Bangkok Poll says most economists predict 3 percent growth rate for the whole year

[Lite Beer]

Bangkok Poll says most economists predict 3 percent growth rate for the whole year

BANGKOK: -- Most economists believe that Thailand’s economic growth rate for this year will not exceed 3 percent against the Finance Ministry’s projection of 3.9 percent, according to Bangkok Poll.

The poll shows that only 1.6 percent of the economists believe the growth rate may reach 4.5 percent while 9.5 percent say the rate should be only 1.6.

The research centre of Bangkok University and the Faculty of Economics conduct opinions from 63 economists from 25 leading institutions about the trend of the GDP and the direction of interest during April 1-21.

The poll shows: 76.2 percent of the respondents believe the GDP will be just 3 percent; 9.5 percent believe the growth rate should be 3.9; 1.6 percent believe the rate should be 4.5 percent and 11.1 percent don’t have an opinion.

Regarding the policy rate, 61.9 percent agree with the 1.75 percent rate set by the Fiscal Policy Committee; 22.2 percent suggest that the rate should be further cut; 15.9 percent want the rate to be kept at 1.5 percent; 6.3 percent suggest the rate to be reduced to 1.25 percent.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/bangkok-poll-says-most-economists-predict-3-percent-growth-rate-for-the-whole-year

-- Thai PBS 2015-04-26

[lostoday]

What economists? Where are they from? What are their qualifications? No one called me up. So I assume they did not query the Thai Visa economists. Did they call Naam?

[dcutman]

BANGKOK: Thailand’s economy likely contracted in the first quarter from the previous three months but looks set to return to growth in April-June, a central bank official said on Tuesday.

“There is a high chance that on-quarter GDP will be negative given the data we have tracked,” Don Nakornthab, director of the Bank of Thailand’s Macroeconomic Policy Office, told reporters. http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/04/21/Thai-Q1-economy-likely-contracted-quarter-on-quarter/?style=biz

At the speed these guys are lowering the economic outlook, I would be inclined to bet on a recession.

[carstenp]

Here is a update. Seems like the bad figures for Thailand is keep coming

* Sees GDP growth in Q2 q/q, exports to improve

* Govt says Q1 GDP growth likely about 3 pct y/y

* 2015 GDP growth seen at 3.8 pct, but may be missed - c.bank

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102604466

[elgordo38]

What economists? Where are they from? What are their qualifications? No one called me up. So I assume they did not query the Thai Visa economists. Did they call Naam?

I predict 2%. If the 3 percenters are wrong they should take their economist license away and also their crystal balls and give em 50 lashes with a wet noodle in a public display of shame.

[lostoday]

What economists? Where are they from? What are their qualifications? No one called me up. So I assume they did not query the Thai Visa economists. Did they call Naam?

I predict 2%. If the 3 percenters are wrong they should take their economist license away and also their crystal balls and give em 50 lashes with a wet noodle in a public display of shame.

2% IMF numbers. You should say whose numbers you trust. Thailand, IMF, or who.

[NeverSure]

Thailand's Teflon Economy Is Imploding

"But the era in which Thailand’s economy could withstand any political turbulence, and would continue to attract tourists and foreign investors, appears to be over. Fifteen years of political chaos has distracted Thai policymakers from making important investments in infrastructure or the country’s education system..."

"Japanese investors, the biggest group of foreign investors in the kingdom, have begun to shift new investments to Vietnam and other countries in the region. Other foreign investors have become increasingly cautious in approving new Thailand projects."

"A recent Bloomberg analysis of the growth rates of major Southeast Asian economies showed that, since 2010, Thailand’s GDP growth rate has been about half that of neighboring Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. And in 2015, the World Bank projects that Thailand’s growth rate will again be the lowest in the region."

Link

[soalbundy]

How many dead bodies were dug up to get these numbers

[Benmart]

I prefer to wait and see.

[Suffinator]

They'll be lucky to achieve 2% at the rate they are going. The baht is far too strong to boost exports and if the EU bans fishery products it will have a significant impact; even more so if the US retains T3 and it too then imposes import bans.

[IMA_FARANG]

In the first place if you show rate of increase such as "growth rate" in percentages you need to state where you specify where you measure the "growth rate" from.

Just as an example , if I have 10 items and then I get 5 more that is a "growth rate" of 50 percent.

Whereas, if I have 100 items, and I get the same 5 more items added to that total then that is only a "growth rate" of 20 percent.

Actually you "gained" the same amount in both cases ..... it is only a mathematical trick that makes the first case seem to be a 50% gain and more of a "gain" that the 2nd case.

In each case the amount of "gain" is exactly the same ....5 units...it's only the mathematics that seems to make a supposed 50% gain appear to be more than the 20% "gain".

The difference is that in case #1 the "gain" was measured from a lower base starting point so the figures are skewed at the very beginning, and can't be properly compared against each other.

[Eric Loh]

Not hard to see that Thailand will struggle and 3% growth rate will really be a bonus. Export which is 70% GDP has structural issues and unlikely to be resolve this year. Domestic economy remain sluggish with little stimulus package from the government and consumers burdened with high household debt and political uncertainty. Only tourism is the bright spot but is tiny portion of GDP.

[Pib]

Do not believe any of these economists....wait until the new economics department being established within the Tourism Authority of Thailand publish their estimate...I'm sure it will be around 10% projected growth.

[lostoday]

Thailand's Teflon Economy Is Imploding

"But the era in which Thailand’s economy could withstand any political turbulence, and would continue to attract tourists and foreign investors, appears to be over. Fifteen years of political chaos has distracted Thai policymakers from making important investments in infrastructure or the country’s education system..."

"Japanese investors, the biggest group of foreign investors in the kingdom, have begun to shift new investments to Vietnam and other countries in the region. Other foreign investors have become increasingly cautious in approving new Thailand projects."

"A recent Bloomberg analysis of the growth rates of major Southeast Asian economies showed that, since 2010, Thailand’s GDP growth rate has been about half that of neighboring Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. And in 2015, the World Bank projects that Thailand’s growth rate will again be the lowest in the region."

Link

Great for people on fixed incomes.

[Nobb]

What are these economists trying to sell to the people. Many world governments in financial crisis. Less tourists, less exports and the price of oil on the rise. Beware Thailand!

[Srikcir]

On 2015-03-04 the Joint Private Standing Committee - comprising the Board of Trade of Thailand, the Federation of Thai Industries, and the Thai Bankers Association revised down its export-growth forecast from 3.5 per cent to just 2 per cent-2.5 per cent.

Is it any surprise that the GDP growth rate for 2015 will not exceed 3% when exports contribute 70% of the GDP?

More likely the GDP growth rate for 2015 will be 2.4%-3%.

The only surprise would be for the Junta to publically recognize the collapse of Thai economy during the anti-gpvernment protests, during the coup, during its post-coup guidance, and its inability to manage it. But that might deflect the Junta’s goal for Thailand to become the economic hub of the ASEAN community and have the ASEAN HQ located in Bangkok.

[lostoday]

What are these economists trying to sell to the people. Many world governments in financial crisis. Less tourists, less exports and the price of oil on the rise. Beware Thailand!

I wouldn't quit your day job for an economist before you check the five year chart for oil.