Real Estate Bubble

[chiang mai]

Without Loy Kroh Road Chiang Mai is the Santa Fe NM of Thailand....

There are more University students in Chiang Mai than in the entire state of New Mexico.

It's time to ante up on that one, link please.

64,000 students enrolled in CM

http://www.chiangmainews.com/indepth/details.php?id=2485

28,000 students in New Mexico

http://colleges.findthebest.com/q/2664/22/How-many-students-go-to-University-of-New-Mexico-UNM

Because I was bored and I like trivia, I bothered to find out, I also note that you tried to compare a single newspaper quote covering all of Chiang Mai against just the U of NM enrollment numbers, naughty that:

New Mexico University Students - between 70,000 and 85,000

the source is here: http://www.4icu.org/us/New-Mexico.htm

I can't begin to get close to your number for CM but will keep looking.

[chiang mai]

BTW the population of Chiang Mai Province is circa 1.7 mill. vs NM at 2 mill, percentage wise it looks as though student numbers may actually be comparable.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Regarding investing in property where I'm reasonably confident of being able to legally buy and hold property with decent appreciation potential, I think that for a westerner who invests wisely Florida is a much better bet than Chiang Mai.

Many houses in Florida are selling now, for less than they sold in the 1990s.

Not many wise investors there in the past 25 years!

But I agree, still a better prospect than CM.

Edited August 11, 2014 by AnotherOneAmerican

[jaideeguy]

As usual,the replies to the OP have gone way off topic and discussions of the condo market have over taken the housing market situation in the OP.

To return to the housing market situation and it's effects on prices is a depressing subject to me as a seller. So much inventory of 2nd hand houses and not enough real buyers. Lots of lookers that just want a free ride from the hungry agents and a chance to pry into other peoples lives with no intention of buying.

I think that would be normal in a situation like we have at present......... The lowest of the low rainy season during a politically unstable period which may [or may not] pass, but I would definitely be reluctant to bring my $$ or whatever currency into this uncertain atmosphere and it seems that a lot of us are bailing out for whatever reasons.

The smart ones rent and will wait until the dust settles, but this bubble has got to burst at some point.

[onthedarkside]

off topic post removed - let's stay on CM real estate.

[evenstevens]

The smart ones rent and will wait until the dust settles, but this bubble has got to burst at some point.

my outlook from a street smart layman is

buying for residential purposes,appears a reasonable option. long term that is,and not forgetting entering in at the right price

anyone who has tumbled into the quarry, that c/mai is a safe rental investment opportunity etc etc long term is in disneyland

all over my long years residing in c/mai, renting has always been very affordable in all areas of c/mai

and renting is the safest bet in all depts,from my experiences and i have done the full monty

this condo/,housing explosion will only make renting more affordable whether its in the low or high bracket, supply and demand rule will surely apply here

for mine, the present renters or future ones ...will be laughing all the way to the bank,,could nt lay enuff money on it, and the rental investors well...who knows???

a very nice day to all

Edited August 11, 2014 by evenstevens

[WillG]

As usual,the replies to the OP have gone way off topic and discussions of the condo market have over taken the housing market situation in the OP.

To return to the housing market situation and it's effects on prices is a depressing subject to me as a seller. So much inventory of 2nd hand houses and not enough real buyers. Lots of lookers that just want a free ride from the hungry agents and a chance to pry into other peoples lives with no intention of buying.

I think that would be normal in a situation like we have at present......... The lowest of the low rainy season during a politically unstable period which may [or may not] pass, but I would definitely be reluctant to bring my $$ or whatever currency into this uncertain atmosphere and it seems that a lot of us are bailing out for whatever reasons.

The smart ones rent and will wait until the dust settles, but this bubble has got to burst at some point.

Being a potential condo buyer in near future I am reading these posts with great interest and the statement "... a lot of us are bailing out ..." is quite startling. Where do you get this from ... is it based on fact or heresay?

[mesquite]

Quite obviously CM real estate is a bubble. Why would those who have already invested (via their wives or other means) proclaim otherwise? If they did not feel it was a bubble, they would keep silent and snatch up all these good values for themselves. No, they want to create demand to drive up the price of their assets.

Perhaps they want to unload now, before strict enforcement of ownership laws starts to take place. I know I would.

Edited August 11, 2014 by mesquite

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Condos and shopfronts are a disaster waiting to happen.

So many empty unsold units something's got to happen.

Well, they're not very attractive if far out, but not sure why they would be a disaster. A rich family acquired that land next to a ring road, and decided to spend a couple million to build one or two blocks of shophouses. Which don't sell. But they don't care, it's not like they need the money in a hurry.

However, compare this to a shophouse downtown, no matter how old, and then I'm highly interested. They're quite versatile buildings that you can do anything with.

except of course have any form of greenery around. so no garden. basically commercial space unless you are comfortable being surrounded by nothing more than concrete (which many people are).

The garden & terrace with view would be on the roof.

Of course.

[chiang mai]

Quite obviously CM real estate is a bubble. Why would those who have already invested (via their wives or other means) proclaim otherwise? If they did not feel it was a bubble, they would keep silent and snatch up all these good values for themselves. No, they want to create demand to drive up the price of their assets.

Perhaps they want to unload now, before strict enforcement of ownership laws starts to take place. I know I would.

How much stricter do you think home ownership enforcement can become, what are your candidates for things "they" might do?

FWIW I don't think "they" are going to do anything that will affect the average person, company structures and ownership has already been addressed and condo's are at a maximum of 49%, land is already a no go for foreigners so really all that's left is a possible, "you can't own anything related to property or companies or a business" and that's not going to happen in a million years..

[kaptainrob]

IMHO the outer moobans will see most suffering when demand falls or banks foreclose, for whatever reason, most likely a US led downturn sometime soon. There's a lot of inner suburban crap projects being thrown together which may suffer also, namely the KKN development behind BanWangtan and Urbana4 on Mae Hia side of Hang Dong Road. 1.9m THB blows out to 3m with fixtures and furnishings in Urbana4's ghetto-like little boxes.

What amazes me is how vendors can ask NEW replacement cost [4.2m] for a grubby 5 y/o ex-rental L&H home in Siwalee Ratchapruek. Especially given Thai's dislike of buying 2nd hand due to superstition. I can however, understand the dislike of those > 25 y/o dark cottages in some moobans ... mind you, at a price, they renovate well.

[Thighlander]

FACT

It is cheaper to live in florida than CHIANG MAI ! I know I've lived in both. Same climate. Food cheaper. Gas cheaper. Cars cheaper. Medicare. Golf cheaper. The list goes on? Most other things cheaper.

2 million baht....( thanks to a bubble )

ImageUploadedByThaivisa Connect Thailand1407674769.900800.jpg

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Florida is the Pattaya of the US; a large collection of crooks, con artists, and gypsies. Who needs a car in Chiang Mai? If you are in poor health; you are probably better off on Medicare...that has been discussed before. How much are your property taxes? Homeowners Insurance? Water/sewer/trash? More Jews than Israel; more Africans than Liberia.....Habla Espanol?

Regarding the "crooks, con artists, and gypsies", what kind of places do you hang out in? Regarding costs, some are higher in Florida than in Thailand, some are lower. The bursting of the housing bubble did create some bargains, and some are still there. Regarding the diversity, I think it's a good thing, Florida would be a dull state without it. Finally, while I'm badly out of practice, I do speak Spanish, and I can't begin to describe how much easier it was to learn than Thai.

Regarding investing in property where I'm reasonably confident of being able to legally buy and hold property with decent appreciation potential, I think that for a westerner who invests wisely Florida is a much better bet than Chiang Mai.

Texas has far better prospects than Florida. Energy, Technology, and Manufacturing sectors are much stronger than in FL.

Cable TV in Thailand? Who needs a cable; I get lots of English channels on www.ilikehd.com for 500 THB per month. I do it in 30 day blocks, so if I am out of town; I don't pay for it. Mobile cost me less than 2 usd per month.

[heybruce]

Regarding investing in property where I'm reasonably confident of being able to legally buy and hold property with decent appreciation potential, I think that for a westerner who invests wisely Florida is a much better bet than Chiang Mai.

Many houses in Florida are selling now, for less than they sold in the 1990s.

Not many wise investors there in the past 25 years!

But I agree, still a better prospect than CM.

That's the nature of the bubble, prices started increasing long before the bubble burst in 2007, and some of these houses have not come close to getting back to there peak prices. That's why some, but not all of them, are still bargains.

If you look at Zillow and check mid-range house prices north of Orlando, but still in commuting distance, you might be surprised by what you can buy. Keep in mind that due diligence in Florida means checking to see if the house of interest is in a flood or tidal surge zone. That rules out Miami. Of course due diligence in Chiang Mai should involve checking to see if the property of interest is in a flood zone, but it seems a great many buyers don't bother with that.

I suspect, but can not prove, that Chiang Mai is experiencing a bubble. If it is in a bubble there's no way of knowing when or how it will burst or deflate. That along with restrictions on foreign ownership, difficulties in selling, etc, are the reasons I'd rather invest my money elsewhere. I understand there's money to be made in Spain, but only for people doing the due diligence and willing to hold and maintain the property for a long time.

Edited August 11, 2014 by heybruce

[worgeordie]

Is this subject about Chiang Mai property or Texas,Arizona

or Florida,this is Thailand things here don't work the same

as in the US.,the banks are not so aggressive to foreclose,

as they are in the West,so any bubble here will deflate not

explode,and really its only the Condo market that is oversupplied.

regards Worgeordie

[beau thai]

Maybe inevitably, these real estate threads tend to revolve around renters, who think the market will go down and owners, who see it going up

But without the complications of exchange rates, condo fees, maintenance, inflation etc which we can all disagree about ad nauseum, it seems to me that, in broad terms (which means everyone can find exceptions to prove 'their' point), it looks like this:

If you have the choice of buying or renting a specific condo, if the buy price is 1.5m the rental is likely to be around 10k.

In 5 years a renter will have paid 600k in rent, and own nothing-but has the freedom to move around which many value.

The buyer, if the market goes up 5% a year, will have a condo worth 1.8m, whereas if the market goes down 5% a year, the owner has a condo worth 1.16m and has 'lost' 340k instead of paying 600k in rent. But still has a rent free condo.

Sure my 5% is just a number, and you can pick your own and come to a different conclusion.

From what I see, the rental market is hardening a little-you can always find the odd bargain, but it looks to me as though what rented for 10k a year ago, is now going at 10.5 to 11k. But I may be wrong as it is impossible to get data.

What happens next will be partly dependent upon the visitor inflow in the next high season, but I confess I have been surprised by how well the market has held up, given the debilitating political strife that went on for months, which got very extravagant media cover abroad, and got us delisted for travel by 52 countries. (The same countries that dont approve of our military government, believing there's is better- hmm)

I have some concerns about the amount, location and quality of many new build condos here, but still the older buildings (by and large with larger rooms) seem to hold up well in terms of sales and rentals.

Be interested to see others views. Speaking with a friend yesterday I suggested that if you ask 5 economists you get 10 opinions- he corrected me and said you get 12.

Why should TV be any different? But all our views (and many others) make market, so it is always ineteresting to see others views- so long as they are only about Chiang Mai property- which was the OP's question- Not Florida, Australia, UK or Timbuctoo

[heybruce]

Maybe inevitably, these real estate threads tend to revolve around renters, who think the market will go down and owners, who see it going up

But without the complications of exchange rates, condo fees, maintenance, inflation etc which we can all disagree about ad nauseum, it seems to me that, in broad terms (which means everyone can find exceptions to prove 'their' point), it looks like this:

If you have the choice of buying or renting a specific condo, if the buy price is 1.5m the rental is likely to be around 10k.

In 5 years a renter will have paid 600k in rent, and own nothing-but has the freedom to move around which many value.

The buyer, if the market goes up 5% a year, will have a condo worth 1.8m, whereas if the market goes down 5% a year, the owner has a condo worth 1.16m and has 'lost' 340k instead of paying 600k in rent. But still has a rent free condo.

Sure my 5% is just a number, and you can pick your own and come to a different conclusion.

From what I see, the rental market is hardening a little-you can always find the odd bargain, but it looks to me as though what rented for 10k a year ago, is now going at 10.5 to 11k. But I may be wrong as it is impossible to get data.

What happens next will be partly dependent upon the visitor inflow in the next high season, but I confess I have been surprised by how well the market has held up, given the debilitating political strife that went on for months, which got very extravagant media cover abroad, and got us delisted for travel by 52 countries. (The same countries that dont approve of our military government, believing there's is better- hmm)

I have some concerns about the amount, location and quality of many new build condos here, but still the older buildings (by and large with larger rooms) seem to hold up well in terms of sales and rentals.

Be interested to see others views. Speaking with a friend yesterday I suggested that if you ask 5 economists you get 10 opinions- he corrected me and said you get 12.

Why should TV be any different? But all our views (and many others) make market, so it is always ineteresting to see others views- so long as they are only about Chiang Mai property- which was the OP's question- Not Florida, Australia, UK or Timbuctoo

I agree with the general idea that buying to live in for several years and then selling may make financial sense. However I don't think you will find a 1.5m condo that would be rented at 10k a month. Maybe, but it wouldn't be easy.

I estimate the place I'm renting would probably sell for between 2.5m and 3m, and I'm renting it for 12k a month, with the owner paying the condo fees and maintenance. Even with those numbers the buy to live-in option might make sense, it depends on the individuals commitment to the location, attitude towards risk, alternative investment options, etc. I'm going to continue to rent, currently the foundation is being laid to a new condo that will block my view to the northeast and add to the already bad traffic congestion; I like having the option of moving.

[evenstevens]

Maybe inevitably, these real estate threads tend to revolve around renters, who think the market will go down and owners, who see it going up

But without the complications of exchange rates, condo fees, maintenance, inflation etc which we can all disagree about ad nauseum, it seems to me that, in broad terms (which means everyone can find exceptions to prove 'their' point), it looks like this:

If you have the choice of buying or renting a specific condo, if the buy price is 1.5m the rental is likely to be around 10k.

In 5 years a renter will have paid 600k in rent, and own nothing-but has the freedom to move around which many value.

The buyer, if the market goes up 5% a year, will have a condo worth 1.8m, whereas if the market goes down 5% a year, the owner has a condo worth 1.16m and has 'lost' 340k instead of paying 600k in rent. But still has a rent free condo.

Sure my 5% is just a number, and you can pick your own and come to a different conclusion.

But all our views (and many others) make market, so it is always ineteresting to see others views- so long as they are only about Chiang Mai property- which was the OP's question- Not Florida, Australia, UK or Timbuctoo

say the renter would have been up for(your figure) 600k, but he escapes the initial outlay cost of buying a condo (your figure)1.5 mil

that 1.5 mil invested in my home country, over 5 yrs would have netted approx 400k

so the renter is down 200k over 5 yrs or 40 k a year or 3,300 per month, lovely juicy number for renting, and no head aches, plus absoulately freedom,take it anytime

[beau thai]

Maybe inevitably, these real estate threads tend to revolve around renters, who think the market will go down and owners, who see it going up

But without the complications of exchange rates, condo fees, maintenance, inflation etc which we can all disagree about ad nauseum, it seems to me that, in broad terms (which means everyone can find exceptions to prove 'their' point), it looks like this:

If you have the choice of buying or renting a specific condo, if the buy price is 1.5m the rental is likely to be around 10k.

In 5 years a renter will have paid 600k in rent, and own nothing-but has the freedom to move around which many value.

The buyer, if the market goes up 5% a year, will have a condo worth 1.8m, whereas if the market goes down 5% a year, the owner has a condo worth 1.16m and has 'lost' 340k instead of paying 600k in rent. But still has a rent free condo.

Sure my 5% is just a number, and you can pick your own and come to a different conclusion.

But all our views (and many others) make market, so it is always ineteresting to see others views- so long as they are only about Chiang Mai property- which was the OP's question- Not Florida, Australia, UK or Timbuctoo

say the renter would have been up for(your figure) 600k, but he escapes the initial outlay cost of buying a condo (your figure)1.5 mil

that 1.5 mil invested in my home country, over 5 yrs would have netted approx 400k

so the renter is down 200k over 5 yrs or 40 k a year or 3,300 per month, lovely juicy number for renting, and no head aches, plus absoulately freedom,take it anytime

You are quite correct - i had overlooked the opportunity cost of the 1.5m. But in my home country a 'high rate' 5 year fix bank deposit net about 1.5% after tax- or about 110k.

And if the freedom is important, you cant put a price on that but I am lucky and have a home i never want to leave-except in a box.

[onthedarkside]

off topic post removed - let's stay on CM real estate.

In an effort to steer this topic back on track I am removing all posts not relating to CM, plus the inevitable trolls. No further notice will be be given for posts removed.

[mesquite]

Maybe inevitably, these real estate threads tend to revolve around renters, who think the market will go down and owners, who see it going up

But without the complications of exchange rates, condo fees, maintenance, inflation etc which we can all disagree about ad nauseum, it seems to me that, in broad terms (which means everyone can find exceptions to prove 'their' point), it looks like this:

If you have the choice of buying or renting a specific condo, if the buy price is 1.5m the rental is likely to be around 10k.

In 5 years a renter will have paid 600k in rent, and own nothing-but has the freedom to move around which many value.

The buyer, if the market goes up 5% a year, will have a condo worth 1.8m, whereas if the market goes down 5% a year, the owner has a condo worth 1.16m and has 'lost' 340k instead of paying 600k in rent. But still has a rent free condo.

Sure my 5% is just a number, and you can pick your own and come to a different conclusion.

From what I see, the rental market is hardening a little-you can always find the odd bargain, but it looks to me as though what rented for 10k a year ago, is now going at 10.5 to 11k. But I may be wrong as it is impossible to get data.

What happens next will be partly dependent upon the visitor inflow in the next high season, but I confess I have been surprised by how well the market has held up, given the debilitating political strife that went on for months, which got very extravagant media cover abroad, and got us delisted for travel by 52 countries. (The same countries that dont approve of our military government, believing there's is better- hmm)

I have some concerns about the amount, location and quality of many new build condos here, but still the older buildings (by and large with larger rooms) seem to hold up well in terms of sales and rentals.

Be interested to see others views. Speaking with a friend yesterday I suggested that if you ask 5 economists you get 10 opinions- he corrected me and said you get 12.

Why should TV be any different? But all our views (and many others) make market, so it is always ineteresting to see others views- so long as they are only about Chiang Mai property- which was the OP's question- Not Florida, Australia, UK or Timbuctoo

I agree with the general idea that buying to live in for several years and then selling may make financial sense. However I don't think you will find a 1.5m condo that would be rented at 10k a month. Maybe, but it wouldn't be easy.

I estimate the place I'm renting would probably sell for between 2.5m and 3m, and I'm renting it for 12k a month, with the owner paying the condo fees and maintenance. Even with those numbers the buy to live-in option might make sense, it depends on the individuals commitment to the location, attitude towards risk, alternative investment options, etc. I'm going to continue to rent, currently the foundation is being laid to a new condo that will block my view to the northeast and add to the already bad traffic congestion; I like having the option of moving.

Same here. Not only to a different building in CM, but totally out of the country if necessary, with nothing left behind for the powers that be to seize.

[beau thai]

Maybe inevitably, these real estate threads tend to revolve around renters, who think the market will go down and owners, who see it going up

But without the complications of exchange rates, condo fees, maintenance, inflation etc which we can all disagree about ad nauseum, it seems to me that, in broad terms (which means everyone can find exceptions to prove 'their' point), it looks like this:

If you have the choice of buying or renting a specific condo, if the buy price is 1.5m the rental is likely to be around 10k.

In 5 years a renter will have paid 600k in rent, and own nothing-but has the freedom to move around which many value.

The buyer, if the market goes up 5% a year, will have a condo worth 1.8m, whereas if the market goes down 5% a year, the owner has a condo worth 1.16m and has 'lost' 340k instead of paying 600k in rent. But still has a rent free condo.

Sure my 5% is just a number, and you can pick your own and come to a different conclusion.

From what I see, the rental market is hardening a little-you can always find the odd bargain, but it looks to me as though what rented for 10k a year ago, is now going at 10.5 to 11k. But I may be wrong as it is impossible to get data.

What happens next will be partly dependent upon the visitor inflow in the next high season, but I confess I have been surprised by how well the market has held up, given the debilitating political strife that went on for months, which got very extravagant media cover abroad, and got us delisted for travel by 52 countries. (The same countries that dont approve of our military government, believing there's is better- hmm)

I have some concerns about the amount, location and quality of many new build condos here, but still the older buildings (by and large with larger rooms) seem to hold up well in terms of sales and rentals.

Be interested to see others views. Speaking with a friend yesterday I suggested that if you ask 5 economists you get 10 opinions- he corrected me and said you get 12.

Why should TV be any different? But all our views (and many others) make market, so it is always ineteresting to see others views- so long as they are only about Chiang Mai property- which was the OP's question- Not Florida, Australia, UK or Timbuctoo

I agree with the general idea that buying to live in for several years and then selling may make financial sense. However I don't think you will find a 1.5m condo that would be rented at 10k a month. Maybe, but it wouldn't be easy.

I estimate the place I'm renting would probably sell for between 2.5m and 3m, and I'm renting it for 12k a month, with the owner paying the condo fees and maintenance. Even with those numbers the buy to live-in option might make sense, it depends on the individuals commitment to the location, attitude towards risk, alternative investment options, etc. I'm going to continue to rent, currently the foundation is being laid to a new condo that will block my view to the northeast and add to the already bad traffic congestion; I like having the option of moving.

I think you have a great deal if your owner could sell for 2.5m but only charges you 12k.

Time he has paid an agent finder's fee, and management (if he does), and condo fees and a little maintenance, that's not much of a return. I guess he/she either doesnt care or is hanging in for capital growth.

But I know of many buildings where the 1.5m/10k buy/rent option works- and that only nets the owner just over 6%.

Better if the monthly rent is 1% of the buy price but that is hard to find!

[iancnx]

The Chinese are aggressive buyers in California/Arizona/Nevada; they buy here, too. They even buy in Japan, and are likely the biggest foreign buyers in Oz.

Chinese like to buy land, they can't buy land in Thailand either.

A concrete box suspended in the air is rarely worth buying, unless you intend to live in it.

I think if you check out the leasehold flats in London (and all other major cities around the world) you might find the concrete box market is highly lucrative. The difference is new Condo's bought on the foreign quota (49%) of each building are Freehold. CM is experiencing a dip, as is the rest of the country in one way or another. It is a cycle and I fully expect at least the higher end condo market to be booming once again. Probably a good time to buy for the speculative. The cheap rubbish that has been thrown up will show its age after a few years.... these are not so attractive.

[iancnx]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

As usual,the replies to the OP have gone way off topic and discussions of the condo market have over taken the housing market situation in the OP.

To return to the housing market situation and it's effects on prices is a depressing subject to me as a seller. So much inventory of 2nd hand houses and not enough real buyers. Lots of lookers that just want a free ride from the hungry agents and a chance to pry into other peoples lives with no intention of buying.

I think that would be normal in a situation like we have at present......... The lowest of the low rainy season during a politically unstable period which may [or may not] pass, but I would definitely be reluctant to bring my $$ or whatever currency into this uncertain atmosphere and it seems that a lot of us are bailing out for whatever reasons.

The smart ones rent and will wait until the dust settles, but this bubble has got to burst at some point.

Being a potential condo buyer in near future I am reading these posts with great interest and the statement "... a lot of us are bailing out ..." is quite startling. Where do you get this from ... is it based on fact or heresay?

I think maybe a small number of those that were getting a good yield up to 12 months ago (as much as 10 or 12 % before tax) might be finding their now empty condo's a less attractive proposition. Bailing out to get a return elsewhere is OK if you need to and have the time. Personally I would sell the smaller of my two units, as I see an oversupply of studio's, but I am fortunate that I don't need to rush this decision. The larger unit that I own is really premium and in a cracking good building - I have no plans to sell despite it being empty now for 5 months or so. The market for such will pick up IMO.

[heybruce]

Maybe inevitably, these real estate threads tend to revolve around renters, who think the market will go down and owners, who see it going up

But without the complications of exchange rates, condo fees, maintenance, inflation etc which we can all disagree about ad nauseum, it seems to me that, in broad terms (which means everyone can find exceptions to prove 'their' point), it looks like this:

If you have the choice of buying or renting a specific condo, if the buy price is 1.5m the rental is likely to be around 10k.

In 5 years a renter will have paid 600k in rent, and own nothing-but has the freedom to move around which many value.

The buyer, if the market goes up 5% a year, will have a condo worth 1.8m, whereas if the market goes down 5% a year, the owner has a condo worth 1.16m and has 'lost' 340k instead of paying 600k in rent. But still has a rent free condo.

Sure my 5% is just a number, and you can pick your own and come to a different conclusion.

From what I see, the rental market is hardening a little-you can always find the odd bargain, but it looks to me as though what rented for 10k a year ago, is now going at 10.5 to 11k. But I may be wrong as it is impossible to get data.

What happens next will be partly dependent upon the visitor inflow in the next high season, but I confess I have been surprised by how well the market has held up, given the debilitating political strife that went on for months, which got very extravagant media cover abroad, and got us delisted for travel by 52 countries. (The same countries that dont approve of our military government, believing there's is better- hmm)

I have some concerns about the amount, location and quality of many new build condos here, but still the older buildings (by and large with larger rooms) seem to hold up well in terms of sales and rentals.

Be interested to see others views. Speaking with a friend yesterday I suggested that if you ask 5 economists you get 10 opinions- he corrected me and said you get 12.

Why should TV be any different? But all our views (and many others) make market, so it is always ineteresting to see others views- so long as they are only about Chiang Mai property- which was the OP's question- Not Florida, Australia, UK or Timbuctoo

I agree with the general idea that buying to live in for several years and then selling may make financial sense. However I don't think you will find a 1.5m condo that would be rented at 10k a month. Maybe, but it wouldn't be easy.

I estimate the place I'm renting would probably sell for between 2.5m and 3m, and I'm renting it for 12k a month, with the owner paying the condo fees and maintenance. Even with those numbers the buy to live-in option might make sense, it depends on the individuals commitment to the location, attitude towards risk, alternative investment options, etc. I'm going to continue to rent, currently the foundation is being laid to a new condo that will block my view to the northeast and add to the already bad traffic congestion; I like having the option of moving.

I think you have a great deal if your owner could sell for 2.5m but only charges you 12k.

Time he has paid an agent finder's fee, and management (if he does), and condo fees and a little maintenance, that's not much of a return. I guess he/she either doesnt care or is hanging in for capital growth.

But I know of many buildings where the 1.5m/10k buy/rent option works- and that only nets the owner just over 6%.

Better if the monthly rent is 1% of the buy price but that is hard to find!

As I understand things, the tenant who preceded me did considerable damage to the condo then left the country. That's one of the many things people who buy to rent should keep in mind. I've stayed here for three years, take care of the place, pay my rent on time, and induce a minor panic in the owner if I suggest moving. It seems good tenants are hard to find.

[heybruce]

Maybe inevitably, these real estate threads tend to revolve around renters, who think the market will go down and owners, who see it going up

But without the complications of exchange rates, condo fees, maintenance, inflation etc which we can all disagree about ad nauseum, it seems to me that, in broad terms (which means everyone can find exceptions to prove 'their' point), it looks like this:

If you have the choice of buying or renting a specific condo, if the buy price is 1.5m the rental is likely to be around 10k.

In 5 years a renter will have paid 600k in rent, and own nothing-but has the freedom to move around which many value.

The buyer, if the market goes up 5% a year, will have a condo worth 1.8m, whereas if the market goes down 5% a year, the owner has a condo worth 1.16m and has 'lost' 340k instead of paying 600k in rent. But still has a rent free condo.

Sure my 5% is just a number, and you can pick your own and come to a different conclusion.

From what I see, the rental market is hardening a little-you can always find the odd bargain, but it looks to me as though what rented for 10k a year ago, is now going at 10.5 to 11k. But I may be wrong as it is impossible to get data.

What happens next will be partly dependent upon the visitor inflow in the next high season, but I confess I have been surprised by how well the market has held up, given the debilitating political strife that went on for months, which got very extravagant media cover abroad, and got us delisted for travel by 52 countries. (The same countries that dont approve of our military government, believing there's is better- hmm)

I have some concerns about the amount, location and quality of many new build condos here, but still the older buildings (by and large with larger rooms) seem to hold up well in terms of sales and rentals.

Be interested to see others views. Speaking with a friend yesterday I suggested that if you ask 5 economists you get 10 opinions- he corrected me and said you get 12.

Why should TV be any different? But all our views (and many others) make market, so it is always ineteresting to see others views- so long as they are only about Chiang Mai property- which was the OP's question- Not Florida, Australia, UK or Timbuctoo

I agree with the general idea that buying to live in for several years and then selling may make financial sense. However I don't think you will find a 1.5m condo that would be rented at 10k a month. Maybe, but it wouldn't be easy.

I estimate the place I'm renting would probably sell for between 2.5m and 3m, and I'm renting it for 12k a month, with the owner paying the condo fees and maintenance. Even with those numbers the buy to live-in option might make sense, it depends on the individuals commitment to the location, attitude towards risk, alternative investment options, etc. I'm going to continue to rent, currently the foundation is being laid to a new condo that will block my view to the northeast and add to the already bad traffic congestion; I like having the option of moving.

Same here. Not only to a different building in CM, but totally out of the country if necessary, with nothing left behind for the powers that be to seize.

I agree. I have a lack of faith in the current and preceding governments regarding respect for the property rights of foreigners, and I'm sure the next government will be little different. One of many reasons why I think Thailand is a nice place to rent but I wouldn't want to own here.

[JDGRUEN]

It seems I live in a different world than so many in Thailand and the CM area... I cannot imagine why anyone would travel half way around the world to a lovely tropical country and live in low rise / mid rise / high rise condo in a fast growing and increasingly urbanized area... Simply amazing ... Never the less... the real culprit over the past two- three years has been the political turmoil with abundant violence, followed by military take over, and now we have a systematic crackdown on foreigners working and or just living in Thailand (for reasons justified or not).

In my estimation the whole concept of over built - over hyped condo and other housing types in CM and elsewhere in Thailand is on very shaky ground. The economics of over building in the presence of happenings that discourage immigration of those with disposable income done on a large scale portends a really bad future outcome (IMO). Maybe the Chinese will save the day - but I really doubt it.

And this discussion says little to nothing about the overbuilt resort, hotel, guest house, bungalow, etc, rental market in CM and elsewhere that will end up competing with empty condos. Which only adds to the prognosis of a bad outcome... It is the law of supply and demand governed heavily by available disposable income of available customers ... which are factors greatly ignored...

[mesquite]

Maybe inevitably, these real estate threads tend to revolve around renters, who think the market will go down and owners, who see it going up

But without the complications of exchange rates, condo fees, maintenance, inflation etc which we can all disagree about ad nauseum, it seems to me that, in broad terms (which means everyone can find exceptions to prove 'their' point), it looks like this:

If you have the choice of buying or renting a specific condo, if the buy price is 1.5m the rental is likely to be around 10k.

In 5 years a renter will have paid 600k in rent, and own nothing-but has the freedom to move around which many value.

The buyer, if the market goes up 5% a year, will have a condo worth 1.8m, whereas if the market goes down 5% a year, the owner has a condo worth 1.16m and has 'lost' 340k instead of paying 600k in rent. But still has a rent free condo.

Sure my 5% is just a number, and you can pick your own and come to a different conclusion.

From what I see, the rental market is hardening a little-you can always find the odd bargain, but it looks to me as though what rented for 10k a year ago, is now going at 10.5 to 11k. But I may be wrong as it is impossible to get data.

What happens next will be partly dependent upon the visitor inflow in the next high season, but I confess I have been surprised by how well the market has held up, given the debilitating political strife that went on for months, which got very extravagant media cover abroad, and got us delisted for travel by 52 countries. (The same countries that dont approve of our military government, believing there's is better- hmm)

I have some concerns about the amount, location and quality of many new build condos here, but still the older buildings (by and large with larger rooms) seem to hold up well in terms of sales and rentals.

Be interested to see others views. Speaking with a friend yesterday I suggested that if you ask 5 economists you get 10 opinions- he corrected me and said you get 12.

Why should TV be any different? But all our views (and many others) make market, so it is always ineteresting to see others views- so long as they are only about Chiang Mai property- which was the OP's question- Not Florida, Australia, UK or Timbuctoo

I agree with the general idea that buying to live in for several years and then selling may make financial sense. However I don't think you will find a 1.5m condo that would be rented at 10k a month. Maybe, but it wouldn't be easy.

I estimate the place I'm renting would probably sell for between 2.5m and 3m, and I'm renting it for 12k a month, with the owner paying the condo fees and maintenance. Even with those numbers the buy to live-in option might make sense, it depends on the individuals commitment to the location, attitude towards risk, alternative investment options, etc. I'm going to continue to rent, currently the foundation is being laid to a new condo that will block my view to the northeast and add to the already bad traffic congestion; I like having the option of moving.

I think you have a great deal if your owner could sell for 2.5m but only charges you 12k.

Time he has paid an agent finder's fee, and management (if he does), and condo fees and a little maintenance, that's not much of a return. I guess he/she either doesnt care or is hanging in for capital growth.

But I know of many buildings where the 1.5m/10k buy/rent option works- and that only nets the owner just over 6%.

Better if the monthly rent is 1% of the buy price but that is hard to find!

As I understand things, the tenant who preceded me did considerable damage to the condo then left the country. That's one of the many things people who buy to rent should keep in mind. I've stayed here for three years, take care of the place, pay my rent on time, and induce a minor panic in the owner if I suggest moving. It seems good tenants are hard to find.

This is how I operate as well. All of my landlords have rolled out the red carpet for me and the current one continues to do so.

[evenstevens]

just a few numbers to chew on

c/mai prop ,presently have on their books

condos for sale,381....rent 95

houses for sale 1417..rent 1070

the above figures are taken from their w/site(if updated regurlar who knows???)

add the private sales and other agents etc etc.. plus whats coming in the pipeline..quite staggering numbers

it will take a world invasion to take up this slack, said on this forum for last 5 months c/mai is a buyers market

and recently on this forum, ,its a renters paradise ,particular when the supply and demand really kicks in

and the rental investors are in the land, where angels fear to tread,

a nice morning to all

[chiang mai]

just a few numbers to chew on

c/mai prop ,presently have on their books

condos for sale,381....rent 95

houses for sale 1417..rent 1070

the above figures are taken from their w/site(if updated regurlar who knows???)

add the private sales and other agents etc etc.. plus whats coming in the pipeline..quite staggering numbers

it will take a world invasion to take up this slack, said on this forum for last 5 months c/mai is a buyers market

and recently on this forum, ,its a renters paradise ,particular when the supply and demand really kicks in

and the rental investors are in the land, where angels fear to tread,

a nice morning to all

They are quite poor at cleaning up their web site, we've approached them three times to make appointments to view and not one has been successful. One came back with the story that the owner was abroad and wasn't responding to emails, another was that the owner had changed his mind and didn't want to sell, a third was a clear bait and switch, I would take the numbers with a large pinch of salt. That being said it's a useful exercise to get some form of numbers from websites, even if they are very loose. I can think of another large site that is notorious for bait and switch, an agency based near Ruam chok, it really p*sses me off.

[evenstevens]

just a few numbers to chew on

c/mai prop ,presently have on their books

condos for sale,381....rent 95

houses for sale 1417..rent 1070

the above figures are taken from their w/site(if updated regurlar who knows???)

add the private sales and other agents etc etc.. plus whats coming in the pipeline..quite staggering numbers

it will take a world invasion to take up this slack, said on this forum for last 5 months c/mai is a buyers market

and recently on this forum, ,its a renters paradise ,particular when the supply and demand really kicks in

and the rental investors are in the land, where angels fear to tread,

a nice morning to all

They are quite poor at cleaning up their web site, we've approached them three times to make appointments to view and not one has been successful. One came back with the story that the owner was abroad and wasn't responding to emails, another was that the owner had changed his mind and didn't want to sell, a third was a clear bait and switch, I would take the numbers with a large pinch of salt. That being said it's a useful exercise to get some form of numbers from websites, even if they are very loose. I can think of another large site that is notorious for bait and switch, an agency based near Ruam chok, it really p*sses me off.

i could nt agree more( did i say that ), i personally have had dealings with them,and putting it nicely,better alternatives around town

say if we knocked off 30% off those numbers,still staggering to say the least..

Edited August 12, 2014 by evenstevens