Political storm to come: Thailand

[webfact]

Political storm to come
The Star
Malaysia

All parties locked in Bangkok strife seem oblivious to growing peril

BANGKOK: -- Violent upheaval in Thailand is set to grow, getting a lot worse before (and if) things get any better.

On the external front, Thailand is at peace with the world. The "land of smiles" faces no enemy, foreign threat or serious competitor.

Its historical foe Burma, as the aspiring overlord next door when Thailand was still the absolute monarchy of Siam under different kingdoms, has long ceased to be the deadly irritant that it was.

Even Thailand's ancient rival Vietnam, in vying for influence over smaller neighbours like Laos and Cambodia, poses no such anxieties today.

The tempers that raged recently between Thailand and Cambodia over territory around a border temple had cooled swiftly after a decision by the International Court of Justice.

As Thailand is not among claimant states in its neighbourhood competing interminably for disputed maritime territory, old conflicts are as unlikely to arise with other nations as new ones to develop.

"Mai pen rai" attitude

Both regionally and further afield, Thailand can afford a laid-back "mai pen rai" attitude to current affairs. Modern developments like Asean membership have helped to iron out prospective wrinkles.

However, issues on the domestic front are an entirely different matter. Thailand continues to be rocked by not one but two crises of national proportions simultaneously.

Waves of anti- and pro-government dissent, sometimes violent, form a rising tide of lawlessness centred in Bangkok regardless of ideology or principle. The many problems are almost certain to get worse before they get better.

At the same time, sporadic violence in the southernmost provinces continues with no end in sight. While anybody in the wrong place at the wrong time can be attacked or killed, the cause of the violence remains largely unidentified.

Compounding these problems is the failure of many analysts to appreciate the prospective scale of each crisis and to understand the severity of the implications.

Worse, too few comprehend how both sets of issues not only occur simultaneously but also feed into each other, making for a grand conflagration.

Bangkok's woes deriving from the latest Thaksin-driven government are alarming for everyone throughout the country.

The issues and the problems they generate do not discriminate as to who or what is harmed.

On one level, the street protests are an unlawful way to unseat an elected government that had not been pronounced illegitimate by democratic, constitutional or juridical means.

Unlike previous administrations manipulated by convicted fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's government has not been found to have violated any law as to nullify its mandate. Suspicions of vote-buying in the 2011 election remain unproven allegations.

The preceding prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democrat Party, had even conceded defeat. Since then the street protests have grown in strength, with Abhisit joining in. The demonstrations are led by his former deputy premier Suthep Thaugsuban, who has an arrest warrant on his head.

Instead of the warrant being served on Suthep, he has called for the arrest of the prime minister. That all this has been allowed to spiral speaks volumes of a failure of governance.

In trying to topple the government by provoking a military coup, the protesters are demonstrating not just their dislike of a government, but against the undisputed result of an election.

Yet nobody doubts that the anti-government demonstrators are outnumbered by the pro-government ones who have yet to emerge this time.

Far from the Bangkok-centred mess being an exclusively Bangkok imbroglio, it divides the pro-Thaksin North and the anti-Thaksin South and Bangkok. It is a deteriorating national divide that is set to grow deeper and wider.

This crisis shows that Yingluck's government has lost all control of events at street level.

Yingluck tried to negotiate with the protest leaders, only to be spurned by them as they insisted that she quit. She then called for a meeting with the Election Commission and the opposition, only to be shunned by both.

She then planned to announce her resignation on Thursday afternoon, only to be told by Thaksin by phone to stay put. The prime minister has now drifted past the point of patching up her credibility, with scant hope of salvaging any dignity of office.

Taking advantage

The crisis with its epicentre in Bangkok is essentially a crisis of governance, of the lack of governance at the centre. And that is precisely the fuel that insurgents in the South have been looking for to widen their scale of operations.

It has been nearly a year now since supposed peace talks facilitated by Malaysia were first held between the Thai government and the insurgents, the latter as represented by the underground rebel group, the BRN (Barisan Revolusi Nasional) Coordinate.

A few preliminary meetings were held since last February, with little follow-up until a stalemate. Neither Bangkok nor the BRN showed commitment to the talks. Now talk of the peace talks seems like such a long and forlorn time ago, as regression sets in with a return to violence.

Thailand's "southern violence" has been known to afflict the three southernmost provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat for decades. Over the past year it has been spilling over these provinces in heading north.

Last December, multiple bombs went off in Padang Besar and Dan Nok in Songkhla province. They targeted police stations and commercial establishments, leaving no doubt they had been the work of militants.

This had followed another bombing campaign in Phuket, a little further north, in early August. The target then was Phuket City Hall.

Earlier in May, a bomb went off in Bangkok itself in Ramkhamhaeng Soi 43/1. Opinion was divided even within the security forces over whether this was the work of southern insurgents, until a rebel group claimed responsibility.

Insurgents have no doubt that they oppose established authority, and no Thai authority is so targeted as the national government in Bangkok.

Since November at least, that national authority is seen everywhere as weak and in decline.

Meanwhile, all parties locked in their urban-centred strife in Bangkok seem oblivious to the perilous potential of both crises growing until they merge into a mega-turmoil expanding exponentially.

If left unattended, that long-lamented Bangkok-centric attitude may prove the catastrophic undoing of the country as a whole.

-- The Nation 2014-01-20

[bangkokheat]

this is the thing that power brokers or governments just dont get, you keep pissing off the majority and they going to come back and bite you, you dont have to be einstein to work that out

[FangFerang]

Wow. The news piece affords little in the way of taking sides, which is an indicator to me of well-written journalism. It is tragic to see this unfolding.

It will not be long before the cheerleaders on both sides are posting with their pom-poms shaking.

[EricBerg]

Still there is the chance of unifying the country. When the ptp loses it's voters due to the failed rice scheme there is room for another party to move in.

Whatever party that will be, it's leadership will have to treat all Thais equally and take them seriously. And not fall back into old elitarian behaviour as the people have experienced so often before.

Effectively fighting corruption will be the prime task for that new government.

[noitom]

It was "fair and balanced."

[englishoak]

BANGKOK: -- Violent upheaval in Thailand is set to grow, getting a lot worse before (and if) things get any better.

It is exactly this kind of press claim that will help deteriorate things further. imo is irresponsible to be so pessimistic of a national newspaper, it helps not one bit even if it is true. It should have simply said

BANGKOK: -- Violent upheaval in Thailand could be set to grow.

[WitawatWatawit]

While the article alluded to a failure of governance, it did not consider the one problem that afflicts the entire country and society - and that is a failure of leadership overall. At every level, be it civil society, the bureaucracy, provincial and tambon administration, security agencies, even sporting groups - where are there any real leaders, those staunch, stoic, principled, decent folk who stand up for what is correct and proper, who lead by example? Thai society is divided, as the article correctly states, but it is not just social divisions as it claims, and as many people claim. It is a failure to produce good, decent men and women, people of honour and integrity and fortitude, to lead society. The failure of leadership.

[MJP]

BANGKOK: -- Violent upheaval in Thailand is set to grow, getting a lot worse before (and if) things get any better.

It is exactly this kind of press claim that will help deteriorate things further. imo is irresponsible to be so pessimistic of a national newspaper, it helps not one bit even if it is true. It should have simply said

BANGKOK: -- Violent upheaval in Thailand could be set to grow.

This is the most bothersome quote . . .

The crisis with its epicentre in Bangkok is essentially a crisis of governance, of the lack of governance at the centre. And that is precisely the fuel that insurgents in the South have been looking for to widen their scale of operations.

[Spalpeen]

Wow. The news piece affords little in the way of taking sides, which is an indicator to me of well-written journalism. It is tragic to see this unfolding.

It will not be long before the cheerleaders on both sides are posting with their pom-poms shaking.

.

It's not a news piece though, is it? It's an opinion piece. And while it's long on breast beating and bemoaning, it's short on positive suggestions of a way forward. Another problem with this piece is that it completely fails to mention the elephant in the room that everyone knows is at the heart of the problem.

Yet another problem is that it makes no criticism of the generals. For years they have utterly failed to suppress the violence in the south, and now they are failing to support democracy in the capital. They should feel ashamed when they draw their pay cheque every month.

[MaxLee]

Battlefield Bangkok to come....

[Somtamnication]

The Carpenter's "We've only just begun" comes to mind.

[BillyBobThai]

I think that it would be a good thing if Thailand was to appoint a foreign PM and a group of 30 or so to advise him/her for one four year term only. Any rulling would have to be approved by royal decree. This group would be made up of of westerners and easteners, with no Thai's allowed during this four year term. A new constitution would be drafted and submitted to the Thai people to vote on. At 42 months an election would be held to elect a parliment and PM.

I know, only in my dreams.

[Artisi]

I think that it would be a good thing if Thailand was to appoint a foreign PM and a group of 30 or so to advise him/her for one four year term only. Any rulling would have to be approved by royal decree. This group would be made up of of westerners and easteners, with no Thai's allowed during this four year term. A new constitution would be drafted and submitted to the Thai people to vote on. At 42 months an election would be held to elect a parliment and PM.

I know, only in my dreams.

Correct, only in your WILDEST dreams.

[awayego]

While the article alluded to a failure of governance, it did not consider the one problem that afflicts the entire country and society - and that is a failure of leadership overall. At every level, be it civil society, the bureaucracy, provincial and tambon administration, security agencies, even sporting groups - where are there any real leaders, those staunch, stoic, principled, decent folk who stand up for what is correct and proper, who lead by example? Thai society is divided, as the article correctly states, but it is not just social divisions as it claims, and as many people claim. It is a failure to produce good, decent men and women, people of honour and integrity and fortitude, to lead society. The failure of leadership.

Very true but the leaders Thailand needs so badly have to rise up out of the quagmire of corruption and poor education - perhaps too much to expect, unfortunately.

[WitawatWatawit]

While the article alluded to a failure of governance, it did not consider the one problem that afflicts the entire country and society - and that is a failure of leadership overall. At every level, be it civil society, the bureaucracy, provincial and tambon administration, security agencies, even sporting groups - where are there any real leaders, those staunch, stoic, principled, decent folk who stand up for what is correct and proper, who lead by example? Thai society is divided, as the article correctly states, but it is not just social divisions as it claims, and as many people claim. It is a failure to produce good, decent men and women, people of honour and integrity and fortitude, to lead society. The failure of leadership.

Very true but the leaders Thailand needs so badly have to rise up out of the quagmire of corruption and poor education - perhaps too much to expect, unfortunately.

Indeed. There are such people, of course - Sulak Srivalak comes to mind. Prateep Ungsongtham. Supachai Panitchpakdi. Just not enough of them.

[FLHR]

While the article alluded to a failure of governance, it did not consider the one problem that afflicts the entire country and society - and that is a failure of leadership overall. At every level, be it civil society, the bureaucracy, provincial and tambon administration, security agencies, even sporting groups - where are there any real leaders, those staunch, stoic, principled, decent folk who stand up for what is correct and proper, who lead by example? Thai society is divided, as the article correctly states, but it is not just social divisions as it claims, and as many people claim. It is a failure to produce good, decent men and women, people of honour and integrity and fortitude, to lead society. The failure of leadership.

Agree! Like to add the need for education reforms. Reading, writting & brainwashing nationalism isn't going to cut it, other than benifiting the so called elites.

[kjun12]

this is the thing that power brokers or governments just dont get, you keep pissing off the majority and they going to come back and bite you, you dont have to be einstein to work that out

Who are you calling the majority?

[kjun12]

BANGKOK: -- Violent upheaval in Thailand is set to grow, getting a lot worse before (and if) things get any better.

It is exactly this kind of press claim that will help deteriorate things further. imo is irresponsible to be so pessimistic of a national newspaper, it helps not one bit even if it is true. It should have simply said

BANGKOK: -- Violent upheaval in Thailand could be set to grow.

I could not disagree with you more. This is the type of fair handed journalism Thailand needs. Not the often one-sided articles we see too often.

[kjun12]

I think that it would be a good thing if Thailand was to appoint a foreign PM and a group of 30 or so to advise him/her for one four year term only. Any rulling would have to be approved by royal decree. This group would be made up of of westerners and easteners, with no Thai's allowed during this four year term. A new constitution would be drafted and submitted to the Thai people to vote on. At 42 months an election would be held to elect a parliment and PM.

I know, only in my dreams.

You've got to be dreaming. The Thais actually believe that they are intelligent people who can actually govern themselves very well. This is after many years of failed governments that have not had a clue of how to govern except as an avenue to steal everything each supposed public servant can steal. This countrys patetic culture is what has held Thailand back and why it will be a second rate country for the forseeable future.

[northernjohn]

Still there is the chance of unifying the country. When the ptp loses it's voters due to the failed rice scheme there is room for another party to move in.

Whatever party that will be, it's leadership will have to treat all Thais equally and take them seriously. And not fall back into old elitarian behaviour as the people have experienced so often before.

Effectively fighting corruption will be the prime task for that new government.

If I may I would like to add the following from the article.

Waves of anti- and pro-government dissent, sometimes violent, form a rising tide of lawlessness centred in Bangkok regardless of ideology or principle. The many problems are almost certain to get worse before they get better.

Protesting is only lawless if the government passes laws to say it is. The lawful protests have been the cause of the lawlessness. It does not take much thinking to see where the lawlessness is coming from. Who has been talking about building up arms? Who has a record of using them against legal establishments. I won't name names so you people who were not here in 2010 will have to ask some one.

At the same time, sporadic violence in the southernmost provinces continues with no end in sight. While anybody in the wrong place at the wrong time can be attacked or killed, the cause of the violence remains largely unidentified.

It would be nice to see an honest attempt made at solving the deep south problem also. As it sits now people are dying on a regular base down there and there has been no attempt to solve the problem. the cause of the violence is well known. No matter how out of hand the violence in Bangkok can get it will not hold a candle to the death toll in the south.

It is almost as if the Nation and the Government have just excepted it and ignore it. Sending soldiers and holding peace talks with dissident groups who have nothing to do with the violence any more is not an answer. In fact sending more soldiers has just been supplying more people to be killed and a source of weapons for the extremist's.

[khunJeroen]

Still there is the chance of unifying the country. When the ptp loses it's voters due to the failed rice scheme there is room for another party to move in.

Whatever party that will be, it's leadership will have to treat all Thais equally and take them seriously. And not fall back into old elitarian behaviour as the people have experienced so often before.

Effectively fighting corruption will be the prime task for that new government.

If I may I would like to add the following from the article.

Waves of anti- and pro-government dissent, sometimes violent, form a rising tide of lawlessness centred in Bangkok regardless of ideology or principle. The many problems are almost certain to get worse before they get better.

Protesting is only lawless if the government passes laws to say it is. The lawful protests have been the cause of the lawlessness. It does not take much thinking to see where the lawlessness is coming from. Who has been talking about building up arms? Who has a record of using them against legal establishments. I won't name names so you people who were not here in 2010 will have to ask some one.

At the same time, sporadic violence in the southernmost provinces continues with no end in sight. While anybody in the wrong place at the wrong time can be attacked or killed, the cause of the violence remains largely unidentified.

It would be nice to see an honest attempt made at solving the deep south problem also. As it sits now people are dying on a regular base down there and there has been no attempt to solve the problem. the cause of the violence is well known. No matter how out of hand the violence in Bangkok can get it will not hold a candle to the death toll in the south.

It is almost as if the Nation and the Government have just excepted it and ignore it. Sending soldiers and holding peace talks with dissident groups who have nothing to do with the violence any more is not an answer. In fact sending more soldiers has just been supplying more people to be killed and a source of weapons for the extremist's.

Maybe best to leave Thailand for some time and come back when this has been put to rest for another 2 years. Singapore feels much more comfortable, watching what is happening to unfold from a distance.

[smedly]

this is the thing that power brokers or governments just dont get, you keep pissing off the majority and they going to come back and bite you, you dont have to be einstein to work that out

and of course it was the honesty - integrity - truthful - none corrupt - none abusive - fair - expert governance of PTP that didn't cause the current unrest and protests - and of course the answer is to let them continue the destruction of Thailand unabated - right ?

and keep putting the same convicted corrupt people back in power once their 5 year ban has expired lol - the never ending cycle of thieves

[CIHUAHUA]

BANGKOK: -- Violent upheaval in Thailand is set to grow, getting a lot worse before (and if) things get any better.

It is exactly this kind of press claim that will help deteriorate things further. imo is irresponsible to be so pessimistic of a national newspaper, it helps not one bit even if it is true. It should have simply said

BANGKOK: -- Violent upheaval in Thailand could be set to grow.

Based on the past decade I disagree with you. I think "irresponsible" belongs in the Thai behavior and not the press. "Pessimistic" ?, Well, once again - based on the past 82 years how could anyone be optimistic even your edit "Violent upheaval in Thailand could be set to grow." is pessimistic. I think it is optimistic to think the press can deteriorate things as they are doing a good job at it by themselves.

[Baerboxer]

BANGKOK: -- Violent upheaval in Thailand is set to grow, getting a lot worse before (and if) things get any better.

It is exactly this kind of press claim that will help deteriorate things further. imo is irresponsible to be so pessimistic of a national newspaper, it helps not one bit even if it is true. It should have simply said

BANGKOK: -- Violent upheaval in Thailand could be set to grow.

Justification of the tactic - " it's o.k. to tell little white lies if it keeps the people happy" ?

You'll fit right in with the caretaker regime. The government know best, it's not always right to tell the people the truth, lying is ethical.

Let's start by assuring everyone that the rice scheme isn't making a real loss, there is no corruption in this government (PM/DM has stated so), and that the guy caught doing multiple voting wasn't really doing anything wrong, just breaking parliamentary rules.

That's the problem with lying - one leads to another, to another and another. And then no one recognizes the truth.

Journalists, of all people, should report the facts, truth and not bias them............ or lie.

[Alwyn]

While the article alluded to a failure of governance, it did not consider the one problem that afflicts the entire country and society - and that is a failure of leadership overall. At every level, be it civil society, the bureaucracy, provincial and tambon administration, security agencies, even sporting groups - where are there any real leaders, those staunch, stoic, principled, decent folk who stand up for what is correct and proper, who lead by example? Thai society is divided, as the article correctly states, but it is not just social divisions as it claims, and as many people claim. It is a failure to produce good, decent men and women, people of honour and integrity and fortitude, to lead society. The failure of leadership.

Fair comment.

[BlackJack]

Some say Myanmar is not ready and not a threat

but the rate of change there has been phenomenal

so much so that it has created a short fall of workers for Thailand projects

many of the projects started or planned have problems in getting workers and so may not even get off the ground

Its new fresh untouched coral reefs and beaches are what Thailand had 30 years ago

To add salt to the wound Myanmar is the Chair for ASEAN

Add the recent news that Myanmar will offer permanent residency to foreigners it is clear that Myanmar intends to not only get foreigners cash coming in but also the skills that they will bring with them.

I see a cash and brain drain for Thailand in the next few years, if the governments et al dont start sorting out the S mess they have created.

[Alwyn]

I think that it would be a good thing if Thailand was to appoint a foreign PM and a group of 30 or so to advise him/her for one four year term only. Any rulling would have to be approved by royal decree. This group would be made up of of westerners and easteners, with no Thai's allowed during this four year term. A new constitution would be drafted and submitted to the Thai people to vote on. At 42 months an election would be held to elect a parliment and PM.

I know, only in my dreams.

It would make more sense to do it the other way around. Thai PM with foreign advisors. The the advisors will get to see what the real story is be able to offer direction. Could you imagine a foreign PM be advised by the Thais? Nothing would be gained. Probably not the way I offered either come to that. As you said, In our dreams

[Alwyn]

An unbiased opinion for a change. It has made me wonder about something. The bombings in town at the moment. Each side blaming each other and getting nowhere. Could it be southern insurgents taking the opportunities offered up by the protests? Nobody seems to hate government buildings more than they do and add in a bit more chaos at the same time distabalixing the country when it's more or less at it's weakest, right up their street. Just a thought. Now there's something that could be comon ground for pro and anit governmant types

[Scamper]

In Thailand's long history, it has never been occupied by a foreign power. It is a rather remarkable achievement in this region of the globe, borne of keen diplomacy and an accommodating stance. Internally, though, there has often been great conflict. On the whole, this article reaches some fairly safe conclusions. Although it mentions the cultural divides that are present, it does not make the mistake of focusing on them exclusively, which many prefer to do. The situation is much more complex than that. The class divisions undoubtedly play a role, but so do so many other things. The South has been crumbling for years in its own conflict - often much ignored and papered over by the rest of the country. But at the heart of the problem has always been the presence of corruption. In fact, the embracement of it on a day to day basis. Corruption is so absorbed and accepted as a practice that it has - by itself - eroded and impeded any administration of a credible centrist role that seeks to bind all parts of the country in a manner that is not tainted by either bribery or coercion. For that to change will require a sea change. Even at the seemingly fast pace of today's events, the road ahead will always be much slower, more cautious, and full of steps forward and steps back. However, that process has undoubtedly begun. And that is a process that brings hope.

[Hugh Geen]

I am more afraid of strong nationalistic government and governance than weak and incompetent government and governance.