Delaying general election will put more pressure on junta

[webfact]

ONE YEAR AFTER THE COUP
Delaying general election will put more pressure on junta
KRIS BHROMSUTHI
THE NATION

BANGKOK: -- THERE HAS been growing anxiety about the National Council for Peace and Order's "road map" to the general election, with discussions in recent weeks suggesting the election may be held much later than originally promised after the May 22 coup last year. Those interviewed say the longer the election is delayed, the more the pressure on General Prayut Chan-o-cha's administration and the NCPO.

Some say that in order for the referendum to be legitimate, the interim constitution imposed after the coup will have to be amended to allow a referendum, with adequate time for debate and deliberation and to study the draft of the new permanent charter. Some experts suggested this could take up to six months.

There are also debates on what the referendum should be about - should there be a plebiscite on the whole draft charter or just on some articles or sections of it?

What happens if the draft is rejected?

Some experts predicted that the election might in fact be postponed by up to two years. What's more, key leaders of mass protests put down by the junta, such as Suthep Thaugsuban and Jatuporn Prom-pan, have been vocally urging Prayut to stay on for two or more years.

Thammasat University political scientist Attasit Pankaew said the longer the election is deferred, the more pressure will be piled on the NCPO. "The junta needs to beware that it most likely is going to face increasing pressure both domestically and abroad. If the election is delayed for another two years, domestic pressure on the junta would very much depend on how it governs the country and the country's economic performance, which has been disappointing," he said.

Attasit said the economy was the key factor that would determine the popularity of the junta, and hence the support or resistance directed towards it.

"Of course, everyone wants to see the junta leading the country towards reforms, especially political reform, but [the military rulers] need to remember that everyone's key priority is their living standards, above all else," he said.

Law lecturer Ekachai Chainuvati, who did not want his institution to be named because of the sensitivity of the situation, said the country's undemocratic rule had had a negative impact on the economy, which in turn was affecting the relationship and popularity of the junta with the general public.

'Public will lose confidence'

Ekachai said that without an election, people would not feel confident and certain about the country's direction. Thus they are reluctant to spend money, and this can have a great negative impact on the economy.

"The country's economic performance has been poor, and it will be one of the key factors in the deteriorating popularity of the junta," he concluded.

Democrat Party legal adviser Wirat Kalayasiri said he agreed that the longer the election is postponed, the greater the pressure on the junta, particularly if it is unable to turn around the economy. However, if it can improve the economy, people will then give the NCPO a chance.

Not only is the junta likely to face domestic pressure, the longer it defers the election, the greater will be the pressure exerted by the international community, especially Western democratic countries such as the United States and the members of the European Union.

Former Pheu Thai MP Chavalit Wichayasut said a price might have to be paid if the election is delayed. For example, Thailand is currently being boycotted by the US and the EU.

"We have to recognise that we are not alone in this world. We need to be accepted globally," he said.

Despite the emphasis on the timing of the election, many admitted that the Kingdom's decade-old political problems and divisions would not just disappear.

Academics and politicians interviewed all agreed that the general election could at best solve some problems but the democratically elected government would face a great burden in ensuring peace and order, and in the push for reform and reconciliation.

"I think the most important thing is that after an election, we will have a clear and collective plan on the process of how we are going to move forward as a nation. The plan must be accepted by all sides and political groups," Attasit said.

He said the NCPO currently felt the need to establish organisations that will oversee and monitor the progress of reforms after an elected government assumes power.

"If a democratically elected government doesn't carry on with the reform plan, then all could go waste, because elections alone cannot solve all problems. For example, reconciliation is more than about having an election - it has to do with equality, justice and civil liberty," he said.

Ekachai expressed similar sentiments. An election cannot solve the problem of military interference in politics. This "vicious cycle" will continue as long as Thai society and people still accept military power and hope that a military coup can solve political problems.

Wirat, meanwhile, said an election itself might not solve all problems, including political conflicts.

As for Chavalit, though he agreed that an election could not solve all problems, he said it could ease tension after a civilian government returns. "I believe the situation will be better after the election because it will give an opportunity for the people to make decisions and make their voices heard," Wirat said.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Delaying-general-election-will-put-more-pressure-o-30260578.html

-- The Nation 2015-05-21

[Your Thainess]

I don't think the junta really cares about approval from ordinary people or the international community. Reform is not the real reason they seized power.

[rubl]

I don't think the junta really cares about approval from ordinary people or the international community. Reform is not the real reason they seized power.

Well, international approval tends to be a bit fickle.

BTW Gen. Chavalit seems to have summed it up nicely although I'm not sure he understands the implicit "bread and games" attitude.

"As for Chavalit, though he agreed that an election could not solve all problems, he said it could ease tension after a civilian government returns"

[ratcatcher]

I don't think the junta really cares about approval from ordinary people or the international community. Reform is not the real reason they seized power.

Well, international approval tends to be a bit fickle.

BTW Gen. Chavalit seems to have summed it up nicely although I'm not sure he understands the implicit "bread and games" attitude.

"As for Chavalit, though he agreed that an election could not solve all problems, he said it could ease tension after a civilian government returns"

rubl, do you have your Chavalits mixed up?

This is Chavalit Wichayasut not Chavalit Yongchaiyudh (Big Jiew)

[NongKhaiKid]

Pressure is a relative term and can be actual or perceived. People who perceive they are under pressure can be very dangerous, see enemies and plots everywhere and react accordingly.

[deckape]

Why would Jatuporn want the current government to stay two more years?

[Emster23]

Can't lose an election if you don't hold one.... If "roadmap to democracy" is anything like road construction here, it will be long time coming. Took 5 years or so to make Jomtien Second Road, and was falling apart before finished. Use that as a model.

[Toscano]

Delaying the election is a good idea . I believe that the new constitution will be designed to make an elected government not really democratic in its ability to function .

All is peace and quiet now , let the military junta continue to govern . The biggest problem is the economy that has been sliding downward since the 2006 coup .

We will see what happens if there is a referendum on the constitution , the danger is of a majority voting against it .

Governing a country isn't easy , especially when you haven't anyone with a flare for business to fire up the economy .

[h90]

I don't think the junta really cares about approval from ordinary people or the international community. Reform is not the real reason they seized power.

Well here in the south the approval rate is something like 99%.

And the fight against corruption is liked by many people.

[Eric Loh]

If the junta has genuine intention to bring happiness to the people and has no hidden agenda as proxy to larger powers, they can consider stepping down and establish a National Government consisting of political parties and civilians. The National government can implement the reforms and set up an election thereafter. A civilian government will be more acceptable to the West and may unshackled many roadblocks politically and economically. Of course, that will be a big blow for the military and an admission that the coup is a total waste and it certainly looks that way as days passed.

[Thailand]

I don't think the junta really cares about approval from ordinary people or the international community. Reform is not the real reason they seized power.

Well here in the south the approval rate is something like 99%.

And the fight against corruption is liked by many people.

Only 99% ,guess those pollsters will be sent for re education.

[h90]

If the junta has genuine intention to bring happiness to the people and has no hidden agenda as proxy to larger powers, they can consider stepping down and establish a National Government consisting of political parties and civilians. The National government can implement the reforms and set up an election thereafter. A civilian government will be more acceptable to the West and may unshackled many roadblocks politically and economically. Of course, that will be a big blow for the military and an admission that the coup is a total waste and it certainly looks that way as days passed.

And what do you expect this national government will do? Fight each other, trying to fill their pockets and build in loopholes.

Look at the persons at PPP, Democrats + Banharn, Newin, the Shinawatras etc....Do you think they would sit peaceful together and make some honest reforms?

Such a National government was what Suthep wanted, but Thaksin didn't want it. Before Thaksin wanted a 1 party system....national government and the Democrats didn't want it.

[elgordo38]

I don't think the junta really cares about approval from ordinary people or the international community. Reform is not the real reason they seized power.

Well, international approval tends to be a bit fickle.

BTW Gen. Chavalit seems to have summed it up nicely although I'm not sure he understands the implicit "bread and games" attitude.

"As for Chavalit, though he agreed that an election could not solve all problems, he said it could ease tension after a civilian government returns"

Civilian government returns? On a leash no doubt.

[Fat Haggis]

I don't think the junta really cares about approval from ordinary people or the international community. Reform is not the real reason they seized power.

Well here in the south the approval rate is something like 99%.

And the fight against corruption is liked by many people.

Try selling that to the Insurgency I assume you canvassed the people in Yala and other places in the South to come to the 99% approval?

[rubl]

If the junta has genuine intention to bring happiness to the people and has no hidden agenda as proxy to larger powers, they can consider stepping down and establish a National Government consisting of political parties and civilians. The National government can implement the reforms and set up an election thereafter. A civilian government will be more acceptable to the West and may unshackled many roadblocks politically and economically. Of course, that will be a big blow for the military and an admission that the coup is a total waste and it certainly looks that way as days passed.

non-elected civilians? Didn't the 'main' political party denounce such movements? Didn't Ms. Yingluck tell us about such things being against the law otherwise she'd be willing to step down for it?

Of course, before we can move to a National Government we'd have to get answers to a few tricky questions. Who to select for PM amongst others, a non-elected, appointed PM. Till now political parties don't seem to like the idea.

All in all I think you've just tried to position the current government in an impossible position and from there start to blame them. Not so subtle, my dear Eric.

[rubl]

I don't think the junta really cares about approval from ordinary people or the international community. Reform is not the real reason they seized power.

Well, international approval tends to be a bit fickle.

BTW Gen. Chavalit seems to have summed it up nicely although I'm not sure he understands the implicit "bread and games" attitude.

"As for Chavalit, though he agreed that an election could not solve all problems, he said it could ease tension after a civilian government returns"

rubl, do you have your Chavalits mixed up?

This is Chavalit Wichayasut not Chavalit Yongchaiyudh (Big Jiew)

He, it was early morning, I didn't have my first coffee yet, I was barely awake, there're too many Chavalits, the cats had made a lot of noise in the night (catching rats I guess), and on top of that you complain

OK, a minor mix-up. Actually I only need to remove the "Gen." and all is fine again. Still a "bread and games" attitude on Chavalit's part.

[FangFerang]

I don't think the junta really cares about approval from ordinary people or the international community. Reform is not the real reason they seized power.

Well here in the south the approval rate is something like 99%.

And the fight against corruption is liked by many people.

Seems to be a lot of bomb attacks, extrajudicial killings and unrest foir anything near 50% to be accurate, much less 90% Who did you ask, 10 soldiers and volunteer rangers?

[Srikcir]

"Thailand is currently being boycotted by the US and the EU."

NO.

Thailand government is ony being criticized for suppression of Thais rights and liberties. But they may boycott Thailand because of human trafficking and illegal fishing.

[tonbridgebrit]

"The junta needs to beware that it most likely is going to face increasing pressure both domestically and abroad."

Surely, what the Thais think doesn't really matter. You can't actually say stuff that is negative towards the government. It's what the West thinks that matters. The West has reduced political links with Thailand, and it is pressure from the West that is forcing Thailand to walk towards an election. What is Thailand's reward for having a general election ? It is a return to normal diplomatic and political links. Is this reward big enough ?

[Emster23]

I don't think the junta really cares about approval from ordinary people or the international community. Reform is not the real reason they seized power.

Well here in the south the approval rate is something like 99%.

And the fight against corruption is liked by many people.

Try selling that to the Insurgency I assume you canvassed the people in Yala and other places in the South to come to the 99% approval?

Got 99% because ones sent into separatist areas somehow didn't make it back with results.....

[Eric Loh]

If the junta has genuine intention to bring happiness to the people and has no hidden agenda as proxy to larger powers, they can consider stepping down and establish a National Government consisting of political parties and civilians. The National government can implement the reforms and set up an election thereafter. A civilian government will be more acceptable to the West and may unshackled many roadblocks politically and economically. Of course, that will be a big blow for the military and an admission that the coup is a total waste and it certainly looks that way as days passed.

non-elected civilians? Didn't the 'main' political party denounce such movements? Didn't Ms. Yingluck tell us about such things being against the law otherwise she'd be willing to step down for it?

Of course, before we can move to a National Government we'd have to get answers to a few tricky questions. Who to select for PM amongst others, a non-elected, appointed PM. Till now political parties don't seem to like the idea.

All in all I think you've just tried to position the current government in an impossible position and from there start to blame them. Not so subtle, my dear Eric.

Yingluck opposed then when we have an elected government and the 2007 constitution was still in place. No elected incumbent government would step aside from demand from an anti government mob. We now have a coup government and the 2007 constitution has been shredded and will be replace. No elected government incumbency. This government has no popular mandate and premiership position is dispensable.

The military can forge a National government like they did forming AV government. The NCPO can even appoint the PM (civilian). Reforms that are critical can be decreed and implemented. When the charter is completed and referendum approved by popular mandate, the government calls for election.

I will think a civilian government albeit appointed is more palatable to most major countries and the monkey off the back of the military. Ya, wishful thinking but just thinking out of the box.

[martinhp]

Delaying the election is a good idea . I believe that the new constitution will be designed to make an elected government not really democratic in its ability to function .

All is peace and quiet now , let the military junta continue to govern . The biggest problem is the economy that has been sliding downward since the 2006 coup .

We will see what happens if there is a referendum on the constitution , the danger is of a majority voting against it .

Governing a country isn't easy , especially when you haven't anyone with a flare for business to fire up the economy .

And it's good you have no saying either amazing you have a brain?????

[rubl]

If the junta has genuine intention to bring happiness to the people and has no hidden agenda as proxy to larger powers, they can consider stepping down and establish a National Government consisting of political parties and civilians. The National government can implement the reforms and set up an election thereafter. A civilian government will be more acceptable to the West and may unshackled many roadblocks politically and economically. Of course, that will be a big blow for the military and an admission that the coup is a total waste and it certainly looks that way as days passed.

non-elected civilians? Didn't the 'main' political party denounce such movements? Didn't Ms. Yingluck tell us about such things being against the law otherwise she'd be willing to step down for it?

Of course, before we can move to a National Government we'd have to get answers to a few tricky questions. Who to select for PM amongst others, a non-elected, appointed PM. Till now political parties don't seem to like the idea.

All in all I think you've just tried to position the current government in an impossible position and from there start to blame them. Not so subtle, my dear Eric.

Yingluck opposed then when we have an elected government and the 2007 constitution was still in place. No elected incumbent government would step aside from demand from an anti government mob. We now have a coup government and the 2007 constitution has been shredded and will be replace. No elected government incumbency. This government has no popular mandate and premiership position is dispensable.

The military can forge a National government like they did forming AV government. The NCPO can even appoint the PM (civilian). Reforms that are critical can be decreed and implemented. When the charter is completed and referendum approved by popular mandate, the government calls for election.

I will think a civilian government albeit appointed is more palatable to most major countries and the monkey off the back of the military. Ya, wishful thinking but just thinking out of the box.

Somehow you still seem to think in the box you're in, the one where anything goes as long as it negative towards the NCPO, or positive towards the Shinawatra government. Trying your best to forge the situation to fit with how you'd like to see it.

[jesimps]

I don't think the junta really cares about approval from ordinary people or the international community. Reform is not the real reason they seized power.

Well here in the south the approval rate is something like 99%.

And the fight against corruption is liked by many people.

Your first sentence is stating the obvious, your second is incredibly niaive.

[wowfactor10]

If the junta has genuine intention to bring happiness to the people and has no hidden agenda as proxy to larger powers, they can consider stepping down and establish a National Government consisting of political parties and civilians. The National government can implement the reforms and set up an election thereafter. A civilian government will be more acceptable to the West and may unshackled many roadblocks politically and economically. Of course, that will be a big blow for the military and an admission that the coup is a total waste and it certainly looks that way as days passed.

non-elected civilians? Didn't the 'main' political party denounce such movements? Didn't Ms. Yingluck tell us about such things being against the law otherwise she'd be willing to step down for it?

Of course, before we can move to a National Government we'd have to get answers to a few tricky questions. Who to select for PM amongst others, a non-elected, appointed PM. Till now political parties don't seem to like the idea.

All in all I think you've just tried to position the current government in an impossible position and from there start to blame them. Not so subtle, my dear Eric.

I do not agree Rubl its not Eric that has put this government in any impossible position..

This government has been put in position by them selves ONLY !