Patong is dead.

[LivinginKata]

1 hour ago, NamKangMan said:

<snip>

I would suggest that the majority of us were once a tourist here, and probably returned here several times, before living here long term.

 

 

 I flew into Phuket 20+ years ago on a whim. I was travelling back from a long 4 month offshore contract. Change flight in Singapore with ticket for London. Thought I might have a couple days R&R in Bali that have visited about 3 times before plus I spoke a bit of the local lingo from a year working in Indonesia. But at Singapore there was a flight leaving in 30 minutes for Phuket so I hopped on board.  I liked it so much that I stayed on for 6 days (had another job in the US),  bought a 30 year lease on a house (which I sold at profit 3 years later), met my now wife (the main reason for staying here), flew  direct to Hawaii and not pass through London, flew back after my 3 week US  job. Been here ever since. Not sure I consider myself a previous tourist ?

 

But that was 20+ years ago ... today would be a very different picture for the average visitor.

 

 

[Bulldozer Dawn]

Spoke to a young Thai lad that I know today.  His mum married a Swedish guy so he grew up in Sweden but has a Thai passport here as well.  He works here during the high season and then goes back to work in Sweden.  He runs a minivan down to Phuket airport.  He told me today that parts of the new airport structures are already collapsing due to skimming of funds and substandard concrete being used during construction.  Any one else heard about this.

 

And, although I pride myself on never agreeing with anything that Old Croc says, yes...the Russians are back around here too...

[xylophone]

Quote’ “He told me today that parts of the new airport structures are already collapsing due to skimming of funds and substandard concrete being used during construction.  Anyone else heard about this”.

 

Will be interesting to hear if anyone else has any news of this, although it wouldn’t surprise me judging by what’s been going on here in Patong for years.

 

Related to that and on a positive note, the new drains installed in Soi Banzaan seem to work well and in the recent downpours there was not a hint of flooding in that road, that for the first time in my living memory here. However, and there is always an “however” here, the junction of those drains at the bottom where they join the edge of the new middle road is still proving a problem.

 

You see that drain and its junction have been laid and re-laid and dug up and reworked on so many occasions that I’ve lost count and I thought that with the laying of the new drains, that the problem might have been solved, BUT the putrid stench which has always been the hallmark of that junction is still evident, very evident in fact and no matter what they do or try to do, something is drastically wrong there – – it shouldn’t stink of sewerage and especially after so many tries at getting it right!

 

“………..the Russians are back around here too”.

 

Yes, I have noticed a great deal more Russians around, and especially those with younger families and I had to chuckle yesterday when a long time Thai taxi driver friend (yes actually a nice guy) complained that he didn’t like the Russians because, “they never smiled and they were always angry”. Not to mention the fact that they are also cheap and two days ago I heard a couple of them trying to “negotiate” the price of a foot massage down from 300 baht to 200 baht for an hour, and the Russians trying to beat down the price of some food on a roadside cart is just beyond belief.

 

What with those and the cheap Chinese around the place, he was lamenting the fact that business was terrible.

 

As I've said on a few occasions before, despite the downturn and places going bust, there always seems to be someone waiting in the wings to buy something or open something new and the newly installed, “Patty Moos authentic fast food” which seems to specialise in burgers, located at the rear of Jungceylon near the new middle road, seems to be emulating the business it replaced, “Fries and Sausages” in as much as it is doing next to no business!

 

Perhaps there will actually be a buyer for the “Amigo Bar and restaurant” which has a large “for sale” sign on it, as there seems to be a few people out there with a penchant for buying up businesses which don’t do any business, and opening them again to find out the sad fact of life that………….it doesn’t do any business!

 

Just a matter of metres away, the recently opened “Yayoi” Japanese restaurant appears to be doing well, whereas the newly opened next door neighbour, “Kin” is often bereft of customers apart from one or two solitary souls.

 

According to my many sources around the place, the last couple of weeks have been a lot better, although that is now falling off quite markedly.

[LivinginKata]

Maybe Amigo will be a viable business if the huge condo project ever open ...

Edited January 12, 2017 by LivinginKata

[Bulldozer Dawn]

Just now, LivinginKata said:

Maybe Amigo will be a viable business if the huge condo project ever open ...

 

Depends how you define a business.  The proper definition is something that you can put a manager in to create a passive income for you as the owner.  Otherwise it is not a business, it is just creating yourself a job.  So by the above definition, Amigo will never become a viable business.  At best the new own will create himself a job.  At worst he will blow his key money like so many other before him.

[prophet01]

5 hours ago, Bulldozer Dawn said:

 

Depends how you define a business.  The proper definition is something that you can put a manager in to create a passive income for you as the owner.  Otherwise it is not a business, it is just creating yourself a job.  So by the above definition, Amigo will never become a viable business.  At best the new own will create himself a job.  At worst he will blow his key money like so many other before him.

 

"Depends how you define a business. The proper definition is something that you can put a manager in to create a passive income for you as the owner"

 

Apologies for going slightly off topic but from where on earth did you find that bizarre definition of "a business"?

 

A business is any entity established with the intention to provide goods or services in expectation of receiving remuneration by way of reciprocal receipt of goods, services or, as is normally the case, money. How that entity is organised/managed has absolutely no relevance to its identity as being "a business".

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 12, 2017 by prophet01

[DrDave]

I agree with Xylophone and others - there's been a significant increase in Russian tourists in Patong. I'm not sure why, as the ruble which has recovered somewhat over the past few months, is nowhere near the pre-2015 value.

 

From what I see (at the beaches, shopping centers and walking around town), it almost appears that Russians and/or eastern Europeans have overtaken the Chinese as being in the majority, followed by north Africans and other "hiphopslims" as described by BD. This may be an anomaly due to peak season, and we may see a redistribution of the demographics as we head back into regular high and low seasons. One thing is for sure, the traffic in Patong at certain times is becoming almost unbearable. Apart from early morning, it can take up to 30 minutes to travel the length of Sai Kor road.

 

As far as Patong being dead, we've noticed a big increase in restaurant patronage the past few weeks. A couple of nights ago, the larger restaurants in Soi Patong Tower were completely full, both indoors and outdoors with additional tables setup to handle the crowd. Never seen that before. We had an hour to kill while waiting for our foot massage guy to free up, so we took a stroll down Bangla at around 8:30. It was fairly dead at that time, even though NY Live, Monsoon and Tao all had bands playing. Each of those venues had only a handful of customers, and nearly all the small bars fronting Bangla were completely devoid of customers. The one exception was the temporary-looking bar that's been setup in the old Soi Crocodile location. They had a live Filipino band playing (although definitely B-grade) and they were packed. The combination of a large open-air space, a live band, and 49 baht Chang beer seemed to draw the crowd.

 

Looking to the future of Patong, if my understanding that most of the land is owned/controlled by a small number of families is correct, then I don't see Patong being left to die. These people are not going to let their assets lie dormant due to business failures and the subsequent lack of rental income. Construction and demolition costs are very low relative to the value of the land any structures occupy. My guess is that once their revenue declines to an unacceptable level, these families will drive a "Patong 2.0" initiative, in which we'll see a re-development of much of Patong. Re-development in the sense that there will always be a beach and some sort of nightlife, but most likely some other major attraction, such as casinos, that would be a universal draw for visitors from nearby countries as well as the West.  

 

 

[SooKee]

Thing is, it's not their 'yearning for earning' that's the problem IMHO, more the lack of initiative.  Almost everything in Patong is 'copy / paste' style.  Nothing, and I mean NOTHING different, and in Patong, outside of restaurants nothing of any class.

 

I'm guessing at the bar above, the 49 baht beer was a big draw.  Patong sure does seem to have gone cheap in recent years.  Case of having to I guess, adapting to a clientele that no longer has (in the case of the 'bogan style' yobbo farang tourists, the Magaluf 18-30 crowd of 30 years ago, where getting pi55ed and causing trouble is an objective rather than an occasional side-effect) or is not willing to spend the money there.  Not surprising the way it's gone really.  Can't see it changing any time soon, except maybe for the worse.

Edited January 13, 2017 by SooKee

[KarenBravo]

Restaurants are doing well because Russians and East Europeans usually dine out, but, drink at home/hotel with friends.

Vodka is so cheap in their home countries that to them, the prices at the bars are extortionate.

[DrDave]

10 minutes ago, SooKee said:

Thing is, it's not their 'yearning for earning' that's the problem IMHO, more the lack of initiative.  

<snip>  

Can't see it changing any time soon, except maybe for the worse.

I think we won't see any initiative on the part of the land owners until they feel it's absolutely necessary. As long as there are people willing to take over leases of failed businesses, the land owners probably feel that they don't need to do anything. The problem is that more and more failed businesses are being shuttered without someone taking over the lease. As this situation increases, the land owners are going to be hit financially. At that point, I think we'll see some real initiative to something. We're not there yet, and I agree that it'll get worse before it gets better.

[KarenBravo]

Shuttered shops. Anyone noticed the increasing amount of shuttered shops in the heart of Phuket Town?

I think this gives a truer overall picture of the state of the Phuket economy.

[xylophone]

55 minutes ago, DrDave said:

I think we won't see any initiative on the part of the land owners until they feel it's absolutely necessary. As long as there are people willing to take over leases of failed businesses, the land owners probably feel that they don't need to do anything. The problem is that more and more failed businesses are being shuttered without someone taking over the lease. As this situation increases, the land owners are going to be hit financially. At that point, I think we'll see some real initiative to something. We're not there yet, and I agree that it'll get worse before it gets better.

 

Could well be the case DrDave.........Soi Crocodile closure meant more than 30? closed bars; Soi Easy less but even now inside the "new place" only a few are occupied; some empty  bars in Soi Freedom; no customers in the newly opened bars in what was Soi Gonzo (behind the Aussie Bar) and a few probably close to failing in Soi Sea Dragon.

 

So the writing is on the wall, but how big do the words have to get before someone sees them?

Edited January 13, 2017 by xylophone
speller

[KarenBravo]

The longer bars stay empty, the higher the price to make up for lost income. Thai Economics 101.

[DrDave]

23 minutes ago, xylophone said:

 

Could well be the case DrDave.........Soi Crocodile closure meant more than 30? closed bars; Soi Easy less but even now inside the "new place" only a few are occupied; some empty  bars in Soi Freedom; no customers in the newly opened bars in what was Soi Gonzo (behind the Aussie Bar) and a few probably close to failing in Soi Sea Dragon.

 

So the writing is on the wall, but how big do the words have to get before someone sees them?

One thing that may be delaying any action is that I think there's an insulating layer between the tenants and the land owners. These would be individuals or companies that hold "master leases", and then sub-let the individual bars. Those holding the master leases would suffer the losses from bars that have closed or are delinquent in their lease payments. At some point, the master leaseholders can't absorb any more losses, and begin to default on their payments to the land owners. And that's the point at which we'll begin to see some real change. It may take a while for the losses to migrate up to the land owners.

 

I'm not 100% sure that this is the situation, but I believe some of the side sois are (or were) sub-let under master leases.

[SooKee]

I see in the latest initiative to drive tourists away there is going to be a clamp down on the sand beds that some are trying to provide to make the stay on the beach a bit less of an endurance test. Where the sand is piled up to make a bit of a pillow. Unfreaking believable!!

TAT seems to be doing its best to get tourists to come while the authorities seem to be doing their damnedest to drive them away. Maybe they want pristine clear beaches uncluttered with bodies. Doing well. I'm sure they'll soon have it. If I was gonna spend any money at all on a beach holiday it sure as 5hit wouldn't be in Phuket!!!!


Sent using Tapatalk

[sanemax]

2 minutes ago, SooKee said:

I see in the latest initiative to drive tourists away there is going to be a clamp down on the sand beds that some are trying to provide to make the stay on the beach a bit less of an endurance test. Where the sand is piled up to make a bit of a pillow. In freaking believable!!!


Sent using Tapatalk

 

   And if you fall asleep on those sand beds, you will probably have to tell immigration and fill out a TM 30 form as well :)

[schlog]

The only innovations Patong had in the last 10 years are Kebab samlors and latex shops.

So i would not expect to much new highlights exept the big guys in BKK play the Casino card.

But for this imho we need more downturn for some more years before we will see this.

Buying times in Patong will come again when cannons firing.

[NamKangMan]

On 09/01/2017 at 6:58 PM, LivinginKata said:

 

 I flew into Phuket 20+ years ago on a whim. I was travelling back from a long 4 month offshore contract. Change flight in Singapore with ticket for London. Thought I might have a couple days R&R in Bali that have visited about 3 times before plus I spoke a bit of the local lingo from a year working in Indonesia. But at Singapore there was a flight leaving in 30 minutes for Phuket so I hopped on board.  I liked it so much that I stayed on for 6 days (had another job in the US),  bought a 30 year lease on a house (which I sold at profit 3 years later), met my now wife (the main reason for staying here), flew  direct to Hawaii and not pass through London, flew back after my 3 week US  job. Been here ever since. Not sure I consider myself a previous tourist ?

 

But that was 20+ years ago ... today would be a very different picture for the average visitor.

 

 

 

 

Sounds like you had contracted a very severe case of Thai Fever, LIK.   :)

 

I would say you were a tourist for your first 6 days here, and probably for a little while when you came back.

 

Buying a house here doesn't make you an instant expat.

[NamKangMan]

7 hours ago, DrDave said:

I agree with Xylophone and others - there's been a significant increase in Russian tourists in Patong. I'm not sure why, as the ruble which has recovered somewhat over the past few months, is nowhere near the pre-2015 value.

 

From what I see (at the beaches, shopping centers and walking around town), it almost appears that Russians and/or eastern Europeans have overtaken the Chinese as being in the majority, followed by north Africans and other "hiphopslims" as described by BD. This may be an anomaly due to peak season, and we may see a redistribution of the demographics as we head back into regular high and low seasons. One thing is for sure, the traffic in Patong at certain times is becoming almost unbearable. Apart from early morning, it can take up to 30 minutes to travel the length of Sai Kor road.

 

As far as Patong being dead, we've noticed a big increase in restaurant patronage the past few weeks. A couple of nights ago, the larger restaurants in Soi Patong Tower were completely full, both indoors and outdoors with additional tables setup to handle the crowd. Never seen that before. We had an hour to kill while waiting for our foot massage guy to free up, so we took a stroll down Bangla at around 8:30. It was fairly dead at that time, even though NY Live, Monsoon and Tao all had bands playing. Each of those venues had only a handful of customers, and nearly all the small bars fronting Bangla were completely devoid of customers. The one exception was the temporary-looking bar that's been setup in the old Soi Crocodile location. They had a live Filipino band playing (although definitely B-grade) and they were packed. The combination of a large open-air space, a live band, and 49 baht Chang beer seemed to draw the crowd.

 

Looking to the future of Patong, if my understanding that most of the land is owned/controlled by a small number of families is correct, then I don't see Patong being left to die. These people are not going to let their assets lie dormant due to business failures and the subsequent lack of rental income. Construction and demolition costs are very low relative to the value of the land any structures occupy. My guess is that once their revenue declines to an unacceptable level, these families will drive a "Patong 2.0" initiative, in which we'll see a re-development of much of Patong. Re-development in the sense that there will always be a beach and some sort of nightlife, but most likely some other major attraction, such as casinos, that would be a universal draw for visitors from nearby countries as well as the West.  

 

 

 

 

"these families will drive a "Patong 2.0" initiative, in which we'll see a re-development of much of Patong." - possible, but you can have nice new shinny buildings / businesses everywhere, with great meals, activities, music, and entertainment inside, however, if they are still surrounded by poor infrastructure, uncompetitive pricing - possibly still due to high rents, poor ocean water quality, and a lack of proper public transport, just to name a few, then who is going to come to Phuket and check out "Patong 2.0 and who will come back to Phuket to check out Patong 2.0????" 

 

I visa run via Pattaya, mainly to catch up with ex-Phuket friends there.  They, and some tourists I meet there, would rather be living and holidaying on Phuket, but they have told me they no longer live here, or holiday here, because of the very reasons I have given above, plus some others. 

 

So, in its current form, and I suggest it's along the whole coast, not just Patong, not only is Patong struggling to attract western tourists, and lure repeat western tourists back here, it's now also struggling to attract and keep expats. 

 

It's going to take more than creating a "Patong 2.0" to have a sustainable tourist industry here.  

 

[NamKangMan]

4 hours ago, KarenBravo said:

Shuttered shops. Anyone noticed the increasing amount of shuttered shops in the heart of Phuket Town?

I think this gives a truer overall picture of the state of the Phuket economy.

 

"I think this gives a truer overall picture of the state of the Phuket economy." - as stated previously, we are heading towards "The Phuket Financial Crisis." 

[DrDave]

6 minutes ago, NamKangMan said:

 

 

"these families will drive a "Patong 2.0" initiative, in which we'll see a re-development of much of Patong." - possible, but you can have nice new shinny buildings / businesses everywhere, with great meals, activities, music, and entertainment inside, however, if they are still surrounded by poor infrastructure, uncompetitive pricing - possibly still due to high rents, poor ocean water quality, and a lack of proper public transport, just to name a few, then who is going to come to Phuket and check out "Patong 2.0 and who will come back to Phuket to check out Patong 2.0????" 

 

I visa run via Pattaya, mainly to catch up with ex-Phuket friends there.  They, and some tourists I meet there, would rather be living and holidaying on Phuket, but they have told me they no longer live here, or holiday here, because of the very reasons I have given above, plus some others. 

 

So, in its current form, and I suggest it's along the whole coast, not just Patong, not only is Patong struggling to attract western tourists, and lure repeat western tourists back here, it's now also struggling to attract and keep expats. 

 

It's going to take more than creating a "Patong 2.0" to have a sustainable tourist industry here.  

 

I was thinking a little broader, in the sense that a Patong 2.0 re-development would include infrastructure upgrades (water, sewer, transportation, etc). Don't underestimate the power of the "influential" families in pushing to get things done in the event that their empires are threatened.

[NamKangMan]

4 hours ago, xylophone said:

 

Could well be the case DrDave.........Soi Crocodile closure meant more than 30? closed bars; Soi Easy less but even now inside the "new place" only a few are occupied; some empty  bars in Soi Freedom; no customers in the newly opened bars in what was Soi Gonzo (behind the Aussie Bar) and a few probably close to failing in Soi Sea Dragon.

 

So the writing is on the wall, but how big do the words have to get before someone sees them?

 

 

Duplicate post removed. 

Edited January 13, 2017 by NamKangMan

[NamKangMan]

4 hours ago, xylophone said:

 

Could well be the case DrDave.........Soi Crocodile closure meant more than 30? closed bars; Soi Easy less but even now inside the "new place" only a few are occupied; some empty  bars in Soi Freedom; no customers in the newly opened bars in what was Soi Gonzo (behind the Aussie Bar) and a few probably close to failing in Soi Sea Dragon.

 

So the writing is on the wall, but how big do the words have to get before someone sees them?

 

 

"but how big do the words have to get before someone sees them?" - I think the western tourist market would increase here, more or less overnight, with the use of only two words, "baht bus."   

 

The lack of transport here has destroyed Phuket's tourism industry, and we are really starting to see it now.

[NamKangMan]

24 minutes ago, DrDave said:

I was thinking a little broader, in the sense that a Patong 2.0 re-development would include infrastructure upgrades (water, sewer, transportation, etc). Don't underestimate the power of the "influential" families in pushing to get things done in the event that their empires are threatened.

 

 

Ahhhh, it's been threatened for sometime now.  The downturn here wasn't due to a disaster, or similar.  It's happened due to policy, economics, politics, and corruption. 

 

Are you suggesting there will be a "private public" initiative to revitalize Phuket?  If so, the private sector may be willing to inject funds, because they are now losing big money, but the public sector couldn't care less. 

 

This is why Phuket is what it is now - undesirable.

[DrDave]

1 hour ago, NamKangMan said:

 

 

Ahhhh, it's been threatened for sometime now.  The downturn here wasn't due to a disaster, or similar.  It's happened due to policy, economics, politics, and corruption. 

 

Are you suggesting there will be a "private public" initiative to revitalize Phuket?  If so, the private sector may be willing to inject funds, because they are now losing big money, but the public sector couldn't care less. 

 

This is why Phuket is what it is now - undesirable.

We haven't reached the tipping point yet - but it's coming.

And yes, I think any re-development involving infrastructure will be driven (and possibly partially funded) by the private sector. The public sector in Patong specifically, and Phuket in general is of little consequence, even though there's a large number of jobs at stake. The simple fact remains that the majority of Thais living in Phuket have no voice in government, and cannot vote due to their inability to register in Phuket.

[NamKangMan]

27 minutes ago, DrDave said:

We haven't reached the tipping point yet - but it's coming.

And yes, I think any re-development involving infrastructure will be driven (and possibly partially funded) by the private sector. The public sector in Patong specifically, and Phuket in general is of little consequence, even though there's a large number of jobs at stake. The simple fact remains that the majority of Thais living in Phuket have no voice in government, and cannot vote due to their inability to register in Phuket.

 

 

That's going to be a hard sell in Bangkok, either now, under the Army control, or to any future Government.  We are talking about big amount of capital expenditure by Government to turn Phuket around, after years of neglect. 

 

As you said, "the majority of Thai's living in Phuket have no voice in Government" so why would Bangkok release billions of baht to upgrade Phuket's infrastructure?  It's not like they will lose many votes here if they didn't.  That's why Mr. T looked after Issan, for the cheap and easy votes. 

 

As for the private sector, how are they going to recoup their capital investment, if not for higher rents, which are passed on to the customers (tourists) which would then make Phuket even more uncompetitive than it already is in the South East Asia tourism market.   

 

Phuket is an economical "perfect storm."  This is why I predicted "The Phuket Financial Crisis."  Without positive change here, it's not a matter of if, just when. 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 13, 2017 by NamKangMan

[Bulldozer Dawn]

When America sails into war with China over the Spratleys or Taiwan, perhaps Bangla will have a renaisance with a fresh batch of U.S navy personel on R and R.  That is of course if the current gubberment does not align itself with the PRC Boyz and start rounding up farangs for detention.

[GiantFan]

Was at Wally Bar on Soi Freedom several nights ago.  Surprised that 2 bars near the front were closed with 4 sale signs.  This usually happens near the end of high season.

[csabo]

On 1/31/2015 at 8:12 PM, Felt 35 said:

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Do you go it alone or is it a group ride?

 

Why don't the cyclists start a new thread? It's beyond apology at this point.

[xylophone]

11 hours ago, GiantFan said:

Was at Wally Bar on Soi Freedom several nights ago.  Surprised that 2 bars near the front were closed with 4 sale signs.  This usually happens near the end of high season.

 

Not sure where you mean GF, but there are four bars near the stage which have been empty for a few months now.........a sign of the times as many have said here.