folium Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 As much as I love the concepts of freedom and democracy and know what a brute Putin is, I fear the extreme right wing Ukrainians more. They have a brutal track record that should send shivers down anyone's back. The Ukrainians have to deal with this issue themselves. While I am not a supporter of Putin, I can understand his concern about having a hostile country on its border. I doubt the EU is ready to put its cheap energy supply at risk and assume a multi billion euro financial burden. Croatia and its Ustashe even made the Nazis blanche with their brutal treatment of Serbs, Jews and other minorities during WW2. Yet today, apart from the Serbs, few people regard the Croats as neo-Nazi monsters. Indeed Ukraine has some nasty right wing extremists as does many of its eastern European neighbours, and Russia is hardly absent extremist nationalistic scum. If there is any hostility from Ukraine towards Russia it is based on historical fact. Putin's main issue is that he cannot stand any part of what he perceives as belonging to the Russian empire being allowed to decide for itself where its future lies. Ukraine hardly poses a threat to Russia, apart from demonstrating the simple fact that its people have had enough of a corrupt, authoritarian kleptocracy. Rather like Putin and his siloviki chums. Heaven forbid the Russian people also decide to upgrade their political leaders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folium Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 As much as I love the concepts of freedom and democracy and know what a brute Putin is, I fear the extreme right wing Ukrainians more. They have a brutal track record that should send shivers down anyone's back. The Ukrainians have to deal with this issue themselves. While I am not a supporter of Putin, I can understand his concern about having a hostile country on its border. I doubt the EU is ready to put its cheap energy supply at risk and assume a multi billion euro financial burden. Reality here. One cannot understand the dynamics in Eastern Europe or the people there from reading a few books or newspaper articles. My wife is Russian and many of our closest friends are Ukranians. Had dinner part with 3 Ukranian couples last week and to hear their take and what I read on here seems world's apart. Candidly, I don't think anyone but someone from that area really gets it. We are just programmed differently and you cannot employ Western logic to try and make sense of it. Interested to hear your take on reality. What was the view expressed by your Ukrainian friends and it would be interesting to know their ethnic and status (ie part of the existing heirarchy or not) background as that would obviously have some bearing on how they view current events in Ukraine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverSure Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'd like to take a wild guess - could be wrong. I think Putin wants the Ukraine to once again be part of Russia. I think he will use military force to get it. The US doesn't care and won't do anything, and the EU is too reliant on Russia for gas and oil to do anything, even if it mattered to them. I think Putin holds all of the cards and will use them. Who else really wants the Ukraine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folium Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'd like to take a wild guess - could be wrong. I think Putin wants the Ukraine to once again be part of Russia. I think he will use military force to get it. The US doesn't care and won't do anything, and the EU is too reliant on Russia for gas and oil to do anything, even if it mattered to them. I think Putin holds all of the cards and will use them. Who else really wants the Ukraine? That's exactly what Putin is banking on. Western indifference/dithering and policy paralysis. The gas argument is not wholly convincing given the mild winter and gas reserves built up, plus the fact that the Russians really need to sell their gas to Europe as China is still playing hardball and Asian markets are yet to be opened up, especially for western gas deposits. On the other hand Ukraine is a country of 46million with a half decent military numbering some 300,000 with potential reservists of 1 million. A far cry from rolling over a Georgia or Hungary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverSure Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'd like to take a wild guess - could be wrong. I think Putin wants the Ukraine to once again be part of Russia. I think he will use military force to get it. The US doesn't care and won't do anything, and the EU is too reliant on Russia for gas and oil to do anything, even if it mattered to them. I think Putin holds all of the cards and will use them. Who else really wants the Ukraine? That's exactly what Putin is banking on. Western indifference/dithering and policy paralysis. The gas argument is not wholly convincing given the mild winter and gas reserves built up, plus the fact that the Russians really need to sell their gas to Europe as China is still playing hardball and Asian markets are yet to be opened up, especially for western gas deposits. On the other hand Ukraine is a country of 46million with a half decent military numbering some 300,000 with potential reservists of 1 million. A far cry from rolling over a Georgia or Hungary. I really don't know how to reply to that. Russia has so much air superiority and the first thing that's done is to gain total control of the air. Then with control of the skies, they would knock out missile defenses and tanks and other hardware. The Ukrainians are not unified. Many are pro-Russia. I can't predict what that would cause, internally. Putin on the other had would have a single mind and purpose. I believe that IF Putin decides to take back Ukraine, he will. I'm guessing, but could be wrong, that he will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folium Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'd like to take a wild guess - could be wrong. I think Putin wants the Ukraine to once again be part of Russia. I think he will use military force to get it. The US doesn't care and won't do anything, and the EU is too reliant on Russia for gas and oil to do anything, even if it mattered to them. I think Putin holds all of the cards and will use them. Who else really wants the Ukraine? That's exactly what Putin is banking on. Western indifference/dithering and policy paralysis. The gas argument is not wholly convincing given the mild winter and gas reserves built up, plus the fact that the Russians really need to sell their gas to Europe as China is still playing hardball and Asian markets are yet to be opened up, especially for western gas deposits. On the other hand Ukraine is a country of 46million with a half decent military numbering some 300,000 with potential reservists of 1 million. A far cry from rolling over a Georgia or Hungary. I really don't know how to reply to that. Russia has so much air superiority and the first thing that's done is to gain total control of the air. Then with control of the skies, they would knock out missile defenses and tanks and other hardware. The Ukrainians are not unified. Many are pro-Russia. I can't predict what that would cause, internally. Putin on the other had would have a single mind and purpose. I believe that IF Putin decides to take back Ukraine, he will. I'm guessing, but could be wrong, that he will. No one expects Ukraine to win a stand up fight with Russia but they might prolong it enough to get international opinion off its backside and make the cost of Russian intervention unacceptably high at least politically, even for Putin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverSure Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'd like to take a wild guess - could be wrong. I think Putin wants the Ukraine to once again be part of Russia. I think he will use military force to get it. The US doesn't care and won't do anything, and the EU is too reliant on Russia for gas and oil to do anything, even if it mattered to them. I think Putin holds all of the cards and will use them. Who else really wants the Ukraine? That's exactly what Putin is banking on. Western indifference/dithering and policy paralysis. The gas argument is not wholly convincing given the mild winter and gas reserves built up, plus the fact that the Russians really need to sell their gas to Europe as China is still playing hardball and Asian markets are yet to be opened up, especially for western gas deposits. On the other hand Ukraine is a country of 46million with a half decent military numbering some 300,000 with potential reservists of 1 million. A far cry from rolling over a Georgia or Hungary. I really don't know how to reply to that. Russia has so much air superiority and the first thing that's done is to gain total control of the air. Then with control of the skies, they would knock out missile defenses and tanks and other hardware. The Ukrainians are not unified. Many are pro-Russia. I can't predict what that would cause, internally. Putin on the other had would have a single mind and purpose. I believe that IF Putin decides to take back Ukraine, he will. I'm guessing, but could be wrong, that he will. No one expects Ukraine to win a stand up fight with Russia but they might prolong it enough to get international opinion off its backside and make the cost of Russian intervention unacceptably high at least politically, even for Putin. You may be right. I don't know. I'm just guessing that Putin wants Ukraine badly enough to take it. Putin wants to rebuild as much of the Soviet Empire as possible. How did international opinion work out for Syria? Putin was the bad guy and wound up looking like the good guy. Hey, I really don't know what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 (edited) I'd like to take a wild guess - could be wrong. I think Putin wants the Ukraine to once again be part of Russia. I think he will use military force to get it. The US doesn't care and won't do anything, and the EU is too reliant on Russia for gas and oil to do anything, even if it mattered to them. I think Putin holds all of the cards and will use them. Who else really wants the Ukraine? That's exactly what Putin is banking on. Western indifference/dithering and policy paralysis. The gas argument is not wholly convincing given the mild winter and gas reserves built up, plus the fact that the Russians really need to sell their gas to Europe as China is still playing hardball and Asian markets are yet to be opened up, especially for western gas deposits. On the other hand Ukraine is a country of 46million with a half decent military numbering some 300,000 with potential reservists of 1 million. A far cry from rolling over a Georgia or Hungary. I really don't know how to reply to that. Russia has so much air superiority and the first thing that's done is to gain total control of the air. Then with control of the skies, they would knock out missile defenses and tanks and other hardware. The Ukrainians are not unified. Many are pro-Russia. I can't predict what that would cause, internally. Putin on the other had would have a single mind and purpose. I believe that IF Putin decides to take back Ukraine, he will. I'm guessing, but could be wrong, that he will. No one expects Ukraine to win a stand up fight with Russia but they might prolong it enough to get international opinion off its backside and make the cost of Russian intervention unacceptably high at least politically, even for Putin. To add to this there is now speculation that the Tartars (15% of the Crimea population) may start a resistance movement if Russia incorporates Crimea. So another issue to mix in the pot that more likely than not would lead to yet more misery for all parties. Kerry is proclaiming it would be a "huge, a grave mistake" for Russia to intervene in Crimea, I assume he is talking to a major step back on regional stabiliity, political & economic relations, not military action by NATO In my opinion a good overview of the lead up and current challenges for the Ukaine at: http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21597974-can-ukraine-find-any-leaders-who-will-live-up-aspirations-its-battered-victorious Edited February 28, 2014 by simple1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folium Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 And the latest chapter from the 2008 South Ossetia/Georgia playbook. Armed men take control of Crimea's 2 civilian airfields. Provocative?.....heaven forbid. Who would want to provoke the authorities in Kiev? http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/02/28/uk-ukraine-idUKBREA1H0EM20140228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folium Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Russian navy ship stands off Balaklava harbour and 150,000 Russian troops take part in short notice exercise near Ukrainian border. Could Putin be sending a message? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26382555 http://rt.com/news/putin-drill-combat-army-864/ But all is well in regard to the military exercise.... “The drills are not connected with events in Ukraine at all,” Sergey Shoigu, Russia’s Defense Minister, told journalists Wednesday. So that's ok then..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverSure Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Russian navy ship stands off Balaklava harbour and 150,000 Russian troops take part in short notice exercise near Ukrainian border. Could Putin be sending a message? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26382555 http://rt.com/news/putin-drill-combat-army-864/ But all is well in regard to the military exercise.... “The drills are not connected with events in Ukraine at all,” Sergey Shoigu, Russia’s Defense Minister, told journalists Wednesday. So that's ok then..... Yeah, nothing to see here. Move along, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pakboong Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'd like to take a wild guess - could be wrong. I think Putin wants the Ukraine to once again be part of Russia. I think he will use military force to get it. The US doesn't care and won't do anything, and the EU is too reliant on Russia for gas and oil to do anything, even if it mattered to them. I think Putin holds all of the cards and will use them. Who else really wants the Ukraine? That's exactly what Putin is banking on. Western indifference/dithering and policy paralysis. The gas argument is not wholly convincing given the mild winter and gas reserves built up, plus the fact that the Russians really need to sell their gas to Europe as China is still playing hardball and Asian markets are yet to be opened up, especially for western gas deposits. On the other hand Ukraine is a country of 46million with a half decent military numbering some 300,000 with potential reservists of 1 million. A far cry from rolling over a Georgia or Hungary. I really don't know how to reply to that. Russia has so much air superiority and the first thing that's done is to gain total control of the air. Then with control of the skies, they would knock out missile defenses and tanks and other hardware. The Ukrainians are not unified. Many are pro-Russia. I can't predict what that would cause, internally. Putin on the other had would have a single mind and purpose. I believe that IF Putin decides to take back Ukraine, he will. I'm guessing, but could be wrong, that he will. No one expects Ukraine to win a stand up fight with Russia but they might prolong it enough to get international opinion off its backside and make the cost of Russian intervention unacceptably high at least politically, even for Putin. Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma – the then-rulers of the USA, UK, Russia and Ukraine - agreed to the The Budapest Memorandum as part of the denuclearization of former Soviet republics after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This treaty is still in effect and could drag the world into WW3. The USA and Britain are treaty bound to protect Ukrain's borders. This is the biggest of the many problems with the current crisis. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html The new guy in the Ukraine is a puppet of the US and the IMF. It is no mere coincidence that he is a former Ukrainian central banker. The big bankers, who in fact all believe they control our world, have a bone to pick with Putin over BRICS and are out to teach him a lesson no matter what it takes. There are hundreds of minor factors and agendas at play but this one over rides them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zydeco Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 (edited) This should not be America's problem. If the Europeans want to do something about, it should be up to them. Not the US. Unfortunately, I see that CNN has already started its propaganda campaign, urging US interference and comparing the situation to the Sudetenland. America needs its own revolution to reverse its own police state policies. Let the Russians be. Let the Ukrainians solve their own problems. And let the Euros pay $20 Mcf for ng if they insist. Edited March 1, 2014 by zydeco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folium Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 (edited) @ Pakboong Amazed you brought up the Budapest Memorandum, given that Russia is already in breach of 3 out of its 4 conditions.Condition 1) "respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty within its borders".... 2014 actuality, naval infantry/marines at the Crimea airfields, BTR 80s in the main square of Sevastopol and on patrol around Simpferol, naval vessel off Balaklava Bay. Breach #1.Condition 2) "protect Ukraine from aggression and not show aggression towards Ukraine".....2014 actuality, see acts of provocative aggression above plus mobilising 150,000 troops at short notice to conduct exercise close to Ukraine border. Breach#2.Condition 3) "not to put economic pressure on Ukraine to influence her politics"......gas supplies from Gazprom (aka Russian state)as an economic weapon to influence Ukrainian politics has been deployed throughout the 1990's since Ukrainian independence and then again in 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2013. All of which revolved around issues such as extending leases on Crimean bases, umbrage re Orange Revolution and finally for having the temerity to prefer a trade deal with the EU rather than a Customs Union with Czar Vlad. Breach# 3. Oh did I mention the arbitrary suspension of trade, jacking up of import tariffs etc, to focus the Ukrainian mind on doing what mummy Russia wants her to do... Breach#3 reduxCondition 4) "not to use nuclear arms against Ukraine".... Hallelujah, one condition of the Budapest Memorandum that Putin has not yet breached....small mercies indeed!And then we have some bizarre diatribe re bankers.The new PM of Ukraine, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, was number 2 and then head of the Central Bank for 15 months. So what? He's a bright and able guy with significant experience in a wide range of posts, appears to have clean hands and the only criticism of him is that some of his rivals see him as being "too Jewish". Perhaps Jewish banker types are the issue, please enlighten us.Jim O'Neill and his amusing BRICS concept, now recast as MINT due to the failure of BRICS to generate decent client returns, underlines that the fact that he was a marketing and self-publicisizing genius at GSAM, but knew diddly squat about actual investing. What has Putin got to do with Brazil, India, China or South Africa? He may have royally shafted investors in Russia but it is a bit harsh to crucify him for the other 4 countries being recent investment graveyards.Exactly what is the point you are trying to make?...... Edited March 1, 2014 by folium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pakboong Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 @ Pakboong Amazed you brought up the Budapest Memorandum, given that Russia is already in breach of 3 out of its 4 conditions. Condition 1) "respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty within its borders".... 2014 actuality, naval infantry/marines at the Crimea airfields, BTR 80s in the main square of Sevastopol and on patrol around Simpferol, naval vessel off Balaklava Bay. Breach #1. Condition 2) "protect Ukraine from aggression and not show aggression towards Ukraine".....2014 actuality, see acts of provocative aggression above plus mobilising 150,000 troops at short notice to conduct exercise close to Ukraine border. Breach#2. Condition 3) "not to put economic pressure on Ukraine to influence her politics"......gas supplies from Gazprom (aka Russian state)as an economic weapon to influence Ukrainian politics has been deployed throughout the 1990's since Ukrainian independence and then again in 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2013. All of which revolved around issues such as extending leases on Crimean bases, umbrage re Orange Revolution and finally for having the temerity to prefer a trade deal with the EU rather than a Customs Union with Czar Vlad. Breach# 3. Oh did I mention the arbitrary suspension of trade, jacking up of import tariffs etc, to focus the Ukrainian mind on doing what mummy Russia wants her to do... Breach#3 redux Condition 4) "not to use nuclear arms against Ukraine".... Hallelujah, one condition of the Budapest Memorandum that Putin has not yet breached....small mercies indeed! And then we have some bizarre diatribe re bankers. The new PM of Ukraine, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, was number 2 and then head of the Central Bank for 15 months. So what? He's a bright and able guy with significant experience in a wide range of posts, appears to have clean hands and the only criticism of him is that some of his rivals see him as being "too Jewish". Perhaps Jewish banker types are the issue, please enlighten us. Jim O'Neill and his amusing BRICS concept, now recast as MINT due to the failure of BRICS to generate decent client returns, underlines that the fact that he was a marketing and self-publicisizing genius at GSAM, but knew diddly squat about actual investing. What has Putin got to do with Brazil, India, China or South Africa? He may have royally shafted investors in Russia but it is a bit harsh to crucify him for the other 4 countries being recent investment graveyards. Exactly what is the point you are trying to make?...... All wars are banker wars and since bankers do not have armies at their disposal, they have to be fought with proxies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folium Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 @ Pakboong Amazed you brought up the Budapest Memorandum, given that Russia is already in breach of 3 out of its 4 conditions. Condition 1) "respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty within its borders".... 2014 actuality, naval infantry/marines at the Crimea airfields, BTR 80s in the main square of Sevastopol and on patrol around Simpferol, naval vessel off Balaklava Bay. Breach #1. Condition 2) "protect Ukraine from aggression and not show aggression towards Ukraine".....2014 actuality, see acts of provocative aggression above plus mobilising 150,000 troops at short notice to conduct exercise close to Ukraine border. Breach#2. Condition 3) "not to put economic pressure on Ukraine to influence her politics"......gas supplies from Gazprom (aka Russian state)as an economic weapon to influence Ukrainian politics has been deployed throughout the 1990's since Ukrainian independence and then again in 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2013. All of which revolved around issues such as extending leases on Crimean bases, umbrage re Orange Revolution and finally for having the temerity to prefer a trade deal with the EU rather than a Customs Union with Czar Vlad. Breach# 3. Oh did I mention the arbitrary suspension of trade, jacking up of import tariffs etc, to focus the Ukrainian mind on doing what mummy Russia wants her to do... Breach#3 redux Condition 4) "not to use nuclear arms against Ukraine".... Hallelujah, one condition of the Budapest Memorandum that Putin has not yet breached....small mercies indeed! And then we have some bizarre diatribe re bankers. The new PM of Ukraine, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, was number 2 and then head of the Central Bank for 15 months. So what? He's a bright and able guy with significant experience in a wide range of posts, appears to have clean hands and the only criticism of him is that some of his rivals see him as being "too Jewish". Perhaps Jewish banker types are the issue, please enlighten us. Jim O'Neill and his amusing BRICS concept, now recast as MINT due to the failure of BRICS to generate decent client returns, underlines that the fact that he was a marketing and self-publicisizing genius at GSAM, but knew diddly squat about actual investing. What has Putin got to do with Brazil, India, China or South Africa? He may have royally shafted investors in Russia but it is a bit harsh to crucify him for the other 4 countries being recent investment graveyards. Exactly what is the point you are trying to make?...... All wars are banker wars and since bankers do not have armies at their disposal, they have to be fought with proxies. Care to name a few examples....? Still waiting to hear what on earth Putin has to do with the ludicrous BRICS sales pitch, and how Russia fails 3 out of 4 of the Budapest Memorandum conditions that you brought up... Also what is your problem with Mr Yatsenyuk? Is he "too Jewish" or too much of a banker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Credo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This should not be America's problem. If the Europeans want to do something about, it should be up to them. Not the US. Unfortunately, I see that CNN has already started its propaganda campaign, urging US interference and comparing the situation to the Sudetenland. America needs its own revolution to reverse its own police state policies. Let the Russians be. Let the Ukrainians solve their own problems. And let the Euros pay $20 Mcf for ng if they insist. I am sure the Americans would be more than willing to back off if the Europeans would ask and be willing to propose some strategy for dealing with Ukraine (and Russia) -- you know, like they did in the former Yugoslavia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asiantravel Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The question I have is where is Ukraine going to be able to get its $35 billion to save it from economic collapse? Russia has said they are not going to provide it and now the European Union would find it very hard to justify providing money while there are Russian troops and helicopters pouring over the border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folium Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The question I have is where is Ukraine going to be able to get its $35 billion to save it from economic collapse? Russia has said they are not going to provide it and now the European Union would find it very hard to justify providing money while there are Russian troops and helicopters pouring over the border? Very good question.... and if reports of Russian troops being airlifted into the Crimea, securing media outlets and cutting telecomms links with the outside world are true, we could be in for a few interesting days.... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10669475/Ukraine-Russia-launches-armed-invasion-as-Obama-warns-Moscow-of-costs-of-intervention.html This is a brazen and classic rerun of Russia's aggression in Georgia re Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It seems quite likely that Putin, having lost control of Ukraine, will settle with securing Crimea as a Russian area of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Credo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 What is the EU's stand on the situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asiantravel Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 (edited) The question I have is where is Ukraine going to be able to get its $35 billion to save it from economic collapse? Russia has said they are not going to provide it and now the European Union would find it very hard to justify providing money while there are Russian troops and helicopters pouring over the border? Very good question.... and if reports of Russian troops being airlifted into the Crimea, securing media outlets and cutting telecomms links with the outside world are true, we could be in for a few interesting days.... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10669475/Ukraine-Russia-launches-armed-invasion-as-Obama-warns-Moscow-of-costs-of-intervention.html This is a brazen and classic rerun of Russia's aggression in Georgia re Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It seems quite likely that Putin, having lost control of Ukraine, will settle with securing Crimea as a Russian area of control. and if reports of Russian troops being airlifted into the Crimea, securing media outlets and cutting telecomms links with the outside world are true From this footage. It looks like they are Edited March 1, 2014 by Asiantravel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asiantravel Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 What is the EU's stand on the situation? Other than lots of huffing and puffing what can the EU or NATO do? In fact Russia can claim every right to protect its military hardware in the Black Sea Fleet naval base and the Ukraine, even agreed to extend the lease for another 25 years beyond 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Credo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thanks for the reply, but I was wondering what the EU's feelings are about the situation in the Ukraine and what is that they are saying or that they want. Are they interested in the Ukraine being a part of the EU? Are they ambivalent? Is the reaction similar to Turkey's membership, sort of saying yes we want you, but in effect trying to prevent that happening? My apologies but I am really not up to speed on the Ukrainian situation with regard to the EU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folium Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 What is the EU's stand on the situation? Other than lots of huffing and puffing what can the EU or NATO do? In fact Russia can claim every right to protect its military hardware in the Black Sea Fleet naval base and the Ukraine, even agreed to extend the lease for another 25 years beyond 2017. Given the policy paralysis resulting from the Iraq/Afghan debacles, huff and puff are likely to be the main options for both the EU and NATO. Plus a few cancellations of meetings, cultural exchanges etc. Longer term it will underpin the necessity for Europe to reduce its dependence on Russian gas supplies. Nabucco and BTC pipelines will become more important, plus shale gas/oil might just become more attractive an option for Europeans. Ironically Ukraine has considerable shale potential. If the reports of military intervention in the Crimea are true, this amounts to an invasion of a sovereign state without cause or legal reason. Plus it rips up the Budapest memorandum, which was supposed to guarantee Ukraine's sovreignity and was signed by Russia. Quite how were Russian assets in Crimea under threat? What requirement was there for Russian troops to occupy the Crimea's Parliament building, civilian airports etc? Russia's intervention would be akin to British troops moving into Glasgow in an independent Scotland (were such a disaster to happen!) to ensure the "safety" of the bases at Faslane and Coulport (current home to the UK nuclear sub fleet and its nuclear missiles). Or from the US perspective an intervention into eastern Cuba to secure the Guantanamo Bay area. Putin is behaving like the bullying despot that he is. He believed that he can act however he wishes when it comes to the neighbouring states to Russia. Military occupation of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and TransDneister are all examples of this and the Crimea may well be added to this litany, unless there is a political and or financial price attached to his behaviour. The lease extension in 2010 for the Black Sea fleet was a classic example of using gas supplies (the price was cut by 30%, not so great for Gazprom shareholders or the Russian deficit), and financial incentives (keeping Yuschenko and his kleptocrat cronies well-funded), to achieve strategic aims. While Russia does have alternative Black Sea options at Novorossiysk and Gudauta in occupied Abhkazia, one of the main attractions of keeping bases in Crimea means that Ukraine cannot join NATO as the current charter forbids membership to countries with non-NATO bases within their territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mosha Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400035#TWEET1059180 Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 (edited) http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400035#TWEET1059180 Here we go Russia's President Vladimir Putin has asked his upper house of parliament to approve the deployment of Russian troops in Ukraine, the Kremlin says. The manipulation is so transparent its laughable. I was waiting for the above response to the earlier request by Crimea to Putin for help to ensure 'peace on the peninsula' - a request that would "not leave unnoticed" the Kremlin said at the time. Edited March 1, 2014 by simple1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fasth Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Russia declared war to Ukraine.They already accupied Crimea. There are number of state's gov. houses with russian flags instead of Ukrainian.Russian agressors as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basil B Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400035#TWEET1059180 Here we go Russia's President Vladimir Putin has asked his upper house of parliament to approve the deployment of Russian troops in Ukraine, the Kremlin says. The manipulation is so transparent its laughable. I was waiting for the above response to the earlier request by Crimea to Putin for help to ensure 'peace on the peninsula' - a request that would "not leave unnoticed" the Kremlin said at the time. Retrospective approval... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicog Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400035#TWEET1059180 Here we go Russia's President Vladimir Putin has asked his upper house of parliament to approve the deployment of Russian troops in Ukraine, the Kremlin says. The manipulation is so transparent its laughable. I was waiting for the above response to the earlier request by Crimea to Putin for help to ensure 'peace on the peninsula' - a request that would "not leave unnoticed" the Kremlin said at the time. Retrospective approval... I think it's more "told his upper house of parliament".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mosha Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If Putin wants Ukraine back, and let's say he wants it all back including the EU member states in the Baltic. What then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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