as he had seen the government's high-speed rail plan so far, there was a big question mark over the issue of how to sustain the project over the long-term, as the fares charged were unlikely to cover the service's operating and maintenance costs.

This is because the fares cannot be pitched too high, or many Thais would be unable to afford to use the trains. Moreover, if there were too few passengers using the trains, then the objective of urbanising the country would not be met, he explained.

The French experience

Thailand could learn from France, which has a similar population size and geography, he said.

Despite its world-famous TGV high-speed trains and after more than 30 years of development, high-speed rail still represents less than 20 per cent of travellers and only 1,900 kilometres out of a total of around 30,000km of track in France, where the majority of travellers still have to use regular lines, according to a report in The Guardian.

Spiegel said Thailand's planned high-speed rail system was also crucial to China's ambitious plan to expand its extensive rail network to reach Malaysia and Singapore.

"It's a big problem [for China] if the Thai government doesn't release the [high-speed rail part of the] Bt2-trillion budget. Thailand is a hub in a wheel. The main spoke comes from Kunming [in Southern China]," he added.

Commenting on the Kingdom's current political problems, Spiegel - who has lived here for five years and witnessed the country's bloody "red-shirt" protests in 2010 - said there now seemed to be more divisions in the country than in the past.

"It has split now into so many groups. Like cracks in the wall, the more cracks you have, it's harder to put it back [together]," he said.

A native of Brooklyn, New York, Spiegel has spent the past 10 years working in Asia and plans to remain in Thailand permanently.


-- The Nation 2013-12-09

[draftvader]

How much did they pay them for this study? I really think we all knew this anyway the moment it was announced. If I remember rightly this is the summation of the thread on this topic when it came out a few months ago. Maybe we can all claim a small consulting fee?

[virtualtraveller]

Hi Speed trains are for moving busy 'cash rich, time poor' people from A to B frequently, like Osaka to Tokyo, no stopping to pick up vegetables along the way. It that is not the main need in the next 30 years then go for medium speed train that is sustainable. Cynically, you could also call it moving Chinese goods quickly from Kunming to Singapore.

[ramrod711]

Spiegel said Thailand's planned high-speed rail system was also crucial to China's ambitious plan to expand its extensive rail network to reach Malaysia and Singapore.

"It's a big problem [for China] if the Thai government doesn't release the [high-speed rail part of the] Bt2-trillion budget. Thailand is a hub in a wheel. The main spoke comes from Kunming [in Southern China]," he added.

Does this project have any benefit to anyone other than China? I mean besides the billions that friends of PTP will make speculating on land, and from direct kickbacks.

[JeremyBowskill]

High speed coffin to get to meet god quickly. Made in China maintained in Thailand, yes please where can I get a ticket?

[JoeThePoster]

No worries here considering it took them 30+ years to get Suvarnabhumi off the ground.

[trogers]

This is because the fares cannot be pitched too high, or many Thais would be unable to afford to use the trains. Moreover, if there were too few passengers using the trains, then the objective of urbanising the country would not be met, he explained.

Are they not facing precisely this problem on the Airport Link, a rail project initiated by Thaksin. I have not seen a mass transit service where intervals between trains can be almost 20 minutes.

[Local Drunk]

""It's a big problem [for China] if the Thai government doesn't release the [high-speed rail part of the] Bt2-trillion budget. Thailand is a hub in a wheel. The main spoke comes from Kunming [in Southern China]," he added."

I can only see it benefiting China if it's moving freight and not people. Freight is probably what the Chinese want it for.

Edited December 9, 2013 by Local Drunk

[JRSoul]

So even the guys that are looking at making a fortune out of this shonky deal admit that it will lose money like a sieve loses water. And given that only a minority of citizens use such transport in a much wealthier country, what percentage of low income Thais will ever climb aboard?

Edited December 9, 2013 by JRSoul

[JRSoul]

""It's a big problem [for China] if the Thai government doesn't release the [high-speed rail part of the] Bt2-trillion budget. Thailand is a hub in a wheel. The main spoke comes from Kunming [in Southern China]," he added."

I can only see it benefiting China if it's moving freight and not people. Freight is probably what the Chinese want it for.

Can you think of any Chinese freight that needs to be moved at 300km/h?

If it is that time critical, it goes by air.

[MaiChai]

People will fly to cover long distances quickly. In Japan high speed makes sense because of the volume of people travelling . Thailand needs a double track modern system more than a high speed service.

If the justification is because the Chinese want it, then that is not a good justification for Thais to get heavily in debt. Instead the Chinese should part finance/own it. Again, anyone wanting to cover vast distances quickly will fly!

[Joe Mamma]

""It's a big problem [for China] if the Thai government doesn't release the [high-speed rail part of the] Bt2-trillion budget. Thailand is a hub in a wheel. The main spoke comes from Kunming [in Southern China]," he added."

I can only see it benefiting China if it's moving freight and not people. Freight is probably what the Chinese want it for.

Can you think of any Chinese freight that needs to be moved at 300km/h?

If it is that time critical, it goes by air.

I can think of mass copious amounts of China industry flowing by in constant streams, setting up satellite China depots thru every country in it's expanding path of dominance.

[Lancelot]

Spiegel - who has lived here for five years and witnessed the country's bloody "red-shirt" protests in 2010 - said there now seemed to be more divisions in the country than in the past.

This guy will not do well in Thailand, he has lived here for five years and actually observes that every thing is not perfect. The authorities should retain some TV posters that have lived here for 20, 30+ years and NEVER had a problem...

Onwards and upwards

[lostmebike]

High-speed rail is a specialised industry that requires highly skilled people, who are very hard to find in Thailand. "If Thailand undertakes the high-speed rail project, there are no qualified Thais

Oh this statement is far too abrupt Mr Bagel, you might hurt their feelings

[belg]

what kind of jobs will it offer to thais

once it is completed?

to be able to import rice from other countries so a happy few can get disguesttingly rich by cheating the governement with their rice scams?

[Goat Roper]

High-speed rail is a specialised industry that requires highly skilled people, who are very hard to find in Thailand. "If Thailand undertakes the high-speed rail project, there are no qualified Thais

Oh this statement is far too abrupt Mr Bagel, you might hurt their feelings

Him gonna get in trouble for saying "there are no qualified Thais".

[JRSoul]

""It's a big problem [for China] if the Thai government doesn't release the [high-speed rail part of the] Bt2-trillion budget. Thailand is a hub in a wheel. The main spoke comes from Kunming [in Southern China]," he added."

I can only see it benefiting China if it's moving freight and not people. Freight is probably what the Chinese want it for.

Can you think of any Chinese freight that needs to be moved at 300km/h?

If it is that time critical, it goes by air.

I can think of mass copious amounts of China industry flowing by in constant streams, setting up satellite China depots thru every country in it's expanding path of dominance.

And a standard speed dual-track rail system would handle that. Is there a high speed rail freight network anywhere on this planet?

[Djaotchou]

Can you imagine this in Thailand, and it was 6 years ago: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfll-5h6Rg8

[eyz]

it's discussed in china tv network that china is going to fund the building of the railway in exchange of commodities, if the Thai aren't able to finance it.

china has been using such bilateral policy in so many countries already, and with Thailand lying along the network from China to Singapore, it would a double benefits for them.

[lostmebike]

I think he's politely trying to say that another country (China) needs to come in, fund(??), manage and build the whole thing.

Then it will work!

[sprq]

So even the guys that are looking at making a fortune out of this shonky deal admit that it will lose money like a sieve loses water. And given that only a minority of citizens use such transport in a much wealthier country, what percentage of low income Thais will ever climb aboard?

You're referring to France, and to the figure of 20 per cent. That figure does not mean that 80 per cent of the French cannot afford to travel by TGV (high-speed trains), it means that most of the rail network is not high speed and not suited to high speed. It has very little to do with affordability on the part of the populace.

That said, affordability is definitely an issue in Thailand. If these ridiculous high-speed trains are ever built, they will have very few passengers if the fares are pitched to make the SRT a profit.

[Local Drunk]

""It's a big problem [for China] if the Thai government doesn't release the [high-speed rail part of the] Bt2-trillion budget. Thailand is a hub in a wheel. The main spoke comes from Kunming [in Southern China]," he added."

I can only see it benefiting China if it's moving freight and not people. Freight is probably what the Chinese want it for.

Can you think of any Chinese freight that needs to be moved at 300km/h?

If it is that time critical, it goes by air.

I can think of mass copious amounts of China industry flowing by in constant streams, setting up satellite China depots thru every country in it's expanding path of dominance.

And a standard speed dual-track rail system would handle that. Is there a high speed rail freight network anywhere on this planet?

Yes...

http://www.worldfinance.com/infrastructure-investment/project-management/high-speed-rail-the-future-of-freight

[BestBitterPhuket]

it's discussed in china tv network that china is going to fund the building of the railway in exchange of commodities, if the Thai aren't able to finance it.

china has been using such bilateral policy in so many countries already, and with Thailand lying along the network from China to Singapore, it would a double benefits for them.

A perfect opportunity to get rid of all the rice

[thailandbeachisland]

The only fast train that will be done within 10 years is BKK - PATTAYA, nothing else to expect.

[allan michaud]

What do they mean a lack of experts... what about Chalerm and Plod, I am sure these 2 geniuses will be able to do it without the help of those pesky foreigners... and probably inside 90 days.

[hellodolly]

People will fly to cover long distances quickly. In Japan high speed makes sense because of the volume of people travelling . Thailand needs a double track modern system more than a high speed service.

If the justification is because the Chinese want it, then that is not a good justification for Thais to get heavily in debt. Instead the Chinese should part finance/own it. Again, anyone wanting to cover vast distances quickly will fly!

If you are going to go to all the expense to put in a double track modern system why not make it high speed?

The land for the new double track will cost the same as if you were just going to put in a wagon train. How much more does it cost to put in a proper bedding,sleepers and rails for a high speed train than a low speed train. What is the difference between high speed train and a modern system.

The major difference in cost will be in the train themselves and how much is the difference in cost between a high speed rail road car and a modern system car. The engine cost will definatly be higher.

The trick is to put it where needed. Like the rail to Chiang Mai is in no way sensible at this point in time. Or the foreseeable future. I am no expert on where the factories are or the distance to shipping terminals. I would leave that up to the experts not the politicians. Put them where they have a chance of paying there own way with freight and a desent passsenger rate and spend the rest on upgrading the safty standards of the insisting Rail routes and as time passes more high speed rails. Where needed.

[JoeThePoster]

""It's a big problem [for China] if the Thai government doesn't release the [high-speed rail part of the] Bt2-trillion budget. Thailand is a hub in a wheel. The main spoke comes from Kunming [in Southern China]," he added."

I can only see it benefiting China if it's moving freight and not people. Freight is probably what the Chinese want it for.

Can you think of any Chinese freight that needs to be moved at 300km/h?

If it is that time critical, it goes by air.

Peoples Liberation Army and their toys.

[lostmebike]

I heard a year or 2 ago that within 5/6 years there would be a rail link from Phrae to Chiang Rai. How's that coming on? Did they even start it?

[Greer]

So even the guys that are looking at making a fortune out of this shonky deal admit that it will lose money like a sieve loses water. And given that only a minority of citizens use such transport in a much wealthier country, what percentage of low income Thais will ever climb aboard?

You're referring to France, and to the figure of 20 per cent. That figure does not mean that 80 per cent of the French cannot afford to travel by TGV (high-speed trains), it means that most of the rail network is not high speed and not suited to high speed. It has very little to do with affordability on the part of the populace.

That said, affordability is definitely an issue in Thailand. If these ridiculous high-speed trains are ever built, they will have very few passengers if the fares are pitched to make the SRT a profit.

As it stands anything over 50Kmh could be considered "high speed" in comparison to the current SRT system - it reminds me of something you would expect to see in the outlying areas of places like India or someplace in Africa.

Even normal trains in Europe travel at 100Kmh, but the tracks and systems are designed and maintained for it. the proof of the takeup for a decent rail system is shown in the acceptance of the BTS and MRT, both of which provide an excellent service.

[The Fatman]

Troge - Brisbane airport trains run every 30 minutes roughly and at night even less so (at one time nothing after 7.30pm) granted it is a much smaller airport but per Km the cost, to actually get from the airport to what was the existing metro line, the fare is steep (not Heathrow - Paddington expensive) but overall cheaper than a taxi. The buses, private, charge the same as the train.

In this case I think a broader review is necessary. How many of the people who use it now are short distance commuters and would a separate freight system also make some sense. High speed is nice but you have to have demand I think a decent medium speed service with trains that did not come off the ark would be a great idea.