the future

[stevehaigh]

i just saw the movie 'her' last night, its on TPB. it's maybe the most thought provoking moving in, well forever, i highly recommend everyone check it out.

anyhow, it got me thinking about the future and i thought it would be an interesting discussion topic (although i agree not very Phuket related so it will probably get moved somewhere else).

anyhow, i'm 55, reasonably fit, eat right, exercise, don't drink too much. so unless i get taken out by a minibus driver on yaa-baa (a very real possibility around here), i should be around until 90 or so, that's 2050.

and that's assuming i don't get to benefit from any life extending medical breakthroughs like 3D printing new organs and gene therapy. if those are available, and more importantly, if i can afford them, i could be around into 2060 or so. that's a pretty scary thought.

so the first problem i see is what do i do for money? i don't have enough retirement savings for that and not sure the US social security system has either, but that's not what i want to discuss.

i'm wondering what the world (and Phuket) might look like in 20-40 years, i.e. things that i have a good chance of seeing.

these are just a few of my thoughts but i'd be interested to here yours.

1) Technology: according to consensus of 'futurists', the technological singularity, a hypothetical moment in time when artificial intelligence will have progressed to the point of a greater-than-human intelligence, radically changing civilization, and perhaps human nature, may be around 2040. see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity. like in the movie that got me thinking about this, we may no longer bother interacting with humans when computer make much better companions.

Will we have robots to cook our food, clean our houses, helps us go to the bathroom, take care or our other needs? its hard to imagine they could make a sexbot dumber than the average essan bar girl. but again, could we afford that stuff or will we still need wives, girlfriends and mia nois?

2) Climate change. i think we are in an ideal place to withstand the effects of climate change here. as we've seen, weather around the world is becoming more extreme every year, but here in Phuket, its pretty damn nice. no typhoons, no drought, and even sea level rise is unlikely to be a big problem as most of the land is way above current sea levels.

3) Thailand: this is maybe a big unknown, especially as is relates to farangs. without getting into un-discussable subjects, we all know there is going to be a profound change in Thailand in the next 10-20 years or so. will we still be able to live here on long term visas and will it be practical and comfortable to do so?

4) Radical religion: will the you know whos from the south rise up in a world wide Jihad?

anyhow, this is just a bunch of random thoughts at the moment but maybe other TV members have thoughts about the future too?

[Old Croc]

Nah, just living in the day.

In regards to climate change and flooding, the word amongst the fortune tellers, and repeated in gossip circles, is that Phuket is going to sink in three years!

[hansgruber]

You're not guaranteed tomorrow so I don't even think that far ahead. Now is now.

[Roel]

There are two kind of farangs. The first look down on and constantly bash the mai pen rai attitude. The second kind of adopted the attitude and live accordingly. Believe me the latter group is far more happier. I strongly recommend you join the second group!

[KarenBravo]

My financial plan for retirement requires me to die at 71 years and six months old.

[Felt 35]

Go back 30 years and look at the change from then to now. I believe we are in for similar changes the coming 30 years. However I don't believe robots would be our "next of kind" so mia luang will still be around! But the service industry will be exceptional simplified as we already see signs of now and most things can be arranged from your home.

I don't agree with your view point regarding climate change and I personally think it will have a huge impact all over the Asian and African continent if we think 30-50 years ahead.

Thailand will mainly be populated with Asians and Phuket will be a business city more like Hatyai with a huge harbour and a few polluted beaches and by that time even Khao Lak and Phang-nga will be faded tourist spots. Most foreigners will by that time prefer to live in Europe even as retires due to extreme drought, pollution and over population in Asia.

I believe WWIII which there its not anymore a question about coming, but when will take care of issues regarding radical religion.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Felt 35

[stevehaigh]

thanks felt 35 for keeping the subject going. do you think the population of Thailand will increase significantly? it seems pretty stable at the moment.

i would say that Thailand will be far behind the technological revolution, so while robots may be looking after you in your old age in the USA, Europe, Oz, etc, it probably will be mostly the human touch here. maybe that will attract more technophobic foreigners to here

[fiddlehead]

Next time you are in the states, take a trip to one of the nursing homes.
Lots of people staring off into space, slobbering without knowing it, eating tiny amounts of food, and getting skinny-er by the day.
Many of them are in their 80s and 90s.
It doesn't look like much fun and they don't smile or laugh much.
So, whether technology advances, robots take care of us or not, no nuclear wars or radiation getting out of hand, I don't know if I will want to live past 85 or 90.

Like others said, just do all you can now and don't worry too much about who is going to take care of you when you're too old to take care of yourself.

[Guest]

Even if the robots will be doing more services for us and the AI advancing heaps, it will not change the world so much.

Futurists sometimes forget that the services, which we can enjoy more here in Thailand, compared to the western world are much more than executing a task. They sometimes think like accountants, following path of logical conclusions. This might work well for engineering, but not for the real life out there.

Services, which we receive in our everyday life are not just executing tasks, but much more. The more part comes from the human interaction, while we are been served. These could be simple things as a smile, little touch, joke or some comment which leads to sharing ideas between people.

While we might be eating 3D printed food and let our cars to drive themselves in a near future (10-20 years), I doubt that we would accept an AI companion for ourselves. Errare humanum ets. We make mistakes, mess things up and are often irrational with our thinking. That's something we require from ourselves and from the people around us and it's something which a random generator might be able to simulate, but it would not really be the same. Making errors are also good part of creating new as our mistakes makes us to think how things could be done in a different way.

Thailand and the rest of the developing world are in a way Amish cultures, where we still are able to enjoy moderately simple life. Places, where traditional values of family, enjoying good food and the moment are more appreciated compared to the hectic city life somewhere in the farangland. That's one charm of this place.

[NBD]

The only consistent theme of long range predictions is that they are wrong with a remarkable consistency. Best bet is to be flexible enough to adapt and financially secure enough not to have to depend on your predictions.

[iancnx]

I don't think Thailand will be behing in 10 or 15 years from now. I believe it will be as technologically advanced as Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and ummmmmmm oh yeah...... I remember now..... China!

[drhugo]

If you REALLY want to know the future - that is history written in advance - go to: www.rcg.org and believe it for that is the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth! Amen!

[stevehaigh]

The only consistent theme of long range predictions is that they are wrong with a remarkable consistency.

watch a few Ray Kurzweil video's on youtube. he's been consistently correct with future predictions for the last 30 years

[jackflash]

Steve,

Thanks for an interesting topic.

40 years ago it was predicted that the rise in productivity would mean that we wouldn't have to work, and could instead enjoy our hobbies, etc.

Instead the super rich have diverted the productivity gains to themselves, leaving the average person working harder that ever.

Unless we can return to a more egalitarian society, I think we are doomed.

[NamKangMan]

Steve,

Thanks for an interesting topic.

40 years ago it was predicted that the rise in productivity would mean that we wouldn't have to work, and could instead enjoy our hobbies, etc.

Instead the super rich have diverted the productivity gains to themselves, leaving the average person working harder that ever.

Unless we can return to a more egalitarian society, I think we are doomed.

You may find this article interesting. I can only see globalisation getting bigger in the future.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/20/oxfam-85-richest-people-half-of-the-world

[stevehaigh]

Steve,

Thanks for an interesting topic.

40 years ago it was predicted that the rise in productivity would mean that we wouldn't have to work, and could instead enjoy our hobbies, etc.

Instead the super rich have diverted the productivity gains to themselves, leaving the average person working harder that ever.

Unless we can return to a more egalitarian society, I think we are doomed.

this is a subject i'm very interested in. futurists like Ray Kurzweil and that Macu Picho guy always seem to project a startrekian like future where everyone looks happy, drives flying cars, wears spandex uniforms, and gets along with everyone but the Klingons. i think that future technologies will eliminate low skill jobs like farming, service industry and manufacturing jobs, so where will that leave the poor uneducated masses? for people who can afford robot nurse maids and new kidneys on demand, great, but for the rest, where are they going to make a living in this brave new world?

[JetsetBkk]

If you REALLY want to know the future - that is history written in advance - go to: www.rcg.org and believe it for that is the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth! Amen!

Ugh. No thanks.

[Mr Brown]

Thai wont be the first language spoken in Phuket. It will be replaced by Russian/Slavonic and if you want to see trees you will have to look at the photos of them in books.

[Guest]

i think that future technologies will eliminate low skill jobs like farming, service industry and manufacturing jobs, so where will that leave the poor uneducated masses? for people who can afford robot nurse maids and new kidneys on demand, great, but for the rest, where are they going to make a living in this brave new world?

You make an assumption that there will be poor and uneducated people. That assumption might be wrong.

I'll make an prediction that in 20 years some people are interconnected 'telepathically' to each others, creating one huge cloud computing system using human brains. In 40 years most of us are connected. At that time we'll be educated in the style what Matrix showed with the exception that there is no need for a physical cord. Synapses can be reorganized through the skull.

I'll also predict that we are not going get cancer anymore, nor suffer from genetic diseases.

Someone could call those wacky-hoho predictions, but is it really so? Just a few logical steps away from where we are now.

When we take a peek of the science what is happening right now. There has been already years of studies how to read human mind by analysing brain waves. These studies are still at toddlers level, but at some point there will be breakthroughs, which will push a flow of money and people to get the study further. Then we'll be able to read and write to the brain and share the information, just like internet allows us to do at the moment at snail's speed, compared what the direct brain connections will allow us to do.

Maybe at this point we'll use the idle brain time for decoding background radiation, to help the SETI project?

We are also studying the DNA. These studies will eventually create a fullish database which maps the DNA to the individual's health hazards. The next logical step is to start modifying person DNA at moment of ovulation... or later on doing repairs to the existing or printed stem cells.

On the way there, we'll find a lot of new things to study and wonder.

[madmitch]

thanks felt 35 for keeping the subject going. do you think the population of Thailand will increase significantly? it seems pretty stable at the moment.

i would say that Thailand will be far behind the technological revolution, so while robots may be looking after you in your old age in the USA, Europe, Oz, etc, it probably will be mostly the human touch here. maybe that will attract more technophobic foreigners to here

The Thai authorities will still be working out how to issue work permits to robots.

[Felt 35]

thanks felt 35 for keeping the subject going. do you think the population of Thailand will increase significantly? it seems pretty stable at the moment.

i would say that Thailand will be far behind the technological revolution, so while robots may be looking after you in your old age in the USA, Europe, Oz, etc, it probably will be mostly the human touch here. maybe that will attract more technophobic foreigners to here

In 1960 the population of Thailand was approximately 27.5 million and today around 67 million and the trend is said to go upward. That means that the Thai population represent 1.01 percent of the worlds total population which again means that one person in every 100 people on the planet is a resident of Thailand.

Regarding the technological revolution do I think Thailand will be in the middle. At old age some extremely well looking and paid super nurses will look after you with their human touch but the cost will probably be as comparing a stay at Wachira with Bumrungrad Hospital today.

[Briggsy]

In 40 years, the main form of public transport on Phuket will still be a tuk-tuk belching stinking fumes. It will still be ridiculously overpriced. It will still be driven by a violent psychopath who may be able to suppress his aggressive tendencies for the duration of the journey. And there will still be at least 2 or 3 articles every month about Phuket's "taxis" beating up tourists over parking spots.

[JetsetBkk]

In 40 years, the main form of public transport on Phuket will still be a tuk-tuk belching stinking fumes. It will still be ridiculously overpriced. It will still be driven by a violent psychopath who may be able to suppress his aggressive tendencies for the duration of the journey. And there will still be at least 2 or 3 articles every month about Phuket's "taxis" beating up tourists over parking spots.

You've really got a 'thing' about Phuket, haven't you?

[robertthebruce]

There will be a ''Disney Land'' in ''Patong''...

[iSabai]

In 40 years, the main form of public transport on Phuket will still be a tuk-tuk belching stinking fumes. It will still be ridiculously overpriced. It will still be driven by a violent psychopath who may be able to suppress his aggressive tendencies for the duration of the journey. And there will still be at least 2 or 3 articles every month about Phuket's "taxis" beating up tourists over parking spots.

And in 40 years, and older, somewhat mellower, and somewhat more senile NKM will still be here on TV railing against those tuk tuks and the belching stinking fumes mafia!

[IsaanUSA]

In the future, people will actually pay for movies and not pirate them because we will all be part of some type of worldwide subscription based service.

Saw the movie last night in the cinema. It was good, but the future seems strange. Interesting movie.

[mochafan]

Next time you are in the states, take a trip to one of the nursing homes.

Lots of people staring off into space, slobbering without knowing it, eating tiny amounts of food, and getting skinny-er by the day.

Many of them are in their 80s and 90s.

It doesn't look like much fun and they don't smile or laugh much.

So, whether technology advances, robots take care of us or not, no nuclear wars or radiation getting out of hand, I don't know if I will want to live past 85 or 90.

Like others said, just do all you can now and don't worry too much about who is going to take care of you when you're too old to take care of yourself.

Seriously, why would anyone want to live that old? Even 75 or 80. What the hell kind of life can a person lead at that age? I see many old people barely able to walk , can't hear or see very well, Probably need help using the toilet...probably can't wipe their own ass. A burden on their family. NO Way! how selfish.

Edited January 22, 2014 by mochafan

[quiuvo]

I had a topic that was much more thought provocative than yours, in the present though. The powers that be closed it. Yours should be too! But you got a reply from me so congrats!

Incrible. Hey what will the LA freeway 405 look like in 20 years and can Thailand ever have real democracy with voting every four to eight years . Sell the rice first and no future scheming. Put law breakers in jail? Common sense I think may be a required class at university curriculum.

[quiuvo]

Next time you are in the states, take a trip to one of the nursing homes.

Lots of people staring off into space, slobbering without knowing it, eating tiny amounts of food, and getting skinny-er by the day.

Many of them are in their 80s and 90s.

It doesn't look like much fun and they don't smile or laugh much.

So, whether technology advances, robots take care of us or not, no nuclear wars or radiation getting out of hand, I don't know if I will want to live past 85 or 90.

Like others said, just do all you can now and don't worry too much about who is going to take care of you when you're too old to take care of yourself.

Seriously, why would anyone want to live that old? Even 75 or 80. What the hell kind of life can a person lead at that age? I see many old people barely able to walk , can't hear or see very well, Probably need help using the toilet...probably can't wipe their own ass. A burden on their family. NO Way! how selfish.

Wait till you get to that age. You will want to stay alive unless you are in the less than one percent minority and kill yourself.

[Donnie Brasco]

There are two kind of farangs. The first look down on and constantly bash the mai pen rai attitude. The second kind of adopted the attitude and live accordingly. Believe me the latter group is far more happier. I strongly recommend you join the second group!

Must one really choose between adopting the Mai pen rai attitude and having the odd "go" at the locals from time to time when stoopidity reaches critical mass ?

I am reminded of a response made to me by a rather highly placed Thai gentleman a few years ago.

We'd grown to respect one another, mainly, I suspect, because neither of us were young enough to wish to dominate the other and also because neither of us needed anything from the other.

I digress. Sorry mods.

But I asked my Thai friend if he was RED or Yellow. He paused and after some reflection, he smiled and admitted that he was probably both.

"Both, Khun Donnie," he said. "I am a businessman and I have responsibilities. So . . . . Yes. . . . . Both"

Couldn't help but admire him for his appreciation of the power he had over "the situation".

So, both.

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app