First car deal defaults jump 25 folds: Thai Excise Dept

[frollywolly]

Do your maths again. If 36 000 default out of 1,2 million it will still be less than the average for vehicle finance in the country. It will be lower than the NPL on the banks books and would have provided 1,176 million people with the opportunity to own a vehicle, plus it achieved the goal of stimulating the vehicle industry after the 2011 flood.

It stimulated only finance companies and car manufacturers. Stimulated for what though? For future disaster for thousands?

So what if 1.1 million people bought cars? What does that achieve if it send too many people broke?

I said 36,000 within a year. One year. Beyond that I have stated there will be 50,000-100,000 defaulters. That is conservative. There could be twice as many. A huge number by any standards. Most of these buyers have given no security for their loan. WIth interest rates comparitively low by international standards there should be significantly fewer defaulters than the US.

[arisaje]

So that means all the populist policies have failed,but some people

made a lot of money out of them, so thats OK?.

regards Worgeordie

Who said the populist policy failed, 500 defaults out of 1m+ cars sold....thats amazingly low.

Thats pretty damn good, as the West has far worse 'housing and car loan' default numbers......somewhere in the 3% to 4% range which related to this Thai sales example would have been 30,000 to 40,000 defaults.

In reality the news article is pointless....other than trying to make the policy and scheme sound bad.

[icare999]

well what a surprise a lot where bought by rich people anyway and several of our friends bought for their children. In one case a friend bought 2 and his children doth even live in Thailand and al;though you cant sell for 5 years theirs plenty of ways around that.

Another pathetic Taksin scam

[connda]

Really? I'm so very surprised.

600K to 1.2M cars being sold to individuals who make 8k to 15K baht / mo. Surprise, surprise.

[thailiketoo]

Really? I'm so very surprised.

600K to 1.2M cars being sold to individuals who make 8k to 15K baht / mo. Surprise, surprise.

You too? I was also surprised that only 500 have defaulted. Seems like it was a smashing success eh?

[frollywolly]

It stimulated only finance companies and car manufacturers. Stimulated for what though? For future disaster for thousands?

So what if 1.1 million people bought cars? What does that achieve if it send too many people broke?

I said 36,000 within a year. One year. Beyond that I have stated there will be 50,000-100,000 defaulters. That is conservative. There could be twice as many. A huge number by any standards. Most of these buyers have given no security for their loan. WIth interest rates comparitively low by international standards there should be significantly fewer defaulters than the US.

You have lied. It is not 50,000 to 100,000. You made up those numbers. It is 500. Security for a car loan the car.

The USA has a rate many times higher than Thailand. That's the fact jack!

I hope you don't own a business.

Your ability to close your eyes to the situation would make for some spectacular losses.

[icare999]

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It appears that we have been defaulted on , the missus bought a 1.5 in December 2012 with the promise of 100,000 back from the government and we still have nothing

The missus has never previously had a car in her name ?

Nope she passed her test in 2012 and we got a fiesta for her. She went with a bit of an angry mob to Bangkok in April this year and they promised everyone would get their money. Ive read up about it once and apparently it should happen in this tax year. To be honest its not really hurting us financially but I imagine it is hurting some people. It also doesn't instill much confidence if future "Schemes" are introduced

Maybe it would be good to see the default figures of government unpaid rebates.

My son was due his rebate in April this year. On enquiry he was told they had lost the paperwork and new forms were required with the promise it would be rectified within 2 months. He followed up in May, the officer had apparently incorrectly filled out the 2nd lot of forms and he had to go back to the office again, new forms and a further 2 months. None of these problems were proactively advised, the information only proffered under enquiry. Needless to say, we are still waiting. We are dealing with the provincial office, they are now blaming Bangkok. It is a 100km round trip to this office, the boy has been at least 4 times. It smells very much like a delaying tactic to me. Maybe he should start claiming expenses.

I know of another such case, with an even longer delay.

I wonder how quickly the Finance Dept. will reclaim, and to what extent enforce, the reimbursement of rebates paid that are now voided by defaults. - No doubt with astonishing efficiency.

As I've always said the scam mostly benefited the well off and rich buying cars for their kids We k now at least 20 people who bought under scheme and live in a quite poor Thai village. Around 18 bought by people who would have bought anyway or brought forward a purchase or for their Thai girlfriends who would never have bought on their own and 2 who bought from our village could and do to have income to make repayments and will certainly loose the cars. Worse i guess those poor who really should not have been duped will now have no car but have huge debt to pay shortfall and i guess rebate back.

Another wonderful Taksin scam to male his clan and hangers on richer and poor poorer and so under their total control

[thailiketoo]

As I've always said the scam mostly benefited the well off and rich buying cars for their kids We k now at least 20 people who bought under scheme and live in a quite poor Thai village. Around 18 bought by people who would have bought anyway or brought forward a purchase or for their Thai girlfriends who would never have bought on their own and 2 who bought from our village could and do to have income to make repayments and will certainly loose the cars. Worse i guess those poor who really should not have been duped will now have no car but have huge debt to pay shortfall and i guess rebate back.

Another wonderful Taksin scam to male his clan and hangers on richer and poor poorer and so under their total control

What did you always say when only 500 defaulted? Gee, 500 is a lot for rich families?

[thailiketoo]

You have lied. It is not 50,000 to 100,000. You made up those numbers. It is 500. Security for a car loan the car.

The USA has a rate many times higher than Thailand. That's the fact jack!

I hope you don't own a business.

Your ability to close your eyes to the situation would make for some spectacular losses.

The first thing about owning a business is not making up numbers. Check the facts. Just the facts.

[metisdead]

Some off topic and nonsense posts have been removed.

[icare999]

As I've always said the scam mostly benefited the well off and rich buying cars for their kids We k now at least 20 people who bought under scheme and live in a quite poor Thai village. Around 18 bought by people who would have bought anyway or brought forward a purchase or for their Thai girlfriends who would never have bought on their own and 2 who bought from our village could and do to have income to make repayments and will certainly loose the cars. Worse i guess those poor who really should not have been duped will now have no car but have huge debt to pay shortfall and i guess rebate back.

Another wonderful Taksin scam to male his clan and hangers on richer and poor poorer and so under their total control

What did you always say when only 500 defaulted? Gee, 500 is a lot for rich families?

what on earth are you taking about my point is most who bought were from my experience very well off and many paid cash except 2 in our village. Several here have also said they bought for their girlfriends so IMO most wont default since they could have bought anyway and many would have down so anyway. Poor will mostly all default in end because if your earning 10k baht a month you simply can't make repayments and whoever reckoned their was any credit check must live in another country or at least not where we live We know for a fact 2 thais who have bought 1.5 million baht houses on full refit who earn around 10-12,000 a month and while for first 2 years they pay 0% interest it then goes up to 7%

do the maths stupid Taksin scam

[thailiketoo]

As I've always said the scam mostly benefited the well off and rich buying cars for their kids We k now at least 20 people who bought under scheme and live in a quite poor Thai village. Around 18 bought by people who would have bought anyway or brought forward a purchase or for their Thai girlfriends who would never have bought on their own and 2 who bought from our village could and do to have income to make repayments and will certainly loose the cars. Worse i guess those poor who really should not have been duped will now have no car but have huge debt to pay shortfall and i guess rebate back.

Another wonderful Taksin scam to male his clan and hangers on richer and poor poorer and so under their total control

What did you always say when only 500 defaulted? Gee, 500 is a lot for rich families?

what on earth are you taking about my point is most who bought were from my experience very well off and many paid cash except 2 in our village. Several here have also said they bought for their girlfriends so IMO most wont default since they could have bought anyway and many would have down so anyway. Poor will mostly all default in end because if your earning 10k baht a month you simply can't make repayments and whoever reckoned their was any credit check must live in another country or at least not where we live We know for a fact 2 thais who have bought 1.5 million baht houses on full refit who earn around 10-12,000 a month and while for first 2 years they pay 0% interest it then goes up to 7%

do the maths stupid Taksin scam

1. You wrote, "As I've always said the scam mostly benefited the well off and rich buying cars for their kids We k now at least 20 people who bought under scheme and live in a quite poor Thai village."

So no poor people bought cars using the scheme?

2. You wrote, "do the maths stupid Taksin scam" Only 500 out of more than one million have defaulted. So no scam.

Either way you are wrong.

[ginjag]

Really? I'm so very surprised.

600K to 1.2M cars being sold to individuals who make 8k to 15K baht / mo. Surprise, surprise.

You too? I was also surprised that only 500 have defaulted. Seems like it was a smashing success eh?

You re cap on this thread how many times your answer has been just this,------do you stutter ???

[arthurwait]

Ah yes here are those different numbers.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/22/us-thailand-autos-idUSBRE98L0JJ20130922

[thailiketoo]

Really? I'm so very surprised.

600K to 1.2M cars being sold to individuals who make 8k to 15K baht / mo. Surprise, surprise.

You too? I was also surprised that only 500 have defaulted. Seems like it was a smashing success eh?

You re cap on this thread how many times your answer has been just this,------do you stutter ???

You keep making up numbers and false conclusions from the false assumptions I'll keep posting the real ones.

[spermwhale]

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So that means all the populist policies have failed,but some people

made a lot of money out of them, so thats OK?.

regards Worgeordie

You're wrong.

They sold 1,060,000 cars and only 500 people have defaulted? That's like .04% failure rate. It's numerically insignificant. Even if the other 12,000 at risk default the numbers are miniscule and not even close to half a percent.

[thailiketoo]

Ah yes here are those different numbers.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/22/us-thailand-autos-idUSBRE98L0JJ20130922

Why don't you start a new thread? Your information is only a year old. One would think that authors of the current topic were aware of it as they are both anti the last administration points of view.

[arthurwait]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-23859931

Household debt from 55% of GDP to 80% .

[alanrchase]

So that means all the populist policies have failed,but some people

made a lot of money out of them, so thats OK?.

regards Worgeordie

You're wrong.

They sold 1,060,000 cars and only 500 people have defaulted? That's like .04% failure rate. It's numerically insignificant. Even if the other 12,000 at risk default the numbers are miniscule and not even close to half a percent.

The figure of 1,060,000 is only of use in your equation if they were all purchaced with loans. As previously stated people also paid cash.

To get the "facts" you need to know how many were bought with loans.

[arthurwait]

http://investvine.com/thailands-first-car-buyer-incentive-scheme-collapsed/

[arthurwait]

http://www.asianewsnet.net/Thailands-first-car-scheme-has-hit-people-also-try-48187.html

[arthurwait]

Ah yes here are those different numbers.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/22/us-thailand-autos-idUSBRE98L0JJ20130922

Why don't you start a new thread? Your information is only a year old. One would think that authors of the current topic were aware of it as they are both anti the last administration points of view.

Oh Kerry. How many more now then ?

[gringo99]

Too expensive a car in Thailand when u compare to middle salary as my exgf work nurse she pay 7900 b month for new vios .here salary 8500 b no pay rent but she make overtime for can pay a car . Lol always wonder work for a car

[bdenner]

I hope you don't own a business.

Your ability to close your eyes to the situation would make for some spectacular losses.

The first thing about owning a business is not making up numbers. Check the facts. Just the facts.

Here's an assessment!

In our Amphur there are some 300 +/- 10% Farang (residing here more than 6 months a year) within a 50 KM radius and I don't know em all. About 40% have a car and I don't know em all. Some 20% of the vehicles are on finance, a statistic from the guys I do know.

So out of the 24 vehicles on finance, I know as FACT the 2 have been repossessed. I witnessed both.

So statistically 8.33% of Farang living in the Isaan forfeit on car loans (OK, technically it was their TW). Don't you have to wonder how many Thais find themselves (or are going too) in the same situation.

Business is not only based on facts but 1001 other variables. Based on the above:- If I were in the car finance business I would not be giving a Thai with a Farang guarantor any preferential treatment.

The 500 figure is crap, there has to be double or treble that here, in Udon, just looking at the near new cars packed to the hilt in our used car lots. OK maybe not all repossessions, some could well be voluntary sales.

The figures are just not there, an average school teacher here is on about 12000 a month. How is it possible they pay 7000 over 72 months. That is the market this scheme was targeting.

[gringo99]

Believe me they can my exgf earn 8500 baht nurse in ubon ratchathani she not pay rent and her credit car 7900 baht . She make overtime in her hospital or go work in private clinic weekend or some day when she is not busy in her hospital mean sleep all night no patient .

Thai people can make everything for own car its a dream for them . Its like for some forgeiner dream go live in Thailand u can do all ur best

[metisdead]

A post containing inflammatory accusations has been removed.

[mercman24]

Reading all these posts with interest, why do all you posters religiously quote "500 defaulters"when we all know THIS IS THAILAND,for petes sake, as one earlier poster quoted, on tourist figures, just think of a number, and the "gullible" will swallow it, come on,you guys are intelligent, they never ever, publish true figures, it is all about losing face, like i know 2 thai ladies who had the new cars, all i get is "my car is more expensive than hers" and i have 72 months to pay for it, yep status symbol.its gonna bite them in the ass soon.

[ukrules]

that means it was a big succes if only 500 people do not meet payments....

they have sold hundred thousands of cars.

again big succes!

A success for who ?? the poor ?? government ??? thousands of cars on the market, could bring down second hand prices though.

Well the used car prices are artificially high anyway so a good slump in the market is long overdue.

[metisdead]

A series of nonsense bickering posts have disappeared.

[Robert24]

How could you possibly think your anecdotal evidence trumps hard facts. 500 people defaulted. Not some number you made up based on a few folks you know in Issan. If you want to make the case that you can't trust any numbers from the Thai or other governments OK but it's not accepted by the people who run the world (IMF, World bank, UN and so on). If you know more than all those people surly you could get a job as a top economist making millions a year.

Well to be fair a healthy amount of skepticism when looking at statistics is ok. I'm an economist and look at a lot of data every day, be it GDP growth data, CPI inflation and so on and sometimes it's worth wile to question whether what you see make sense. Let me give you an example. If a country has flat growth on electricity consumption and the government publishes more than 7% GDP growth, you have to be skeptical whether the government published data is accurate. I can give you many more examples.

Now in this case, I'm not saying 500 is wrong, but I am saying I'm skeptical whether this number is accurate on the basis that

a) say if 50% of the 1,000,000 (first time buyer scheme) took out a loan, the 500 defaults ytd would be 0.05% ytd and maybe about 0.1% on annualised.

looking at car auctions just in my province, the amount of reposessed cars being auctioned are a lot higher, just for 1 province. As I said, Chiang Mai alone is about 500 per month/6000 vehicles per year. Now this includes second hand and obviously cars not from this scheme.

Maybe I'm not reading this article correctly or I'm missing something else.