US allies defect as new world order tips towards China

[ravip]

CHINA. CHINA. CHINA - This is GOOD news and a fact! But extremely bitter for some!

Washington cannot afford to let a new international foreign exchange regime come into being. With a budget deficit of $1 trillion a year, the US needs to finance its debt with borrowing.

The curtain is coming down, so...the shameless game begins!

e.g. Libya, Syria... But China would be a wee bit difficult!

[Publicus]

Entire New 13-Story Building Tips Over in Shanghai

This past Saturday, an entire apartment building in Shanghai collapsed. To be fair, the building was under construction and thus unoccupied, but it's still a minor miracle that there was only one fatality.

Sounds like there was a problem with some nearby flood prevention walls at the Dianpu River, but there's no hard evidence as to why this huge building simply fell over. Anyway, here are some pictures of the architectural carnage. [Cellar.org via Twitter]

http://gizmodo.com/5304233/entire-new-13-story-building-tips-over-in-shanghai/

You have made a big thing out of that without bothering to explain the reason.

They were digging alongside the building to make an underground parking place and undermined the foundations of the building on one side, that combined with heavy rain that softened the ground caused it to topple.

You should note that the building didn't break apart when it hit the ground.

They were digging alongside the building to make an underground parking place

Any person interested or curious about it might take note that this, yet another instance of a building toppling over led the CCP authorities to order that schools of architecture and architectural firms themselves review applicable curriculum, teaching, professional practices, qualifications and the like to ensure that all rules be adhered to, most specifically, the rules and laws that underground construction be substantially completed before above ground construction begins in earnest.

The PRC Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, which includes architecture also ordered that rules and practices be adhered to concerning continuing soil samplings and measurements, water levels etc before foundation poles are pile-driven in place, and that the poles be at a proper depth and properly encased.

China to declare war on ‘bizarre architecture’

Buildings resembling grand pianos, penguins and internal organs likely to fall victim to new Chinese architecture rules

The days in which architects in China were allowed to create buildings resembling penguins, pianos or even male genitalia appear numbered after a top Communist Party official announced plans for an offensive against “bizarre architecture”.

Beijing will soon unveil rules making it harder for “strange buildings” to be given planning permission, Yang Shichao, a senior official from southern China, was quoted as saying by the Guangzhou Daily newspaper.

“It’s going to be difficult, but I believe it is a good thing that at least architects will design buildings that give more thought to the needs of the people and to environmental protection, rather than ones which seek simply to be eye-catching.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/11249874/China-to-declare-war-on-bizarre-architecture.html

It Really Is the Most Penisy Building Ever Erected

Just look at the building. Take all the time you need.

And you thought the Washington Monument was phallic?

When the Chinese Communist Party's official newspaper needed a new building for their headquarters, they turned to a professor of architecture, Zhou Qi. Little did they know that Zhou had every intention of building an enormous erect penis of a building. And the best part? Everyone involved should have seen it coming.

http://www.cracked.com/quick-fixes/how-one-man-tricked-china-into-building-giant-dong/

[Scott]

Thank you for the review of architecture in China, BUT let's get back on topic please.

[Publicus]

No problem, thx for the prod.

The confused OP is arguing the common position of the Obama Administration and Xi Jinping, both of which wrongheadedly want the US to stay out of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Yet, almost every economist or bank in the United States wants into the AIIB, almost every US ally in East Asia and the EU wants the US in the AIIB and want to go in with it. Only Washington and Tokyo are resisting joining the AIIB and doing hard lobbying against allies joining. Consequently, this will soon have to change.

Singapore for instance, a founding member of AIIB with Beijing and a close longtime non-treaty supporter of the US, has been imploring the US to join the bank. So has Asean. It is the only way to keep the CCP Boyz in Beijing from starting a bank by the end of this year that will uselessly and ineffectively compete to no avail with the IMF in particular, but also against the World Bank and the regionally powerful Asia Development Bank.

Without membership of the AIIB by the US, EU, and major East Asia countries, there will be unwanted and unnecessary competition between Beijing and the existing international infrastructure of development finance that will put governments on all continents unnecessarily on the spot, thereby retarding developmental progress, cause unnecessary friction among nations and regions, delay urgently needed regional and global infrastructure development that is projected to total $8 Trillion between now and 2020, with another $5 Trillion projected to 2025, with another $4 Trillion out to 2030.

Only the US, EU, Japan have the capital to finance these projects, and only the US with the EU and Japan have the clout to make the AIIB a well governed institution that operates according to the rule of law, minimal corruption, maximum transparency, accountability, oversight and much more.

Further, the AIIB is not a competitor to the IMF, primarily because the IMF is the funding institution of the last resort in a sovereign crisis, rather than a development bank per se. The IMF for instance is assisting Ukraine in its ongoing crisis rather than providing normal routine development funds.

The benefits of membership of the AIIB for infrastructure development are obvious for the US, EU, Japan. The trans-oceanic FTAs now in final stages of negotiation complement membership of the AIIB. The Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership, and the Trans-Atlantic Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership unify the US, EU, Japan in a huge global and trans-oceanic financial partnership producing almost of 50% of global GDP and doing one-third of global trade.

Joining the AIIB to provide its needed governance, rules, capital, is a no brainer for the US and its global allies. It would simultaneously incorporate Beijing into the existing international order. Incorporating the AIIB prevents and precludes unnecessary conflict, competition, contests that hamper everyone, the emerging markets and developing economies in particular.

The case is well summarized by Dr. Elizabeth Economy, the esteemed China expert at the private Council on Foreign Relations in New York, writing in the NYT last October....

Prioritizing these issues within the A.I.I.B. can help ensure that bidding for investment projects is transparent and open only to firms that operate with high corporate social responsibility standards. The bank could establish an independent auditing process that insists that broader health, social welfare and environmental considerations are fully addressed. Such measures, however, are only likely to be adopted with guidance from other countries with much stronger corporate social responsibility histories than that of China, such as Singapore, Australia and South Korea — not to mention the United States.

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/10/20/a-chinese-rival-to-the-world-bank/a-chance-to-introduce-social-and-environmental-protections

Edited March 21, 2015 by Publicus

[sgtsabai]

I would agree that the EU, Japan and the US should be needed to make the organization lawful etc., except for the fact that we aren't lawful. The so-called "free trade" agreements are nothing but multinational corporations law and will benefit only the corporations and plutocrats. They are NAFTA on multiple steroids and a disaster for all the working/middle/poor classes affected. According to the leaks of drafts of the super secret, not even Congress can see, phony trade agreements corporations overrule national law, medicines get world wide US prices and patents and the internet is censored and/or controlled by corporations/government. IMF and World Bank are as corrupt as they come and when they get involved, the people loose. Yes, China is doing this to destroy the US influence and power, they just got tired of waiting for us to do it to ourselves (give it another teabag 'election' or two). One way or the other, too many countries have economies that are false, like a house of cards and I believe China is one. As much as I have come to despise what has become of the country I loved, between the lesser of two evils I'll take what is left of America, not China. I've gotten an earful lately from Lao people on their thoughts about China running their country.

[Asiantravel]

This is the same anti-American conspiracy theorist who a short while back was writing article after article about how Russia was going to lead the way and destroy the US. Now that the Russian economy is in shambles, he's latching on to China. All that Chinese financial clout? Backed by the world's worst pollution, massive corruption, ghost cities, tofu bridges, buildings, and overapasses, and a middle in class in a debt trap that is pushing them to oblivion. Yeah, China's the answer alright.

Ah, nothing hurts more than the truth. USD is a walking dead. Just matter of time when even the US will dump USD.

Tofu bridges? Tofu bridges must be pretty good because they rank pretty high on this list:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest_bridges_in_the_world

Do you know that Chinese build bridges in the US, San Francisco of all the places:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8602786/New-San-Francisco-bridge-built-in-China-to-be-shipped-to-US.html

Comparing middle class in China and US is the best example of your ignorance. Chinese are savers, Americans spenders.

There simply is NO comparison (Chinese household debt is 17% vs 136% in the US, or 266% if national debt taken into account):

http://www.forbes.com/sites/moneybuilder/2010/06/24/one-big-difference-between-chinese-and-american-households-debt/

Ignorant and proud of it!

Even the USA could boast a superior infrastructure decades ago, they certainly can't do that today. They should have spent their money on looking after their infrastructure instead of fighting so many wars

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the-us-economy-is-under-threat-because-of-its-neglected-infrastructure-10125082.html

[Publicus]

There is that point of view concerning Nafta and all FTA's, TPP's, AIIB's and the like.

The US anyway has lots of allies and continues to have lots of allies despite the OP and his ideological case building and his absolute and usual nonsensical drivel, for which he is already well known. No allies are "deserting" the CCP Boyz in Beijing which is because Beijing doesn't have any allies, nor is Beijing gaining any new friends. Beijing is instead making new enemies of old pals....

The mention of Laos in your post and how people there are already tired of their country being run as a department of Beijing's overbearing foreign policy is yet another instance of the apprehension of the region concerning Beijing.

The Myanmar government, which Prez Obama has visited twice, isn't too happy with Beijing either cause it just the other day dropped some bombs on Yunnan province just inside the PRC to tell the Boyz in Beijing to stop trying to make Myanmar a department of Beijing too, which is what's happened in the country's north.

China condemned the Kokang incident, claiming on Saturday that bombs dropped by a Myanmar military jet fighter landed on a field in the Lincang region of western Yunnan province, killing four and injuring nine others. They were all reportedly working on a sugarcane field.

The incident and the subsequent diplomatic stand-off have highlighted growing tensions between the two longstanding allies, adding to existing disagreements over China's massive investments in natural resources and infrastructure projects in Myanmar.

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Myanmar-border-conflict-spreads-to-Yunnan-as-jet-bombing-kills-4-in-China

Beijing's record in international and regional forums, banks, investment initiatives and the like is well known to be far from stellar, as the stillborn Brics Development Bank most recently attests (remember that white elephant?).

So if running nationalist and ethnic takeovers or active insurgencies in neighboring countries is how the Boyz are going to determine infrastructure investments then somebody has got to put some cops on the beat, which is another reason why the US needs to get into the AIIB to team up with its traditional and long standing allies.

As to the Congress, it isn't going to approve anything the president does which is why we have elections, the next one being in 2016 when the Democrats are in a strong position to regain control of the Senate which is the graveyard where all of these treaties have to go one way or the other.

Edited March 22, 2015 by Publicus

[Publicus]

This is the same anti-American conspiracy theorist who a short while back was writing article after article about how Russia was going to lead the way and destroy the US. Now that the Russian economy is in shambles, he's latching on to China. All that Chinese financial clout? Backed by the world's worst pollution, massive corruption, ghost cities, tofu bridges, buildings, and overapasses, and a middle in class in a debt trap that is pushing them to oblivion. Yeah, China's the answer alright.

Ah, nothing hurts more than the truth. USD is a walking dead. Just matter of time when even the US will dump USD.

Tofu bridges? Tofu bridges must be pretty good because they rank pretty high on this list:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest_bridges_in_the_world

Do you know that Chinese build bridges in the US, San Francisco of all the places:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8602786/New-San-Francisco-bridge-built-in-China-to-be-shipped-to-US.html

Comparing middle class in China and US is the best example of your ignorance. Chinese are savers, Americans spenders.

There simply is NO comparison (Chinese household debt is 17% vs 136% in the US, or 266% if national debt taken into account):

http://www.forbes.com/sites/moneybuilder/2010/06/24/one-big-difference-between-chinese-and-american-households-debt/

Ignorant and proud of it!

Even the USA could boast a superior infrastructure decades ago, they certainly can't do that today. They should have spent their money on looking after their infrastructure instead of fighting so many wars

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the-us-economy-is-under-threat-because-of-its-neglected-infrastructure-10125082.html

America needs more like minded people in the congress which is where Prez Obama's infrastructure investment program was formally buried after Republicans took over several years ago.

Lemme know if you decide to file papers to run cause I'd consider helping to elect you.....on this issue...after which I would encourage you to resign.

[sgtsabai]

Yes to all the above...lol. A bit of an antidote to the US and the Congress, why we are in such a fix and urging somebody to resign. When Barbara Johnson convinced my good friend Mickey Leland to run for the Texas Legislature in an overture to her seat in Congress he was elected from the 5th Ward in Houston. He told me that he had never seen such a mess as the Texass legislature, fist fights on the floor, etc. Wondered why he was even there. He said the US Congress wasn't much better. After taking Barbara Jorden's place he managed to make a lot of enemies in the government of the time, his plane ran into the side of a big mountain on a fact finding tour in Africa. Today's legislature is much worse. Fast track is the danger, and the Repubs are all for corporations and plutocrats. This does not bode well for "competition" with China. The entire world sees the complete dsyfunction of the last 6 yrs. due to Repubs. refusing to do anything. You are correct, allies aren't deserting a sinking ship (although it may be in fact taking on a lot of water) but hedging their bets. They know what China is (well maybe excepting dear leader) and the US is. Big finance runs the world. The swing in Myanmar to the west came from fear of the Chinese, as well it should. This isn't the first time China has tried something like this, and it won't be the last.

[rijb]

Funny you should mention that...

“Since the Chinese military has stepped up its border presence, there is now a real possibility of direct military engagement between the People’s Liberation Army and the Myanmar military,” according to an assessment last week by Stratfor Global Intelligence.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/22/world/asia/myanmars-fight-with-rebels-creates-refugees-and-ill-will-with-china.html?_r=0

[Pakboong]

While I do not really keep up with Laotian politics, I am aware of the ongoing demonization plan for China. All part of the same struggle. I do hope it works out. Our CIA will start up as many of these wild fires as humanly possible. It is their day job.

The good news is, the Chinese are in uncharted waters. They need many more years to pull off whatever it is they are trying to do with BRICS. The IMF, World Bank, and BIS are all established and have worked out the kinks over the years. There will be many kinks for the Chinese and the Russians to work out as well. Their broad idea has merit, I doubt they can pull it off.

We will try and force their hand so they do not have the time they need. It is the best strategy IMO. There is a lot of unrest in our world and more to come.

[hawker9000]

Entire New 13-Story Building Tips Over in Shanghai

This past Saturday, an entire apartment building in Shanghai collapsed. To be fair, the building was under construction and thus unoccupied, but it's still a minor miracle that there was only one fatality.

Sounds like there was a problem with some nearby flood prevention walls at the Dianpu River, but there's no hard evidence as to why this huge building simply fell over. Anyway, here are some pictures of the architectural carnage. [Cellar.org via Twitter]

http://gizmodo.com/5304233/entire-new-13-story-building-tips-over-in-shanghai/

You have made a big thing out of that without bothering to explain the reason.

They were digging alongside the building to make an underground parking place and undermined the foundations of the building on one side, that combined with heavy rain that softened the ground caused it to topple.

You should note that the building didn't break apart when it hit the ground.

Lol. I'm sure that matters a lot to whomever they're getting ready to shoot, but all the same, I think I'd prefer my apartment building standing up please...

[h90]

This is the same anti-American conspiracy theorist who a short while back was writing article after article about how Russia was going to lead the way and destroy the US. Now that the Russian economy is in shambles, he's latching on to China. All that Chinese financial clout? Backed by the world's worst pollution, massive corruption, ghost cities, tofu bridges, buildings, and overapasses, and a middle in class in a debt trap that is pushing them to oblivion. Yeah, China's the answer alright.

The Russian industry isn't in shambles. But it isn't doing well. US industrial situation isn't perfect as well. High debts and inflated.

Problem is that USA made a lot enemies over the last couple of years. But that could change after the next elections.

US economy isn't the overwhelming strong anymore, so they can buy everyone. US Army is overwhelming strong but not as strong to be able to win a direct confrontation in China or Russia. Both China and Russia have weapons that easily sink an aircraft carrier so they are less afraid in compare to the past.

[Berkshire]

This is the same anti-American conspiracy theorist who a short while back was writing article after article about how Russia was going to lead the way and destroy the US. Now that the Russian economy is in shambles, he's latching on to China. All that Chinese financial clout? Backed by the world's worst pollution, massive corruption, ghost cities, tofu bridges, buildings, and overapasses, and a middle in class in a debt trap that is pushing them to oblivion. Yeah, China's the answer alright.

The Russian industry isn't in shambles. But it isn't doing well. US industrial situation isn't perfect as well. High debts and inflated.

Problem is that USA made a lot enemies over the last couple of years. But that could change after the next elections.

US economy isn't the overwhelming strong anymore, so they can buy everyone. US Army is overwhelming strong but not as strong to be able to win a direct confrontation in China or Russia. Both China and Russia have weapons that easily sink an aircraft carrier so they are less afraid in compare to the past.

I understand that English is not your native language, but your ignorance of military capability is rather breathtaking. You really have no idea what you're talking about. Firstly, a carrier will always be a part of a Battle Group and that's done so for a reason. Nothing will get near a carrier, whether underwater, surface, or air. But anyways, it's up to you if you want to support Russia and China. You should put your money where your mouth is and invest heavily in all things Chinese and Russian.

[sgtsabai]

A land war cannot be won in Russia or especially China. Russia maybe if the entire world jumped in. I think not in China. Air and sea is a different story. In regards to China's aggression, the US Marines are training Japanese Marines in taking an island. Hmmm, that sounds a bit strange...lol. The islands could be retaken, the mainland I think not. Neither Russia or China can match in the air or the sea. Yes, they have missiles that are capable of long range carrier attacks, capable doesn't necessarily mean would sink a carrier. When the smoke cleared China would not have a navy or an air force and the US would not be alone. If the US and Russia got into a nuke exchange the world would cease to exist as we know it. If China dared launch nukes, it would cease to exist as we know it. The major problems lie in the South China, East China seas. China's economic push has basically been soft power, but they have alienated where ever they have establish power. No country really likes them (maybe dear leader) but most are willing to accept their soft power for the money. To me, much of what is happening these days seems like China is trying to see how far it can go in establishing its power. An economic war between China and the US is already in place, just not to a large degree and not completely disruptive. A military war is very possible as China continues to push its neighbors. As I've said, I'm no fan of what my country has become, but between the two I'll take the corrupt US over the corrupt Chinese and I believe most of the "allies" (there are really none) will do so also. Dear leader is playing a very dangerous game trying to play the US against China. BTW, the US and Thailand are still doing joint military exercises. The US Air Force (+?) has been in Udon for a week or so, 2 C-17's and I saw one of those wonderful C-130's with those "things" sticking out the sides....lol. Along with the A-10, a foot soldier's prayer, if on the right side. No, allies aren't fleeing a sinking ship, just hedging their bets.

[h90]

This is the same anti-American conspiracy theorist who a short while back was writing article after article about how Russia was going to lead the way and destroy the US. Now that the Russian economy is in shambles, he's latching on to China. All that Chinese financial clout? Backed by the world's worst pollution, massive corruption, ghost cities, tofu bridges, buildings, and overapasses, and a middle in class in a debt trap that is pushing them to oblivion. Yeah, China's the answer alright.

The Russian industry isn't in shambles. But it isn't doing well. US industrial situation isn't perfect as well. High debts and inflated.

Problem is that USA made a lot enemies over the last couple of years. But that could change after the next elections.

US economy isn't the overwhelming strong anymore, so they can buy everyone. US Army is overwhelming strong but not as strong to be able to win a direct confrontation in China or Russia. Both China and Russia have weapons that easily sink an aircraft carrier so they are less afraid in compare to the past.

I understand that English is not your native language, but your ignorance of military capability is rather breathtaking. You really have no idea what you're talking about. Firstly, a carrier will always be a part of a Battle Group and that's done so for a reason. Nothing will get near a carrier, whether underwater, surface, or air. But anyways, it's up to you if you want to support Russia and China. You should put your money where your mouth is and invest heavily in all things Chinese and Russian.

Both China and Russia have special rockets that can take out an aircraft carrier or the complete battle group (with the nuke warhead). I can't judge if that is true or not, could be simple propaganda and only impressive on the paper. But usually the Russian weapons aren't worse than the American one and Russia was always good on the small rockets. For China I don't know, they claim to have these Rockets that fly with 4-6 times the speed of sound and are thus to fast to got all shot down.

While I can't judge if it is true or not and I guess there aren't many who know in detail, I trust both China and Russia didn't sleep the last decades and Russia had a good base on Hi-tec and China bought a lot technology from them. So I think it is easily possible that it is true.

[sgtsabai]

Yes, the Chinese have some pretty good stuff, they stole much of it from the US. There are credible sources that keep track of both the US military (mostly Navy/USMC) and the Chinese. You might try Information Dissemination http://www.informationdissemination.net/ for a starter. You will find other very good links within that site and well educated/informed comments relating to the economic/military aspects of the coming conflict. The US knows what China can field in the way of weapons. It's naval forces are rising, but not yet a "blue water" navy. That is changing. China would be fools to use nukes as would any country. China does not and cannot match up to the US in Air/Sea/Land battle when holding the islands it has taken. Any airbases on those islands they have taken or built would be gone within minutes of a shooting war. An attempt on a US carrier would result in the destruction of China's military infrastructure. The US would not be alone, more than likely any war that started over the China Seas would be with Japan whose air power is no slouch either. Remember, the US has not only military ties with many SE Asian/Asian countries, but also important economic ties as well. This would bring all in. While this topic is mainly about economics, it is important to remember that when dealing with China, their economic and military clout have to be considered together. They work hand and fist.

[hawker9000]

Somebody catches a news story somewhere about the DF-21D and suddenly they're the Alfred Thayer Mahan of the 21st century. Yes, the Chinese have such a thing, and yes, there's an ongoing concern about it. USN certainly takes it seriously. But it's a system of systems. It's not a simple fire & forget weapon, and there's a lot more to the picture than just the existence of the weapon. Simplistic statements about who'd win a naval war because of it are just that, simplistic and meaningless.

[Berkshire]

This is the same anti-American conspiracy theorist who a short while back was writing article after article about how Russia was going to lead the way and destroy the US. Now that the Russian economy is in shambles, he's latching on to China. All that Chinese financial clout? Backed by the world's worst pollution, massive corruption, ghost cities, tofu bridges, buildings, and overapasses, and a middle in class in a debt trap that is pushing them to oblivion. Yeah, China's the answer alright.

The Russian industry isn't in shambles. But it isn't doing well. US industrial situation isn't perfect as well. High debts and inflated.

Problem is that USA made a lot enemies over the last couple of years. But that could change after the next elections.

US economy isn't the overwhelming strong anymore, so they can buy everyone. US Army is overwhelming strong but not as strong to be able to win a direct confrontation in China or Russia. Both China and Russia have weapons that easily sink an aircraft carrier so they are less afraid in compare to the past.

I understand that English is not your native language, but your ignorance of military capability is rather breathtaking. You really have no idea what you're talking about. Firstly, a carrier will always be a part of a Battle Group and that's done so for a reason. Nothing will get near a carrier, whether underwater, surface, or air. But anyways, it's up to you if you want to support Russia and China. You should put your money where your mouth is and invest heavily in all things Chinese and Russian.

Both China and Russia have special rockets that can take out an aircraft carrier or the complete battle group (with the nuke warhead). I can't judge if that is true or not, could be simple propaganda and only impressive on the paper. But usually the Russian weapons aren't worse than the American one and Russia was always good on the small rockets. For China I don't know, they claim to have these Rockets that fly with 4-6 times the speed of sound and are thus to fast to got all shot down.

While I can't judge if it is true or not and I guess there aren't many who know in detail, I trust both China and Russia didn't sleep the last decades and Russia had a good base on Hi-tec and China bought a lot technology from them. So I think it is easily possible that it is true.

My point is that the US military has defenses for its Carrier Battle Groups and a missile attack has already been considered....along with pretty much everything else. But don't worry, there won't be any wars between China/Russia and the US because there probably won't be any winners. China and Russia knows that any sort of nuclear attack on the US would be met with the same and they would no longer exist. So for now, China, Russia, and the US will just wage cyber war on one another and hack the heck out of each other. That's really where the battleground is.

[impulse]

After decades of unimpeded trade, and tens of millions of shipping containers being swapped (with complex machinery inside), does anyone really think a missile or carrier group is necessary today to deliver a warhead?

I'm of the belief that pressing a button in Moscow, Beijing or DC is pretty much all the "delivery system" they'll need.

Edited March 23, 2015 by impulse

[hawker9000]

A single warhead, even a nuclear one, might be enough to start a war, but not enough to win one. But you've been watching too many Hollywood movies if you think it's a trivial matter to smuggle a nuke into the U.S. If it were that easy, it would've been done by now.

[impulse]

Hawker,

And there's no way for the Japanese to get all the way to Hawaii without being detected....

Edited March 23, 2015 by impulse

[hawker9000]

Hawker,

And there's no way for the Japanese to get all the way to Hawaii without being detected....

?? Japanese arrive in Hawaii everyday; I don't think most have any concern about doing it "undetected". When did the discussion become about a Japanese person getting to Hawaii undetected? I thought it was about nukes getting to the U.S. undetected.

[impulse]

That was common thinking before December 7, 1941.

Any time we underestimate what a foe can do, we're at risk of having it happen to us.

[sgtsabai]

Ahem, with the inclusion of Pearl Harbor we are going just a bit off topic here. Admitedly US inteligence agencies have their collective heads up their asses most of the time (too busy spying on their own people) but a Pearl Harbor? Give me a break. Right now the battleground is cyber warfare and that is very, very real. The US is not winning, but holding it's own. Yes, cyber warfare does include economic warfare. The very real danger there is one side will push the other too far and it will turn into real warfare. Many wars were basically economic at the beginning.

[impulse]

Ahem, with the inclusion of Pearl Harbor we are going just a bit off topic here. Admitedly US inteligence agencies have their collective heads up their asses most of the time (too busy spying on their own people) but a Pearl Harbor? Give me a break. Right now the battleground is cyber warfare and that is very, very real. The US is not winning, but holding it's own. Yes, cyber warfare does include economic warfare. The very real danger there is one side will push the other too far and it will turn into real warfare. Many wars were basically economic at the beginning.

Another great example that makes my point. I'm seeing discussions of naval power, land engagements, and relative military strength.

That's yesterday's battlefield.

[sgtsabai]

I'm afraid you missed my point. No, that is NOT yesterday's battlefield, it is tomorrow's and if China doesn't quit it's pushing neighboring countries that the US has military and economic treaties with it will be sooner than later. The US fears China's expansion as well it and all countries should. China does not aim to share the wealth. This is not the same as the mistakes made in the middle east. It is real and it should have been on the radar long ago instead of fighting for oil and armageddon, yes Bush was that crazy, and stupid. The US has had wrong headed policies for many years (circa Ronnie) and has been overly confident in it's neocon/neoliberal policies, they don't work, never have worked, never will work, but do piss off people. Now another country wishes to restore a long lost empire by hook or crook. If level heads and proper preparation do not take place on both side very soon, the economic/cyber warfare will escalate and escalate quickly. I wouldn't count on either side for level headedness.

[impulse]

sgtsabai, we agree on every point you made.

But look at our weapons, look at who controls the vast majority of rare earths and titanium in the world, and tell me how much we have in the Strategic Titanium Reserve, or the Strategic Rare Earth Reserve.

As to my "push a button" capability, we all immediately went to "nukes" How about a few high voltage pulse emitters to take out all the transformers on the East Coast power grids? Transformers with a 2 year replacement leadtime, and heavy dependence on China for a lot of the raw materials. If a tree falling on a line in an ice storm can cripple the region for days, imagine what a crafty engineer with state level resources could do...

The OP is about non-military conflict. That's the way I think it will go. It will be cyber, it will be financial, it will be control of strategic materials, and it will be manufacturing capacity. The nations and peoples that we have so profoundly pissed off in the past 30 years will count. And they won't be on our side this time. Carrier groups, strategic subs, air power, and foot soldiers will play their part, but they won't win it for us.

Putting all our defense money eggs into those old line military baskets is foolish.

Edited March 23, 2015 by impulse

[sgtsabai]

In part I agree. Years ago, during the nixon regime I told a supposed "retired" CIA agent taking a class I was in that a few dedicated people could shut down the US. He was pissed when I said all it takes is taking out the right power transmission lines. Because, I was right. I was already on their "list". Of course things were simpler then. I like your conspiracy theories, hope that people somewhere are paying attention to just that, as I've said, US intelligence agencies (oxymoron?) have been asleep at the wheel for some time. On the other hand, I don't believe it will happen. In fact, a massive cyber electrical grid attack will bring military response. The US has not won a real war since WWII and I'm afraid doesn't know how. That is my biggest fear. We do not know how to "win hearts and minds" as I saw first hand, up close and personal during the American War in Vietnam. The US cannot win a cyber war because it doesn't understand in the long run truth must prevail, not propaganda. The same goes on the economic front. All we and the rest of the world hear is propaganda, i.e how good TPP etc. will be, WRONG! The rest of the world sees the emperor without his clothes, the Americans, in the most part, can't. The world no longer fears the old lion and the young lions are getting ready to pounce, rightly or wrongly. I think within the next few years there will be a relatively short shooting war in the China Seas. I don't believe it will progress further, at least hope so. The US will use it's military might in an basically economic war. China is the greatest threat to the western world's economic interests. With the international banking (banksters)/finance (Wall Street criminals) all connected, they won't relinquish power unless it comes from within and they own the US Congress.

[copa8]

So china's ghost cities and unmanageable air quality is going to lead the way.

One ? What will china do if the US no longer buy's, MADE IN CHINA !!!!!!

What the US will resell if cannot make its goods in China? No average American can afford MADE IN USA anymore.

My camera bags and Leatherman multi-tools are made in the USA.

So is my Stetson.

Yes, camera bags and Stetson are all essential/priority items.