Islamic fanatics have changed the Middle East dynamic

[RickBradford]

Physics says that two objects cannot exist in the same place at the same time, but I think the close proximity of large numbers of Islamic fanatics gathered from all over the world, to a MOAB fuel-air explosive would be an experiment worth trying.

There is no possibility of negotiating with these people. Deal with them in terms they understand.

[Estrada]

The War of Civilizations has already started (Way back with Bush 1). Thanks USA!!

started way before that event, a reasonable timeline would be the French & British inference that picked up momentum around 150 years ago. Then look at the US views at URL below.

http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/presquote.html

Come come now, it all started the first time jihadists marched out of the Arabian peninsula in the 8th century and has happened periodically ever since with rest bites coming during periods such as when Western colonialism was the dominant power in the world.

Not forgetting the Roman Catholic jihadists (holy war) who gave us the Spanish and various other Inquisitions from 1232 until 1834. Thousands of jews, protestants, atheists, muslims and anyone that refused to adopt the Roman Catholic faith were horribly tortured, burnt alive at the stake. My ancestors fled from France to England to escape torture and death from the Roman Catholic jihadists in the 14th Century. Islam was started 600 years after Catholism so the Islamisic "Inquisition" is at a stage equivalent to that of the Catholics in historical terms.

[simple1]

Physics says that two objects cannot exist in the same place at the same time, but I think the close proximity of large numbers of Islamic fanatics gathered from all over the world, to a MOAB fuel-air explosive would be an experiment worth trying.

There is no possibility of negotiating with these people. Deal with them in terms they understand.

There are more than a million, maybe heading to two million civilians, in areas contolled by IS. Why people think that interdiction bombing of IS will resolve the current conflict I do not know.

Iraq will not attack the main IS bases in Syria.

Kurds will not attack the main IS bases in Syria.

US/NATO will not attack the main IS bases in Syria.

Currently none of them will launch a ground war on IS in Syria, Northern or Western Iraq, so how on earth are the IS controlled areas going to be retaken?

[arjunadawn]

The War of Civilizations has already started (Way back with Bush 1). Thanks USA!!

It started approximately 632CE.

[arjunadawn]

The War of Civilizations has already started (Way back with Bush 1). Thanks USA!!

started way before that event, a reasonable timeline would be the French & British inference that picked up momentum around 150 years ago. Then look at the US views at URL below.

http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/presquote.html

Come come now, it all started the first time jihadists marched out of the Arabian peninsula in the 8th century and has happened periodically ever since with rest bites coming during periods such as when Western colonialism was the dominant power in the world.

Not forgetting the Roman Catholic jihadists (holy war) who gave us the Spanish and various other Inquisitions from 1232 until 1834. Thousands of jews, protestants, atheists, muslims and anyone that refused to adopt the Roman Catholic faith were horribly tortured, burnt alive at the stake. My ancestors fled from France to England to escape torture and death from the Roman Catholic jihadists in the 14th Century. Islam was started 600 years after Catholism so the Islamisic "Inquisition" is at a stage equivalent to that of the Catholics in historical terms.

Indeed, 7-8th century is where it began. Show me your guestimation when this began and I'll show you a western educated student. Western students have a fractured, ad hoc account of world history. Globally, the occupation of Spain, the crusades, etc., are footnotes to a brutal expansion genocide that began in earnest in the 8th century and slaughtered, by some estimates, over 100,000,000.00 million people as the hordes swept across Persia into the sub continent and Central Asia. Bush1 and later actions hardly make a ripple beside the travesty that is this viral ideology.

Not by reason but by sword. Not by merit but by slaughter. Not by self evidence but by submission. This is what was sowed for 1300 years; it's hardly correct any contemporary activities of the West approach this horror.

[Mister Fixit]

"If there ever was an argument for the support of US intervention in Iraq, this is probably the best chance in a long while to mount it."

Maybe this time they will find the weapons of mass destruction.

I know where they are - up there on Cloud Nine in Cloud Cuckoo Land ...

[sgtsabai]

arjunadawn, with the exception of one or two members of this forum you seem to have some of the best real knowledge available. What is your take on this: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28826349 . Is the tide turning? God forbid another "light at the end of the tunnel".

[sgtsabai]

oops, something went wrong this was supposed to be part off my last post.

I think no end in my grandchildren's life, it's been going on for centuries, we just don't know much. Yea, I studied "Western Civilization" a bit in college, with the exception of a couple of teachers, propaganda. I've always had the impression that the US made promises to the Kurds way back when and didn't keep them.

While a bit off subject, I'm always curious as to how many actual "boots on the ground" we have. I know we had more "boots on the ground" early on than many realize for Desert Storm, wonder about now. I was attending an "Officer Survival" course down in southern New Mexico and the instructor was a former Navy SEAL, Vietnam Vet. While half the class thought USMC and SEAL were going to kill each other, you I know understand, we quickly became good friends. He had one of them thar new fangled satellite phones and was in daily touch with some of his old team members, instant and up to the minute reports. For those, we sat alone and did not share with others. It was a long range rifleman's dream.

[Thorgal]

Seastallion, you are correct on all except on one point- if I may. Had the US moved against Asad you are surely correct this dynamic would be very different today. I agree.

However, the mid objectives of IS are known, via their own statements. First, as a child of al queda they too have primary targets, and then subsequent. As I previously instructed Trends in International Terrorism I always found people surprised to learn that the proximate targets of Jihadists were always local arab strongmen; blasphemers to jihadi. The Great and Little Satan actually come later. Nevertheless, IS has already suggested a strike in NY (...see you in New York), and declared the IS flag will "fly over the White House," and that is their aim. (I hope I didn't misinterpret your post).

At last, someone who appears to actually know what he is talking about, not just a cut and paste keyboard warrior...someone I can learn from and perhaps change my stance.

Very interesting, Ajunadawn. Thanks.

Do post more.

Yes, please share your knowlledge from your visits to Iraq !

Sarcasm? No matter; my years throughout Iraq and Iraqi-Kurdistan only had context thru the many years in surrounding Muslim countries. Many people have similar travel experiences. However, my work dealt specifically with these OP matters at a national level, not locally. And yes, while my opinion is just that, I try to reason cogently with dispassion.

So did you went to Iraq ? Yes or not ?

I was in '76-'77 in Kufa, not far from Najaf and close to the Euphrate.

Long before the US made some fieldtrips.

Please share some travel or internet news experiences from yours and explain your talks about Great and Little Satans.

There was no IS in that time by the way.

[arjunadawn]

Thorgol

I was in '76-'77 in Kufa, not far from Najaf and close to the Euphrate.

Long before the US made some fieldtrips.

Please share some travel or internet news experiences from yours and explain your talks about Great and Little Satans. There was no IS in that time by the way.

I'm sorry, I thought I Indicated yes, I was there. I first went to Iraq in 2002 after leaving Kabul with a detour to Jakarta following the first Bali bombings. I spent the better part of the next 5-7 years (not tours) in Iraq in various locations. When not in Iraq my "travels" took me to Sanaa, Islamabad, Amman, Al Ain, Beirut, and other vacation spots. I was the first cell to develop Indonesia's Detachment 88. I was the core cell to establish and set up the Iraqi Bureau of Diplomatic Protection and ERU, Emergency Response Unit. I trained Alalaki, Malaki, & Barzani's Kurdish bodyguards and later expanded their training in Erbil. I provided prolonged close protection for StratCom reporters in the Red Zone. We set up and developed the Yemenese Crisis Response Teams; followed up in same for NWFP in Islamabad. I was also an officer in a different Arab army. I am not Arab.

The 70s were a curious time to be there. I'm more familiar with Baghdad, Sunni Triangle, Hilah, Dyalah Provence, and the north. I know this part of the world. I (think) I am now retired; if my aim holds.

[arjunadawn]

oops, something went wrong this was supposed to be part off my last post. I think no end in my grandchildren's life, it's been going on for centuries, we just don't know much. Yea, I studied "Western Civilization" a bit in college, with the exception of a couple of teachers, propaganda. I've always had the impression that the US made promises to the Kurds way back when and didn't keep them. While a bit off subject, I'm always curious as to how many actual "boots on the ground" we have. I know we had more "boots on the ground" early on than many realize for Desert Storm, wonder about now. I was attending an "Officer Survival" course down in southern New Mexico and the instructor was a former Navy SEAL, Vietnam Vet. While half the class thought USMC and SEAL were going to kill each other, you I know understand, we quickly became good friends. He had one of them thar new fangled satellite phones and was in daily touch with some of his old team members, instant and up to the minute reports. For those, we sat alone and did not share with others. It was a long range rifleman's dream.

My closest friend, Ike, (now deceased) was on the ground in "Kurdistan" prior to and at onset of Desert Storm. He was a commo man in the 10th SFG(A) back then. We had losses then too, though I don't know if those got wrapped up in the final conflict numbers.

I have not see the link yet but I will tell you that it is hardly a secret, though not announced policy, that the US (Forces at least) have a deep respect and "like" for the Kurds. I hardly think this is due to any perceived injustice they have received in the past. The Kurds look different; most have Hellenistic genes. Most speak differently then the ubiquitous Arab. And, while I am reluctant to say this, most seemed... smarter! Perhaps this is unfair and they were simply more motivated. In any event, even at the nastiest of 2204-2006 Erbil was a relative paradise. I do believe that these associations between US and Kurds do stem from your observation: a desire to see the Kurds establish autonomy, if not a State (as you know, Kurdistan would necessarily infringe on Iran and Turkey- thus the greater issues). Many do not realize the lengths Saddam went to in resettling Sunnis as far north as could be sustained; a good example is Kirkuk, but only one example.

Those with the most to lose are Kurds. There will come a point where the Sunni advance will become insufferable to the Shia majority further south and there will be significant causalities. It is stunning to me that Iran has not interceded. To date they have been suffering through their proxy, Al Malaki, but with his stepping down it is unclear how events will proceed. It should be noted that the US supports Al Malaki's successor. What ever this means the fact that the US supports the new guy should cause consternation in interested observers. The US, in a shockingly naive and destructive foreign policy development, has already called for Iran to have a greater role in addressing the ISIS issue. It is dreamlike and surreal to advance terrorist armies in Syria to break the contiguous stranglehold Iran has through the middle east and simultaneously hand Iraq to Iran... and invite Iran to entrench its hegemony in Iraq. A few things can easily be gleaned from this: There is an overarching policy of the west but it can only be deduced through the smog of half measures, mistakes, and egregious negligence to both their constituents at home (the threat rises) and the locals on the ground (genocide). Groups like ISIS have predated the West's current meddling. However, this particular monster is a creation of the West. Indeed, Al Baghdahi was solely released for this purpose.

[sgtsabai]

Damn, I do believe you are correct again. http://www.globalresearch.ca/isis-leader-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-trained-by-israeli-mossad-nsa-documents-reveal/5391593.

[Asiantravel]

oops, something went wrong this was supposed to be part off my last post. I think no end in my grandchildren's life, it's been going on for centuries, we just don't know much. Yea, I studied "Western Civilization" a bit in college, with the exception of a couple of teachers, propaganda. I've always had the impression that the US made promises to the Kurds way back when and didn't keep them. While a bit off subject, I'm always curious as to how many actual "boots on the ground" we have. I know we had more "boots on the ground" early on than many realize for Desert Storm, wonder about now. I was attending an "Officer Survival" course down in southern New Mexico and the instructor was a former Navy SEAL, Vietnam Vet. While half the class thought USMC and SEAL were going to kill each other, you I know understand, we quickly became good friends. He had one of them thar new fangled satellite phones and was in daily touch with some of his old team members, instant and up to the minute reports. For those, we sat alone and did not share with others. It was a long range rifleman's dream.

My closest friend, Ike, (now deceased) was on the ground in "Kurdistan" prior to and at onset of Desert Storm. He was a commo man in the 10th SFG(A) back then. We had losses then too, though I don't know if those got wrapped up in the final conflict numbers.

I have not see the link yet but I will tell you that it is hardly a secret, though not announced policy, that the US (Forces at least) have a deep respect and "like" for the Kurds. I hardly think this is due to any perceived injustice they have received in the past. The Kurds look different; most have Hellenistic genes. Most speak differently then the ubiquitous Arab. And, while I am reluctant to say this, most seemed... smarter! Perhaps this is unfair and they were simply more motivated. In any event, even at the nastiest of 2204-2006 Erbil was a relative paradise. I do believe that these associations between US and Kurds do stem from your observation: a desire to see the Kurds establish autonomy, if not a State (as you know, Kurdistan would necessarily infringe on Iran and Turkey- thus the greater issues). Many do not realize the lengths Saddam went to in resettling Sunnis as far north as could be sustained; a good example is Kirkuk, but only one example.

Those with the most to lose are Kurds. There will come a point where the Sunni advance will become insufferable to the Shia majority further south and there will be significant causalities. It is stunning to me that Iran has not interceded. To date they have been suffering through their proxy, Al Malaki, but with his stepping down it is unclear how events will proceed. It should be noted that the US supports Al Malaki's successor. What ever this means the fact that the US supports the new guy should cause consternation in interested observers. The US, in a shockingly naive and destructive foreign policy development, has already called for Iran to have a greater role in addressing the ISIS issue. It is dreamlike and surreal to advance terrorist armies in Syria to break the contiguous stranglehold Iran has through the middle east and simultaneously hand Iraq to Iran... and invite Iran to entrench its hegemony in Iraq. A few things can easily be gleaned from this: There is an overarching policy of the west but it can only be deduced through the smog of half measures, mistakes, and egregious negligence to both their constituents at home (the threat rises) and the locals on the ground (genocide). Groups like ISIS have predated the West's current meddling. However, this particular monster is a creation of the West. Indeed, Al Baghdahi was solely released for this purpose.

" However, this particular monster is a creation of the West "

for what end goal ?

[Ulysses G.]

However, this particular monster is a creation of the West. Indeed, Al Baghdahi was solely released for this purpose.

Sounds like a conspiracy theory. Do have any evidence of this from a credible source?

[simple1]

However, this particular monster is a creation of the West. Indeed, Al Baghdahi was solely released for this purpose.

Sounds like a conspiracy theory. Do have any evidence of this from a credible source?

Some people believe the Israelis and some Western democracies are deliberately creating an environmemnt for the Clash of Civilisations. Some examples below, there are many others.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/wiping-out-the-christians-of-syria-and-iraq-to-remap-the-mid-east-prerequisite-to-a-clash-of-civilizations/5394075

http://www.globalresearch.ca/wiping-out-the-christians-of-syria-and-iraq-to-remap-the-mid-east-prerequisite-to-a-clash-of-civilizations-ii/5394356

[arjunadawn]

" However, this particular monster is a creation of the West "

for what end goal ?

Multifold; I suspect. ISIS enables a proxy to represent the Arab monarchies are are directly threatened by Shia expansion. Iraq is increasingly within the Shia/Iran fold. ISIS facilitates the means to fracture Iraq into three divisions that earlier US think tank policy hawks urged but a different track to keep Iraq intact was employed, resulting in the debacle we see today. These geographical boundaries are all artificial, having been created by the west; it could never have been sustained.

I believe it's self evident that global policy makers, who have consistently pushed the creation of regional amalgams such as ASEAN, NATO, NAFTA, UN, North Atlantic counsel, and other supranational entries to later be subsumed under a newly empowered UN, believe the return of a caliphate-like partner that represents a considerable block of the currently fractured Muslim world, would be a viable trading partner and self-police upstarts and malcontents- self-interest, of course. I'm confident that this is a strategic aim for the west. I am equally confident that this was not introduced by people familiar with Islam. There is no way, in the modern world, with the apocalyptic eschatology of multiple players, that this plan is sound idea. They've opened Pandora's Box.

[sgtsabai]

If indeed this is the west's plan, and yes our "foreign policy" advisors are that stupid, we are looking at never ending war. Oh wait, how can a war against a non-entity (was against terror, war against drugs etc.) ever end? I guess as long as it is making billions for some and bankrupting everybody else who cares, right? I mean what is a human life worth compared to the almighty dollar, nothing?

[iancnx]

OP should read:

American Foreign Policy interference in the Middle East (and the Stans) costs millions of innocent lives.

[Seastallion]

However, this particular monster is a creation of the West. Indeed, Al Baghdahi was solely released for this purpose.

Sounds like a conspiracy theory. Do have any evidence of this from a credible source?

Go ahead an deride intelligent opinions such as Arjunadawn's and this guy.....

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/07/baghdadi-impostor-20147991513785260.html

But these opinions have so much more weight than anyone else here.

[arjunadawn]

However, this particular monster is a creation of the West. Indeed, Al Baghdahi was solely released for this purpose.

Sounds like a conspiracy theory. Do have any evidence of this from a credible source?

Good point. I don't like when folks don't attribute. The first sentence is fairly obvious and variously gleaned in the public record. The second sentence I've seen no where else; its just my gut sense; even the timelines marry- but still my thoughts only. A conspiracy theory? No. But your point is fair. I don't prefer rumor. I should have been clear by stating so.

[arjunadawn]

However, this particular monster is a creation of the West. Indeed, Al Baghdahi was solely released for this purpose.

Sounds like a conspiracy theory. Do have any evidence of this from a credible source?

Some people believe the Israelis and some Western democracies are deliberately creating an environmemnt for the Clash of Civilisations. Some examples below, there are many others.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/wiping-out-the-christians-of-syria-and-iraq-to-remap-the-mid-east-prerequisite-to-a-clash-of-civilizations/5394075

http://www.globalresearch.ca/wiping-out-the-christians-of-syria-and-iraq-to-remap-the-mid-east-prerequisite-to-a-clash-of-civilizations-ii/5394356

Yes, you are correct. I have spent my life becoming a self made man (to whatever extent I have succeeded) and the landscape of my own thoughts is precious to me; I don't easily go with the flow, or join "theories." I have no idea to what extent Israel would be involved. In many regards I would think they might be read in, but otherwise incidental. I am aware of various thoughts of this and will read these links. GR has some great pieces. There would be a requirement to control Israel, or placate them with some carrot as Israel already holds the final policy that their ultimate security is their own, and could be iffy if not "read in."

For those who think this very suggestion stinks of silly conspiracy theory, you are highly uninformed. It is not. Moreover, diplomatic/military affairs such as this have been the rule rather then the exception in history. All one has to do is look at the various historical "Great Game" skirmishes between Russia and GB playing out across central Asia to take learning lesson.

It is a fact that balkanizing the middle east first would enable the natural (ethnic) lines of drift to be redrawn and it then collated into a partner, or adversary if necessary. Right now ground facts are unworkable.

[Seastallion]

" However, this particular monster is a creation of the West "

for what end goal ?

Multifold; I suspect. ISIS enables a proxy to represent the Arab monarchies are are directly threatened by Shia expansion. Iraq is increasingly within the Shia/Iran fold. ISIS facilitates the means to fracture Iraq into three divisions that earlier US think tank policy hawks urged but a different track to keep Iraq intact was employed, resulting in the debacle we see today. These geographical boundaries are all artificial, having been created by the west; it could never have been sustained.

I believe it's self evident that global policy makers, who have consistently pushed the creation of regional amalgams such as ASEAN, NATO, NAFTA, UN, North Atlantic counsel, and other supranational entries to later be subsumed under a newly empowered UN, believe the return of a caliphate-like partner that represents a considerable block of the currently fractured Muslim world, would be a viable trading partner and self-police upstarts and malcontents- self-interest, of course. I'm confident that this is a strategic aim for the west. I am equally confident that this was not introduced by people familiar with Islam. There is no way, in the modern world, with the apocalyptic eschatology of multiple players, that this plan is sound idea. They've opened Pandora's Box.

And also, as this guy suggests, it is in Israel's interest to have the Arab factions in turmoil.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/07/baghdadi-impostor-20147991513785260.html

[Ulysses G.]

The Arab factions have been in turmoil since time immemorial.

[arjunadawn]

The Arab factions have been in turmoil since time immemorial.

Yes, you are correct. Under varying caliphs there was significant unity in the sunni world, however. What is different today significantly regards the arbitrary lines drawn to establish the regions and countries that have never existed in that area of the world. Locked in this morass are peoples with often great enmity. This effort may have been to allow Europe a form of continued homage from the installed monarches of the house of saud and hashemites, etc., but the days of this utility has expired.

It must always be remembered that nationalism means little in this region. Invariably the loyalties lie with family, tribe, and Islam. There is a lot of room for conflict here. The west rarely notes these various requirements of loyalty and allegiance.

[Seastallion]

The Arab factions have been in turmoil since time immemorial.

Source please, as you are so fond of demanding them when anyone makes an unsubstantiated claim. Keep in mind too, your penchant for homing in on semantics; "time immemorial" is a very long time that you'll have to provide proof of.

It is indeed in Israel's interest for Arab factions to be clashing. Whether they have been in turmoil for ages or not is irrelevant.

[Ulysses G.]

The Arab factions have been in turmoil since time immemorial.

Source please, as you are so fond of demanding them when anyone makes an unsubstantiated claim.

That is only when it is not common knowledge. Do you want a link to prove that the earth is round and revolves around the sun too?

[tw25rw]

The Arab factions have been in turmoil since time immemorial.

Source please, as you are so fond of demanding them when anyone makes an unsubstantiated claim.

That is only when it is not common knowledge. Do you want a link to prove that the earth is round and revolves around the sun too?

It's a good thing too. How dangerous would they be if they could actually work together?

[Mosha]

the funny thing about the situation is the USA's stance on going to war with ISIS.

Against Saddam, everyone was against the idea, and they went twice.

Against ISIS, I guess a majority would support coalition forces there to act against ISIS, but this time, no, the government has learned its lesson and won't send soldiers in.

Was GW 10 years too early? Or... would ISIS have happened at all without GW?

You only have to look at the demographics. The Shias control a relatively small region. I make no wonder the Saudis were happy to have the west fight Saddam. Where is their support now. The wesyt needs to get out of the Wahabi influence.

[sgtsabai]

"The west rarely notes these various requirements of loyalty and allegiance." True but an understatement. The "west" has shown amazing ignorance to other peoples cultures and morays for years. Back to days when the Pilgrams landed. Uncle Ho supported and worked with the OSS during WWII and we screwed him and let the French back in, hence the debacle in VN. I talked with a contractor that was on R&R from Afghanistan in spring of '06. He told me then we had lost and had no chance of winning because again the US had no knowledge of the Afghan people, culture, society etc. Also told me when one of mortar shells fell in the local war lords poppy fields instead of the compound that was the end of shelling for months, something American troops had been unable to do.

[Seastallion]

The Arab factions have been in turmoil since time immemorial.

Source please, as you are so fond of demanding them when anyone makes an unsubstantiated claim.

That is only when it is not common knowledge. Do you want a link to prove that the earth is round and revolves around the sun too?

You haven't quoted me completely (which may be against forum rules?), I also mentioned your penchant for semantics. I would like you to show us that Arab factions have been in turmoil since time immemorial. THAT is not common knowledge. If you can't, then recant.

Play by your own rules.