Euro to Baht forecast for the next year?

[Naam]

I'll tell you what will happen to the Euro/Baht exchange rate.

Next month on the 14th................

Naaah, I'm not gonna tell you because you will all hedge against me.

at least give us the time when something will happen next month on the 14th. is it safe to fly SIN-BKK with Singapore Airlines around noon? if not i could easily change and take a later flight

[Anthony5]

I'll tell you what will happen to the Euro/Baht exchange rate.

Next month on the 14th................

Naaah, I'm not gonna tell you because you will all hedge against me.

at least give us the time when something will happen next month on the 14th. is it safe to fly SIN-BKK with Singapore Airlines around noon? if not i could easily change and take a later flight

Sorry Naam, can't do that.

Better cancel your flight, as there is no escape.

[Sydebolle]

I opened a foreign currency deposit account and transferred the hard currency onto that account (most bank will - reluctantly though - do it). Changed the amounts I needed at the exchange rate of the moment - cannot go more flexible in a country like Thailand.
Alternatively try to buy Baht/sell Euro FORWARD; provided you find a bank in Europe doing this based on amount and currency.

[TheFishman1]

I'll ask my forgin teller for u

[green job]

Well yes,and no. The EU as we know it will fail. The Euro is 100% on its way out,as they have been printing currency for a while now.

Money and currency is not the same thing ,this we all know.

Germany have made a big boob in falsifying accounts. They are desperate to get their hands on the UK WW assets,but this will not happen.

The whole of unelected EU parliment has been rumbled.

So the odds are a large fall in the Euros value

thank you for your eggsburt insights kind Sir! congratulations for being soon a billionaire because surely you have put your money where your mouth is and shorted the €UR with huge leverage.

being an ignorant but always eager to learn, you are kindly asked which instruments you are using to profit from the EURo's "way out". big thanks in advance!

thanks also for the revelation that the Germans are desperately trying to get their hands on UK assets. but what exactly are WW assets? wild widows? wicket witches? world war remnants?

I thank you for your uneducated reply Look Herr Naam, We all know what they are trying to achieve, If you cant do it using physical force, then try and

do it financially.I am sure the UK and other countrys connected with this unelected union,are fed up to the teeth.

Never ever forget that the UK are head of a Club,its called The commenwealth of nations. To be a member the countrys must qualify,Germany does not.

[chilli42]

Any answer you get will be, at the very best, a guess. There are too many factors influencing currency rates, some are visible, some are wild cards (eg a EU ban on Thai exports) and others hidden such as manipulation by hedge funds etc.

I have to deal with the same issue when bringing in US currency. To mediate the risk inherent in currency fluctuations I set a target exchange rate and put a +/- 25% (band should reflect your risk tolerance) band on that. Any time the rate enters the band in a given month I make a transfer of some of the funds (I use 15% of the amount but this should reflect your risk tolerance). Clearly I don't get the best rate of the year. However, having a method prevents me from succoming to panic or euphoria ... which always results in a bad average rate (unless you are blind lucky). I am sure there are smarter people with better approaches but using this averaging approach has lightened my burden of regret over the years.

[Sharpasatack]

Cnvert your Euros to USD now. You can get a USD account at a bank, use a safe, or the matress method depending on your risk tolerance. Then when you must, convert the USD to THB.

[mikiea]

My predicition is that the EU will collapse and dissolve at some given point and that civil war in certain parts of it will break out due to mass immigration, religious conflict, unemployment, skyrocketing taxes, sharp increase in food and beverage prices, rents and general cost of living, the problems in Greece, Italy, France, etc... and spineless politicians in Germany, Sweden and Austria. Your money kept in a european account will either wither away or be impounded when banks go bankrupt, or during a currency reform, where all accounts are switched back to zero. The longer you keep your money there, the greater the risk. What I would do is to wait until the Baht equals 39/40 what could be in a few weeks or months from now and then exchange it, before it punges to unexpected lows. The market has been flooded with cheap money for too long. Hyperinflation and other horrors are waiting right at the doorstep! If you wait longer, the Euro might be gone already since this Euro experiment most likely will be coming to a quick and very painful end and then you will lose at least 50% of its value if not all!

you are correct , the nanny states will fall first . it is a shame Germany is being forced to carry the liberal euro slackers into their early retirements after short work histories . retire at 50-55 , 32 -35 hour work weeks , 4-5 day work weeks , free medical , free education , subsidized housing , 4 + weeks vacation from get go ........the Euro is a good idea on paper , in practice not so much . Greece , beautiful , people wonderful , but the country is tragic , 45 coffee shops per square mile , .042 manufacturing or factory business in the same land area . a good cup of coffee will not pay the way . after they miss the next payback installment of the welfare money they got ol' merkle said she will send them a danish to go with their coffee .

[TM77]

Anyone forgot exactly 24 months ago one "€uro" bought nearly THB 45.00

Who purchased Baht then ?

The "Euro" is doomed but that are Fiat currencies anyway and Thailand is no safe heaven.

[mikiea]

Well yes,and no. The EU as we know it will fail. The Euro is 100% on its way out,as they have been printing currency for a while now.

Money and currency is not the same thing ,this we all know.

Germany have made a big boob in falsifying accounts. They are desperate to get their hands on the UK WW assets,but this will not happen.

The whole of unelected EU parliment has been rumbled.

So the odds are a large fall in the Euros value

thank you for your eggsburt insights kind Sir! congratulations for being soon a billionaire because surely you have put your money where your mouth is and shorted the €UR with huge leverage.

being an ignorant but always eager to learn, you are kindly asked which instruments you are using to profit from the EURo's "way out". big thanks in advance!

thanks also for the revelation that the Germans are desperately trying to get their hands on UK assets. but what exactly are WW assets? wild widows? wicket witches? world war remnants?

I thank you for your uneducated reply Look Herr Naam, We all know what they are trying to achieve, If you cant do it using physical force, then try and

do it financially.I am sure the UK and other countrys connected with this unelected union,are fed up to the teeth.

Never ever forget that the UK are head of a Club,its called The commenwealth of nations. To be a member the countrys must qualify,Germany does not.

you do know that only esl teachers use the word "uneducated" in a phrase , do you not ?.... a club ? a club whose members are slackers and commies ? go home and try to get a real job .

[Jaggg88]

Wait till Greece (and the UK) leaves the EUSSR. You will be lucky to get 30.

Well The UK do not have the Euro, Not like poor old Greece trapped in a economic prison

One of Greece's few options is to leave the Euro and relaunch their own currency which they can devalue at will to wipe out debts. This doesn't affect the man on the street in Greece but will affect big business. The plus side is it will help boost tourism.

[green job]

Well yes,and no. The EU as we know it will fail. The Euro is 100% on its way out,as they have been printing currency for a while now.

Money and currency is not the same thing ,this we all know.

Germany have made a big boob in falsifying accounts. They are desperate to get their hands on the UK WW assets,but this will not happen.

The whole of unelected EU parliment has been rumbled.

So the odds are a large fall in the Euros value

thank you for your eggsburt insights kind Sir! congratulations for being soon a billionaire because surely you have put your money where your mouth is and shorted the €UR with huge leverage.

being an ignorant but always eager to learn, you are kindly asked which instruments you are using to profit from the EURo's "way out". big thanks in advance!

thanks also for the revelation that the Germans are desperately trying to get their hands on UK assets. but what exactly are WW assets? wild widows? wicket witches? world war remnants?

I thank you for your uneducated reply Look Herr Naam, We all know what they are trying to achieve, If you cant do it using physical force, then try and

do it financially.I am sure the UK and other countrys connected with this unelected union,are fed up to the teeth.

Never ever forget that the UK are head of a Club,its called The commenwealth of nations. To be a member the countrys must qualify,Germany does not.

you do know that only esl teachers use the word "uneducated" in a phrase , do you not ?.... a club ? a club whose members are slackers and commies ? go home and try to get a real job .

1 Good of you to stick your nose in I take it you are another one of those worried Prussians, I in no way blame you for the worry,I hope for your sake

it will not drop to 25 BT against the Euro. But that is the rumor,within the industrie

[Shiver]

TL;DR version: Near term a bit of fluctuation, Long term EUR capitulation

Like everyone else, I can't predict the future, though I do seem to have a good track record of picking the right outcome, but about a year too early. That is to say I crunch the numbers and come to a conclusion, only to see the market make me wrong, then when everyone has had their laugh at me the market does the big swing I thought it was ready to do earlier. There seems to be a propagation delay. I called the last 3 stock market crashes between 9 months and 1 year too early (I bought put options on the last 2, and lost, then got a second kick in the backside shortly after when they finally moved).

Anyhow, EU printing money doesn't seem to be stimulating the people to spend more, so the only thing we see instead is the indexes rising. HSBC has just announced that it will be charging fees to hold money in any currency that has 0% or negative interest rates, and they're a pretty big bank, so likely others will follow. That would be a disincentive to me to hold EUR.

There is a tendency that when trying to avoid deflation by printing more money, and the market resists, there comes a capitulation point where it steps right past inflation and 'advances to GO' - that is, it goes straight from mild deflation into hyperInflation (the old "slowly at first, then all at once" thing).

After all that waffle, what I'm getting at is that if you can afford to wait a while and bring it over in parts to cost average your exchange rate, that's probably as good as taking a binary guess in the ultimate direction without the stressing or pondering. I wouldn't want to hold EUR for the long term though no matter what (multi year I mean).

I'm just surprised that Thailand has been so slow to join the race to the bottom in devaluing its currency like so many other countries are doing.

Edited May 21, 2015 by Shiver

[Sandman77]

I don't care the Bhat euro exchange rate this and next year I move over to the philipines , and make a big break from the land of smiles after 10 year,

Here

so peso much lower , maybe someone want follow me?

[NeverSure]

Wait till Greece (and the UK) leaves the EUSSR. You will be lucky to get 30.

Well The UK do not have the Euro, Not like poor old Greece trapped in a economic prison

Yes of course. Greece's problems are all caused by having the Euro. If it just didn't have that pesky problem it would be in tall clover.

[angiolo]

My predicition is that the EU will collapse and dissolve at some given point and that civil war in certain parts of it will break out due to mass immigration, religious conflict, unemployment, skyrocketing taxes, sharp increase in food and beverage prices, rents and general cost of living, the problems in Greece, Italy, France, etc... and spineless politicians in Germany, Sweden and Austria. Your money kept in a european account will either wither away or be impounded when banks go bankrupt, or during a currency reform, where all accounts are switched back to zero. The longer you keep your money there, the greater the risk. What I would do is to wait until the Baht equals 39/40 what could be in a few weeks or months from now and then exchange it, before it punges to unexpected lows. The market has been flooded with cheap money for too long. Hyperinflation and other horrors are waiting right at the doorstep! If you wait longer, the Euro might be gone already since this Euro experiment most likely will be coming to a quick and very painful end and then you will lose at least 50% of its value if not all!

WOW.... Am I glad we Brits do not have the Euro

[Naam]

Well yes,and no. The EU as we know it will fail. The Euro is 100% on its way out,as they have been printing currency for a while now.

Money and currency is not the same thing ,this we all know.

Germany have made a big boob in falsifying accounts. They are desperate to get their hands on the UK WW assets,but this will not happen.

The whole of unelected EU parliment has been rumbled.

So the odds are a large fall in the Euros value

thank you for your eggsburt insights kind Sir! congratulations for being soon a billionaire because surely you have put your money where your mouth is and shorted the €UR with huge leverage.

being an ignorant but always eager to learn, you are kindly asked which instruments you are using to profit from the EURo's "way out". big thanks in advance!

thanks also for the revelation that the Germans are desperately trying to get their hands on UK assets. but what exactly are WW assets? wild widows? wicket witches? world war remnants?

I thank you for your uneducated reply Look Herr Naam, We all know what they are trying to achieve, If you cant do it using physical force, then try and

do it financially.I am sure the UK and other countrys connected with this unelected union,are fed up to the teeth.

Never ever forget that the UK are head of a Club,its called The commenwealth of nations. To be a member the countrys must qualify,Germany does not.

you do know that only esl teachers use the word "uneducated" in a phrase , do you not ?.... a club ? a club whose members are slackers and commies ? go home and try to get a real job .

[slipperylobster]

Put it in USD.....and do that quickly.

[Naam]

I don't care the Bhat euro exchange rate this and next year I move over to the philipines , and make a big break from the land of smiles after 10 year,

Here

so peso much lower , maybe someone want follow me?

once people find out that the EUR lost ~24% vs. the Philippine Peso since early last year, they will be hesitating to follow you

Edited May 21, 2015 by Naam

[thejcb]

There's this geezer in Pattaya, used to work for refuse disposal as a driver, let's ask him !

Or should we ask that other bloke, the ex-postal worker

Why do you feel TV readers are qualified to answer this type of question ? Just because they spend baht ?

Let's ignore the currency experts and ask someone who is in the Oven after getting divorced and is now cheating the benefits system after he injured himself while operating some machinery on his 2pm-10pm shift down the mill.

It beggars belief.

[Beng]

Euro to Baht rates of the last 10 years.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=THB&view=10Y

[green job]

Wait till Greece (and the UK) leaves the EUSSR. You will be lucky to get 30.

Well The UK do not have the Euro, Not like poor old Greece trapped in a economic prison

Yes of course. Greece's problems are all caused by having the Euro. If it just didn't have that pesky problem it would be in tall clover.

Not tall clover but better off,,, My German friend in Berlin always jokes about the way Germany have bought,and now rule Greese

He said Spain is next on the list

Its a con surely you can all see that?

[metisdead]

Posts containing profanities have been removed.

[NeverSure]

One of Greece's few options is to leave the Euro and relaunch their own currency which they can devalue at will to wipe out debts. This doesn't affect the man on the street in Greece but will affect big business. The plus side is it will help boost tourism.

If Greece had a devalued currency its imports would cost a lot more hurting the man on the street. Then Greece could print even more money to give to the man on the street but the money would be further devalued. It's a vicious cycle.

Greece could print more money if it created new wealth to justify it but it doesn't. Germany's additional wealth comes partly from manufacturing, turning raw materials into something more valuable. (Called "value added".)

Greece's problem is in promising people something for nothing and that doesn't work except to get people elected. Greece can't pull out of its spiral because it has too many people at the trough. Contrast that with Germany where people have a very strong work ethic and a motivation to create new things of value.

[Stef]

US current account deficit ~ 100 Billion dollars per quarter

UK current account deficit ~ 20 Billion pounds per quarter

Euro zone current account surplus ~ 50 Billion euros per quarter

US budget deficit 2014 ~ 2.8% of GDP

UK budget deficit 2014 ~ 5.7% of GDP

Euro zone budget deficit ~ 2.4% of GDP

The Euro zone is doomed

Source: Trading Economics

[Rocketsurgeon]

The ECB is actively trying to drive the Euro down so I would not be betting against that. Further, the EU climate and competitiveness is not good, even Germany has issues. Greece, who knows...but maybe us soon. That will hit Germany hard and if they exit or get a sweetheart deal, what about Southern Europe? Overall, pension liabilities, unemployment well into double digits.

But all that has little to do with Thailand. A currency sparsely traded and easily manipulated by BOT. There are few reasons, really none that Thailand should want a strong currency. Of course, pride. Perhaps they have becone so reliant upon imports that higher prices will wreck both the industrial and retail economies.

It will also matter what foreign reserves the bot holds and what their debts are denominated in.

I'm betting, holding dollars for the baht to weaken but this is going far slower than I expected.

Want a great life? Move to Japan. Seriously.

[Anthony5]

What I can see is that in the last week the Euro has been getting stronger against all currencies.

The dollar has strengthened against the Euro by about 5% this week, but that hasn't been reflected in the Dollar/Baht exchange rate.

[Naam]

Well yes,and no. The EU as we know it will fail. The Euro is 100% on its way out,as they have been printing currency for a while now.

Money and currency is not the same thing ,this we all know.

Germany have made a big boob in falsifying accounts. They are desperate to get their hands on the UK WW assets,but this will not happen.

The whole of unelected EU parliment has been rumbled.

So the odds are a large fall in the Euros value

thank you for your eggsburt insights kind Sir! congratulations for being soon a billionaire because surely you have put your money where your mouth is and shorted the €UR with huge leverage.

being an ignorant but always eager to learn, you are kindly asked which instruments you are using to profit from the EURo's "way out". big thanks in advance!

thanks also for the revelation that the Germans are desperately trying to get their hands on UK assets. but what exactly are WW assets? wild widows? wicket witches? world war remnants?

I thank you for your uneducated reply Look Herr Naam, We all know what they are trying to achieve, If you cant do it using physical force, then try and

do it financially.I am sure the UK and other countrys connected with this unelected union,are fed up to the teeth.

Never ever forget that the UK are head of a Club,its called The commenwealth of nations. To be a member the countrys must qualify,Germany does not.

right you are dear Sir! Germany does not qualify to be a "commonwealthy clubmember" as do the illustrious and extremely wealthy countries such as

Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Ghana

Kenya

Lesotho

Malawi

Mozambique

Nigeria

Rwanda

Uganda

Swaziland

Papua New Guinea

p.s. big thanks for the amusement you provide. please keep up the good job

[green job]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Commonwealth_of_Nations

Oh Mine Gott Herr Naam you have forgot to mention a few.

[green job]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Commonwealth_of_Nations

Oh Mine Gott Herr Naam you have forgot to mention a few.

Just to add Herr Naam bread I strongly advise you to read it through,so as not to embarrass yourself even more. I am your amazed at your lack of knowledge

As i was under the impession your IQ was above average.

You will see will see that one thing the Commonwealth stands for is Democracy,and we all know that is not the case with the EU