Ebola deaths pass 11,000 mark: WHO

[webfact]

Ebola deaths pass 11,000 mark: WHO

GENEVA (AFP) - The number of deaths from the Ebola epidemic now exceeds 11,000, figures from the World Health Organization showed on Wednesday.

In the three countries worst affected -- Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea -- 26,593 people were infected, and 11,005 had died, the WHO said.

The worst ever outbreak of Ebola began in southern Guinea in December 2013 before spreading to Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Liberia has recorded the most deaths with 4,716, while 3,903 have died in Sierra Leone and 2,386 have died in Guinea.

Although the number of cases has topped 11,000, the WHO is due to declare on May 9 that the epidemic is over in Liberia, unless there are any new cases in the country before then.

The number of new infections are also dwindling in Guinea and Sierra Leone. Only nine new cases were recorded in each country last week, the lowest figures for almost a year.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Ebola-deaths-pass-11000-mark-WHO-30259494.html


-- The Nation 2015-05-07

[Kerryd]

I guess their scare tactics worked, as last September the WHO and the CDC were both predicting that there would be between 550,000 (reported) - 1,400,000 (including unreported) Ebola cases by the end of January 2015, in just 2 countries (Liberia and Sierra Leone).

http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/09/23/350937467/dire-predictions-on-ebolas-spread-from-top-health-organizations

("But the CDC's worst-case scenario is a jaw-dropper: If interventions don't start working soon, as many as 1.4 million people could be infected by Jan. 20, the agency reported in its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.")

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?s_cid=su6303a1_w

("Extrapolating trends to January 20, 2015, without additional interventions or changes in community behavior (e.g., notable reductions in unsafe burial practices), the model also estimates that Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 550,000 Ebola cases (1.4 million when corrected for under-reporting)" )

I found it interesting though, that in August the WHO apparently had a completely different outlook on things. ("The WHO, in an initial roadmap issued on Aug 28, predicted that the virus could strike 20,000 people within the next nine months.)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/23/us-health-ebola-study-idUSKCN0HI06220140923

So in late August they predicted 20,000 would be infected over the next 9 months (end May 2015) and then a month later predicted from 550-000 to 1.4 million would be infected in the next 4 months (to end Jan 2015) if intervention wasn't stepped up.