Pound/Baht

[chiang mai]

Anyone who has any doubts about the strength of the UK economy and it's recovery needs to listen to Mark Carney, Governer BOE, today, explain things to a Parliamentary committee, listen careful and pay attention , there are no pictures and they all us long words!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27990974

And if that doesn't satisfy you , see how the markets responded as he spoke:

Edited June 24, 2014 by chiang mai

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Anyone who has any doubts about the strength of the UK economy and it's recovery needs to listen to Mark Carney, Governer BOE, today, explain things to a Parliamentary committee, listen careful and pay attention , there are no pictures and they all us long words!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27990974

And if that doesn't satisfy you , see how the markets responded as he spoke:

chart.png

Pound dropped from 55.25 to 55.05 then quickly recovered to 55.15.

Whatever he said must have been really, really important.

A massive drop of 0.2%, which will be back up tomorrow.

[mccw]

Could it be all the chat is just to trick that rates will one day come back to "normal" (whatever that is). For years it's same tease of a rise then delay- just to keep people faith in currency while the close to zero rates which are really impossible to raise can continue with out having what would otherwise perhaps be much stronger inflationary effect.

[chiang mai]

Anyone who has any doubts about the strength of the UK economy and it's recovery needs to listen to Mark Carney, Governer BOE, today, explain things to a Parliamentary committee, listen careful and pay attention , there are no pictures and they all us long words!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27990974

And if that doesn't satisfy you , see how the markets responded as he spoke:

chart.png

Pound dropped from 55.25 to 55.05 then quickly recovered to 55.15.

Whatever he said must have been really, really important.

A massive drop of 0.2%, which will be back up tomorrow.

You didn't listen to what he had to say, I can tell!

[mccw]

I expect the next crises will hit before interest rates go up.

And then what stimulus policies will be left? Negative rates like EU ? More QE to the power of 10 or 100?

Maybe next time the faith will be gone and currencies crash and rates have no choice but to shoot up! Like 15-20% level. Then the next super cycle of gradually decreasing interest rates can begin again.

[chiang mai]

Anyone who has any doubts about the strength of the UK economy and it's recovery needs to listen to Mark Carney, Governer BOE, today, explain things to a Parliamentary committee, listen careful and pay attention , there are no pictures and they all us long words!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27990974

And if that doesn't satisfy you , see how the markets responded as he spoke:

chart.png

Pound dropped from 55.25 to 55.05 then quickly recovered to 55.15.

Whatever he said must have been really, really important.

A massive drop of 0.2%, which will be back up tomorrow.

A reasonably safe bet I would think as central banks and large scale players adjust values accordingly. Important to admit understand however that the market trend as Carney spoke was downwards and that markets reacted defensibly, it was not an upwards move by any measure.

[watso63]

Just got back in. The BofE governor says some crap...well that's what Boring Clown and Merv King dished up for years (positive spin) and the British markets go into a frenzy. Thailand has a military coup after months of political stagnation against a back drop of economic lie after lie and the teflon baht strengthens. Couldn't make it up!

What I see with my own eyes are Thai people that earn chicken feed, driving around in expensive cars (same cars cheap in the UK) expensive tractors parked up most of the year not earning money, but looking good next to the family shack, scraping enough money together for their children to get the most basic of basic education ie no idea about complex mathematics, biology, geography, chemistry, physics, economics, history (outside Thailand) or foreign languages, but they do look good in their different daily uniforms??? and those very same children spending a large chunk of days living wage of 300Thb in their morning visit to a 7/11. I predicted the bust in the UK and I can see the same here. Young people are already addicted to western lifestyles, but when the plug is pulled on the credit, then what???

Sent from my GT-N5100 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[watso63]

In the UK my own rule of thumb was; after all of a persons outgoings were deducted, then at least £200/week was required for a decent living. I would say £100/week is achievable in Thailand outside BKK and the tourist areas. Multiples of income to decide mortgage borrowing limits is useless unless all expenditure is assessed first.

Sent from my GT-N5100 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[mccw]

So there you have it- whole system is based on the availability of credit.

What happens when/ if it dries up?

It all collapses.

What does that mean in the UK? Social and humanitarian chaos I think- nobody would know how to survive with out jobs or a government with enough valued currency to keep them fed.

What does that mean in Thailand/ Asia? The people just go back to the farms. They still remember how to stand on their own feet.

If worse case scenario like that then Thailand and especially not a big city is the place to be.

Fingers crossed it doesn't go down that way.

As a tightening of credit scenario rather than total collapse it seems Thailand has more slack to keep going due to currently higher interest rates than the west and higher capitalised banks; nor any QE program of course. Where as the west is basically running on gasses.

[watso63]

So there you have it- whole system is based on the availability of credit.

What happens when/ if it dries up?

It all collapses.

What does that mean in the UK? Social and humanitarian chaos I think- nobody would know how to survive with out jobs or a government with enough valued currency to keep them fed.

What does that mean in Thailand/ Asia? The people just go back to the farms. They still remember how to stand on their own feet.

If worse case scenario like that then Thailand and especially not a big city is the place to be.

Fingers crossed it doesn't go down that way.

As a tightening of credit scenario rather than total collapse it seems Thailand has more slack to keep going due to currently higher interest rates than the west and higher capitalised banks; nor any QE program of course. Where as the west is basically running on gasses.

Yes, it is a good thing that Thailand has small farm/land stakeholders, but most people either rent the land to farm or are granted goverment owned land on which to farm. I come from a coal mining/farming community back in the UK. Only farmers owned the land and as years went by, the successful larger farmers bought out the smaller etc I hope Thailand doesn't go the same way. I know Thai people that live off the land and their own livestock, make their own clothes and barter etc, but when it comes to the children, coke, smartphones, internet, ice cream television are all accepted as family expenditure.

We always have economic cycles in the west and in a few years this bust will be forgotten and another boom will happen, because the system and the media will make sure it happens. Sad, but true, but as things improve in thevwestern economies, investment will leave Thailand for sure. Besides, they have a very hungry new neighbour in Burma/Myanmar that will look very attractive to investors.

[mccw]

Despite all the hype I think the neighboring countries are a long way off being as attractive as Thailand for investment. Lack of basic infrastructure, like roads, ports, non interrupted and ecconomic electricity supply, unclear and untested legal system.

Investment is/ will mostly be the kind that just rapes the countries natural resources; nothing like thailands higher tech automotive industries any time soon probably. Maybe a few bottom of the barrel sweat shops, but then I read that the electric costs out weigh the labour savings currently + the quality is poor in comparison.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[mccw]

Also on the policy side, you think everything can continue in furture decades the same as it did in the past; but how? Last 3 decades of boom bust cycles were powered by credit and the lowering of interest rates, now rates are at zero basically, what can they do to stimulate booms out past the next bust cycle? Massive QE and negative rates? Maybe that can push another bump up. But then what?

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[Pattszero]

The Uk will be the largest economy in Europe in 15 years

[phutoie2]

The Uk will be the largest economy in Europe in 15 years

The Scots may have something to say on that come September.

[watso63]

Also on the policy side, you think everything can continue in furture decades the same as it did in the past; but how? Last 3 decades of boom bust cycles were powered by credit and the lowering of interest rates, now rates are at zero basically, what can they do to stimulate booms out past the next bust cycle? Massive QE and negative rates? Maybe that can push another bump up. But then what?

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Because I never underestimate how low the sleazebucket money men, politicians, arms dealers and the media will stoop to make their millions. No doubt, it will take time but I have complete faith in the greed of mankind. It's early days for Burma, but I still think Thailand is damaged goods.

When the baht started eating into the value of the pound I tried my best to understand why and everytime I concluded that it couldn't be sustained. I am glad I was right then and I can only see sterling maintaining or increasing its current value over the baht for the forseeable future. In essence, I believe the UK has scraped along the bottom, but of course the Scottish referendum and whether we decide to leave the EU will provide a few more bumps before the inevitable strong rise in growth of the UK (or whatever its name will be if Scotland votes for independence) economy.

Edited June 25, 2014 by watso63

[i claudius]

There are many good signs, well better than the Eurozone and good ol' US of A right now.

I rest my case, current UK economic strength is relative to the very weak strength of other major economies, it's akin to one ugly guy going drinking with three super ugly mates and all the girls think he's the good looking one!

The actual reply i made to this post was deleted (to rude?) but all i can now say is, he still gets the girl

[i claudius]

The Uk will be the largest economy in Europe in 15 years

The Scots may have something to say on that come September.

yes ,they will vote to stay in ,turkeys never vote for xmas.

[chiang mai]

The reason GBP fell whilst Carney was speaking was because they realized that an interest rate rise was still some way off, that means the banks and mortgage holders have been given some breathing room again! The reason for delivering that message of course is because the economy is not yet firing on all cylinders plus it'll be election time soon and it wont do any good to create too much consumer/banking stress before then. But fundamentally the UK economy is not there yet, it's getting better but it's got ways to go before it can be described as robust and stable.

And whatever you might think of Carney, he is a smart well educated guy with oodles of experience who knows the job well, he's worth listening to rather than dismissing as simply yet another banker.

[chiang mai]

Anyone who has any doubts about the strength of the UK economy and it's recovery needs to listen to Mark Carney, Governer BOE, today, explain things to a Parliamentary committee, listen careful and pay attention , there are no pictures and they all us long words!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27990974

And if that doesn't satisfy you , see how the markets responded as he spoke:

chart.png

Pound dropped from 55.25 to 55.05 then quickly recovered to 55.15.

Whatever he said must have been really, really important.

A massive drop of 0.2%, which will be back up tomorrow.

Er, it's tomorrow already and it's still down there, is it just resting?

[i claudius]

Anyone who has any doubts about the strength of the UK economy and it's recovery needs to listen to Mark Carney, Governer BOE, today, explain things to a Parliamentary committee, listen careful and pay attention , there are no pictures and they all us long words!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27990974

And if that doesn't satisfy you , see how the markets responded as he spoke:

chart.png

Pound dropped from 55.25 to 55.05 then quickly recovered to 55.15.

Whatever he said must have been really, really important.

A massive drop of 0.2%, which will be back up tomorrow.

Er, it's tomorrow already and it's still down there, is it just resting?

it was but it's creeping back up again

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Anyone who has any doubts about the strength of the UK economy and it's recovery needs to listen to Mark Carney, Governer BOE, today, explain things to a Parliamentary committee, listen careful and pay attention , there are no pictures and they all us long words!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27990974

And if that doesn't satisfy you , see how the markets responded as he spoke:

chart.png

Pound dropped from 55.25 to 55.05 then quickly recovered to 55.15.

Whatever he said must have been really, really important.

A massive drop of 0.2%, which will be back up tomorrow.

Er, it's tomorrow already and it's still down there, is it just resting?

There we go back up again, plus a bit more, didn't take long did it?

[chiang mai]

Anyone who has any doubts about the strength of the UK economy and it's recovery needs to listen to Mark Carney, Governer BOE, today, explain things to a Parliamentary committee, listen careful and pay attention , there are no pictures and they all us long words!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27990974

And if that doesn't satisfy you , see how the markets responded as he spoke:

chart.png

Pound dropped from 55.25 to 55.05 then quickly recovered to 55.15.

Whatever he said must have been really, really important.

A massive drop of 0.2%, which will be back up tomorrow.

Er, it's tomorrow already and it's still down there, is it just resting?

There we go back up again, plus a bit more, didn't take long did it?

I think it's important that people understand the impact that separate issues have on the exchange rate, the current surge by GBP resulted from BOE introducing mortgage controls yesterday morning, as can be seen.

[i claudius]

We do understand old lad ,it's just that we enjoy baiting you

[chiang mai]

That's a great line IC, but honestly, I'm just not convinced that the "we" in actually bright enough for it to be entirely correct.

Edited June 27, 2014 by chiang mai

[AnotherOneAmerican]

We do understand old lad ,it's just that we enjoy baiting you:thumbsup:

I'm a master baiter!

[mccw]

We do understand old lad ,it's just that we enjoy baiting you:thumbsup:

I'm a master baiter!

Ah- you must work in finance- bunch of "bankers" the lot of em

55

[i claudius]

The pound seems to be on the up ,will it last?

[SheungWan]

The pound seems to be on the up ,will it last?

Seemingly we are going to be blessed with questions like these. Long may it 'er, last.

Edited July 1, 2014 by SheungWan

[i claudius]

The pound seems to be on the up ,will it last?

Seemingly we are going to be blessed with questions like these. Long may it 'er, last.

well ,answer us ,come on ,wakey wakey.

ps where is Naam when you need him?

Edited July 2, 2014 by i claudius

[Naam]

a Pound will always be half a Kilogram. never a fart-thing more, never a fart-thing less. wishful thinkers are allowed the thought "one Pound = 500 grams" and the dreamers have my permission to salivate over "one Pound = 500,000 milligrams, UK rules down with the €U!" as this causes no harm.