A new day in Ukraine: Political uncertainty sweeps divided nation

[zydeco]

If Putin wants Ukraine back, and let's say he wants it all back including the EU member states in the Baltic. What then?

Well, I suppose the British will write a strong editorial deploring it all. The French will try to figure out an angle where they can get a political advantage out of it. The Germans will occupy Poland in retaliation. And the Swedes will tender a bid for to build a connecting bridge through the newly unified nations.

Edited March 2, 2014 by zydeco

[Chicog]

If Putin wants Ukraine back, and let's say he wants it all back including the EU member states in the Baltic. What then?

Well, I suppose the British will write a strong editorial deploring it all. The French will try to figure out an angle where they can get a political advantage out of it. The Germans will occupy Poland in retaliation. And the Swedes will tender a bid for to build a connecting bridge through the newly unified nations.

The French will surely figure out where they can make money out of it.

[simon43]

With Ukraine opposition trying to move closer to the EU, Russia's occupation of Ukraine was a foregone action. Putin uses Ukraine as a buffer for his western flank. Does anyone really think that he would allow that buffer to side with the perceived enemy/allies of the USA?

Uklraine is a pawn in this - Putin will not give up his buffer zone.

[Scott]

A post which lobbies other posters has been removed.

[Jingthing]

Crimea a river.

I think Ukraine will have to accept that loss.

The question is how much MORE will they have to lose and/or go to war for?

I recently listened to the Ukraine national anthem which talks about the glorious Cossacks.

That was interesting to me personally as my grandparents had to run for their lives from those very same Ukraine Cossacks!

I don't think Russia will invade all of Ukraine but that doesn't mean they don't have strong ways of controlling things anyway. What are the EU and USA really gonna do?

Ironic this is happening right after Putin's propaganda Olympics which they never should have been granted in the first place.

Edited March 2, 2014 by Jingthing

[mackayae]

Where is the Earl of Cardigan when we need him.

[folium]

If Putin wants Ukraine back, and let's say he wants it all back including the EU member states in the Baltic. What then?

Well, I suppose the British will write a strong editorial deploring it all. The French will try to figure out an angle where they can get a political advantage out of it. The Germans will occupy Poland in retaliation. And the Swedes will tender a bid for to build a connecting bridge through the newly unified nations.

The French will surely figure out where they can make money out of it.

They have already...

France has sold 2 Mistral assault carriers (capable of carrying AFVs, marines, 16 hels and UAVs) to Russia with options on 2 more. Not full blown carriers but great force projection platforms. First one launched and operating out of Vladivostock, second due next year to star in the Black Sea Fleet. France has also sold tank TI sights and various other hardware, despite the protests of fellow NATO members.

Meanwhile most of Russia's UAV fleet are actually Israeli in origin and Russian UAV pilots are trained up near Ben Gurion airport.

Commerce often trumps geopolitics.

[folium]

Where is the Earl of Cardigan when we need him.

Rather a sad old man, working part time as a delivery driver and ostracized by his children.

[Chicog]

The French will surely figure out where they can make money out of it.

They have already...

France has sold 2 Mistral assault carriers (capable of carrying AFVs, marines, 16 hels and UAVs) to Russia with options on 2 more. Not full blown carriers but great force projection platforms. First one launched and operating out of Vladivostock, second due next year to star in the Black Sea Fleet. France has also sold tank TI sights and various other hardware, despite the protests of fellow NATO members.

Meanwhile most of Russia's UAV fleet are actually Israeli in origin and Russian UAV pilots are trained up near Ben Gurion airport.

Commerce often trumps geopolitics.

That won't stop them sending a team of salesmen to Kiev though.

[Fasth]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RL_6SVxIRyY
Russian militaries are trying to disarm Ukrainian military base, but ukrainians refuse due to orders from Kyiv.
Russians are threating and leaves.

[nong38]

This could get out of hand very quickly, the Russians have already, according to reports, sent in more forces to the Crimea and have dug themselves in, they claim they are looking after Russian peoples ( well they speak Russian in that area so that was handy) but in the end what it boils down to is this Obama is seen as weak by Putin and Putin likes to play brinkmanship. Its one Russia's doorstep this time but before we have a confrontation on the Cuba scale both sides need to back down, at the moment de-escalation does not seem to be happening from the Russians, the reverse in fact, Putin has an ego so huge for a little man, he might just begin to believe his own propoganda and the US aircarft carriers cannot not get near, well that might just be a blessing, this could end up like being a Thai style conflict of people that should know better.

[Jingthing]

Yes there could be a bigger war but it's clear the west has no appetite for a war with Russia. Putin knows that. If Putin is content with either bringing Crimea into Russia (and Crimea only) or a puppet independent of Ukraine Crimea, perhaps a compromise can be possible.

Edited March 2, 2014 by Jingthing

[Asiantravel]

the state of play

Edited March 2, 2014 by Asiantravel

[Asiantravel]

Ukraine will reportedly run out of money very shortly, so I wonder how long they will be able to keep this up?

Ukraine orders full military mobilisation over Russia moves

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26405635

[whoisyourdaddy]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RL_6SVxIRyY

Russian militaries are trying to disarm Ukrainian military base, but ukrainians refuse due to orders from Kyiv.

Russians are threating and leaves.

What made you think Russian threatened and left?

In conversation, Russian commander advised to unload all weapons.

Ukrainian refused, Russian stated if you do not want to do this peacefully, there is another way and video ends.

PS. They have already(Russians( removed the weapons.

[whoisyourdaddy]

Here is the thing

For starters US should definitely keep its nose right out of it for a number of reasons, which include Iran and Syria as Russia can make things very very difficult for US without even having to lift a finger.

The EU, should be the only ones dealing with it but as usual EU is only talk and run straight to US for help

Ukraine does not stand a chance and should take that into consideration which they clearly are not doing.

A large number of Ukrainian army are Russians, so not exactly your most loyal soldiers.

That part of Ukraine is Russian speaking, again not exactly your loyal crowds.

Russian can and will turn off all oil and gas supplies, Ukraine will freeze to death and rest assured EU will not be paying or supplying as EU heavily relies on Russian oil and gas.

Russia is better equipped, stable and arrogant. Ukraine is a total state of chaos.

[whoisyourdaddy]

Hate to say " i told you so" but here it is

Most Ukrainian troops dispatched in Crimea switch to region’s side

http://rt.com/news/ukraine-military-russia-resign-437/

[Jingthing]

Well, I just read a CNN analysis saying Obama's strongest threat right now would be sanctions. BUT they would likely backfire regarding Russia's role in Syria and Iran, leading to an escalation of a new serious USA- Russia conflict. If the Iran nuclear negotiations did indeed break down due to this, it doesn't take a lot of imagination to come up with bad scenarios resulting from that. Uhg! Basically it does look like Russia can be the big bully in Ukraine and get away with it; what else is new?

[whoisyourdaddy]

Well, I just read a CNN analysis saying Obama's strongest threat right now would be sanctions. BUT they would likely backfire regarding Russia's role in Syria and Iran, leading to an escalation of a new serious USA- Russia conflict. If the Iran nuclear negotiations did indeed break down due to this, it doesn't take a lot of imagination to come up with bad scenarios resulting from that. Uhg! Basically it does look like Russia can be the big bully in Ukraine and get away with it; what else is new?

Russia is no bigger bully than the US.

As i said before, Obama should have kept his mouth shut, he has really put US in a very tight spot with ONLY bad outcome.

Have a look at my previous post, it does have a video and you may find a large number of the country(Ukraine) want to stay with Russia, seems only Kiev and Western Ukraine want to go to EU

[Jingthing]

Right now in Ukraine, RUSSIA is the bully. Period.

Obama is in a fix. It's a good thing he isn't running for anything again or he would probably feel more pressure to escalate this. He'll be attacked domestically no matter how he handles it.

To suggest Obama has been over-aggressive in response up till now is absurd. He hasn't been. Maybe he shouldn't be. Above my pay grade. I am hoping some kind of compromise can be made and yes I think Crimea is going to Russia no matter what, either fully or by other means.

Edited March 2, 2014 by Jingthing

[Fasth]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RL_6SVxIRyY

Russian militaries are trying to disarm Ukrainian military base, but ukrainians refuse due to orders from Kyiv.

Russians are threating and leaves.

What made you think Russian threatened and left?

In conversation, Russian commander advised to unload all weapons.

Ukrainian refused, Russian stated if you do not want to do this peacefully, there is another way and video ends.

PS. They have already(Russians( removed the weapons.

The military man tries to urge you, then you refuse and he says "There is another way...".

You shouldn't be genious to understand his message

And finally they gone, there is a video:

[whoisyourdaddy]

Right now in Ukraine, RUSSIA is the bully. Period.

Obama is in a fix. It's a good thing he isn't running for anything again or he would probably feel more pressure to escalate this. He'll be attacked domestically no matter how he handles it.

To suggest Obama has been over-aggressive in response up till now is absurd. He hasn't been. Maybe he shouldn't be. Above my pay grade. I am hoping some kind of compromise can be made and yes I think Crimea is going to Russia no matter what, either fully or by other means.

Again Russia is not more bully than the US

Just because you like him, it does not make his action right.

May be if you were in the military in the middle east or had family serving, you might have a different opinion.

It will take Putin one phone call , well actually 2, to make Obama's life hell and put all active US military personnel in danger.

It was not US business to make decision who should run Ukraine months ago as US was caught red handed doing just that and it is NOT US business now.

EU wanted Ukraine close, so EU should be putting all the pressure NOT the US

There will be no compromise, because Putin does not compromise and never has.

US can not afford to loose Russian support in the middle east and can not afford to fight yet another war with Iran or Syria.

American people could not care less about Ukraine, hell most of them do not even know where Ukraine is.

Ukraine is no benefit to US in any shape or form

[whoisyourdaddy]

What made you think Russian threatened and left?

In conversation, Russian commander advised to unload all weapons.

Ukrainian refused, Russian stated if you do not want to do this peacefully, there is another way and video ends.

PS. They have already(Russians( removed the weapons.

The military man tries to urge you, then you refuse and he says "There is another way...".

You shouldn't be genious to understand his message

And finally they gone, there is a video:

Leaving was not in your original video.

Since then, they have returned and surrounded the base.

[Jingthing]

I don't agree. The USA and western Europe are strongly linked so Ukraine does matter to the USA. I tend to agree the price for the USA to get involved is probably not worth it. Anyway, above my pay grade.

[whoisyourdaddy]

I don't agree. The USA and western Europe are strongly linked so Ukraine does matter to the USA. I tend to agree the price for the USA to get involved is probably not worth it. Anyway, above my pay grade.

Jing, Western Europe and USA are hardly strongly linked, that link appears ONLY when Western Europe needs US help.

Think back few months when Obama was trying to gain support for strike in Syria, No one from the Western Europe helped.

Think past 20 or so years and again same thing.

Western Europe ran to US, because as i mentioned they rely on Russian Gas and Oil, this is why they are not so vocal, because they run a huge risk of being cut off from both.

So they are using US and Obama fell for it, to voice their opinions dragging US into yet another conflict, sadly.

[Jingthing]

I don't agree. I didn't say the same. Linked. Of course the USA and western Europe share common concerns. That's not the same thing as suggesting the USA should enter in a war with Russia over this. Let's see how this develops. Depending on how Russia behaves, there may indeed be a bigger war and the USA may indeed be part of it. Hopefully not but this is serious.

[StasD]

Nazi from Galizia got power in Ukraine. They like Hitler and Hate Russians, Jews, Poles. there is only one event about them http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia

now police almost stop working, only militant have power

see here

Edited March 2, 2014 by StasD

[F430murci]

Russian militaries are trying to disarm Ukrainian military base, but ukrainians refuse due to orders from Kyiv.

Russians are threating and leaves.

What made you think Russian threatened and left?

In conversation, Russian commander advised to unload all weapons.

Ukrainian refused, Russian stated if you do not want to do this peacefully, there is another way and video ends.

PS. They have already(Russians( removed the weapons.

The military man tries to urge you, then you refuse and he says "There is another way...".

You shouldn't be genious to understand his message

And finally they gone, there is a video:

Where are you guys getting this. That video says nothing even close to what you are saying it says . . . at least according to my Russian wife. To be fair, she did say there was unintelligible jabber at end.

Edited March 2, 2014 by F430murci

[whoisyourdaddy]

Russian militaries are trying to disarm Ukrainian military base, but ukrainians refuse due to orders from Kyiv.

Russians are threating and leaves.

What made you think Russian threatened and left?

In conversation, Russian commander advised to unload all weapons.

Ukrainian refused, Russian stated if you do not want to do this peacefully, there is another way and video ends.

PS. They have already(Russians( removed the weapons.

The military man tries to urge you, then you refuse and he says "There is another way...".

You shouldn't be genious to understand his message

And finally they gone, there is a video:

Where are you guys getting this. That video says nothing even close to what you are saying it says . . . at least according to my Russian wife. To be fair, she did say there was unintelligible jabber at end.

May be because we can speak Russian ?!

[NeverSure]

I will say it again. I believe that Putin strongly wants to bring Ukraine back into the Russian empire. Not just part but all of it.

Putin holds all of the cards. Ukraine is beyond broke. Ukraine could easily be taken by Russia. Ukraine needs gas and oil.

The EU needs gas and oil, and really doesn't want a full-on war with Russia.

The US has little interest in the matter. Only if the EU engaged Russia would the US go to help as usual.

Now what? WWIII over Ukraine? I don't think so.

As usual, I could be wrong, but I still think Putin intends to make all of the Ukraine Russian again.