Thai economy: Pridiyathorn predicts at least 4 percent growth in 2015

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ECONOMIC
Pridiyathorn predicts at least 4% growth in 2015
Petchanet Pratruangkrai
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula believes the economy will grow at least 4 per cent next year, following the government's investment plans to stimulate growth.

A Thai Chamber of Commerce survey showed that businessmen in every region have a positive outlook for next year, as they expect higher government spending, recovery in tourism and strong cross-border trade growth under the Asean seamless market.

However, the worrying factors are volatile global economic growth, low crop prices, high debt liabilities, and higher cost of living and production.

During the closing ceremony of the 32nd annual meeting of the chamber in Chiang Rai yesterday, Pridiyathorn said the Thai economy should show clear recovery signs from January following the launch of many government projects and injection of money under its investment plans.

Also, the government is amending hundreds of laws and regulations to facilitate Thai enterprises to do business easily under regional integration. The government should also complete paying Bt40 billion to farmers early next year.

According to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce's estimates, the economy next year could grow in the range of 3-5 per cent, compared to the average Asean growth forecast of 5.4 per cent and global growth of 4 per cent.

Saowanee Thairungroj, president of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said businessmen expect the economy next year to grow stronger. This prediction is based on exports growing by 4.1 per cent, imports by 5.3 per cent, with average global oil price at US$103-$108 per barrel.

The non-agricultural sector is expected to grow 4.2 per cent, and the agricultural sector will expand 1.6 per cent. The tourism sector will grow 8.6 per cent in terms of number of tourists to 26.6 million, and incomes in the tourism sector will increase 4.3 per cent to Bt1.21 trillion.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are expected to grow on average by 4 per cent, while large-scale enterprises will grow 6.2 per cent next year. The investment sector will be up 6.9 per cent in 2015.

Thanavath Phonvichai, director at the university's Economic and Business Forecasting Centre, said the economy this year is expected to grow only 0.8 per cent due to the slow budget disbursement.

However, next year brings higher expectations and better growth, as many of the government's spending projects will kick off.

Based on the UTCC's survey of 700 chamber members, business people foresee the Thai economy starting to expand in the first and second quarter of next year.

Somkiat Anuras, vice chairman of the chamber, said the eastern region is expected to grow the strongest compared to other regions, due to more investment from the government and approval of many investment projects.

To drive economic growth in each region, chamber members have called for the government to drive up the price of farm crops, promote cross-border trade and SMEs.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Pridiyathorn-predicts-at-least-4-growth-in-2015-30248396.html


-- The Nation 2014-11-24

[shirtless]

We all like a good laugh , why not say 10 percent.

[tullynagardy]

Living in dreamland! The likelihood of recession is much greater as this coup unravels throughout the year. Have a look at the way GDP growth has gone from under the (big bad) PTP government through to now.

[noitom]

Thailand appears to be headed toward a double dip and this guy is pontificating about a big jump up. Predicated on what data and activity?

[konying]

Told you so.

Last week thailand was doomed, this week thailand will be at the top

[NongKhaiKid]

Thailand appears to be headed toward a double dip and this guy is pontificating about a big jump up. Predicated on what data and activity?

The need to be seen subscribing to the general's view that all is happy , well and just getting better ?

[BSJ]

"Pridiyathorn predicts at least 4% growth in 2015" shouldn't there be a minus in front of the 4?

[terryp]

so next year thailand is going to outperform china...this place is run by idiots;i am not seeing ANY changes in ANYTHING here only more

stupid statements by the day from people who would not even get a job outside this dumb place

[worgeordie]

The only thing thats going to increase next year is Inflation !

regards Worgeordie

[Tatsujin]

As it seems that they are all still making things up and pulling numbers out of their ass, I've consulted my local source of reliable information and predictions (my psychic pet dog) and by the tilt of his head and the blank stare when I mentioned GDP I can confirm without a shadow of doubt that Thailand will actually be in recession in 2015.

Oh, and the next winning lottery ticket will have at least one number in it, most likely one of the numbers from 0 to 9, but my psychic dog was unable to confirm the specific numbers unfortunately.

[chainarong]

The crystal ball syndrome, Thailand seems to be having an brown nose revival to encompass their mates-man-ship within the Junta.

[Tatsujin]

so next year thailand is going to outperform china...this place is run by idiots;i am not seeing ANY changes in ANYTHING here only more

stupid statements by the day from people who would not even get a job outside this dumb place

Yeah, it's a good thing that cronyism doesn't look like it's gonna disappear anytime soon, heaven forbid that people were actually put in positions based on their performance.

[soalbundy]

Thailand appears to be headed toward a double dip and this guy is pontificating about a big jump up. Predicated on what data and activity?

Asia News and Forex forecasts agree with him, also forecast is a big Euro depreciation unfortunately so a double wammy for those of us using the Euro, 2015 will be a tough year

[recycled]

Pick a number, any number, everybody wins a prize.

[h90]

I can't see any difference between the Abhisit, Yingluck and Prayut government.

4% would be possible with good politics.....but that won't happen.

[Ulic]

Seems like all the Thai governments pick any number that suits them and they go from there. Adjust as they see fit.

Mind you not that much different from the west where politicians hire economists to make the forecast.

[mike324]

Actually Credit Suisse also predicts a 3-4% growth, the only reason for no growth is due to politics scaring away tourists and investments, with all the protesting out of the way, Thailand is returning to normal hence the increase. It sound believable.

[Dogmatix]

Has Pridyathorn provided more details of the assumptions behind his prediction?

[Anthony5]

Pridiyathorn predicts at least 4% growth in 2015


However, the worrying factors are volatile global economic growth, low crop prices, high debt liabilities, and higher cost of living and production.

In other words, the weatherman predicted, next year we will have sun all year, however it may rain most of the time.

[rickirs]

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I can't see any difference between the Abhisit, Yingluck and Prayut government.

4% would be possible with good politics.....but that won't happen.

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It seems that Yingluck's Government before it was dissolved in September 2013 had a fair amount of GDP growth. ;b++){var>

[RustBucket]

I think they are facing a recession.

There is a big difference between reality and what the Junta are allowing to be released.

There is a severe drought bearing down on Thailand at the moment, that will have an impact and then we have ASEAN AEC coming onto effect and Thailand is not going to do well there.

Then we should safely be into a global economic recession when the USD collapses.

[rickirs]

"At least 4 percent [for 2015]?" There might be some disagreement with that happening.

2014-11-20 Kosit Panpiemras, Bangkok Bank executive chairman: "Thailand's Board of Investment (BoI) admits that foreign investment is declining, and a top banker warns that the government's economic stimulus policies will fail if its populist policies cause a rise in household debt.....Thailand's economic growth rate is predicted at 3-4 per cent next year due to its low base this year, he [Kosit] said, noting that previous populist policies and household debt continue to heavily affect the Thai economy and prevent its growth from reflecting the real potential of the country."

With foreign exports down, the economic driver for Thailand's GDP growth in 2015 will be government economic stimulus spending:

2014-11-21 FPO Deputy Director-General Ekniti Nitithanprapas: "What he thinks is driving the economy is government spending. He said that only 89 per cent of the 2014 budget had been disbursed due to past political problems......The disbursement of the remaining budget in the present fiscal year and the spending of state enterprises would create considerable economic activity, Mr Ekniti said.”

BUT

2014-11-20 Somkid Jatusripitak, an adviser to the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO):

“GDP growth should be based on its capability to develop products in terms of innovation and strength, which could help the country compete with others. A capital injection could only boost the economy temporarily…..Stimuli attempted over the past 10 years were not worthwhile, he claimed, as high borrowings followed. If stimulus is necessary, it should coincide with long-term solutions for a proper growth rate.”

So what economic strategy is correct? While I believe Smokid is correct academically that Thailand’s economic recovery will be long-term (ie., 3-5 more years), but that approach does not reinforce political tolerance for continuation of the Junta-led government and its reforms.

[Old Man River]

Thailand appears to be headed toward a double dip and this guy is pontificating about a big jump up. Predicated on what data and activity?

Predicated on the government's infrastructural spending which is widely known.

Look at the areas they are predicting growth in and factor in the government spending and it all fits.

The real question is what then?

[Fred Flinstone]

Living in dreamland! The likelihood of recession is much greater as this coup unravels throughout the year. Have a look at the way GDP growth has gone from under the (big bad) PTP government through to now.

This is the reality - and its always good to know the facts and truth

[Time Traveller]

I'd like to say just ignore this clown, but he is the same guy that introduced the distastrous capital controls during the last coup in Thailand.

for those who can't remember 2006. it caused a 16% crash in the Stock market in one day. Then the punk had the audacity to state "This was not a mistake".

Edited November 24, 2014 by Time Traveller

[Echo Tango]

China is barely holding on to 7% growth and the Yen is being depreciated daily (Thailand will have to devalue to stay competitive). Throw in low tourism and low commodity prices, and there's no way they're going to make it to 4% IMO.