Experts split over subs plan

[Lite Beer]

BT36 BILLION PROCUREMENT?
Experts split over subs plan
WASAMON AUDJARINT
THE NATION July 4, 2015 1:00 am

BANGKOK: -- MANY BELIEVE THAILAND DOES NOT HAVE MARITIME ISSUES TO WARRANT BIG SPENDING ON SUBMARINES

SOME SECURITY experts have questioned the prudence of the Navy's proposal to purchase three Yuan-class submarines from China for Bt36 billion, asking whether Thailand needs such sophisticated defence equipment.

While Panitan Wattana-yagorn, a security adviser to Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, defended the move, saying maritime threats were increasing for Thailand and would rise in the future, other academics such as Surachart Bamrungsuk, an expert in security affairs from Chulalongkorn University, said the submarines were not key acquisitions when dealing with the country's security concerns.

Panitan said: "It is necessary now for Thailand to have submarines, as we need to handle increasing and possible traditional maritime threats, like maritime territorial issues.

"Some non-traditional maritime threats, such as shipping route safety, can be achieved by submarine operation, too," he argued.

"After World War II and during the Cold War, Thailand focused on land security rather than the sea, in order to cope with land strategies of the then-great powers. But now regional contexts are changing, so we need to adjust ourselves accordingly," he said.

However, Surachart told the BBC Thai service: "We do not have direct maritime security issues, or a geographical necessity, like our neighbouring maritime states do.

"It is true that we have an unclear maritime boundary with neighbouring countries and there might be some maritime resources to protect, but submarines might not be the best solution for that matter," he said.

Some new maritime threats like terrorism, disaster management and plague control could be better managed by surface ships, he said.

"The Bt36 billion sought for buying the submarines could affect further development of the Thai naval force because if the purchase is approved, further budgets would go toward the submarine project," Surachart said.

Meanwhile, Panitan said funding to be used is a part of the military budget, distributed by the Cabinet on a standard basis. So this proportion had nothing to do with other economic affairs.

"On the other hand, if managed wisely, the submarine purchase could even help lift technical knowledge of Thai human resources, considering the advanced technology equipped in the Chinese submarines. And developing labour skills will be, indeed, beneficial to the Thai economy," he said.

Pipob Udomittipong, former editor of Pacarayasara alternative magazine, noted that the purchase is extravagant.

"The deepest part of the Thai Gulf is just 80 metres, which makes it impossible for submarines to completely hide themselves from detection. We also don't have any disputes in the west coast of the Andaman Sea. So, what do we need submarines for?

"To enhance maritime security, the Navy should rather invest in anti-submarine warfare. This would be more suitable in the Thai context, because of the shallow sea and possible submarine intrusion from other countries," he said.

"And even if other Asean countries have their own submarines, it doesn't mean Thailand should also have them," he said.

Pipob also discussed why Thailand preferred Chinese subs to other tech-savvy countries like Germany or Sweden, saying "the European Union has not favoured our current military government. So, it could be quite inconvenient for Thailand to deal with them".

Wanwichit Boonprong, an expert in security affairs from Rangsit University, insisted that submarines were necessary for Thailand.

"It is obvious that we are struggling with illegal fishing vessel issues, and surface sur

veillance ships alone may not be enough anymore," he said. "Thailand will be able to enhance its naval capability by obtaining submarines, with China's help in further training and mechanical maintenance," he said.

Wanwichit said it was worth it for Thailand to have submarines, citing that HTMS Chakri Naruebet played a key role in relief operations after a flood disaster in southern Thailand. "Owning submarines is not only about warfare and offence, it is also about balance of military power, especially when our surrounding countries have their own ones," he said.

The Navy has long dreamt of having submarines after its fleet was decommissioned after World War II.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Experts-split-over-subs-plan-30263740.html

-- The Nation 2015-07-04

[Somtamnication]

Simple decision: Sink or not sink, krap.

[Nigeone]

I said in another OP that this is only going to end one way! And it's not a good one..a complicated bit of kit a submarine and I somehow think if they ever manage to work out how they work they sure as hell won't manage to keep them working..no a disaster waiting to happen...and I really hope no lives are lost in the 'experiment'.

[HeijoshinCool]

No need to buy one, many of their passenger ferries become submarines.

[Manbing]

Military government, economic crisis looming...

Solution - Spend 36 Billion BHT on stuff the country doesn't need.

Is this the rational decision of a responsible government - is there an underwater war looming we haven't heard about?

[jerojero]

Total waste of taxpayers money. Submarines are not needed. Stupidity.

[h90]

Military government, economic crisis looming...

Solution - Spend 36 Billion BHT on stuff the country doesn't need.

Is this the rational decision of a responsible government - is there an underwater war looming we haven't heard about?

3-5 % of the money lost in the rice scam......

[oneday]

Toy subs for tin soldiers.

Think how much good 36B baht would do for the poor people of Thailand.

[rametindallas]

This is not needed from an objective economic or military viewpoint. One could buy a fleet of fast, modern, cheap and easy to maintain, frigates for what these submarines will cost and frigates will do every job the sub could do and better. The only people who are for this wasteful program are those who have been included in the scam and stand to personally benefit. As for developing job skills, the reasons given for buying submarines get more ludicrous by the day. They are totally grasping at straws.

I can't believe the Army will let the Navy spend that much money without the Army spending ten times as much so, if the submarines are purchased, look for a huge shopping trip by the Army. If this thing is allowed, it will be a(nother) sad day for Thailand.

Thailand - The Hub of Greed.

.

[rametindallas]

Military government, economic crisis looming...

Solution - Spend 36 Billion BHT on stuff the country doesn't need.

Is this the rational decision of a responsible government - is there an underwater war looming we haven't heard about?

3-5 % of the money lost in the rice scam......

So, because the previous government wasted money it is OK to waste another 36 billion Baht? Even if it were 1% of the Rice Scheme losses, it is not justified by anything the Admirals, or their paid mouthpieces, have said.

.

[dageurreotype]

Panitan said: "It is necessary now for Thailand to have submarines, as we need to handle increasing and possible traditional maritime threats, like maritime territorial issues.

The current 'maritime territorial issues' appear to be coming from the source they intend to buy these ridiculous subs from.

[Nigeone]

This is not needed from an objective economic or military viewpoint. One could buy a fleet of fast, modern, cheap and easy to maintain, frigates for what these submarines will cost and frigates will do every job the sub could do and better. The only people who are for this wasteful program are those who have been included in the scam and stand to personally benefit. As for developing job skills, the reasons given for buying submarines get more ludicrous by the day. They are totally grasping at straws.

I can't believe the Army will let the Navy spend that much money without the Army spending ten times as much so, if the submarines are purchased, look for a huge shopping trip by the Army. If this thing is allowed, it will be a(nother) sad day for Thailand.

I agree..6/8 surface craft which would adaptable and far easier to manage and keep in service against 3 high tech subs...there going to get them though aren't they and yes your right the army will be making there list as we speak and the air force might be looking at some planes when you think of it..it's going to be a mess and in so many ways..A friend made this..do you think I could do a deal with them..only 20million baht one careful owner and a guarantee of 1 month.!!

Thailand - The Hub of Greed.

.

[Just1Voice]

Forest Gump said it best: "Stupid is as stupid does."

[Nigeone]

I agree..6/8 surface craft which would adaptable and far easier to manage and keep in service against 3 high tech subs...there going to get them though aren't they and yes your right the army will be making there list as we speak and the air force might be looking at some planes when you think of it..it's going to be a mess and in so many ways..A friend made this..do you think I could do a deal with them..only 20 million baht one careful owner and a guarantee of1 month

Edited July 4, 2015 by Nigeone

[h90]

Military government, economic crisis looming...

Solution - Spend 36 Billion BHT on stuff the country doesn't need.

Is this the rational decision of a responsible government - is there an underwater war looming we haven't heard about?

3-5 % of the money lost in the rice scam......

So, because the previous government wasted money it is OK to waste another 36 billion Baht? Even if it were 1% of the Rice Scheme losses, it is not justified by anything the Admirals, or their paid mouthpieces, have said.

.

it means that it is a relative small amount of money. I can't judge if the submarines are needed, 36 billion is still a lot money.

[boomerangutang]

Just from reading the headline, I can tell where the two sides are 'split.'

One group is sensible and realistic and perhaps also thrifty, and they argue against the sub purchases.

the other group is military brass - who are jealous when seeing neighboring countries amassing subs. and some of those Thai top brass sub boosters may also be positioned in the pipeline to get kick-backs. ....and they're all China lovers. Either that, or easily dazzled by Chinese sales pitches.

I just heard an interview by a farang who went to buy a car in Shanghai. The Chinese car salesman was a nut. He would touch the buyer on parts of his body, he would beg for contracts to be signed ("buyer loses deposit of $500 if buyer makes no decision to purchase in two days"). The salesman even cried real tears in one part of the negotiation - so eager was he in making a sale.

Are the Thai officials who are testing the viability of the subs - the same officials who approved buying the many $33,000 black plastic boxes which did nothing? Incidentally, Thailand and Mexico are the only two countries which kept buying the useless little boxes - months/years after all other countries realized they were a scam.

[davehowden]

So they plan to buy submarines from the major potential maritime threat in Asia?

Last time they bought them from Japan and shortly after were invaded by the Japs.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"

[h90]

Just from reading the headline, I can tell where the two sides are 'split.'

One group is sensible and realistic and perhaps also thrifty, and they argue against the sub purchases.

the other group is military brass - who are jealous when seeing neighboring countries amassing subs. and some of those Thai top brass sub boosters may also be positioned in the pipeline to get kick-backs. ....and they're all China lovers. Either that, or easily dazzled by Chinese sales pitches.

I just heard an interview by a farang who went to buy a car in Shanghai. The Chinese car salesman was a nut. He would touch the buyer on parts of his body, he would beg for contracts to be signed ("buyer loses deposit of $500 if buyer makes no decision to purchase in two days"). The salesman even cried real tears in one part of the negotiation - so eager was he in making a sale.

Are the Thai officials who are testing the viability of the subs - the same officials who approved buying the many $33,000 black plastic boxes which did nothing? Incidentally, Thailand and Mexico are the only two countries which kept buying the useless little boxes - months/years after all other countries realized they were a scam.

Well defense tools are never needed until it is too late. The best thing that can happen is to buy weapons just to dismantel them 20 years later. With the big coast Thailand needs a strong Navy and maybe Subs. But they don't need the aircraft carrier....

[Alex Sharp]

CHINA 67 - the rest 64 ( 67 incl Thailands 3 in 2022).......very impressive China.

[BSJ]

It's just unbelievable stupid that submarines are even being considered.

[Nigeone]

Just from reading the headline, I can tell where the two sides are 'split.'

One group is sensible and realistic and perhaps also thrifty, and they argue against the sub purchases.

the other group is military brass - who are jealous when seeing neighboring countries amassing subs. and some of those Thai top brass sub boosters may also be positioned in the pipeline to get kick-backs. ....and they're all China lovers. Either that, or easily dazzled by Chinese sales pitches.

I just heard an interview by a farang who went to buy a car in Shanghai. The Chinese car salesman was a nut. He would touch the buyer on parts of his body, he would beg for contracts to be signed ("buyer loses deposit of $500 if buyer makes no decision to purchase in two days"). The salesman even cried real tears in one part of the negotiation - so eager was he in making a sale.

Are the Thai officials who are testing the viability of the subs - the same officials who approved buying the many $33,000 black plastic boxes which did nothing? Incidentally, Thailand and Mexico are the only two countries which kept buying the useless little boxes - months/years after all other countries realized they were a scam.

Well defense tools are never needed until it is too late. The best thing that can happen is to buy weapons just to dismantel them 20 years later. With the big coast Thailand needs a strong Navy and maybe Subs. But they don't need the aircraft carrier....

I would actually make more of a case for the aircraft carrier than the subs...they really really are not easy to operate and maintain and for sure not going to be functional because of water depth and the lack of threat to them..the only threat would be from China and there buying from them.I think China has 60 plus subs and know how to use and maintain..there's only going to be one winner in that fight ! And it's not Thailand..mind you the Aircraft carries as it stands is a white elephant isn't it...park them all up with the bomb detectors the air ships the Chinese tanks and leave some room for the Aircraft carrier and non serviceable planes purchased with it and the space for the three subs...a mighty scrap yard !!

[khunianb]

It is hard to believe that some of the 'experts' arguing for a purchase have ever studied anything.

The ridiculous idea that submarines will be useful against illegal fishing! Going to get caught in their nets? And suggesting that the aircraft carrier was a good purchase denies reality. The aircraft carrier can't operate and was an expensive waste.

But this is Thailand and anything can happen because logic doesn't matter - just payoffs.

[FireMedic]

I wonder what Thailand would look like if they took care of the infrastructure with all this extra money they have.

[puck2]

Wasted money.

Submarines for Thailand are as useful as camels for the Eskimos.

Edited July 4, 2015 by puck2

[Mot Dang]

How long are these Chinese submarines expected to be in service once purchased ? Seriously. And a question for someone more familiar with the finer points of SAE politics than I, which neighbor could be a threat to Thailand, within the use-by dates for these submarines ? Indonesia, Vietnam ? Cant imagine Singapore rattling sabers. Possibly China, if Thailand gets the smarts and refuses to take more Chinese tourists', or sell Lanna to them.

To me this seems just like toys for boys, or China wants Thailand secure in it's back pocket, and thinking less of Uncle Sam.

[brucec64]

Military government, economic crisis looming...

Solution - Spend 36 Billion BHT on stuff the country doesn't need.

Is this the rational decision of a responsible government - is there an underwater war looming we haven't heard about?

3-5 % of the money lost in the rice scam......

Ridiculous comment. Are you saying that any irresponsible government spending in the future can be justified by its percentage of cost to the rice program?

The proper sequence should be followed:

1. Think

2. Post

Not the other way around.

[Thaddeus]

BANGKOK: -- MANY BELIEVE THAILAND DOES NOT HAVE MARITIME ISSUES TO WARRANT BIG SPENDING ON SUBMARINES

May as well ask why Thailand has any military forces at all, first sign of danger, they run away or capitulate.

It's just money going in to unworthy pockets, nothing more.

[Toknarok]

Military government, economic crisis looming...

Solution - Spend 36 Billion BHT on stuff the country doesn't need.

Is this the rational decision of a responsible government - is there an underwater war looming we haven't heard about?

3-5 % of the money lost in the rice scam......

Whilst the actual cost of the subs maybe only 5% of what was spent on the rice scheme, that is only the official purchase price. Add to this the cost of the submarine depot (already built but with no subs), the cost of training crews, maintenance, running costs and repairs etc the figure will be substantially higher.

What is the projected life of a submarine 20 years? By the time they are due to be scrapped I wouldn't be surprised if the total cost for these completely unnecessary bits of equipment doesn't exceed what the rice scheme cost.

[eliotness]

Toy subs for tin soldiers.

Think how much good 36B baht would do for the poor people of Thailand.

Or "big boys toys".

Someone mentioned the other day about the cost of building a support base for these subs and what about training of crews and the maintenance and repair of the vessels. I would therefore suggest that the actual cost will be much much higher than 36 billion Baht.

[BarnicaleBob]

The Thai Navy would get a lot more for their investment if they purchased Littoral Combat Ships which are capable of doing at least three times more things than any sub and do them much better. They are equipped with helicopters, have very strong anti-submarine capabilities, anti-ship capabilities, anti-aircraft capabilities, ability to operate in shallow waters, launching assault boats for combat or rescue operations, can cover and patrol a much larger area than any sub, and two of these LCS ships would cost a little less than three of the Chinese subs but cover a much wider Spence of sea.