So is now the time to go and buy some gold?

[hugocnx]

I purchased gold 11 years ago, my bank looks after it for me and pays me Baht for the privilege of keeping it safe.

Buy it and forget about it, don't think of a quick term investment if you can afford it.

Why didn't you sell at 1800?

[chillywilly]

The gold price is manipulated to camouflage the deteriorating monetary system. Realistically, gold should be somewhere at 5.000 US$ right now if it were to reflect what truly is going on with the world's economy. Given the relatively small investment you want to make (100k Baht?) there is no use to buy gold hoping to make a big profit on it. You should buy gold only if you can afford to have it lying around in a safe place (not in a bank!!!) for a couple of years to use it after the world economy, respectively the monetary system has collapsed and gold standard is applied again. I believe we will see things coming that will supersede our worst nightmares. In that case, you could use gold to barter for food, diesel, etc... or to get a boat ticket out of here if the s hits the fan... But I'm just a penguin, what do I know?

Edited July 25, 2015 by chillywilly

[SGX]

http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/the-fall-of-gold

Hedge Funds Are Holding First-Ever Gold Net-Short Position

Hedge funds are holding the first ever bet on a decline in gold prices since the U.S. government started collecting the data in 2006.

The funds and other speculators shifted to a net-short position of 11,345 contracts in New York futures and options in the week ended July 21, according to figures from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Gold futures on Friday fell to the lowest since 2010 on the Comex, and the short wagers show investors expect the rout to deepen. Bullion has fallen almost every day in July, leaving the metal poised for the biggest monthly decline since June 2013.

“Undoubtedly, we’ve seen a sentiment shift in gold,” Dan Denbow, a portfolio manager at the $700 million USAA Precious Metals & Minerals Fund in San Antonio, said by phone. “Gold has a lack of enthusiasm.”

Prices are collapsing amid mounting speculation that U.S. interest rates will climb this year, curbing the appeal of bullion because it doesn’t pay interest like competing assets. At the same time, China bought less of the metal than analysts were expecting, and the dollar keeps getting stronger.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Jeffrey Currie says the worst is yet to come for gold, and that prices could fall below $1,000 an ounce for the first time since 2009. “The risks are clearly skewed to the downside,” Currie, the bank’s New York-based head of commodities research, said in a phone interview Tuesday.

Currie isn’t alone in predicting more declines. ABN Amro Bank NV’s Georgette Boele and Robin Bhar of Societe Generale AG say bullion will approach $1,000 by December.

Gold has led a retreat among raw materials, as the Bloomberg Commodity Index this week fell to a 13-year low. Lower prices are spurring suffering for miners. Shares of Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s largest producer, fell this week by the most since April 2013 in Toronto.

[Paul Laycock]

I think of the future I have responsibilities, why sell I won't be here for ever. As I first said don't buy for a short term fix.

Who needs the money when your gone? Son, wife etc.

[suzannegoh]

I purchased gold 11 years ago, my bank looks after it for me and pays me Baht for the privilege of keeping it safe.

Buy it and forget about it, don't think of a quick term investment if you can afford it.

Why didn't you sell at 1800?

Because anyone who said in 2011 that gold was going to go down and that the US Dollar would be the strongest major currency in the coming years would have been ridiculed and called a sheeple by his Libertarian friends.

[khunPer]

As investment gold is probably the worst to put money into...

Edit: After opening a business in Thailand (for quite a number of foreigners).

Edited July 25, 2015 by khunPer

[bazza40]

Prediction is $850/oz by end of year and will likely fall a lot further in 2016, possibly to $400/oz. Gold is a safe haven in time of crisis so wait for the next global stock market crash, which is likely to happen in 2019, then buy.

So what happens when the world wakes up to the fact the USA is technically insolvent? 17 trillion dollars of debt, a ruinously expensive "defence" expenditure, and a Red Queen's race with the Saudis, producing oil from a process demanding more and more capital. It's a game of pea and thimble.

Gold is not an investment. It gives no return in terms of income. It does, however, act as a currency hedge. I could equally predict in the event of the US dollar losing reserve currency status gold would go to $1800/oz - after all, it has been there before.

The other aspect to consider is gold value vs a specific currency - those buying gold in Australian dollars haven't done too badly.

Personally, I prefer platinum - think it's way undervalued, and supply is a lot tighter than gold.

[hugocnx]

Prediction is $850/oz by end of year and will likely fall a lot further in 2016, possibly to $400/oz. Gold is a safe haven in time of crisis so wait for the next global stock market crash, which is likely to happen in 2019, then buy.

So what happens when the world wakes up to the fact the USA is technically insolvent? 17 trillion dollars of debt, a ruinously expensive "defence" expenditure, and a Red Queen's race with the Saudis, producing oil from a process demanding more and more capital. It's a game of pea and thimble.

Gold is not an investment. It gives no return in terms of income. It does, however, act as a currency hedge. I could equally predict in the event of the US dollar losing reserve currency status gold would go to $1800/oz - after all, it has been there before.

The other aspect to consider is gold value vs a specific currency - those buying gold in Australian dollars haven't done too badly.

Personally, I prefer platinum - think it's way undervalued, and supply is a lot tighter than gold.

How can we believe this if you look at the kitco chart for platinum. Negative since the last 5 years.

Edited July 25, 2015 by hugocnx

[ggt]

Real precious metal...gold...is manipulated at the highest levels...to keep the perception that fiat currency...paper money...has real value...

When Olympians win...they do not give them paper money...they give them something that has withstood the test of time...

Precious metals are out of favor....at the moment...and powerful forces are keeping the price down to protect paper money...

When the tide turns...as world economies implode...paper money becomes less value...it will be too late to enter the gold market...it will move very quickly...the supply will dry up...and those holding precious metals will benefit from their patience...

Precious metals are an insurance policy against failed economic policies and over printing of paper money...

Gold is a solid investment...for the long run...

[Mickmick]

What I meant is, how much out of that 100.000 baht is labor (etc) cost?

In Europe that would be so much, that it makes no sense to buy jewelry for the gold content - yet many people do so.

Look at the difference in price between gold bars (no labour) and jewellery per baht weight :

The Gold Traders Association announced the buying price at 18,100 baht and the selling price at 18,200 baht per baht-weight for gold bars. For ornaments, the buying and selling prices were 17,843.32 baht and 18,600 baht per baht-weight (gold traders website)

So that is 400 baht difference in the selling price (less than 0.5% if my mental arithmetic is correct ) or 277 odd baht difference in the buying prices.

Or to look at it another way, 100 baht profit margin for the gold dealers between buying and selling gold bars, but 757 baht per baht weight for jewellery. Pretty obvious which you should buy for an investment, ......if you really wanted to buy gold for that purpose, not something I would do, better returns elsewhere.

[MyFriend You]

There is gold, and there is gold jewelry.

Does anyone have an estimate of how many baht worth of gold there is in say 100,000 baht of jewelry?

For sure, in Europe buying jewelry as an investment in gold would be ridiculous.

In the US gold bullion market, there isn't any differentiating between 22K or 24K gold - it sells the same. I bought Maple Leafs .999 for the same price as Peso coins at .975. But I agree, buying Gold Jewelry is a bad investment if you just want to inbvest for resale - buy gold bars or coins.

[nidieunimaitre]

What I meant is, how much out of that 100.000 baht is labor (etc) cost?

In Europe that would be so much, that it makes no sense to buy jewelry for the gold content - yet many people do so.

Look at the difference in price between gold bars (no labour) and jewellery per baht weight :

The Gold Traders Association announced the buying price at 18,100 baht and the selling price at 18,200 baht per baht-weight for gold bars. For ornaments, the buying and selling prices were 17,843.32 baht and 18,600 baht per baht-weight (gold traders website)

So that is 400 baht difference in the selling price (less than 0.5% if my mental arithmetic is correct ) or 277 odd baht difference in the buying prices.

Or to look at it another way, 100 baht profit margin for the gold dealers between buying and selling gold bars, but 757 baht per baht weight for jewellery. Pretty obvious which you should buy for an investment, ......if you really wanted to buy gold for that purpose, not something I would do, better returns elsewhere.

I am amazed that the difference is so small (in Thailand).

[ChrisY1]

There is gold, and there is gold jewelry.

Does anyone have an estimate of how many baht worth of gold there is in say 100,000 baht of jewelry?

For sure, in Europe buying jewelry as an investment in gold would be ridiculous.

Genuine Thai Jewelry is 96.5% pure. As of today's Gold Bullion Price your B100,000 worth of jewelry is 5.59 Baht (2.69 ounces of 0.08kgs)

What I meant is, how much out of that 100.000 baht is labor (etc) cost?

In Europe that would be so much, that it makes no sense to buy jewelry for the gold content - yet many people do so.

Just buy 96.5% bars here....jewelry is ~5% more

[Jonathon]

Gold is on it's way down. Bear mind too that THB against GBP has not quite returned to what it was several months ago. Then I was getting around 55 thb/gbp. When last I checked it was around 54. So still a long way to go until it drops to the 70 thb.gbp we saw before.

[Jonathon]

What I meant is, how much out of that 100.000 baht is labor (etc) cost?

In Europe that would be so much, that it makes no sense to buy jewelry for the gold content - yet many people do so.

Look at the difference in price between gold bars (no labour) and jewellery per baht weight :

The Gold Traders Association announced the buying price at 18,100 baht and the selling price at 18,200 baht per baht-weight for gold bars. For ornaments, the buying and selling prices were 17,843.32 baht and 18,600 baht per baht-weight (gold traders website)

So that is 400 baht difference in the selling price (less than 0.5% if my mental arithmetic is correct ) or 277 odd baht difference in the buying prices.

Or to look at it another way, 100 baht profit margin for the gold dealers between buying and selling gold bars, but 757 baht per baht weight for jewellery. Pretty obvious which you should buy for an investment, ......if you really wanted to buy gold for that purpose, not something I would do, better returns elsewhere.

I am amazed that the difference is so small (in Thailand).

Just reflects the labour cost here, jewelry manufacture (at least here) is quite labour intensive so a very big differnec from manufacture in our own countries.

[mikiea]

if you know not about paper gold , best you not even daydream about buying gold . it still has a down side before it will turn bullish . that's not my "opinion" that is they way it is , check out some graphs on gold sales . the reason it has value is because of its rarity , not so much now..... the market has been flooded by china , Greece , India , Russia ........ cash strapped governments' need them buckaroos .

[thrilled]

No one has A crystal ball. Maybe buy just 10% now.Wait and see if it goes down more.If so put in another 10-25%.You can keep on doing it as it goes down.It will only go down so much before every body and their brother, Russia,China and India buy as much as

They can get their hands on.Especially India.They love Gold.

[SheungWan]

No one has A crystal ball. Maybe buy just 10% now.Wait and see if it goes down more.If so put in another 10-25%.You can keep on doing it as it goes down.It will only go down so much before every body and their brother, Russia,China and India buy as much as

They can get their hands on.Especially India.They love Gold.

You might have said buy 10% wait and see and then another 10-25% if it goes down, at any point during the last 4/5 years and the result would have looked ugly. And then what? Again? That strategy clearly hasn't worked so are you saying keep buying into the down and effectively doubling down. Or, are you saying that you have resolutely advised against buying the last 4/5 years but now, now is the time to bite? All ears.

[orpheus454]

No, hedge funds have just gone net short on paper gold. Plenty of downside yet.

I play in these markets, and my own personal strategy is to wait for about 1040 and then sell December 800 puts for about $300 or so. (depends on how quickly it happens what you will get for an 800 December put). To win using this strategy gold must be above about 780 on Nov 24th, 2015. (770 is about BE point depending on commissions and actual premium collected,) In any case you can be well over 200 dollars too early and still make money.

Of course the OP probably is not interested in this kind of strategy,

No, and why would he?

You're suggesting that with a spot price of 1040 people are going to pay you 300 for the right to sell at 800 in December.

Why would they do that?

[gazzasore]

I feel it will drop further. The world is going through major changes in the monetary system. Gold may lose much of its value in backing currencies so also lose apparent value. I feel currency values are headed to being backed in other ways. Perhaps by % of world trade they maintain,or god forbid their oil reserve.. So gold can become a valued thing of the past.

You do know Richard Nixon took the Gold backing off the dollar back in 1971 dont you

[gazzasore]

The gold price is manipulated to camouflage the deteriorating monetary system. Realistically, gold should be somewhere at 5.000 US$ right now if it were to reflect what truly is going on with the world's economy. Given the relatively small investment you want to make (100k Baht?) there is no use to buy gold hoping to make a big profit on it. You should buy gold only if you can afford to have it lying around in a safe place (not in a bank!!!) for a couple of years to use it after the world economy, respectively the monetary system has collapsed and gold standard is applied again. I believe we will see things coming that will supersede our worst nightmares. In that case, you could use gold to barter for food, diesel, etc... or to get a boat ticket out of here if the s hits the fan... But I'm just a penguin, what do I know?

Correct

But you should also buy Silver

[gazzasore]

[gazzasore]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtYQrn3kQ6s

[whaleboneman]

Prediction is $850/oz by end of year and will likely fall a lot further in 2016, possibly to $400/oz. Gold is a safe haven in time of crisis so wait for the next global stock market crash, which is likely to happen in 2019, then buy.

What crystal ball are you gazing into?

[PCA]

The gold price is manipulated to camouflage the deteriorating monetary system. Realistically, gold should be somewhere at 5.000 US$ right now if it were to reflect what truly is going on with the world's economy. Given the relatively small investment you want to make (100k Baht?) there is no use to buy gold hoping to make a big profit on it. You should buy gold only if you can afford to have it lying around in a safe place (not in a bank!!!) for a couple of years to use it after the world economy, respectively the monetary system has collapsed and gold standard is applied again. I believe we will see things coming that will supersede our worst nightmares. In that case, you could use gold to barter for food, diesel, etc... or to get a boat ticket out of here if the s hits the fan... But I'm just a penguin, what do I know?

Correct

But you should also buy Silver

silver well if you think (I don't) metals are going to rise again soon then ok but gold please don't touch it as a fresh investment and derive reflections to the world economy or monetary system in terms of being secured in any way. Certainly the world economy is in a very desperate situation and there will be a lot of wash outs. We are overpopulated, not enough lids for the number of pots. Apples and Facebooks are leading the downtrend in human behavior and common sense.

[whaleboneman]

buy food and/or water.....guaranteed to appreciate over time

Want to buy some cheap rice?

[MW72]

Prediction is $850/oz by end of year and will likely fall a lot further in 2016, possibly to $400/oz. Gold is a safe haven in time of crisis so wait for the next global stock market crash, which is likely to happen in 2019, then buy.

Surely waiting for the next crisis will be too late. If everyone rushes to gold as a safe haven then the price will soar with demand. The trick will be to buy just before the crash when the price is rock bottom and then to sell when the price soars.

Anyone got a crystal ball so I can see when the next crash will be?

[MW72]

The gold price is manipulated to camouflage the deteriorating monetary system. Realistically, gold should be somewhere at 5.000 US$ right now if it were to reflect what truly is going on with the world's economy. Given the relatively small investment you want to make (100k Baht?) there is no use to buy gold hoping to make a big profit on it. You should buy gold only if you can afford to have it lying around in a safe place (not in a bank!!!) for a couple of years to use it after the world economy, respectively the monetary system has collapsed and gold standard is applied again. I believe we will see things coming that will supersede our worst nightmares. In that case, you could use gold to barter for food, diesel, etc... or to get a boat ticket out of here if the s hits the fan... But I'm just a penguin, what do I know?

Correct

But you should also buy Silver

I have one problem with silver. I have bought a little bit over the last 6 months. I buy mine in the UK and I get charged VAT so I am immediately paying over the odds so the government can have a cut. There is also the sheer bulk of the stuff. If you were going to invest some serious money just to get a decent price near the market rate then you are gonna need some serious storage facility. Do you really trust the banks to look after it for you or trust a bit of paper if you don't buy the physical item?

On the plus side if the currency markets ever collapse then silver has always been the poor man's currency. You can imagine trading a 1/10th ounce or 3 grams of silver for some goods at a market but gold is way too valuable for every day exchanges.

[pacovl46]

Gold is a long time investment! If you look at the gold price over the last several hundred years you'll find it increased its value bit by bit, of course there's ups and downs, but overall it increased.

[Shiver]

If you look at price over the long term, it seems to me that it's a form of protection against market movements, and not a way to make money (unless you can trade the swings, which I'm not skilled in the art of)..

Personally I wouldn't buy at these prices and would wait a year or two, but that's just opinion.

What is your timeframe?

I like cryptos better for a bit of action, but it's not everyone's cup of tea.