THB forecast over the next 10 years

[Longbow212]

I am working in Thailand and get paid in Baht. I keep my savings in a Thai bank account and usually take a significant portion of my savings back to the UK on an annual visit. This year I took a minimal amount of money back as I believe the exchange rate is likely to regain some of the 25% lost over the last year once political stability returns (hopefully in the next year or so).

I was wondering what those people in the know think the general trend in Baht against the Pound would be over the next 10 years. Looking at charts over the previous 10 years I see the Baht has gradually strengthened. I am curious as to whether this will increase and what the underlying reasons are.

Thanks

[anon676545345]

I'm no expert and couldn’t really guess over a ten year timeline so can only give guess based on a few factors. There has been a lot of foreign investment in Thailand over the last few years car manufacturing plants etc, that influx of foreign capital strengthened the bhat. That also coincided with quantitative easing and record low interest rates from the bank of England during the financial crisis which weakened the pound.

Foreign investment in Thailand and other emerging markets is tailing off now that companies have taken advantage of the cheap liquidity, and the bank of England is eventually going to have to gradually start raising rates so the pound should gradually strengthen against the bhat.

[bitcoinman]

Keep you cash in Europe. Never invest in thailand. They can kick you out and take a your belongings if they want.

See all these guys who bought condo and house illegall. "Don't worry we open business for you, we take care of everything and buy our condo."

Now these guys worry(Suckers sucked! ) , plenty of condo for sell everywhere.

Thailand is finished....!

Edited August 19, 2014 by bitcoinman

[konying]

Keep you cash in Europe. Never invest in thailand. They can kick you out and take a your belongings if they want.

See all these guys who bought condo and house illegall. "Don't worry we open business for you, we take care of everything and buy our condo."

Now these guys worry(Suckers sucked! ) , plenty of condo for sell everywhere.

Thailand is finished....!

The biggest nonsense I read in years.

What illegal condo's

Post 1 and I mean just 1 example of Thai government taking condo or money from a foreigner

[Naam]

Keep you cash in Europe. Never invest in thailand. They can kick you out and take a your belongings if they want.

See all these guys who bought condo and house illegall. "Don't worry we open business for you, we take care of everything and buy our condo."

Now these guys worry(Suckers sucked! ) , plenty of condo for sell everywhere.

Thailand is finished....!

The biggest nonsense I read in years.

What illegal condo's

Post 1 and I mean just 1 example of Thai government taking condo or money from a foreigner

relax! what do you expect from a "bitcoinman"?

[i claudius]

As i always say ,i am sometimes right sometimes wrong 50/50 ,but its always hard to say what is going to happen in Thailand ,over twenty odd years it still catches me out ,but i would not buy in a company name ,you never know ,better safe than sorry ,as for the baht ,a lot depends on what happens to the dollor.

[GuestHouse]

It might go up, it might go down.

While salivating over thoughts of the profit you get in one direction, pause to consider if you can stand the costs is the other.

If you cannot - spread your risk.

[lannarebirth]

Probably strengthens, possibly does not.

[TommyUK1960]

If I could give you an accurate forecast of any currency I would be trading it big time and a very wealthy man. I would not be living in Thailand.

[Naam]

Probably strengthens, possibly does not.

the big unkown factor is Burma Myanmar. will they invade Thailand again?

[Baerboxer]

10 years ago no one expected the 2008 financial crash or a lot more things. I was earning a fortune in interest. Now - well you know what happened.

Impossible to predict. Last year HSBC currency experts forecast a very weak pound in the latter months of 2013 - got that wrong. Interestingly they forecast the same this year!

All you can do is watch the trends and act accordingly - unless of course you have crystal balls

[sfokevin]

If you have an iPhone there is an app to solve your problem...

If not you can find the old version at any This/Chinese Wat...

Edited August 20, 2014 by sfokevin

[dotpoom]

Keep you cash in Europe. Never invest in thailand. They can kick you out and take a your belongings if they want.

See all these guys who bought condo and house illegall. "Don't worry we open business for you, we take care of everything and buy our condo."

Now these guys worry(Suckers sucked! ) , plenty of condo for sell everywhere.

Thailand is finished....!

How do you buy condo "illegall"

[Eric Loh]

Hard enough to predict the Baht movement next one week less 10 years.

[jedda]

ten year forecasts are impossible so make your own decisions. And, as every one knows, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Bit of a risk to have the bulk of your funds in Thailand if a non Thai.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

What country has ever prospered under a military Junta?

What country has ever prospered after a general appointed himself Prime Minister for life?

If you can answer those questions, you have a good chance of predicting the future.

[konying]

Baht value in the future largely depends on internal situation and possible changes within royal family.

Country may take different direction depending on the outcome .

Also ASEAN might be moving force, do not think anyone can be certain, only time will tell.

I do not believe it is in Thai interests for baht to keep getting stronger but many may not agree

[abrahamzvi]

It might go up, it might go down.

While salivating over thoughts of the profit you get in one direction, pause to consider if you can stand the costs is the other.

If you cannot - spread your risk.

Nobody, but nobody can tell you where the Baht is going in the next 10 years. The same applies to the US$ , the EURO, the Pound and all other currencies. Ten years ago, in 2004, did anybody think that in 2008 the whole financial structures of the world would be on the verge of collapsing? One can't be sure or safe in any currency and therefore the only way one can try and safeguard one's financial interests is spread one's risks between major currencies and then between various investments, i.e. shares, bonds. real estate and cash and this even on a small scale.

[djhotsox]

As i always say ,i am sometimes right sometimes wrong 50/50 ,but its always hard to say what is going to happen in Thailand ,over twenty odd years it still catches me out ,but i would not buy in a company name ,you never know ,better safe than sorry ,as for the baht ,a lot depends on what happens to the dollor.

And from this we've learned? Nothing. Thanks for the advice.

[i claudius]

Your welcome what pearls of knowledge do you have to import to us?

[Robert24]

Hard to say as people highlight. But my view for the short term is that the pound and dollar will strengthen on the basis of upcoming interest rate hikes and tighter monetary policy. Whereas I think the BoT will continue to keep interest rates low and be accomodative. But as people say sometimes things turn out completely different than you thinm.

[yasmarbi]

Probably strengthens, possibly does not.

the big unkown factor is Burma Myanmar. will they invade Thailand again?

Am nervous about investing in Thailand as am thinking Thailand will continue to slide downhill as China takes a firmer grip on the nation whilst the Thais just carry on thinking about today - and not about tomorrow.

Not sure what effect this would have on value of Thai baht in future.

[pchansmorn]

Let's just hope it doesn't get to strong because we retired here to save us money. If it becomes to stable we might have to move.

[BlueSkyCowboy]

As i always say ,i am sometimes right sometimes wrong 50/50 ,but its always hard to say what is going to happen in Thailand ,over twenty odd years it still catches me out ,but i would not buy in a company name ,you never know ,better safe than sorry ,as for the baht ,a lot depends on what happens to the dollor.

The $ will be in the gutter. The pound will be renamed "ounce". That would be 16 ounces per pound. I suggest that all farangs move into a place above the 7th floor in Thailand. Thai Military Bank no longer open accounts with US passports. How is a newly retired American supposed to transfer money to Thailand? I know that other banks still open accounts, but that may change also. A friend who is dual citizen, US and Swiss, lives in the US was told to close her Swiss bank account. She traveled to Switzerland, went to the bank to close the account and wanted the cash. The bank told her that it could only be transferred to a US bank account. The US is hell bent to keep the $ as the reserve currency otherwise it will drop 50% at a minimum.

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/147eb496a3339cfa

[Benmart]

IMO it's difficult to forecast long range weather, let alone a long range currency forecast.

With the world economies so intertwined, rumors of conflict, political turmoil or disease is enough to cause significant fluctuations in exhange rates.

I prefer diversification and home banking. So far, so good. I'll most likely never be a millionaire, but prefer the relative security of prudent economics. Whatever that means is up to the individual.

Edited August 20, 2014 by Benmart

[BDG]

Asia in general is on the rise. Better keep money in Asia rather than having it confiscated in the EU (the UK is not out the EU yet and will not, they stand to loose too much)

I would say to keep everything in Asia, if not Thailand because still instable, move it to Singapore.

Europe is crumbling i cannot see it getting any better

[Fab5BKK]

If you're concerned, split the risk(s)! Don't keep all your money in the same country, under the same currency.

You could open a USD / GBP / Euro, etc. bank account (offshore) in Hong Kong, Singapore, Isle of Man, etc.

[Benmart]

As i always say ,i am sometimes right sometimes wrong 50/50 ,but its always hard to say what is going to happen in Thailand ,over twenty odd years it still catches me out ,but i would not buy in a company name ,you never know ,better safe than sorry ,as for the baht ,a lot depends on what happens to the dollor.

The $ will be in the gutter. The pound will be renamed "ounce". That would be 16 ounces per pound. I suggest that all farangs move into a place above the 7th floor in Thailand. Thai Military Bank no longer open accounts with US passports. How is a newly retired American supposed to transfer money to Thailand? I know that other banks still open accounts, but that may change also. A friend who is dual citizen, US and Swiss, lives in the US was told to close her Swiss bank account. She traveled to Switzerland, went to the bank to close the account and wanted the cash. The bank told her that it could only be transferred to a US bank account. The US is hell bent to keep the $ as the reserve currency otherwise it will drop 50% at a minimum.

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/147eb496a3339cfa

Thanks for the post. I will relocate from the 4th floor to the 7th.

I will also look into the bartering system as an option. LOL.

[BlueSkyCowboy]

What country has ever prospered under a military Junta?

What country has ever prospered after a general appointed himself Prime Minister for life?

If you can answer those questions, you have a good chance of predicting the future.

Of course we can not compare the Commander in Chief in Thailand with the Ladyboy in the WH, you know the Union organizer with no knowledge of any kind except the communist procedures

[crazykopite]

Keep you cash in Europe. Never invest in thailand. They can kick you out and take a your belongings if they want.

See all these guys who bought condo and house illegall. "Don't worry we open business for you, we take care of everything and buy our condo."

Now these guys worry(Suckers sucked! ) , plenty of condo for sell everywhere.

Thailand is finished....!

It seems from your comment you got ripped off big style or are you going by hear say the op has not asked about properties/ condos he has asked where we think the Baht is going in my humble opinion I cannot see the baht going any higher than 55 to the £ over the next few years . My income is via the UK I bring it in when required depending on my needs the Halifax building society only charge £9.50 per transaction which I tend to do every two months ,however you can get much better savings rates in the Kingdom than the UK