Happy Grumpy Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 (edited) I'll be making a (semi) sizable transfer from Euro to Baht at some point over the next year. This isn't the most beautiful picture. I'd be much happier back around the 42 mark. I think if it hits 42, I'd hold until it starts to drop, then do it then. What do people forecast over the next 12 months? Edited May 20, 2015 by Happy Grumpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss1960 Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 As you, I have to decide in September about 6-figure CHF transfers to my accounts in Thailand. My personal forecast is the same as it was an year ago... exchange rate will either go up, stay the same or go down... and... for each of the three options, there are arguments (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats), but without reading the tea leaves, I could not forecast which of the arguments will come true.. including the ONE threat about which we are not allowed to talk in Thailand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green job Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 I would be very careful,,I took advice last July and bought forward. My guy recons,as the EU crisis develops it could quite easely hit the 30THB to th Euro. I bought some UK Stirling last year ( good advice) The EU now have trouble with France,and even Germany have fiddled the books The Euro is bound to fold sometime He gives it 5 years max If you are talking about say over 40k Euro get some advice Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert24 Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 hard to really predict but based on experience from QE in the US and Japan, the Euro will weaken further as long as they will print money and keep interest rates at zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverSure Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 This is where diversifying might have helped you and might in the future. The old all eggs in one basket thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fvw53 Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 the person who can reply such question with certitude must be a very lucky speculator .... not everybody is Soros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suradit69 Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 (edited) As you, I have to decide in September about 6-figure CHF transfers to my accounts in Thailand. My personal forecast is the same as it was an year ago... exchange rate will either go up, stay the same or go down... and... for each of the three options, there are arguments (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats), but without reading the tea leaves, I could not forecast which of the arguments will come true.. including the ONE threat about which we are not allowed to talk in Thailand... "exchange rate will either go up, stay the same or go down..." Yes, as J.P. Morgan replied when asked what the markets would do ... "They will fluctuate." And as an aid to making predictions ... Edited May 20, 2015 by Suradit69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asiamaster Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 If you are talking about say over 40k Euro get some advice Good luck Some advice from who? Nobody seems to know. We are in uncharted territory now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijit Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Imo Euro has to much muscle now for it weaken anymore. However sterling is strong atm and imo still has away to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezzra Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Buy a crystal ball, it's predictions will be as good as any ' know it all financiers ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catweazle Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 (edited) My predicition is that the EU will collapse and dissolve at some given point and that civil war in certain parts of it will break out due to mass immigration, religious conflict, unemployment, skyrocketing taxes, sharp increase in food and beverage prices, rents and general cost of living, the problems in Greece, Italy, France, etc... and spineless politicians in Germany, Sweden and Austria. Your money kept in a european account will either wither away or be impounded when banks go bankrupt, or during a currency reform, where all accounts are switched back to zero. The longer you keep your money there, the greater the risk. What I would do is to wait until the Baht equals 39/40 what could be in a few weeks or months from now and then exchange it, before it punges to unexpected lows. The market has been flooded with cheap money for too long. Hyperinflation and other horrors are waiting right at the doorstep! If you wait longer, the Euro might be gone already since this Euro experiment most likely will be coming to a quick and very painful end and then you will lose at least 50% of its value if not all! Edited May 21, 2015 by catweazle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayceenik Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I have a Euro bank account in Singapore. A few years back, when the Grexit financial farce first flared out seriously, I told my bank to immediately set my account to whatever new and improved Euro that would include the DM if the present Euro would disappear. Those with Euro accounts in EU banks will have to accept whatever is decided for them by the ECB and their local banks .... I also am now waiting for the THB to go down to the Euro as I need to make a top-up transfer to my 800k immigration visa account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soalbundy Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 My predicition is that the EU will collapse and dissolve at some given point and that civil war in certain parts of it will break out due to mass immigration, religious conflict, unemployment, skyrocketing taxes, sharp increase in food and beverage prices, rents and general cost of living, the problems in Greece, Italy, France, etc... and spineless politicians in Germany, Sweden and Austria. Your money kept in a european account will either wither away or be impounded when banks go bankrupt, or during a currency reform, where all accounts are switched back to zero. The longer you keep your money there, the greater the risk. What I would do is to wait until the Baht equals 39/40 what could be in a few weeks or months from now and then exchange it, before it punges to unexpected lows. The market has been flooded with cheap money for too long. Hyperinflation and other horrors are waiting right at the doorstep! If you wait longer, the Euro might be gone already since this Euro experiment most likely will be coming to a quick and very painful end and then you will lose at least 50% of its value if not all! I bet you are great fun at parties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss1960 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I have a Euro bank account in Singapore. A few years back, when the Grexit financial farce first flared out seriously, I told my bank to immediately set my account to whatever new and improved Euro that would include the DM if the present Euro would disappear. Those with Euro accounts in EU banks will have to accept whatever is decided for them by the ECB and their local banks .... I also am now waiting for the THB to go down to the Euro as I need to make a top-up transfer to my 800k immigration visa account. ???? care to elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss1960 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 My predicition is that the EU will collapse and dissolve at some given point and that civil war in certain parts of it will break out due to mass immigration, religious conflict, unemployment, skyrocketing taxes, sharp increase in food and beverage prices, rents and general cost of living, the problems in Greece, Italy, France, etc... and spineless politicians in Germany, Sweden and Austria. Your money kept in a european account will either wither away or be impounded when banks go bankrupt, or during a currency reform, where all accounts are switched back to zero. The longer you keep your money there, the greater the risk. What I would do is to wait until the Baht equals 39/40 what could be in a few weeks or months from now and then exchange it, before it punges to unexpected lows. The market has been flooded with cheap money for too long. Hyperinflation and other horrors are waiting right at the doorstep! If you wait longer, the Euro might be gone already since this Euro experiment most likely will be coming to a quick and very painful end and then you will lose at least 50% of its value if not all! I bet you are great fun at parties. His name is Nostradamus XV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thurien Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 @happygrumpies: "I'll be making a (semi) sizable transfer from Euro to Baht at some point over the next year" best thing ask your Thai wife what to do when with that money, they know for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I have a Euro bank account in Singapore. A few years back, when the Grexit financial farce first flared out seriously, I told my bank to immediately set my account to whatever new and improved Euro that would include the DM if the present Euro would disappear. Those with Euro accounts in EU banks will have to accept whatever is decided for them by the ECB and their local banks .... I also am now waiting for the THB to go down to the Euro as I need to make a top-up transfer to my 800k immigration visa account. ???? care to elaborate? how can one elaborate with all those empty Chang bottles around? today, dear children, we learn about Euro bank accounts in Singapore which can be set to whatever new and approved EURo appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griffo63 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I've no idea what will happen in common with most posters here. I brought a large amount of £ in this year but not all in one go. I bought every couple of weeks for about 20 weeks bringing in about 10% each time. Averaging it in way helped me to ride the highs and lows of the exchange rate. So I didn't buy at the highest rate possible during time nor did I buy at the lowest. Very pleased overall with the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green job Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 If you are talking about say over 40k Euro get some advice Good luck Some advice from who? Nobody seems to know. We are in uncharted territory now... Well yes,and no. The EU as we know it will fail. The Euro is 100% on its way out,as they have been printing currency for a while now. Money and currency is not the same thing ,this we all know. Germany have made a big boob in falsifying accounts. They are desperate to get their hands on the UK WW assets,but this will not happen. The whole of unelected EU parliment has been rumbled. So the odds are a large fall in the Euros value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henryford Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Wait till Greece (and the UK) leaves the EUSSR. You will be lucky to get 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green job Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Wait till Greece (and the UK) leaves the EUSSR. You will be lucky to get 30. Well The UK do not have the Euro, Not like poor old Greece trapped in a economic prison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaurene Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I had 26,800 Euro to change, I waited checking each day last Saturday I checked with Super Rich and they where giving 37.9 I decided to take this, Monday it was 37.7 Wednesday it was 37 so I made the correct decision. The experts do not know, if they sort the Greece problem out the Euro will strengthen but in the skeleton EC box you have the problems with Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland also the Russian problem, Europe has stopped a lot of exports to Russia this has effected the Euro trade in lose of big exports to Russia. I cannot see the Euro going to 42 for. Very long time there is more of a chance for it weakening more. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Well yes,and no. The EU as we know it will fail. The Euro is 100% on its way out,as they have been printing currency for a while now. Money and currency is not the same thing ,this we all know. Germany have made a big boob in falsifying accounts. They are desperate to get their hands on the UK WW assets,but this will not happen. The whole of unelected EU parliment has been rumbled. So the odds are a large fall in the Euros value thank you for your eggsburt insights kind Sir! congratulations for being soon a billionaire because surely you have put your money where your mouth is and shorted the €UR with huge leverage. being an ignorant but always eager to learn, you are kindly asked which instruments you are using to profit from the EURo's "way out". big thanks in advance! thanks also for the revelation that the Germans are desperately trying to get their hands on UK assets. but what exactly are WW assets? wild widows? wicket witches? world war remnants? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLang Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 What I would do is to wait until the Baht equals 39/40 what could be in a few weeks or months from now and then exchange it Good thread direction. OP says he will do it if hits 42 and then starts to drop. Catweazle says 39/40 then do it. I'll go, wait for for 41.5 then as soon as it starts to drop after that, hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaurene Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Just checked with Super Rich exchange in KHon Kaen from last Saturday morning 37.90 this morning it is 36.85 I think you will have to expect the Euro will stay weak for a number of years. I changed 26,810 Euro last Saturday morning, good for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkyCowboy Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 the person who can reply such question with certitude must be a very lucky speculator .... not everybody is Soros Not everybody can be a jewish prick like Sorros you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveG Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 There was an announcement recently from the central Thai Bank would not continue to support the Bhat this resulted in a 4% swing in THB/GBP. Not sure about swing against the Euro which is currently weak against all major currencies but has made some recent gains. A lot of smart people cannot predict Ex rates correctly - far be it for laymen to do so. IMHO Its all a gamble!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony5 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I'll tell you what will happen to the Euro/Baht exchange rate. Next month on the 14th................ Naaah, I'm not gonna tell you because you will all hedge against me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naywak Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 My predicition is that the EU will collapse and dissolve at some given point and that civil war in certain parts of it will break out due to mass immigration, religious conflict, unemployment, skyrocketing taxes, sharp increase in food and beverage prices, rents and general cost of living, the problems in Greece, Italy, France, etc... and spineless politicians in Germany, Sweden and Austria. Your money kept in a european account will either wither away or be impounded when banks go bankrupt, or during a currency reform, where all accounts are switched back to zero. The longer you keep your money there, the greater the risk. What I would do is to wait until the Baht equals 39/40 what could be in a few weeks or months from now and then exchange it, before it punges to unexpected lows. The market has been flooded with cheap money for too long. Hyperinflation and other horrors are waiting right at the doorstep! If you wait longer, the Euro might be gone already since this Euro experiment most likely will be coming to a quick and very painful end and then you will lose at least 50% of its value if not all! It's just common sense! euro will collapse in the next 5 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony5 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 There was an announcement recently from the central Thai Bank would not continue to support the Bhat this resulted in a 4% swing in THB/GBP. Not sure about swing against the Euro which is currently weak against all major currencies but has made some recent gains. A lot of smart people cannot predict Ex rates correctly - far be it for laymen to do so. IMHO Its all a gamble!! The swing against the GBP happened because of the outcome of the UK elections, nothing to do with the central Thai bank, and for your information in the past few days the Baht has strengthened again against most currencies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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