Divided Thailand set for chaotic election

[webfact]

Divided Thailand set for chaotic election
by Daniel ROOK

BANGKOK, January 30, 2014 (AFP) - Tens of thousands of police will be deployed across Thailand on Sunday for an election seen as a crucial test of the kingdom's fragile democracy, with opposition protesters threatening to lay siege to polling stations.

Experts warn the vote is unlikely to end a long-running cycle of political violence or mollify opponents of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra who fear the polls will only prolong her billionaire family's hold on power.

At least 10 people have been killed and hundreds injured in clashes, grenade attacks and drive-by shootings since mass opposition rallies against her government began three months ago.

"Thailand seems to be in a perpetual state of conflict right now and I don't see any end in sight," said Sunai Phasuk, a senior researcher with New York-based Human Rights Watch.

The elite-backed opposition Democrat Party -- which has not won an elected majority in around two decades -- is boycotting the vote, tilting the odds toward another victory by Yingluck's party but reinforcing questions about whether the new parliament will have enough members to sit.

Protesters, who have occupied key intersections of Bangkok, are demanding Yingluck's elected government step down to make way for an unelected "people's council" that would oversee loosely defined reforms to tackle corruption and alleged vote-buying.

Yingluck's opponents say she is a puppet for her elder brother Thaksin Shinawatra, a controversial former prime minister who was ousted by the military in 2006 and lives in Dubai to avoid a prison term for graft.

The protests were initially triggered by a failed amnesty bill that could have allowed Thaksin to return without going to jail.

'Political limbo' looms
Fifty-three parties are taking part in Sunday's election, hoping to fill the void left by the Democrats, although there has been little sign of campaigning in the capital apart from a few defaced election posters.

Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban, an opposition heavyweight, has urged supporters to do their utmost to prevent the polls taking place, raising fears of further violence.

His bold threat comes despite a 60-day state of emergency imposed in the capital and surrounding areas that gives authorities extra security powers.

Even if voters manage to cast their ballots, election officials warn that the poll result may not be known for months because of problems caused by the protests.

Disruption by demonstrators to candidate registrations means that if Yingluck wins she will remain in a caretaker role with limited power over government policy until by-elections are held to ensure there are enough MPs to convene parliament.

Thailand faces a "legal and political limbo that never happened before", warned Sunai.

"It's no longer necessary to have tanks on the street to remove one side of the political divide from the scene," he said. "Without a parliament there can be no elected government."

Advance voting in parts of the country, including Bangkok, on January 26 was marred by blockades by opposition protesters who stopped hundreds of thousands of people from casting ballots.

On Sunday 129,000 police will be deployed to protect ballot boxes and guard more than 93,500 polling stations, said deputy national police spokesman Anucha Romyanan.

'Elite clash of interests'
The backdrop to the protests is a years-long political struggle pitting the kingdom's royalist establishment -- backed by the courts and the military -- against Thaksin, a billionaire tycoon-turned-politician.

The dispute comes at a time of national anxiety about the health of 86-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej, and about who will be running the country when the revered but ailing monarch's more than six-decade reign comes to an end.

"You have in Thailand an elite clash of interests," said Paul Chambers, director of research at the Institute of Southeast Asian Affairs at Chiang Mai University in northern Thailand.

Thaksin and his allies rely on support among the rural poor to win elections, he said.

"On the other hand the royalists have the military and the judiciary. It's a never-ending struggle," Chambers said.

Pro-Thaksin parties have won every election since 2001, most recently with a landslide victory under Yingluck two years ago.

In addition to the 2006 coup, two pro-Thaksin premiers were forced from office in 2008 by the courts, angering the ousted leader's "Red Shirt" supporters who have vowed to rise up if another elected government is removed by the army or the judiciary.

When the Red Shirts took to the streets in 2010 demanding new elections, more than 90 people died and nearly 1,900 people were wounded in street clashes and a military crackdown under the previous government.


-- (c) Copyright AFP 2014-01-30

[gemini81]

There'll be a lot of protests up & down Sukhumvit and particularly Asok I was warned, by an MP we know- so everybody be careful- maybe Sunday is a good day to stay home if you can.

[thesetat2013]

129000 police and 93500 polling stations. So about 1.3 policemen for every polling station. I think Suthep is going to succeed in his blockade and if this is the case in the PTP controlled areas then there is going to be a lot of fighting

Sent from my GT-S5310 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[dtarasin]

53 parties. 53! And the protesters want to prevent all these from participating jus to get rid of ONE party. How many people support the other 52? If there is ever an election again, these protesters have pretty much guaranteed that their party will never win.

[Lingba]

CHAOS!...yeah baby bring it on! this is better action than the World Wrestling Assoc...

If the people ...the true people of this country truly want legitamate reform...then stop blindlessly following idiots like the Shinawatras and Sutthep...They will both lead you to more despair and poverty...If you need a leader than choose real people that are not about corruption...hard to find yes...but stay on that course

[pipkins]

129000 police and 93500 polling stations. So about 1.3 policemen for every polling station. I think Suthep is going to succeed in his blockade and if this is the case in the PTP controlled areas then there is going to be a lot of fighting

Sent from my GT-S5310 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

looking at how few shut down stations last week (it was a mobille mob and complicit EC) it looks like one PDRC Protester to every 300 stations!!!! Be no trouble in 66 provinces. Only Bangkok ... The South have rolled over so no problems there as nobody want to vote.... We are told!!!

The article hit the nail on the head with the Army and Courts, so zero chance of Suthep staying in power or being able to do anything with Thailand on the world stage. Forget the 3-6 months. This will be years in the unravelling if they were to coup this time.

Meanwhile, many papers do not support the PDRC and lots of action on line against them.

[thesetat2013]

129000 police and 93500 polling stations. So about 1.3 policemen for every polling station. I think Suthep is going to succeed in his blockade and if this is the case in the PTP controlled areas then there is going to be a lot of fighting

Sent from my GT-S5310 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

looking at how few shut down stations last week (it was a mobille mob and complicit EC) it looks like one PDRC Protester to every 300 stations!!!! Be no trouble in 66 provinces. Only Bangkok ... The South have rolled over so no problems there as nobody want to vote.... We are told!!!

The article hit the nail on the head with the Army and Courts, so zero chance of Suthep staying in power or being able to do anything with Thailand on the world stage. Forget the 3-6 months. This will be years in the unravelling if they were to coup this time.

Meanwhile, many papers do not support the PDRC and lots of action on line against them.

Actually the south still has the post blocked so noone will have a ballot to vote with.

Your nice cartoon is from a PTP controlled newspaper and is only 1 newspaper. This does not constitute MANY. :-(

Personally i try to remain neutral in this mess as I am only a guest to Thailand. I am only looking at the Numbers in the article. Which may have No meaning since most reports containing figures in Thailand seem to be drawn from a fortune teller and is ever changing. :-):-):-)

Sent from my GT-S5310 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[dddave]

A larger and louder crowd at Asok last night than previously this week. Lots of whistle blowing and cheering the televised speeches on the big screen. Meanwhile, 100 yards away, life goes on in Soi Cowboy as if nothing was happening.

[kurtgruen]

I think, the biggest confusion, fear and agitation will come from Chinese New Year celebrations. Everyone is gonna' jump, every time a firecracker goes off.

Shitty time to have this election, but of course, that is how Mr. T and Lil Miss Noluck have planned it..

On top of that, she totally screwed up the Chinese New Year celebration, by calling an election on one of those days. Now people are not even allowed to sit in a bar or club and drink alcohol.

Then, there are the businesses, who will suffer even more now. Is there no end to this woman's stupidity?

[mimithewoof]

'Personally i try to remain neutral in this mess as I am only a guest to Thailand. I am only looking at the Numbers in the article'

Please,please, Thesetat2013, enough with the 'guest' comments - whatever our perceived status here, I truly believe that most of us care deeply about the effect on everyday Thai people of this appalling situation. You're just using the word as an excuse not to be human and involved, at least in your mind.

[bigbamboo]

I think, the biggest confusion, fear and agitation will come from Chinese New Year celebrations. Everyone is gonna' jump, every time a firecracker goes off.

Shitty time to have this election, but of course, that is how Mr. T and Lil Miss Noluck have planned it..

On top of that, she totally screwed up the Chinese New Year celebration, by calling an election on one of those days. Now people are not even allowed to sit in a bar or club and drink alcohol.

Then, there are the businesses, who will suffer even more now. Is there no end to this woman's stupidity?

I'm glad someone else has pointed out what a strange time for Thai Chinese family run government to call an election.

However it's unfair to blame Ms. Y as she didn't make the decision anyway.

[thesetat2013]

'Personally i try to remain neutral in this mess as I am only a guest to Thailand. I am only looking at the Numbers in the article'

Please,please, Thesetat2013, enough with the 'guest' comments - whatever our perceived status here, I truly believe that most of us care deeply about the effect on everyday Thai people of this appalling situation. You're just using the word as an excuse not to be human and involved, at least in your mind.

Actually it is you who needs to rethink your position if you are a foreigner. You are not thai so you will never be more than a guest to thailand. Even if its for 20 years.

As for my feelings, you could not fathom that. I have a family here and this chaos affects my life daily. You should stick to the topic which was about the numbers of police ready to protect the voting booths.

Sent from my GT-S5310 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[animatic]

No matter if you are retried here, a guest worker or employer/owner of 49% of a company,

what the current Thai government and it's opposition does will affect you. No question about that.

So why not say your piece clearly, but not on a stage at a rally.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion here, just not a vote.

But many of those opinions are also married to a voter.

Edited January 30, 2014 by animatic

[Scamper]

" It's no longer necessary to have tanks on the street to remove one side of the political divide from the scene," he said. Without a parliament there can be no elected government. "

That's it in a nutshell. But if it's true as intimated in this article that the counting of the vote may actually take months to settle because of all the complications attendant to the vote itself - it points to an unprecedented limbo, where - as always - Pheu Thai will be at the forefront of pushing forward whatever it thinks it will be empowered to do.

[RubbaJohnny]

No governemnt authorised to pay commitments bodes ill for a return to the status quo ante.

Elections,courts,senate challenges are all human made constructs.

Rice ,fisheries,rubber and valubale tourism other primary industries rely on the elements and calendar which no man can alter.

The lost tourist revenue and income for this year is lost forever.Many farms will be ruined by loss of income and fall into the hands of moneylenders forever.

Sadly as somene married and here for the duration I foresee it will get worse before it gets better.All this against a broader background where ASEAN neighours prepare for integration and Fed tapering,marine disputes and better IT security and education,flood prevention,encouraging inward investment should be priorities.

I thank this forum where a disenfranchised taxpayer can exchange views with members of all opinions and from all regions ,background respectfully.

Keep safe the kingdom needs to be in tip top condition for the big shock.

[rubl]

There'll be a lot of protests up & down Sukhumvit and particularly Asok I was warned, by an MP we know- so everybody be careful- maybe Sunday is a good day to stay home if you can.

I've got a polling station to the left and to the right of where I live in Bangkok. Should I stay home

[fab4]

129000 police and 93500 polling stations. So about 1.3 policemen for every polling station. I think Suthep is going to succeed in his blockade and if this is the case in the PTP controlled areas then there is going to be a lot of fighting

Sent from my GT-S5310 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

"129000 police and 93500 polling stations. So about 1.3 policemen for every polling station. I think Suthep is going to succeed in his blockade"

Really? Being generous you'd be lucky to get 1 anti government protester per polling station and good luck with that............

[fab4]

I think, the biggest confusion, fear and agitation will come from Chinese New Year celebrations. Everyone is gonna' jump, every time a firecracker goes off.

Shitty time to have this election, but of course, that is how Mr. T and Lil Miss Noluck have planned it..

On top of that, she totally screwed up the Chinese New Year celebration, by calling an election on one of those days. Now people are not even allowed to sit in a bar or club and drink alcohol.

Then, there are the businesses, who will suffer even more now. Is there no end to this woman's stupidity?

The timing of the election is down to the constitution. stipulating the timescale necessary between dissolution of parliament and a new election being called. Of course the dissolution happened when it did because "the masses" demanded it.

So if anyone is stupid, it is suthep and co.(not that many people need confirmation of that fact).

[coma]

I fear violence will be more prevalent this Sunday than anything seen for a long time here in Thailand. And may quite be the catalyst for something much much bigger in the days and weeks thereafter.

[marcusd]

53 parties. 53! And the protesters want to prevent all these from participating jus to get rid of ONE party. How many people support the other 52? If there is ever an election again, these protesters have pretty much guaranteed that their party will never win.

53 supporting 1 filthy rich would be dictator. I hope this country at the top folds so they learn and stop thinking they are so special

Sent from my RM-892_apac_laos_thailand_219 using Tapatalk

[tezzainoz]

For those that think its over

Thai wife and her friends are home from the protest

The Taskin backers will say they are giving up

Far from it

there is my Thai wife and 5 friend both male and female

She is already making plans to return on Saturday afternoon, but this time there are 18 of the returning for the elections

If you think it all over

Pandoras box has been open

get ready for the Thai people so split into two sides

they are committed to protest to stop the election

Te red shirts want the capital in Chaing Mai

I am all for this, then the wife can come home to make dinner

[tezzainoz]

For those that think its over

My Thai wife and her friends are home from the protest

The Taskin backers will say they are giving up !!!!!

Far from it

there is my Thai wife and 5 friend both male and female returning

They are already making plans to return on Saturday afternoon, but this time there are at this time 18 of them returning for the elections

If you think it all over, ha ha

Pandoras box has been opened

get ready for the Thai people to split into two sides

they are all committed to protest to stop the election

At this point in time only the military can stop a civil war, Yingluck has been told she must do or die

The red shirts want the capital in Chaing Mai

I am all for this, then the wife can come home to make dinner

[soalbundy]

53 parties. 53! And the protesters want to prevent all these from participating jus to get rid of ONE party. How many people support the other 52? If there is ever an election again, these protesters have pretty much guaranteed that their party will never win.

53 supporting 1 filthy rich would be dictator. I hope this country at the top folds so they learn and stop thinking they are so special

Sent from my RM-892_apac_laos_thailand_219 using Tapatalk

The only things that fold here are banknotes

[dinooz]

I think, the biggest confusion, fear and agitation will come from Chinese New Year celebrations. Everyone is gonna' jump, every time a firecracker goes off.

Shitty time to have this election, but of course, that is how Mr. T and Lil Miss Noluck have planned it..

On top of that, she totally screwed up the Chinese New Year celebration, by calling an election on one of those days. Now people are not even allowed to sit in a bar or club and drink alcohol.

Then, there are the businesses, who will suffer even more now. Is there no end to this woman's stupidity?

The timing of the election is down to the constitution. stipulating the timescale necessary between dissolution of parliament and a new election being called. Of course the dissolution happened when it did because "the masses" demanded it.

So if anyone is stupid, it is suthep and co.(not that many people need confirmation of that fact).

The timing of the election was entirely up to PTP,Suthep's demand was and still is for Yingluck to take responsibilty for her Govts actions and failures and step down.

[sawadee1947]

..it's a brilliant description of today situation....There will be no real winner, even there is no doubt, that Yingluck will win the election. What is the most worse case: a PM who is ruling the country just to develop or a royalist who will build high walls around the country?

In my opinion Thaksin and his sister are the most important people to develop this country. health sustem and water management are only two issues,,,,,

[tingtongteesood]

129000 police and 93500 polling stations. So about 1.3 policemen for every polling station. I think Suthep is going to succeed in his blockade and if this is the case in the PTP controlled areas then there is going to be a lot of fighting

Sent from my GT-S5310 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

looking at how few shut down stations last week (it was a mobille mob and complicit EC) it looks like one PDRC Protester to every 300 stations!!!! Be no trouble in 66 provinces. Only Bangkok ... The South have rolled over so no problems there as nobody want to vote.... We are told!!!

The article hit the nail on the head with the Army and Courts, so zero chance of Suthep staying in power or being able to do anything with Thailand on the world stage. Forget the 3-6 months. This will be years in the unravelling if they were to coup this time.

Meanwhile, many papers do not support the PDRC and lots of action on line against them.

Rather than your usual trying to downplay the number of protestors which is much more than you want to think there are, why not tell us of all the glorious things your beloved fugitive in Dubai and PT have done over the last 2 years and inform us why people should vote for them ? I would love to hear it....

[tingtongteesood]

53 parties. 53! And the protesters want to prevent all these from participating jus to get rid of ONE party. How many people support the other 52? If there is ever an election again, these protesters have pretty much guaranteed that their party will never win.

Well, the candidate himself from each of those parties and his immediate family of course and maybe some extended family and maybe a friend or 2 so let's be generous and say about 20 people per candidate per party. Outside of that the rest will be for the fugitive's criminal party or a no vote or just don't bother going out....

[animatic]

There'll be a lot of protests up & down Sukhumvit and particularly Asok I was warned, by an MP we know- so everybody be careful- maybe Sunday is a good day to stay home if you can.

I've got a polling station to the left and to the right of where I live in Bangkok. Should I stay home

Fly like the wind young Rubi, and don't leave irreplaceable papers at home when you do...

[fab4]

I think, the biggest confusion, fear and agitation will come from Chinese New Year celebrations. Everyone is gonna' jump, every time a firecracker goes off.

Shitty time to have this election, but of course, that is how Mr. T and Lil Miss Noluck have planned it..

On top of that, she totally screwed up the Chinese New Year celebration, by calling an election on one of those days. Now people are not even allowed to sit in a bar or club and drink alcohol.

Then, there are the businesses, who will suffer even more now. Is there no end to this woman's stupidity?

The timing of the election is down to the constitution. stipulating the timescale necessary between dissolution of parliament and a new election being called. Of course the dissolution happened when it did because "the masses" demanded it.

So if anyone is stupid, it is suthep and co.(not that many people need confirmation of that fact).

The timing of the election was entirely up to PTP,Suthep's demand was and still is for Yingluck to take responsibilty for her Govts actions and failures and step down.

If you say so, how could I dispute your logical persuasive argument, even if I cared .

Edited January 30, 2014 by fab4

[Spartakos]

Looks like the Father of the nation loved by most should interfere to calm things down, I see no one else able to do this.