Abhisit's 'mission impossible' may still kick-start peace process

[webfact]

THAI TALK
Abhisit's 'mission impossible' may still kick-start peace process
Suthichai Yoon
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Abhisit Vejjajiva took many by surprise when he declared, almost out of the blue, last week that he was embarking on a new approach to help find a way out of the country's political crisis.

Even some within his opposition Democrat Party weren't quite sure what their leader was up to. The ruling Pheu Thai Party, while privately expressing satisfaction that one of their arch foes was coming round to their push for another election, was publicly sceptical.

Caretaker Premier Yingluck Shinawatra officially welcomed Abhisit's gesture but suggested that he should also talk to Suthep Thaugsuban, leader of the People's Democratic Reform Council (PDRC), to convince him to call off the six-month-old rally.

There was no escaping the fact that unless Abhisit could persuade his former deputy premier and Democrat Party secretary general to join the negotiation process, the Democrat leader's "new strategy" would be taken as just a "tactical move" rather than a real strategic shift.

Abhisit was at best ambiguous about his new plan - to transform his role from being a party to the conflict, to being a "coordinator" for all parties concerned.

"I can't keep still anymore," he declared, and immediately launched the first of a series of meetings with "key players" in the reform process, beginning with Justice Permanent Secretary Kittipong Kittayarak. Abhisit then gave interviews to major newspapers and TV channels before meeting the top brass to discuss his proposed "peace plan".

But he was far from clear over how he was going about his new mission. He was ready only to say that election and reform must be part and parcel of the proposed plan to put an end to the drawn-out conflict. Critics claim the Democrat leader had gone back on his original condition - that election must come after reform. Now, he was saying that he was more flexible on that condition. "Election must be part of the reform," he declared. That statement raised more questions that answers, obviously.

For the first time, perhaps, Abhisit said he was ready to talk to his arch-rival Thaksin Shinawatra, via Skype. He said he was open to talks with Premier Yingluck and Thaksin, insisting that the meeting should be broadcast live to minimise the chances of the encounter being used by followers of the two sides to discredit each other.

But Suthep has flatly rejected the introduction of a "middle man" to end the political crisis, declaring in no uncertain terms that nobody - no matter how close they are to him - should try to convince him to join in the talks.

"The PDRC has one clear condition: Whatever the proposed solution, Thaksin and his clan and his regime must be ejected from politics. If that's not on the agenda, forget it," Suthep said. He didn't mention Abhisit by name, but it was obvious that he was issuing a thinly-veiled warning to his former boss to refrain from striking a deal with the government for a new election, after the PDRC's intervention resulted in the Constitutional Court rendering the February 2 ballot invalid.

Reactions to Abhisit's move have been mixed. Interestingly enough, even Premier Yingluck has come out to ask the public to give the opposition leader a chance to launch a "roadshow". She probably believes Abhisit has finally come round to the idea of getting the Democrat Party back to the polling booths.

But she might be wrong - or at least partly wrong. Abhisit's meeting with members of the Election Commission on Tuesday ended with a general agreement that the election could be held only if some firm commitment on reform from all parties concerned was given.

Abhisit has yet to meet Yingluck. He will have to come face to face with Suthep to complete his round of talks with all stakeholders in the conflict.

At best this is a "mission impossible" for Abhisit. He insists he won't give up, despite all the obstacles and scepticism. His mission may be aborted but Abhisit will leave a trace to be followed. It won't be a lost cause. Nor will it be a total waste.

Abhisit can never hope to be seen as an "honest broker", but if he can start the "peace process" rolling, he will have made a significant contribution towards preventing the outbreak of violence at this very fragile juncture.


-- The Nation 2014-05-02

[Scamper]

This article summarizes well what Abhisit has been trying to do. The sad thing is that although one would think it is just naturally expected that politicians will envision their roles as a process of reach out to others to reach consensus - the sad fact of it is - Abhisit has distinguished himself as being unique in this initiative. Yingluck, Chalerm, Surapong, her cabinet ministers, - they all now have abdicated any sense of leadership they had assumed they had, and are not even interested in even pretending to embark on what Abhisit has embarked upon, or be in the least bit interested in it. Yet in spite of their completely lack of involvement or interest, they reserve the right to scoff. Yingluck has yet to meet Abhisit. Why ? Is she not an interested party ? Of course, it could well be asked why Yingluck has yet to meet anyone.

Edited May 2, 2014 by Scamper

[chainarong]

I think there is more to this action than what Abhisit is taking, the PTP have a right to be worried ,there days are possibly now numbered , interesting times ahead , either way, unless the Shinawatra family remove themselves out of politics and high ranking positions, conveniently made for them , trouble will continue , regardless of any piece process, Thailand will continue to go back wards, Shinawatra's are a family that can not help themselves.

[Publicus]

Someone who is connected to Suthep both politically and personally needs to sit the guy down to get him to stop, or at least to sit down and listen, hopefully to also talk.

Abhisit knows he is not that person. Suthep knows Abhisit is not that person. Everyone knows Abhisit is not that person. Abhisit is a desperate politician because AV knows he's taken himself out of the picture due to his several years of strategic blunders and due to his inability to lead his party either to an election poll victory or as an effective opposition.

Abhisit's decision to lead the boycott the Feb 2nd election combined with his refusal so far to commit to the announced July election have self-removed his democratic credentials. Abhisit long ago ceded democratic political processes and government to street mobs, military solutions, chaos, insurrection.

The fact is Abhisit is the first real casualty of the past 180 daze. Abhisit is therefore focused on exiting to hands clapping rather than to a mass of fingers jolting into the air. It looks like AV won't be able to avoid the latter.

[WoopyDoo]

Abhisit is on the right track..... His popularity is zooming and even within opposition parties.

Suthep is very much involved, he will relent under certain conditions that are not impossible to broker.

Most feedback has been very positive and even with the little bit of resistance and criticism pulling out only very very weak arguments such as we have had from the red neck Publius... very weak indeed in the scheme of things, but that is just straw clutching from a dying camp with waning support and an unmovable hatred for anything democratic.

Thankfully the vast 'informed' majority are in agreement with Abhisit that a compromise needs to be reached. If the red camp attempts to get it all its own way... the deal will be killed off, the next election will be spoiled again and no force will prevent this especially in the south. We will be back at square one.... The PM will almost certainly be gone anyway and possibly the cabinet too and PTP possibly even smashed apart through mass impeachments....

That will be the future dealt by the hand of the PTP and their decision will fall next week as to the future of Thailand.

PTP and all their supporters know 100% that a rejection by the PTP will be the end of the coming election.... They know it, yet will they stubbornly walk into it like they did in Feb knowing the outcome but blaming everyone else????

[DirtFarmer]

"Abhisit can never hope to be seen as an "honest broker", but if he can start the "peace process" rolling, he will have made a significant contribution towards preventing the outbreak of violence at this very fragile juncture."

First part I agree with but by joining this "significant contribution towards preventing the outbreak of violence now... is a day late and a dollar short in my mind...There has been all kinds of violence and had Abhisit actually not supported Suthep and his mugs early on...and had the eggs to stand alone and truly become a beacon for Democracy by advocating anything ( which we have yet to see) that contributed towards preventing the outbreak of violence last year when the first protests against the amnesty bill took place and it was defeated then I might agree..but unfortunately that is not the case...he played his cards and now he needs to fold...he does not have "the" much less "a" winning hand.

Edited May 2, 2014 by DirtFarmer

[Thai at Heart]

"Abhisit can never hope to be seen as an "honest broker", but if he can start the "peace process" rolling, he will have made a significant contribution towards preventing the outbreak of violence at this very fragile juncture."

First part I agree with but by joining this "significant contribution towards preventing the outbreak of violence now... is a day late and a dollar short in my mind...There has been all kinds of violence and had Abhisit actually not supported Suthp and his mugs early on...and had the eggs to stand alone and truly become a beacon for Democracy by advocating anything ( which we have yet to see) that contributed towards preventing the outbreak of violence last year when the first protests against the amnesty bill took place and it was defeated then I might agree..but unfortunately that is not the case...he played his cards and now he needs to fold...he does not have "the" much less "a" winning hand.

Indeed.

But what is obvious is that these guys never have a complete plan with everyone on board. They have half a plan and then the rest has to be planned at the end.

Hence why now, Suthep is being hung out to dry because he can't finish the job and Abhisit is taking the reins.

[Jingthing]

Abhisit may be damaged goods but compared to who else? It's relative. Yes, I know Yingluck is Thaksin's relative. But anyway ...