Bank of Thailand hopes for better economic news in June figures

[webfact]

BOARD OF THAILAND
BOT hopes for better economic news in June figures
Erich Parpart
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The Bank of Thailand has high hopes that June's economic indicators will be more positive, as it believes gross domestic product is on an upward trend and recovery will be more apparent in the third quarter.

Don Nakornthab, the director of macroeconomic policy at the BOT, said the acceleration of domestic consumption along with increased business and investment sentiment from the stable political situation and economic certainty would pave the way for GDP growth in the second half of the year. "There is the possibility that the economy will return to positive expansion year on year [in July] and we have high hopes for June, since the overall economy is starting to get back on track," he said.

Don said the positive economic numbers would be more tangible once June figures are compiled as a result of increased domestic consumption, a spike in government spending and a clearer investment timeline for the public sector.

"Overall economic activities in May picked up slightly from the previous month, since manufacturing production and private-sector spending started to show signs of recovery," he said.

"Private consumption has picked up pace, as has spending on non-durable items, which benefited from higher non-farm income from overtime."

However, he said that when the second quarter was compared with the same quarter in 2013, growth contracted slightly, while the Private Consumption Index contracted 0.3 per cent as a result of the political uncertainty before the coup.

That was the result of businesses continuing to delay new investments while waiting for clearer signs of an economic recovery and government policy clarity.

The value of imports increasing from US$16.5 billion in April to $17.5 billion (Bt568 billion) in May was in line with the sequential expansion in manufacturing production and domestic investment.

However, he said the Manufacturing Production Index contracted 4.1 per cent in May year on year as a result of a slowdown in production of automobiles, electrical appliances, and frozen shrimp.

In terms of exports, he said that if the country depended on the old economic structure, which concentrated on exports, it would be in trouble when the export value and volume contracted, and this was a good opportunity to switch on the domestic engines to help drive the economy.

The export value would have to reach$20 billion per month from June onwards to fulfil the central bank's export-growth prediction of 3 per cent this year.

Export value in May was equal to $19.268 billion, contracting 1.2 per cent year on year, while the average export value from January to May was $18.386 billion per month.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/BOT-hopes-for-better-economic-news-in-June-figures-30237464.html


-- The Nation 2014-07-01

[lostsoul49]

Well it's now July, so surely they have the figures for June.

[iphad]

Well it's now July, so surely they have the figures for June.

July just started 7 hours ago...I'm sure they are working on June's figures right now and will be out shortly.

[noitom]

And does BOT perceive that there is more clarity around risk to investments under a military dictatorship? What investment banker would put his job on the line to recommend investing in Thailand?

[Hawk]

Hopes can be easily dashed and will be as was previously predicted. The honest facts are that the economy is ill.

[kalbo123]

And does BOT perceive that there is more clarity around risk to investments under a military dictatorship? What investment banker would put his job on the line to recommend investing in Thailand?

According to the hight of the SET a lot!

Weird but true, still a lot of investors buy Thai stocks.

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[webfact]

Economy picks up but export misses target



BANGKOK: -- The Bank of Thailand says Thai economy recovered from the first quarter setback in the second quarter of this year, while business confidence is also improving.

But despite of recovery sign, exporter association concedes that the country’s export might not reach the growth target this year.

Don Nakornthab, Director of BoT’s Macroeconomic Policy, said Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the second quarter was 1-1.1 percent above the quarterly average, reflecting a strong comeback from the first quarter decline of 0.6 percent.

The second quarter economic growth is, however, down by 0.4 percent compared with the same period of last year, he said.

But he said even though the expansion would be negative, the recovery is considered substantial.

He said the economy has passed its lowest point and has a tendency to go up since April this year.

He attributed the second quarter economic improvement to expansions of industrial sector, private spending and private consumption.

The senior BoT official conceded that the country’s export still faces slow recovery due to weak demands for agricultural, processed agricultural and automotive products in the Asian region.

Thailand’s export in May shrunk by 1.2 percent year on year, he said, adding that the country’s export value has to reach 20,000 billion US dollar each month from June to December in order for the country to achieve the annual growth target of 3.5 percent, set by the central bank.

He suggested Thailand to turn into ASEAN and Middle East markets.

Meanwhile chairman of the Thai National Shippers Council Nopporn Thepsitthar admitted that Thai exports may not be able to achieve the annual growth target of 3 percent, set by the agency.

He said continued negative export growth of the country reflected the sector’s lack of competitiveness and the gloomy global economic condition.

In the long run, he said the Thai export has a tendency to decline.

Exporters will start to feel the impact next year from the European Union’s decision to curtail trade cooperation and trade visits with Thailand and the downgrade of the country by the US to the lowest standing in its annual Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report although their good orders are not yet affected for the time being.

As Thailand is set to exit from the EU Generalized System of Preference Scheme at the end of this year, he said exporters are calling for the government sector to quickly arrange measures to assist them.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/economy-picks-export-misses-target/


-- Thai PBS 2014-07-01

[Baerboxer]

Hopes can be easily dashed and will be as was previously predicted. The honest facts are that the economy is ill.

After nearly 3 years of complete mismanagement and uncertainty what do you expect?

Having said that, the ratings have not been substantially downgraded, and no one is making a drama out of the ethical issues (yet). Investors still seem to think Thailand's fundamentals are right.

[Baerboxer]

And does BOT perceive that there is more clarity around risk to investments under a military dictatorship? What investment banker would put his job on the line to recommend investing in Thailand?

Investment Bankers, analysts, fund managers etc couldn't give a toss about politics per se.

Is the military likely to provide a more stable less volatile and better run environment (in its broadest sense) than the previous regime? Are the risks likely to increase, diminish or stay the same? What are the opportunities compared to these risks? That's what they ponder, not how many foreign trips can Yinggy squeeze in this month; although the rice losses, lack of management and accountability were a cause of concern.

There would have been considerable more concern, I suggest, in the international finance and investment community, should PTP have remained/returned to power and got their hands on the 2.2 trillion.

[bigbamboo]

And does BOT perceive that there is more clarity around risk to investments under a military dictatorship? What investment banker would put his job on the line to recommend investing in Thailand?

Given the choice of an honest military dictatorship or a corrupt elected government which would you choose?

[neverdie]

And does BOT perceive that there is more clarity around risk to investments under a military dictatorship? What investment banker would put his job on the line to recommend investing in Thailand?

Given the choice of an honest military dictatorship or a corrupt elected government which would you choose?

BigB,

I would go the army, EVERYTIME.

I was actually hoping that the Australian Army would take over Australia too.....and if they could eliminate all sides of politics there, that would be a good start too.