Prayut govt 'may stay on longer'

[Lite Beer]

Prayut govt 'may stay on longer'
PRAVIT ROJANAPHRUK
THE SUNDAY NATION

BANGKOK: -- Experts believe tenure could exceed people's expectations

PRIME MINISTER General Prayut Chan-o-cha's government may stay in power longer than most people expect, a leading scholar has predicted.

Chulalongkorn University political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak said: "This interim period could be longer - longer than most of us might think."

Thitinan was talking to a symposium at the German Embassy on Wednesday evening, when academics met to talk about the current political situation.

He added that there might be an unintended consequence as a result. While he did not specify what that might be, he said it was clear that the military was trying to turn back the clock on politics.

"In terms of its [the military] culture, it is retrograde. Their culture is essentially retro in time although on one hand they wish to have modernity in line with the 21st century," he said.

"The Army is not set up to rule in the globalised 21st century. I'm afraid that the interim [period of military governance] could be indefinite."

Thitinan said the majority of Thais were still supportive of the military and few protests had been observed, but he said it should be recognised that Thailand is owned by the people and not the few.

Thammasat University political scientist Prajak Kongkirati said Thai society had not yet managed |to debunk the myth of a military coup being a tool to end a political crisis.

Prajak said the reliance on military coups was dangerous for society in the long run as Thailand would become trapped in a cycle of coups.

"The current coup did not fulfil the aspiration of the People's Democratic Reform Committee but it fulfilled the aspiration of the military elites," he said.

The symposium was organised by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in honour of its outgoing resident director Marc Saxer, who warned that the political crisis was only the tip of an iceberg - an underlying transformation crisis facing society.

Although there was a semblance of calm and stability after the coup last year, the reality was different, Saxer argued.

"A coup d'etat is a quick fix that closes the system in order to gain short-term stability. It seems as if everything returned to stability," said Saxer. "We're in a vertigo of change but a new order has not yet emerged."

He said economically Thailand faced a middle-income trap while politically, MPs and Parliament must be made accountable and Parliament's decisions must be inclusive.

Thai society, he said, needed a new social contract that included horizontal decision-making processes.

He acknowledged, however, it would take a while before the |transformation crisis was transcended.

Many Thais, he said, still adhered to a Buddhist cosmology based on a belief in good people.

The conservative middle class eventually turned to the military when that was combined with the fact that the majority of voters were rural poor and deemed to have been manipulated by populist policies under Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Prayut-govt-may-stay-on-longer-30253103.html

-- The Nation 2015-02-01

[Chang_paarp]

PRIME MINISTER General Prayut Chan-o-cha's government may stay in power longer than most people expect, a leading scholar has predicted.

This comes as a surprise to no one.

[WhamBam]

It seems to me that the 'quick fix' of a Coup is not heading where it is supposed to be heading.

We have heard a lot about what the Junta will do, yet we seem to see little evidence of it in reality. Yes, there is some tinkering here and there, but nothing really substantial and they have had time to make some substantial changes.

Thieves, muggers, murderers still get away with light sentences or fines.

Scammers are still getting away with making a lot of money from tourists and others.

There are protests from the farmers, though much of this seems to be kept quiet.

Much of the RTP still seems to do very little for the people whom they are supposed to serve and to protect. It seems there is still so little honesty within the RTP too.

Yet they say they envisage the army to be in charge for much longer than to be expected. To do what exactly? More of nothing?

I had hoped the General and his cohorts would have really been seen to be making more substantial changes.

[Reigntax]

Just long enough to intergrate Thailand into the Eastern Asia Alliance of Communist Military Directorship countries.

Edited January 31, 2015 by Reigntax

[NCFC]

I think some people are going to be called in for attitude re-adjustment come Monday morning.

[NongKhaiKid]

PRIME MINISTER General Prayut Chan-o-cha's government may stay in power longer than most people expect, a leading scholar has predicted.

This comes as a surprise to no one.

Yes, and it's a bit too early in the morning to take this earth shattering suggestion on board.

Didn't see the chances of that ever happening !

[rasmus5150]

What was the alternative to the coup....... Civil War. Which scenario do you prefer?

[Reigntax]

What was the alternative to the coup....... Civil War. Which scenario do you prefer?

Well the military could have always assisted in restoring democracy under the previous Constitution. After all, they wrote it to solve the problems justifying the previous coup, and the previous.

Let's face the facts, there wont ever be civil war in Thailand because they can't even do that right. They will talk about it, huff and puff, chest beat and if it every looked like gaining momentum, they will run as fast as they can, just a few paces behind the military.

[Somtamnication]

I say 10 years. Anyone?

[mikemac]

Funny, but some of the posters who are all over this story like a cheap suit are well known for being Thai bashers and usually disregard anything a Thai comes out with, unless it suits their agenda.

This guy, Thitinan Pongsudhirak said: "This interim period could be longer - longer than most of us might think."................and you have picked it up and run with it, like a dog with a lamb chop.

[Thailand]

What was the alternative to the coup....... Civil War. Which scenario do you prefer?

A democratic election with the military helping to protect voters and venues a reasonable alternative perhaps?

[kriswillems]

My personal opinion:
The army is here to stay, that's clear. They didn't even manage to lift the martial law by now.
Most probably the army will at least stay until some indiscussable transition will happen, and probably many years after that.
The transition to democracy will cost lives.

Edited February 1, 2015 by kriswillems

[thesetat2013]

Funny, but some of the posters who are all over this story like a cheap suit are well known for being Thai bashers and usually disregard anything a Thai comes out with, unless it suits their agenda.

This guy, Thitinan Pongsudhirak said: "This interim period could be longer - longer than most of us might think."................and you have picked it up and run with it, like a dog with a lamb chop.

Yes and of course their are people like you who posted just to bash the foreigners.

The facts that the junta took control seemed justified. Also the changes needed are so inbred into society as a whole including the politicians and gov workers all the way to the little people will take a long time to change especially since enforcement must be done using corrupt people as well.

With any luck the junta can make significant changes to the laws and get rid of enough corruption that will get the ball rolling to a better Thailand.

But there is NO fast fix to the problems with corruption here. One can only hope that by next year enough has changed that the people and the junta are confident to begin trying to have elections again.

[aussieinthailand]

Funny, but some of the posters who are all over this story like a cheap suit are well known for being Thai bashers and usually disregard anything a Thai comes out with, unless it suits their agenda.

This guy, Thitinan Pongsudhirak said: "This interim period could be longer - longer than most of us might think."................and you have picked it up and run with it, like a dog with a lamb chop.

Well I'm not a Thai basher, and I don't have any agenda as there is no benefit to me who is in government, but I do have an opinion and voice them as many here do.

So do you think this political science academic is right or wrong or dose he have an agenda?

Do you think he will be "invited" to have a little talk with the powers that be for having dared to voice his opinion? and are these "attitude adjustments" all good in your home country?

[Thai at Heart]

Funny, but some of the posters who are all over this story like a cheap suit are well known for being Thai bashers and usually disregard anything a Thai comes out with, unless it suits their agenda.

This guy, Thitinan Pongsudhirak said: "This interim period could be longer - longer than most of us might think."................and you have picked it up and run with it, like a dog with a lamb chop.

Yes and of course their are people like you who posted just to bash the foreigners.

The facts that the junta took control seemed justified. Also the changes needed are so inbred into society as a whole including the politicians and gov workers all the way to the little people will take a long time to change especially since enforcement must be done using corrupt people as well.

With any luck the junta can make significant changes to the laws and get rid of enough corruption that will get the ball rolling to a better Thailand.

But there is NO fast fix to the problems with corruption here. One can only hope that by next year enough has changed that the people and the junta are confident to begin trying to have elections again.

If they wanted to solve things like corruption they would be writing laws alongside going to all this effort to prosecute previous supposed wrongdoing.

Alas it all seems a little heavy on the retribution and thin on change. Wouldn't want to close all those juicy loopholes would we now.

How is a man supposed to feed himself on a meagre military salary after all.

[chainarong]

You don't need to be Einstein to work out that the timeline for reforms and the constitution that P.M. Prayuth - O set out was far short of the mark and this has already been discussed , it depends whether the people understand that to get it right it would take up to 3 years, otherwise you end up with a hastily finished Constitution much like the Thaksin design 2004 , the ball is in Prayuth - O court., I personally would like to see the finished product once and for all done correct , however my modelling would be far different to the present administration's proposals.

[Sarathi]

Thailand - Hub of coups!

[Crossy]

OK Enough!

I've removed several posts with thinly disguised reference to the Monarchy, along with the replies to them.

If you spot anything that breaks the rules please use the "Report" button, do not reply to said poat, it makes it difficult to trace all references to it.

[mikemac]

Funny, but some of the posters who are all over this story like a cheap suit are well known for being Thai bashers and usually disregard anything a Thai comes out with, unless it suits their agenda.

This guy, Thitinan Pongsudhirak said: "This interim period could be longer - longer than most of us might think."................and you have picked it up and run with it, like a dog with a lamb chop.

Well I'm not a Thai basher, and I don't have any agenda as there is no benefit to me who is in government, but I do have an opinion and voice them as many here do.

So do you think this political science academic is right or wrong or dose he have an agenda?

Do you think he will be "invited" to have a little talk with the powers that be for having dared to voice his opinion? and are these "attitude adjustments" all good in your home country?

Well if you are not a Thai basher and don't have an anti-government agenda then my comment obviously had nothing to do with you. And I do respect your opinion, whether or not I agree with it.

I don't know much about this academic Thitinan Pongsudhirak, except he seems to have very good credentials, and I merely commented on the reaction his opinion received from "some" posters.

I wonder what the reaction had have been if he said he gave full support to the military and that they were doing a good job. The same posters would have castigated him.

No, I don't think he will be invited in for a chat, he did not really say anything wrong and this stupid idea that anyone who dares to voice their opinion is marched into the gulag at gunpoint for brainwashing is just crap, propaganda created by the anti-junta crowd.

My home country does not use attitude adjustments, not that I know of. But then again the Military has never had to step in to sort out a mess like the one created by the Shinawatras either.

[umbanda]

What was the alternative to the coup....... Civil War. Which scenario do you prefer?

A democratic election with the military helping to protect voters and venues a reasonable alternative perhaps?

A democratic election with a new party running with Prayut..... the best alternative perhaps?

[LuckyLew]

What was the alternative to the coup....... Civil War. Which scenario do you prefer?

A civil war would have been better for Thailand in the long run

A coup is just repeating the past as IMO nothing will change if and when they hold "Thai Style Democratic Elections"

[brewsterbudgen]

What was the alternative to the coup....... Civil War. Which scenario do you prefer?

A civil war would have been better for Thailand in the long run

A coup is just repeating the past as IMO nothing will change if and when they hold "Thai Style Democratic Elections"

They served their purpose in England and America, but at considerable cost.

[WhizBang]

Prayut govt 'may stay on longer'

No sh!t Sherlock. Whoda thunk?

This coup is going to end BADLY.

[Thailand]

What was the alternative to the coup....... Civil War. Which scenario do you prefer?

A democratic election with the military helping to protect voters and venues a reasonable alternative perhaps?

A democratic election with a new party running with Prayut..... the best alternative perhaps?

The man who removed democracy?

[h90]

What was the alternative to the coup....... Civil War. Which scenario do you prefer?

A democratic election with the military helping to protect voters and venues a reasonable alternative perhaps?

As elections with full scale vote buying are worthless I assume that you agree that the military prevents that as well.

So after the election the military would put 75% of the elected politicians into jail, right?

And than?

Or we just have another fake elections with the richest buy themself into power.

[h90]

What was the alternative to the coup....... Civil War. Which scenario do you prefer?

A democratic election with the military helping to protect voters and venues a reasonable alternative perhaps?

A democratic election with a new party running with Prayut..... the best alternative perhaps?

The man who removed democracy?

Sonthi who did the coup before was in the coalition with Yingluck.....

[smedly]

I have no issue with the current government staying as long as is needed provided it results in a robust constitution and political system that can actually last more than 2 years and has enough checks and balances to prevent the unrivalled abuse we witnessed from the last government.

It still amuses me how any country can have a convicted criminal that should be in jail as PM, can you imagine the scenario if he hadn't managed to evade arrest and was actually running things from a jail cell in between his court visits - the mind boggles

[robblok]

What was the alternative to the coup....... Civil War. Which scenario do you prefer?

Well the military could have always assisted in restoring democracy under the previous Constitution. After all, they wrote it to solve the problems justifying the previous coup, and the previous.

Let's face the facts, there wont ever be civil war in Thailand because they can't even do that right. They will talk about it, huff and puff, chest beat and if it every looked like gaining momentum, they will run as fast as they can, just a few paces behind the military.

The previous government is the one with an armed wing of terrorist that they released on the protesters. It was that wing they kept hidden. I believe there were even high profile PTP ministers at the meeting where people cheered when the armed wing of the government threw grenades in a group of protesters and fired automatic weapons. Killing 2 kids and other people.

You mean the government who bullied anyone who came with proof that the rice program was failing and corrupt ?

You mean the government that held secret sessions of parliament voting while they already send the opposition back home ?

You mean the government that let people vote for others and then have that MP lying about it even though he was caught on video ?

You mean the government led by a convicted criminal ?

You mean the government that wanted to put 26.000 cases of corruption under the amnesty and at the last moment added their criminal leader to the list of people to get amnesty even though they said they would not. (this was what ignited it all)

So you wanted the army to support an utterly corrupt government ?

If the previous government played by the rules they would be in power. If there is anyone to blame its the arrogant Thaksin.

[tx22cb]

If, and it is a big if, the Prayut Govt is going to hang on to power for much longer, then I urge Prayut to calm down and not take things so personally - otherwise he'll burst a blood vessel during one of his press conferences.

I heard that Gen Prem was a master at this in his hey day - a supreme manifestation of talking softly but carrying a big stick.

[mikemac]

What was the alternative to the coup....... Civil War. Which scenario do you prefer?

Well the military could have always assisted in restoring democracy under the previous Constitution. After all, they wrote it to solve the problems justifying the previous coup, and the previous.

Let's face the facts, there wont ever be civil war in Thailand because they can't even do that right. They will talk about it, huff and puff, chest beat and if it every looked like gaining momentum, they will run as fast as they can, just a few paces behind the military.

The previous government is the one with an armed wing of terrorist that they released on the protesters. It was that wing they kept hidden. I believe there were even high profile PTP ministers at the meeting where people cheered when the armed wing of the government threw grenades in a group of protesters and fired automatic weapons. Killing 2 kids and other people.

You mean the government who bullied anyone who came with proof that the rice program was failing and corrupt ?

You mean the government that held secret sessions of parliament voting while they already send the opposition back home ?

You mean the government that let people vote for others and then have that MP lying about it even though he was caught on video ?

You mean the government led by a convicted criminal ?

You mean the government that wanted to put 26.000 cases of corruption under the amnesty and at the last moment added their criminal leader to the list of people to get amnesty even though they said they would not. (this was what ignited it all)

So you wanted the army to support an utterly corrupt government ?

If the previous government played by the rules they would be in power. If there is anyone to blame its the arrogant Thaksin.

When you list all their shortcomings it is hard to believe, and scary as well, that their are actually people out there who support that rat's nest.

Or at least they say they do.....................