Sound of ticking time bombs is getting louder for Yingluck

[webfact]

OVERDRIVE
Sound of ticking time bombs is getting louder for Yingluck
Thanong Khanthong

BANGKOK: -- That Thailand will get an interim government is now inevitable. The tenure of Yingluck Shinawatra's caretaker administration will end unceremoniously on April 1.

Constitutionally speaking, it cannot last beyond that deadline. Let me explain:

The February 2 election will fail to create a new government. The Constitution requires that a new Parliament be convened not more than 30 days after the general election. But it is clear that the Election Commission will not be able to certify the outcome of the election, marred as it was by legal violations and missing results. The election saw a turnout of 46 per cent amid disruptions at the polls, a widespread boycott, invalid and "vote no" ballots. The ruling Pheu Thai Party is believed to have mustered about 8 million votes - a far cry from its peak of 15-16 million. Support for the Democrat Party traditionally ranges between 12 million and 14 million votes. As a result, there won't be the 95 per cent of elected MPs needed to convene the first session of Parliament by March 1. Only the Senate will be able to convene its parliamentary session on that date, while not a single MP will be present in the House of Representatives.

Next, the Constitution requires that within 30 days of the first parliamentary session, the House of Representatives must vote in a new prime minister so that he or she can then form a Cabinet. This means that the deadline to vote in the new prime minister is April 1. If that deadline is not met, the Yingluck administration will automatically lose its caretaker status. At that point, we will be at the end of the road. Thailand will immediately plunge into a power vacuum because of the absence of a legal government.

In that case, as stated in Article 3 of the Constitution, the sovereign power temporarily entrusted to the government via the electoral process will be handed back to the people. And since a country cannot function without a government, a new prime minister can be appointed to form an interim government via Article 7 of the Constitution. The president of the Senate will forward the name of the candidate to serve as Thailand's next prime minister to His Majesty the King for royal endorsement.

April 1 is still a long way off. The Suthep Thaugsuban-led Occupy Bangkok Movement has been placing pressure on Yingluck Shinawatra to resign as caretaker premier, but to no avail. Yingluck has only two choices on the table: either she voluntarily resigns now to pave the way for the formation of an interim government, or she drags her feet until April 1 when her caretaker status expires.

The first course of action will smooth the transition to the interim government, which should lay down important structural reforms to strengthen Thailand's competitiveness in the long run. But we all know that Yingluck and her backer, Thaksin Shinawatra, will not let go of political power easily. So Yingluck is more likely to hang on beyond April 1 by arguing that the caretaker government will only go after the new government steps in. But time is not on her side. Along the way, there are several time bombs.

The most serious threat to Yingluck's caretaker status is farmers' anger. The farmers have been cheated of the money owed to them by the government under the rice-pledging scheme. They could now revolt, because there is no way the government can come up with Bt130 billion to pay them, given the scheme's rampant corruption and the complete failure to secure the proceeds from rice sales. The National Anti-Corruption Commission is scheduled to rule on whether the caretaker prime minister was knowingly involved in, or should be held liable for, corruption in the rice-pledging scheme. The axe could be about to fall on Yingluck in this case.

It will be interesting to see whether the prime minister can find a way out of the corner she has painted herself into.


-- The Nation 2014-02-07

[TVGerry]

So we have a date now, April 1st!

Keep that private jet ready to fly, Poo. Come April Fool's Day, you'll be the biggest fool with a one way flight to sandy Dubai!

Oh wait, maybe not the biggest fool since Chalerm is there.

[manarak]

who dominates the senate?

[chainarong]

The time bomb has been ticking from day one for Caretaker Prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, with no knowledge of politics ,she held the ideals like her brother, that a country can be run like a company , unfortunately half of the share holders don't want you and that's the difference from a company where everyone say's aye on a vote and never question the CEO , that's why you hardly see in other countries top business men/women in politics, the primary cause of the down fall of the Thai love Thai and the PTP is no knowledge of government , the idea of totalitarian government which Thaskin adored ,like Singapore is okay for Singapore, (3 Million people) not Thailand , ideology has not worked over history and history could repeat itself in Thailand.

[orchidlady]

The senate is due for an election in March.

[speedtripler]

So we have a date now, April 1st!

Keep that private jet ready to fly, Poo. Come April Fool's Day, you'll be the biggest fool with a one way flight to sandy Dubai!

Oh wait, maybe not the biggest fool since Chalerm is there.

she and big bro have got more money than could be spent in several luxurious lifetimes ,even if she is forced to retire on april 1st

it wont be the end of her world anyway

[millwall_fan]

So having let that idiotic thug Suthep have his day in the sun the Ruling Elite will now wheel on the heavy guns of their constitution and their judiciary.

The answer to The Nations -obviously unbiased reporter - is that we need another election which the Dems wont boycott and the mob wont disrupt. Then the people can vote freely, then they can vote for reform minded parties if they so wish.

[Yunla]

I don't think she wanted the job to begin with, it seemed like she was just being dutiful all the time. I feel that in her private moments she will be grateful when its all over. And of course, that is the last thing you want in a PM.

[animatic]

We get the same scenario as 2006.

An expired Caretaker PM who may, like her brother before her, resign as she has expired,

and then step into the seat again a week later, unilaterally saying I am the Prime Minister.

Her brother did this and then flew to the UN to speak calling himself Prime Minister of Thailand.

not interim or caretaker PM. or any legally applicable qualifications of his status.

He could not successfully run the election, his caretaker term expired,

he took the job back without being confirmed by the highest chair,

and acted unilaterally and assuming powers not delgated to him

as if he still had elected status, essentially and usurper of the position.

This set of actions by Thaksin triggered the coup against him in 2006.

His 'legend' every since always ignores his lapsed status at the time of the coup.

A mechanism is now in place for the Senate President to forward a name for

a 2nd interim PM term, which also explains why Thaksin has tried to be able to

control an all elected senate with money politics; he can make sure his choices

get perpetually named in this situation.

Can't allow anyone else to have this power can he?

Edited February 7, 2014 by animatic

[simple1]

who dominates the senate?

A very good point! This is what I do not understand. If Yingluck has to resign she will just be replaced by someone anointed by Thaksin. Unless there are fundamental changes to Thai politics and the accountability of government bureaucracies I cannot see the point of the whole exercise as it will just be business as usual.

Even if the Pheu Thai Party is disbanded and another party created, as was the case with Thai Rak Thai, the Thaksin family and supporters will regain power. Currently seems to me an exercise in futility, am I wrong?

EDIT: As I posted in another topic...

In the context of Thailand this quote from Thatcher is apt.

"There is little hope for democracy if the hearts of men and women in democratic societies cannot be touched by a call to something greater than themselves"

Edited February 7, 2014 by simple1

[animatic]

who dominates the senate?

A very good point! This is what I do not understand. If Yingluck has to resign she will just be replaced by someone anointed by Thaksin. Unless there are fundamental changes to Thai politics and the accountability of government bureaucracies I cannot see the point of the whole exercise as it will just be business as usual.

Even if the Pheu Thai Party is disbanded and another party created, as was the case with Thai Rak Thai, the Thaksin family and supporters will regain power. Currently seems to me an exercise in futility, am I wrong?

The point is he does not YET control the senate.

He failed in his attempt to rewrite the constitution in this regard.

That attempt and the one to give him a pardon and his money back,

is the reason we have the street protest and gridlock.

He over-reached yet again and the pushback started in earnest.

Edited February 7, 2014 by animatic

[Mosha]

April 1st. how appropriate,

[speedtripler]

who dominates the senate?

A very good point! This is what I do not understand. If Yingluck has to resign she will just be replaced by someone anointed by Thaksin. Unless there are fundamental changes to Thai politics and the accountability of government bureaucracies I cannot see the point of the whole exercise as it will just be business as usual.

Even if the Pheu Thai Party is disbanded and another party created, as was the case with Thai Rak Thai, the Thaksin family and supporters will regain power. Currently seems to me an exercise in futility, am I wrong?

no,getting rid of her will achieve nothing

a new thaksin deputee will stand in her place..........

[trogers]

So we have a date now, April 1st!

Keep that private jet ready to fly, Poo. Come April Fool's Day, you'll be the biggest fool with a one way flight to sandy Dubai!

Oh wait, maybe not the biggest fool since Chalerm is there.

she and big bro have got more money than could be spent in several luxurious lifetimes ,even if she is forced to retire on april 1st

it wont be the end of her world anyway

This is where the mind of a Westerner and an Asian differ. We cannot choose where we are born, but we can choose where we will die, and an Asian would most probably wants to die back home and not be a wandering soul in a foreign land.

[jaidam]

We get the same scenario as 2006.

An expired Caretaker PM who may, like her brother before her, resign as she has expired,

and then step into the seat again a week later, unilaterally saying I am the Prime Minister.

Her brother did this and then flew to the UN to speak calling himself Prime Minister of Thailand.

not interim or caretaker PM. or any legally applicable qualifications of his status.

He could not successfully run the election, his caretaker term expired,

he took the job back without being confirmed by the highest chair,

and acted unilaterally and assuming powers not delgated to him

as if he still had elected status, essentially and usurper of the position.

This set of actions by Thaksin triggered the coup against him in 2006.

His 'legend' every since always ignores his lapsed status at the time of the coup.

A mechanism is now in place for the Senate President to forward a name for

a 2nd interim PM term, which also explains why Thaksin has tried to be able to

control an all elected senate with money politics; he can make sure his choices

get perpetually named in this situation.

Can't allow anyone else to have this power can he?

Excellent to read an accurate historical account. It is a rarity these days to see, what with the expensive propaganda and history re-write that Thaksin has purchased. Coup overthrowing a legitimate democratically elected govt bla bla... Well done for seeing through the BS.

[coobah666]

Tick Tick BOOM

[promatrix]

Yingluck is one of the most selfish persons I have ever known.

not really, I would vote for most stupidest person

[MrJohnson]

Yingluck is one of the most selfish persons I have ever known. She and her brother do not give a crap about anything but themselves. They will sacrifice anything to stay in power. That by itself is enough to get them out of office. You might not agree with Suthep's methods, but more and more, I simply don't care how it is done, she and her dog, Chalerm need to be jettisoned to Mars.

I am sick and tired of these wanke_rS turning one of the most beautiful countries into a shithole. If there was a leader who was slightly incompetent, but had character, I'd vote him or her into office in a heartbeat.

Frankly, we do need a mini revolution. We need to get that sour puss, moronic woman out of office. She add NO VALUE whatsoever and she really destroying the Nirvana called Thailand.... what a disgraceful thing to write on your tombstone: "Here lieth Yingluck Shinawatra, the horrible leader who destroyed people's lives, created hate and destruction and sent Thailand back to the Stone Age.....

Sad, really....

Nirvana? Are we talking about the same place.?

[focus27]

Finally, an article that backs up what I've been saying However, I didn't think that the two 30-day periods came in sequence! Surely if the House cannot convene then it also can't wait 30 more days to select a PM!

Also, the 2nd Feb plus 30 days is 4th March (not the 1st, Feb doesn't have 31 days).

Also, these 30-day periods are the maximum time spans. The first one needs to elapse, but the second period could be speeded up.

As I've said for some days, the National Assembly will convene on time but without the House of Reps. The Senate, still behind the mask of the National Assembly can then select a PM and council of Ministers with an emergency decree.

Coup sorted!!

[Publicus]

Negative speculation by the self-indulgent OP.

The OP uses the literary and rhetorical device of the "Parade of Horribles" which allows any writer to stoop to an irresponsible and licentious recklessness by conjuring up from what otherwise are facts, such as dates and a constitution, his own preferred and warped political and constitutional scenario.

There are not only the two constitutional possibilities the OP falsely presents. Central to the matter of forming the next government are the by-elections this month. And there is the election coming next month of the half of the senate that are directly accountable to the electorate, and appointing the other half that are not, a process which this time will get an unprecedented, rigorous scrutiny from an attentive public.

Will Ultraman Suthep allow the Senate elections to proceed? The OP apparently doesn't bother to ask. Will Suthep still be on the loose and on the prowl by the time Senate elections occur next month? The OP doesn't want to think about that.

The OP's Parade of Horribles is indeed the rhetorical device in which the speaker hyperbolically catalogues the potential unpleasant outcomes of a course of events. Thus using the constitution, the OP tries to manipulate a real document into his own Parade of Desirables, which makes it easy to suspect the OP would love little more than to see democracy fail in Thailand.

In short, the OP bombs out in his rank hackings at the keyboard as he laughably looks into his crystal ball to All Fool's Day, which is his day indeed.

[zaphodbeeblebrox]

Thailand, democracy was a good experiment, but can we turn the clock back and return to Constitutional Monarchy? I'm sure everyone would be happier.

[hansnl]

The time bomb has been ticking from day one for Caretaker Prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, with no knowledge of politics ,she held the ideals like her brother, that a country can be run like a company , unfortunately half of the share holders don't want you and that's the difference from a company where everyone say's aye on a vote and never question the CEO , that's why you hardly see in other countries top business men/women in politics, the primary cause of the down fall of the Thai love Thai and the PTP is no knowledge of government , the idea of totalitarian government which Thaskin adored ,like Singapore is okay for Singapore, (3 Million people) not Thailand , ideology has not worked over history and history could repeat itself in Thailand.

The time bomb has not only been ticking for Yingluck, but for the Shinawatra clan and cronies.

If you want to run a country as your personal possession, only a power take over will do the trick.

No way popular measures will do this, specially when there is not enough tax income.

Thaksin knows that with the end of Yingluck's government, it will be the end of the Shinawatra clan.

That is why Yingluck is holding on till the end.

[SaamBaht]

So illegal protests and violent obstruction of polling stations are rewarded in the Land of Smiles? Who'd a thunk it?

Edited February 7, 2014 by SaamBaht

[Jip99]

So illegal protests and violent obstruction of polling stations is rewarded in the Land of Smiles? Who'd a thunk it?

No.

Incompetence, graft, deceit and corruption is being penalised - now, who would have thunk THAT in Thailand.

[focus27]

Thailand, democracy was a good experiment, but can we turn the clock back and return to Constitutional Monarchy? I'm sure everyone would be happier.

This is a constitutional monarchy.

I think you mean return to an absolute monarchy.

I think a huge irony is that even this option cannot be seriously discussed as doing so may result in falling foul of the lese majeste laws.

There are many alternatives, such as having the Senate create laws and the House of Reps review them etc etc. Not worth going into in any detail as we would inevitably have to discuss the monarchy, the crown and... well... we can't. Actually, I'm not sure if Thailand picked up on the idea of The Crown - there is a Crown Property Bureau though.

[whoisyourdaddy]

So having let that idiotic thug Suthep have his day in the sun the Ruling Elite will now wheel on the heavy guns of their constitution and their judiciary.

The answer to The Nations -obviously unbiased reporter - is that we need another election which the Dems wont boycott and the mob wont disrupt. Then the people can vote freely, then they can vote for reform minded parties if they so wish.

Having uneducated,drunk,corrupt,idiotic,lying government naturally is a better choice . Doh

[focus27]

Negative speculation by the self-indulgent OP.

The OP uses the literary and rhetorical device of the "Parade of Horribles" which allows any writer to stoop to an irresponsible and licentious recklessness by conjuring up from what otherwise are facts, such as dates and a constitution, his own preferred and warped political and constitutional scenario.

There are not only the two constitutional possibilities the OP falsely presents. Central to the matter of forming the next government are the by-elections this month. And there is the election coming next month of the half of the senate that are directly accountable to the electorate, and appointing the other half that are not, a process which this time will get an unprecedented, rigorous scrutiny from an attentive public.

Will Ultraman Suthep allow the Senate elections to proceed? The OP apparently doesn't bother to ask. Will Suthep still be on the loose and on the prowl by the time Senate elections occur next month? The OP doesn't want to think about that.

The OP's Parade of Horribles is indeed the rhetorical device in which the speaker hyperbolically catalogues the potential unpleasant outcomes of a course of events. Thus using the constitution, the OP tries to manipulate a real document into his own Parade of Desirables, which makes it easy to suspect the OP would love little more than to see democracy fail in Thailand.

In short, the OP bombs out in his rank hackings at the keyboard as he laughably looks into his crystal ball to All Fool's Day, which is his day indeed.

All very true, but I came to similar conclusions without being promised a trough to sink my snout into - I merely assumed the best case scenario for the least violent judicial coup.

If we look at the other extreme, what scenarios do we get? Will all the by-elections yield results? Will the EC hold them quickly enough? Will the Suthepistas go back home and the leaders arrested?

The caretaker government still has the right to submit emergency decrees. If the PTP can show with mathematical certitude that they will have an absolute majority - whatever happens in the other polls - then, given that a voting quorum is 50% a functioning House only needs that 50% of MPs to be present. That 95% rule is liable to be used over and over again by any disgruntled party. So the government could ask for that section of the constitution to be suspended for a fixed period. How is that going to go down with the constitutional court?

Any other ideas?

[animatic]

Can't help but see Ms. Capt. YingHook and the Crocodile sighted in that Thailand park...

Ms. watch were you visit up country.

Edited February 7, 2014 by animatic

[Blackmirage2013]

Yingluck is one of the most selfish persons I have ever known. She and her brother do not give a crap about anything but themselves. They will sacrifice anything to stay in power. That by itself is enough to get them out of office. You might not agree with Suthep's methods, but more and more, I simply don't care how it is done, she and her dog, Chalerm need to be jettisoned to Mars.

I am sick and tired of these wanke_rS turning one of the most beautiful countries into a shithole. If there was a leader who was slightly incompetent, but had character, I'd vote him or her into office in a heartbeat.

Frankly, we do need a mini revolution. We need to get that sour puss, moronic woman out of office. She add NO VALUE whatsoever and she really destroying the Nirvana called Thailand.... what a disgraceful thing to write on your tombstone: "Here lieth Yingluck Shinawatra, the horrible leader who destroyed people's lives, created hate and destruction and sent Thailand back to the Stone Age.....

Sad, really....

Nirvana? Are we talking about the same place.?

Where are you from? Like it here?

[Blackmirage2013]

Okay, some of us actually have work to do, and can't walk around Bangkok with balaclavas directing traffic and disrupting other people's lives!!!