Stronger economic headwinds anticipated

[webfact]

ECONOMY
Stronger economic headwinds anticipated
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Weaker-than-expected domestic spending is highlighted as the key factor that slow the Thai economic recovery, said the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The minute of the March 11 meeting released today explained why MPC reached the decision to cut the policy rate. Unveiled today was the decision to revise the the economic growth forecast for 2015 to 3.8 per cent from 4 per cent.

The forecast for 2016 is maintained at 3.9 per cent.

Last year, the economic growth was only 0.7 per cent due to political uncertainties at home and external economic volatilities.

Meanwhile, headline inflation forecast for 2015 is chopped from 1.2 per cent to 0.2 per cent due mainly to lower oil prices. The forecast of core inflation which excludes energy prices is maintained at 1.2 per cent.

"In light of the economic assessment above, the MPC lowered growth projection for 2015, and assessed that risk to projection leans toward the downside. Downside risk comes from the possibilities of slower-than-expected global economic recovery following developments in Europe and China and lower-than-expected

government disbursement due to limitations in implementing investment projects," the MPC said.

It is of the view that the recovery pace would be slower than expected, as domestic spending tends to be lower than expected.

Major developments contributing to the MPC's forecast revisioninclude (1) the slower-than-expected global economic recovery due to growth moderation in China and Asia, (2) lower-than-expected domestic demand in Q4 2014 and January 2015, (3) more delays to government spending than expected, especially in public investment, and (4) lower-than-expected world oil prices.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Stronger-economic-headwinds-anticipated-30256411.html


-- The Nation 2015-03-20

[trogers]

What is the state of FDI? We had one report that some factories are relocating because labour cost here is too expensive compared to neighbouring countries.

[JoePai]

I like the way they try and sound surprised

[Snig27]

And so the downgrading continues. The economy is in the tank and anyone going through Swampy, which I do at least 10 times a month, can tell you that it's deserted. The tourists just ain't coming.

This country really, rather desperately, needs some decent governance, not just a bunch of lifetime privileged self-importants led by an increasingly arrogant self-anointed "prime minister'.

How a country, with a geographic advantage like Thailand's, a strong industrial base and 25m tourists a year can make such a dogs breakfast of its economy will be studied as textbook example of how not to do it in years to come.

All, just to prevent the masses from having a say in their country.

[h90]

What is the state of FDI? We had one report that some factories are relocating because labour cost here is too expensive compared to neighbouring countries.

buying from China, Thailand and Europe. Europe was always the better quality but very high price. With the low Euro and still the same product quality, I better buy the German product and I am sure many people think like that.

At the same time European tourists come less or at least spend less.

Thanks to the Shinawatras Thailand must save money, so instead of a new street giving people jobs Thailand must pay back the debts of the rice scam.

Other countries catch up on education and language skills (which isn't that difficult) but at lower labour costs.

Every single thing isn't a problem but all together have an impact.

[h90]

And so the downgrading continues. The economy is in the tank and anyone going through Swampy, which I do at least 10 times a month, can tell you that it's deserted. The tourists just ain't coming.

This country really, rather desperately, needs some decent governance, not just a bunch of lifetime privileged self-importants led by an increasingly arrogant self-anointed "prime minister'.

How a country, with a geographic advantage like Thailand's, a strong industrial base and 25m tourists a year can make such a dogs breakfast of its economy will be studied as textbook example of how not to do it in years to come.

All, just to prevent the masses from having a say in their country.

Well looking from year 2000 to now, this is the best government I have seen so far. (Note: I am not saying it is good). So the chance that you get any better government is very low.

[smutcakes]

What is the state of FDI? We had one report that some factories are relocating because labour cost here is too expensive compared to neighbouring countries.

buying from China, Thailand and Europe. Europe was always the better quality but very high price. With the low Euro and still the same product quality, I better buy the German product and I am sure many people think like that.

At the same time European tourists come less or at least spend less.

Thanks to the Shinawatras Thailand must save money, so instead of a new street giving people jobs Thailand must pay back the debts of the rice scam.

Other countries catch up on education and language skills (which isn't that difficult) but at lower labour costs.

Every single thing isn't a problem but all together have an impact.

H90, maybe you can tell us what figures you are using to come up with this comment?

[Srikcir]

"and lower-than-expected government disbursement due to limitations in implementing investment projects,"

The Junta is the only body (albeit it has all the authority!) that can save Thailand's economic downtown due to the prolonged anti-government protests and coup. The ONLY available solution now is for the Junta-government to make massive infrasturure investments in Thailand. Yet throughout 2014 it REFUSED. From January 2015 to date it REFUSED. In fact it now declares it has been successful in distribution of the full budget and no further action is needed!

Despite a failing economic policy of mostly DO NOTHING, the Junta and BOT continue to cheerlead a recovering economy. Wait until the end of 2015Q1, then they will grudgingly lower the GDP growth forecast by 0.5% for 2015Q2. But by then all independent sources will be predicting a much worse slowdown.

The upside is that the quicker the Junta can return the government to the Thai people, ie., elections, the quicker it can then blame the new government for the nation's economic woes.

[h90]

What is the state of FDI? We had one report that some factories are relocating because labour cost here is too expensive compared to neighbouring countries.

buying from China, Thailand and Europe. Europe was always the better quality but very high price. With the low Euro and still the same product quality, I better buy the German product and I am sure many people think like that.

At the same time European tourists come less or at least spend less.

Thanks to the Shinawatras Thailand must save money, so instead of a new street giving people jobs Thailand must pay back the debts of the rice scam.

Other countries catch up on education and language skills (which isn't that difficult) but at lower labour costs.

Every single thing isn't a problem but all together have an impact.

H90, maybe you can tell us what figures you are using to come up with this comment?

All the huge corruption cases, just to name the best known:

The computers

The airports (building Swampy, but also outsourcing everything to Shin owned companies)

The rice scam

That costs billions which are either lost or in the pockets of the Shinawatra clan. If there would have been only the usual corruption of 5-10% there would have been a lot money to build infrastructure projects or lower taxes or invest in education. Instead Thailand must save money to pay back all that lost money.

[Strangebrew]

As Is Thai custom pulling figure out there butt it has been revised from strong headwind to brickwall.

[Prbkk]

A smart time to be contemplating some moves to liberalise : issues to do with foreign ownership, company structures, repatriation of assets, land rights for foreigners, tax breaks, access to credit....plus a hundred other things

[Thian]

The headwinds will become a thunderstorm, believe me.

Start saving money now, in a few years one can buy a house + car for half price of now. This is how economy works, not only in Thailand but worldwide.

You can also start buying shorts on the Thai stockmarkets.

[smutcakes]

What is the state of FDI? We had one report that some factories are relocating because labour cost here is too expensive compared to neighbouring countries.

buying from China, Thailand and Europe. Europe was always the better quality but very high price. With the low Euro and still the same product quality, I better buy the German product and I am sure many people think like that.

At the same time European tourists come less or at least spend less.

Thanks to the Shinawatras Thailand must save money, so instead of a new street giving people jobs Thailand must pay back the debts of the rice scam.

Other countries catch up on education and language skills (which isn't that difficult) but at lower labour costs.

Every single thing isn't a problem but all together have an impact.

H90, maybe you can tell us what figures you are using to come up with this comment?

All the huge corruption cases, just to name the best known:

The computers

The airports (building Swampy, but also outsourcing everything to Shin owned companies)

The rice scam

That costs billions which are either lost or in the pockets of the Shinawatra clan. If there would have been only the usual corruption of 5-10% there would have been a lot money to build infrastructure projects or lower taxes or invest in education. Instead Thailand must save money to pay back all that lost money.

Okay thanks for confirming you are just talking about something you have zero knowledge about.

Again, what figures are you using to suggest Thailand needs to save money?

[elgordo38]

And so the downgrading continues. The economy is in the tank and anyone going through Swampy, which I do at least 10 times a month, can tell you that it's deserted. The tourists just ain't coming.

This country really, rather desperately, needs some decent governance, not just a bunch of lifetime privileged self-importants led by an increasingly arrogant self-anointed "prime minister'.

How a country, with a geographic advantage like Thailand's, a strong industrial base and 25m tourists a year can make such a dogs breakfast of its economy will be studied as textbook example of how not to do it in years to come.

All, just to prevent the masses from having a say in their country.

Last year, the economic growth was only 0.7 per cent due to political uncertainties at home and external economic volatilities. Yeah and the baht still increased in value.

[h90]

buying from China, Thailand and Europe. Europe was always the better quality but very high price. With the low Euro and still the same product quality, I better buy the German product and I am sure many people think like that.

At the same time European tourists come less or at least spend less.

Thanks to the Shinawatras Thailand must save money, so instead of a new street giving people jobs Thailand must pay back the debts of the rice scam.

Other countries catch up on education and language skills (which isn't that difficult) but at lower labour costs.

Every single thing isn't a problem but all together have an impact.

H90, maybe you can tell us what figures you are using to come up with this comment?

All the huge corruption cases, just to name the best known:

The computers

The airports (building Swampy, but also outsourcing everything to Shin owned companies)

The rice scam

That costs billions which are either lost or in the pockets of the Shinawatra clan. If there would have been only the usual corruption of 5-10% there would have been a lot money to build infrastructure projects or lower taxes or invest in education. Instead Thailand must save money to pay back all that lost money.

Okay thanks for confirming you are just talking about something you have zero knowledge about.

Again, what figures are you using to suggest Thailand needs to save money?

So huge corruption has no impact, and low spending has no impact on economic grow, is that what you want to tell?

Or what is your point?

Rice scam is at the moment estimated as a damage of 600-1000 billion Baht.

[h90]

A smart time to be contemplating some moves to liberalise : issues to do with foreign ownership, company structures, repatriation of assets, land rights for foreigners, tax breaks, access to credit....plus a hundred other things

I would be careful with land rights for foreigner. But there is so much to liberalise....Alone the Business Visa and job restrictions is something you can only bang your head against the wall. There is also a lot that could be saved in administration. That money could be used to reduce tax (attracting investors) or education or infrastructure. Even used unwise it is better than as salary for state employes that do unnecessary things.

This government could do things no democratic elected government could ever do (like reducing the provinces from 76 to something like 10), cancel every law that is outdated since 20 years, etc....

[Briggsy]

And so the downgrading continues. The economy is in the tank and anyone going through Swampy, which I do at least 10 times a month, can tell you that it's deserted. The tourists just ain't coming.

This country really, rather desperately, needs some decent governance, not just a bunch of lifetime privileged self-importants led by an increasingly arrogant self-anointed "prime minister'.

How a country, with a geographic advantage like Thailand's, a strong industrial base and 25m tourists a year can make such a dogs breakfast of its economy will be studied as textbook example of how not to do it in years to come.

All, just to prevent the masses from having a say in their country.

Last year, the economic growth was only 0.7 per cent due to political uncertainties at home and external economic volatilities. Yeah and the baht still increased in value.

Without wishing to sidetrack the thread into yet another "the baht is too strong, it is making my pension less" thread, this report actually supports the reasons put forward for the currently (and temporarily) strong baht.

1. Weak domestic spending. This pumps up the current account and imports are reduced. Result : Stronger baht (for now).

2. Cheap oil price. Thailand is a net importer of energy. Result : Stronger baht (for now).

3. Weak growth. Thailand will be forced to address this at some point. One classic lever is to reduce interest rates Result : Weaker baht (next year).

4. Reduction in exports to the EU due to the placing of Thailand in a higher bracket and no longer eligible for tariff reductions. This will hurt Thailand's current accout. Result : Weaker baht (next year).

[h90]

And so the downgrading continues. The economy is in the tank and anyone going through Swampy, which I do at least 10 times a month, can tell you that it's deserted. The tourists just ain't coming.

This country really, rather desperately, needs some decent governance, not just a bunch of lifetime privileged self-importants led by an increasingly arrogant self-anointed "prime minister'.

How a country, with a geographic advantage like Thailand's, a strong industrial base and 25m tourists a year can make such a dogs breakfast of its economy will be studied as textbook example of how not to do it in years to come.

All, just to prevent the masses from having a say in their country.

Last year, the economic growth was only 0.7 per cent due to political uncertainties at home and external economic volatilities. Yeah and the baht still increased in value.

Without wishing to sidetrack the thread into yet another "the baht is too strong, it is making my pension less" thread, this report actually supports the reasons put forward for the currently (and temporarily) strong baht.

1. Weak domestic spending. This pumps up the current account and imports are reduced. Result : Stronger baht (for now).

2. Cheap oil price. Thailand is a net importer of energy. Result : Stronger baht (for now).

3. Weak growth. Thailand will be forced to address this at some point. One classic lever is to reduce interest rates Result : Weaker baht (next year).

4. Reduction in exports to the EU due to the placing of Thailand in a higher bracket and no longer eligible for tariff reductions. This will hurt Thailand's current accout. Result : Weaker baht (next year).

2. I wouldn't be sure if Thailand is a net importer of energy, Thailand produces a lot of oil and gas....From Koh Samui to Malaysia it is just full of oil/gas platforms.

I never understood it, but it seems the oil will be all exported to Singapore and Thailand import oil.

[Briggsy]

And so the downgrading continues. The economy is in the tank and anyone going through Swampy, which I do at least 10 times a month, can tell you that it's deserted. The tourists just ain't coming.

This country really, rather desperately, needs some decent governance, not just a bunch of lifetime privileged self-importants led by an increasingly arrogant self-anointed "prime minister'.

How a country, with a geographic advantage like Thailand's, a strong industrial base and 25m tourists a year can make such a dogs breakfast of its economy will be studied as textbook example of how not to do it in years to come.

All, just to prevent the masses from having a say in their country.

Last year, the economic growth was only 0.7 per cent due to political uncertainties at home and external economic volatilities. Yeah and the baht still increased in value.

Without wishing to sidetrack the thread into yet another "the baht is too strong, it is making my pension less" thread, this report actually supports the reasons put forward for the currently (and temporarily) strong baht.

1. Weak domestic spending. This pumps up the current account and imports are reduced. Result : Stronger baht (for now).

2. Cheap oil price. Thailand is a net importer of energy. Result : Stronger baht (for now).

3. Weak growth. Thailand will be forced to address this at some point. One classic lever is to reduce interest rates Result : Weaker baht (next year).

4. Reduction in exports to the EU due to the placing of Thailand in a higher bracket and no longer eligible for tariff reductions. This will hurt Thailand's current accout. Result : Weaker baht (next year).

2. I wouldn't be sure if Thailand is a net importer of energy, Thailand produces a lot of oil and gas....From Koh Samui to Malaysia it is just full of oil/gas platforms.

I never understood it, but it seems the oil will be all exported to Singapore and Thailand import oil.

Thailand not only imports two-thirds of its oil requirements, even its gas production does not match domestic demand.

http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=th

[Cake Monster]

Weak domestic spending, is hopefully the Banking System in Thailand reducing the amount of lending to the consumers.

90 % of GDP domestic borrowing, is way too high, and with the economy at present in the duldrums, NPL, s will surely increase, causing huge toxic debts on the Banks Accounts.

I am sure that if the banks here were " stress tested ", the amount of toxic debt, NPL,s, and reduced or " restructered building loans " would be a big heads up around the worlds money markets.

[shirtless]

I thought they told us things were going to get better , i guess it was just another white lie, when are they going to tell us the economy now has a tailwind.

[Warpath]

"Stronger economic headwinds anticipated" is a euphemism for "Increased Junta incompetence guaranteed".

[smutcakes]

Okay thanks for confirming you are just talking about something you have zero knowledge about.

Again, what figures are you using to suggest Thailand needs to save money?

So huge corruption has no impact, and low spending has no impact on economic grow, is that what you want to tell?

Or what is your point?

Rice scam is at the moment estimated as a damage of 600-1000 billion Baht.

You said thanks to the Shinawatra clan Thailand has to save.

I am simply asking you to back up your assertions. How are the Shinawatras responsible for low spending?

Thailand Debt to GDP ratio is not high at all. So please back up your claim why Thailand has to save because of the Shinawatras? Or just admit it was an easy comment to make with no sound reasoning.

Economic growth in Thailand over the past 15 years dominated by Shinawatras has been the highest in the countries history. So please comment how they are responsible for low economic growth? or having to save?

[smutcakes]

2. I wouldn't be sure if Thailand is a net importer of energy, Thailand produces a lot of oil and gas....From Koh Samui to Malaysia it is just full of oil/gas platforms.

I never understood it, but it seems the oil will be all exported to Singapore and Thailand import oil.

Thailand not only imports two-thirds of its oil requirements, even its gas production does not match domestic demand.

http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=th

Wow who would of thought it, H90 making comments that he has zero knowledge about again......

[trogers]

Okay thanks for confirming you are just talking about something you have zero knowledge about.

Again, what figures are you using to suggest Thailand needs to save money?

So huge corruption has no impact, and low spending has no impact on economic grow, is that what you want to tell?

Or what is your point?

Rice scam is at the moment estimated as a damage of 600-1000 billion Baht.

You said thanks to the Shinawatra clan Thailand has to save.

I am simply asking you to back up your assertions. How are the Shinawatras responsible for low spending?

Thailand Debt to GDP ratio is not high at all. So please back up your claim why Thailand has to save because of the Shinawatras? Or just admit it was an easy comment to make with no sound reasoning.

Economic growth in Thailand over the past 15 years dominated by Shinawatras has been the highest in the countries history. So please comment how they are responsible for low economic growth? or having to save?

Just two figures need be shown - Household debts and government debts, including those placed off budget. Edited March 22, 2015 by trogers

[smutcakes]

You said thanks to the Shinawatra clan Thailand has to save.

I am simply asking you to back up your assertions. How are the Shinawatras responsible for low spending?

Thailand Debt to GDP ratio is not high at all. So please back up your claim why Thailand has to save because of the Shinawatras? Or just admit it was an easy comment to make with no sound reasoning.

Economic growth in Thailand over the past 15 years dominated by Shinawatras has been the highest in the countries history. So please comment how they are responsible for low economic growth? or having to save?

Just two figures need be shown - Household debts and government debts, including those placed off budget.

This is about Thailand having to save, not personal household debt. Thailands debt to GDP is about 46%, which is relatively low, lower than Malaysia, Singapore, Laos, Vietnam etc.

So i ask again, what information are you using to say that thanks to the Shinawatras, Thailand has to save?

[Thai at Heart]

Where did the forecast for last year start, and end up at 0.7%? About 3.5% wasn't it?

[Thai at Heart]

buying from China, Thailand and Europe. Europe was always the better quality but very high price. With the low Euro and still the same product quality, I better buy the German product and I am sure many people think like that.

At the same time European tourists come less or at least spend less.

Thanks to the Shinawatras Thailand must save money, so instead of a new street giving people jobs Thailand must pay back the debts of the rice scam.

Other countries catch up on education and language skills (which isn't that difficult) but at lower labour costs.

Every single thing isn't a problem but all together have an impact.

H90, maybe you can tell us what figures you are using to come up with this comment?

All the huge corruption cases, just to name the best known:

The computers

The airports (building Swampy, but also outsourcing everything to Shin owned companies)

The rice scam

That costs billions which are either lost or in the pockets of the Shinawatra clan. If there would have been only the usual corruption of 5-10% there would have been a lot money to build infrastructure projects or lower taxes or invest in education. Instead Thailand must save money to pay back all that lost money.

Okay thanks for confirming you are just talking about something you have zero knowledge about.

Again, what figures are you using to suggest Thailand needs to save money?

So huge corruption has no impact, and low spending has no impact on economic grow, is that what you want to tell?

Or what is your point?

Rice scam is at the moment estimated as a damage of 600-1000 billion Baht.

Which all went into the economy already. Without it, churning around in the countryside, the previous GDP growth would have been even worse......

[trogers]

You said thanks to the Shinawatra clan Thailand has to save.

I am simply asking you to back up your assertions. How are the Shinawatras responsible for low spending?

Thailand Debt to GDP ratio is not high at all. So please back up your claim why Thailand has to save because of the Shinawatras? Or just admit it was an easy comment to make with no sound reasoning.

Economic growth in Thailand over the past 15 years dominated by Shinawatras has been the highest in the countries history. So please comment how they are responsible for low economic growth? or having to save?

Just two figures need be shown - Household debts and government debts, including those placed off budget.

This is about Thailand having to save, not personal household debt. Thailands debt to GDP is about 46%, which is relatively low, lower than Malaysia, Singapore, Laos, Vietnam etc.

So i ask again, what information are you using to say that thanks to the Shinawatras, Thailand has to save?

High household debts have no bearing on economic headwinds?

[smutcakes]

You said thanks to the Shinawatra clan Thailand has to save.

I am simply asking you to back up your assertions. How are the Shinawatras responsible for low spending?

Thailand Debt to GDP ratio is not high at all. So please back up your claim why Thailand has to save because of the Shinawatras? Or just admit it was an easy comment to make with no sound reasoning.

Economic growth in Thailand over the past 15 years dominated by Shinawatras has been the highest in the countries history. So please comment how they are responsible for low economic growth? or having to save?

Just two figures need be shown - Household debts and government debts, including those placed off budget.

This is about Thailand having to save, not personal household debt. Thailands debt to GDP is about 46%, which is relatively low, lower than Malaysia, Singapore, Laos, Vietnam etc.

So i ask again, what information are you using to say that thanks to the Shinawatras, Thailand has to save?

High household debts have no bearing on economic headwinds?

That is nothing to do with what i am saying, which you well know.

H90 said that Thailand has to save thanks to the Shinawatras. Which is blatantly a completely untrue statement which i pulled him up on. He has so far produced nothing which backs up his claim, so he may as well just admit he is speaking complete rubbish.

It makes it all the more a crazy statement given the current Govt's spending plans, which quite clearly show they are trying to disburse more money, not save it.