Middle East conflict: Need for credible mediator

[Lite Beer]

Middle East conflict: Need for credible mediator
James M Dorsey
 

An Israeli soldier carries a shell as he and his comrades prepare their tanks stationed at an army deployment area along the border between Israel and the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip on Thursday. 

 

Despite Israel's devastating bombardment of Gaza the two sides both want a long-lasting ceasefire but need a third party to negotiate the terms

AMID THE death and destruction raining down on the Gaza Strip there is a sliver of hope. Seldom have the makings for a mutually-agreed long-term arrangement that would give both parties a degree of stability and security and allow for Palestinian as well as Israeli economic growth, been better than today.

In fact, in a perverse way, the Israeli assault on Gaza has improved chances for such an arrangement by politically strengthening Hamas, the Islamist militia, which is no match for the Israeli military but has already scored a psychological victory. Hamas demonstrated its ability to reach major Israeli cities with its rockets, infiltrate Israel proper, persuade international airlines to halt flights to Tel Aviv and put up fierce urban resistance inside Gazan towns.

Israel hopes to weaken and demilitarise Hamas but not totally eradicate it because that could open the door to more militant Islamist groups taking control of Gaza. In its view, a weakened Hamas would strengthen Palestine Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and either undermine the Palestinian position or render it incapable of negotiating a final solution of the conflict on terms remotely acceptable to Palestinians.

This would spare Israel the painful decisions it would have to take that are necessary for any definitive peace settlement to work, such as the dismantling of Israeli settlements on the occupied West Bank and a shared future for East Jerusalem, both of which it conquered during the 1967 Middle East war. As a result, Israel's preferred solution for the medium, if not, the long term, is the status quo with effectively full control of the West Bank and a defanged Hamas.

Although for very different reasons and on different terms, Hamas shares with Israel the goal of a longer-term arrangement that would not force it to make political concessions such as recognition of Israel and renunciation of the armed struggle. Hamas has repeatedly called for a 10-year ceasefire.

It recognises that Palestinians are in no position to persuade or impose on Israel terms that would guarantee a truly independent Palestinian state alongside Israel that would be anything more than a militarily weak adjunct of its powerful neighbour.

Nevertheless, as in most armed confrontations with Palestinians and Arabs since the 1967 war, Israel wins militarily but loses politically. If anything that trend is even more pronounced in the current conflict against a backdrop of improved Palestinian military performance, however limited, and mounting international unease not only with the toll in civilian lives but with Israeli policy towards Palestinian territories at large.

Hamas' growing street credibility

In addition, Hamas has increased street credibility, while Abbas has been rendered even more ineffective than he already was. Using the death of three kidnapped teenagers as a pretext, Israel went on the offensive against Hamas even before it attacked Gaza to undermine the one effort by Abbas and Hamas for the formation of a national unity government that could have enabled the Palestinians to negotiate a final solution.

As a result, with neither party really interested in a final resolution, a long-term arrangement is potentially the best deal on the table. Nevertheless, a deal on a long-term ceasefire could well be stranded on issues such as the future of the seven-year old Israeli blockade of Gaza that impairs its ability to freely import goods.

Other issues are Palestinian demands that it be able to build an airport and a port - requirements for economic growth that would complicate Israeli control. Only a mediator trusted by both parties would be able to explore whether those hurdles can be surmounted.

Interlocutors talk to interlocutors

And that is where the problem lies. No single mediator - the United States, the European Union, Egypt, Qatar or Turkey - is able to talk with any credibility to the two key parties, Israel and Hamas. The US and Israel as well as various European countries refuse to engage with Hamas whom they have labelled a terrorist organisation.

Egypt, while professing to sympathise with the Palestinians, is happy to see the Israelis do the dirty work for them in weakening what they see as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, the group it has banned as terrorists. Turkey's relations with Israel have hit a new low and Qatar has no formal ties to Israel.

What this in effect means is that interlocutors have to talk each other to reach one of the two concerned parties - hardly a recipe for the kind of success that does not simply end the bloodshed but creates the basis for a longer term arrangement that has a chance of moving things forward.

The ideal solution would be to bring Hamas in from the cold. That is obviously, with the fighting on the ground, beyond the realm of the possible. US President Barack Obama's approach prior to the Gaza crisis was, after Secretary of State John Kerry's failed effort to negotiate a peace agreement, to let the parties stew in their own mess.

Letting the parties stew fails to recognise opportunity and produces calamities like Gaza.

A more constructive approach would be to recognise that neither Israel nor Hamas - two parties without whom a final resolution will remain an illusion - want peace but do want a long-term cessation of hostilities. Achieving that would constitute significant progress and make the massive loss of life less senseless.

James M Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, co-director of the Institute of Fan Culture of the University of Wurzburg. He is also author of the blog "The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer" and a forthcoming book with the same title.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Middle-East-conflict-Need-for-credible-mediator-30240030.html

 

[thenation]2014-08-02[/thenation]

[Ulysses G.]

There IS no credible mediator. Neither side trusts the USA with President Obama in power.

[arjunadawn]

This article blends fact and fiction.

[SOTIRIOS]

......how can there be negotiations when one side states....."......the other side are not humans....not worthy of life..."

 

 

[joshstiles]

WHAT???!?!?!?!   The USA is completely credible.  How could anyone say different?!?!?!?  Obama is the most trustworthy and honest politician since James Brown!

 

....hey buddy, James Brown was a musician

 

Oh.

 

....and he did a lot of drugs too....

 

He did?  Clinton smoked pot....he was honest....

[Jay Sata]

The Israelis do not want a mediator.

That would involve freeing the blockade on Gaza, removing all the half million or so settlers in the West Bank and giving exiled Palestinians the right to return just like their Jewish cousins.

How many votes would that win with the right wing Zionists?

[neverdie]

There IS no credible mediator. Neither side trusts the USA with President Obama in power.

UG,

Is there not a thread anywhere, where you don't denounce Obama & blame him for something?

I can't remember who you blamed for sHit before he came along but these days your like a broken down record.

There are people in this world that didn't trust American administrations for decades before Obama was even a wad in his old mans sack.

There are other people in this world that could mediate outside the USA, problem is the parties involved need the desire for mediation instead of KILL Mode.

[Franky Bear]

Israel will do what Israel thinks is right for them and will not give two shhits about what anyone else says....I kind of admire them for that. That doesn't mean i think what they do is right though

[Jingthing]

The Israelis do not want a mediator.

That would involve freeing the blockade on Gaza, removing all the half million or so settlers in the West Bank and giving exiled Palestinians the right to return just like their Jewish cousins.

How many votes would that win with the right wing Zionists?

Typical.

You "forgot" to mention that Hamas does not accept the right of Israel to even exist. 

[Chicog]

There IS no credible mediator. Neither side trusts the USA with President Obama in power.

 

Only one side trusts the USA, and that's because they have America by the short and curlies.

 

See my post in the other thread about how the US immigration bill to solve the current crisis strangely includes some money for Iron Dome.

 

If Israel stopped using its seditious influence to get financial and political support from everyone else, it would collapse in a matter of years.

But then of course, the threat of the nuclear button would rear its ugly head, and that is the gun it has pointed at every Western leaders head.

[Jay Sata]

Well the way your peace loving Israel has acted over the last few weeks there are now over a thousand Palestinian civilians who no longer exists thanks to the bombs and tanks of the warmonger Netanyahu.

The world sees this every day on TV and in the newspapers so your blinkered views are achieving nothing.

I take it you get your news from Fox?

[Jingthing]

...
I take it you get your news from Fox?

Not me. What a tired argument. 

[CharlieH]

Post removed.

7) You will respect fellow members and post in a civil manner. No personal attacks, hateful or insulting towards other members, (flaming) Stalking of members on either the forum or via PM will not be allowed.

[Ulysses G.]

 

There IS no credible mediator. Neither side trusts the USA with President Obama in power.

UG,

Is there not a thread anywhere, where you don't denounce Obama & blame him for something?

 

Why don't you address what I actually said? Is there something there that is not true?  He is the president right now. Do you really think that either side trusts him?  Are you folks going to blame this one on Bush too?    

[joepublic]

There IS no credible mediator. Neither side trusts the USA with President Obama in power.

 

Nothing to do with Obama - the USA has never been credible, regardless of who is placed in the Whitehouse - AIPAC sees to that.  Its not that Americans are bad, its just that when it comes to Israel, you are not dealing with Americans, you are dealing with  Zionists who hold American nationality - a fifth column if you will.

 

Before accepting  the words of any US politician, policy maker or opinion former, you should check their heritage, their CV, their funding and donations,  and their connections with AIPAC. The truth becomes self evident

 

 

Their loyalty is to Israel, not to America.

[Jay Sata]

More than 1,600 Palestinians have been killed and nearly 7,000 wounded. Israel says that alongside the deaths of 63 of its soldiers, two civilians and a Thai national have died and more than 400 have been injured.

All this for nothing as the warmonger in charge has no concept of strategy and world opinion.

The three settler teenagers who's slaying caused Netanyahu to embark on this mass slaughter had nothing to do with Gaza.

As some of you can only see the Israeli side perhaps you can justify the grief of the parents of the 63 dead soldiers?

How many more before he sees this strategy will achieve nothing.

[Jay Sata]

There IS no credible mediator. Neither side trusts the USA with President Obama in power.

 
Nothing to do with Obama - the USA has never been credible, regardless of who is placed in the Whitehouse - AIPAC sees to that.  Its not that Americans are bad, its just that when it comes to Israel, you are not dealing with Americans, you are dealing with  Zionists who hold American nationality - a fifth column if you will.
 
Before accepting  the words of any US politician, policy maker or opinion former, you should check their heritage, their CV, their funding and donations,  and their connections with AIPAC. The truth becomes self evident
 
 
Their loyalty is to Israel, not to America.

Spot on their Joe. Just look at the architects behind the Iraq invasion and what did that achieve?

[arjunadawn]

 

There IS no credible mediator. Neither side trusts the USA with President Obama in power.

UG,

Is there not a thread anywhere, where you don't denounce Obama & blame him for something?

I can't remember who you blamed for sHit before he came along but these days your like a broken down record.

There are people in this world that didn't trust American administrations for decades before Obama was even a wad in his old mans sack.

There are other people in this world that could mediate outside the USA, problem is the parties involved need the desire for mediation instead of KILL Mode.

 

 

I rarely invoke my palpable disdain for Obama et al, but I will do so now. There has been skepticism of the US from Mid East parties all along; less Israel. However, since Carter (Blood of Abraham) inroads were made to gain credibility traction with local arabs. The US had variable credibility before Obama. The US has virtually no credibility anywhere on earth now. This is hardly debatable.That I assert Obama is anti-Israel and pro- local arab is a sentiment generally shared throughout the muslim world; notwithstanding that arabs wish he was doing more right now. It is hardly necessary for me to cite examples, the media are full of numerous examples that reflect the product of Obama et al foreign policy.

 

While I generally remain focused on various threads, or try, I too see the Obama et al meddling behind so much misery currently in the world. Even in chaos theory you could hardly explain such consistent (cui bono), thematic foreign policy failures unless there was a degree of intention or design. So, cast me with Ulysses G as well! Historians could later label this chapter of our history as "Marching toward Madness." "How did they not realize?" a student might ask, while receiving classroom instruction in some cave.
 

[Ulysses G.]

 

There IS no credible mediator. Neither side trusts the USA with President Obama in power.

 

Only one side trusts the USA, and that's because they have America by the short and curlies.

 

See my post in the other thread about how the US immigration bill to solve the current crisis strangely includes some money for Iron Dome.

 

If Israel stopped using its seditious influence to get financial and political support from everyone else, it would collapse in a matter of years.

But then of course, the threat of the nuclear button would rear its ugly head, and that is the gun it has pointed at every Western leaders head.

 

 

You have a bad habit of commenting on things that you know almost nothing about.

 

If you really think that Israel trusts Obama, you are delusional.

 

The immigration bill is a political trick by the democrats to try to force the republicans into voting for a bill that they don't like. Both sides agree on the funds for Iron Dome.

 

Israel's GOP is 250 billion per year and the USA provides them 3 billion in funding which they use to buy military supplies in America. The USA loses almost nothing on the deal and Israel could easily survive without it. Claiming that they would "collapse" just shows exactly how little you know. .

[joepublic]

 

 

There IS no credible mediator. Neither side trusts the USA with President Obama in power.

UG,

Is there not a thread anywhere, where you don't denounce Obama & blame him for something?

 

Why don't you address what I actually said? Is there something there that is not true?  He is the president right now. Do you really think that either side trusts him?  Are you folks going to blame this one on Bush too?    

 

 

Because of some feeble criticism of Neta-Nut-Job by Obama, the Zionists have made Obama a target. Don't ask Ulysses why - he does not know either - its just part of the Zionist playbook he has been given.

 

The truth is that Obama has been as compliant as any other US President when it comes to blindly supporting Isreal. Heck, he just gave the IDF new supplies of weapons to continue the blood sport of killing women and children, and bombing schools and hospitals. Instead of being grateful, the Zionist keep complaining. 

[Ulysses G.]

Their loyalty is to Israel, not to America.

 

We get it. Blame the JEWS. 

[Jean Pierre Jacquot]

Arrest the Israel government heads and put them before a war tribunal. They have been killing thousands of innocent lifes and are responsible for the plight of the Palestinians. They are on the equal level like all the other extremists terrorists. No need to negotiate with these criminals!

[Jingthing]

 

Their loyalty is to Israel, not to America.

 

We get it. Blame the JEWS. 

 

Yep, and using CLASSIC antisemitic memes as well. 

 

http://www.european-forum-on-antisemitism.org/working-definition-of-antisemitism/english/

• Accusing Jewish citizens of being more loyal to Israel, or to the alleged priorities of Jews worldwide, than to the interests of their own nations.

   

   

[Jay Sata]

If you look at any chat room there is a strong Zionist lobby who's job is to peddle the same old rhetoric.

The same technique is used in the USA by the National Rifle Association who defend the right for all and sundry to own guns despite regular massacres by nut cases.

[coma]

What is needed it a total ceasation of support for Israel until they stop the onslaught of Palestinians' withdraw out of and end the blockade of Gaza. Mediators are useless until this occours. However we still have clowns trying to stoke the fire from the otherside of the planet.

"Meanwhile, the US Congress approved $US225 million ($A243 million) on Friday to restock the Iron Dome systems with interceptor missiles. The measure awaits Obama's signature".

[Jingthing]

If you look at any chat room there is a strong Zionist lobby who's job is to peddle the same old rhetoric.

Should antisemitic rhetoric not be called out?

[Jean Pierre Jacquot]

 

Their loyalty is to Israel, not to America.

 

We get it. Blame the JEWS. 

 

 

We could certainly do that. As you know well american politics is very influenced by what the powerful american jews are dictating and in Israel it is certainly the Jewish population (at least the extreme zionists) who are to blame for the murder of the palestinians.

Of course we have to blame as well Hamas and blame the non-unified Arab countries who seemingly couldn't care less for their palestinian brothers being screwed by the crazy Israelis. And plenty of others to blame too. But certainly the Jews have to take their blame for what is going on at the moment.

[Ulysses G.]

 

 

 

There IS no credible mediator. Neither side trusts the USA with President Obama in power.

UG,

Is there not a thread anywhere, where you don't denounce Obama & blame him for something?

 

Why don't you address what I actually said? Is there something there that is not true?  He is the president right now. Do you really think that either side trusts him?  Are you folks going to blame this one on Bush too?    

 

 

Because of some feeble criticism of Neta-Nut-Job by Obama, the Zionists have made Obama a target. Don't ask Ulysses why - he does not know either - its just part of the Zionist playbook he has been given.

 

The truth is that Obama has been as compliant as any other US President when it comes to blindly supporting Isreal. Heck, he just gave the IDF new supplies of weapons to continue the blood sport of killing women and children, and bombing schools and hospitals. Instead of being grateful, the Zionist keep complaining. 

 

 

 

Do you - and others like you - really think that any rational personal  who reads these dishonest, hate-filled rants is convinced by anything that you have to say? Thanks for being completely honest. It is the Spinmeisters who pretend to be "neutral" who bother me..

[Jay Sata]

What is needed it a total ceasation of support for Israel until they stop the onslaught of Palestinians' withdraw out of and end the blockade of Gaza. Mediators are useless until this occours. However we still have clowns trying to stoke the fire from the otherside of the planet.

"Meanwhile, the US Congress approved $US225 million ($A243 million) on Friday to restock the Iron Dome systems with interceptor missiles. The measure awaits Obama's signature".

It worked in South Africa and in the end it will work with Israel.

In the UK the CoOp supermarkets no longer stock West Bank products and Tesco, the UKs largest supermarket chain, says it will no longer sell products originating from the West Bank, starting this September.

[dexterm]

I’ll be the mediator. I’ll have peace there in 12 months...

 

What if on 12^th June Israeli had chosen the diplomatic rather than military option?

 

...when the 3 Israeli teens were kidnapped and murdered, police had launched a regular homicide investigation, as they did when the Israeli Arab boy was kidnapped and burnt to death ...they had 2 suspect in mind already on day one, because they bulldozed part of their homes..

 

...at the same time with the rockets reduced to a trickle (2 in 2 weeks), Israel had turned to the new unity PA/Hamas government, and said “Look, if no more rockets fall in the next month, we will ease the Gaza blockade allowing an increase in XYZ goods. If no more rockets fall over the next 3 months, we will ease the blockade further and release some Palestinian prisoners. If no more rockets fall over the next 6 months, we will release more prisoners, ease the blockade further and sit down to discuss peace without preconditions; may be a long haul, but lets make a start. If no more rockets fall over the next 12 months, we will lift the blockade completely, but reserve the right to inspect goods entering Gaza.”

 

..and 1600 Palestinians and 63 young Israeli soldiers would have been sitting down for a meal with their families and loved ones on a peaceful, balmy Mediterranean summer's evening.

 

Shalom.