Dr Seri predicts widespread drought in Thailand next year

[webfact]

Dr Seri predicts a dry year next year

(Photo : ThaiPBS File)

BANGKOK: -- Thailand is expected to be hard hit by widespread drought next year as a direct result of El Nino which will bring about less rains than the previous years, said Dr Seri Suparathit, director of Climate Changes and Disasters Centre of Rangsit University, on Thursday.

Water stored at the Sirikit and Bhumibol dams currently amount to 40-50 percent of their full capacities and with rains about to taper off in the middle of this month, the water reserves at the two dams will not be sufficient to feed 4-5 million rai of second crops in the Chao Phraya river basin which need about 6,000 million cubic metre of water, he said.

Dr Seri noted that the rains this year are much less than the previous years due to the onset of El Nino phenomenon and the rains which have been lashing most parts of the country this year are the result of monsoon.

He predicted that drought would continue to persist in Thailand for the next 2-3 years depending on how long the El Nino phenomenon will be. But he cautioned that after the end of the drought, it would be followed by another cycle of heavy flooding.

“That means we will have two more years to make preparations to meet with the big flood,” he said.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/dr-seri-predicts-dry-year-next-year/

-- Thai PBS 2014-09-12

[NongKhaiKid]

I'm sticking my neck out here but i predict that next year there will be heavy rain with a chance of flooding.

[54321]

it would be nice to know the level of accuracy on any of his previous predictions

[ib1b4]

I'm sticking my neck out here but i predict that next year there will be heavy rain with a chance of flooding.

Sticking your neck out? I can not even see your double chin so it is not out very far!

[NongKhaiKid]

I'm sticking my neck out here but i predict that next year there will be heavy rain with a chance of flooding.

Sticking your neck out? I can not even see your double chin so it is not out very far!

Is that the best you can do ?

[ib1b4]

I'm sticking my neck out here but i predict that next year there will be heavy rain with a chance of flooding.

Sticking your neck out? I can not even see your double chin so it is not out very far!

Is that the best you can do ?

NO ...But like your post it is simple and to the point.

[NongKhaiKid]

I'm sticking my neck out here but i predict that next year there will be heavy rain with a chance of flooding.

Sticking your neck out? I can not even see your double chin so it is not out very far!

Is that the best you can do ?

NO ...But like your post it is simple and to the point.

Are you saying both my double chins are pointed ? i better be careful of walking into walls. might damage my hard on.

[wilcopops]

He was better at solving crimes in Laos

[wilcopops]

one man's reported view, totally unsupported by any background evidence or figures.....he might as well be reading tea-leaves.

[coobah666]

same same it rains in the wet season and its dry in dry season

[JohnThailandJohn]

While not such an uniformed OP, many ignorant posts follow and sure more to come.

Drought Seen Hurting Thai Farm Output as El Nino Risk Climbs
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-11/drought-seen-hurting-thai-farm-output-as-el-nino-risk-climbs-2-.html

Southeast Asia: Historical El Niño-Related Crop Yield Impact

http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/southeast-asia-historical-el-ni-o-related-crop-yield-impact

Thailand may face severe drought in 2015: Expert

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20140409/NEWS09/140409825

El Nino seen exacerbating drought in south-east Asia

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/el-nino-seen-exacerbating-drought-in-southeast-asia-20140430-37htn.html#ixzz3D3lBt6V3

[Robby nz]

I suspect Dr Seri knows a fair bit about the weather and predicting the same than the majority of the posters on here, particularly those who have never heard of the Southern Oscillation.

[kamahele]

El Nino and the weather patterns it brings are a scientific fact. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-11/drought-seen-hurting-thai-farm-output-as-el-nino-risk-climbs-2-.html

[soalbundy]

it would be nice to know the level of accuracy on any of his previous predictions

American scientists have predicted this months ago saying the drought or reduced rainfall would start this year and last not 2 or 3 years but 5 years. It will affect the USA eastern seaboard S.E.Asia and Australia........keep some rice stocks.

[Charlie1]

While not such an uniformed OP, many ignorant posts follow and sure more to come.

Drought Seen Hurting Thai Farm Output as El Nino Risk Climbs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-11/drought-seen-hurting-thai-farm-output-as-el-nino-risk-climbs-2-.html

Southeast Asia: Historical El Niño-Related Crop Yield Impact

http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/southeast-asia-historical-el-ni-o-related-crop-yield-impact

Thailand may face severe drought in 2015: Expert

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20140409/NEWS09/140409825

El Nino seen exacerbating drought in south-east Asia

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/el-nino-seen-exacerbating-drought-in-southeast-asia-20140430-37htn.html#ixzz3D3lBt6V3

All these are more than 4 months old....

Any more recent ones out there?

As you probably know, things can change in the course of 4 months.

[meatboy]

no need for a flood prevention budget then.

[madmitch]

Since when has rainfall in Thailand tapered off in the middle of September?

[ib1b4]

Since when has rainfall in Thailand tapered off in the middle of September?

Under normal conditions it wont. Where I am the rainfall has severely tapered off this year, and September rainfall usually increases by 50% but not as yet and almost halfway into the month already.

[Tatsujin]

With all the rain and flooding these past few months, how can the dams ONLY be at 40-50% capacity . . . ?

[chainarong]

And I also predict General elections , intimidation of voters, the same miserable corrupt faces under different political party names, fishing fleet owners crying foul against allegations of human rights abuse, Un sanctions against Thailand for wild life trafficking and the re-introduction of the PTP flood mitigation programme to solve NongKhaiKid flooding worry.

[seajae]

el nino in Australia has caused some pretty bad drought years in the past so if it effects Thailand the same way we could be in for some hard times. This year in Australia they have been doing it hard with el nino starting so all we can do is wait and see, I have many friends on farms and get constant updates from them, water is scarce.

[wilcopops]

With all the rain and flooding these past few months, how can the dams ONLY be at 40-50% capacity . . . ?

Firstly - have you measured the amount of rain?

Secondly - have you reviewed the catchment areas a=nd systems for collection and storage?

Thirdly - have you been monitoring both domestic and industrial usage?

[Sayonarax]

With all the rain and flooding these past few months, how can the dams ONLY be at 40-50% capacity . . . ?

Firstly - have you measured the amount of rain?

Secondly - have you reviewed the catchment areas a=nd systems for collection and storage?

Thirdly - have you been monitoring both domestic and industrial usage?

Sure have, you want my official report?

Floods, floods and more floods. But we can call this 'Climate Change'

[Tatsujin]

With all the rain and flooding these past few months, how can the dams ONLY be at 40-50% capacity . . . ?

Firstly - have you measured the amount of rain?

Secondly - have you reviewed the catchment areas a=nd systems for collection and storage?

Thirdly - have you been monitoring both domestic and industrial usage?

Unfortunately, I don't have a Work Permit that allows me to collect that kind of data, however the more relevant question you should have asked is why haven't the Thai's done so and made provisions for improving the situation somewhat . . . we go from droughts to floods here, year on year, which kind of says they don't know shit about what they are doing.

[JohnThailandJohn]

While not such an uniformed OP, many ignorant posts follow and sure more to come.

Drought Seen Hurting Thai Farm Output as El Nino Risk Climbs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-11/drought-seen-hurting-thai-farm-output-as-el-nino-risk-climbs-2-.html

Southeast Asia: Historical El Niño-Related Crop Yield Impact

http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/southeast-asia-historical-el-ni-o-related-crop-yield-impact

Thailand may face severe drought in 2015: Expert

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20140409/NEWS09/140409825

El Nino seen exacerbating drought in south-east Asia

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/el-nino-seen-exacerbating-drought-in-southeast-asia-20140430-37htn.html#ixzz3D3lBt6V3

All these are more than 4 months old....

Any more recent ones out there?

As you probably know, things can change in the course of 4 months.

Are you saying that an El Nino would no longer likely to cause a drought? Or are you saying that in 4 months they now may no longer believe an El Nino is likely to occure next year? Either way, your welcome to do a Google search if you really wanted to know the answer but here is a report from last month which still indicates experts believe a significant risk of an El Nino forming that would cause droughts here.

http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/August%202014%20ESCAP%20El%20Nino%202014.pdf

[phosphorescent]

Way too much water was released from the dams prior to the rainy season in an effort to prevent floods. El Nino will add to the problem but poor planning is the main reason behind the expected drought.

[JohnThailandJohn]

El Nino and the weather patterns it brings are a scientific fact. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-11/drought-seen-hurting-thai-farm-output-as-el-nino-risk-climbs-2-.html

Do you think facts or science will stand in the way of faux superiority some folks have the need to display over anyone and anything Thai?

[JohnThailandJohn]

With all the rain and flooding these past few months, how can the dams ONLY be at 40-50% capacity . . . ?

If they keep them full during the raining season then there will be problems should there be big storms. However, at this point in the season, you'd think they'd want them full or near to but the article only mentions two damns and you'd have to look at the areas rainfall that feed those damns. Just because one area receives rain doesn't mean it is the same area feeding these damns. The Mekong river come in through Laos and China.

Since when has rainfall in Thailand tapered off in the middle of September?

Under normal conditions it wont. Where I am the rainfall has severely tapered off this year, and September rainfall usually increases by 50% but not as yet and almost halfway into the month already.

Rainfall in the North is generally highest iin August and starts to tapers off in September with a huge drop by October.

Way too much water was released from the dams prior to the rainy season in an effort to prevent floods. El Nino will add to the problem but poor planning is the main reason behind the expected drought.

A drought by definition is a period of abnormally low rainfall (uncontrollable) ... A drought generally causes problems everywhere and anytime they occur in the world. You can say problems that results from droughts, abnormally high rain fall, earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes around the world are due to poor planning but not really a realistic comment. Even much more unrealistic if you understand that natural disasters such as droughts cause havoc in first world nations and to expect them not to have severe effects in less developed nations.

But yes in a perfect world, we would have back-up plans for our back-up plans and be so prepared for every possible weather or other natural or unnatural abnormal occurrences that we could do away with commodity trading because each year there would be a known quantity of goods and crops produced at specific quality.

Edited September 12, 2014 by JohnThailandJohn

[balford]

Dr. Seri was proved right again and again during the big floods of 2011 and was derided by the government and that self-styled expert, Plodpasop, in particular.

Seri was present each evening on PBS television and spoke in both Thai and English, used graphics to explain his reasons and was correct in all his predictions.

Unlike many of the contributions here he actually knew what he was talking about... If he says there will be less rainfall next year then I'll believe him. He said this year would be dry and my daily rainfall and weather records confirm it.

Bob A. Relaxed in Lampang

[otherstuff1957]

With all the rain and flooding these past few months, how can the dams ONLY be at 40-50% capacity . . . ?

This year's flooding is due to poor water management infrastructure, deforestation and corruption (poorly built dykes collapsing), not due to higher than normal rainfall.

This map shows the difference from average rainfall for this year. The red areas have much less rainfall than normal and the blue have greater rainfall than average. As you can see, most of Thailand has had considerably less rainfall than average this year. Most of the areas that have had more than average rainfall drain into the Mekhong, not the Chao Phraya.