Kra Canal to have huge security and social implications

[webfact]

CONTROVERSIAL PROJECT
Kra Canal to have huge security and social implications
NOPHAKHUN LIMSAMARNPHUN
THE NATION



THE long-proposed Kra Canal project has recently been given a new lease on life - again.

BANGKOK: -- On and off for decades, if not more than two centuries, the idea of digging a 1,200-kilometre shortcut for shipping between the Indian and Pacific oceans remains attractive, but implementation may still be another story.

The latest chapter in the Kra Canal epic came last month when Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, a proponent of the ambitious scheme when he was prime minister in the late 1990s, reportedly signed a Thai-Chinese deal to develop this project. However, Chavalit denied it.

The notion of creating a new sea lane that slashes shipping times between the Andaman Sea in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea in the Pacific Ocean has never lost its powerful magnetism. In fact, its potentially huge implications are not only in the economic realm, but also in the regional security and social spheres.

Supporters like Somjet Tinna-phong, managing director of Dawei Development Co of ITD Group, says he recently told a group of senior advisers at the Royal Thai Navy about the implications of the Dawei deep-sea port project in neighbouring Myanmar, where a land bridge is planned to link the Andaman Sea and Gulf of Thailand via Thailand's Kanchanaburi province and Eastern Seaboard.

"More recently, we heard the rumours about the Chinese-Thai plan to develop the Kra Canal scheme in southern Thailand [whose economic, political and other implications are likely to be more far-reaching].

"I told them that the strategic and security importance of such a linkage [as created by the Dawei port project] would significantly affect the balance of power in the region with implications as far as Indonesia or even West Australia."

"While the latest Kra Canal development has been dismissed as groundless at this stage, it still signifies the crucial power play in this part of the world, especially between the US and China.

"Most importantly, we've seen the US' strategic rebalancing in Southeast Asia with a prominent role in the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations, especially those with territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea - the Spratly islands for example."

"Now, I think the US is paying more attention to this region than elsewhere. They've already set up a base in Darwin, Australia, and this is all about a new balance of power [due to the rise of China].

"In the meantime, we've seen China's massive island reclamation in the Spratlies covering an area of 2,000 acres in the past 18 months.

"Besides the Pacific, control of the Indian Ocean is now very important and this is evidenced by the US' strategic shift in the past one to two years.

"If we take into account the Dawei port project in Myanmar, there would also be significant economic, social and security implications. For China, its southern region still has a limited exit to the sea, even though it currently uses a facility in Rakhine in Myanmar for oil transportation from the Middle East. Such a facility is not suitable for military or security purposes," he said.

Somjet, former governor of the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand, shares the opinion that the Kra Canal scheme will be more complicated and its scale of development larger.

In fact, the idea of cutting a piece of land in southern Thailand to create a sea lane or maritime linkage has been around for over 200 years.

"The logic is fine but moving it ahead will be an uphill task, as Thailand has to overcome significant negative factors before such an ambitious scheme could take off. From my perspective, the Kra Canal idea can either boost or hurt our national security," he said.

"It depends how we approach it or design our strategic security platform. If we could overcome the security challenge and turn it into an advantage, like setting up a naval base at the site, etc, that will be positive and huge economic as well as social benefits may follow for decades to come.

"Obviously, it's a significant shortcut of 1,200km for cargo ships that currently go through the Strait of Malacca in Singapore. Transportation of goods, oil and gas between the Indian and Pacific oceans will be more efficient.

"Looking forward, we could foresee the continued growth of cargo volumes between the two oceans in the decades to come, as Asia becomes a new growth engine of the global economy.

"The Kra Canal can be comparable to the sea lanes in the Panama and Suez canals, given the rise of China and East Asia on the global stage. And it could be seen as a missing link in China's grand design of so-called maritime Silk Road that will complement the highway and railway Silk Road linking modern China with the rest of Asia and Europe based on the historical Silk Road."

First part in a series on the Kra Canal saga.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Kra-Canal-to-have-huge-security-and-social-implica-30261841.html

-- The Nation 2015-06-08

[jaidam]

Q. How will we know if the Kra Canal is to become reality?

A. Land prices will skyrocket as all the insiders fill their boots with cheap land.

Q. Has such a project - a mega project with the sole aim of enriching the insiders by allowing them to purchase land at a value several thousand % below the estimated future 12 month value, ever come to fruition?

A.The Shin's Cobra swamp.

[IMA_FARANG]

Q. How will we know if the Kra Canal is to become reality?

A. Land prices will skyrocket as all the insiders fill their boots with cheap land.

Q. Has such a project - a mega project with the sole aim of enriching the insiders by allowing them to purchase land at a value several thousand % below the estimated future 12 month value, ever come to fruition?

A.The Shin's Cobra swamp.

I know what you mean by the Cobra Swamp, but I bet there are many "newbies" mean by that term.

Hint: AKA Swampy by some.

[Ricardo]

As a firm believer in doing things the cheaper way, I wonder whether it might be better to start off, with a port-rail-port fast-link across the isthmus ?

This would be less-expensive to construct, and would show whether the demand for the expensive Kra Canal is real, or not. It would also avoid the political problem of losing part of southern-Thailand to Malaysia, under that old treaty, with the British ?

One wonders why a link doesn't already exist, say Songkla & then by-truck to Satun (or Pak Bara ?), and onto ships again ?

Surely not because the brown-envelopes might be of a different order-of-magnitude, for the proposed Canal ?

Edited June 8, 2015 by Ricardo

[yankee99]

Seeing it takes 3 years to dig a <1 kilometer tunnel in pattaya this job would take over 100 years. Nothing to worry about in our lifetime.

[HerbalEd]

As a firm believer in doing things the cheaper way, I wonder whether it might be better to start off, with a port-rail-port fast-link across the isthmus ?

This would be less-expensive to construct, and would show whether the demand for the expensive Kra Canal is real, or not. It would also avoid the political problem of losing part of southern-Thailand to Malaysia, under that old treaty, with the British ?

One wonders why a link doesn't already exist, say Songkla & then by-truck to Satun (or Pak Bara ?), and onto ships again ?

Surely not because the brown-envelopes might be of a different order-of-magnitude, for the proposed Canal ?

You mean unload a ship's entire cargo on one side ... then train it overland for a few hours ... and then load it all back onto a different ship??? I doubt many would do that.

Edited June 8, 2015 by HerbalEd

[Estrada]

Q. How will we know if the Kra Canal is to become reality?

A. Land prices will skyrocket as all the insiders fill their boots with cheap land.

Q. Has such a project - a mega project with the sole aim of enriching the insiders by allowing them to purchase land at a value several thousand % below the estimated future 12 month value, ever come to fruition?

A.The Shin's Cobra swamp.

Cobra Swamp was not the Shins, it was Banharn and Suwat Liptapanlop. The NBIA was formed under General Chavalit's Government in 1996. The reclamation of Cobra Swamp was commenced in 1997 and took 5 years to complete. it has nothing to do with the Shinawatras. In fact the DSI prosecuted Banharn and Suwat's Company that bought the land from the shrimp farmers and eventually their company was fined the max fine under Thai Law of B6,000! in connection with the purchase.

The construction of the Airport was proposed in 1973 and cancelled and postponed by various Governments. At least Thaksin got the Airport constructed and opened

Edited June 8, 2015 by Estrada

[jaidam]

Q. How will we know if the Kra Canal is to become reality?

A. Land prices will skyrocket as all the insiders fill their boots with cheap land.

Q. Has such a project - a mega project with the sole aim of enriching the insiders by allowing them to purchase land at a value several thousand % below the estimated future 12 month value, ever come to fruition?

A.The Shin's Cobra swamp.

Cobra Swamp was not the Shins, it was Vattana Asavahame aided by Banharn and Suwat Liptapanlop. The NBIA was formed under General Chavalit's Government in 1996. The reclamation of Cobra Swamp was commenced in 1997 and took 5 years to complete. it has nothing to do with the Shinawatras. In fact the DSI prosecuted Banharn and Suwat's Company that bought the land from the shrimp farmers and eventually their company was fined the max fine under Thai Law of B6,000! in connection with the purchase. Vattana Asavahame skipped bail and is on the run, although I have it on good authority, that he is often at home in Samutprakarn.

The construction of the Airport was proposed in 1973 and cancelled and postponed by various Governments. At least Thaksin got the Airport constructed and opened

Nice try, but the major land value increase happened when it was reality that Swampy would be opening as the Bangkok international airport. Nobody is disputing the project was started decades ago but fizzled out- no opportunities for the poster boy of corruption when it's a stagnant project now is it? Sorry you do not remember the brouhaha surrounding the Shins land purchases in cobra swamp, but I do.

[swifty5x5]

As a firm believer in doing things the cheaper way, I wonder whether it might be better to start off, with a port-rail-port fast-link across the isthmus ?

This would be less-expensive to construct, and would show whether the demand for the expensive Kra Canal is real, or not. It would also avoid the political problem of losing part of southern-Thailand to Malaysia, under that old treaty, with the British ?

One wonders why a link doesn't already exist, say Songkla & then by-truck to Satun (or Pak Bara ?), and onto ships again ?

Surely not because the brown-envelopes might be of a different order-of-magnitude, for the proposed Canal ?

That is a bad idea. Unload a ship then reload on a train then unload the train and reload a ship. This would take longer and more expensive than going around.

Edited June 8, 2015 by swifty5x5

[manarak]

Q. How will we know if the Kra Canal is to become reality?

A. Land prices will skyrocket as all the insiders fill their boots with cheap land.

Q. Has such a project - a mega project with the sole aim of enriching the insiders by allowing them to purchase land at a value several thousand % below the estimated future 12 month value, ever come to fruition?

A.The Shin's Cobra swamp.

Is there a concise term to describe resentful socialo-anarchist underdog-fans ?

[OnTheRun]

As a firm believer in doing things the cheaper way, I wonder whether it might be better to start off, with a port-rail-port fast-link across the isthmus ?

This would be less-expensive to construct, and would show whether the demand for the expensive Kra Canal is real, or not. It would also avoid the political problem of losing part of southern-Thailand to Malaysia, under that old treaty, with the British ?

One wonders why a link doesn't already exist, say Songkla & then by-truck to Satun (or Pak Bara ?), and onto ships again ?

Surely not because the brown-envelopes might be of a different order-of-magnitude, for the proposed Canal ?

You mean unload a ship's entire cargo on one side ... then train it overland for a few hours ... and then load it all back onto a different ship??? I doubt many would do that.

Yes, it's called a land bridge. This was already started years ago with construction of route 44 with the aim of linking a port near Surit Thani with a port in the Krabi area. Anyone ever drove route 44 and wondered why the 2 carriageways are so far apart? This was done as rail and pipeline links were proposed to be built in between. The project, like so many in the country, never came to fruition. A land bridge, or a canal for that matter, would be an absolute disaster for the port of Singapore. Draw from that what you like.

[swifty5x5]

As a firm believer in doing things the cheaper way, I wonder whether it might be better to start off, with a port-rail-port fast-link across the isthmus ?

This would be less-expensive to construct, and would show whether the demand for the expensive Kra Canal is real, or not. It would also avoid the political problem of losing part of southern-Thailand to Malaysia, under that old treaty, with the British ?

One wonders why a link doesn't already exist, say Songkla & then by-truck to Satun (or Pak Bara ?), and onto ships again ?

Surely not because the brown-envelopes might be of a different order-of-magnitude, for the proposed Canal ?

You mean unload a ship's entire cargo on one side ... then train it overland for a few hours ... and then load it all back onto a different ship??? I doubt many would do that.

Yes, it's called a land bridge. This was already started years ago with construction of route 44 with the aim of linking a port near Surit Thani with a port in the Krabi area. Anyone ever drove route 44 and wondered why the 2 carriageways are so far apart? This was done as rail and pipeline links were proposed to be built in between. The project, like so many in the country, never came to fruition. A land bridge, or a canal for that matter, would be an absolute disaster for the port of Singapore. Draw from that what you like.

I don't care what you call it. Container ships carry about 16,000 containers and long trains about 200 containers so 1 container ship 80 trains. There is no way this is a good idea.

[torpedo1970]

"Obviously, it's a significant shortcut of 1,200km for cargo ships that currently go through the Strait of Malacca in Singapore

Hmmm, looking at the map, it does not seem like it is a huge short cut, compared to Suez and the other one....

it just say significant, what are we talking weeks, days or hours?

to me this sounds a little blown out of proportions, is there really a need or is it made up by those receiving brown envelopes or trying to make some quick bucks on land

most likely as everything else in Thailand, this is a smokescreen for something else.........

[Sydebolle]

Seeing it takes 3 years to dig a <1 kilometer tunnel in pattaya this job would take over 100 years. Nothing to worry about in our lifetime.

Note; its an open pit and not a tunnel - thank the Lord. A tunnel would take 30 years but by then the boys-on-the-take are out of office.

If a Thai-Belgium bridge concept (finalised in 1987 in Bangkok at the Rama IV-Sathorn intersection) cannot be conveyed with a longer bridge in Pattaya then the mind can only boggle on what the brains-to-be will come up with digging a channel across the peninsula.

It will happen; eventually, paid for by the Chinese who will whistle the (Thai) boys back into line; see the mega projects they are working on in Laos with a USD 2.8 billion rail track, the Hongsa power plant which went onto the grid this month etc. etc.

It takes more than some corrupt Thai clowns to get things really done and hence I suggest to put Chavalit back into the dinosaur closet where he belongs.

[BuaBS]

"""The Kra Canal can be comparable to the sea lanes in the Panama and Suez canals""

What a joke comparing a small detour of 1200 km with an enormous way around South America & Africa !

[rametindallas]

As a firm believer in doing things the cheaper way, I wonder whether it might be better to start off, with a port-rail-port fast-link across the isthmus ?

This would be less-expensive to construct, and would show whether the demand for the expensive Kra Canal is real, or not. It would also avoid the political problem of losing part of southern-Thailand to Malaysia, under that old treaty, with the British ?

One wonders why a link doesn't already exist, say Songkla & then by-truck to Satun (or Pak Bara ?), and onto ships again ?

Surely not because the brown-envelopes might be of a different order-of-magnitude, for the proposed Canal ?

You want a cheap canal? The Japanese have a plan; A Japanese plan for a canal in 1985 would have used over twenty nuclear devices each roughly twice the explosive energy of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_Canal

Thailand has already partially built a highway system to transport containers across the Isthmus though construction is stalled for now.

Edited June 8, 2015 by rametindallas

[Ricardo]

As a firm believer in doing things the cheaper way, I wonder whether it might be better to start off, with a port-rail-port fast-link across the isthmus ?

This would be less-expensive to construct, and would show whether the demand for the expensive Kra Canal is real, or not. It would also avoid the political problem of losing part of southern-Thailand to Malaysia, under that old treaty, with the British ?

One wonders why a link doesn't already exist, say Songkla & then by-truck to Satun (or Pak Bara ?), and onto ships again ?

Surely not because the brown-envelopes might be of a different order-of-magnitude, for the proposed Canal ?

You mean unload a ship's entire cargo on one side ... then train it overland for a few hours ... and then load it all back onto a different ship??? I doubt many would do that.

Yes, it's called a land bridge. This was already started years ago with construction of route 44 with the aim of linking a port near Surit Thani with a port in the Krabi area. Anyone ever drove route 44 and wondered why the 2 carriageways are so far apart? This was done as rail and pipeline links were proposed to be built in between. The project, like so many in the country, never came to fruition. A land bridge, or a canal for that matter, would be an absolute disaster for the port of Singapore. Draw from that what you like.

I don't care what you call it. Container ships carry about 16,000 containers and long trains about 200 containers so 1 container ship 80 trains. There is no way this is a good idea.

An efficiently-operated land-bridge, perhaps run by/with the help/expertise of the Port of Singapore, would be required. And their commercial involvement might ease their objection to this route bypassing Singapore itself ?

I understand that in the USA container-trains a couple-of-miles long, with containers stacked two-high, are common these days ?

And as I understand it, the only possible justification for the Canal-idea, is that the Straits-of-Molucca sea-route is close to its physical capacity, so an alternative-route has to be found ? Then ideas like a (surely cheaper) land-bridge or sea-to-sea canal must be contemplated.

The relative delay of a land-bridge, or indeed the very-expensive Canal, would only be justified by the current longer sea-route being totally full, IMO.

[CMfoodie]

Is this news or an idiotorial?

Nothing confirmed, just denials and speculations?

Kra Canal to have huge security and social implications

"to have" should read "could have"

[AleG]

Yes, it's called a land bridge. This was already started years ago with construction of route 44 with the aim of linking a port near Surit Thani with a port in the Krabi area. Anyone ever drove route 44 and wondered why the 2 carriageways are so far apart? This was done as rail and pipeline links were proposed to be built in between. The project, like so many in the country, never came to fruition. A land bridge, or a canal for that matter, would be an absolute disaster for the port of Singapore. Draw from that what you like.

I don't care what you call it. Container ships carry about 16,000 containers and long trains about 200 containers so 1 container ship 80 trains. There is no way this is a good idea.

16.000 containers one after the other (20ft.) would have a length of about 96 kilometers, the isthmus is 44km wide, so doesn't sound very feasible. Besides that the costs of loading, transportation and reloading would probably be much higher than just going around the isthmus. A cargo ship can cover that distance in a day and a half or less (they'd probably floor it going through the notoriously pirate infested Malacca Strait).

[Oziex1]

Is there any real practical use for this or is it just a massive budget ripe for the picking?

[mike324]

"Obviously, it's a significant shortcut of 1,200km for cargo ships that currently go through the Strait of Malacca in Singapore

Hmmm, looking at the map, it does not seem like it is a huge short cut, compared to Suez and the other one....

it just say significant, what are we talking weeks, days or hours?

to me this sounds a little blown out of proportions, is there really a need or is it made up by those receiving brown envelopes or trying to make some quick bucks on land

most likely as everything else in Thailand, this is a smokescreen for something else.........

It would save slightly over 2 days of sailing time. In the past few years container ships have adopted to sail at an even slower speed to reduce emissions and save more money on oil. I read that ships sail at around 22km/hr nowadays. So with the industry trying to save as much as possible, 2 days is a big difference as there are not many ways they can cut costs, so a new route would be very attractive.

2 days may not sound a lot but if you add up the oil saving, reduce emissions, and the fact that they can ship more in less time, it adds up to savings of millions per year if you have a large fleet of ship.

So no its not blown out of proportion and a smokescreen. Its attractive because big money can be made and people will use the canal if its well managed.

Its just like saying if a government plans on building a road that can cut down your drive by even 30minutes, won't you find it an attractive proposition? Heck even a 10 minute shorter drive many people will use it.

[NanLaew]

"""The Kra Canal can be comparable to the sea lanes in the Panama and Suez canals""

What a joke comparing a small detour of 1200 km with an enormous way around South America & Africa !

You got that right. Presumptuous buggers aren't they?

The only benefit I can see is a new and very practical Thai-Malaysia border and all the monk-murdering, teacher-bombing separatists of a different cloth can stay in their southern sh!thole and become totally UMNO's problem.

[AlQaholic]

This project pops up every now and then when somebody high up in the Government needs a substantial contribution from Singapore for his retirement plans.....

[Artisi]

As a firm believer in doing things the cheaper way, I wonder whether it might be better to start off, with a port-rail-port fast-link across the isthmus ?

This would be less-expensive to construct, and would show whether the demand for the expensive Kra Canal is real, or not. It would also avoid the political problem of losing part of southern-Thailand to Malaysia, under that old treaty, with the British ?

One wonders why a link doesn't already exist, say Songkla & then by-truck to Satun (or Pak Bara ?), and onto ships again ?

Surely not because the brown-envelopes might be of a different order-of-magnitude, for the proposed Canal ?

You mean unload a ship's entire cargo on one side ... then train it overland for a few hours ... and then load it all back onto a different ship??? I doubt many would do that.

Yes, it's called a land bridge. This was already started years ago with construction of route 44 with the aim of linking a port near Surit Thani with a port in the Krabi area. Anyone ever drove route 44 and wondered why the 2 carriageways are so far apart? This was done as rail and pipeline links were proposed to be built in between. The project, like so many in the country, never came to fruition. A land bridge, or a canal for that matter, would be an absolute disaster for the port of Singapore. Draw from that what you like.

I don't care what you call it. Container ships carry about 16,000 containers and long trains about 200 containers so 1 container ship 80 trains. There is no way this is a good idea.

Can you just imagine, 80 trains running late, derailed or otherwise out of operation with nobody really sure when everything will be back on schedule.

[Tywais]

Was curious about the 'savings' in travel time. Cargo ships average 23kts (42kms/hour). Lets just say 20kts (37km/hr) for slow steaming. That's about 32 hours savings for 1200km. So how long to pass through the locks plus probably having to queue their turn? Plus, do they have to pass through immigration. Can't see much savings in time but in fuel usage.

[maderaroja]

Okay. So, everybody grab a bucket and carry away one bucket of sand. Take it home for a souvenir.

[monspencer]

Seeing it takes 3 years to dig a <1 kilometer tunnel in pattaya this job would take over 100 years. Nothing to worry about in our lifetime.

3 years is what "they" tell us it will take. Probably 5 years more likely. In which case this canal will take maybe 200 years

[animatic]

If a transit fee of 1/4 of the fuel costs per ship using the 1,200 km alternate route were coupled to the 60 hours of time saved this would easily make it viable. Thinking shipping fuel terms are TONs of fuel per day... This is not inconsequential.

Add in a slow steam at 20 knots is 60 hours or 3 days .

"...a containership of around 8,000 TEU would consume about 225 tons of bunker fuel per day at 24 knots, at 21 knots this consumption drops to about 150 tons per day..."

Or for 2008 fuel rates

" ...To illustrate the effect of the rising fuel costs, consider the following example of a large modern container vessel used in the Trans-Pacific trade with an actual, maximum container capacity of 7,750 TEUs (twenty foot equivalents) or 3,875 FEUs (forty foot equivalents).1 With the cost of bunker fuel at $552 per ton, with fuel consumption at 217 tons per day, a single 28-day round trip voyage for this one vessel would produce a fuel bill of $3,353,952. This number could be greater for a number of reasons, such as if the voyage were more than 14 days, or if the vessel were smaller and less fuel efficient per container, or if schedule delays required the vessel to speed up to stay on schedule.... "

Roughly:

3,500,000 divided by 28 days = * X 3 days divided by 4 =

about $93,000us a day charge per ship of this size.

50 ships a day .... Think about it.

2,906,250 baht per ship is about 145,000,000 per day

10 days 1,450,000,000 baht....

It pretty obvious Thailand as canal owner operator would make serious fees 24/7 /365 of ships wishing to shave 3+ days of fuel cost off their round trips. Even queuing off the canal for part of a day waiting would still be minimal fuel coated to slow steaming.

If the canal is large enough to be bi-directional the fees double, certainly enough to make a fuel bunkering facility to make the wait more profitable and to pay for Navel installations on BOTH sides to mollify security winks concerns.

http://www.people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch8en/conc8en/fuel_consumption_containerships.html

Edited June 8, 2015 by animatic

[JAG]

Q. How will we know if the Kra Canal is to become reality?

A. Land prices will skyrocket as all the insiders fill their boots with cheap land.

Q. Has such a project - a mega project with the sole aim of enriching the insiders by allowing them to purchase land at a value several thousand % below the estimated future 12 month value, ever come to fruition?

A.The Shin's Cobra swamp.

Golly, first post in response, 13 minutes after the OP, and 05.59 in the morning and you manage to turn it into a comment on Thaksin.

That really is quite an achievement!

Tell me, do you sit up all night, poised to get in the next blow?

[jaidam]

Just think, had it not been for the rice scam - that benefitted nobody other than the Shin aligned millers and transport companies, this canal could have been paid in cash, giving benefits for centuries into the future. Incredible that some think of the feudal Shinawatras as progressives!