Ebola challenge 'biggest since Aids'

[webfact]

Ebola challenge 'biggest since Aids'

(BBC) The Ebola outbreak in West Africa is unlike anything since the emergence of HIV/Aids, top US medical official Thomas Frieden has said.

A fast global response could ensure that it did not become "the next Aids," the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said.

The presidents of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea appealed for more aid to help fight the disease.

The outbreak has killed more than 3,860 people, mainly in West Africa.

More than 200 health workers are among the victims.

Full story: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29555849


-- BBC 2014-10-10

[mongoose11]

Bigger than aids.

[mongoose11]

Shaking hands with someone then rubbing your eye is potentially more scary than sticking your dick in someone

[Mosha]

On the bright side. The planets over population problem will be sorted out.

[zydeco]

Why is it that everytime I hear, "The US and the West must do more to stop Ebola," I get the impression our officials and overlords mean sending lots of our money and specialists to Africa and NOT stopping potentially infected people from Africa from coming to the West?

[Krataiboy]

Not a valid comparison. The HIV virus blamed for AIDS is relatively difficult to contract. For example, the odds of acquiring it from an infected person during unprotected vaginal sexual intercourse have been calculated at less than one in a thousand for men.

Ebola, as we have learned from watching television news footage of medical teams clad from head to foot in protective gear, is easily caught - and far more difficult to contain. The high percentage of front line health workers who have become infected and died fighting the current outbreak speaks for itself.

At present, there is no clear evidence to support fears that Ebola is an airborne disease, but scientists admit the virus could mutate to spread like 'flu or the common cold - with devastating results in heavily populated areas.

[Friendly Stranger]

Why is it that everytime I hear, "The US and the West must do more to stop Ebola," I get the impression our officials and overlords mean sending lots of our money and specialists to Africa and NOT stopping potentially infected people from Africa from coming to the West?

Exactly. What the f*** are they waiting for. The best way to contain this is to close those boarders. I can now hear the flow of blood from those poor little bleeding hearts, that we should not prevent anyone from freely come and go as they please.

[Guest]

why is it that these major epidemics mostly begin in Africa these days, anyhoo they should be containing the virus in Africa, the entire effort should be to stop it from getting out and becoming a world wide problem.

[bkkcanuck8]

why is it that these major epidemics mostly begin in Africa these days, anyhoo they should be containing the virus in Africa, the entire effort should be to stop it from getting out and becoming a world wide problem.

Really? How did you figure that.... Wasn't Bird Flu china, SARS - Hong Kong, new more dangerous strains of Malaria tend to originate in Cambodia... and plenty more that originate elsewhere.....

[bkkcanuck8]

Just did a rough calculation and based on current exponential growth rate of Ebola.... it should be burning itself out by the end of 2015..... i.e. everyone exposed to it, and a high percentage dead..... According to financial advisors.... that is called a buying opportunity Of course if everyone was careful and washed their hands, there would not be this buying opportunity.... I would have to bet on the buying opportunity though since by personal observation -- at least 50% of people don't even wash their hands when going to the washroom.... so I doubt even ebola could change their habits....

[Jingthing]

Bigger than aids.

Not yet. Hopefully never. The time is now for aggressive action to prevent that.

[bkkcanuck8]

Why is it that everytime I hear, "The US and the West must do more to stop Ebola," I get the impression our officials and overlords mean sending lots of our money and specialists to Africa and NOT stopping potentially infected people from Africa from coming to the West?

Exactly. What the f*** are they waiting for. The best way to contain this is to close those boarders. I can now hear the flow of blood from those poor little bleeding hearts, that we should not prevent anyone from freely come and go as they please.

Closing borders is not the panacea when you have large borders and a frightened population.... If it were, the US would have cut off the illegal drug supply long ago. Of course monitoring incoming immigration and and sophisticated border management would help.... Singapore is one country that does this very well (they had several incursions recently and implemented a lot of hidden temperature sensors and monitoring, and of course the ever present (but hidden to most) plain clothes security. The US version of this is now to send more customs agents to monitor the borders..... and collect duties and tax the incoming ebola virus

[JDGRUEN]

I think there is a bit of a difference here.,.. like casual contact - dead in two - three weeks ... is perhaps a different sort of challenge ....

[Jingthing]

I don't think anyone has suggested it's exactly the same. Just that it's a big global threat and the world had better wake up even more and take it more seriously NOW before it is too late to realistically keep in check.

Edited October 10, 2014 by Jingthing

[bkkcanuck8]

In most western countries though the ebola virus will never become the major long term issue that HIV is, because it is not transmitted easily (yet), and the contact tracing that will typically control the incursions within a couple of generations on entry. The problem in Africa is that superstitions are interfering with the scientific medical approach (i.e. quarantined infected individuals being broken out of treatment facilities and those facilities being destroyed because they think the doctors are the source of this problem etc.). The hiding of infected people from being quarantined, etc.

What is more worrying the longer it goes on is that the virus mutates when it mixes with other pathogens. I am pretty sure if Ebola and Rabies ever mix we will be in the middle of a Zombie Apocalypse!!!!

[Farma]

As per the recent scare with that Red Cross volunteer nurse returning to Oz then worrying all and sundry with a fever I want to know why these health agencies aren't quarantining their staff in a safe area near the work for the incubation period before allowing them to fly back to their home countries.

[bkkcanuck8]

On the other hand if it does become a major pandemic..... we will have to write some new nursery rhymes for it...

[bkkcanuck8]

Hmmm.... maybe we can use this situation to our advantage.... we collect all the fresh corpses from Africa, we fly over Iraq.... and drop them on ISIS.... biological warfare without developing biological warfare agents.... I wonder if that gets around this whole war crimes problem.....

[bkkcanuck8]

I think there is a bit of a difference here.,.. like casual contact - dead in two - three weeks ... is perhaps a different sort of challenge ....

It is not that casual a contact..... It is spread typically after someone has become symptomatic (if I see someone bleeding through they eyes, I think I would run ).

Symptoms of ebola do not include coughing or sneezing, and even then it is not that easy to transmit that way and it is not airborne. Therefore the rate of transmission of ebola through casual contact of droplets through eyes, is actually quite low with the current version of the ebola virus.

Body fluids that ebola can be detected in and therefore likely transmitted through are: saliva, mucus, vomit, feces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine, and semen.

If you look at the fact that maybe just over 3K people have been infected over the last 6+ months.... and the fact that the infection has been exasperated by infected patients being broken out of treatment centres, these same centres destroyed and people fleeing like rats in highly populated areas. The additional fact that many of these same people are more afraid that this is a scam to collect organs by the doctors (mistrust of the medical community) and reverting to non scientific superstitious ways of treating a virus that did not exist during the time that these "traditions" came into being.... You begin to realize that this virus although spreading exponentially -- is in fact not easily transmitted. If this virus hits western communities, the infection rate will quickly drop below "1" and burn itself out quickly in any western country. Of course if the virus mutates in the wrong way, then things could change.....

[Mosha]

Was watching something from BBC on FB earlier. Even after they are cured. people can still pass on the virus for up to 7 weeks.

[JDGRUEN]

I think there is a bit of a difference here.,.. like casual contact - dead in two - three weeks ... is perhaps a different sort of challenge ....

It is not that casual a contact..... It is spread typically after someone has become symptomatic (if I see someone bleeding through they eyes, I think I would run ).

Symptoms of ebola do not include coughing or sneezing, and even then it is not that easy to transmit that way and it is not airborne. Therefore the rate of transmission of ebola through casual contact of droplets through eyes, is actually quite low with the current version of the ebola virus.

Body fluids that ebola can be detected in and therefore likely transmitted through are: saliva, mucus, vomit, feces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine, and semen.

If you look at the fact that maybe just over 3K people have been infected over the last 6+ months.... and the fact that the infection has been exasperated by infected patients being broken out of treatment centres, these same centres destroyed and people fleeing like rats in highly populated areas. The additional fact that many of these same people are more afraid that this is a scam to collect organs by the doctors (mistrust of the medical community) and reverting to non scientific superstitious ways of treating a virus that did not exist during the time that these "traditions" came into being.... You begin to realize that this virus although spreading exponentially -- is in fact not easily transmitted. If this virus hits western communities, the infection rate will quickly drop below "1" and burn itself out quickly in any western country. Of course if the virus mutates in the wrong way, then things could change.....

I must read different articles than you. And you must have a different idea as what casual contact means... Being close to an Ebola infected person who has symptoms means any expelling of saliva in small droplets when talking or sneezing or coughing for any reason - which humans do all the time - means that micro droplets are expelled for several feet on to a person's skin and or clothing. Or onto to an object - such as a seat arm rest which one may share in a train, bus or plane... This is not to mention - the use of public restroom where an infection Ebola person just vomited or had diarrhea - even if cleaned up partially or in whole - infectious bodily fluid particles are everywhere - on the commode - on the sink edge, on the faucet handles, etc. One does not have to share a household with an Ebola infected person to catch it from them ... So keep on day dreaming that the Ebola virus cannot be transferred casually. What I just described - adjusted for African village life accounts for a significant portion of the passing on of the Ebola Virus...

[bkkcanuck8]

I think there is a bit of a difference here.,.. like casual contact - dead in two - three weeks ... is perhaps a different sort of challenge ....

It is not that casual a contact..... It is spread typically after someone has become symptomatic (if I see someone bleeding through they eyes, I think I would run ).

Symptoms of ebola do not include coughing or sneezing, and even then it is not that easy to transmit that way and it is not airborne. Therefore the rate of transmission of ebola through casual contact of droplets through eyes, is actually quite low with the current version of the ebola virus.

Body fluids that ebola can be detected in and therefore likely transmitted through are: saliva, mucus, vomit, feces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine, and semen.

If you look at the fact that maybe just over 3K people have been infected over the last 6+ months.... and the fact that the infection has been exasperated by infected patients being broken out of treatment centres, these same centres destroyed and people fleeing like rats in highly populated areas. The additional fact that many of these same people are more afraid that this is a scam to collect organs by the doctors (mistrust of the medical community) and reverting to non scientific superstitious ways of treating a virus that did not exist during the time that these "traditions" came into being.... You begin to realize that this virus although spreading exponentially -- is in fact not easily transmitted. If this virus hits western communities, the infection rate will quickly drop below "1" and burn itself out quickly in any western country. Of course if the virus mutates in the wrong way, then things could change.....

I must read different articles than you. And you must have a different idea as what casual contact means... Being close to an Ebola infected person who has symptoms means any expelling of saliva in small droplets when talking or sneezing or coughing for any reason - which humans do all the time - means that micro droplets are expelled for several feet on to a person's skin and or clothing. Or onto to an object - such as a seat arm rest which one may share in a train, bus or plane... This is not to mention - the use of public restroom where an infection Ebola person just vomited or had diarrhea - even if cleaned up partially or in whole - infectious bodily fluid particles are everywhere - on the commode - on the sink edge, on the faucet handles, etc. One does not have to share a household with an Ebola infected person to catch it from them ... So keep on day dreaming that the Ebola virus cannot be transferred casually. What I just described - adjusted for African village life accounts for a significant portion of the passing on of the Ebola Virus...

I don't know about you but I don't cough or sneeze on a regular basis without a cold or flu (i.e. I could go the complete length of the ebola infection without having a sneeze or cough since it was not a symptom -- and you would not be wandering around free after the first few days of infectiousness). If it were something like a cold or flu virus it would have been a global pandemic months ago..... which is the reason why the selection of which flus to include in the annual vaccine is a guessing game because the nature of the coughing and sneezing related to flus means it spreads too quickly to plan ahead. Once ebola has hit a town, behaviour in most western cities would change dramatically - people would avoid cleaning potential hazards, avoid people that looked "under the weather". Take SARS (much more virulent than ebola and still much less virulent than the flu) which is a much more dangerous virus pandemic wise. It might be a less deadly virus (up to 20% fatality would not be abnormal - but lower than ebola) -- it is far more virulent and could have easily have been a failure in containment (it was with a generation or two of contacts of being completely out of control). I worked in a large office building in Toronto during that time, participated in segregating teams off-site etc. One of my co-workers was on vacation, and some smart-ass put up some pylons a police tape around one cubicle and made a handmade sign making reference to SARS. The cleaning staff came in and saw the sign and the next thing that happened was the cleaning staff etc. refused to clean THE ENTIRE BUILDING (we were on one floor out of 50+ floors). The president of our company was contacted by Brookfield and they demanded to know why they were not notified of it.... of course it was all a joke - but this type of avoidance would be the norm. The fact that in the worst possible places and situations for virus control it ONLY has between a 1.5 to 2.0 "reproduction number" (below 1 and it burns out quickly) is a really good sign. The virus has mutated several times so far, so there is no guarantee that the situation will remain stable, but right now it would likely burn itself out quickly when proper protocols are in place.

Edited October 11, 2014 by bkkcanuck8

[JDGRUEN]

Hmmmm? Seems Officials in Canada and Officials in Sierra Leone has a quite serious attitude about the devastation and further threat that Ebola is in West Africa... basically overwhelmed in Sierra Leone... Nothing that could ever threaten developed countries - no potential for that ... oh well just turn the page - go back and read about AiDS...

Canada advises citizens to leave Ebola-hit countries


Officials Admit a ‘Defeat’ by Ebola in Sierra Leone


http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/766871-us-ebola-patient-thomas-duncan-dies-in-hospital/page-5#entry8517389

Edited October 11, 2014 by JDGRUEN

[bkkcanuck8]

Hmmmm? Seems Officials in Canada and Officials in Sierra Leone has a quite serious attitude about the devastation and further threat that Ebola is in West Africa... basically overwhelmed in Sierra Leone... Nothing that could ever threaten developed countries - no potential for that ... oh well just turn the page - go back and read about AiDS...

Canada advises citizens to leave Ebola-hit countries

Officials Admit a ‘Defeat’ by Ebola in Sierra Leone

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/766871-us-ebola-patient-thomas-duncan-dies-in-hospital/page-5#entry8517389

Not a surprise since many did not believe in the ebola virus, attacked medical treatment centres, stole all sorts of fabric type materials such as beds and sheets, freed the patients from the doctors which they thought were ghouls fabricating the whole thing to steal organs etc. Destroyed the quarantine/treatment centres. When superstition overwhelms reason like this, it is near impossible to control.

Viruses like Aids sit hidden for years and years - which allows for much more difficult to trace infections before the virus ever comes to the attention of any medical professional. Based on the fact that they think the virus originated almost a century ago and yet was only "discovered" in the 70s or 80s..... it makes it more difficult. Deadly viruses with much faster incubation periods are easier to do contact tracing on.

Edited October 11, 2014 by bkkcanuck8

[MJP]

Hmmmm? Seems Officials in Canada and Officials in Sierra Leone has a quite serious attitude about the devastation and further threat that Ebola is in West Africa... basically overwhelmed in Sierra Leone... Nothing that could ever threaten developed countries - no potential for that ... oh well just turn the page - go back and read about AiDS...

Canada advises citizens to leave Ebola-hit countries

Officials Admit a ‘Defeat’ by Ebola in Sierra Leone

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/766871-us-ebola-patient-thomas-duncan-dies-in-hospital/page-5#entry8517389

You can't catch HIV/AIDS from a toilet seat. This is why I think Ebola is potentially much more devastating than HIV/AIDS. If the rate of infection is doubling every two to three weeks the destabilising effects are absolute with such a high mortality.

I also think you are right about localised (to the patient) aerosol transmission. Even without a cold we exhale moisture droplets.

[bkkcanuck8]

Hmmmm? Seems Officials in Canada and Officials in Sierra Leone has a quite serious attitude about the devastation and further threat that Ebola is in West Africa... basically overwhelmed in Sierra Leone... Nothing that could ever threaten developed countries - no potential for that ... oh well just turn the page - go back and read about AiDS...

Canada advises citizens to leave Ebola-hit countries

Officials Admit a ‘Defeat’ by Ebola in Sierra Leone

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/766871-us-ebola-patient-thomas-duncan-dies-in-hospital/page-5#entry8517389

You can't catch HIV/AIDS from a toilet seat. This is why I think Ebola is potentially much more devastating than HIV/AIDS. If the rate of infection is doubling every two to three weeks the destabilising effects are absolute with such a high mortality.

I also think you are right about localised (to the patient) aerosol transmission. Even without a cold we exhale moisture droplets.

If it were as bad as you are indicating and the speed at which the symptoms occur - you would have seen many more cases from the person in Dallas than have developed (at most one - family member). He flew over in an enclosed airplane (if it were like a cold - 10s people would have come out infected). The person was infected because he carried a sick / bleeding person to the treatment centre. He then was at the hospital probably coming in contact with many people there (with 103 temp), sent home, then came back 2 days later..... basically as badly handled as it can be in the west.... and still no outbreak of any size.

How many toilet seats do you think that person sat on?

Edited October 11, 2014 by bkkcanuck8

[bkkcanuck8]

@JDGRUEN - If really do believe ebola is that bad you should start short selling real estate funds that would be hit by a massive shrinkage of demand

[MJP]

Hmmmm? Seems Officials in Canada and Officials in Sierra Leone has a quite serious attitude about the devastation and further threat that Ebola is in West Africa... basically overwhelmed in Sierra Leone... Nothing that could ever threaten developed countries - no potential for that ... oh well just turn the page - go back and read about AiDS...

Canada advises citizens to leave Ebola-hit countries

Officials Admit a ‘Defeat’ by Ebola in Sierra Leone

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/766871-us-ebola-patient-thomas-duncan-dies-in-hospital/page-5#entry8517389

You can't catch HIV/AIDS from a toilet seat. This is why I think Ebola is potentially much more devastating than HIV/AIDS. If the rate of infection is doubling every two to three weeks the destabilising effects are absolute with such a high mortality.

I also think you are right about localised (to the patient) aerosol transmission. Even without a cold we exhale moisture droplets.

If it were as bad as you are indicating and the speed at which the symptoms occur - you would have seen many more cases from the person in Dallas than have developed (at most one - family member). He flew over in an enclosed airplane (if it were like a cold - 10s people would have come out infected). The person was infected because he carried a sick / bleeding person to the treatment centre. He then was at the hospital probably coming in contact with many people there (with 103 temp), sent home, then came back 2 days later..... basically as badly handled as it can be in the west.... and still no outbreak of any size.

How many toilet seats do you think that person sat on?

Oh it was chaos. No I think this has the potential to do a lot more damage in a short timespan than HIV/AIDS, not least serious economic destabilising effects. They're not really comparable diseases in any case. Acute versus chronic. Different exposure routes and transmission. Vastly different growth kinetics.

[bkkcanuck8]

Well it would be a once in a lifetime investment opportunity....

[MJP]

Well it would be a once in a lifetime investment opportunity....

If you think in such terms, perhaps, I've never thought about it.