Bangkok is sinking into the Earth

[jadee]

Just to balance things out, today the Independent reported here that solar scientists believe there will be a mini ice age in 15 years. If this is true, the climate will be somewhat more temperate. There is also a plan for a Chinese firm to build a canal through the south of Thailand. So if a $3 billion seawall is all that's necessary to protect the capital as the article states (half of GDP), then Thailand's GDP may be higher in the future and the wall would be more affordable.

[mahjongguy]

Happily, Thailand's GDP is quite a bit more than $6 billion. For last year it was just under $380 billion.

[mathias67]

So basiclly your advice is----- if buying a condo, make sure its on a higher floor....................

So buy a condo now on the 15th floor and by 2030 you will be on the 4th floor if you are lucky

[Soutpeel]

And the all knowing farangs on TV were highly critical of the military wanting to buy submarines, seems to me they are ahead of the game

Edited July 13, 2015 by Soutpeel

[rick44]

This obviously needs to be spelled out: The American journalist who wrote this story converted mm to inches wrong and made Bangkok sink ten times faster than the research quoted in Bangkok Post proposed...

Dag Ekeberg, journalist

[momtaz]

so, holding a property in Bangkok is a losy deal in the coming years? isn't it?

[Eric Loh]

Does anyone with any real sense actually give a damn?

Actually someone did. Not just idea but actually a blueprint to build satellite cities in the province of Nakhon Nayok. Modeled along the line of Tama district to the west of Tokyo. Connected with roads and rails and incentives thrown in for Bangkokians to move out. Low property prices, tax breaks with facilities like schools, hospital etc. Pity the '06 coup stopped this project in his track and we continue to sink.

[Tonawatchee]

The govt. should nix the submarine purchases and invest in Water Wings for the public which the Thai Navy should distribute.

[peter267]

Because of the sinking problem, Bangkok has imposed strict limits on pumping out groundwater. Naturally, those limits are mostly ignored and that is embarrassing so it's easier for the BMA to talk about the weight of buildings.

Sure enough 'artesian' is often misused in relation to groundwater abstraction from boreholes. Most geological formations that have water stored in bit of them that comprise of layers of permeable material in which water can be stored and flows through as example sands and gravels and impermeable layers like clay. It often occurs that a water saturated sand and gravel layer overlain with clay will hold down or smother the free rise of water through it - so when a borehole drills through the clay later it will release the water pressure and the water column will rise to rest nearer to the surface. To take the excitement out of misunderstanding it is common to use the words - 'sub artesian' to describe water that will rise from its storage level but not free flow at surface or 'flowing artesian' which is a well with sufficient head to free flow at surface.

Most boreholes in Bangkok are sub artesian. It is accepted decades of removing water from underneath faster than it is replaced by natural recharge - has created space - that creates the sinkage. Not an easy problem to fix - with most years, the rainwater that falls upland - is dam'ed and corralled to create the huge irrigation schemes that keep Thailand a viable rice producer. It is restricted from seeping back to recharge the underground storage aquifers. Quick fix in Bangkok has been to pile down deep into formation firm enough to support the weight of construction above. There has been a near moratorium on new water abstractions in Bangkok last 20 years

Before chastising the Thai's too much for getting into this situation - London during the 1800's has managed to significantly bugger up the Thames river basin - The fountain in Trafalgar Square used to originally be a flowing artesian well, it is said, again over abstraction through years lowered the water table under London to the point seawater was drawn in through the underlying chalk limestone and effectively polluting the fresh water source which of course largely stopped the abstractions. In the intervening years of having a artificially low water table London developed its tube train system, deep fibre optic tunnels and high rise building with deep basements and these are now under threat from being flooded by the rapidly rising water table - and will require massive pumping to maintain an equilibrium. Indeed most 'developed' countries have their own ground water disasters in the background. A truly universal man made problem to be solved.

Hmm should the Thai government sue the UN - FAO as being the people that recommended the rapid development of the Thai Chao Phraya river basin as a valuable rice producer to alleviate world hunger post 2nd World War? Surely those 'experts' have a case to answer?

[Muhendis]

So basiclly your advice is----- if buying a condo, make sure its on a higher floor....................

And has mooring facilities.

[trogers]

so, holding a property in Bangkok is a losy deal in the coming years? isn't it?

Thirty years is the standard time frame used to calculate returns. Thereafter, it is primary residual land value for redevelopment.

[overherebc]

 

Chonburi is the same, so dont bring any extra weight from Bangkok please.Any expats cannot come if over 60 kilo

 

Me Sir, Me Sir, 57 kilo Sir, Can I stay Sir?

Love it!

Retirement visa conditions:

1) over 50

2) 800K in bank

3) 60KG and under

LOL, there won't be a lot of expats retiring to Thailand

[Remi080]

WOW awesome picture!!! Very cool, if we could give points from 1 tot 10 on this forum, i would give you 10 on that picture haha

[Bernard Flint]

they will have to, one day, move the capital somewhere else...

good for the elite that they own already all the land in the country, so they can only become more super rich & happy

Very soon Bangkok will be called Central Issan, for rice growing, due to loads of land and water. Just one thing, need to ban all the whitener cream that the Bangkok girls use.

[Bernard Flint]

WOW awesome picture!!! Very cool, if we could give points from 1 tot 10 on this forum, i would give you 10 on that picture haha

BRILLIANT, Love it

can u see that expat at the top shouting, wheres my porsche,and my 5 million a year job hahahahah. Then he finds out his university degree tilak ja has buggered off to Pattaya

Edited July 13, 2015 by Bernard Flint

[elgordo38]

So basiclly your advice is----- if buying a condo, make sure its on a higher floor....................

Don't pay extra for a unit higher up you could soon be at ground level. Chances are you will run out of water long before you sink. Also keep this in mind if your shopping for a luxury condo in Bangkok. If it has a pool chances are it will be empty in the future. We can do so many wonderful things today miracles almost but we cannot conserve or store water properly. It will truly be a miracle if we survive. I will be gone by then.

[bangsaenguy]

Reminds me of an old Paul Simon song: "slip sliding away".

Why?

[soalbundy]

Let it sink, as the old German saying goes, 'traveller's shouldn't be stopped on their journey'

[coulson]

Patrick Winn needs to get a bit of a grip on himself, making up numbers, quoting his own articles and other outdated sensationalism without any real facts or research, it's all just claims and wild assertions.

Tell you what Patrick, if it's 4 inches per year, BKK would already be under water............learn to proof what you write.

1st article - January 2010

http://www.hemispheresmagazine.com/2010/01/01/that-sinking-feeling/

2nd article - May 2010 (Patrick Winn)

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/thailand/090202/bangkok-sinking-1

3rd article - June 2015 - Bangkok Post - 1-2cm per year

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/general/598020/bangkok-is-sinking-fast-expert-warns

4th article - August 2011 (Patrick Winn)

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/thailand/110819/thailand-global-warming-water-bangkok-flooding-architecture

5th article - November 2011

http://cleantechnica.com/2011/11/25/bangkok-becomes-first-megacity-to-mull-move-to-higher-ground/

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The only research I have ever found credible and useful on the subject is from Panya Consultants, and similar data researched and published by Itthi Trisirisattayawong

''Land subsidence – a significant contributor to future flooding Although land subsidence is not driven by climate change, its impact on flooding in Bangkok needs to be considered for the 2050 simulations. The team undertook a comprehensive assessment of historic and forecasted land subsidence for Bangkok, and held technical consultations with the concerned agencies. Historic land subsidence in Bangkok has reduced from highs of 10 cm/year to 1 to 2 cm/year over the period of 1978 to 2007, and from 2002 to 2007 the rate had declined to 0.97 cm/year. The team predicted that due to government efforts to control groundwater pumping, the average subsidence rate would continue to decline by 10 percent/year, assuming that current efforts to reduce groundwater extraction continue. As a consequence, the team’s estimate of land subsidence by 2050 varied from 5 to 30 cm depending on the location. Figure 3.2 shows land elevations in 2002 versus projected land elevations in 2050 as a consequence of land subsidence.''

(panya consultants 2009)

Assoc Prof Itthi Trisirisattayawong, of the Faculty of Engineering, said the average sudsidence rate in Samut Prakan was around 10mm a year, but had reached 20.1mm, and even 28mm in areas connected to Thepharak and Srinakarin roads, and in the western parts of Bang Phli and Bang Bo districts.

In the north of Bangkok, areas along the Rangsit-Nakhon Nayok Road and branches of the Rangsit-Nakhon Nayok Canal in neighbouring Pathum Thani also faced subsidence of around 20-30mm per year - almost double the rate a decade ago. In neighbouring Samut Sakhon southwest of Bangkok, Itthi said affected areas included Om Noi, Omnai and - next to those areas - the Bangkok district of Nong Khaem.

(The nation - November 2013)

Edited July 13, 2015 by coulson

[Mot Dang]

It's not only Bangkok, but the Chao Praya basin which is sinking. Barriers have been in place in other parts of the world for years. London barrier is about 40 years old now, and still working well.

As everyone knows and possibly seen, central Sukhumvit floods badly when there is consistent heavy rains matched against a high tide. In the last 40 years a number of klongs leading away from Sukhumvit towards Klong Toey have been closed over, or filled in. Made matters worse didnt it ? I have lived on and off in Soi 22. Every year it floods. 35 years ago there was a klong that went up Soi 22 which drained it. Where Queen's Park Plaza is used to be a foul smelling swamp. And it was full of big ugly monitor lizards which came out and wandered around Soi 22 late at night. Quite a number of girls working in Soi Cowboy lived in Soi 22, and late at night when going home once they got near where the plaza is now, they used to run like hell up the road. Always fearing one of the lizards would cross their path.

[coulson]

Because of the sinking problem, Bangkok has imposed strict limits on pumping out groundwater. Naturally, those limits are mostly ignored and that is embarrassing so it's easier for the BMA to talk about the weight of buildings.

Ignored by the same people who impose them too........

500 groundwater wells to counter water crisis

BANGKOK: -- A SERIES of measures will be adopted to ensure that the country has enough water resources at least until April next year, including a provision for 500 groundwater wells in drought-hit provinces.

[Time Traveller]

Going, going, GONE.

it won't be missed.

[connda]

Keep putting more weight on it and it'll sink faster. If this was China, they'd have a 50 year plan and the move to a new capital would already be in the works. If this was the US. the folks on capitol hill can't plan out further out than 1 election cycle, so most DC residents would probably be issued inflatable life jackets to told to swim to safety once their neighborhood was underwater. I'm thinking the Thai government plans will revolve around a solution that make a small amount of people a massive amount of money, and will be implemented when the Chao Praya is covering Lumpini Park.

[connda]

Just to balance things out, today the Independent reported here that solar scientists believe there will be a mini ice age in 15 years. If this is true, the climate will be somewhat more temperate. There is also a plan for a Chinese firm to build a canal through the south of Thailand. So if a $3 billion seawall is all that's necessary to protect the capital as the article states (half of GDP), then Thailand's GDP may be higher in the future and the wall would be more affordable.

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Climate Denier!!! <Puut len - just kidding>. My name doesn't have the initials A.G. and I have no interesting in running a business that manages carbon credits (for a multi-billion dollar fee) for countries taxing the life out of their populations based on a well crafted propaganda movie that immediately appealed to the majority of the population whom study neither history nor have critical thinking skills, i.e., most everybody.

You obviously keep up with the solar cycle and the really steep decline in sunspot activity, and it's historical effect on weather patterns - e.g., The Maunder Minimum. So yeah, this place could easily become more temperate, and the three phase season cycle (hot, rain, cool) might actually change to something else.

On the flip side, maintaining Thai sovereignty might be a little dicey too when countries above, say, 50 degrees N latitude will be migrating south. Phuket/Pattaya may become a little more Russian than they currently are, Greece may become a great place to live, sub-Saharan Africa may become somewhat dominated by EU colonials again, an ain't nobody gonna be living on Greenland, but that's cycle has played out more than once in the last 3 thousand years. Lol. I hope I'm around to see it.

Edited July 13, 2015 by connda

[willyumiii]

Thais are very advanced intellectually and will follow the Dutch model and build steel dykes and a retainer wall. This will give Bangkok an additional 50 years.

So, is the Thai equivalent of the Dutch boy sticking his finger in the dyke sticking your finger in a ladyboy's hole, or would it be in the hole of a 'Tom"?

I am a little confused!

[willyumiii]

Thaivisa people, it's not possible to log in via Facebook anymore.

Anyway, 10mm is not 4 inches. Doomsday avoided.

Dag Ekeberg

Thaivisa people and rick44,

I just logged in via Facebook, no problem.

[willyumiii]

This explains Thailand recent push to purchase submarines!

[TPI]

Everybody just has to learn to swim!

[Jonmarleesco]

So basiclly your advice is----- if buying a condo, make sure its on a higher floor....................

Nah. Register it as a house. Subterranean, if possible.

[Smurkster]

Thais are very advanced intellectually and will follow the Dutch model and build steel dykes and a retainer wall. This will give Bangkok an additional 50 years.

what?