New potential problem looming

[Sparkles]

Its not exactly Chiang Mai specific but areas around CM will be affected as potentially the country is now facing of one of the worse droughts on record.

There are currently 27 provinces affected, seems the worst being Phitsanulok and Ratchaburi. Dams are simply empty.

Thais are not renowned for water management and other matters ,like pollution ,have recently taken centre stage but keep an eye on this one.

There will be no over supply of rice this coming season unless sufficient rainfall comes in the immediate future and weather pattern are now so unpredictable.

If anyone has knowledge of the state of water storage capacity for CM it would be interesting

[masuk]

you're so right about Thais and water management.

Every day I see the gardener next door watering lawns in the heat of the day, instead of before 8am and at dusk, where the majority of the water will not evaporate.

In Australia, even the toilets have a choice of 'big' flush or 'small' flush, depending on the use. It saves a couple of litres per use, and it all adds up.

Hopefully the thunderstorms forecast for next week will bring some rain.

[vivid]

There is a very weak El Nino that's happening as of now (it's official). Won't really impact the weather much, but if there's a drought in NE Thailand right now then don't expect heck loads of sustained thunderstorms for 2-3 weeks I guess. El Ninos dry weather to this SEA region and also some other regions. The impact of dryness depends on the intensity, which depends on the degree of ocean warming.

ie there probably won't be any miracles.

Weather is unpredictable, the El Nino status can change any time. Yes that is very true. Hence, what has indeed changed is that Supercyclone Pam and Tropical Storm Bavi influenced the trade winds which may induce further oceanic warming and start off a cycle that could intensify the El Nino.

Anything is possible though, eg they absolutely screwed up last year's El Nino's forecast.

Just my zero cents worth.

http://news.discovery.com/earth/weather-extreme-events/twin-cyclones-could-jolt-weak-el-nino-150314.htm

Edited March 19, 2015 by vivid

[vivid]

You can follow the current El Nino's status at Australia's BOM as well.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Tropical cyclone activity may lead to further ocean warming

Issued on 17 March 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The past fortnight has seen unusual conditions in the tropical Pacific, which may increase the chance of El Niño in 2015.

In the western Pacific, severe tropical cyclone Pam and tropical storm Bavi* straddled the equator, producing one of the strongest reversals in the trade winds in recent years. This change is expected to increase the already warm sub-surface temperatures currently observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures in the coming months. However, it remains too early to say whether the reversal in the trade winds is a short term fluctuation or the beginning of a sustained trend.

International models surveyed by the Bureau have strengthened their outlooks for the likelihood of El Niño, with all eight models suggesting ocean temperatures will exceed El Niño thresholds by mid-year. However, model outlooks spanning the traditional ENSO transition period, February to May, generally have lower accuracy than outlooks made at other times of year.

The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño WATCH. This is due to a combination of warmer-than-average sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and models indicating that central and eastern tropical Pacific will warm to El Niño thresholds by mid-year. An El Niño WATCH indicates that there is about a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2015—double the normal likelihood of an event.

El Niño is often associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia.

Next update expected on 31 March 2015 | print version

[FolkGuitar]

Just goes to show ya how wrong I can be. I thought 'heat' would be the next thing people would complain about.

[Chicog]

From what I've heard the dams are full. They're just not giving anyone water to grow rice because they already have enough rice.

[whiterussian]

Mobile pumping station here taking water from the Ping to fields over by Baan Tawai... it's pumping 24/7 for 2 to 3 weeks.

Also have a huge water storage facility built in Pa Daed area, and huge water pipes being laid - looks like they're aiming for Chang Klang and into the city.

[kaptainrob]

If artesian wells dry up we'll be in deep kee!

40 to 50m bores required and quite a large investment for mooban's or individuals but more reliable than rainfall. Biggest problem with rainwater collection is dust pollution and leaf matter and massive long-term storage requirements in cbd.

[opalred]

we are lucky not many frangs coming to wash and drink water

[eyecatcher]

Its all well and good dissing Thais for water management but for a minute go to the other end of the spectrum.

I was reading last week that California is already dipping into tank reserve 2of 3 and they say it had only 1 year of supply left.

So given the 12month notice are they doing anything about it or are they going to have a summer "bang fai" festival and trust in the Gods

[CNXBKKMAN]

Mae Kuang dam(probably spelt wrong near doi saket) looked low during the rainy season last year. It's even lower now. I am only guessing but to even to half fill it up we would need a really wet rainy season. I expect water restrictions will kick in only when taps start to run dry.

I have noticed in the city the Ping river looks deep and abundant but go about 6 miles north of the city on the road adjacent to the river. This would be road Dukes is on, go north past Riverside restaurant and basically keep going for about 5 or 6 miles you come to a nice spot with a bit of a terrace and you can actually drive down to the river bed. The water is knee deep and I watched a local walk across the river spreading his fishing net. That was in February.

[northernjohn]

Mae Kuang dam(probably spelt wrong near doi saket) looked low during the rainy season last year. It's even lower now. I am only guessing but to even to half fill it up we would need a really wet rainy season. I expect water restrictions will kick in only when taps start to run dry.

I have noticed in the city the Ping river looks deep and abundant but go about 6 miles north of the city on the road adjacent to the river. This would be road Dukes is on, go north past Riverside restaurant and basically keep going for about 5 or 6 miles you come to a nice spot with a bit of a terrace and you can actually drive down to the river bed. The water is knee deep and I watched a local walk across the river spreading his fishing net. That was in February.

The Ping is the lowest I have seen it at the Navarat bridge in 5 years of continues walking across it.

Got the spelling of a map. It is the one Tha Pai road comes from.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

^ You got the spelling of Tha Pai from a map too?

Just goes to show ya how wrong I can be. I thought 'heat' would be the next thing people would complain about.

Nah, next up is "Songkran" first.

[puukao]

drought, more fires, more pollution, more heat, less relief, more visa problems, more expensive, more traffic, more tourists, less money (currency, unless USD), more political issues, etc.

tourist paradise!!! smiles for all!!!

[vivid]

Its all well and good dissing Thais for water management but for a minute go to the other end of the spectrum.

I was reading last week that California is already dipping into tank reserve 2of 3 and they say it had only 1 year of supply left.

So given the 12month notice are they doing anything about it or are they going to have a summer "bang fai" festival and trust in the Gods

Just some my zero cents worth...

Actually the state of California can do seawater desalination as well as recovery of non potable water from sewerage (using some modified microfiltration and reverse osmosis). Such treated water can be pumped to refill the reservoirs for further treatment into portable running tap water etc. The treated water from sewerage is actually extremely clean and is one of the cleanest sources around (it just has the psychological effect of being dirty, we used to call it shit water.

) :

I am sure most of the towns can afford it, definitely no problem for the affluent cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco. The starte is "long and thin", max distance from the sea is about 200km. And the technologies are thhhhaaattt expensive to start with anyway.

Chiang Mai is quite a bit farther from the shoreline, so......

We've been trying this out in SG for about 10yrs. We just got a record drought in 2014 during this period, about 2 months during the dry phase of the NE monsoon. We got exactly 0.1mm of precipitation. This 2015, not too good either but slightly better than 2014.

This is to reduce reliance on our neighbouring country (we get raw water from them).

Recovery of water from sewerage (3 plants currently)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NEWater

Desalination (2 plants currently)

http://app.mewr.gov.sg/web/Contents/Contents.aspx?ContId=1746

[Beng]

According to CNN weather there will be some rain soon,

http://weather.edition.cnn.com/weather/intl/forecast.jsp?locCode=THXX0003&zipCode=527723462547

[FolkGuitar]

^ You got the spelling of Tha Pai from a map too?

Just goes to show ya how wrong I can be. I thought 'heat' would be the next thing people would complain about.

Nah, next up is "Songkran" first.

Oops! I forgot that one! There are just sooo many.

Edited March 20, 2015 by FolkGuitar

[Gonzo the Face]

Mae Kuang dam(probably spelt wrong near doi saket) looked low during the rainy season last year. It's even lower now. I am only guessing but to even to half fill it up we would need a really wet rainy season. I expect water restrictions will kick in only when taps start to run dry.

I have noticed in the city the Ping river looks deep and abundant but go about 6 miles north of the city on the road adjacent to the river. This would be road Dukes is on, go north past Riverside restaurant and basically keep going for about 5 or 6 miles you come to a nice spot with a bit of a terrace and you can actually drive down to the river bed. The water is knee deep and I watched a local walk across the river spreading his fishing net. That was in February.

The Ping is the lowest I have seen it at the Navarat bridge in 5 years of continues walking across it.

Got the spelling of a map. It is the one Tha Pai road comes from.

I can second that..... in my almost 20 years now on the river, I have never seen the water level this low.

G

[dave2]

re

in my almost 20 years now on the river, I have never seen the water level this low.

hes right

river level pics taken three days ago

and even the pond level in buak hard park is down more than a

foot from six weeks ago !

pic 1 .. 1 feb 15

pic 2 .. 17 mar 15

dave2

[khwaibah]

Next months Songkran may look like this. 1964

http://purechiangmai.com/?q=old-pictures-chiang-mai

Edited March 20, 2015 by khwaibah

[CNXBKKMAN]

I think the Ping depth is managed for length of it that runs adjacent to the city. There's a big set of locks south of the city. You can walk across the Ping right now if you move away from the city centre just like that b&w photo.

[CMBob]

From what I've heard the dams are full. They're just not giving anyone water to grow rice because they already have enough rice.

Not sure where you "heard" that. The dams were lower than usual in November and that's exactly why they told the farmers not to plant a second rice crop (as there would not be enough water for that second crop). There were several articles in the newspapers about that in late 2014.

Now whether any of that is a "potential problem" as the OP suggests, it definitely is if the OP knows how much it will or won't rain in the upcoming rainy season. I doubt if he does. But things can drastically change in just a few months....it was less than 3 years ago that all the major dams were between 97% and 157% capacity.

[Sparkles]

From what I've heard the dams are full. They're just not giving anyone water to grow rice because they already have enough rice.

Not sure where you "heard" that. The dams were lower than usual in November and that's exactly why they told the farmers not to plant a second rice crop (as there would not be enough water for that second crop). There were several articles in the newspapers about that in late 2014.

Now whether any of that is a "potential problem" as the OP suggests, it definitely is if the OP knows how much it will or won't rain in the upcoming rainy season. I doubt if he does. But things can drastically change in just a few months....it was less than 3 years ago that all the major dams were between 97% and 157% capacity.

As the OP I deliberately used the word "potential" as I agree it could rain cats and dogs in the near future but to say the dams are full now is nonsense.The Kwae Bamrung Dan dam in Phitsanulok for example was only 10.4 % full last November and no rain since. Its also not only rice farmers that are affected, farmers do grown other crops Chigog in case that fact had passed you by.

27 provinces have been declared drought stricken, as reported to the national press yesterday, I hardly think they would do that if dams were full and crossing the Ping today it does look lower than usual for this time of the year.

[TPI]

From what I've heard the dams are full. They're just not giving anyone water to grow rice because they already have enough rice.

[dave2]

re

There's a big set of locks south of the city. You can walk across the Ping right now if you move away from the city centre just like that b&w photo.

hes right !

dave2

[jacko45k]

Save water, cancel Songkran!

[maidee]

a good uncontrolled mega flood in november will fix all the drought problems

start cutting some pig heads for the temples

they should tell thai people, that burning fields, scare away the rain gods (global warming for dummies)

[ScarpoFongness4U]

Went to a waterfall park near the big dam about 2 hours north of Bangkok last year,

It was bone dry

[worgeordie]

I predicted at the end of the rainy season that there would be drought

this year,BUT I don't think its anything to worry about,as you can rely

on the Thai Government to have made the same assumption and will

have plans in place for when the water is coming out the taps in trickles,and drips.

just like the plans they had in place for the annual smog fest ,which

has happened for the last umpteen years,its not like a natural disaster,

you know this time next year is just going to be the same!

regards Worgeordie

[Sparkles]

The Bangkok Post reports today that 15 million litres of water have already been delivered to drought crisis areas both on the mainland and on islands.