Yingluck gone but crisis resolution nowhere in sight

[webfact]

Yingluck gone but crisis resolution nowhere in sight
Tan Hui Yee
The Straits Times
Asia News Network

BANGKOK: -- Wednesday's much feared "knockout" punch for Thailand's Pheu Thai party-run caretaker government did not arrive.

While caretaker premier Yingluck Shinawatra, 46, and several Cabinet members were ordered by the Constitutional Court to leave office for abuse of power, the remaining team members regrouped and appointed her replacement.

The man Pheu Thai put in charge was caretaker commerce minister Niwatthamrong Boonsongpaisan, 66, and his team has already started pushing the election commission to speed up preparations for the planned July 20 general election.

On Tuesday, the commission appeared to hesitate as it awaited the court decision on Yingluck, delaying the submission of a draft decree on the polls and asking to meet the caretaker government again.

But supporters of the anti-government People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), which has been occupying sections of Bangkok and sabotaged the now-annulled February 2 polls, are unlikely to let the polls take place peacefully if it appears that Pheu Thai will be put in power again.

Asean's second-largest economy may have been battered by six months of political unrest but the court verdict has not brought a resolution any nearer. At the heart of the conflict is self-exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra - Yingluck's brother - who is reviled by the Bangkok-based establishment that has been trying to loosen his electoral grip on power for the past eight years.

While Wednesday's charter court verdict removed Thaksin loyalists like foreign minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul and labour minister Chalerm Yoobamrung, it spared Niwatthamrong - a former top executive in Thaksin-linked businesses.

Some observers think that Yingluck's removal may appease anti-government groups wanting to rid Thaksin's clan from politics, but Professor Gothom Arya, a peace studies expert in Mahidol University, told the Straits Times it could have the opposite effect.

"It will make the demonstrators more determined," he said. "They will be more adamant than ever to wipe out the Thaksin camp."

The PDRC quickly began preparations for its "ultimate uprising" against the "Thaksin regime", moving forward its mass rally plans to this week.

The pro-government United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) has readied its red-shirt provincial supporters to descend on Bangkok for its own rally tomorrow, and they are prepared to stay.

The Anti-Corruption Commission is scheduled to make a decision on whether to indict Yingluck over the controversial rice-price-pledging policy this week - a case that may have wider ramifications for the caretaker government.

Former UDD chairman Thida Thavornseth said: "We are going to be fighting for a long time. This is not the end. Even if they dissolve the Pheu Thai party, they cannot dissolve the red shirts."

Thida said that the red-shirt demonstration would be peaceful, and chances of clashes with the PDRC are low because the red shirts' rally would be on the outskirts of the city.

But some analysts are more concerned, given the rising sense of frustration felt by supporters of a government that has been steadily hemmed in by emboldened protesters, an aloof military and controversial court cases. Distrust of the justice system runs high.

Lawyer and social commentator Verapat Pariyawong said: "To be realistic, once the rule of law in the chamber is gone, all that is left is probably violence on the street."

Yingluck, he said, had probably been a calming influence on hot-headed elements of her team and also red-shirt supporters. The question is, who will play that role now that she is out of the picture.


-- The Nation 2014-05-09

[terryp]

the greed of thais is so deep, this will not end in my lifetime or my childrens.......the pain has not even started yet and sad to say many people will be killed before Thailand even gets onto the road of some kind of normallity and this will include civil war and many military coup.....I advise all have an exit plan because when this kics off you need to get away from it fast

[NongKhaiKid]

She's not actually gone and neither have the others.

PTP say she's still Defence Minister, Chalerm can run CAPO etc.

If YL is no longer PM will she have the free time to attend defence committe meetings ? Oh stop being ridiculous NKK.

[meatboy]

She's not actually gone and neither have the others.

PTP say she's still Defence Minister, Chalerm can run CAPO etc.

If YL is no longer PM will she have the free time to attend defence committe meetings ? Oh stop being ridiculous NKK.

she was heard yesterday singing that song made famous by john Denver.cant remember the name but the first line goes,

"my bags are packed and im ready to go"

[NongKhaiKid]

She's not actually gone and neither have the others.

PTP say she's still Defence Minister, Chalerm can run CAPO etc.

If YL is no longer PM will she have the free time to attend defence committe meetings ? Oh stop being ridiculous NKK.

she was heard yesterday singing that song made famous by john Denver.cant remember the name but the first line goes,

"my bags are packed and im ready to go"

leaving on ' my brother's private ' jet plane ?

[Roadman]

Of course there is no change with Yingluck gone. Jeez her brother has been running the country from Dubai since he has sojourned there so whats going to change when the Rule of Law is ignored by all thai's.

[Scamper]

Even Thida is musing about the possibility of Pheu Thai's dissolution. How far the goal posts have moved. There is no mistaking that Pheu Thai is struggling to remain in power. But they do not have the instruments of power. They do not have a prime minister - despite their claims to the contrary. A prime minister can only be constitutionally elected through a quorum-filled parliament or from the Senate in the event of a quorum-less parliament. Period. They have half a cabinet. They have people who refuse to budge. Chalerm's not going. Surapong's not going. Pheu Thai believe that Yingluck is still defense minister. But they have no legislative power. They have no parliament. They have no public mandate. They have no path to a election, either, because only a constitutionally recognized prime minister can set one in motion. So the state of this " administration " is far more tenuous than even this article imagines.

[rijb]

Ok. They're on the ropes and on the way out. So what are you still worried about?

[chainarong]

There solution for this, which has been brewing since 2001 , is light years away and all because of one word Shinawtra.

[jucel]

Of course there is no change with Yingluck gone. Jeez her brother has been running the country from Dubai since he has sojourned there so whats going to change when the Rule of Law is ignored by all thai's.

He's probably pleasantly surprised how long she lasted as PM!

[gabruce]

Even Thida is musing about the possibility of Pheu Thai's dissolution. How far the goal posts have moved. There is no mistaking that Pheu Thai is struggling to remain in power. But they do not have the instruments of power. They do not have a prime minister - despite their claims to the contrary. A prime minister can only be constitutionally elected through a quorum-filled parliament or from the Senate in the event of a quorum-less parliament. Period. They have half a cabinet. They have people who refuse to budge. Chalerm's not going. Surapong's not going. Pheu Thai believe that Yingluck is still defense minister. But they have no legislative power. They have no parliament. They have no public mandate. They have no path to a election, either, because only a constitutionally recognized prime minister can set one in motion. So the state of this " administration " is far more tenuous than even this article imagines.

The CC will probably have to be petitioned and issue a ruling on what body can appoint a caretaker prime minister. Even then there will still be noises from the PTP that the senate can't appoint anyone because there already is an acting caretaker prime minister and so there is no need for a caretaker prime minister. Hey, that just might be a brilliant legal argument!

[FangFerang]

the greed of thais is so deep, this will not end in my lifetime or my childrens.......the pain has not even started yet and sad to say many people will be killed before Thailand even gets onto the road of some kind of normallity and this will include civil war and many military coup.....I advise all have an exit plan because when this kics off you need to get away from it fast

I actually hate agreeing with you, but I do. All sides need to sit down and talk -- productive talk, not whistle-blowing or waving flags like the one holding the pole is the only true Thai. No more posturing.

But they have not and will not. Compromise is the only path to peace, but no one is listening...only speaking. A friend of mine, a very good man, told me a proverb from the Assyrian people -- we have two ears and one mouth because we should listen twice as often as we speak.

I have great affection for Thais. They need to stop killing each other. Murderers who kill children are not human beings, they are mad dogs that should be terminated with extreme prejudice. People who interfere with elections are traitors, and should be treated as such.

What a tragic mess. And it is getting messier as it goes.

[zookerman]

She's not actually gone and neither have the others.

PTP say she's still Defence Minister, Chalerm can run CAPO etc.

If YL is no longer PM will she have the free time to attend defence committe meetings ? Oh stop being ridiculous NKK.

she was heard yesterday singing that song made famous by john Denver.cant remember the name but the first line goes,

"my bags are packed and im ready to go"

Uh hum -- that would be Peter, Paul and Mary -- Leaving on a Jet Plane

[Crossy]

She's not actually gone and neither have the others.

PTP say she's still Defence Minister, Chalerm can run CAPO etc.

If YL is no longer PM will she have the free time to attend defence committe meetings ? Oh stop being ridiculous NKK.

she was heard yesterday singing that song made famous by john Denver.cant remember the name but the first line goes,

"my bags are packed and im ready to go"

Uh hum -- that would be Peter, Paul and Mary -- Leaving on a Jet Plane

John Denver wrote it and recorded it (as "Babe, I hate to go") before PP&M http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaving_on_a_Jet_Plane

[Asiantravel]

Ok. They're on the ropes and on the way out. So what are you still worried about?

The anger and alienation felt by the rural Thais and what they demand from a political system does not depend on Shinawtra .

[Cake Monster]

How can this possibly be over when the remnants of the discharged Government are Thaksin puppets, and supporters.