Ukraine crisis: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions

[F430murci]

Putin should suck it up and close the natgas down. Let the euro's and ukrainians have a nice freezing winter....

And shut off any Palladium to. It's going to stink without catalytic converters for the diesel trucks in over regulated europe.

No flying over russian teritory or ten fold increase in price.

With Russia's economy in recession, it's the last thing he needs to do. The oligarchs are so far supportive of Putin. Push them too far, and things could get messy for him. They don't like losing money, which is what will happen if this all goes too far.

Sanctions are a no-win game. Everybody loses.

No one actually knows if Oligarchs support Putin or are becoming increasingly frustrated. Many oligarchs that in the past opposed Putin were jailed if they refused to withdraw from politics or voiced political opposition. Open opposition is not a healthy proposition even for the oligarchs.

RE: Russia export/economy

Gotta love the humorous, wonderful advice as to what Russia should do to teach the big bad West a lesson. Do you guys even think through what you type????? Let's exmine economic impact to Russia for a reduction in just oil export dollars.

Putin and the oligarchs are terrified of US driving oil prices down just $10 per barrel which would cause $40 bn in losses to Russia. US could decrease price $10 to $12 through release of 500,000 reserve barrells a day. Price could be cut to $85 with an increase in production causing $80 to $100 bn in export losses to Russia.

Russia only has $505 bn in total exports, compared to US's $ 1.6 trillion. Russia will be bankrupted and in thrown into depression by $40 to $80 bn in losses caused by a mere $10 to $20 decrease in oil prices.

Then we have the rocket scientists declaring that Russia could just turn off oil exports to teach the big bad West a lesson. Yep, that will show them. Russia will lose $300 to $350 bn of its total export revenue and about 15% of it entire GDP. Great advise, except you guys will have to create a new term for the resulting economic impact of your wonderful suggestions because "depression" ust would not do it justice.

Russian oil is cheap. Just like it's gas that it just set up a deal with China for under market prices. The ten dollar drop in oil will pop the subprime shale oil bubble in the US mostly.

Funny how you come out and admit that the US manipulates world commodity prices to whatever it wants that day.

Haha, the zerohedge guy steps in. You above post about Europe quaking in boots over Russian sanctions. Love it!

US will be just fine. Let's only hope that Putun does not become desparate to save face and raid Ukraine with its escalating troop build-up since his rebel-boys are losing ground in the Ukraine. That will be devastating to the common Russian who for whom I actually sympathize.

RE: Putin's dilemma in finding a sanctiion

I have to even question Putin's intelligence at this point. He clearly had to search hard for what he could do sanction wise that would cause the least harm to Russia's fragile economy.

Food??? This ban will hurt Russian consumers and Russian economy more than anyone else, but Putin's options are limited.

As usual, the biggest losers of Putin's decision will be Russian consumers, who will now pay more for their food.

. . . and then we have Magnit, Russia's largest food supplier, down 4% today.

[khunken]

No, the clue is in the piece you quoted.

The EU offered Yanukovich a deal which he initially accepted but Russia then offered him a better one (questionable) which he accepted. Protestors then took to the streets (peaceful ones and very violent ones described as fascists). Shooting and killing broke out from both sides and Mr Y started losing his grip. Note that the EU & US supported the protestors which is the likely start of the violent side of the whole Ukrainian crisis.

Yanukovich stepped down and the protest side took over and appointed a local oligarch as president (there was some sort of 'vote' but did not include all of Ukraine). The head of the CIA visited Kiev, ominously.

By now Russia had had enough and had it's allies in Crimea organise an election which they easily won. It should be noted that the election was mostly free and fair, just done in a hurry.

There is no doubt that Russia supports the ethnic Russians in Ukraine but there has been so much finger-pointing (particularly from the US) about how far that support goes.

The real problem now is, if Russia & (particularly) the separatists are pushed into a corner, that Russia will invade. Then the civil war (which is what it is) will be turned on its head and escalate even more if NATO, the US or the EU start pouring more weapons into the country.

It's really time for both sides to take a step back and let cool heads prevail. Those would be Merkel and the Dutch PM who are heavily affected for different reasons.

Ok. Maybe the EU and the US supported protesters, but did they have boots on the ground? Like what Russia did in the Crimea and is doing now? The answer is NO. Putin admits he had troops on the ground during the Crimea invasion. No arguing that. And he'll eventually admit he had troops in the current conflict. It's a widely known "secret".

Election done in a hurry in the Crimea? That's an understatement. The entire world, other than Russia, agrees it was a sham. Come on. Hardly free and fair. Hard to have a fair election at the end of a gun.

How can Russia invade a sovereign country? That's a violation of international law. Right? Time for Putin to step back. He's the one one with up to 40,000 troops on the border with Ukraine. No other country is doing this. Pretty one sided, eh?

The Dutch PM has a very good reason to be upset with the Russians. They should be ashamed at what happened. And cooperating fully. Which they are not.

Boots on the ground is obfuscation. No boots needed in Syria nor Libya (except for a 'few' British 'military advisers')

A 'well known secret'? AKA finger-pointing. The election in Crimea was not a 'sham'. At least 60% of Crimeans are ethnic Russian and it 's just more finger-pointing.

How can Russia invade Ukraine? Easy - just by force like Iraq, Afghanistan and Gaza with (unfortunately) more justification as it's ethnic Russians in the firing line.

NATO has previously mobilised a ground force as well - in Poland (& possibly Hungary). They are about the worst of those involved in the conflict. And the CIA? What are they up to with their usual dirty tricks after the head visited Kiev a while ago?

The Dutch has no reason whatsoever to be upset with Russia. His beef is with the separatists. You've gone back to the 'it's all Russia's fault' biased posting unfortunately.

[F430murci]

^^ post 24

The dealings with the EU are not about oil - it's gas. As is the huge deal recently signed between Russia & China. The oil price is a different issue to the topic and there's far more to it than an unlikely short-term significant drop in the oil price.

As an annex to my previous post, I had a look at the link provided by lovetotravel and in it there is a link to a piece from Henry Kissinger about the Ukraine. While not a Kissinger fan, what he says is about 90% correct. Given his stature in the US, he will surely be listened to and help to reduce the ball game being played out with Ukraine as the ball. But only if cooler heads prevail.

Oops, yes gas could cause a disruption, but one for which could be compensated albeit not seamlessly. Trust me, there is already measures in the works to relieve a few countries of their dependence on Russia for gas or anything because of this very situation. The more time that goes by, the less disruption Putin can cause.

But again, the same principle holds true. Russia economy cannot afford the impact of loss export revenues related to gas. Such losses will bankrupt its fragile economy. About to get out car for work day so don't have time to look up numbers, but what are gas export revenues from Russia to EU and what % of Russia GDP is related to gas exports. Any losses approaching $ 30 to $ 50 bn or representing 8% or more of Russia's GDP would push Russia over the edge, not to mention backlash that would follow.

[rickirs]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Watch the commodity markets! Russia/Ukraine export significant quantities of Iron, steel, Aluminium, Copper, Nickel.

This could get a lot worse before it gets anywhere near better.

The post by SOTIRIOS is close to the mark. Putin may well be in this up to his neck, but without the undoubted goading by certain Western countries this situation would not exist. The West is playing a dangerous game with the Ukraine. If rumours prove correct and Russia closes Siberian airspace to all European/US traffic flying to Asia etc then that would prove a real issue. Costs of travel will soar, journey times will increase significantly. The West will then impose sanctions on Russian air traffic and boom, get ready to build the wall again and watch for the defence corporations in the US and Europe having the party of the century. It is ALL about money and resources!!!

Watch the commodities market is right. If Russia reneges on its commodity contracts with the West, it will find itself in an oversupply of inventory. And you can be sure countries like China and Japan that it will export to will drive Russian commodity prices down, assuming those countries aren't already fully contracturally committed to other suppliers. If the latter becomes the case, Russia may find its cost of production greater than its realized commodity prices and go into a massive economic loss position.

[Basil B]

Well as the UK speeds up to extract "fracking" gas, I suppose there will disrupted by "rent'a'loony", well at least we know who will be funding them.

[khunken]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Watch the commodity markets! Russia/Ukraine export significant quantities of Iron, steel, Aluminium, Copper, Nickel.

This could get a lot worse before it gets anywhere near better.

The post by SOTIRIOS is close to the mark. Putin may well be in this up to his neck, but without the undoubted goading by certain Western countries this situation would not exist. The West is playing a dangerous game with the Ukraine. If rumours prove correct and Russia closes Siberian airspace to all European/US traffic flying to Asia etc then that would prove a real issue. Costs of travel will soar, journey times will increase significantly. The West will then impose sanctions on Russian air traffic and boom, get ready to build the wall again and watch for the defence corporations in the US and Europe having the party of the century. It is ALL about money and resources!!!

Watch the commodities market is right. If Russia reneges on its commodity contracts with the West, it will find itself in an oversupply of inventory. And you can be sure countries like China and Japan that it will export to will drive Russian commodity prices down, assuming those countries aren't already fully contracturally committed to other suppliers. If the latter becomes the case, Russia may find its cost of production greater than its realized commodity prices and go into a massive economic loss position.

You don't know what you're writing about (not for the first time as other threads can reveal).

Japan has absolutely no commodities to export - it imports just about all its raw materials. There are many commodities that China is very short of too and is a commodity importer. Russia controls the markets in some rare commodities used in everyday gadgets like mobile phones and tablets and is a huge gas & oil exporter, some of which goes to China already.

In any case the sanctions haven't yet been finalised. Overflights will certainly his western airlines far more than the few Russian ones that fly abroad. It has the biggest of all 'weapons' - the gas pipeline into some EU countries especially Germany. Whether it will come to using the ultimate sanction is unclear but if things turn into an all out sanctions war it very likely will.

Europe is being totally stupid. They are being pushed more and more by the US into a can't win situation which will hurt their businesses and consumers while the US is hardly affected at all.

The US is not being very clever either as it is just pushing Russia closer and closer to China. The ffing cold war all over again.

[3NUMBAS]

russian ban on using their airspace now

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has said the country is considering a ban on flights from Europe and the US to Asia.

Speaking at a government meeting he said the "serious measure" of blocking Russian airspace was a response to sanctions that recently stopped Dobrolyot, one of Russia's low-cost airlines, from flying.

It comes as Mr Medvedev confirmed the country has banned transit flights for Ukrainian airlines via its territory.

If Russia goes ahead with the ban on Western airlines, passengers could see ticket prices rise because carriers would be forced to use more fuel to reach destinations using longer flight paths.

The move could hit major European airlines such as British Airways, Lufthansa and Air France (Paris: FR0000031122 - news) , leaving them faced with multibillion-pound losses.

Meanwhile Russia announced further details of its sanctions on food and agricultural products from the West.

Mr Medvedev said an immediate ban has been put on fruit, vegetable, meat, fish, milk and dairy imports from the European Union, United States, Australia, Canada and Norway.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-threatens-eu-us-flight-110835344.html

[GentlemanJim]

russian ban on using their airspace now

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has said the country is considering a ban on flights from Europe and the US to Asia.

Speaking at a government meeting he said the "serious measure" of blocking Russian airspace was a response to sanctions that recently stopped Dobrolyot, one of Russia's low-cost airlines, from flying.

It comes as Mr Medvedev confirmed the country has banned transit flights for Ukrainian airlines via its territory.

If Russia goes ahead with the ban on Western airlines, passengers could see ticket prices rise because carriers would be forced to use more fuel to reach destinations using longer flight paths.

The move could hit major European airlines such as British Airways, Lufthansa and Air France (Paris: FR0000031122 - news) , leaving them faced with multibillion-pound losses.

Meanwhile Russia announced further details of its sanctions on food and agricultural products from the West.

Mr Medvedev said an immediate ban has been put on fruit, vegetable, meat, fish, milk and dairy imports from the European Union, United States, Australia, Canada and Norway.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-threatens-eu-us-flight-110835344.html

Boom!

Time for escalation now! Cold War 2 here we come. The problem is that historically the Russians have a lot of practice at queuing for cabbages. I guess the breaking point may be when MaccyD and BurgerKing close their stores in Moscow and St Petersburg. How long will the Russian last before he decides he doesn't want to return to the old days? It could be getting serious!

[F430murci]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Watch the commodity markets! Russia/Ukraine export significant quantities of Iron, steel, Aluminium, Copper, Nickel.

This could get a lot worse before it gets anywhere near better.

The post by SOTIRIOS is close to the mark. Putin may well be in this up to his neck, but without the undoubted goading by certain Western countries this situation would not exist. The West is playing a dangerous game with the Ukraine. If rumours prove correct and Russia closes Siberian airspace to all European/US traffic flying to Asia etc then that would prove a real issue. Costs of travel will soar, journey times will increase significantly. The West will then impose sanctions on Russian air traffic and boom, get ready to build the wall again and watch for the defence corporations in the US and Europe having the party of the century. It is ALL about money and resources!!!

Watch the commodities market is right. If Russia reneges on its commodity contracts with the West, it will find itself in an oversupply of inventory. And you can be sure countries like China and Japan that it will export to will drive Russian commodity prices down, assuming those countries aren't already fully contracturally committed to other suppliers. If the latter becomes the case, Russia may find its cost of production greater than its realized commodity prices and go into a massive economic loss position.

You don't know what you're writing about (not for the first time as other threads can reveal).

Japan has absolutely no commodities to export - it imports just about all its raw materials. There are many commodities that China is very short of too and is a commodity importer. Russia controls the markets in some rare commodities used in everyday gadgets like mobile phones and tablets and is a huge gas & oil exporter, some of which goes to China already.

In any case the sanctions haven't yet been finalised. Overflights will certainly his western airlines far more than the few Russian ones that fly abroad. It has the biggest of all 'weapons' - the gas pipeline into some EU countries especially Germany. Whether it will come to using the ultimate sanction is unclear but if things turn into an all out sanctions war it very likely will.

Europe is being totally stupid. They are being pushed more and more by the US into a can't win situation which will hurt their businesses and consumers while the US is hardly affected at all.

The US is not being very clever either as it is just pushing Russia closer and closer to China. The ffing cold war all over again.

The hilarious part is that Russian cannot even tell the truth to Russian's about the food ban because Putin knows he is harming the common Russian and he has to use deception (which you apparently buy into hook line and sinker) even as to matters such as the current food ban. Putin is telling Russian that he is banning the food because the food if TOXIC. Huh???

What a wus Putin is. Grow some and at least tell the truth as to why you are banning the food. Too funny, but very sad at the same time.

RE: Cold war and pushing Russia toward China

China cannot function without the US and EU. Do you think Russia will magically compensate/make up for the loss of a trillion dollars in Chinese experts if China severs its ties with the US, EU, South Korea, Japan and Australia. The US alone imports $ 350 bn from China. Russia can barely afford to import $ 50 bn as it stands now and the costs of China's goods are going to be out of Russia consumer's price range if China cannot keep its currency undervalued by buying US treasuries/securities.

No one wants a cold war, but the rest of the world can actually deal with it. Russia cannot and China has way too much to lose, like its entire economy, by severing ties with US and EU.

[Harsh Jones]

what did the EU expect to happen?

Draghi Outlook Menaced by Putin as Ukraine Crisis Bites

The crisis in eastern Europe is showing signs of disrupting Mario Draghis economic outlook.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/draghi-outlook-menaced-by-putin-as-ukraine-crisis-bites.html

From yournewsline.wordpress.com

Stop Putin Coalition Cracking: Greece Laments Blind Obedience To Cold War Strategies Of Brussels And Washington

It was all fun and games while the grand western Pariah Putin is evil alliance was calling the shots, lobbing one sanctions after another, and Russia was quietly sitting there and taking it all. But once Europe realized that suddenly its food exporters are about to see their revenues plunge (and ostensibly lead to even more domestic deflation as all the excess produce floods domestic markets) and lead to gaping trade deficits, suddenly cries that Putins retaliation is unfair have filled the air.

[F430murci]

Almost comical. Gotta love the toxic food and regulation excuses, especially relating to US food, given I have seen and experienced Russia food quality first hand . . .

The over flight ban threat is also an interesting proposition. Aeroflot had net profits of $ 200 million in 2013. An over flight ban would result in Aeroflot losing $ 300 million in fees from other airlines for rights to fly over Siberia. $ 300 million cash flow loss for a company generating $ 200 million a year in net profits sounds like an unattractive idea for Aeroflot. No wonder Putin chose food ban over an over-flight ban.

Sometimes it does the mind good to actually look at objective data behind the rhetoric.

---------

But the worst-affected stock was that of Russia’s OAO Aeroflot, which fell 6.0% in Moscow. Under current arrangements, Aeroflot gets some $300 million a year in fees from other airlines for the right to overfly Siberia, and the airline has rarely turned a profit when that money is stripped out of its financial statements."

Vedomosti quoted the spokeswoman of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev as saying that the government had no plans to discuss any such measure at the moment, but noted that “any unfriendly measures by the E.U., including in the area of air transport, will be studied and will not remain unanswered.”

http://fortune.com/2014/08/05/russia-may-hit-back-at-e-u-with-siberia-overflight-ban/

Moscow has already retaliated to last week’s measures, banning imports of almost all fruit and vegetables from Poland, one of the most hard-line E.U. states in its attitude to Russia. In recent months, it has also banned imports of a wide range of agricultural products from Ukraine, in a move apparently aimed at punishing the government in Kyiv for its choice to pursue economic integration with Europe rather than Russia.

Russia has presented its measures as public health issues, citing violations of veterinary or other food safety regulations. Under President Vladimir Putin, the country has built up a track record of using its food or environmental regulators to exert pressure on countries with which it has political disputes.

http://fortune.com/2014/08/05/russia-may-hit-back-at-e-u-with-siberia-overflight-ban/

[F430murci]

what did the EU expect to happen?

Draghi Outlook Menaced by Putin as Ukraine Crisis Bites

The crisis in eastern Europe is showing signs of disrupting Mario Draghis economic outlook.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/draghi-outlook-menaced-by-putin-as-ukraine-crisis-bites.html

From yournewsline.wordpress.com

Stop Putin Coalition Cracking: Greece Laments Blind Obedience To Cold War Strategies Of Brussels And Washington

It was all fun and games while the grand western Pariah Putin is evil alliance was calling the shots, lobbing one sanctions after another, and Russia was quietly sitting there and taking it all. But once Europe realized that suddenly its food exporters are about to see their revenues plunge (and ostensibly lead to even more domestic deflation as all the excess produce floods domestic markets) and lead to gaping trade deficits, suddenly cries that Putins retaliation is unfair have filled the air.

Yes, it will cause some lumps for US and EU countries, but not nearly as bad for US and EU as for Russia. BofA/ML and Citi analyst forecasting that this will add 1.5 to 1.9 % to Russia's current inflation of 7.5%. US, EU and everyone has sought to diversify and seek back-ups for Russia due to Russia's current economy and inconsistent geopolitical position within the world economy. Yeah, countries will still use Russian goods where convenient, but the reliance will no longer be there and there will be back up plans for seamless transitions given occurrences such as these.

You operate in the delusion that Russia's shaky and somewhat limited and small economy has a large macroeconomic impact on other economies of the world. It just doesn't and never has. Many investors, including myself, made a lot of money in Russia as an emerging and growing market, but we have all long since hedged and pulled out given instability in the region and Russia's recent economic woes.

Below is the general prevailing view and grounded in reality.

----------

Past issues with Russia have taught some lessons “and that’s why you’re seeing the market diversify and demand growing worldwide for Georgia poultry.”

. . .

The council reported that Russia is the second-leading market for U.S. chicken, but the country has expanded its domestic poultry industry in recent years so that the country accounts for about 7 percent of total U.S. poultry export volume compared to as much as 40 percent in the mid-1990s.

“As a result, we do not expect that a Russian ban on U.S. poultry imports will have a great impact on our industry,” a statement from the council reads. “The biggest impact, we believe, will be on Russian citizens who will be burdened by higher prices for all food products, especially meat and poultry. The price of poultry in Russia is already rising and has recently been increasing at a rate of 2 percent to 3 percent per week.”

. . .

Michael Wheeler, Hall County’s extension agent, said Mexico was the U.S. largest market for broilers in 2013, far surpassing Russia.

“I think that (companies) continuing to develop that market … will help offset the loss to Russia,” he said.

http://www.gainesvilletimes.com/section/6/article/103018/

Edited August 7, 2014 by F430murci

[Harsh Jones]

what did the EU expect to happen?

Draghi Outlook Menaced by Putin as Ukraine Crisis Bites

The crisis in eastern Europe is showing signs of disrupting Mario Draghis economic outlook.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/draghi-outlook-menaced-by-putin-as-ukraine-crisis-bites.html

From yournewsline.wordpress.com

Stop Putin Coalition Cracking: Greece Laments Blind Obedience To Cold War Strategies Of Brussels And Washington

It was all fun and games while the grand western Pariah Putin is evil alliance was calling the shots, lobbing one sanctions after another, and Russia was quietly sitting there and taking it all. But once Europe realized that suddenly its food exporters are about to see their revenues plunge (and ostensibly lead to even more domestic deflation as all the excess produce floods domestic markets) and lead to gaping trade deficits, suddenly cries that Putins retaliation is unfair have filled the air.

Yes, it will cause some lumps for US and EU countries, but not nearly as bad for US and EU as for Russia. BofA/ML and Citi analyst forecasting that this will add 1.5 to 1.9 % to Russia's current inflation of 7.5%. US, EU and everyone has sought to diversify and seek back-ups for Russia due to Russia's current economy and inconsistent geopolitical position within the world economy. Yeah, countries will still use Russian goods where convenient, but the reliance will no longer be there and there will be back up plans for seamless transitions given occurrences such as these.

You operate in the delusion that Russia's shaky and somewhat limited and small economy has a large macroeconomic impact on other economies of the world. It just doesn't and never has. Many investors, including myself, made a lot of money in Russia as an emerging and growing market, but we have all long since hedged and pulled out given instability in the region and Russia's recent economic woes.

Below is the general prevailing view and grounded in reality.

----------

Past issues with Russia have taught some lessons and thats why youre seeing the market diversify and demand growing worldwide for Georgia poultry.

. . .

The council reported that Russia is the second-leading market for U.S. chicken, but the country has expanded its domestic poultry industry in recent years so that the country accounts for about 7 percent of total U.S. poultry export volume compared to as much as 40 percent in the mid-1990s.

As a result, we do not expect that a Russian ban on U.S. poultry imports will have a great impact on our industry, a statement from the council reads. The biggest impact, we believe, will be on Russian citizens who will be burdened by higher prices for all food products, especially meat and poultry. The price of poultry in Russia is already rising and has recently been increasing at a rate of 2 percent to 3 percent per week.

. . .

Michael Wheeler, Hall Countys extension agent, said Mexico was the U.S. largest market for broilers in 2013, far surpassing Russia.

I think that (companies) continuing to develop that market will help offset the loss to Russia, he said.

http://www.gainesvilletimes.com/section/6/article/103018/

Sanctions are a zero sum game. Russia will add till it equals up.

Russia is a creditor nation with no net debt and the 5th most forex reserves in the world. They have leverage. #5 in the world gives Putin some economic nuclear options

[GentlemanJim]

what did the EU expect to happen?

Draghi Outlook Menaced by Putin as Ukraine Crisis Bites

The crisis in eastern Europe is showing signs of disrupting Mario Draghis economic outlook.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/draghi-outlook-menaced-by-putin-as-ukraine-crisis-bites.html

From yournewsline.wordpress.com

Stop Putin Coalition Cracking: Greece Laments Blind Obedience To Cold War Strategies Of Brussels And Washington

It was all fun and games while the grand western Pariah Putin is evil alliance was calling the shots, lobbing one sanctions after another, and Russia was quietly sitting there and taking it all. But once Europe realized that suddenly its food exporters are about to see their revenues plunge (and ostensibly lead to even more domestic deflation as all the excess produce floods domestic markets) and lead to gaping trade deficits, suddenly cries that Putins retaliation is unfair have filled the air.

Yes, it will cause some lumps for US and EU countries, but not nearly as bad for US and EU as for Russia. BofA/ML and Citi analyst forecasting that this will add 1.5 to 1.9 % to Russia's current inflation of 7.5%. US, EU and everyone has sought to diversify and seek back-ups for Russia due to Russia's current economy and inconsistent geopolitical position within the world economy. Yeah, countries will still use Russian goods where convenient, but the reliance will no longer be there and there will be back up plans for seamless transitions given occurrences such as these.

You operate in the delusion that Russia's shaky and somewhat limited and small economy has a large macroeconomic impact on other economies of the world. It just doesn't and never has. Many investors, including myself, made a lot of money in Russia as an emerging and growing market, but we have all long since hedged and pulled out given instability in the region and Russia's recent economic woes.

Below is the general prevailing view and grounded in reality.

----------

Past issues with Russia have taught some lessons “and that’s why you’re seeing the market diversify and demand growing worldwide for Georgia poultry.”

. . .

The council reported that Russia is the second-leading market for U.S. chicken, but the country has expanded its domestic poultry industry in recent years so that the country accounts for about 7 percent of total U.S. poultry export volume compared to as much as 40 percent in the mid-1990s.

“As a result, we do not expect that a Russian ban on U.S. poultry imports will have a great impact on our industry,” a statement from the council reads. “The biggest impact, we believe, will be on Russian citizens who will be burdened by higher prices for all food products, especially meat and poultry. The price of poultry in Russia is already rising and has recently been increasing at a rate of 2 percent to 3 percent per week.”

. . .

Michael Wheeler, Hall County’s extension agent, said Mexico was the U.S. largest market for broilers in 2013, far surpassing Russia.

“I think that (companies) continuing to develop that market … will help offset the loss to Russia,” he said.

http://www.gainesvilletimes.com/section/6/article/103018/

Thanks for the great commentary.

How does Putin imagine he will get away with disinformation to the population when the internet will provide the news and social media will expose the lie?

So when and where to invest in Russia the next time ?

However it all pans out it seems it can only go one way and that is South. I don't like the thought of a desperate Putin who has miscalculated in a desperate Russian economy while he has his fingers on all those nukes.

Proofreader

A valid point, and I doubt you will get an answer. Googling the atrocities being carried out by Syrian rebels in OUR name displays videos and photos that make the Russian rebels look like The Salvation Army!

[Harsh Jones]

.......If you want to know what The Ukraine Situation is all about....read this....

http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=12186

...and stop painting Russia as the bad guy.....

...scum cause wars and kill people.....for profit.......

...and make up stories and point fingers....to get their way......

Yes let's not blame Russia for supporting rebels in another country's civil way by sending materiel and troops! Poor innocent Russia! Getting blamed for everything boohoo!

How come that the US supporting rebels in Syria (not even Americans!) in another part of the world is a good guy, while Russia supporting ethnic Russians(!) in the neighbouring Ukraine is an evil one? A case of selective vision I guess.

Putin poses a direct threat to the petrodollar. The petrodollar is what finances the US military.

I used to support the US. But now I know what their interests have been all along

[Harsh Jones]

Do people realize on here that they are supporting all out war ?

This is serious.

Edited August 7, 2014 by Harsh Jones

[Proofreader]

F430murci

The hilarious part is that Russian cannot even tell the truth to Russian's about the food ban because Putin knows he is harming the common Russian and he has to use deception (which you apparently buy into hook line and sinker) even as to matters such as the current food ban. Putin is telling Russian that he is banning the food because the food if TOXIC. Huh???

When and where did Putin say that? Proof-link please. Even if he did (which I doubt because there is a Consumer Protection Committee responsible for such bans and restrictions) every Russian knows what it actually means. They are not stupid you know.

Basil B

Putin will not last long when Russians return to the bad old days of queuing for hours for a few cabbage leaves.

Don’t expect empty shelves in Russia any time soon. They will easily buy what they need from the countries outside the US-EU block and partially switch their purchases from imports to home produced goods. It could as well be a good chance for Russians to boost their own agriculture. Ah yes, some of them will indeed miss escargot, foie gras and Munster Gerome.

[Publicus]

The prodigal son is always welcomed home after gaining some real life experience.

Putin and pals have for the first time since World War II used military force to change the borders of a sovereign country in Europe/Eurasia.

Putin assures thus that Russia can never be a superpower.

Bombast does not a superpower make. Russia needs an advanced economy, a culture and life philosophy many people around the world are attracted to, private and civil sectors that develop the country's natural and human resources among other vital attributes alien to Russia.

Russians are furious about Putin's attack against them by stopping specified food imports. As the fifth largest food importer of the world, Russia can ill afford to stop certain food imports from the EU, U.S., Canada, Australia, Norway. Putin's focus on food/agriculture does strike at the heart of a most sensitive sector in anyone's economy, to include his own.

And I with a few others are still waiting for Putin and pals to start demanding payment for oil and gas in Rubles, RMB or even gold.

Petrodollars?

https://theconversation.com/blown-out-of-the-sky-putin-and-russias-strategic-trilemma-30059

http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-further-from-superpower-status-than-when-putin-came-to-power/

Edited August 7, 2014 by Publicus

[Harsh Jones]

The prodigal son is always welcomed home after gaining some real life experience.

Putin and pals have for the first time since World War II used military force to change the borders of a sovereign country in Europe/Eurasia.

Putin assures thus that Russia can never be a superpower.

Bombast does not a superpower make. Russia needs an advanced economy, a culture and life philosophy many people around the world are attracted to, private and civil sectors that develop the country's natural and human resources among other vital attributes alien to Russia.

Russians are furious about Putin's attack against them by stopping specified food imports. As the fifth largest food importer of the world, Russia can ill afford to stop certain food imports from the EU, U.S., Canada, Australia, Norway. Putin's focus on food/agriculture does strike at the heart of a most sensitive sector in anyone's economy, to include his own.

And I with a few others are still waiting for Putin and pals to start demanding payment for oil and gas in Rubles, RMB or even gold.

https://theconversation.com/blown-out-of-the-sky-putin-and-russias-strategic-trilemma-30059

http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-further-from-superpower-status-than-when-putin-came-to-power/

So you truely think that this proxy war in Ukraine is simply because Putin is a bad man ? That wasn't elected democratically enough ?

[Publicus]

The prodigal son is always welcomed home after gaining some real life experience.

Putin and pals have for the first time since World War II used military force to change the borders of a sovereign country in Europe/Eurasia.

Putin assures thus that Russia can never be a superpower.

Bombast does not a superpower make. Russia needs an advanced economy, a culture and life philosophy many people around the world are attracted to, private and civil sectors that develop the country's natural and human resources among other vital attributes alien to Russia.

Russians are furious about Putin's attack against them by stopping specified food imports. As the fifth largest food importer of the world, Russia can ill afford to stop certain food imports from the EU, U.S., Canada, Australia, Norway. Putin's focus on food/agriculture does strike at the heart of a most sensitive sector in anyone's economy, to include his own.

And I with a few others are still waiting for Putin and pals to start demanding payment for oil and gas in Rubles, RMB or even gold.

https://theconversation.com/blown-out-of-the-sky-putin-and-russias-strategic-trilemma-30059

http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-further-from-superpower-status-than-when-putin-came-to-power/

So you truely think that this proxy war in Ukraine is simply because Putin is a bad man ? That wasn't elected democratically enough ?

The question is juvenile.

[Harsh Jones]

The prodigal son is always welcomed home after gaining some real life experience.

Putin and pals have for the first time since World War II used military force to change the borders of a sovereign country in Europe/Eurasia.

Putin assures thus that Russia can never be a superpower.

Bombast does not a superpower make. Russia needs an advanced economy, a culture and life philosophy many people around the world are attracted to, private and civil sectors that develop the country's natural and human resources among other vital attributes alien to Russia.

Russians are furious about Putin's attack against them by stopping specified food imports. As the fifth largest food importer of the world, Russia can ill afford to stop certain food imports from the EU, U.S., Canada, Australia, Norway. Putin's focus on food/agriculture does strike at the heart of a most sensitive sector in anyone's economy, to include his own.

And I with a few others are still waiting for Putin and pals to start demanding payment for oil and gas in Rubles, RMB or even gold.

https://theconversation.com/blown-out-of-the-sky-putin-and-russias-strategic-trilemma-30059

http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-further-from-superpower-status-than-when-putin-came-to-power/

So you truely think that this proxy war in Ukraine is simply because Putin is a bad man ? That wasn't elected democratically enough ?

The question is juvenile.

NATO was the one in contravention of the Budapest Memorandum. So your claims that Russia is simply on a war path for more land and resources is what is juvenile. As is your claims that the biggest oil energy companies in the world being in Russia, poses no threat to petrodollar hegemony. You went so far as to say that the US could release oil from it's strategic reserves to take down the price of oil. If Russia is of no threat to petrodollar hegemony , why would the US even consider this ?

Diplomats are trained to see things from both sides. I see very little of that going on in this thread.

[Proofreader]

[lovetotravel]

Boots on the ground is obfuscation. No boots needed in Syria nor Libya (except for a 'few' British 'military advisers')

A 'well known secret'? AKA finger-pointing. The election in Crimea was not a 'sham'. At least 60% of Crimeans are ethnic Russian and it 's just more finger-pointing.

How can Russia invade Ukraine? Easy - just by force like Iraq, Afghanistan and Gaza with (unfortunately) more justification as it's ethnic Russians in the firing line.

NATO has previously mobilised a ground force as well - in Poland (& possibly Hungary). They are about the worst of those involved in the conflict. And the CIA? What are they up to with their usual dirty tricks after the head visited Kiev a while ago?

The Dutch has no reason whatsoever to be upset with Russia. His beef is with the separatists. You've gone back to the 'it's all Russia's fault' biased posting unfortunately.

Um, separatists fully funded and supported by Russians. Yes, the Dutch are very upset:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-18/dutch-sadness-curdles-into-anger-amid-missile-blame-game.html

Dutch Sadness Turns Into Anger Amid Missile Blame Game

While it remains unclear who is responsible, with Russia and Ukraine blaming each other for the downing of the jet yesterday, Dutch anger is focusing on President Vladimir Putin. Ukraine’s state security service said it intercepted phone conversations among pro-Russian militants discussing a missile strike.

“Hopefully Putin will fall down from his throne and the world can get a better place!” Irene Hoofs, who says she lives in Singapore and was born in Amsterdam, posted on her Twitter feed. “Angry that these people make our world so dangerous.”

Putin, who has repeatedly denied Russian involvement in the fighting in Ukraine, said the government in Kiev bore responsibility because the crash wouldn’t have occurred without the current strife with separatists battling regular forces in two eastern regions of the country.

[lovetotravel]

http://money.cnn.com/2014/08/07/news/russia-europe-food/index.html?iid=Lead

Russia's ban on food imports will push prices up at home and cost Europe billions in lost exports.

Moscow retaliated against Western sanctions by banning imports of fruit, vegetables, meat, fish, milk and dairy products from the U.S., Europe, Australia, Canada and Norway. The U.S. and Europe imposed sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine crisis.

The ban is likely to hurt Russians the most as they will pay more for food, and is expected to deepen the country's economic woes. Russia relies on imports for about a quarter of its milk, dairy products and fruit, and slightly less for its supplies of meat.

......

Economists at Citi say the ban on imports could add as much as 1.9% to Russian inflation, already running at 7.5%.

"It is unlikely that Russia will be able to speedily substitute for them with exports from other destinations," said Citi's Ivan Tchakarov.

[Harsh Jones]

Boots on the ground is obfuscation. No boots needed in Syria nor Libya (except for a 'few' British 'military advisers')

A 'well known secret'? AKA finger-pointing. The election in Crimea was not a 'sham'. At least 60% of Crimeans are ethnic Russian and it 's just more finger-pointing.

How can Russia invade Ukraine? Easy - just by force like Iraq, Afghanistan and Gaza with (unfortunately) more justification as it's ethnic Russians in the firing line.

NATO has previously mobilised a ground force as well - in Poland (& possibly Hungary). They are about the worst of those involved in the conflict. And the CIA? What are they up to with their usual dirty tricks after the head visited Kiev a while ago?

The Dutch has no reason whatsoever to be upset with Russia. His beef is with the separatists. You've gone back to the 'it's all Russia's fault' biased posting unfortunately.

Um, separatists fully funded and supported by Russians. Yes, the Dutch are very upset:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-18/dutch-sadness-curdles-into-anger-amid-missile-blame-game.html

Dutch Sadness Turns Into Anger Amid Missile Blame Game

While it remains unclear who is responsible, with Russia and Ukraine blaming each other for the downing of the jet yesterday, Dutch anger is focusing on President Vladimir Putin. Ukraines state security service said it intercepted phone conversations among pro-Russian militants discussing a missile strike.

Hopefully Putin will fall down from his throne and the world can get a better place! Irene Hoofs, who says she lives in Singapore and was born in Amsterdam, posted on her Twitter feed. Angry that these people make our world so dangerous.

Putin, who has repeatedly denied Russian involvement in the fighting in Ukraine, said the government in Kiev bore responsibility because the crash wouldnt have occurred without the current strife with separatists battling regular forces in two eastern regions of the country.

I am Dutch. There are just as many people blaming the US for meddling in forign countries affairs. Which is what started it all.

[Asiantravel]

The prodigal son is always welcomed home after gaining some real life experience.

Putin and pals have for the first time since World War II used military force to change the borders of a sovereign country in Europe/Eurasia.

Putin assures thus that Russia can never be a superpower.

Bombast does not a superpower make. Russia needs an advanced economy, a culture and life philosophy many people around the world are attracted to, private and civil sectors that develop the country's natural and human resources among other vital attributes alien to Russia.

Russians are furious about Putin's attack against them by stopping specified food imports. As the fifth largest food importer of the world, Russia can ill afford to stop certain food imports from the EU, U.S., Canada, Australia, Norway. Putin's focus on food/agriculture does strike at the heart of a most sensitive sector in anyone's economy, to include his own.

And I with a few others are still waiting for Putin and pals to start demanding payment for oil and gas in Rubles, RMB or even gold.

https://theconversation.com/blown-out-of-the-sky-putin-and-russias-strategic-trilemma-30059

http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-further-from-superpower-status-than-when-putin-came-to-power/

So you truely think that this proxy war in Ukraine is simply because Putin is a bad man ? That wasn't elected democratically enough ?

The question is juvenile.

NATO was the one in contravention of the Budapest Memorandum. So your claims that Russia is simply on a war path for more land and resources is what is juvenile. As is your claims that the biggest oil energy companies in the world being in Russia, poses no threat to petrodollar hegemony. You went so far as to say that the US could release oil from it's strategic reserves to take down the price of oil. If Russia is of no threat to petrodollar hegemony , why would the US even consider this ?

Diplomats are trained to see things from both sides. I see very little of that going on in this thread.

it seemed to me things really started ratcheting up just after the announcement of the BRICS development bank - 43 percent of the world’s population, $4.4 trillion in currency reserves, and generally a healthier economic growth than Europe or the U.S

[lovetotravel]

I am Dutch. There are just as many people blaming the US for meddling in forign countries affairs. Which is what started it all.

There's a huge difference between "meddling" in foreign affairs and invading and annexing a sovergen country's territory. Huge difference. I guarantee Russia is meddling also in several countries foreign affairs. Like Syria. And let's not forget Georgia.

Don't be so one sided. This could all have been avoided easily. No invasion would equal no current crisis. Blame is fully on Putin for this one. Impossible to place blame anywhere else.

American was in the wrong for invading Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia is in the wrong for invading Ukraine.

[lovetotravel]

it seemed to me things really started ratcheting up just after the announcement of the BRICS development bank - 43 percent of the world’s population, $4.4 trillion in currency reserves, and generally a healthier economic growth than Europe or the U.S

BRICS doing well?? Not according to most. The reports I get from my investment bank suggest going light on these investments right now due to the risks.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/economy-slows-in-brics-countries-as-worries-mount-a-951453.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/07/17/what-the-new-bank-of-brics-is-all-about/

The structural disparity between China and the rest of the BRICS members (the Chinese economy being larger than the economies of all other BRICS combined) is at the heart of the matter for any BRICS institution. China’s dominant position makes coordination—in terms of operations and funding priorities—difficult to imagine. At one point, all other BRICS countries have expressed concern with Beijing’s economic policies and currency regime. Brazilian and Indian central bankers spoke out against the undervalued Yuan in 2009 and 2010, but to little effect. Ongoing trade disputes among developing countries also threaten unity. Last year WTO member states reached a deal on trade facilitation in Bali but India, among a group of developing nations, has threatened to withdraw support for the protocol over the issue of food security. A joint communiqué of BRICS trade ministers remains vague about whether BRICS countries commonly support the Bali agreement. These, along with a host of other intra-BRICS disputes, could limit the effectiveness of the NDB/CRA. For now, they seem to have been papered over amid the excitement surrounding the Fortaleza agreements. But they will, ultimately, determine whether the developing world has finally found a viable alternative to Bretton Woods.

[Asiantravel]

Russia Sanctions Accelerate Risk to Dollar Dominance

U.S. and European Union sanctions against Russia threaten to hasten a move away from the dollar that’s been stirring since the global financial crisis

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/russia-sanctions-accelerate-risk-to-dollar-dominance.html

Edited August 8, 2014 by Asiantravel

[manarak]

.......If you want to know what The Ukraine Situation is all about....read this....

http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=12186

...and stop painting Russia as the bad guy.....

...scum cause wars and kill people.....for profit.......

...and make up stories and point fingers....to get their way......

Yes let's not blame Russia for supporting rebels in another country's civil way by sending materiel and troops! Poor innocent Russia! Getting blamed for everything boohoo!

The point westerners miss is the way "nationality" works in the former soviet republics.

For them, a passport is just a piece of paper which defines from which administration one depends.

In Russia and Ukraine, one's heritage is what defines one's nationality.

80% of the population in and around Kharkiv and Donetsk are Russians carrying a Ukrainian passport.

Seen from Russian eyes, Russia supports Russians who refuse to be ruled by nationalist Ukrainians, among which exist strong anti-russian feelings.