New project Layan Beach

[phuketandsee]

As you should all know, great caution is required now. And we will see who is wrong

Yet more mysterious, non-specific clap-trap.

Try to be specific (if you can).

Which two words do you think tourists understand more?

Martial Law.

Article 44.

Those of us that have been here awhile know that what happens in Bangkok rarely affects anything down here. It hasn't in the past and I see no difference with Article 44.

As I said before......another Chicken Little.

You seriously think Phuket real estate values are unaffected by national and global events? Talk about clap-trap

[stuarty]

er, New project Layan Beach, folks?

[KarenBravo]

As you should all know, great caution is required now. And we will see who is wrong

Yet more mysterious, non-specific clap-trap.

Try to be specific (if you can).

Which two words do you think tourists understand more?

Martial Law.

Article 44.

Those of us that have been here awhile know that what happens in Bangkok rarely affects anything down here. It hasn't in the past and I see no difference with Article 44.

As I said before......another Chicken Little.

You seriously think Phuket real estate values are unaffected by national and global events? Talk about clap-trap

Not in Phuket.

If you know so much, name one year when prices of new projects went down. Or, even a slowing of building new projects.

Still awaiting you to come up with specifics.

Edited April 6, 2015 by KarenBravo

[schlog]

Like i wrote before 1997-1998. In 1998 i did some of the best deals in my life.

Risks are in HKT and in Thailand like the coming of a civil war after a special event.

But i think the incident will come from outside and will have a big effect on the tiger states like Thailand. When the western big money is leaving Thailand then again times come to top up land, houses and valuables. Now cash is king.

Edited April 6, 2015 by schlog

[phuketandsee]

"Still awaiting you to come up with specifics".

The moderators have advised extreme caution in commenting on the current situation. I am choosing to follow that advice.

As to being here a long time, were you here when Sarit was in power? A review of that period might be helpful

[NamKangMan]

As you should all know, great caution is required now. And we will see who is wrong

Yet more mysterious, non-specific clap-trap.

Try to be specific (if you can).

Which two words do you think tourists understand more?

Martial Law.

Article 44.

Those of us that have been here awhile know that what happens in Bangkok rarely affects anything down here. It hasn't in the past and I see no difference with Article 44.

As I said before......another Chicken Little.

You seriously think Phuket real estate values are unaffected by national and global events? Talk about clap-trap

Not in Phuket.

If you know so much, name one year when prices of new projects went down. Or, even a slowing of building new projects.

Still awaiting you to come up with specifics.

Steady on KB.

Are you seriously suggesting that the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, and more recently, the sanctions placed upon Russia, due to their military action in Ukraine, that has seen the Russian Ruble drop 45% of its value, has has no effect, whatsoever, on the property market here????

Surely you have seen the effect both of these "global events" have had on the tourism industry on Phuket?

Isn't tourism Phuket property's best advertisement? Less tourists, less people to advertise and market Phuket property to. Thus, less people in the market, and these means less demand, which means less sales, and a downward pressure on property prices.

When the GFC hit, how many westerners were contemplating retirement on Phuket, only to see their retirement "nest egg" take a hit? Many of whom couldn't even retire in their own country, and are probably still working.

Now, the Ruble has dropped 45% and domestic prices are rising in Russia for goods. Many Russians can't afford a holiday here now, let alone, buying a property here, and that also goes for many of the Russian mid level criminals. Basically, take their money offshore, and they have lost half of it.

These are two "specific" global events for you?

You say it's the Thai's that buy most of these "boxes." The "51% Thai Condo ownership" law aside, if that's the case, what do they do with them? Phuket does not have enough job opportunities for them all to move here, so, they must rent them out as apartments, for short or long term.

Would that not put downward pressure on rents on Phuket? Isn't renting also part of the property market? Rents go down, or remain the same, year after year, does that not have an effect on people weighing up the rent v buy cost analysis? Whether that's buying for investment, or as their dwelling.

"name one year when prices of new projects went down" - what has the listing price got to do with the selling price, if in fact, they sell at all?

Any agent, developer or owner can put a ridiculous listing price on a property - it means nothing, unless and/or until, it sells. That is the only price that matters.

In my opinion, Phuket currently has an oversupply of property on the market, yet they are still building more, and now, Phuket has a lower demand for property, mainly due to westerners chosing other locations in preference to Phuket, and the changing demographic of tourist coming to Phuket.

Edited April 6, 2015 by NamKangMan

[LivinginKata]

<snip>

In my opinion, Phuket currently has an oversupply of property on the market, yet they are still building more, and now, Phuket has a lower demand for property, mainly due to westerners chosing other locations in preference to Phuket, and the changing demographic of tourist coming to Phuket.

I am going to agree with NKM. Lower demand, but the bigger issue is over building. One only has to look at what happened in Spain 10 - 20+ years ago.

[stevenl]

This has been done to death already, no point in another discussion about this.

I was just curious to phuketandsea reasoning why it is different now from the past, but his only answer is 'government, can't say anything more st request of Thai Visa. So not a very elaborate or constructive reasoning unfortunately.

[schlog]

<snip>

In my opinion, Phuket currently has an oversupply of property on the market, yet they are still building more, and now, Phuket has a lower demand for property, mainly due to westerners chosing other locations in preference to Phuket, and the changing demographic of tourist coming to Phuket.

I am going to agree with NKM. Lower demand, but the bigger issue is over building. One only has to look at what happened in Spain 10 - 20+ years ago.

In the short term this is a good comparison. In the long term (10-20 years) i'm optimistic for Phuket. They will rebound like each time also if they have to play the casino card.

Invest in Phuket in the long run is a good investment but right now is not the best time to buy. Better buyer times will come.

[NamKangMan]

<snip>

In my opinion, Phuket currently has an oversupply of property on the market, yet they are still building more, and now, Phuket has a lower demand for property, mainly due to westerners chosing other locations in preference to Phuket, and the changing demographic of tourist coming to Phuket.

I am going to agree with NKM. Lower demand, but the bigger issue is over building. One only has to look at what happened in Spain 10 - 20+ years ago.

In the short term this is a good comparison. In the long term (10-20 years) i'm optimistic for Phuket. They will rebound like each time also if they have to play the casino card.

Invest in Phuket in the long run is a good investment but right now is not the best time to buy. Better buyer times will come.

Given Phuket continues in the direction it has, over the last few years, what do you think will allure the western market back to Phuket, over the longer term?

[NamKangMan]

This has been done to death already, no point in another discussion about this.

I was just curious to phuketandsea reasoning why it is different now from the past, but his only answer is 'government, can't say anything more st request of Thai Visa. So not a very elaborate or constructive reasoning unfortunately.

I have not read "Article 44" so I do not know just how far it can go, and what effect it may have on foreigners, but it has been invoked, which drew criticism from the west.

Whether that criticism eventually turns into sanctions etc - who knows?

Interesting times ahead for Thailand.

[phuketandsee]

And let's not forget the upcoming once in a lifetime event. I doubt many of you have been here since 1946

[KarenBravo]

And yet, no one can give me a year when prices of land and property went down.

[KarenBravo]

Prices of land and property did not go down in Phuket between 1997 and 1998 in Baht terms.

The exchange rate didn't help the vast majority of purchasers, who are Thai.

[schlog]

So your expierence is different then mine. Only one example, condo office in Patong in DEZ 1996 price was 1 Mio. and I bought this in FEB 1998 for 0.55 Mio.

In 1997-1998 real land deals were possible for exeptional prices here on HKT. But i only did deals in Patong/Phuket Town and Thalang so maybe Chalong/Rawai was different.

The most reduced deals were in BKK like buying watches/pearls/condos with 80% discounts. Wife still happy about here pearl necklace auctioned in 1998.

[KarenBravo]

So your expierence is different then mine. Only one example, condo office in Patong in DEZ 1996 price was 1 Mio. and I bought this in FEB 1998 for 0.55 Mio.

In 1997-1998 real land deals were possible for exeptional prices here on HKT. But i only did deals in Patong/Phuket Town and Thalang so maybe Chalong/Rawai was different.

The most reduced deals were in BKK like buying watches/pearls/condos with 80% discounts. Wife still happy about here pearl necklace auctioned in 1998.

OK, I'll accept your premise.

This crisis was to Thailand as Greece is today. Borrowing in a foreign currency that had a lower interest rate than the local currency. Far out of whack with local inflation etc.

Currency traders decided that the Baht had no clothes and it crashed.

Yet, land and property prices certainly did not go down due to the 2008 crisis. They slowed, but never stopped going up.

[phuketandsee]

Do you seriously think that past performance is any indication of what is likely in the coming months? You really don't think Thailand is facing unprecedented changes and challenges this time?

And KB, you really believe real estate values anywhere in the world can keep going up for ever? You must be immensely wealthy if you have traded on that.

As I said, time will tell and I doubt we will have to wait that long

[hansgruber]

Are we talking about land or condominiums? Both are completely different.

Land doesn't drop in price because you can't oversupply it. It's limited. Condos on the other hand can be oversupplied and saturate the market that can lead to a crash like the 90's.

[NamKangMan]

Are we talking about land or condominiums? Both are completely different.

Land doesn't drop in price because you can't oversupply it. It's limited. Condos on the other hand can be oversupplied and saturate the market that can lead to a crash like the 90's.

My posts are based on improved land.

[steelepulse]

Interesting article in the gazette written by a company person in the business. Still the logic seems fundamentally sound, although it is based on people's pie in the sky asking price vs actual sales numbers. http://phuketgazette.net/phuket-property/Phukets-resale-market-shows-value/56786#ad-image-0

good luck to the Layan condo OP was originally about, they're going to need it in the oversaturated condo market.

Edited April 7, 2015 by steelepulse

[keestha]

Don' forget 1997.....

Exactly, the Tom Yam Crisis. Banks had too many bad loans, because people borrowed money for construction projects, and later defaulted on the loans because they couldn't find buyers/tenants.

[KarenBravo]

Don' forget 1997.....

Exactly, the Tom Yam Crisis. Banks had too many bad loans, because people borrowed money for construction projects, and later defaulted on the loans because they couldn't find buyers/tenants.

Not exactly. Too many loans denominated in US dollars.

[AJBangkok]

Yeah it's all well good to be arguing over the world imploding, but meanwhile my view Is going to be wrecked by 190 new shoebox condos at Layan Beach.

The bright side is that it may motivate me to get out there and buy another place with a better view.

[stuarty]

Yeah it's all well good to be arguing over the world imploding, but meanwhile my view Is going to be wrecked by 190 new shoebox condos at Layan Beach.

The bright side is that it may motivate me to get out there and buy another place with a better view.

Just one slight problem - selling your old one first (the one with the about to be ruined view)

[SeanPhuket]

Yeah it's all well good to be arguing over the world imploding, but meanwhile my view Is going to be wrecked by 190 new shoebox condos at Layan Beach.

The bright side is that it may motivate me to get out there and buy another place with a better view.

Just one slight problem - selling your old one first (the one with the about to be ruined view)

Rent it out and get a return better than any bank!

[NamKangMan]

Yeah it's all well good to be arguing over the world imploding, but meanwhile my view Is going to be wrecked by 190 new shoebox condos at Layan Beach.

The bright side is that it may motivate me to get out there and buy another place with a better view.

Just one slight problem - selling your old one first (the one with the about to be ruined view)

Rent it out and get a return better than any bank!

So, eventually, he will have two properties here he can not sell.

[hansgruber]

Yeah it's all well good to be arguing over the world imploding, but meanwhile my view Is going to be wrecked by 190 new shoebox condos at Layan Beach.

The bright side is that it may motivate me to get out there and buy another place with a better view.

Just one slight problem - selling your old one first (the one with the about to be ruined view)

Rent it out and get a return better than any bank!

So, eventually, he will have two properties here he can not sell.

That brings you great pleasure I'm sure Mr Renter.

[NamKangMan]

@ hansgruber

My rent hasn't changed in over 2 years.

Actually, I should peruse the rental market, once again. Perhaps I can now rent more, for less.

Anyway, whilst they keep building and building, good times ahead for renters.

[hansgruber]

@ hansgruber

My rent hasn't changed in over 2 years.

Actually, I should peruse the rental market, once again. Perhaps I can now rent more, for less.

Anyway, whilst they keep building and building, good times ahead for renters.

I just find it sad that you seem to take great pleasure in the fact that someone might be unable to move their properties so you can bang on with your rental is better agenda.

Not everyone wants to live out of a suitcase with no roots settled to call home.

[NamKangMan]

@ hansgruber

My rent hasn't changed in over 2 years.

Actually, I should peruse the rental market, once again. Perhaps I can now rent more, for less.

Anyway, whilst they keep building and building, good times ahead for renters.

I just find it sad that you seem to take great pleasure in the fact that someone might be unable to move their properties so you can bang on with your rental is better agenda.

Not everyone wants to live out of a suitcase with no roots settled to call home.

I do not "take great pleasure" in seeing anyone lose any money here, whether that be from sending money for a sick buffalo in Issan, or losing a considerable amount of money in a failed off the plan property development. Both cases, and everything in between, are tragic, incuding this one.

The rent v buy case has been debated on TV on many occassions. Many times my posts have been subject to ridicule, when I have mentioned the possibility of the OP's scenario happening, due to the lack of town planning laws here, yet, here is another case in which it has happened. Buy at your own peril here.

Of course, you have seized the opportunity to personally attack me, yet again - that's fine.

I admit, I haven't got anything here that I couldn't walk away from tomorrow. A motorbike, electrical equipment, clothing etc etc - I could walk away from all of it, and Thailand, tomorrow, and I suffer no great loss, yet, I do call my place home, as you do.

My "roots" are in my past, both family, and financial, and not in Thailand.

I am happily enjoying being single, and I would never "invest" anything in this third world country. Tell me, why would I?

Each to their own.

Edited April 12, 2015 by NamKangMan