Baht continues downward trend

[webfact]

Baht continues downward trend
The Nation, Reuters



The downward trend of the Thai baht continues on the back of US dollar rally.

BANGKOK: -- As of 2.25pm, the baht was at 33.74 per dollar, from yesterday close of 33.64. It recently fell to the six-year low at 33.78-79. The greenback has also strengthened against other major currencies as well as the currencies in Asean.

Yesterday, the dollar was above 13,000 Indonesian rupiah, the level unseen since 1998.

The baht has fallen sharply since the Bank of Thailand cut the policy rates while the central bank governor signalled the bias towards a weaker curreny, to revive the domestic economy.

Many currency strategists predicted the dollar upswing would start next month on expectations that Fed Chair Janet Yellen will set the stage for a hike in the third quarter at the upcoming policy meeting.

The Fed has said that a rate rise, which most economists expect will come in September, will be dependent on improving economic data. Friday’s employment report could provide a spark if new jobs created in May exceed the 225,000 market consensus.

"The onus on economic data to surprise sharply to the upside over the next few weeks is fairly high, else the Fed may be unable to prepare the market at the June FOMC for hikes commencing in the third quarter," analysts at Barclays wrote in a note.

The US currency is up more than 20 per cent since last summer.

What could have a big impact is a resolution to the stand-off between Greece and the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund. Currency speculators have been long dollars and short euros in recent days as worries over a potential Greece default have risen.

In the latest Reuters poll, forecasters have moderately upgraded their expectations of the euro, although they expect the common-currency to trade lower in the coming twelve months.

The euro is expected to fall to $1.05 in six months and further to $1.04 in a year.

But the number of analysts who forecast the euro to trade at or below parity against the dollar has fallen - from 22 in April, 19 in May to 15 in the current poll.

The poll also showed strategists were confident that sterling will be less vulnerable to a dollar rally.

Although the consensus that the pound will weaken to $1.50 in six months and $1.51 in a year, from $1.53 currently, this represents a significantly stronger set of forecasts when compared with the May poll.

After the centre-right Conservative party unexpectedly won an overall majority in May’s election, easing political uncertainty, a majority of the common contributors raised their forecasts for the pound from last month’s poll.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-continues-downward-trend-30261587.html


-- The Nation 2015-06-04

[Anthony5]

The greenback has also strengthened against other major currencies as well as the currencies in Asean.

I thought the dollar had weakened against most major currencies in the past 4 days.

[doggie1955]

So if I am taking money out from my bank in the U.S. by using the ATM here in Thailand, and I getting the 33.75 rate for the baht?

[Pib]

The greenback has also strengthened against other major currencies as well as the currencies in Asean.

I thought the dollar had weakened against most major currencies in the past 4 days.

This article really seems to be based on the USD Index Spot over the last year....like were it says the USD is up 20% over the last year which is correct if comparing to the USD Index Spot which is a basket of currency consisting of:

It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to other select currencies:

• Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
• Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
• Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
• Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
• Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight
• Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight

I think everyone knows how the Euro and Yen have went south in in comparison to the USD over the last year (around 20%) and those two currencies make up the bulk of the USD Spot Index...especially the Euro. Yea, this article seems to be within mostly compared to the USD Index Spot over the last year (shown below) with a few comments about recent performance with some other currencies like the baht. Seems to be more of a "publish anything" type article so the reporter can make some money to pay the rent.

Edited June 4, 2015 by Pib

[Skywalker69]

So if I am taking money out from my bank in the U.S. by using the ATM here in Thailand, and I getting the 33.75 rate for the baht?

No you´r not, thats the rate of the Thai Central Bank.

[espinoza]

The Thai banks charge 180 baht for any withdraw in the ATMs. When they started this practice they said this is normal everywhere. In South-Korea they did the same, but after 2 months the Koreans admitted that this is not the normal. They reversed it. Now is the cost of using an Korean ATM normal. The Thais do not want to be normal, they are so money hungry. This is a consideration many Europeans think about when they choose their holiday destination.

Edited June 4, 2015 by espinoza

[elgordo38]

So if I am taking money out from my bank in the U.S. by using the ATM here in Thailand, and I getting the 33.75 rate for the baht?

No you´r not, thats the rate of the Thai Central Bank.

The baht is up against my home currency not down. Its seems to be tracking the strength in the dollar when other currencies are figured in.

[NeverSure]

The baht was at about 28.7 to the dollar in April of 2013. It's been falling ever since with a few bumps in the road. Today it's down about 5 baht over that time or 33.7 to the dollar. Link

I feel for people who transferred money to Thailand for the purpose of getting a couple more percent in interest. That didn't work out very well for a lot of people including some I know.

[redandyellow]

Baht continues downward trend

Welcome to the Club

Signed,

The Canadian Dollar

[Naam]

The Thai banks charge 180 baht for any withdraw in the ATMs. When they started this practice they said this is normal everywhere. In South-Korea they did the same, but after 2 months the Koreans admitted that this is not the normal. They reversed it. Now is the cost of using an Korean ATM normal. The Thais do not want to be normal, they are so money hungry. This is a consideration many Europeans think about when they choose their holiday destination.

i wonder what kind of Europeans think about paying twice or three times 180 Baht ATM fees but spending for flight, hotel, food and entertainment an average of 75,000 Baht when holidaying in Thailand

[lannarebirth]

The Thai banks charge 180 baht for any withdraw in the ATMs. When they started this practice they said this is normal everywhere. In South-Korea they did the same, but after 2 months the Koreans admitted that this is not the normal. They reversed it. Now is the cost of using an Korean ATM normal. The Thais do not want to be normal, they are so money hungry. This is a consideration many Europeans think about when they choose their holiday destination.

i wonder what kind of Europeans think about paying twice or three times 180 Baht ATM fees but spending for flight, hotel, food and entertainment an average of 75,000 Baht when holidaying in Thailand

I remember vividly, sitting in a hotel bar in St. Moritz about 15 years ago, an American gentleman from Chicago going on at great length about the ATM charging him a 2 CHF service fee. I mean he was PISSED OFF! So pissed off that he knocked back half a dozen shots of some rare Scottish single malt @ 150CHF a shot just to calms his nerves, just in the hour I observed him. People are the strangest of all God's creatures.

[shaurene]

The greenback has also strengthened against other major currencies as well as the currencies in Asean.

I thought the dollar had weakened against most major currencies in the past 4 days.

NO NO NO.

[shaurene]

So if I am taking money out from my bank in the U.S. by using the ATM here in Thailand, and I getting the 33.75 rate for the baht?

No you´r not, thats the rate of the Thai Central Bank.

I remember mid last year all the so called top business guys and companies in USA and many other countries forecast that the $US would crash by the year end 2014 and also the stock market HA HA.

The US$ will always be the No: 1 currency to hold, the FED can move it in any way they want, end of story.

[chrisinth]

The baht was at about 28.7 to the dollar in April of 2013. It's been falling ever since with a few bumps in the road. Today it's down about 5 baht over that time or 33.7 to the dollar. Link

I feel for people who transferred money to Thailand for the purpose of getting a couple more percent in interest. That didn't work out very well for a lot of people including some I know.

It worked perfectly well in 1997.....................

[Asiantravel]

So if I am taking money out from my bank in the U.S. by using the ATM here in Thailand, and I getting the 33.75 rate for the baht?

No you´r not, thats the rate of the Thai Central Bank.

I remember mid last year all the so called top business guys and companies in USA and many other countries forecast that the $US would crash by the year end 2014 and also the stock market HA HA.

The US$ will always be the No: 1 currency to hold, the FED can move it in any way they want, end of story.

And do you believe that the US$ will still be the No: 1 currency to hold if “The Better Than Cash Alliance “ (which has 37 members including some of the biggest names in finance) are successful in pushing aggressively for an alternative to cash?

http://betterthancash.org/

[TheAppletons]

The US$ will always be the No: 1 currency to hold, the FED can move it in any way they want, end of story.

And do you believe that the US$ will still be the No: 1 currency to hold if “The Better Than Cash Alliance “ (which has 37 members including some of the biggest names in finance) are successful in pushing aggressively for an alternative to cash?

http://betterthancash.org/

Yeah, with the countries of Afghanistan, Malawi, and Bangladesh spearheading the effort, it's a "can't miss" proposition.

[Naam]

The baht was at about 28.7 to the dollar in April of 2013. It's been falling ever since with a few bumps in the road. Today it's down about 5 baht over that time or 33.7 to the dollar. Link

I feel for people who transferred money to Thailand for the purpose of getting a couple more percent in interest. That didn't work out very well for a lot of people including some I know.

It worked perfectly well in 1997.....................

as well as in 1998 and every year from 2001 till 2013

[Asiantravel]

The US$ will always be the No: 1 currency to hold, the FED can move it in any way they want, end of story.

And do you believe that the US$ will still be the No: 1 currency to hold if “The Better Than Cash Alliance “ (which has 37 members including some of the biggest names in finance) are successful in pushing aggressively for an alternative to cash?

http://betterthancash.org/

Yeah, with the countries of Afghanistan, Malawi, and Bangladesh spearheading the effort, it's a "can't miss" proposition.

Actually I was referring more to the large corporations that are listed on that website such as Citibank, Visa, MasterCard.

[Anthony5]

So if I am taking money out from my bank in the U.S. by using the ATM here in Thailand, and I getting the 33.75 rate for the baht?

No you´r not, thats the rate of the Thai Central Bank.

I remember mid last year all the so called top business guys and companies in USA and many other countries forecast that the $US would crash by the year end 2014 and also the stock market HA HA.

The US$ will always be the No: 1 currency to hold, the FED can move it in any way they want, end of story.

And do you believe that the US$ will still be the No: 1 currency to hold if “The Better Than Cash Alliance “ (which has 37 members including some of the biggest names in finance) are successful in pushing aggressively for an alternative to cash?

http://betterthancash.org/

I would think a credit or debit card is also an alternative to cash.

[maidee]

the baht is overpriced anyway

how can you deflate the euro 20% in just one year ???

what does thailand have to offer except rice, hookers & tourism ?

[Asiantravel]

No you´r not, thats the rate of the Thai Central Bank.

I remember mid last year all the so called top business guys and companies in USA and many other countries forecast that the $US would crash by the year end 2014 and also the stock market HA HA.

The US$ will always be the No: 1 currency to hold, the FED can move it in any way they want, end of story.

And do you believe that the US$ will still be the No: 1 currency to hold if “The Better Than Cash Alliance “ (which has 37 members including some of the biggest names in finance) are successful in pushing aggressively for an alternative to cash?

http://betterthancash.org/

I would think a credit or debit card is also an alternative to cash.

but do you think it’s a good thing to promote a cashless society, an economic system that would compel every man, woman, and child to utilize proprietary, government-monitored electronic systems to make purchases of any kind?

[Anthony5]

I remember mid last year all the so called top business guys and companies in USA and many other countries forecast that the $US would crash by the year end 2014 and also the stock market HA HA.

The US$ will always be the No: 1 currency to hold, the FED can move it in any way they want, end of story.

And do you believe that the US$ will still be the No: 1 currency to hold if “The Better Than Cash Alliance “ (which has 37 members including some of the biggest names in finance) are successful in pushing aggressively for an alternative to cash?

http://betterthancash.org/

I would think a credit or debit card is also an alternative to cash.

but do you think it’s a good thing to promote a cashless society, an economic system that would compel every man, woman, and child to utilize proprietary, government-monitored electronic systems to make purchases of any kind?

I haven't read up on the link you provided, but what I can understand from it, is that better tan cash is exactly what I was talking about. Credit and debit cards. So what's the point?

Going from the Silk Road convictions, it looks like the government are very well capable of monitoring the movements of your suggested non-cash currency as well.

[NeverSure]

The US$ will always be the No: 1 currency to hold, the FED can move it in any way they want, end of story.

And do you believe that the US$ will still be the No: 1 currency to hold if “The Better Than Cash Alliance “ (which has 37 members including some of the biggest names in finance) are successful in pushing aggressively for an alternative to cash?

http://betterthancash.org/

Yeah, with the countries of Afghanistan, Malawi, and Bangladesh spearheading the effort, it's a "can't miss" proposition.

Actually I was referring more to the large corporations that are listed on that website such as Citibank, Visa, MasterCard.

You don't understand what it is. You need to know the difference between a currency and cash, paper money.

[Srikcir]

It was a good thing for the Junta that the Yingluck regime built large US dollar cash reserves. These reserves resulted in part as a result of increased GDP growth. Prayut had been using it to artificially prop-up the baht last year (much as did Putin) in the face of declining GDP growth but the economic floodgates couldn't hold back Thailand's collapsing economy.

I expect the baht to continue to slump another 5% going into Winter 2015 at which time Prayut has promised financial benefits from massive government investment stimulus to take effect. If his prediction proves incorrect, we might see another Winter of Discontent.

[lostoday]

the baht is overpriced anyway

how can you deflate the euro 20% in just one year ???

what does thailand have to offer except rice, hookers & tourism ?

One of the worlds largest manufactures or autos and hard drives maybe?

[lostoday]

The baht was at about 28.7 to the dollar in April of 2013. It's been falling ever since with a few bumps in the road. Today it's down about 5 baht over that time or 33.7 to the dollar. Link

I feel for people who transferred money to Thailand for the purpose of getting a couple more percent in interest. That didn't work out very well for a lot of people including some I know.

What part of Thailand would that have been? I can't remember getting more than 2 or 3 percent interest in the last five years in Thailand banks?

Edited June 5, 2015 by lostoday

[Naam]

It was a good thing for the Junta that the Yingluck regime built large US dollar cash reserves. These reserves resulted in part as a result of increased GDP growth. Prayut had been using it to artificially prop-up the baht last year (much as did Putin) in the face of declining GDP growth but the economic floodgates couldn't hold back Thailand's collapsing economy.

I expect the baht to continue to slump another 5% going into Winter 2015 at which time Prayut has promised financial benefits from massive government investment stimulus to take effect. If his prediction proves incorrect, we might see another Winter of Discontent.

accumulation of forex reserves started three years before Madame Yingluck came to power and is still going on though more moderately.

[Naam]

The baht was at about 28.7 to the dollar in April of 2013. It's been falling ever since with a few bumps in the road. Today it's down about 5 baht over that time or 33.7 to the dollar. Link

I feel for people who transferred money to Thailand for the purpose of getting a couple more percent in interest. That didn't work out very well for a lot of people including some I know.

What part of Thailand would that have been? I can't remember getting more than 2 or 3 percent interest in the last five years in Thailand banks?

that's "2 or 3 percent" more than the 0% i am getting in Dollars or EURos. NeverSure's "couple more percent interest" is therefore correct.

[lostoday]

The baht was at about 28.7 to the dollar in April of 2013. It's been falling ever since with a few bumps in the road. Today it's down about 5 baht over that time or 33.7 to the dollar. Link

I feel for people who transferred money to Thailand for the purpose of getting a couple more percent in interest. That didn't work out very well for a lot of people including some I know.

What part of Thailand would that have been? I can't remember getting more than 2 or 3 percent interest in the last five years in Thailand banks?

that's "2 or 3 percent" more than the 0% i am getting in Dollars or EURos. NeverSure's "couple more percent interest" is therefore correct.

Human beings transfer money to Thailand for the interest rates? Who you trying to kid?

[Naam]

The baht was at about 28.7 to the dollar in April of 2013. It's been falling ever since with a few bumps in the road. Today it's down about 5 baht over that time or 33.7 to the dollar. Link

I feel for people who transferred money to Thailand for the purpose of getting a couple more percent in interest. That didn't work out very well for a lot of people including some I know.

What part of Thailand would that have been? I can't remember getting more than 2 or 3 percent interest in the last five years in Thailand banks?

that's "2 or 3 percent" more than the 0% i am getting in Dollars or EURos. NeverSure's "couple more percent interest" is therefore correct.

Human beings transfer money to Thailand for the interest rates? Who you trying to kid?

a number of postings do indeed exist where TV-members mention they transferred money to Thailand to get some meagre interest.