Thai PM Yingluck Shinawatra offers to cancel election

[ChrisY1]

Suthep now realizes the court ruling places him in an awkward position. He is already backing down from his threat to block the election!

He's been going now for over 2 months....he's been speaking every evening.....so far he's been relentless for the cause....

Whilst the Farang both on TV and generally tend to think he's gone nuts.....I don't think so at all......

He doesn't care that the elections can now be postponed....he is still pursuing the removal of the Shinawatra clan from Thai politics.....and I have to say that I agree with his cause.

[rreddin]

In some way this is to save the DP and help it survive...There is a constitution provision that states boycotting an election twice, will eliminate any given political Party.....Now the EC and PAD-Dem user-friendly courts are trying to save the Party...To their surprise, the street stuff has been unable to dislodge Ms. Y....so they need to do something....It is my understanding though, that the PTP is advising its' candidates, "Full speed ahead"....It is all a game, and who knows the reality at this point.....I don't think the coup-mongers will accept this anyway...It just emasculates them for the inevitable election a short time from now, and Suthep with his co-leaders will be under immediate law enforcement pressure.

A good point about the DP. However, do not take the prime Minister and her government for fools. They are anything but. They have allowed Suthep to become more and more extreme in his demands and the point has long been passsed where it became clear that he, and his backers, want to end democracy in Thailand. Slowly, the "educated" mob he duped are coming to realize that they will also be among the losers if Suthep's goals are achieved. The educated masses are the easiest to dupe and the slowest to realize it.

The coup mongers would do well to realize what the army already understands. That is putting tanks in Bangkok could rapidly turn Thailand into a federation of largely autonomous states with the King as head of state. Far fetched? Political leaders in Isaan announced something along these lines when the Chief of Staff was ambiguous about making a coup. The former Lanna Kingdom has been cited as a viable autonomous region and the provinces comprising the former Sultanate of Pattini have been fighting (literally) for this for themselves. Naturally, they would want the taxes they pay, and they do pay taxes, to be spent in their region and not in subsidising Bangkok.

[Loles]

" BANGKOK: -- Thailand’s embattled government has offered to call off an election set for February 2 if protesters end their rallies and promise not to obstruct or boycott a new one within months. "

How much dilettant amateur is she ?

And what about Santa Claus and other fairy tails?

[GazR]

"Thailands embattled government has offered to call off an election set for February 2 if protesters end their rallies and promise not to obstruct or boycott a new one within months."

Do they really think this is what the protestors want? How will this meet their demands for reform? Clueless.

Regardless of how we got to this point and who's to blame the elite on both sides have to stop this madness one way or another.

Yingluck has agreed to resign and leave politics forever if her families safety is guaranteed and if there will be a normal run of the mill election. Currently Suthep and the PDRC have refused to completely okay this offer, however they haven't flat out refused it either.

This action symbolically removes Thaksin's influence from Thai politics despite the reality where he retains control of the PTP, this also allows Suthep to declare victory over Shincorp giving both sides the opportunity to save face. The democrats can champion the fact they removed a corrupt PM through non-violent means using people power something previously completely alien to them.

The farmers are angry, the government has cost people from the top to the bottom of society billions of baht by enacting the state of emergency then doing nothing with it and the Red shirts feel shunned after being left out of the recent political conflict only renewing the growing divide between the PTP and the Red shirts that existed before the Amnesty bill farce.

If Suthep keeps himself out of the spotlight (which is highly unlikely considering his planet sized ego) during a potential election campaign the Democrats may actually have a chance of winning if they take the moral high road now and promise a reform council to truly tackle corruption.

"Yingluck has agreed to resign and leave politics forever if her families (sic) safety is guaranteed and if there will be a normal runof the mill election."

Source ??

[Boxclever]

Thai PM Yingluck Shinawatra offers to cancel election

That won't be her decision...

Are the little kiddie smiley faces to remind us that you're trying to be funny?

[LadPhrao123]

People will be counting on it. If Suthep is seen intimidating voters going to the polling station then more support will be drained from the moderates in his group.

But he has to, because short of massive civil disobedience, his protest is done.

Civil disobedience will help legitimise the intervention by the army to restore order and bring an end to the disruption.

But when he does this, he helps portray Yingluck as the voice of moderation.

Which brings more people to support her calls for unification and compromise.

Which totally undermines the popular legitimacy claims of the protest.

Which in turn totally undermines any attempt by the army to intervene on behalf of the thai people.

Good analysis.

Sounds like a duck in a bottle to me.

Hope I'm invited to see him served as "Duck under Glass" at Yingluck's re-election celebration.

Revenge is a dish best served cold...

[waza]

Yingluck has been shown to be a liar again when she claimed the constitution wouldn't allow a postponement of the election. Thaksin has been shown to be a liar again when he said Yingluck cant resign. Why should anyone believe they have any honest intentions of honouring their offer, with barbs attached, to postpone the Feb 2 election? There must be some selfish reason why they would even consider it.

Either they have a nefarious machination in play to pay the farmers off or they don't believe they cant hold on to government til May 10th, if a valid election is held. But you can bet your sweet ass that the plan is for the PTP or another Thaksin party to win the next election and push the blanket amnesty through to absolve them of all rice corruption charges and bring Thaksin home.

For Thaksin's PTP have never been about helping the rural workers, the poor and downtrodden or Thailand as a whole. They have always been about Thaksin, self enrichment and amnesty for their crimes. The cabinet of millionaire are now the cabinet of billionaires and the new ruling elite.

Edited January 25, 2014 by waza

[ginjag]

yes, to be fair, you have never supported Suthep

my point is - if there is a 3 month delay both sides have that time to put their arguments to the populace - then let the people decide do they want a PTP government or the Un-Dems/elites in power OR a Suthep led People's Fascist Council Party

lay it all out - debate and argue - then vote

In respect to your comment about a 3 month delay, such a lengthy delay would leave the country gripped in chaos as the government would be unable to govern, and the financial markets would start to panic. I there is a lengthy delay, we may see the business community rally to the PTP. Given a choice of losing their money or having the PTP around, wealthy Thais will choose their money.

The 3 month delay would be acceptable to all-UNLESS the PM has something to hide.

Her comment was OK--BUT you have to do this and have to that first. no way madam. What the PTP are afraid of if any worms come out of the woodwork within 3 months they would have to say bye bye. Their only chance to fulfill their aims is to get the election over with quick.

No one should be afraid of the truth, so why the big hurry ?? I wonder.

Talking about losing money- the PTP are not losing money they are not able to accrue that's the problem, they had planned on 4 years minimum.

[kikoman]

People will be counting on it. If Suthep is seen intimidating voters going to the polling station then more support will be drained from the moderates in his group.

But he has to, because short of massive civil disobedience, his protest is done.

Civil disobedience will help legitimise the intervention by the army to restore order and bring an end to the disruption.

But when he does this, he helps portray Yingluck as the voice of moderation.

Which brings more people to support her calls for unification and compromise.

Which totally undermines the popular legitimacy claims of the protest.

Which in turn totally undermines any attempt by the army to intervene on behalf of the thai people.

Good analysis.

Sounds like a duck in a bottle to me.

Hope I'm invited to see him served as "Duck under Glass" at Yingluck's re-election celebration.

Revenge is a dish best served cold...

I hope I would also be invited. to partake of that dish, Revenge serve cold!

Cheers

[LadPhrao123]

Yingluck has been shown to be a liar again when she claimed the constitution wouldn't allow a postponement of the election. Thaksin has been shown to be a liar again when he said Yingluck cant resign. Why should anyone believe they have any honest intentions of honouring their offer, with barbs attached, to postpone the Feb 2 election? There must be some selfish reason why they would even consider it.

Either they have a nefarious machination in play to pay the farmers off or they don't believe they cant hold on to government til May 10th, if a valid election is held. But you can bet your sweet ass that the plan is for the PTP or another Thaksin party to win the next election and push the blanket amnesty through to absolve them of all rice corruption charges and bring Thaksin home.

For Thaksin's PTP have never been about helping the rural workers, the poor and downtrodden or Thailand as a whole. They have always been about Thaksin, self enrichment and amnesty for their crimes. The cabinet of millionaire are now the cabinet of billionaires and the new ruling elite.

Here's hoping your worst nightmare comes true.

PTP / Thaksin party wins the election, an amnesty bill that brings Thaksin back to Thailand, the rice program resolved and bet your sweet whatever your false assumptions and outright lies are exposed for what they are.

[whybother]

Yingluck has agreed to resign and leave politics forever if her families safety is guaranteed and if there will be a normal run of the mill election. Currently Suthep and the PDRC have refused to completely okay this offer, however they haven't flat out refused it either.

When did Yingluck agree to resign and leave politics forever? Did I miss something?

There was an article about it in the Bangkok post about a week ago I will see if I can find it.

There was a side comment from "a source" in the BP article. If there was a genuine offer it would be front page news in all the papers.

Sent from my phone ...

[Thait Spot]

So, it's 14:30 here in the land of limbo and so far the only organ saying this is in Sydney....

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[whybother]

Suthep now realizes the court ruling places him in an awkward position. He is already backing down from his threat to block the election!

His position hasn't changed. Yingluck hasn't resigned.

Sent from my phone ...

[Ozymandias]

"Thailands embattled government has offered to call off an election set for February 2 if protesters end their rallies and promise not to obstruct or boycott a new one within months."

Do they really think this is what the protestors want? How will this meet their demands for reform? Clueless.

Agreed. But to balance this out, could Suthep be any more arrogant when he says it would be better if you don't go out to the polling stations because the PCAD are taking them over. He clearly can't stand the idea of people making their own minds up. And some farang posters on here still praise him. He gets more fascistic by he day.

[Bluespunk]

"Thailands embattled government has offered to call off an election set for February 2 if protesters end their rallies and promise not to obstruct or boycott a new one within months."

Do they really think this is what the protestors want? How will this meet their demands for reform? Clueless.

Agreed. But to balance this out, could Suthep be any more arrogant when he says it would be better if you don't go out to the polling stations because the PCAD are taking them over. He clearly can't stand the idea of people making their own minds up. And some farang posters on here still praise him. He gets more fascistic by he day.

No argument from me there. Edited January 25, 2014 by Bluespunk

[ginjag]

"Thailands embattled government has offered to call off an election set for February 2 if protesters end their rallies and promise not to obstruct or boycott a new one within months."

Do they really think this is what the protestors want? How will this meet their demands for reform? Clueless.

Agreed. But to balance this out, could Suthep be any more arrogant when he says it would be better if you don't go out to the polling stations because the PCAD are taking them over. He clearly can't stand the idea of people making their own minds up. And some farang posters on here still praise him. He gets more fascistic by he day.

I am sure Suthep knows that if he can muster a long enough delay-worms may crawl out the woodwork and expose a cartload of people, then court action, hence the hanging around biding time.

Had the PM resigned and her family vanished earlier, the elections could have been over and done with, even if the PTP had to form another coalition with far less power.

Heads then to roll with pressure to investigate trough members. To my mind it would have been better for the lot to have resigned, and flee the scene, now they are hanging around for WHAT---a trial, do as you would do in an accident flee the scene.

[inutil]

Yingluck has agreed to resign and leave politics forever if her families safety is guaranteed and if there will be a normal run of the mill election. Currently Suthep and the PDRC have refused to completely okay this offer, however they haven't flat out refused it either.

When did Yingluck agree to resign and leave politics forever? Did I miss something?

There was an article about it in the Bangkok post about a week ago I will see if I can find it.

There was a side comment from "a source" in the BP article. If there was a genuine offer it would be front page news in all the papers.

Sent from my phone ...

IM starting to think that the thai public is unfamiliar with the concept of 'briefing'. Maybe it was the blair v brown thing and all the political intrigue, or major vs the bastards, but its pretty standard fare in british politics.

You state something off the record, or you leak it, (but off the record is just as fun). Journalists then join the dots but cant source without losing access. The dots were set up by the brief. The journalists now end up as your attack dogs.

So if i might...

An advisor to the PM suggests that Yingluck would go as long as her safety is guaranteed.

Gullible journalist suggests as much.

Public start saying, 'does she really fear for her childrens safety??? Oh my god! that poor woman, and those evil men bullying and threatening her children!'

Moderates start finding themselves a little torn.

But Thaksin!

But thaksin is clearly running the show! Thatll keep the moderates focused and on side! thats the point after all!

..."That poor woman! All she wants is to fix this through discussion and now she has one side threatening her children and her safety, and the other side using her for their own political aspirations!"

Job done!

And since it was off the record and unconfirmed she never has to even acknowledge it let alone go back on it.

[EricBerg]

‘‘It would be better if you do not go out because you will find we have taken over the polling stations,’’ Mr Suthep told voters.

Once again Suthep is trying to intimidate voters.

Once again Suthep is trying to intimidate voters.

You forgot to add "with his vicious army of thugs".

I have reach my limit on saying thugs for today.

Repeat that without the word "thugs" please.

[LadPhrao123]

"Thailands embattled government has offered to call off an election set for February 2 if protesters end their rallies and promise not to obstruct or boycott a new one within months."

Do they really think this is what the protestors want? How will this meet their demands for reform? Clueless.

Agreed. But to balance this out, could Suthep be any more arrogant when he says it would be better if you don't go out to the polling stations because the PCAD are taking them over. He clearly can't stand the idea of people making their own minds up. And some farang posters on here still praise him. He gets more fascistic by he day.

Protester's do not want reform, they want the Shinawatras removed from politics, wittingly or unwittingly, to weaken the opposition to turning the clock back and usher in a new era of feudal Thailand. Ideas of a democratic Thailand elude them. They accept endemic corruption as a way of Thai life. Thaksin was successful in reducing corruption, benefiting the country and bringing the underclass to the table via the democratic vote, while threatening certain parties and systems known as xxxx.

Calling Suthep arrogant in this is an undeserved blandishment. They intend to do everything they can get away with to intimidate voters at the polls. Try to recall the 'peaceful' protestors blocking government buildings, chaining their entrances, threatening the EC stations and full on fighting with the police over their blocking and attempts to ransack at the stadium.

[patjem]

So lets say Yingluck decides to quit. What then? Has Suthep outlined ANY of his so-called political reforms? I'm firmly of the opinion she should go. Thai politics has terminal cancer and that part needs to be cut out. The problem is ALL of the rest of PT and their allies are afraid to step up the the base. They think Thaksin is PT. Have they lost all sense of reason? Are they as useless as his sister? They can't go on their own, think independently, and run the country? They I wonder why Suthep has so much support, yet, his supporters really do not know what is agenda is. This is too much....I need to take a bex and lie down

Suthep did state in the early days of protests that he wasn't proposing himself as a council member. I agree the council things sounds iffy, but if it was to be a solution, then naturally, the formed council should put forward their proposals at that time.... not proposals coming from Suthep. As I see it, his personal mission before he pops his clogs is to find a way to have Thaksin's influence removed once and for all.

[Tatsujin]

"Thailands embattled government has offered to call off an election set for February 2 if protesters end their rallies and promise not to obstruct or boycott a new one within months."

Do they really think this is what the protestors want? How will this meet their demands for reform? Clueless.

Agreed. But to balance this out, could Suthep be any more arrogant when he says it would be better if you don't go out to the polling stations because the PCAD are taking them over. He clearly can't stand the idea of people making their own minds up. And some farang posters on here still praise him. He gets more fascistic by he day.

Protester's do not want reform, they want the Shinawatras removed from politics, wittingly or unwittingly, to weaken the opposition to turning the clock back and usher in a new era of feudal Thailand. Ideas of a democratic Thailand elude them. They accept endemic corruption as a way of Thai life. Thaksin was successful in reducing corruption, benefiting the country and bringing the underclass to the table via the democratic vote, while threatening certain parties and systems known as xxxx.

Calling Suthep arrogant in this is an undeserved blandishment. They intend to do everything they can get away with to intimidate voters at the polls. Try to recall the 'peaceful' protestors blocking government buildings, chaining their entrances, threatening the EC stations and full on fighting with the police over their blocking and attempts to ransack at the stadium.

Thaksin was successful in reducing corruption ... since when? lol

[waza]

Yingluck has been shown to be a liar again when she claimed the constitution wouldn't allow a postponement of the election. Thaksin has been shown to be a liar again when he said Yingluck cant resign. Why should anyone believe they have any honest intentions of honouring their offer, with barbs attached, to postpone the Feb 2 election? There must be some selfish reason why they would even consider it.

Either they have a nefarious machination in play to pay the farmers off or they don't believe they cant hold on to government til May 10th, if a valid election is held. But you can bet your sweet ass that the plan is for the PTP or another Thaksin party to win the next election and push the blanket amnesty through to absolve them of all rice corruption charges and bring Thaksin home.

For Thaksin's PTP have never been about helping the rural workers, the poor and downtrodden or Thailand as a whole. They have always been about Thaksin, self enrichment and amnesty for their crimes. The cabinet of millionaire are now the cabinet of billionaires and the new ruling elite.

Here's hoping your worst nightmare comes true.

PTP / Thaksin party wins the election, an amnesty bill that brings Thaksin back to Thailand, the rice program resolved and bet your sweet whatever your false assumptions and outright lies are exposed for what they are.

Is that really your best effort? This scenario may be a wet dream for you but its a nightmare for the Thai people who will have to live with the PTP debt legacy and pay it. It will take generations of poor quality of life for the Thai people before the damage of the past Thaksin proxy governments and their pervasive corruption is resolved. For you to rejoice at the anticipation of another Thaksin administration and a further compounding of that damage indicates what a truly despicable out look you have.

[metisdead]

A post in violation of this forum rule has been removed:

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Posts with messed up quotes have been removed as well.

[JRSoul]

Yingluck has been shown to be a liar again when she claimed the constitution wouldn't allow a postponement of the election. Thaksin has been shown to be a liar again when he said Yingluck cant resign. Why should anyone believe they have any honest intentions of honouring their offer, with barbs attached, to postpone the Feb 2 election? There must be some selfish reason why they would even consider it.

Either they have a nefarious machination in play to pay the farmers off or they don't believe they cant hold on to government til May 10th, if a valid election is held. But you can bet your sweet ass that the plan is for the PTP or another Thaksin party to win the next election and push the blanket amnesty through to absolve them of all rice corruption charges and bring Thaksin home.

For Thaksin's PTP have never been about helping the rural workers, the poor and downtrodden or Thailand as a whole. They have always been about Thaksin, self enrichment and amnesty for their crimes. The cabinet of millionaire are now the cabinet of billionaires and the new ruling elite.

Here's hoping your worst nightmare comes true.

PTP / Thaksin party wins the election, an amnesty bill that brings Thaksin back to Thailand, the rice program resolved and bet your sweet whatever your false assumptions and outright lies are exposed for what they are.

"the rice program resolved" and how does that happen pray tell. Are you expecting a world famine where Thailand grows rich on others' suffering?

[LadPhrao123]

Yingluck has been shown to be a liar again when she claimed the constitution wouldn't allow a postponement of the election. Thaksin has been shown to be a liar again when he said Yingluck cant resign. Why should anyone believe they have any honest intentions of honouring their offer, with barbs attached, to postpone the Feb 2 election? There must be some selfish reason why they would even consider it.

Either they have a nefarious machination in play to pay the farmers off or they don't believe they cant hold on to government til May 10th, if a valid election is held. But you can bet your sweet ass that the plan is for the PTP or another Thaksin party to win the next election and push the blanket amnesty through to absolve them of all rice corruption charges and bring Thaksin home.

For Thaksin's PTP have never been about helping the rural workers, the poor and downtrodden or Thailand as a whole. They have always been about Thaksin, self enrichment and amnesty for their crimes. The cabinet of millionaire are now the cabinet of billionaires and the new ruling elite.

Here's hoping your worst nightmare comes true.

PTP / Thaksin party wins the election, an amnesty bill that brings Thaksin back to Thailand, the rice program resolved and bet your sweet whatever your false assumptions and outright lies are exposed for what they are.

Is that really your best effort? This scenario may be a wet dream for you but its a nightmare for the Thai people who will have to live with the PTP debt legacy and pay it. It will take generations of poor quality of life for the Thai people before the damage of the past Thaksin proxy governments and their pervasive corruption is resolved. For you to rejoice at the anticipation of another Thaksin administration and a further compounding of that damage indicates what a truly despicable out look you have.

All that's needed to make yours a completely forgettable post is in your first sentence statement "the Thai people". Grab a flag, wear a pin, mouth patriotism, claim to represent 'the people'. it's a disease of the political right side of politics.

The rest unsupported conjecture on what had been until 90 days ago a vibrant and teflon economy. Fully operative and capable of managing it's challenges.

Thaksin is and was a brilliant and successful businessman. He improved the poor quality of life in Thailand. He might be able to pull the country back after the Dems/PDRC/NSPRT have had their throw at running it to ground. I don't see anyone else in Thailand with those capabilities standing for government.

[pete66]

The rice crisis grows daily. This is YingLuck's biggest problem. Bigger even than the yellow shirt demonstrations. She has made the monumental error of eroding her core support through terrible mismanagement and corruption of her rice "scheme". Her time is running out fast. That is why the Army does not need to step in. She is self-destructing the Thaksin empire all by her sobbing little self.

I have no idea what will follow, but Thailand can only start to heal once the word "Shiniwatra" disappears forever from Thai politics.

And by the way, the title of the thread is wrong - she has offered to "postpone" not "cancel" the election. Not the same thing at all.

Edited January 25, 2014 by pete66

[JRSoul]

All that's needed to make yours a completely forgettable post is in your first sentence statement "the Thai people". Grab a flag, wear a pin, mouth patriotism, claim to represent 'the people'. it's a disease of the political right side of politics.

The rest unsupported conjecture on what had been until 90 days ago a vibrant and teflon economy. Fully operative and capable of managing it's challenges.

Thaksin is and was a brilliant and successful businessman. He improved the poor quality of life in Thailand. He might be able to pull the country back after the Dems/PDRC/NSPRT have had their throw at running it to ground. I don't see anyone else in Thailand with those capabilities standing for government.

Why does a "brilliant and successful businessman" have to resort to rigged bids, monopoly, abuse of position, tax evasion, corruption and insider trading? Why does my dog lick his balls? Because he can.

[LadPhrao123]

Yingluck has been shown to be a liar again when she claimed the constitution wouldn't allow a postponement of the election. Thaksin has been shown to be a liar again when he said Yingluck cant resign. Why should anyone believe they have any honest intentions of honouring their offer, with barbs attached, to postpone the Feb 2 election? There must be some selfish reason why they would even consider it.

Either they have a nefarious machination in play to pay the farmers off or they don't believe they cant hold on to government til May 10th, if a valid election is held. But you can bet your sweet ass that the plan is for the PTP or another Thaksin party to win the next election and push the blanket amnesty through to absolve them of all rice corruption charges and bring Thaksin home.

For Thaksin's PTP have never been about helping the rural workers, the poor and downtrodden or Thailand as a whole. They have always been about Thaksin, self enrichment and amnesty for their crimes. The cabinet of millionaire are now the cabinet of billionaires and the new ruling elite.

Here's hoping your worst nightmare comes true.

PTP / Thaksin party wins the election, an amnesty bill that brings Thaksin back to Thailand, the rice program resolved and bet your sweet whatever your false assumptions and outright lies are exposed for what they are.

"the rice program resolved" and how does that happen pray tell. Are you expecting a world famine where Thailand grows rich on others' suffering?

Personally I would not presume a remedy, but for every problem there is a solution and the government must come up with one or ones. Given the strengths of Thailand's economy I'm sure there is one. Surely it will be easier for them if their hands aren't tied behind their backs.

Further I'm not saying they didn't make errors in judgement that need correction, but no one in charge of a country that expects to be able to continue to rule the country consciously make decisions to undermine their own power and position and bring their ability into question. Graft and corruption which is endemic in Thailand may of gone with the decision but I don't believe the goal was pursuit of corruption at the expense of the country's economy. Which is the short circuited thinking thats a popular brick to throw at the government of Yingluck Shinawatra.

[nickynomates]

One of the best posts of the day.

The rice crisis grows daily. This is YingLuck's biggest problem. Bigger even than the yellow shirt demonstrations. She has made the monumental error of eroding her core support through terrible mismanagement and corruption of her rice "scheme". Her time is running out fast. That is why the Army does not need to step in. She is self-destructing the Thaksin empire all by her sobbing little self.

I have no idea what will follow, but Thailand can only start to heal once the word "Shiniwatra" disappears forever from Thai politics.

And by the way, the title of the thread is wrong - she has offered to "postpone" not "cancel" the election. Not the same thing at all.

[nong38]

She really does not have much of an option, the election at the moment looks likely to end in disaster.

She and her associates dont seem to have much of an idea what to about the current situation, but, on the other hand if Suthep and friends did get into a position of power albeit temporarily to "fix things" would that be any better option? Thai politics is in a sorry state, no wonder tourists dont come they would not know what to expect, they can only guess and the safe guess is to go somewhere else this year. Dont seem to be many Chinese around either. To the outside world Thailand seems to lurching from one crisis to another with no end in sight.